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At least 73 records · Page 4

Use of Probabilistic Engineering Methods in the Detailed Design and Development Phases of the NASA Ares Launch Vehicle

The United States National Aeronautics and Space Administration (NASA) is in the midst of a space exploration program called Constellation to send crew and cargo to the international Space Station, to the moon, and beyond. As part of the Constellation program, a new launch vehicle, Ares I, is being developed by NASA Marshall Space Flight Center. Designing a launch vehicle with high reliability and increased safety requires a significant effort in understanding design variability and design uncertainty at the various levels of the design (system, element, subsystem, component, etc.) and throughout the various design phases (conceptual, preliminary design, etc.). In a previous paper [1] we discussed a probabilistic functional failure analysis approach intended mainly to support system requirements definition, system design, and element design during the early design phases. This paper provides an overview of the application of probabilistic engineering methods to support the detailed subsystem/component design and development as part of the "Design for Reliability and Safety" approach for the new Ares I Launch Vehicle. Specifically, the paper discusses probabilistic engineering design analysis cases that had major impact on the design and manufacturing of the Space Shuttle hardware. The cases represent important lessons learned from the Space Shuttle Program and clearly demonstrate the significance of probabilistic engineering analysis in better understanding design deficiencies and identifying potential design improvement for Ares I. The paper also discusses the probabilistic functional failure analysis approach applied during the early design phases of Ares I and the forward plans for probabilistic design analysis in the detailed design and development phases.

Fayssal, Safie↗

An Integrated Analysis-Test Approach

This viewgraph presentation provides an overview of a project to develop a computer program which integrates data analysis and test procedures. The software application aims to propose a new perspective to traditional mechanical analysis and test procedures and to integrate pre-test and test analysis calculation methods. The program also should also be able to be used in portable devices and allows for the 'quasi-real time' analysis of data sent by electronic means. Test methods reviewed during this presentation include: shaker swept sine and random tests, shaker shock mode tests, shaker base driven model survey tests and acoustic tests.

Kaufman, Daniel↗

Close Approach Prediction Analysis of the Earth Science Constellation with the Fengyun-1C Debris

Routine satellite operations for the Earth Science Constellation (ESC) include collision risk assessment between members of the constellation and other orbiting space objects. Each day, close approach predictions are generated by a U.S. Department of Defense Joint Space Operations Center Orbital Safety Analyst using the high accuracy Space Object Catalog maintained by the Air Force's 1" Space Control Squadron. Prediction results and other ancillary data such as state vector information are sent to NASAJGoddard Space Flight Center's (GSFC's) Collision Risk Assessment analysis team for review. Collision analysis is performed and the GSFC team works with the ESC member missions to develop risk reduction strategies as necessary. This paper presents various close approach statistics for the ESC. The ESC missions have been affected by debris from the recent anti-satellite test which destroyed the Chinese Fengyun- 1 C satellite. The paper also presents the percentage of close approach events induced by the Fengyun-1C debris, and presents analysis results which predict the future effects on the ESC caused by this event. Specifically, the Fengyun-1C debris is propagated for twenty years using high-performance computing technology and close approach predictions are generated for the ESC. The percent increase in the total number of conjunction events is considered to be an estimate of the collision risk due to the Fengyun-1C break- UP.

Duncan, Matthew↗

Assessing Reliability of NDE Flaw Detection Using Smaller Number of Demonstration Data Points

