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At least 73 records · Page 4

An iterative bidirectional gradient boosting approach for CVR baseline estimation

Here this paper presents a novel Iterative Bidirectional Gradient Boosting Model (IBi-GBM) for estimating the baseline of Conservation Voltage Reduction (CVR) programs. In contrast to many existing methods, we treat CVR baseline estimation as a missing data retrieval problem. The approach involves dividing the load and its corresponding temperature profiles into three periods: pre-CVR, CVR, and post-CVR. To restore the missing load profile during the CVR period, the method employs a three-step process. First, a forward-pass GBM is executed using data from the pre-CVR period as inputs. Subsequently, a backward-pass GBM is applied using data from the post-CVR period. The two restored load profiles are reconciled, considering pre-calculated weights derived from forecasting accuracy, and only the leftmost and rightmost points are retained. The newly restored points are then included as inputs for the subsequent iteration. This iterative procedure continues until the original load data in the CVR period is fully restored. We develop IBi-GBM using actual smart meter and Supervisory Control and Data Acquisition (SCADA) data. Our results demonstrate that IBi-GBM exhibits robust performance across various data resolutions and in different seasons and outperforms existing methods by achieving a 1-2% reduction in normalized Root Mean Square Error (nRMSE).

42 ENGINEERING↗

Experimental Considerations in Long-Baseline Neutrino Oscillation Measurements

Long-baseline neutrino oscillation experiments, which are among the largest neutrino experiments in the world, have extensive physics programs to make precision measurements of three-flavor oscillation parameters, search for physics beyond the Standard Model, and study neutrinos from astrophysical sources. In this article, experimental considerations, including oscillation phenomenology, detector and experiment design, and analysis strategies, are described, with a focus on the three-flavor oscillation measurements. Current and future experiments are discussed, and significant sources of systematic uncertainty, along with mitigation strategies, are emphasized as control of systematic uncertainty is critical for success in precise measurement of long-baseline oscillation parameters. This article is structured as a primer for those new to this area of experimental work.

72 PHYSICS OF ELEMENTARY PARTICLES AND FIELDS↗

Baseline Characterization Database Verification Report - NBG-18 Billet 635-14

The purpose of this Engineering Calculations and Analysis Report is to present the data being collected in the Baseline Graphite Characterization program, which is directly tasked with supporting the Idaho National Laboratory’s (INL’s) research and development efforts on the Next Generation Nuclear Plant (NGNP)/Very High Temperature Reactor (VHTR)/Advanced Reactor Technology (ART). This program is populating a comprehensive database that will reflect the baseline properties of nuclear-grade graphite regarding individual grade, billet, and position within individual billets. The physical and mechanical property information being collected will be transferred to the NGNP Data Management and Analysis System (NDMAS), and from that database will help populate handbook of property data available to member nations of the Generation IV International Forum (GIF).

11 NUCLEAR FUEL CYCLE AND FUEL MATERIALS↗

WaterTAP3 Model Results for NAWI's Baseline Analyses

Description: This folder contains the results for the WaterTAP3 model that was used for the eight NAWI (National Alliance for Water Innovation) baseline studies published in the Environmental Science and Technology special issue: Technology Baselines and Innovation Priorities for Water Treatment and Supply. The data structure and content are described in a README.txt file. For more details on how to use the data and interpret the results please refer to the model documentation and GitHub site linked in the submission.

29 ENERGY PLANNING, POLICY, AND ECONOMY↗

Baseline Characterization Database Verification Report - PCEA Billet 02S8-5

The purpose of this engineering calculations and analysis report (ECAR) is to present data collected in the Baseline Graphite Characterization Program, which is directly tasked with supporting the Idaho National Laboratory's (INL's) research and development efforts on the Advanced Reactor Technologies (ART) Program. This program populates a comprehensive database that reflects the baseline properties of nuclear-grade graphite regarding individual grade, billet, and position within individual billets. The physical- and mechanical-property information being collected will be transferred to the Nuclear Data Management and Analysis System (NDMAS), and that database will help populate the handbook of property data available to member nations of the Generation-IV International Forum. Transfer of these data from the applicable technical lead to the dissemination databases available to other end users requires a full review of the test procedures and data-collection efforts through an analysis of the multiple summary spreadsheets and values being collected. This report represents the analysis for PCEA Billet 02S8-5 and facilitates release of associated data to the NDMAS custodians.

