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Search indexed NASA NTRS and DOE OSTI research on propulsion, heat transfer, battery materials and energy systems. Follow report and document links to the original sources.

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At least 73 records · Page 4

A resource adequacy assessment of correlated wide-area outages in the power grid

As the power grid is undergoing rapid transformations, numerous questions are emerging about its vulnerability to wide-area extreme events (WAEE), which could influence its operations. Relatively few analyses have been conducted to date regarding the impact of correlated outages during WAEEs on the grid’s ability to balance resources with demand. This study addresses this gap by conducting a resource adequacy analysis for a hurricane-inspired WAEE on a 2035 synthetic power grid system for the United States. A sensitivity analysis was also conducted to characterize the relative impact of weather on unserved energy. Our results indicate that although the magnitude and duration of the shortfalls vary depending on weather conditions, persistent shortfalls are observed in some regions. Initial explorations indicate a strong correlation between transmission-constrained regions and regions with persistent shortfalls. Future work could generate empirically-grounded representations for generator outages as well as conduct causal analyses of these shortfalls to improve understanding of drivers as well as possible mitigation strategies. Continued exploration of extreme weather impacts on the grid is important to develop more robust understanding of the reliability and resilience of our power systems, especially as they undergo rapid transformations.

24 POWER TRANSMISSION AND DISTRIBUTION↗

Inhibition of USP7 activity selectively eliminates senescent cells in part via restoration of p53 activity

The accumulation of senescent cells (SnCs) is a causal factor of various age-related diseases as well as some of the side effects of chemotherapy. Pharmacological elimination of SnCs (senolysis) has the potential to be developed into novel therapeutic strategies to treat these diseases and pathological conditions. Here we show that ubiquitin-specific peptidase 7 (USP7) is a novel target for senolysis because inhibition of USP7 with an inhibitor or genetic depletion of USP7 by RNA interference induces apoptosis selectively in SnCs. The senolytic activity of USP7 inhibitors is likely attributable in part to the promotion of the human homolog of mouse double minute 2 (MDM2) ubiquitination and degradation by the ubiquitin–proteasome system. This degradation increases the levels of p53, which in turn induces the pro-apoptotic proteins PUMA, NOXA, and FAS and inhibits the interaction of BCL-XL and BAK to selectively induce apoptosis in SnCs. Further, we show that treatment with a USP7 inhibitor can effectively eliminate SnCs and suppress the senescence-associated secretory phenotype (SASP) induced by doxorubicin in mice. These findings suggest that small molecule USP7 inhibitors are novel senolytics that can be exploited to reduce chemotherapy-induced toxicities and treat age-related diseases.

59 BASIC BIOLOGICAL SCIENCES↗

Insights into Prismatic Loop Formation in Irradiated Fe–Cr Alloys from Hypothesis-Driven Active Learning and Causal Analysis

Neutron and electron irradiation experimental studies conducted on body-centered cubic Fe and Fe–Cr alloys have established two prismatic dislocation loop populations, which have Burgers vectors of either a/2$\langle$111$\rangle$ or a$\langle$100$\rangle$. Here, the loop formation depends on factors such as dose (D), dose rate (D rt ), temperature (T), chromium content (Cr%), and other alloying elements. Hence, it is important to understand how irradiation-induced dislocation loops evolve conditional upon the loop characteristics, such as loop density (DD), average loop size d̅, and irradiation parameters (D, D rt , T, and irradiation type), which is still an active area of research. To understand these complex structure–property relationships, machine learning (ML) is employed in a three-step approach. This includes imputing missing data with a k-nearest neighbor, generating functionalized features, and assessing feature importance with random forest classification and regression. Physics-based features are incorporated in a hypothesis-driven active learning scheme to overcome data unavailability challenges. Insights obtained from ML models (i) to categorize dislocation loop types, show the highest correlation with d̅; (ii) Log(DD), obtained through mathematical formulations involving D, Cr%, d̅, and T (e.g., Log(DD) ~ D + exp(-Cr%) + 1/d̅ and log(DD) ~ D + exp(-Cr%) + 1/T). Hypothesis-driven active learning is able to predict Log(DD) in which the experimental date is not known. Causal models verify cause–effect relationships for dislocation loop classification and irradiation factors in FeCr alloys.

