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At least 73 records · Page 4
All sourcesNASA NTRSDOE OSTI
DOE OSTI2023

(U) Correlated Sampling Using Batch Statistics to Reduce the Uncertainty of Combinations of KSEN Outputs with MCNP6

The relative sensitivity of k eff to the densities of nuclides in a material are combined to compute relative sensitivities to other inputs. When computed in a single Monte Carlo run, the nuclide density sensitivities are correlated, and the statistical uncertainties propagated to other inputs will be incorrect unless those correlations are accounted for. Equations are presented to apply correlated sampling using batch statistics for the sum of an arbitrary number of random tallies and the difference of two random tallies when each is multiplied by a different constant. When correlated sampling is used on a recent benchmark evaluation, the correct statistical uncertainties for certain combinations of sensitivities are dramatically smaller than the incorrect uncertainties. A user-controlled, regular output of MCNP6’s KSEN sensitivities that allows batch statistics to be applied to combinations would be extremely valuable.

73 NUCLEAR PHYSICS AND RADIATION PHYSICS↗
DOE OSTI2023

Dietary uptake of geosmin in rainbow trout ( Oncorhynchus mykiss )

Geosmin is a primary source of muddy/earthy ‘off-flavors’ in farmed fish, which may render their organoleptic quality unacceptable to consumers. Model systems of geosmin uptake typically comprise exposure to waterborne geosmin that is absorbed via the gills. The present research demonstrates dietary exposure as an alternative route of geosmin uptake in Rainbow Trout (Oncorhynchus mykiss) fillets. Trout (average initial weight of 355 g) were stocked in quadruplicate compartmentalized raceways (N = 4 compartments per treatment, n = 50 fish per compartment) supplied with first-use, flow-through water (4.5 complete turnovers per hour). Fish were fed diets containing 0 (control dose), 0.005 (low dose), 0.05 (medium dose), or 0.5 (high dose) mg geosmin/kg feed at 1% body weight/day for four weeks. Fillets (12 fillets/diet/week plus 12 pre-trial fillet samples) and weekly feed and water samples were analyzed via GC–MS to determine geosmin concentrations. Feeding behavior was documented daily according to a four-point scale. ANOVA with post-hoc Tukey tests and polynomial contrast, regression, correlation, and chi-squared statistical analyses were applied to data (α = 0.05 significance level). Palatability of feed did not hinder consumption of the geosmin-spiked feeds: although fish responded positively to all feeds, the most aggressive feeding behavior was observed among those fed medium and high dose feed. Geosmin was effectively imparted into fillets after one week, and no significant temporal effect was found after four weeks. Mean geosmin concentrations significantly increased in fillets from low (mean of 26 ng/kg geosmin) to medium (202 ng/kg) to high (441 ng/kg) dose feed groups during the trial. Polynomial contrasts and regression modeling validated this significant positive effect of dose on geosmin uptake, with an estimated 166 ng/kg rise in fillet-geosmin for every log 10 increase in feed concentration. Waterborne geosmin levels immediately post-feeding were conditionally independent of concentrations in feed and fillets, therefore dietary uptake was affirmed as the predominant mechanism of absorption in the present experimental system. Finally, based on these findings, geosmin-spiked feeds may be used to induce predictable, repeatable levels of this off-flavor compound in fillets and serve as a model system for further investigation of sensory quality and off-flavor mitigation strategies for farm-raised fish.

59 BASIC BIOLOGICAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2025

Convective shells in the interior of Cepheid variable stars: Overshooting models based on hydrodynamic simulations

