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NASA NTRS1998

Constraint-Free Theories of Gravitation

Lovelock actions (more precisely, extended Gauss-Bonnet forms) when varied as Cartan forms on subspaces of higher dimensional flat Riemannian manifolds, generate well set, causal exterior differential systems. In particular, the Einstein- Hilbert action 4-form, varied on a 4 dimensional subspace of E(sub 10) yields a well set generalized theory of gravity having no constraints. Rcci-flat solutions are selected by initial conditions on a bounding 3-space.

Estabrook, Frank B.↗

NASA NTRS2014

Climate Change and Vector Borne Diseases on NASA Langley Research Center

Increasing global temperature, weather patterns with above average storm intensities, and higher sea levels have been identified as phenomena associated with global climate change. As a causal system, climate change could contribute to vector borne diseases in humans. Vectors of concern originate from the vicinity of Langley Research Center include mosquitos and ticks that transmit disease that originate regionally, nationwide, or from outside the US. Recognizing changing conditions, vector borne diseases propagate under climate change conditions, and understanding the conditions in which they may exist or propagate, presents opportunities for monitoring their progress and mitigating their potential impacts through communication, continued monitoring, and adaptation. Personnel comprise a direct and fundamental support to NASA mission success, continuous and improved understanding of climatic conditions, and the resulting consequence of disease from these conditions, helps to reduce risk in terrestrial space technologies, ground operations, and space research. This research addresses conditions which are attributed to climatic conditions which promote environmental conditions conducive to the increase of disease vectors. This investigation includes evaluation of local mosquito population count and rainfall data for statistical correlation and identification of planning recommendations unique to LaRC, other NASA Centers to assess adaptation approaches, Center-level planning strategies.

Cole, Stuart K.↗

NASA NTRS1995

The latitudinal distribution of magnetic holes in the solar wind

A large number of magnetic holes have been found in the Ulysses data during its cruise in the ecliptic. They are interpreted as convecting structures, probably caused by the mirror instability which exists in high beta plasmas with anisotropic temperatures. The characteristics of the holes reflect the solar wind condition of the region in which the holes are formed, and the point of observation may be far removed from where the instability occurs. A preliminary survey appears to indicate that the number of holes has no significant radial dependence. However, the number of holes does appear to increase with increasing heliographic latitude. Yet the large scale solar wind structures with their compression regions disappeared at approximately 57 deg south latitude. Thus any causal relationship between the holes and large scale solar wind structures is questionable. The temperature anisotropy and high beta required by the mirror instability must be generated by other mechanisms. In order to tie the magnetic holes and the mirror instability to their cause, the evolution of their characteristics with heliocentric distance and latitude needs to be investigated. With the progression of Ulysses around the sun a survey will be conducted to ascertain the characteristics of the magnetic holes as a function of heliographic latitude and heliocentric distance. A comparison of the results with the solar wind conditions may lead to the identification of the magnetic hole generating mechanism(s).

Winterhalter, D.↗

NASA NTRS1996

Effects of plasmaspheric ion heating due to ionospheric and magnetospheric sources

In an initial study, the He(+) observations from the Retarding Ion Mass Spectrometer on Dynamics Explorer 1 (RIMS/DE 1) was examined for more than 120 transits of the plasmasphere in the fall of 1981. The He(+) to H(+) ratio was determined as it varied spatially over portions of the DE 1 orbit, and its variation with solar and magnetic activities and with local time, focusing specifically on the inner plasmasphere. These variations were compared along the L = 2 field line with calculations made by the Field Line Interhemispheric Plasma (FLIP) code. In a recently submitted paper, the He(+) to H(+) density ratio was examined for all the available data from 1981 to 1984 from the RIMS on DE 1. There are two basic characteristics of the ratio: one is that the ratio decreases with radial distance in the plasmasphere, and the other is the strong dependence of the density ratio on solar activity. In addition to the He(+)/H(+) ratio research, a phenomenon has been studied in the topside ionosphere which relates to the thermal coupling of the ionosphere to the plasmasphere. There is little or no correlation with magnetic and solar activity here. Another study has been directed toward the relation of plasma properties to the density gradients forming the plasmapause. The study has followed a two-pronged approach. First, the observations have been analyzed to determine what happens to the plasma properties across these boundary layers (density gradients). Second, comparisons were made with FLIP model calculations to determine how well the model is able to treat these conditions. Among the significant lessons learned in these studies are two that bear directly on the direction of future investigations in this area. First, composition cannot be viewed independently of thermal structure. Second, solar and magnetic activity effects are real; but the causal relationship between activity and effects is frequently quite complicated because several different processes appear to be operating in different ways and on different time scales. Under these circumstances, large correlation coefficients should not be expected and are not generally found.