70 PLASMA PHYSICS AND FUSION TECHNOLOGY↗

Thermodynamics–Structure–Dynamics Correlations and Nonuniversal Effects in the Elastically Collective Activated Hopping Theory of Glass-Forming Liquids

We employ the microscopic Elastically Collective Nonlinear Langevin Equation (ECNLE) theory of activated dynamics in combination with crystal-avoiding simulations to study four inter-related questions for metastable monodisperse hard sphere fluids. The first is how significantly improved integral equation theory structural input (Modified-Verlet (MV) closure) changes the dynamical predictions of ECNLE theory. The main consequence is a modest enhancement of the importance of the collective elastic barrier relative to its local cage contribution, which increases the alpha relaxation time and fragility relative to prior results based on the Percus–Yevick closure. Second, ECNLE-MV theory predictions for the alpha time and self-diffusion constant in the metastable regime are quantitatively compared to our new simulations. The small adjustment of a numerical prefactor that enters the collective elastic barrier leads to quantitative agreement over three decades. Third, using the more accurate MV structural input, ECNLE theory is shown to predict thermodynamics–structure–dynamics “correlations” based on various long and short wavelength scalar properties all related to static two-point collective density fluctuations. The logarithm of the alpha relaxation time scales as a power law with these scalar metrics with an exponent that is significantly lower in the less dense noncooperative activated regime compared to the very dense highly cooperative regime. However, the discovered correlation of activated relaxation with a thermodynamic property (dimensionless compressibility) is not causal in ECNLE theory, but rather reflects a strong connection between the local structural quantities that quantify kinetic constraints in the theory with the amplitude of long wavelength density fluctuations. Fourth, the consequences of chemically specific nonuniversalities associated with the onset condition and relative importance of collective elasticity are studied. In conclusion, the predicted thermodynamics–structure–dynamics correlations are found to be robust, albeit with nontrivial shifts of the onset condition.

37 INORGANIC, ORGANIC, PHYSICAL, AND ANALYTICAL CH↗

The complex polyploid genome architecture of sugarcane

Sugarcane, the world’s most harvested crop by tonnage, has shaped global history, trade and geopolitics, and is currently responsible for 80% of sugar production worldwide. While traditional sugarcane breeding methods have effectively generated cultivars adapted to new environments and pathogens, sugar yield improvements have recently plateaued. The cessation of yield gains may be due to limited genetic diversity within breeding populations, long breeding cycles and the complexity of its genome, the latter preventing breeders from taking advantage of the recent explosion of whole-genome sequencing that has benefited many other crops. Thus, modern sugarcane hybrids are the last remaining major crop without a reference-quality genome. Here we take a major step towards advancing sugarcane biotechnology by generating a polyploid reference genome for R570, a typical modern cultivar derived from interspecific hybridization between the domesticated species (Saccharum officinarum) and the wild species (Saccharum spontaneum). In contrast to the existing single haplotype (‘monoploid’) representation of R570, our 8.7 billion base assembly contains a complete representation of unique DNA sequences across the approximately 12 chromosome copies in this polyploid genome. Using this highly contiguous genome assembly, we filled a previously unsized gap within an R570 physical genetic map to describe the likely causal genes underlying the single-copy Bru1 brown rust resistance locus. This polyploid genome assembly with fine-grain descriptions of genome architecture and molecular targets for biotechnology will help accelerate molecular and transgenic breeding and adaptation of sugarcane to future environmental conditions.

59 BASIC BIOLOGICAL SCIENCES↗

Defining the scope for altering rice leaf anatomy to improve photosynthesis: a modelling approach

Summary Leaf structure plays an important role in photosynthesis. However, the causal relationship and the quantitative importance of any single structural parameter to the overall photosynthetic performance of a leaf remains open to debate. In this paper, we report on a mechanistic model, eLeaf, which successfully captures rice leaf photosynthetic performance under varying environmental conditions of light and CO 2 . We developed a 3D reaction‐diffusion model for leaf photosynthesis parameterised using a range of imaging data and biochemical measurements from plants grown under ambient and elevated CO 2 and then interrogated the model to quantify the importance of these elements. The model successfully captured leaf‐level photosynthetic performance in rice. Photosynthetic metabolism underpinned the majority of the increased carbon assimilation rate observed under elevated CO 2 levels, with a range of structural elements making positive and negative contributions. Mesophyll porosity could be varied without any major outcome on photosynthetic performance, providing a theoretical underpinning for experimental data. eLeaf allows quantitative analysis of the influence of morphological and biochemical properties on leaf photosynthesis. The analysis highlights a degree of leaf structural plasticity with respect to photosynthesis of significance in the context of attempts to improve crop photosynthesis.