11 NUCLEAR FUEL CYCLE AND FUEL MATERIALS↗

Baseline Characterization Database Verification Report - PCEA Billet 01S8-9

The purpose of this engineering calculations and analysis report (ECAR) is to present data collected in the Baseline Graphite Characterization Program, which is directly tasked with supporting the Idaho National Laboratory's (INL's) research and development efforts on the Advanced Reactor Technologies (ART) Program. This program populates a comprehensive database that reflects the baseline properties of nuclear-grade graphite with regard to individual grade, billet, and position within individual billets. The physical- and mechanical-property information being collected will be transferred to the Nuclear Data Management and Analysis System (NDMAS), and that database will help populate the handbook of property data available to member nations of the Generation-IV International Forum. Transfer of these data from the applicable technical lead to the dissemination databases available to other end users requires a full review of the test procedures and data-collection efforts through an analysis of the multiple summary spreadsheets and values being collected. This report represents the analysis for PCEA Billet 01S8-9 and facilitates release of associated data to the NDMAS custodians.

11 NUCLEAR FUEL CYCLE AND FUEL MATERIALS↗

ECAR: Baseline Characterization Database Verification Report – PCEA Billet 01D3-35

The purpose of this engineering calculations and analysis report (ECAR) is to present data collected in the Baseline Graphite Characterization Program, which is directly tasked with supporting the Idaho National Laboratory’s (INL’s) research and development efforts on the Advanced Reactor Technologies (ART) Program. This program populates a comprehensive database that reflects the baseline properties of nuclear-grade graphite with regard to individual grade, billet, and position within individual billets. The physical- and mechanical-property information collected will be transferred to the Nuclear Data Management and Analysis System (NDMAS), and that database will help populate the handbook of property data available to member nations of the Generation-IV International Forum. Transfer of these data from the applicable technical lead to the dissemination databases available to other end users requires a full review of the test procedures and data-collection efforts through an analysis of the multiple summary spreadsheets and values being collected. This report represents the analysis for PCEA Billet 01D3-35 and facilitates release of associated data to the NDMAS custodians.

11 - NUCLEAR FUEL CYCLE AND FUEL MATERIALS↗

Constraining non-standard neutrino interactions with neutral current events at long-baseline oscillation experiments

We explore, for the first time, neutral-curren t events at long-baseline experiments to constrain vector and axial-vector neutrino non-standard interactions (NSI) with quarks. We leverage the flavor dependence of NSIs to perform an oscillation analysis in the neutral- current channel. We first introduce a framework to parametrize the effect of NSI on the cross section. Then, as an example, we analyze NOvA neutral-current data which provides significantly improved constraints on the axial-vector NSI parameters ${\varepsilon}_{\mu \mu}^A$, ${\varepsilon}_{\tau \tau}^A$ and ${\varepsilon}_{e\mu}^A$. This is highly complementary to constraints from SNO data, which, differently from long-baseline neutral current data, is not sensitive to isospin conserving NSIs ${\varepsilon}_u^A$ = ${\varepsilon}_d^A$. Additionally, we disfavor large values of the diagonal vectorial NSI ${\varepsilon}_{\mu \mu}^{VV}$ and ${\varepsilon}_{\tau \tau}^V$ which originate from the LMA-Dark solution. We also highlight the complementarity between NSI searches at oscillation experiments using charged current and neutral current channels.

neutrino interactions↗

Emerging Tools to Support DILI Assessment in Clinical Trials with Abnormal Baseline Serum Liver Tests or Pre-existing Liver Diseases

