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All sourcesNASA NTRSDOE OSTI
NASA NTRS1993

Discrete ordinates solutions of nongray radiative transfer with diffusely reflecting walls

Nongray gas radiation in a plane parallel slab bounded by gray, diffusely reflecting walls is studied using the discrete ordinates method. The spectral equation of transfer is averaged over a narrow wavenumber interval preserving the spectral correlation effect. The governing equations are derived by considering the history of multiple reflections between two reflecting wails. A closure approximation is applied so that only a finite number of reflections have to be explicitly included. The closure solutions express the physics of the problem to a very high degree and show relatively little error. Numerical solutions are obtained by applying a statistical narrow-band model for gas properties and a discrete ordinates code. The net radiative wail heat fluxes and the radiative source distributions are obtained for different temperature profiles. A zeroth-degree formulation, where no wall reflection is handled explicitly, is sufficient to predict the radiative transfer accurately for most cases considered, when compared with increasingly accurate solutions based on explicitly tracing a larger number of wail reflections without any closure approximation applied.

Menart, J. A.↗
NASA NTRS1992

Implementation of quality improvement techniques for management and technical processes in the ACRV project

Total Quality Management (TQM) is a cooperative form of doing business that relies on the talents of everyone in an organization to continually improve quality and productivity, using teams and an assortment of statistical and measurement tools. The objective of the activities described in this paper was to implement effective improvement tools and techniques in order to build work processes which support good management and technical decisions and actions which are crucial to the success of the ACRV project. The objectives were met by applications in both the technical and management areas. The management applications involved initiating focused continuous improvement projects with widespread team membership. The technical applications involved applying proven statistical tools and techniques to the technical issues associated with the ACRV Project. Specific activities related to the objective included working with a support contractor team to improve support processes, examining processes involved in international activities, a series of tutorials presented to the New Initiatives Office and support contractors, a briefing to NIO managers, and work with the NIO Q+ Team. On the technical side, work included analyzing data from the large-scale W.A.T.E.R. test, landing mode trade analyses, and targeting probability calculations. The results of these efforts will help to develop a disciplined, ongoing process for producing fundamental decisions and actions that shape and guide the ACRV organization .

Raiman, Laura B.↗
NASA NTRS1997

On the Use of Statistics in Design and the Implications for Deterministic Computer Experiments

Perhaps the most prevalent use of statistics in engineering design is through Taguchi's parameter and robust design -- using orthogonal arrays to compute signal-to-noise ratios in a process of design improvement. In our view, however, there is an equally exciting use of statistics in design that could become just as prevalent: it is the concept of metamodeling whereby statistical models are built to approximate detailed computer analysis codes. Although computers continue to get faster, analysis codes always seem to keep pace so that their computational time remains non-trivial. Through metamodeling, approximations of these codes are built that are orders of magnitude cheaper to run. These metamodels can then be linked to optimization routines for fast analysis, or they can serve as a bridge for integrating analysis codes across different domains. In this paper we first review metamodeling techniques that encompass design of experiments, response surface methodology, Taguchi methods, neural networks, inductive learning, and kriging. We discuss their existing applications in engineering design and then address the dangers of applying traditional statistical techniques to approximate deterministic computer analysis codes. We conclude with recommendations for the appropriate use of metamodeling techniques in given situations and how common pitfalls can be avoided.

Simpson, Timothy W.↗
NASA NTRS2012

Using Statistical Multivariable Models to Understand the Relationship Between Interplanetary Coronal Mass Ejecta and Magnetic Flux Ropes