The paper provides an engineering analysis approach for assessing reliability of NDE flaw detection using smaller number of demonstration data points. It explores dependence of probability of detection (POD), probability of false positive (POF), on contrast-to-noise ratio, and net decision threshold-to-noise ratio in a simulated data; and draws some generically applicable inferences to devise the approach. ASTM nondestructive evaluation standards provide requirements on signal-to-noise ratio and/or contrast-to-noise ratio in order to provide reliable flaw detection and limit false positive calls. POD analysis of inspection test data results in an estimated flaw size, denoted by 𝑎90/95. This flaw size has 90% POD and minimum 95% confidence. POF is also estimated in the analysis. POD demonstration requires specimens with flaws of known size. In many situations, it is very expensive to produce the large number of flaws required for the POD analysis. In some situations, only real flaws can truly represent the flaws for demonstration. Real flaws of correct size and location in part configuration specimen may be difficult to produce, if not impossible. Here, an engineering analysis approach is devised using simulation to assess reliability of NDE technique when a limited number of flaws are available for demonstration. In this simulation, a technique is considered reliable, if it provides flaw detectability size equal to or better than the theoretical 𝑎90𝑡ℎ used in simulation and also provides a POF less than or equal to a chosen value. The paper uses simulated signal response versus flaw size data to devise the approach. Linear correlation is used between the signal response data and flaw size. POD software mh1823 uses generalized linear model (GLM) in POD analysis after transforming the flaw size and signal response, if needed, using logarithm. Therefore, this approach is in agreement with the linear signal correlation used in mh1823. Using the POD analysis of data, generic conditions on contrast-to-noise ratio and net decision threshold-to-noise ratio are derived for reliable flaw detection. In order to assess technique reliability using the engineering approach, signal response-to-flaw size correlation about the flaw size of concern is needed. In addition, measurement of noise is also needed. If the technique meets the above requirements, assumption of linear signal-to-flaw size correlation and conditions on noise, then the technique can be assessed using this analysis as it fits the underlying POD model used here. The approach is conservative and is designed to provide a larger flaw size compared to the POD approach. Such NDE technique assessment approach, although, not as rigorous as POD, can be cost effective if the larger flaw size can be tolerated. Typically, this is a situation for all quality control NDE inspections. Here, an NDE technique needs to be reliable and 𝑎90/95 is not estimated, but the assessed flaw size is assumed to be larger than the unknown a90 due to conservative factors or margins. Applicability of the approach for assessing reliability of flaw detection in x-ray radiography and 2D imaging in general is also explored.

Koshti, Ajay M.↗

Finite element thermal-structural analyses of a cable-stiffened orbiting antenna

Finite element thermal-structural analyses of a cable-stiffened orbiting antenna are presented. The determination of prestresses in the antenna is described first. Heating and thermal analyses for orbiting space structures are then discussed briefly. Structural deformations and stresses are presented for three finite element structural analysis approaches: (1) small deflections, (2) stress-stiffening, and (3) large deflections. The accuracy of the three analysis approaches is evaluated for the orbiting antenna at different prestress levels.

Thornton, E. A.↗

Evaluation of a cost-effective loads approach

A shock spectra/impedance method for loads prediction is used to estimate member loads for the Viking Orbiter, a 7800-lb interplanetary spacecraft that has been designed using transient loads analysis techniques. The transient loads analysis approach leads to a lightweight structure but requires complex and costly analyses. To reduce complexity and cost a shock spectra/impedance method is currently being used to design the Mariner Jupiter Saturn spacecraft. This method has the advantage of using low-cost in-house loads analysis techniques and typically results in more conservative structural loads. The method is evaluated by comparing the increase in Viking member loads to the loads obtained by the transient loads analysis approach. An estimate of the weight penalty incurred by using this method is presented. The paper also compares the calculated flight loads from the transient loads analyses and the shock spectra/impedance method to measured flight data.

Garba, J. A.↗

Evaluation of a cost-effective loads approach

A shock spectra/impedance method for loads predictions is used to estimate member loads for the Viking Orbiter, a 7800-lb interplanetary spacecraft that has been designed using transient loads analysis techniques. The transient loads analysis approach leads to a lightweight structure but requires complex and costly analyses. To reduce complexity and cost, a shock spectra/impedance method is currently being used to design the Mariner Jupiter Saturn spacecraft. This method has the advantage of using low-cost in-house loads analysis techniques and typically results in more conservative structural loads. The method is evaluated by comparing the increase in Viking member loads to the loads obtained by the transient loads analysis approach. An estimate of the weight penalty incurred by using this method is presented. The paper also compares the calculated flight loads from the transient loads analyses and the shock spectra/impedance method to measured flight data.

Garba, J. A.↗

Unique Approaches to Analysis of Time-Variable Gravity from GRACE

We have developed an innovative analysis strategy for analysis of GRACE data. We have developed a capability to recover local/regional gravity changes using non-global functional representations (Le. surface anomalies vs. global spherical harmonics) h m the GRACE data. Our approach can take regularly or irregularly shaped regions, populate them with surface anomaly blocks of suitable area and solve for the resulting mass flux with respect to a mean field. The surface mass or gravity anomalies benefit from the application of spatial and temporal constraints to add stability to the solution. In this paper we discuss the analysis of four months of GRACE Level 1B data (accelerometry, intersatellite data, attitude information and precise orbits) from July to October 2003, recently released to the GRACE Science Team. We compare and contrast this local approach to gravity recovery, with the more conventional approach using global spherical harmonics. We review simulations of this technique which allow us to pinpoint optimum strategies for applications of this local gravity recovery approach.