Context. Because Cepheid variable stars have long been used as a cosmic benchmark for scaling distances in our Galaxy and beyond, the accuracy of stellar evolution models for Cepheids have wide-reaching effects. However, our understanding of the dynamics in the interiors of these physically complex stars is limited. Aims. Our goal is to provide a detailed multi-dimensional picture of hydrodynamic convection and convective boundary mixing in the interior of Cepheids. Methods. Using the Modules for Experiments in Stellar Astrophysics (MESA), we studied the structure of intermediate-mass stars that cross the instability strip. Then, we performed two-dimensional hydrodynamic simulations of six stars with the fully compressible Multidimensional Stellar Implicit Code (MUSIC). Our simulations did not model the radial pulsations but focused on the interior structure of this family of stars. We developed and applied a new statistical analysis to examine convection and convective boundary mixing in the interior of these stellar simulations. Results. Based on a grid of MESA models, we demonstrated that a common structure for intermediate mass Cepheids includes an interior convective shell as well as a thin outer convective envelope. Using the extreme value theory approach to analyze our MUSIC simulation data, we found that overshooting above the convective shell fills the space between these convectively unstable layers. We developed a new statistical analysis that provides a clearer picture of how overshooting fills this layer; it also allowed us to formulate a detailed comparison between overshooting above and below the convective shell. Our analysis effectively decomposes the overshooting layer into two layers: a weak overshooting layer and a strong overshooting layer. Statistically, this is accomplished by decomposing the strongly non-Gaussian probability density function into a mixture of gamma distributions. Using our mixture model, we showed that the ratio of overshooting lengths above and below the convective shell depends directly on the radial extent of the convective shell as well as its depth in the star. We proposed a new form for the diffusion coefficient that addresses the need for overlapping overshooting layers between convective shells. We introduced the idea of a “super-mixing layer” where overshooting from both the convective shell and the convective envelope results in efficient mixing and could be viewed as merging the two adjacent convective zones.

79 ASTRONOMY AND ASTROPHYSICS↗
DOE OSTI2025

Hauser-Feshbach Analysis of Fast Neutron-Induced Reactions on Chlorine

Neutron-induced reactions on 35Cl have recently been measured and analyzed in a Hauser-Feshbach framework at Los Alamos National Laboratory. Particular focus has been applied to the “fast” energy range above 100 keV, where these reactions become important for applications like CLYC (Cs 2 LiYCl 6 :Ce) detector characterization and the development of molten chloride fast reactors. However, challenges to applying a purely statistical analysis to this mass range have presented themselves in the form of cross section fluctuations and deviations due to low-mass structure. In this paper, these challenges and their current solutions will be highlighted, as well as preliminary extensions of the analysis to neighboring isotopes and future plans to extend the measurements down to thermal energies.

38 RADIATION CHEMISTRY, RADIOCHEMISTRY, AND NUCLEA↗
DOE OSTI2022

Constraining ΛCDM cosmological parameters with Einstein Telescope mock data

ABSTRACT We investigate the capability of Einstein Telescope to constrain the cosmological parameters of the non-flat ΛCDM cosmological model. Two types of mock data sets are considered depending on whether or not a short gamma-ray burst is detected, and associated with the gravitational wave emitted by binary neutron stars merger, using the THESEUS satellite. Depending on the mock data set, two statistical estimators are applied: one assumes that the redshift is known, while the other marginalizes over it assuming a specific redshift prior distribution. We demonstrate that (i) using mock catalogues collecting gravitational wave signals emitted by binary neutron stars systems to which a short gamma-ray burst has been associated, Einstein Telescope may achieve an accuracy on the cosmological parameters of $\sigma _{H_0}\approx 0.40$ km s−1 Mpc−1, $\sigma _{\Omega _{k,0}}\approx 0.09$, and $\sigma _{\Omega _{\Lambda ,0}}\approx 0.07$; while (ii) using mock catalogues collecting all gravitational wave signals emitted by binary neutron stars systems for which an electromagnetic counterpart has not been detected, Einstein Telescope may achieve an accuracy on the cosmological parameters of $\sigma _{H_0}\approx 0.04$ km s−1 Mpc−1, $\sigma _{\Omega _{k,0}}\approx 0.01$, and $\sigma _{\Omega _{\Lambda ,0}}\approx 0.01$, once the redshift probability distribution of GW events is known from from population synthesis simulations and/or the measure of the tidal deformability parameter. These results show an improvement of a factor 2–75 with respect to earlier results using complementary data sets.