59 BASIC BIOLOGICAL SCIENCES↗

Convoluted filtering for process cycle modeling

Principles of materials science and engineering, physics, mathematics, and information science are used to extract knowledge and insights from the process-structure–property-performance relationships hidden in materials data. The process-structure modeling can be accelerated without loss of interpretability, with artificial intelligence tools that mimic the salient features of the process and process-structure relations. In this work, a novel convoluted model-filtering technique was exploited to build and successfully train the Convoluted Filter (CoFi) artifacts for Fe-based alloy heat treatment cycles. The artifacts were pre-trained to filter out deep models that change the surrogate microstructure state after the heat treatment at ambient conditions. Direct representation of the thermal cycle features within knowledge Graph facilitated development of meaningful data models for microstructure evolution, which reduce overfitting to limited datasets.

36 MATERIALS SCIENCE↗

Astrophysical Equation-of-State Constraints on the Color-Superconducting Gap

We demonstrate that astrophysical constraints on the dense-matter equation of state place an upper bound on the color-superconducting gap in dense matter above the transition from nuclear matter to quark matter. Pairing effects in the color-flavor locked quark matter phase increase the pressure at high density, and if this effect is sufficiently large then the requirements of causality and mechanical stability make it impossible to reach such a pressure in a way that is consistent with what is known at lower densities. The intermediate-density equation of state is inferred by considering extensions of chiral effective field theory to neutron star densities, and conditioning these using current astrophysical observations of neutron star radius, maximum mass, and tidal deformability (PSR J⁢0348+0432, PSR J1624-2230, PSR J⁢0740+6620, GW170817). At baryon number chemical potential μ = 2.6 GeV we find a 95% upper limit on the color-flavor locked pairing gap Δ of 457 MeV using overly conservative assumptions and 216 MeV with more reasonable assumptions. Furthermore, this constraint may be strengthened by future astrophysical measurements as well as by future advances in high-density QCD calculations.

75 CONDENSED MATTER PHYSICS, SUPERCONDUCTIVITY AND↗

Opportunistic experiments to constrain aerosol effective radiative forcing

Aerosol–cloud interactions (ACIs) are considered to be the most uncertain driver of present-day radiative forcing due to human activities. The nonlinearity of cloud-state changes to aerosol perturbations make it challenging to attribute causality in observed relationships of aerosol radiative forcing. Using correlations to infer causality can be challenging when meteorological variability also drives both aerosol and cloud changes independently. Natural and anthropogenic aerosol perturbations from well-defined sources provide “opportunistic experiments” (also known as natural experiments) to investigate ACI in cases where causality may be more confidently inferred. These perturbations cover a wide range of locations and spatiotemporal scales, including point sources such as volcanic eruptions or industrial sources, plumes from biomass burning or forest fires, and tracks from individual ships or shipping corridors. We review the different experimental conditions and conduct a synthesis of the available satellite datasets and field campaigns to place these opportunistic experiments on a common footing, facilitating new insights and a clearer understanding of key uncertainties in aerosol radiative forcing. Cloud albedo perturbations are strongly sensitive to background meteorological conditions. Strong liquid water path increases due to aerosol perturbations are largely ruled out by averaging across experiments. Opportunistic experiments have significantly improved process-level understanding of ACI, but it remains unclear how reliably the relationships found can be scaled to the global level, thus demonstrating a need for deeper investigation in order to improve assessments of aerosol radiative forcing and climate change.