Abstract Based on the late Dr. Hyman Zimmerman’s observation that hepatocellular drug-induced liver injury (DILI) leading to jaundice carries a ≥ 10% fatality risk (coined as Hy’s law by others), evaluation of Drug-Induced Serious Hepatotoxicity (eDISH) continues to play a central role in the assessment of a study drug’s liability for acute hepatocellular DILI. The eDISH identifies drugs in clinical trials with DILI fatality (death or transplant) risk that may be unacceptable in a post-market setting. As a two-dimensional graph that plots peak total bilirubin (TB) versus peak serum aminotransferase levels for each patient during study drug or comparator treatment, eDISH identifies potential cases of acute, modest, and serious hepatocellular DILI for in-depth analysis of liver tests (LT) and clinical course so that the likelihood of causal association with the study drug can be determined. Unfortunately, the generalizable utility of this tool only pertains to trials enrolling patients with normal or near normal (NNN) baseline (BL) serum LTs. The eDISH does not necessarily apply to trials of patients with abnormal baseline (ABN-BL) LTs that often coincide with underlying liver disorders. Because drug development programs being reviewed by the FDA increasingly target liver disorders, we are often challenged to evaluate DILI risk in trials of patients with ABN-BL LTs. Also, the high background prevalence of metabolic dysfunction associated steatotic liver disease (MASLD) means patients with LTs above NNN may need to be enrolled in trials treating non-liver disorders to reflect the target population. Such study populations create challenges for industry and regulators because eDISH may not reliably categorize or identify potential cases of DILI for further analysis, as it so efficiently does in NNN-BL trials. We describe the main functionalities of eDISH in NNN-BL trials to understand what should be emulated by new tools or eDISH modifications. We then discuss non-eDISH–based plots that may be useful in ABN-BL trials.

Amirzadegan, Jasmine↗

Long-baseline quantum sensor network as dark matter haloscope

Ultralight dark photons constitute a well-motivated candidate for dark matter. A coherent electromagnetic wave is expected to be induced by dark photons when coupled with Standard-Model photons through kinetic mixing mechanism, and should be spatially correlated within the de Broglie wavelength of dark photons. Here we report the first search for correlated dark-photon signals using a long-baseline network of 15 atomic magnetometers, which are situated in two separated meter-scale shield rooms with a distance of about 1700 km. Both the network’s multiple sensors and the shields large size significantly enhance the expected dark-photon electromagnetic signals, and long-baseline measurements confidently reduce many local noise sources. Using this network, we constrain the kinetic mixing coefficient of dark photon dark matter over the mass range 4.1 feV-2.1 peV, which represents the most stringent constraints derived from any terrestrial experiments operating over the aforementioned mass range. Our prospect indicates that future data releases may go beyond the astrophysical constraints from the cosmic microwave background and the plasma heating.

72 PHYSICS OF ELEMENTARY PARTICLES AND FIELDS↗

Locating the missing large-scale emission in the jet of M87* with short EHT baselines

In very-long baseline interferometric arrays, nearly co-located stations probe the largest scales and typically cannot resolve the observed source. In the absence of a large-scale structure, closure phases constructed with these stations are zero and, since they are independent of station-based errors, they can be used to probe data issues. Here, we show how these trivial closure phases become nonzero with a brightness distribution on smaller scales than their short baseline would suggest. When applied to sources that are made up of a bright compact and large-scale diffuse component, the trivial closure phases directly measure the centroid relative to the compact source and higher-order image moments. We present a technique to measure these image moments with minimal model assumptions and validate it on synthetic Event Horizon Telescope (EHT) data. We then apply this technique to 2017 and 2018 EHT observations of M87* and find a weak preference for extended emission in the direction of the large-scale jet. We also apply it to 2021 EHT data and measure the source centroid about 1 mas northwest of the compact ring, which is consistent with the jet observed at lower frequencies.

79 ASTRONOMY AND ASTROPHYSICS↗

Twenty-first century hydroclimate: A continually changing baseline, with more frequent extremes

Variability in hydroclimate impacts natural and human systems worldwide. In particular, both decadal variability and extreme precipitation events have substantial effects and are anticipated to be strongly influenced by climate change. From a practical perspective, these impacts will be felt relative to the continuously evolving background climate. Removing the underlying forced trend is therefore necessary to assess the relative impacts, but to date, the small size of most climate model ensembles has made it difficult to do this. Here we use an archive of large ensembles run under a high-emissions scenario to determine how decadal “megadrought” and “megapluvial” events—and shorter-term precipitation extremes—will vary relative to that changing baseline. When the trend is retained, mean state changes dominate: In fact, soil moisture changes are so large in some regions that conditions that would be considered a megadrought or pluvial event today are projected to become average. Time-of-emergence calculations suggest that in some regions including Europe and western North America, this shift may have already taken place and could be imminent elsewhere: Emergence of drought/pluvial conditions occurs over 61% of the global land surface (excluding Antarctica) by 2080. Relative to the changing baseline, megadrought/megapluvial risk either will not change or is slightly reduced. However, the increased frequency and intensity of both extreme wet and dry precipitation events will likely present adaptation challenges beyond anything currently experienced. In many regions, resilience against future hazards will require adapting to an ever-changing “normal,” characterized by unprecedented aridification/wetting punctuated by more severe extremes.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