In-situ measurements of interplanetary coronal mass ejections (ICMEs) display a wide range of properties. A distinct subset, "magnetic clouds" (MCs), are readily identifiable by a smooth rotation in an enhanced magnetic field, together with an unusually low solar wind proton temperature. In this study, we analyze Ulysses spacecraft measurements to systematically investigate five possible explanations for why some ICMEs are observed to be MCs and others are not: i) An observational selection effect; that is, all ICMEs do in fact contain MCs, but the trajectory of the spacecraft through the ICME determines whether the MC is actually encountered; ii) interactions of an erupting flux rope (PR) with itself or between neighboring FRs, which produce complex structures in which the coherent magnetic structure has been destroyed; iii) an evolutionary process, such as relaxation to a low plasma-beta state that leads to the formation of an MC; iv) the existence of two (or more) intrinsic initiation mechanisms, some of which produce MCs and some that do not; or v) MCs are just an easily identifiable limit in an otherwise corntinuous spectrum of structures. We apply quantitative statistical models to assess these ideas. In particular, we use the Akaike information criterion (AIC) to rank the candidate models and a Gaussian mixture model (GMM) to uncover any intrinsic clustering of the data. Using a logistic regression, we find that plasma-beta, CME width, and the ratio O(sup 7) / O(sup 6) are the most significant predictor variables for the presence of an MC. Moreover, the propensity for an event to be identified as an MC decreases with heliocentric distance. These results tend to refute ideas ii) and iii). GMM clustering analysis further identifies three distinct groups of ICMEs; two of which match (at the 86% level) with events independently identified as MCs, and a third that matches with non-MCs (68 % overlap), Thus, idea v) is not supported. Choosing between ideas i) and iv) is more challenging, since they may effectively be indistinguishable from one another by a single in-situ spacecraft. We offer some suggestions on how future studies may address this.

Riley, P.↗
NASA NTRS1972

Analysis of stress-rupture data from S-glass composites.

Both composite and free strands have been tested to study matrix effectiveness. Glass from different lots were used, and processing parameters were varied to demonstrate the effects of material variability. The statistical patterns that emerge from these experiments show that lifetime distributions are characteristically skewed. As a class, the lifetime distributions are well approximated by the reduced form of the Weibull distribution. The strength retention data display little early degradation. The retained-strength distributions can also be classed as Weibull distributions. A statistical model applied to the data gives predictions of progressive failure, strength retention path, and expected life for two basic types of internal fracture processes.

Robinson, E. Y.↗
NASA NTRS1978

Prediction and monitoring of clear air turbulence: An evaluation of the applicability of the rawinsonde system

The applicability of rawinsonde data for either detection or prediction of clear air turbulence is discussed. The mechanism currently believed responsible for the development of CAT is reviewed. Since previous studies determined that the most significant factor for the existence of turbulent layers is the magnitude of the vertical shear, certain theoretically derived shear criteria was applied to statistical and diagnostic comparisons of rawinsonde and Jimsphere/Jimsonde conjunctive vertical profiles. It is determined that the Rawinsonde system cannot reliably be used as a CAT detector in a single-station sense.

Keller, J. L.↗
NASA NTRS1985

Akterations/corrections to the BRASS Program

Corrections applied to statistical programs contained in two subroutines of the Bed Rest Analysis Software System (BRASS) are summarized. Two subroutines independently calculate significant values within the BRASS program.

Brand, S. N.↗
NASA NTRS1986

A structural-stochastic model for the analysis and synthesis of cloud images

A structural-stochastic image model is developed for the analysis and synthesis of cloud images. The ability of the model to characterize the visual appearance of cloud fields observed by satellite with a limited number of parameters is demonstrated. The model merges structural and stochastic information, the stochastic model acting as a local statistical operator applied to the output of the structural model. The structural or large-scale organization of the scene is retrieved from the two-dimensional Fourier representation of the digital image. The pattern generated by the major Fourier components provides a first guess of the scene. The stochastic aspect is described by a Markov model of texture that assumes a binomial probability distribution for the local grey-level variability. This Markov model provides four parameters that represent the clustering strength in the horizontal, vertical and diagonal directions. These parameters are estimated by a standard maximum-likelihood technique. The image can be reproduced with a fair degree of verisimilitude from these parameters. The data compression factor is of the order of one hundred to several hundreds.