37 INORGANIC, ORGANIC, PHYSICAL, AND ANALYTICAL CH↗

Laboratory measurements of the physics of auroral electron acceleration by Alfvén waves

While the aurora has attracted attention for millennia, important questions remain unanswered. Foremost is how auroral electrons are accelerated before colliding with the ionosphere and producing auroral light. Powerful Alfvén waves are often found traveling Earthward above auroras with sufficient energy to generate auroras, but there has been no direct measurement of the processes by which Alfvén waves transfer their energy to auroral electrons. Here, we show laboratory measurements of the resonant transfer of energy from Alfvén waves to electrons under conditions relevant to the auroral zone. Experiments are performed by launching Alfvén waves and simultaneously recording the electron velocity distribution. Numerical simulations and analytical theory support that the measured energy transfer process produces accelerated electrons capable of reaching auroral energies. The experiments, theory, and simulations demonstrate a clear causal relationship between Alfvén waves and accelerated electrons that directly cause auroras.

70 PLASMA PHYSICS AND FUSION TECHNOLOGY↗

Physics of the Aurora: Laboratory Measurements of Electron Acceleration by Inertial Alfven Waves (Final Technical Report)

The physics of the aurora is one of the foremost unsolved problems of space physics. The mechanisms responsible for accelerating electrons that precipitate onto the ionosphere are not fully understood. For more than three decades, particle interactions with Alfven waves have been proposed as a possible means for accelerating electrons and generating auroras. Due to the limitations of spacecraft conjunction studies and other multi-spacecraft approaches, it is unlikely that it will ever be possible, through spacecraft observations alone, to confirm definitively the proposed electron acceleration mechanism by making simultaneous measurements of both the accelerated electrons and the inertial Alfven wave responsible for the acceleration. Here, we show laboratory measurements of the resonant transfer of energy from Alfven waves to electrons under conditions relevant to the auroral zone. Experiments are performed by launching Alfven waves and simultaneously recording the electron velocity distribution. Numerical simulations and analytical theory support that the measured energy transfer process produces accelerated electrons capable of reaching auroral energies. The experiments, theory, and simulations demonstrate a clear causal relationship between Alfven waves and accelerated electrons that directly cause auroras.

70 PLASMA PHYSICS AND FUSION TECHNOLOGY↗

Reimagining full wave rf quasilinear theory in a tokamak

The velocity dependent resonant interaction of particles with applied radiofrequency (rf) waves during heating and current drive in the presence of pitch angle scattering collisions gives rise to narrow collisional velocity space boundary layers that dramatically enhance the role of collisions as recently shown by Catto ( J. Plasma Phys. , vol. 86, 2020, 815860302). The behaviour is a generalization of the narrow collisional boundary layer that forms during Landau damping as found by Johnston ( Phys. Fluids , vol. 14, 1971, pp. 2719–2726) and Auerbach ( Phys. Fluids , vol. 20, 1977, pp. 1836–1844). For a wave of parallel wave number ${k_{||}}$ interacting with weakly collisional plasma species of collision frequency $\nu$ and thermal speed ${v_{\textrm{th}}}$ , the effective collision frequency becomes of order $\nu {({k_{||}}{v_{th}}/\nu )^{2/3}} \gg \nu $ . The narrow boundary layers that arise because of the diffusive nature of the collisions allow a physically meaningful wave–particle interaction time to be defined that is the inverse of this effective collision frequency. The collisionality implied by the narrow boundary layer results in changes in the standard quasilinear treatment of applied rf fields in tokamaks while remaining consistent with causality. These changes occur because successive poloidal interactions with the rf are correlated in tokamak geometry and because the resonant velocity space dependent interactions are controlled by the spatial and temporal behaviour of the perturbed full wave fields rather than just the spatially local Landau and Doppler shifted cyclotron wave–particle resonance condition associated with unperturbed motion of the particles. The correlation of successive poloidal circuits of the tokamak leads to the appearance in the quasilinear operator of transit averaged resonance conditions localized in velocity space boundary layers that maintain negative definite entropy production.