Tearing Stable Stationary ITER Baseline Operation in DIII-D

We present a tearing stable, stationary and reproducible operating solution for DIII-D plasmas characterized by the ITER Baseline Scenario normalized parameter set and shape. In these plasmas low differential rotation (Δf1,2) between the core and edge is identified as the single root cause of the onset of the primary limiting instability, the 2,1 Neoclassical Tearing Mode (NTM), while a group of other examined parameters have a much weaker impact on the stability. Explanation is offered by drift kinetic simulations, which show a six-fold reduction in the NTM onset threshold due to diminished stabilizing ion polarization currents when the seed island drift frequency ceases in the local plasma frame. Based on the experimental observation and the explanation provided by the theory, a new method is developed to sustain Δf1,2 by modifying the edge neoclassical potential through neutral gas fueling. This method enables stationary ITER baseline operation free of disruptive 2,1 tearing modes.

70 PLASMA PHYSICS AND FUSION TECHNOLOGY↗

Overview and status of the Long-Baseline Neutrino Facility Far Site cryogenics system

The Sanford Underground Research Facility (SURF) will host the Far Detector of the Deep Underground Neutrino Experiment (DUNE), an international multi-kiloton Long-Baseline neutrino experiment that will be installed about one and a half kilometers underground in Lead, SD. Detectors will be located inside four cryostats filled with almost 70,000 metric tons of ultrapure liquid argon, with a level of impurities lower than 100 parts per trillion of oxygen equivalent contamination. The cryogenics infrastructure supporting this experiment is provided by the Long-Baseline Neutrino Facility (LBNF). This contribution presents modes of operation, layout, and main features of the LBNF Far Site cryogenic system, which is composed of three subsystems: Infrastructure, Proximity, and Internal cryogenics. The Infrastructure cryogenics supports the needs of the cryostat and Proximity cryogenics. It includes the equipment to receive the argon in liquid phase, vaporize it and transfer it underground as a gas, the nitrogen system (composed of the refrigeration system, liquid nitrogen buffer tanks and liquid and gaseous nitrogen distribution), liquid and gaseous argon distribution and process controls. The Proximity cryogenics receives fluids from the Infrastructure cryogenics and delivers them to the Internal cryogenics at the required temperature, pressure, purity and mass flow rate. It includes the argon condensers, liquid and gaseous argon purification and regeneration systems, nitrogen and argon phase separators, piping, valves, and instrumentation. The Internal cryogenics comprises the liquid and gaseous argon distribution inside the cryostats for the commissioning, cool down, fill, and steady state operations of the cryostats and detectors. An international engineering team is designing these systems and will manufacture, install, commission, and qualify them. This contribution describes the main features, performance, functional requirements, and modes of operation of the LBNF Far Site cryogenics system. It also presents the status of the design, along with present and future needs to support the DUNE experiment.

43 PARTICLE ACCELERATORS↗

Developing an Evolutionary Baseline Model for Humans: Jointly Inferring Purifying Selection with Population History

Building evolutionarily appropriate baseline models for natural populations is not only important for answering fundamental questions in population genetics—including quantifying the relative contributions of adaptive versus nonadaptive processes—but also essential for identifying candidate loci experiencing relatively rare and episodic forms of selection (e.g., positive or balancing selection). Here, a baseline model was developed for a human population of West African ancestry, the Yoruba, comprising processes constantly operating on the genome (i.e., purifying and background selection, population size changes, recombination rate heterogeneity, and gene conversion). Specifically, to perform joint inference of selective effects with demography, an approximate Bayesian approach was employed that utilizes the decay of background selection effects around functional elements, taking into account genomic architecture. This approach inferred a recent 6-fold population growth together with a distribution of fitness effects that is skewed towards effectively neutral mutations. Importantly, these results further suggest that, although strong and/or frequent recurrent positive selection is inconsistent with observed data, weak to moderate positive selection is consistent but unidentifiable if rare.