Califano, Matteo↗
DOE OSTI2022

Data-driven approach to parameterize SCAN + U for an accurate description of 3 d transition metal oxide thermochemistry

Semilocal density-functional theory (DFT) methods exhibit significant errors for the phase diagrams of transition-metal oxides that are caused by an incorrect description of molecular oxygen and the large self-interaction error in materials with strongly localized electronic orbitals. Empirical and semiempirical corrections based on the DFT + U method can reduce these errors, but the parameterization and validation of the correction terms remains an on-going challenge. Here we develop a systematic methodology to determine the parameters and to statistically assess the results by considering interlinked thermochemical data across a set of transition metal compounds. We consider three interconnected levels of correction terms: (1) a constant oxygen binding correction, (2) Hubbard-U correction, and (3) DFT/DFT + U compatibility correction. The parameterization is expressed as a unified optimization problem. We demonstrate this approach for 3d transition metal oxides, considering a target set of binary and ternary oxides. With a total of 37 measured formation enthalpies taken from the literature, the dataset is augmented by the reaction energies of 1710 unique reactions that were derived from the formation energies by systematic enumeration. To ensure a balanced dataset across the available data, the reactions were grouped by their similarity using clustering and suitably weighted. The parameterization is validated using leave-one-out cross validation (CV), a standard technique for the validation of statistical models. We apply the methodology to the strongly constrained and appropriately normed (SCAN) density functional. Based on the CV score, the error of binary (ternary) oxide formation energies is reduced by 40% (75%) to 0.10 (0.03) eV/atom. A simplified correction scheme that does not involve SCAN/SCAN + U compatibility terms still achieves an error reduction of 30% (25%). The method and tools demonstrated here can be applied to other classes of materials or to parameterize the corrections to optimize DFT + U performance for other target physical properties.

36 MATERIALS SCIENCE↗
DOE OSTI2022

Misanthropic entropy and renormalization as a communication channel

A central physical question is the extent to which infrared (IR) observations are sufficient to reconstruct a candidate ultraviolet (UV) completion. We recast this question as a problem of communication, with messages encoded in field configurations of the UV being transmitted to the IR degrees of freedom via a noisy channel specified by renormalization group (RG) flow, with noise generated by coarse graining/decimation. We present an explicit formulation of these considerations in terms of lattice field theory, where we show that the “misanthropic entropy” — the mutual information obtained from decimating neighbors — encodes the extent to which information is lost in marginalizing over/tracing out UV degrees of freedom. Our considerations apply both to statistical field theories as well as density matrix renormalization of quantum systems, where in the quantum case, the statistical field theory analysis amounts to a leading-order approximation. As a concrete example, we focus on the case of the 2D Ising model, where we show that the misanthropic entropy detects the onset of the phase transition at the Ising model critical point.

Physics↗
DOE OSTI2025

Destructive Analysis of TRISO Particles: Crush/Burn/Leach Followed by Davies-Gray Titration and IDMS

The accurate accounting of nuclear materials is a cornerstone of international nuclear safeguards. One emerging challenge in this domain is the fabrication of TRIstructural ISOtropic (TRISO) particle fuels. Although these innovative fuel forms are critical for advanced reactor applications, their robust refractory ceramics and coating compositions present significant obstacles to destructive analysis (DA) methods. Ensuring full and quantitative recovery from these particles is essential for accurate mass accountancy. The current study was initiated to address these challenges, first by validating a previously established destructive method developed by Oak Ridge National Laboratory (ORNL) for the quantitative recovery of uranium from TRISO particles and then following that process with uranium content determination through isotope dilution mass spectrometry (IDMS) and Davies-Gray titration. This study expands on the scope of a digestive method that was developed under the Advanced Gas Reactor Fuel Development and Qualification program and is currently implemented in both the Coated Particle Fuel Development Laboratory and Irradiated Fuels Examination Laboratory at ORNL. The success of the previous Advanced Gas Reactor work relied on developing a DA method to evaluate the fabrication process and reactor experiments. The methodology described in this report was designed to rigorously investigate the efficacy of the crush/burn/leach sample preparation of TRISO particles; it aims to quantify uranium recovery while also assessing the effects of TRISO constituents (e.g., silicon and zirconium) on analytical precision and accuracy. By comparing the results from the titration method and IDMS, we sought to determine whether existing analytical procedures accepted by the International Atomic Energy Agency (IAEA) could be effectively translated to TRISO fuel forms. The team employed an approach that involved processing replicate TRISO samples, optimizing the milling (i.e., crushing) step and performing serial leaches. The elemental composition of the analytical samples was examined to prepare for interference studies in the second year of this project. The integration of gamma spectrometry to verify residual uranium activity further strengthened the validation. Statistical methods were applied to the collected data to evaluate the uncertainties arising from sampling, sample preparation and uranium quantification. These uncertainties were then compared to the IAEA’s international target values (ITVs). Additional data collected in upcoming project work will strengthen the uncertainty estimates. Ultimately, it is hoped that this project will contribute materially to the body of work related to characterization of TRISO based fuels for the purpose of material accountancy and its applications to international safeguards.