Physics↗

Causal Interactions between Southern Ocean Polynyas and High-Latitude Atmosphere–Ocean Variability

Abstract Weddell Sea open-ocean polynyas have been observed to occasionally release heat from the deep ocean to the atmosphere, indicating that their sporadic appearances may be an important feature of high-latitude atmosphere–ocean variability. Yet, observations of the phenomenon are sparse and many standard-resolution models represent these features poorly, if at all. We use a fully coupled, synoptic-scale preindustrial control simulation of the Energy Exascale Earth System Model (E3SMv0-HR) to effectively simulate open-ocean polynyas and investigate their role in the climate system. Our approach employs statistical tests of Granger causality to diagnose local and remote drivers of, and responses to, polynya heat loss on interannual to decadal time scales. First, we find that polynya heat loss Granger causes a persistent increase in surface air temperature over the Weddell Sea, strengthening the local cyclonic wind circulation. Along with responding to polynyas, atmospheric conditions also facilitate their development. When the Southern Ocean experiences a rapid poleward shift in the circumpolar westerlies following a prolonged negative phase of the southern annular mode (SAM), Weddell Sea salinity increases, promoting density destratification and convection in the water column. Finally, we find that the reduction of surface heat fluxes during periods of full ice cover is not fully compensated by ocean heat transport into the high latitudes. This imbalance leads to a buildup of ocean heat content that supplies polynya heat loss. These results disentangle the complex, coupled climate processes that both enable the polynya’s existence and respond to it, providing insights to improve the representation of these highly episodic sea ice features in climate models.

Kaufman, Zachary S.↗

Reimagining full wave rf quasilinear theory in a tokamak

The velocity dependent resonant interaction of particles with applied radio frequency (rf) waves during heating and current drive in the presence of pitch angle scattering collisions gives rise to narrow collisional velocity space boundary layers that dramatically enhance the role of collisions as recently shown by Catto (J. Plasma Phys., vol. 86, 815860302, 2020). The behavior is a generalization of the narrow collisional boundary layer that forms during Landau damping as found by Johnston (Phys. Fluids, vol. 14, 1971, pp. 2719-2726) and Auerbach (Phys. Fluids, vol. 20, 1977, pp. 1836-1844). For a wave of parallel wave number k|| interacting with weakly collisional plasma species of collision frequency ν and thermal speed vth , the effective collision frequency becomes of order ν(k_||v_th /ν)^2/3>> ν . The narrow boundary layers that arise because of the diffusive nature of the collisions allows a physically meaningful wave-particle interaction time to be defined that is the inverse of this effective collision frequency. The collisionality implied by the narrow boundary layer results in changes in the standard quasilinear treatment of applied rf fields in tokamaks while remaining consistent with causality. These changes occur because successive poloidal interactions with the rf are correlated in tokamak geometry and because the resonant velocity space dependent interactions are controlled by the spatial and temporal behavior of the perturbed full wave fields rather than just the spatially local Landau and Doppler shifted cyclotron wave-particle resonance condition associated with unperturbed motion of the particles. The correlation of successive poloidal circuits of the tokamak leads to the appearance in the quasilinear operator of transit averaged resonance conditions localized in velocity space boundary layers that maintain negative definite entropy production.

70 PLASMA PHYSICS AND FUSION TECHNOLOGY↗

Empirical Dynamic Modeling Reveals Complexity of Methane Fluxes in a Temperate Salt Marsh

Abstract Methane dynamics within salt marshes are complex because vegetation types, temperature, oscillating water levels, and changes in salinity and redox conditions influence CH 4 production, consumption, oxidation, and emissions. These non‐linear and complex interactions among variables affect the traditionally expected functional relationships and present challenges for interpreting and developing process‐based models. We employed empirical dynamic modeling (EDM) and convergent cross mapping (CCM) as a novel approach for characterizing seasonal/multiday and diurnal CH 4 dynamics by inferring causal variables, lags, and interconnections among multiple biophysical variables within a temperate salt marsh using 5 years of eddy covariance data. EDM/CCM is a nonparametric approach capable of quantifying the coupling between variables while determining time scales where variable interactions are the most relevant. We found that gross primary productivity, tidal creek dissolved oxygen, and temperature were important for seasonal/multiday dynamics (rho = 0.73–0.80), while water level was most important for diurnal dynamics during both the growing and dormancy phenoperiods (rho = 0.72 and 0.56, respectively). Lags for the top‐ranked variables (i.e., gross primary productivity, dissolved oxygen, temperature, water level) occurred between 1 and 5 weeks at the seasonal scale and 1–24 hr at the diurnal scale. The EDM had high prediction capabilities for intra‐/inter‐seasonal patterns and annual CH 4 sums but had limitations in representing large, infrequent fluxes. Results highlight the importance of non‐linearity, drivers, lag times, and interconnections among multiple biophysical variables that regulate CH 4 fluxes in tidal wetlands. This research introduces a novel approach to examining CH 4 fluxes, which will aid in evaluating current paradigms in wetlands and other ecosystems.