Garand, L.↗
NASA NTRS1992

Invariant two-dimensional structures of vorticity field in nonviscous fluid

It is shown that a fluid flow which are invariant under translations along their vorticity field directions can be described in terms of a formally 2D system. Its nonviscous behavior of the scalar vorticity is governed by Hamiltonian dynamics, similar to the 2D line vortex case. Applying a statistical mechanical method, the equilibrium distribution of the vorticity field for such a general 2D system is shown to obey a nonlinear partial differential equation that is a generalization of the sinh-Poisson equation derived by Montgomery and Joyce (1973, 1974). Thus, if the domain containing the fluid is finite, similar negative temperature states may occur and the distribution of the vorticity intensity may become localized in space. The results are believed to have applications in studying large-scale partial and temporal properties of flows having small but nonzero viscosity. The analysis can probably be extended to other fluid systems with curved magnetic field lines.

Chen, Hudong↗
NASA NTRS1997

New Research by CCD Scanning for Comets and Asteroids

Spacewatch was begun in 1980; its purpose is to explore the various populations of small objects within the solar system. Spacewatch provides data for studies of comets and asteroids, finds potential targets for space missions, and provides information on the environmental problem of possible impacts. Moving objects are discovered by scanning the sky with charge-coupled devices (CCDS) on the 0.9-meter Spacewatch Telescope of the University of Arizona on Kitt Peak. Each Spacewatch scan consists of three drift scan passes over an area of sky using a CCD filtered to a bandpass of 0.5-1.0 pm (approximately V+R+I with peak sensitivity at 0.7 pm). The effective exposure time for each pass is 143 seconds multiplied by the secant of the declination. The area covered by each scan is 32 arcminutes in declination by about 28 minutes of time in right ascension. The image scale is 1.05 arcseconds per pixel. Three passes take about 1.5 hours to complete and show motions of individual objects over a one hour time baseline. The limiting magnitude is about 21.5 in single scans. CCD scanning was developed by Spacewatch in the early 1980s, with improvements still being made - particularly by bringing a new 1.8-m Spacewatch Telescope on line. In the meantime, we have been finding some 30,000 new asteroids per year and applying their statistics to the study of the collisional history of the solar system. Spacewatch had found a total of 150 Near-Earth Asteroids (NEAS) and 8 new comets, and had recovered one lost comet (P/Spitaler in 1993). Spacewatch is also efficient in recovery of known comets and has detected and reported positions for more than 137,000 asteroids, mostly new ones in the main belt, including more than 10,882 asteroids designated by the Minor Planet Center (MPC).

Gehrels, Tom↗
NASA NTRS1997

New Research by CCD Scanning for Comets and Asteroids

The purpose of Spacewatch is to explore the various populations of small objects within the solar system. Spacewatch provides data for studies of comets and asteroids, finds potential targets for space missions, and provides information on the environmental problem of possible impacts. Moving objects are discovered by scanning the sky with charge-coupled devices (CCDs) on the 0.9-meter Spacewatch Telescope of the University of Arizona on Kitt Peak. Each Spacewatch scan consists of three drift scan passes over an area of sky using a CCD filtered to a bandpass of 0.5-1.0 microns (approximately V+R+I with peak sensitivity at 0.7 micron). The effective exposure time for each pass is 143 seconds multiplied by the secant of the declination. We have been finding some 30,000 new asteroids per year and applying their statistics to the study of the collisional history of the solar system. As of the end of the observing run of Nov. 1997, Spacewatch had found a total of 153 Near-Earth Asteroids (NEAs) and 8 new comets since the project began in the 1980s, and had recovered one lost comet. The total number of NEAs found by Spacewatch big enough to be hazardous if they were to impact the Earth is 36. Spacewatch is also efficient in recovery of known comets and has detected and reported positions for more than 137,000 asteroids, mostly new ones in the main belt, including more than 16,000 asteroids designated by the Minor Planet Center (MPC).