11 NUCLEAR FUEL CYCLE AND FUEL MATERIALS↗
DOE OSTI2023

Trimming and Decontamination of Metagenomic Data can Significantly Impact Assembly and Binning Metrics, Phylogenomic and Functional Analysis

Background: Investigators using metagenomic sequencing to study microbiomes often trim and decontaminate reads without knowing their effect on downstream analyses. Objective: This study was designed to evaluate the impacts JGI trimming and decontamination procedures have on assembly and binning metrics, placement of MAGs into species trees, and functional profiles of MAGs extracted from complex rhizosphere metagenomes, as well as how more aggressive trimming impacts these binning metrics. Methods: Twenty-three Miscanthus x giganteus rhizosphere metagenomes were subjected to different combinations and thresholds of force, kmer, and quality trimming and decontamination using BBDuk. Reads were assembled and binned in KBase. Phylogenomic and statistical analyses were applied to evaluate the effects of trimming and decontamination on downstream analyses. Results: We found that JGI trimmed and decontaminated reads had significant impacts on assembly and binning metrics compared to raw reads, including significantly higher total contig counts, more contigs greater than 10k bp in length, and larger total lengths of raw assemblies compared to QC assemblies, and 2.0% lower average contamination of QC MAGs compared to raw MAGs. We also found that differences in the placement of MAGs in species trees increased with decreasing completeness and contamination thresholds. Furthermore, aggressive trimming (Q20) was found to significantly reduce MAG counts. Conclusion: Trimming and decontamination of metagenomics reads prior to assembly can change an investigator’s answer to the questions, “Who is there and what are they doing?” However, mild trimming and decontamination of metagenomic reads with high-quality scores are recommended for removing sample processing and sequencing artifacts.

Whitham, Jason M.↗
DOE OSTI2022

Chemical Cartography with APOGEE: Mapping Disk Populations with a 2-process Model and Residual Abundances

We apply a novel statistical analysis to measurements of 16 elemental abundances in 34,410 Milky Way disk stars from the final data release (DR17) of APOGEE-2. Building on recent work, we fit median abundance ratio trends [X/Mg] versus [Mg/H] with a 2-process model, which decomposes abundance patterns into a "prompt" component tracing core-collapse supernovae and a "delayed" component tracing Type Ia supernovae. For each sample star, we fit the amplitudes of these two components, then compute the residuals Δ[X/H] from this two-parameter fit. The rms residuals range from ~0.01–0.03 dex for the most precisely measured APOGEE abundances to ~0.1 dex for Na, V, and Ce. The correlations of residuals reveal a complex underlying structure, including a correlated element group comprised of Ca, Na, Al, K, Cr, and Ce and a separate group comprised of Ni, V, Mn, and Co. Selecting stars poorly fit by the 2-process model reveals a rich variety of physical outliers and sometimes subtle measurement errors. Residual abundances allow for the comparison of populations controlled for differences in metallicity and [α/Fe]. Relative to the main disk (R = 3–13 kpc), we find nearly identical abundance patterns in the outer disk (R = 15–17 kpc), 0.05–0.2 dex depressions of multiple elements in LMC and Gaia Sausage/Enceladus stars, and wild deviations (0.4–1 dex) of multiple elements in ω Cen. The residual abundance analysis opens new opportunities for discovering chemically distinctive stars and stellar populations, for empirically constraining nucleosynthetic yields, and for testing chemical evolution models that include stochasticity in the production and redistribution of elements.