Comfort, Richard H.↗

NASA NTRS1994

From conditional oughts to qualitative decision theory

The primary theme of this investigation is a decision theoretic account of conditional ought statements (e.g., 'You ought to do A, if C') that rectifies glaring deficiencies in classical deontic logic. The resulting account forms a sound basis for qualitative decision theory, thus providing a framework for qualitative planning under uncertainty. In particular, we show that adding causal relationships (in the form of a single graph) as part of an epistemic state is sufficient to facilitate the analysis of action sequences, their consequences, their interaction with observations, their expected utilities, and the synthesis of plans and strategies under uncertainty.

Pearl, Judea↗

NASA NTRS2022

Opportunistic Experiments to Constrain Aerosol Effective Radiative Forcing

Aerosol-cloud interactions (ACI) are considered to be the most uncertain driver of present-day radiative forcing due to human activities. The non-linearity of cloud-state changes to aerosol perturbations make it challenging to attribute causality in observed relationships of aerosol radiative forcing. Using correlations to infer causality can be challenging when meteorological variability also drives both aerosol and cloud changes independently. Natural and anthropogenic aerosol perturbations from well defined sources provide ‘opportunistic experiments’ (also known as natural experiments) to investigate ACI in cases where causality may be more confidently inferred. These perturbations cover a wide range of locations and spatio-temporal scales, including point sources such as volcanic eruptions or industrial sources, plumes from biomass burning or forest fires, and tracks from individual ships or shipping corridors.We review the different experimental conditions and conduct a synthesis of the available satellite data sets and field campaigns to place these opportunistic experiments on a common footing, facilitating new insights and a clearer understanding of key uncertainties in aerosol radiative forcing. Cloud albedo perturbations are strongly sensitive to background meteorological conditions. Strong liquid water path increases due to aerosol perturbations are largely ruled out by averaging across experiments. Opportunistic experiments have significantly improved process-level understanding of ACI, but it remains unclear how reliably the relationships found can be scaled to the global level, thus demonstrating a need for deeper investigation in order to improve assessments of aerosol radiative forcing and climate change.

Matthew W Christensen↗

NASA NTRS1980

Evolution of solar magnetic fields - A new approach to MHD initial-boundary value problems by the method of nearcharacteristics

A method of analysis for the MHD initial-boundary problem is presented in which the model's formulation is based on the method of nearcharacteristics developed by Werner (1968) and modified by Shin and Kot (1978). With this method, the physical causality relationship can be traced from the perturbation to the response as in the method of characteristics, while achieving the advantage of a considerable reduction in mathematical procedures. The method offers the advantage of examining not only the evolution of nonforce free fields, but also the changes of physical conditions in the atmosphere accompanying the evolution of magnetic fields. The physical validity of the method is demonstrated with examples, and their significance in interpreting observations is discussed.