Lemoine, Frank G.↗

A Proposed Approach to Studying Urban Air Mobility Missions Including an Initial Exploration of Mission Requirements

Urban air mobility (UAM) is an emerging aviation market that seeks to revolutionize mobility around metropolitan areas via a safe, efficient, and accessible on-demand air transportation system for passengers and cargo. In this paper we describe our three-pronged approach to studying passenger-carrying UAM missions, and we detail the first phase of this approach, which consists of defining an initial set of requirements for multiple exemplar UAM missions. The development of these mission requirements provides justifiable assumptions that feed the second phase of the approach, which is performing aircraft conceptual design studies. Vehicle design is not included in this paper, but the work described here will define sizing missions for follow-on design and sizing studies. The aircraft that emerge from the design studies can then feed the third phase of our UAM analysis approach, which involves simulating an entire UAM network over a metropolitan area to study transportation-system level characteristics. Iteration between each of the three phases of the UAM analysis approach will be necessary to propagate lessons learned as our research progresses and as the UAM community coalesces on a more unified vision for UAM. Therefore, we anticipate that the mission requirements set forth in this paper will be modified over time as the urban air mobility concept matures.

Patterson, Michael D.↗

Probabilistic Design Analysis (PDA) Approach to Determine the Probability of Cross-System Failures for a Space Launch Vehicle

Quantifying the probability of significant launch vehicle failure scenarios for a given design, while still in the design process, is critical to mission success and to the safety of the astronauts. Probabilistic risk assessment (PRA) is chosen from many system safety and reliability tools to verify the loss of mission (LOM) and loss of crew (LOC) requirements set by the NASA Program Office. To support the integrated vehicle PRA, probabilistic design analysis (PDA) models are developed by using vehicle design and operation data to better quantify failure probabilities and to better understand the characteristics of a failure and its outcome. This PDA approach uses a physics-based model to describe the system behavior and response for a given failure scenario. Each driving parameter in the model is treated as a random variable with a distribution function. Monte Carlo simulation is used to perform probabilistic calculations to statistically obtain the failure probability. Sensitivity analyses are performed to show how input parameters affect the predicted failure probability, providing insight for potential design improvements to mitigate the risk. The paper discusses the application of the PDA approach in determining the probability of failure for two scenarios from the NASA Ares I project

Shih, Ann T.↗

Universal approach to analysis of cavitation and liquid-impingement erosion data

Cavitation erosion experimental data was analyzed by using normalization and curve-fitting techniques. Data were taken from experiments on several materials tested in both a rotating disk device and a magnetostriction apparatus. Cumulative average volume loss rate and time data were normalized relative to the peak erosion rate and the time to peak erosion rate, respectively. From this process a universal approach was derived that can include data on specific materials from different test devices for liquid impingement and cavitation erosion studies.

Rao, P. V.↗

Calibration and Data Analysis of the MC-130 Air Balance

Design, calibration, calibration analysis, and intended use of the MC-130 air balance are discussed. The MC-130 balance is an 8.0 inch diameter force balance that has two separate internal air flow systems and one external bellows system. The manual calibration of the balance consisted of a total of 1854 data points with both unpressurized and pressurized air flowing through the balance. A subset of 1160 data points was chosen for the calibration data analysis. The regression analysis of the subset was performed using two fundamentally different analysis approaches. First, the data analysis was performed using a recently developed extension of the Iterative Method. This approach fits gage outputs as a function of both applied balance loads and bellows pressures while still allowing the application of the iteration scheme that is used with the Iterative Method. Then, for comparison, the axial force was also analyzed using the Non-Iterative Method. This alternate approach directly fits loads as a function of measured gage outputs and bellows pressures and does not require a load iteration. The regression models used by both the extended Iterative and Non-Iterative Method were constructed such that they met a set of widely accepted statistical quality requirements. These requirements lead to reliable regression models and prevent overfitting of data because they ensure that no hidden near-linear dependencies between regression model terms exist and that only statistically significant terms are included. Finally, a comparison of the axial force residuals was performed. Overall, axial force estimates obtained from both methods show excellent agreement as the differences of the standard deviation of the axial force residuals are on the order of 0.001 % of the axial force capacity.

Booth, Dennis↗

Asteroid approach covariance analysis for the Clementine mission

The Clementine mission is designed to test Strategic Defense Initiative Organization (SDIO) technology, the Brilliant Pebbles and Brilliant Eyes sensors, by mapping the moon surface and flying by the asteroid Geographos. The capability of two of the instruments available on board the spacecraft, the lidar (laser radar) and the UV/Visible camera is used in the covariance analysis to obtain the spacecraft delivery uncertainties at the asteroid. These uncertainties are due primarily to asteroid ephemeris uncertainties. On board optical navigation reduces the uncertainty in the knowledge of the spacecraft position in the direction perpendicular to the incoming asymptote to a one-sigma value of under 1 km, at the closest approach distance of 100 km. The uncertainty in the knowledge of the encounter time is about 0.1 seconds for a flyby velocity of 10.85 km/s. The magnitude of these uncertainties is due largely to Center Finding Errors (CFE). These systematic errors represent the accuracy expected in locating the center of the asteroid in the optical navigation images, in the absence of a topographic model for the asteroid. The direction of the incoming asymptote cannot be estimated accurately until minutes before the asteroid flyby, and correcting for it would require autonomous navigation. Orbit determination errors dominate over maneuver execution errors, and the final delivery accuracy attained is basically the orbit determination uncertainty before the final maneuver.