Gehrels, Tom↗
NASA NTRS1999

Uncertainty Analysis of Instrument Calibration and Application

Experimental aerodynamic researchers require estimated precision and bias uncertainties of measured physical quantities, typically at 95 percent confidence levels. Uncertainties of final computed aerodynamic parameters are obtained by propagation of individual measurement uncertainties through the defining functional expressions. In this paper, rigorous mathematical techniques are extended to determine precision and bias uncertainties of any instrument-sensor system. Through this analysis, instrument uncertainties determined through calibration are now expressed as functions of the corresponding measurement for linear and nonlinear univariate and multivariate processes. Treatment of correlated measurement precision error is developed. During laboratory calibration, calibration standard uncertainties are assumed to be an order of magnitude less than those of the instrument being calibrated. Often calibration standards do not satisfy this assumption. This paper applies rigorous statistical methods for inclusion of calibration standard uncertainty and covariance due to the order of their application. The effects of mathematical modeling error on calibration bias uncertainty are quantified. The effects of experimental design on uncertainty are analyzed. The importance of replication is emphasized, techniques for estimation of both bias and precision uncertainties using replication are developed. Statistical tests for stationarity of calibration parameters over time are obtained.

Tripp, John S.↗
NASA NTRS2001

The Variability of the Horizontal Circulation in the Troposphere and Stratosphere: A Comparison

The variability of the horizontal circulation in the stratosphere and troposphere of the Northern Hemisphere (NH) is compared by using various approaches. Spatial degrees of freedom (dof) on different time scales were derived. Modes of variability were computed in geopotential height fields at the tropospheric and stratospheric pressure levels by applying multivariate statistical approaches. Features of the spatial and temporal variability of the winterly zonal wind were studied with the help of recurrence and persistence analyses. The geopotential height and zonally-averaged zonal wind at the 50-, 500- and 1000-hPa level are used to investigate the behavior of the horizontal circulation in the lower stratosphere, mid-troposphere and at the near surface level, respectively. It is illustrated that the features of the variability of the horizontal circulation are very similar in the mid-troposphere and at the near surface level. Due to the filtering of tropospheric disturbances by the stratospheric and upper tropospheric zonal mean flow, the variability of the stratospheric circulation exhibits less spatial complexity than the circulation at tropospheric pressure levels. There exist enormous differences in the number of degrees of freedom (or free variability modes) between both atmospheric layers. Results of the analyses clearly show that the concept of a zonally symmetric AO with a simple structure in the troposphere similar to the one in the stratosphere is not valid. It is concluded that the spatially filtered climate change signal can be detected earlier in the stratosphere than in the mid-troposphere or at the near surface level.

Perlwitz, Judith↗
NASA NTRS2004

An Empirical Cumulus Parameterization Scheme for a Global Spectral Model

Realistic vertical heating and drying profiles in a cumulus scheme is important for obtaining accurate weather forecasts. A new empirical cumulus parameterization scheme based on a procedure to improve the vertical distribution of heating and moistening over the tropics is developed. The empirical cumulus parameterization scheme (ECPS) utilizes profiles of Tropical Rainfall Measuring Mission (TRMM) based heating and moistening derived from the European Centre for Medium- Range Weather Forecasts (ECMWF) analysis. A dimension reduction technique through rotated principal component analysis (RPCA) is performed on the vertical profiles of heating (Q1) and drying (Q2) over the convective regions of the tropics, to obtain the dominant modes of variability. Analysis suggests that most of the variance associated with the observed profiles can be explained by retaining the first three modes. The ECPS then applies a statistical approach in which Q1 and Q2 are expressed as a linear combination of the first three dominant principal components which distinctly explain variance in the troposphere as a function of the prevalent large-scale dynamics. The principal component (PC) score which quantifies the contribution of each PC to the corresponding loading profile is estimated through a multiple screening regression method which yields the PC score as a function of the large-scale variables. The profiles of Q1 and Q2 thus obtained are found to match well with the observed profiles. The impact of the ECPS is investigated in a series of short range (1-3 day) prediction experiments using the Florida State University global spectral model (FSUGSM, T126L14). Comparisons between short range ECPS forecasts and those with the modified Kuo scheme show a very marked improvement in the skill in ECPS forecasts. This improvement in the forecast skill with ECPS emphasizes the importance of incorporating realistic vertical distributions of heating and drying in the model cumulus scheme. This also suggests that in the absence of explicit models for convection, the proposed statistical scheme improves the modeling of the vertical distribution of heating and moistening in areas of deep convection.