Nakagawa, Y.↗

NASA NTRS2005

New Technologies for Weather Accident Prevention

Weather is a causal factor in thirty percent of all aviation accidents. Many of these accidents are due to a lack of weather situation awareness by pilots in flight. Improving the strategic and tactical weather information available and its presentation to pilots in flight can enhance weather situation awareness and enable avoidance of adverse conditions. This paper presents technologies for airborne detection, dissemination and display of weather information developed by the National Aeronautics and Space Administration (NASA) in partnership with the Federal Aviation Administration (FAA), National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA), industry and the research community. These technologies, currently in the initial stages of implementation by industry, will provide more precise and timely knowledge of the weather and enable pilots in flight to make decisions that result in safer and more efficient operations.

Stough, H. Paul, III↗

NASA NTRS2007

Cosmological Inflation: A Personal Perspective

Approximately twenty five years ago a novel proposal was made to explain two of the outstanding cosmological conundrums, namely those of the Horizon Problem and the Flatness Problem of the Universe. These are the fact that widely separated parts of the sky that have never been in causal contact during the evolution of the Universe have apparently the same CMB temperature and the fact that the mean density of the Universe is very close to the critical one, i.e. very close to the density that separates the closed and open models. These coincidences implied that the corresponding initial condition of the Universe must have been set to exquisite accuracy. This novel proposal posted that at these very early times, the energy density of the Universe was dominated by a fluid which had the equation state attributed to the vacuum (i.e. dominated by tension rather than pressure) and that this led to an exponential expansion of the Universe which was "inflated" by many orders of magnitude of its original size. It was then shown that this "inflation" could provide a resolution of the above outstanding problems. The talk will cover the speaker's personal perspective and contributions to this idea and the subsequent developments over the following 25 years since its inception.

Kazanas, D.↗

NASA NTRS2012

Abiotic Versus Biotic Pathogens: Replicative Growth in Host Tissues Key to Discriminating Between Biotoxic Injury and Active Pathogenesis

Life can be defined as a self-sustaining chemical system capable of undergoing Darwinian evolution; a self-bounded, self-replicating, and self-perpetuating entity [1]. This definition should hold for terrestrial as well as extraterrestrial life-forms. Although, it is reasonable to expect that a Mars life-form would be more adaptable to Mars-like conditions than to Earth-like environments, it remains possible that negative ecological or host interactions might occur if Mars microbiota were to be inadvertently released into the terrestrial environment. A biogenic infectious agent can be defined as a self-sustaining chemical system capable of undergoing Darwinian evolution and derives its sustenance from a living cell or from the by-products of cell death. Disease can be de-fined as the detrimental alteration of one or more ordered metabolic processes in a living host caused by the continued irritation of a primary causal factor or factors; disease is a dynamic process [2]. In contrast, an injury is due to an instantaneous event; injury is not a dynamic process [2]. A causal agent of disease is defined as a pathogen, and can be either abiotic or biotic in nature. Diseases incited by biotic pathogens are the exceptions, not the norms, in terrestrial host-microbe interactions. Disease induction in a plant host can be conceptually characterized using the Disease Triangle (Fig. 1) in which disease occurs only when all host, pathogen, and environ-mental factors that contribute to the development of disease are within conducive ranges for a necessary minimum period of time. For example, plant infection and disease caused by the wheat leaf rust fungus, Puccinia recondita, occur only if virulent spores adhere to genetically susceptible host tissues for at least 4-6 hours under favorable conditions of temperature and moisture [3]. As long as one or more conditions required for disease initiation are not available, disease symptoms will not develop.

Schuerger, Andrew C.↗

NASA NTRS2016

Saharan Dust as a Causal Factor of Significant Cloud Cover Along the Saharan Air Layer in the Atlantic Ocean