Environmental Sciences & Ecology↗

Stability analysis of WEST L-mode discharges with improved confinement from boron powder injection

WEST L-mode plasmas with dominant electron heating and no core torque source have observed improvements in confinement during boron (B) powder injection. These results are reminiscent of previous powder injection experiments on other devices and gaseous impurity seeding experiments on WEST. During powder injection, the stored energy increased up to 25% due to enhanced ion and electron heat and particle confinement. The improvements in confinement were not indicative of an L-H transition. To identify the dominant mechanisms and the causality chain behind these improvements in confinement, we employ interpretative modeling using METIS, predictive integrated modeling using a high-fidelity plasma simulator (HFPS), and stand-alone gyrokinetic simulations using quasi-linear gyrokinetic code. Interpretative modeling with METIS allowed for the estimation of missing data while maintaining good overall consistency with experiment. These results provided the initial conditions for fully predictive flux driven simulations using the HFPS. From these simulations, quasi-linear gyrokinetic analysis was performed at ρ = 0.5 and ρ = 0.65. Collisionality was found to be a strong candidate for the turbulence suppression mechanism at ρ = 0.5, while a combination of collisionality and the T e /T i ratio was found to be the likely mechanism at ρ = 0.65. The results additionally suggested that increased Z eff (through main ion dilution) could play a role in the improved confinement, but this could not be confirmed due to a lack of experimental measurements. The modeling framework established here can now be used to evaluate and exploit a variety of future powder injection experiments.

70 PLASMA PHYSICS AND FUSION TECHNOLOGY↗

Rindler fluids from gravitational shockwaves

We study a correspondence between gravitational shockwave geometry and its fluid description near a Rindler horizon in Minkowski spacetime. Utilizing the Petrov classification that describes algebraic symmetries for Lorentzian spaces, we establish an explicit mapping between a potential fluid and the shockwave metric perturbation, where the Einstein equation for the shockwave geometry is equivalent to the incompressibility condition of the fluid, augmented by a shockwave source. Then we consider an Ansatz of a stochastic quantum source for the potential fluid, which has the physical interpretation of shockwaves created by vacuum energy fluctuations. Under such circumstance, the Einstein equation, or equivalently, the incompressibility condition for the fluid, becomes a stochastic differential equation. By smearing the quantum source on a stretched horizon in a Lorentz invariant manner with a Planckian width (similarly to the membrane paradigm), we integrate fluctuations near the Rindler horizon to find an accumulated effect of the variance in the round-trip time of a photon traversing the horizon of a causal diamond.

72 PHYSICS OF ELEMENTARY PARTICLES AND FIELDS↗

Multisource Data Fusion Outage Location in Distribution Systems via Probabilistic Graphical Models

Efficient outage location is critical to enhancing the resilience of power distribution systems. However, accurate outage location requires combining massive evidence received from diverse data sources, including smart meter (SM) last gasp signals, customer trouble calls, social media messages, weather data, vegetation information, and physical parameters of the network. This is a computationally complex task due to the high dimensionality of data in distribution grids. In this paper, we propose a multi-source data fusion approach to locate outage events in partially observable distribution systems using Bayesian networks (BNs). A novel aspect of the proposed approach is that it takes multi-source evidence and the complex structure of distribution systems into account using a probabilistic graphical method. Our method can radically reduce the computational complexity of outage location inference in high-dimensional spaces. The graphical structure of the proposed BN is established based on the network’s topology and the causal relationship between random variables, such as the states of branches/customers and evidence. Utilizing this graphical model, accurate outage locations are obtained by leveraging a Gibbs sampling (GS) method, to infer the probabilities of de-energization for all branches. Compared with commonly-used exact inference methods that have exponential complexity in the size of the BN, GS quantifies the target conditional probability distributions in a timely manner. As a result, a case study of several real-world distribution systems is presented to validate the proposed method.

24 POWER TRANSMISSION AND DISTRIBUTION↗