79 ASTRONOMY AND ASTROPHYSICS↗
DOE OSTI2024

Data analytics for intermodal freight transportation applications

With the growth of intermodal freight transportation, it is important that transportation planners and decision-makers are knowledgeable about freight flow data to make informed decisions. This is particularly true with Intelligent Transportation Systems (ITS) offering new capabilities for intermodal freight transportation. Specifically, ITS enables access to multiple different data sources, but they have different formats, resolutions, and time scales. Thus, knowledge of data science is essential to be successful in future ITS-enabled intermodal freight transportation systems. This chapter discusses the commonly used descriptive and predictive data analytic techniques in intermodal freight transportation applications. These techniques cover the entire spectrum of univariate, bivariate, and multivariate analyses. In addition to illustrating how to apply these techniques manually, this chapter will also show how to apply them using the statistical software R. Additional exercises are provided for those who wish to apply the described techniques to more complex problems.

Huynh, Nathan↗
DOE OSTI2023

An introduction to the significance of sample size in particle analyses for nuclear forensics and radiological investigations

Particulate isotopic analysis in nuclear forensics has developed rapidly during the past two decades due to technical advances in determining the isotopic composition of individual particles. This paper introduces basic statistical concepts that can be applied by analysts to understand the importance of statistical adequacy when interpretating particle data. While these basic statistical methods provide a useful point-of-entry to particle data analysis, more sophisticated statistical and modeling approaches are needed to extract maximal information from such datasets in the future.

38 RADIATION CHEMISTRY, RADIOCHEMISTRY, AND NUCLEA↗
DOE OSTI2026

Excited-state uncertainties in lattice-QCD calculations of multi-hadron systems

Excited-state effects lead to hard-to-quantify systematic uncertainties in lattice quantum chromodynamics (LQCD) spectroscopy calculations when computationally accessible imaginary times are smaller than inverse excitation gaps, as often arises for multi-hadron systems with signal-to-noise problems. Lanczos residual bounds address this by providing two-sided constraints on energies that do not require assumptions beyond Hermiticity, but often give very conservative systematic uncertainty estimates. Here, a more-constraining set of gap bounds is introduced for hadron spectroscopy. These bounds provide tighter constraints whose validity requires an explicit assumption about an energy gap. Exactly solvable lattice field theory correlators are used to test the utility of residual and gap bounds at finite and infinite statistics. Two-sided bounds and other analysis methods are then applied to a high-statistics LQCD calculation of nucleon-nucleon scattering at $m_π\sim 800$ MeV. Generalized eigenvalue problem (GEVP) and Lanczos energy estimators are compatible when applied to the same correlator data, but analyses including different interpolating operators show statistically significant inconsistencies. However, two-sided bounds from all operators are consistent. Under the assumption that the number of energy levels below $NΔ$ and $ΔΔ$ thresholds is the same as for non-interacting nucleons, gap bounds are sufficient to constrain nucleon-nucleon scattering amplitudes at phenomenologically relevant precision. Lanczos methods further reveal that energy-eigenstate estimates from previously studied asymmetric correlators have not converged over accessible imaginary times. Nevertheless, data-driven examples demonstrate why assumptions are required to draw conclusions about the natures of two-nucleon ground states at these masses.

Detmold, William [MIT, Cambridge, CTP]↗
DOE OSTI2024

Statistical mechanical model for crack growth

Analytic relations that describe crack growth are vital for modeling experiments and building a theoretical understanding of fracture. Upon constructing an idealized model system for the crack and applying the principles of statistical thermodynamics, it is possible to formulate the rate of thermally activated crack growth as a function of load, but the result is analytically intractable. In this report an asymptotically correct theory is used to obtain analytic approximations of the crack growth rate from the fundamental theoretical formulation. These crack growth rate relations are compared to those that exist in the literature and are validated with respect to Monte Carlo calculations and experiments. The success of this approach is encouraging for future modeling endeavors that might consider more complicated fracture mechanisms, such as inhomogeneity or a reactive environment.