The tropical Atlantic is frequently affected by Saharan dust intrusions. Based on MODIS cloud fraction (CF) data during the ten-year study period, we found that these dust intrusions contribute to significant cloud cover along the Saharan Air Layer (SAL). Below the temperature inversion at the SAL's base, the presence of large amounts of settling dust particles, together with marine aerosols, produces meteorological conditions suitable for the formation of shallow stratocumulus clouds. The significant cloud fraction along the SAL together with clouds over the Atlantic Inter-tropical Convergence Zone contributes to the 20% hemispheric CF asymmetry between the tropical North and South Atlantic. This leads to the imbalance in strong solar radiation, which reaches the sea surface between the tropical North and South Atlantic, and, consequently, affects climate formation in the tropical Atlantic. Therefore, despite the fact that, over the global ocean, there is no noticeable hemispheric asymmetry in cloud fraction, over the significant area such as the tropical Atlantic the hemispheric asymmetry in CF takes place. Saharan dust is also the major contributor to hemispheric aerosol asymmetry over the tropical Atlantic. The NASA GEOS-5 model with aerosol data assimilation was used to extend the MERRA reanalysis with five atmospheric aerosol species (desert dust, sulfates, organic carbon, black carbon, and sea-salt). The obtained ten-year (2002 - 2012) MERRA-driven aerosol reanalysis dataset (aka MERRAero) showed that, over the tropical Atlantic, dust and carbonaceous aerosols were distributed asymmetrically relative to the equator, while other aerosol species were distributed more symmetrically.

CF↗

NASA NTRS1996

Exact-Output Tracking Theory for Systems with Parameter Jumps

In this paper we consider the exact output tracking problem for systems with parameter jumps. Necessary and sufficient conditions are derived for the elimination of switching-introduced output transient. Previous works have studied this problem by developing a regulator that maintains exact tracking through parameter jumps (switches). Such techniques are, however, only applicable to minimum-phase systems. In contrast, our approach is applicable to nonminimum-phase systems and obtains bounded but possibly non-causal solutions. If the reference trajectories are generated by an exo-system, then we develop an exact-tracking controller in a feedback form. As in standard regulator theory, we obtain a linear map from the states of the exo-system to the desired system state which is defined via a matrix differential equation. The constant solution of this differential equation provides asymptotic tracking, and coincides with the feedback law used in standard regulator theory. The obtained results are applied to a simple flexible manipulator with jumps in the pay-load mass.

Devasia, Santosh↗

NASA NTRS2000

Flap Edge Aeroacoustic Measurements and Predictions

An aeroacoustic model test has been conducted to investigate the mechanisms of sound generation on high-lift wing configurations. This paper presents an analysis of flap side-edge noise, which is often the most dominant source. A model of a main element wing section with a half-span flap was tested at low speeds of up to a Mach number of 0.17, corresponding to a wing chord Reynolds number of approximately 1.7 million. Results are presented for flat (or blunt), flanged, and round flap-edge geometries, with and without boundary-layer tripping, deployed at both moderate and high flap angles. The acoustic database is obtained from a Small Aperture Directional Array (SADA) of microphones, which was constructed to electronically steer to different regions of the model and to obtain farfield noise spectra and directivity from these regions. The basic flap-edge aerodynamics is established by static surface pressure data, as well as by Computational Fluid Dynamics (CFD) calculations and simplified edge flow analyses. Distributions of unsteady pressure sensors over the flap allow the noise source regions to be defined and quantified via cross-spectral diagnostics using the SADA output. It is found that shear layer instability and related pressure scatter is the primary noise mechanism. For the flat edge flap, two noise prediction methods based on unsteady-surface-pressure measurements are evaluated and compared to measured noise. One is a new causality spectral approach developed here. The other is a new application of an edge-noise scatter prediction method. The good comparisons for both approaches suggest that much of the physics is captured by the prediction models. Areas of disagreement appear to reveal when the assumed edge noise mechanism does not fully define, the noise production. For the different edge conditions, extensive spectra and directivity are presented. Significantly, for each edge configuration, the spectra for different flow speeds, flap angles, and surface roughness were successfully scaled by utilizing aerodynamic performance and boundary layer scaling method developed herein.