Rajendran, K.↗
NASA NTRS2006

Evaluation Of Risk And Possible Mitigation Schemes For Previously Unidentified Hazards

This report presents the results of arc track testing conducted to determine if such a transfer of power to un-energized wires is possible and/or likely during an arcing event, and to evaluate an array of protection schemes that may significantly reduce the possibility of such a transfer. The results of these experiments may be useful for determining the level of protection necessary to guard against spurious voltage and current being applied to safety critical circuits. It was not the purpose of these experiments to determine the probability of the initiation of an arc track event only if an initiation did occur could it cause the undesired event: an inadvertent thruster firing. The primary wire insulation used in the Orbiter is aromatic polyimide, or Kapton , a construction known to arc track under certain conditions [3]. Previous Boeing testing has shown that arc tracks can initiate in aromatic polyimide insulated 28 volts direct current (VDC) power circuits using more realistic techniques such as chafing with an aluminum blade (simulating the corner of an avionics box or lip of a wire tray), or vibration of an aluminum plate against a wire bundle [4]. Therefore, an arc initiation technique was chosen that provided a reliable and consistent technique of starting the arc and not a realistic simulation of a scenario on the vehicle. Once an arc is initiated, the current, power and propagation characteristics of the arc depend on the power source, wire gauge and insulation type, circuit protection and series resistance rather than type of initiation. The initiation method employed for these tests was applying an oil and graphite mixture to the ends of a powered twisted pair wire. The flight configuration of the heater circuits, the fuel/oxider (or ox) wire, and the RCS jet solenoid were modeled in the test configuration so that the behavior of these components during an arcing event could be studied. To determine if coil activation would occur with various protection wire schemes, 145 tests were conducted using various fuel/ox wire alternatives (shielded and unshielded) and/or different combinations of polytetrafuloroethylene (PTFE), Mystik tape and convoluted wraps to prevent unwanted coil activation. Test results were evaluated along with other pertinent data and information to develop a mitigation strategy for an inadvertent RCS firing. The SSP evaluated civilian aircraft wiring failures to search for aging trends in assessing the wire-short hazard. Appendix 2 applies Weibull statistical methods to the same data with a similar purpose.

Linzey, William↗
NASA NTRS2009

Hybrid NN/SVM Computational System for Optimizing Designs

A computational method and system based on a hybrid of an artificial neural network (NN) and a support vector machine (SVM) (see figure) has been conceived as a means of maximizing or minimizing an objective function, optionally subject to one or more constraints. Such maximization or minimization could be performed, for example, to optimize solve a data-regression or data-classification problem or to optimize a design associated with a response function. A response function can be considered as a subset of a response surface, which is a surface in a vector space of design and performance parameters. A typical example of a design problem that the method and system can be used to solve is that of an airfoil, for which a response function could be the spatial distribution of pressure over the airfoil. In this example, the response surface would describe the pressure distribution as a function of the operating conditions and the geometric parameters of the airfoil. The use of NNs to analyze physical objects in order to optimize their responses under specified physical conditions is well known. NN analysis is suitable for multidimensional interpolation of data that lack structure and enables the representation and optimization of a succession of numerical solutions of increasing complexity or increasing fidelity to the real world. NN analysis is especially useful in helping to satisfy multiple design objectives. Feedforward NNs can be used to make estimates based on nonlinear mathematical models. One difficulty associated with use of a feedforward NN arises from the need for nonlinear optimization to determine connection weights among input, intermediate, and output variables. It can be very expensive to train an NN in cases in which it is necessary to model large amounts of information. Less widely known (in comparison with NNs) are support vector machines (SVMs), which were originally applied in statistical learning theory. In terms that are necessarily oversimplified to fit the scope of this article, an SVM can be characterized as an algorithm that (1) effects a nonlinear mapping of input vectors into a higher-dimensional feature space and (2) involves a dual formulation of governing equations and constraints. One advantageous feature of the SVM approach is that an objective function (which one seeks to minimize to obtain coefficients that define an SVM mathematical model) is convex, so that unlike in the cases of many NN models, any local minimum of an SVM model is also a global minimum.

Rai, Man Mohan↗