36 MATERIALS SCIENCE↗
DOE OSTI2024

Laplace's method applied to functional integrals

In statistical thermodynamics, partition functions are required to evaluate the current state. It is typically impossible to analytically calculate the resulting configuration integrals, but it is sometimes possible to obtain approximations in the limit of steep potential energies. This approach directly leverages Laplace’s method for approximating integrals and has been quite successful in recent applications. Motivated by models with an infinite number of degrees of freedom, this approach should be extended to the statistical thermodynamics of fields. To that end, Laplace’s method is developed for functional integrals.

97 MATHEMATICS AND COMPUTING↗
DOE OSTI2025

Modeling Protein–Protein and Protein–Ligand Interactions by the ClusPro Team in CASP16

ABSTRACT In the CASP16 experiment, our team employed hybrid computational strategies to predict both protein–protein and protein–ligand complex structures. For protein–protein docking, we combined physics‐based sampling—using ClusPro FFT docking and molecular dynamics—with AlphaFold (AF)‐based sampling, followed by AF‐based refinement. Our method produced numerous high‐accuracy complex models, including cases where AF alone failed, underscoring the critical role of physics‐based sampling alongside deep learning‐based refinement. For protein–ligand docking, we integrated the ClusPro LigTBM template‐based approach with a machine learning‐based confidence model for rescoring. The method preserves conserved interaction fragments derived from homologous complexes, followed by local resampling using physics‐based sampling and a diffusion model. Our template‐based strategy achieved a mean lDDT‐PLI of 0.69 across 233 targets, which was highly competitive. These results demonstrate that combining physics‐based modeling with AI‐driven refinement can significantly enhance the accuracy of both protein–protein and protein–ligand structure predictions.

Ashizawa, Ryota [Department of Applied Mathematics↗
DOE OSTI2026

Statistics of base polytopes in F-theory

We propose a new statistical ensemble of toric bases for elliptic Calabi-Yaus used in F-theory models, by focusing on only the convex hull of the base, i.e., the base polytope. This physically motivated coarse-graining greatly simplifies the combinatorial complexity of the part of the 4d F-theory landscape with toric bases. We develop a Monte Carlo approach that randomly samples the base polytopes within fixed boxes, with proper statistical weights. We first apply the algorithm to the set of 2d base polytopes, generating an enlarged set of toric 2d bases that include certain types of codimension-two (4,6) points, and we validate our approach against exact numbers. We then explore the set of 3d base polytopes which fit in a set of “maximal” 3d boxes, and estimate the total number of inequivalent 3d base polytopes to be 10 85 –10 90 . We provide statistical data such as the distribution of non-Higgsable gauge groups on these bases. Amusingly, a similar method can also be applied to generate reflexive polytopes in various dimensions. In both the reflexive and base polytope cases, the number of relevant polytopes obeys a Gaussian distribution as a function of the number of vertices, which can be understood in terms of other results on random polytopes in the math literature.

Differential and algebraic geometry↗
DOE OSTI2020

Efficient Distance-based Global Sensitivity Analysis for Terrestrial Ecosystem Modeling

Sensitivity analysis in terrestrial ecosystem modeling is important for understanding controlling processes, guiding model development, and targeting new observations to reduce parameter and prediction uncertainty. Complex and computationally expensive terrestrial ecosystem models (TEM) limit the number of ensemble simulations, requiring sophisticated and efficient methods to analyze sensitivities of multiple model responses to different types of parameter uncertainties. In this study, we propose a distance-based global sensitivity analysis (DGSA) method. DGSA first classifies model response samples into a small set of discrete classes and then calculates the distance between parameter frequency distributions in different classes to measure the parameter sensitivity. The principle is that, if the parameter distribution is the same in each class, then the model response is insensitive to the parameter, while a large difference in the distributions indicates the parameter is influential to the response. Built on this idea, DGSA can be applied to analyze sensitivity of a single and a group of responses to different kinds of parameter uncertainties including continuous, discrete and even stochastic. Besides the main-effect sensitivity from a single parameter, DGSA can also quantify the sensitivity from parameter interactions. Additionally, DGSA is computationally efficient which can use a small number of model evaluations to obtain an accurate and statistically significant result. We applied DGSA to two TEMs, one having eight parameters and three kinds of model responses, and the other having 47 parameters and a long-period response. We demonstrated that DGSA can be used for sensitivity problems with multiple responses and high-dimensional parameters efficiently.

Lu, Dan↗