Brooks, Thomas F.↗

NASA NTRS2000

Flap Edge Aeroacoustic Measurements and Predictions

An aeroacoustic model test has been conducted to investigate the mechanisms of sound generation on high-lift wing configurations. This paper presents an analysis of flap side-edge noise, which is often the most dominant source. A model of a main element wing section with a half-span flap was tested at low speeds of up to a Mach number of 0.17, corresponding to a wing chord Reynolds number of approximately 1.7 million. Results are presented for flat (or blunt), flanged, and round flap-edge geometries, with and without boundary-layer tripping, deployed at both moderate and high flap angles. The acoustic database is obtained from a Small Aperture Directional Array (SADA) of microphones, which was constructed to electronically steer to different regions of the model and to obtain farfield noise spectra and directivity from these regions. The basic flap-edge aerodynamics is established by static surface pressure data, as well as by Computational Fluid Dynamics (CFD) calculations and simplified edge flow analyses. Distributions of unsteady pressure sensors over the flap allow the noise source regions to be defined and quantified via cross-spectral diagnostics using the SADA output. It is found that shear layer instability and related pressure scatter is the primary noise mechanism. For the flat edge flap, two noise prediction methods based on unsteady surface pressure measurements are evaluated and compared to measured noise. One is a new causality spectral approach developed here. The other is a new application of an edge-noise scatter prediction method. The good comparisons for both approaches suggest that much of the physics is captured by the prediction models. Areas of disagreement appear to reveal when the assumed edge noise mechanism does not fully define the noise production. For the different edge conditions, extensive spectra and directivity are presented. Significantly, for each edge configuration, the spectra for different flow speeds, flap angles, and surface roughness were successfully scaled by utilizing aerodynamic performance and boundary layer scaling methods developed herein.

Brooks, Thomas F.↗

NASA NTRS1997

Exact-Output Tracking Theory for Systems with Parameter Jumps

We consider the exact output tracking problem for systems with parameter jumps. Necessary and sufficient conditions are derived for the elimination of switching-introduced output transient. Previous works have studied this problem by developing a regulator that maintains exact tracking through parameter jumps (switches). Such techniques are, however, only applicable to minimum-phase systems. In contrast, our approach is applicable to non-minimum-phase systems and it obtains bounded but possibly non-causal solutions. If the reference trajectories are generated by an exosystem, then we develop an exact-tracking controller in a feed-back form. As in standard regulator theory, we obtain a linear map from the states of the exosystem to the desired system state which is defined via a matrix differential equation. The constant solution of this differential equation provides asymptotic tracking, and coincides with the feedback law used in standard regulator theory. The obtained results are applied to a simple flexible manipulator with jumps in the pay-load mass.

Devasia, Santosh↗

NASA NTRS2004

National Airspace System Delay Estimation Using Weather Weighted Traffic Counts

Assessment of National Airspace System performance, which is usually measured in terms of delays resulting from the application of traffic flow management initiatives in response to weather conditions, volume, equipment outages and runway conditions, is needed both for guiding flow control decisions during the day of operations and for post operations analysis. Comparison of the actual delay, resulting from the traffic flow management initiatives, with the expected delay, based on traffic demand and other conditions, provides the assessment of the National Airspace System performance. This paper provides a method for estimating delay using the expected traffic demand and weather. In order to identify the cause of delays, 517 days of National Airspace System delay data reported by the Federal Aviation Administration s Operations Network were analyzed. This analysis shows that weather is the most important causal factor for delays followed by equipment and runway delays. Guided by these results, the concept of weather weighted traffic counts as a measure of system delay is described. Examples are given to show the variation of these counts as a function of time of the day. The various datasets, consisting of aircraft position data, enroute severe weather data, surface wind speed and visibility data, reported delay data and number of aircraft handled by the Centers data, and their sources are described. The procedure for selecting reference days on which traffic was minimally impacted by weather is described. Different traffic demand on each reference day of the week, determined by analysis of 42 days of traffic and delay data, was used as the expected traffic demand for each day of the week. Next, the method for computing the weather weighted traffic counts using the expected traffic demand, derived from reference days, and the expanded regions around severe weather cells is discussed. It is shown via a numerical example that this approach improves the dynamic range of the weather weighted traffic counts considerably. Time histories of these new weather weighted traffic counts are used for synthesizing two statistical features, six histogram features and six time domain features. In addition to these enroute weather features, two surface weather features of number of major airports in the United States with high mean winds and low mean visibility are also described. A least squares procedure for establishing a functional relation between the features, using combinations of these features, and system delays is explored using 36 days of data. Best correlations between the estimated delays using the functional relation and the actual delays provided by the Operations Network are obtained with two different combinations of features: 1) six time domain features of weather weighted traffic counts plus two surface weather features, and 2) six histogram features and mean of weather weighted traffic counts along with the two surface weather features. Correlation coefficient values of 0.73 and 0.83 were found in these two instances.