59 BASIC BIOLOGICAL SCIENCES↗

Sampling off-axis neutrino fluxes with the short-baseline near detector

The short-baseline near detector (SBND), the near detector in the short-baseline neutrino program at Fermi National Accelerator Laboratory, is located just 110 m from the booster neutrino beam target. Thanks to this close proximity, relative to its 4 m × 4 m front face, neutrinos enter SBND over a range of angles from 0° to approximately 1.6°, enabling the detector to sample variations in the neutrino flux as a function of the angle—a technique known as precision reaction-independent spectrum measurement (PRISM), referred to here as SBND-PRISM. In this paper, we show how muon- and electron-neutrino fluxes vary as a function of the neutrino beam axis angle and how this can be exploited to expand the physics potential of SBND. We make use of a model that predicts an angle-dependent electron-neutrino excess signal to illustrate this effect, such as 𝜈 𝜇 → 𝜈 𝑒 oscillations. We present how SBND-PRISM provides a method to add robustness against uncertainties in cross-section modeling and, more generally, uncertainties that do not depend on the spatial position of neutrino interaction inside the detector. The fluxes, along with their associated covariance matrices, are made publicly available with this publication.

Abratenko, P. [Tufts University]↗

Estimate of background baseline and upper limit on the chiral magnetic effect in isobar collisions at $\sqrt{S_{NN}}$=200 GeV at the BNL Relativistic Heavy Ion Collider

For the search of the chiral magnetic effect (CME), STAR previously presented the results from isobar collisions ($^{96}_{44}$Ru + $^{96}_{44}$Ru, $^{96}_{40}$Zr + $^{96}_{40}$Zr) obtained through a blind analysis. The ratio of results in Ru+Ru to Zr+Zr collisions for the CME-sensitive charge-dependent azimuthal correlator (Δ⁢𝛾), normalized by elliptic anisotropy (𝑣2), was observed to be close to but systematically larger than the inverse multiplicity ratio. The background baseline for the isobar ratio, 𝑌= (Δ⁢𝛾/𝑣2) Ru /(Δ⁢𝛾/𝑣2) Zr , is naively expected to be (1/𝑁) Ru /(1/𝑁) Zr ; however, genuine two- and three-particle correlations are expected to alter it. We estimate the contributions to 𝑌 from those correlations, utilizing both the isobar data and hijing simulations. After including those contributions, we arrive at a final background baseline for 𝑌, which is consistent with the isobar data. Here, we extract an upper limit for the CME fraction in the Δ⁢𝛾 measurement of approximately 10% at a 95% confidence level on in isobar collisions at $\sqrt{S_{NN}}$=200 GeV, with an expected 15% difference in their squared magnetic fields.

73 NUCLEAR PHYSICS AND RADIATION PHYSICS↗

Load Profile Inpainting for Missing Load Data Restoration and Baseline Estimation

This paper introduces a Generative Adversarial Nets (GAN) based, Load Profile Inpainting Network (Load-PIN) for restoring missing load data segments and estimating the baseline for a demand response event. The inputs are time series load data before and after the inpainting period together with explanatory variables (e.g., weather data). Here, we propose a Generator structure consisting of a coarse network and a fine-tuning network. The coarse network provides an initial estimation of the data segment in the inpainting period. The fine-tuning network consists of self-attention blocks and gated convolution layers for adjusting the initial estimations. Loss functions are specially designed for the fine-tuning and the discriminator networks to enhance both the point-to-point accuracy and realisticness of the results. We test the Load-PIN on three real-world data sets for two applications: patching missing data and deriving baselines of conservation voltage reduction (CVR) events. We benchmark the performance of Load-PIN with five existing deep-learning methods. Our simulation results show that, compared with the state-of-the-art methods, Load-PIN can handle varying-length missing data events and achieve 15-30% accuracy improvement.

14 SOLAR ENERGY↗