Ionasescu, Rodica↗

Response to Toward Unified Satellite Climatology of Aerosol Properties: MODIS versus MISR versus AERONET - 3

A recent paper by Mishchenko et al. compares near-coincident MISR, MODIS, and AERONET aerosol optical depth (AOD), and gives a much less favorable impression of the utility of the satellite products than that presented by the instrument teams and other groups. We trace the reasons for the differing pictures to whether known and previously documented limitations of the products are taken into account in the assessments. Specifically, the analysis approaches differ primarily in (1) the treatment of outliers, (2) the application of absolute vs. relative criteria for testing agreement, and (3) the ways in which seasonally varying spatial distributions of coincident retrievals are taken into account. Mishchenko et al. also do not distinguish between observational sampling differences and retrieval algorithm error. We assess the implications of the different analysis approaches, and cite examples demonstrating how the MISR and MODIS aerosol products have been applied successfully to a range of scientific investigations.

Kahn, Ralph A.↗

The MSFC Collaborative Engineering Process for Preliminary Design and Concept Definition Studies

This paper describes a collaborative engineering process developed by the Marshall Space Flight Center's Advanced Concepts Office for performing rapid preliminary design and mission concept definition studies for potential future NASA missions. The process has been developed and demonstrated for a broad range of mission studies including human space exploration missions, space transportation system studies and in-space science missions. The paper will describe the design team structure and specialized analytical tools that have been developed to enable a unique rapid design process. The collaborative engineering process consists of integrated analysis approach for mission definition, vehicle definition and system engineering. The relevance of the collaborative process elements to the standard NASA NPR 7120.1 system engineering process will be demonstrated. The study definition process flow for each study discipline will be will be outlined beginning with the study planning process, followed by definition of ground rules and assumptions, definition of study trades, mission analysis and subsystem analyses leading to a standardized set of mission concept study products. The flexibility of the collaborative engineering design process to accommodate a wide range of study objectives from technology definition and requirements definition to preliminary design studies will be addressed. The paper will also describe the applicability of the collaborative engineering process to include an integrated systems analysis approach for evaluating the functional requirements of evolving system technologies and capabilities needed to meet the needs of future NASA programs.

Mulqueen, Jack↗

Analytical verification of undesirable properties of direct model reference adaptive control algorithms

The present investigation is concerned with a new method, called 'final approach analysis', which has been developed to analyze the dynamic properties of a class of direct adaptive control algorithms. Particular attention is given to the robustness of these algorithms to a number of aspects. These aspects are related to the generation of high frequencies in the plant control signal, to excessive bandwidth of the adaptive control loop resulting in excitation of unmodeled dynamics, and, consequently, leading to dynamic instability of the closed-loop adaptive system, and, thirdly, to noise corrupted measurements. The final approach analysis is useful because it can be used in a constructive way to adjust the adaptive gains so as to limit the closed-loop system bandwidth and to ameliorate some of the undesirable characteristics of existing adaptive algorithms.

Rohrs, C. E.↗

Stress Analysis of Composite Cylindrical Shells With an Elliptical Cutout

A special-purpose, semi-analytical solution method for determining the stress and deformation fields in a thin laminated-composite cylindrical shell with an elliptical cutout is presented. The analysis includes the effects of cutout size, shape, and orientation; nonuniform wall thickness; oval-cross-section eccentricity; and loading conditions. The loading conditions include uniform tension, uniform torsion, and pure bending. The analysis approach is based on the principle of stationary potential energy and uses Lagrange multipliers to relax the kinematic admissibility requirements on the displacement representations through the use of idealized elastic edge restraints. Specifying appropriate stiffness values for the elastic extensional and rotational edge restraints (springs) allows the imposition of the kinematic boundary conditions in an indirect manner, which enables the use of a broader set of functions for representing the displacement fields. Selected results of parametric studies are presented for several geometric parameters that demonstrate that analysis approach is a powerful means for developing design criteria for laminated-composite shells.

Nemeth, M. P.↗