Chatterji, Gano B.↗

NASA NTRS1996

Guidance of Nonlinear Nonminimum-Phase Dynamic Systems

The research work has advanced the inversion-based guidance theory for: systems with non-hyperbolic internal dynamics; systems with parameter jumps; and systems where a redesign of the output trajectory is desired. A technique to achieve output tracking for nonminimum phase linear systems with non-hyperbolic and near non-hyperbolic internal dynamics was developed. This approach integrated stable inversion techniques, that achieve exact-tracking, with approximation techniques, that modify the internal dynamics to achieve desirable performance. Such modification of the internal dynamics was used (a) to remove non-hyperbolicity which is an obstruction to applying stable inversion techniques and (b) to reduce large preactuation times needed to apply stable inversion for near non-hyperbolic cases. The method was applied to an example helicopter hover control problem with near non-hyperbolic internal dynamics for illustrating the trade-off between exact tracking and reduction of preactuation time. Future work will extend these results to guidance of nonlinear non-hyperbolic systems. The exact output tracking problem for systems with parameter jumps was considered. Necessary and sufficient conditions were derived for the elimination of switching-introduced output transient. While previous works had studied this problem by developing a regulator that maintains exact tracking through parameter jumps (switches), such techniques are, however, only applicable to minimum-phase systems. In contrast, our approach is also applicable to nonminimum-phase systems and leads to bounded but possibly non-causal solutions. In addition, for the case when the reference trajectories are generated by an exosystem, we developed an exact-tracking controller which could be written in a feedback form. As in standard regulator theory, we also obtained a linear map from the states of the exosystem to the desired system state, which was defined via a matrix differential equation.

Devasia, Santosh↗

NASA NTRS2006

Relationship between Weather, Traffic and Delay Based on Empirical Methods

The steady rise in demand for air transportation over the years has put much emphasis on the need for sophisticated air traffic flow management (TFM) within the National Airspace System (NAS). The NAS refers to hardware, software and people, including runways, radars, networks, FAA, airlines, etc., involved in air traffic management (ATM) in the US. One of the metrics that has been used to assess the performance of NAS is the actual delays provided through FAA's Air Traffic Operations Network (OPSNET). The OPSNET delay data includes those reportable delays, i.e. delays of 15 minutes or more experienced by Instrument Flight Rule (IFR) flights, submitted by the FAA facilities. These OPSNET delays are caused by the application of TFM initiatives in response to, for instance, weather conditions, increased traffic volume, equipment outages, airline operations, and runway conditions. TFM initiatives such as, ground stops, ground delay programs, rerouting, airborne holding, and miles-in-trail restrictions, are actions which are needed to control the air traffic demand to mitigate the demand-capacity imbalance due to the reduction in capacity. Consequently, TFM initiatives result in NAS delays. Of all the causes, weather has been identified as the most important causal factor for NAS delays. Therefore, in order to accurately assess the NAS performance, it has become necessary to create a baseline for NAS performance and establish a model which characterizes the relation between weather and NAS delays.

Sridhar, Banavar↗