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At least 73 records · Page 4

Tonal Emergence: An agent-based model of tonal coordination

Humans have a remarkable capacity for coordination. Our ability to interact and act jointly in groups is crucial to our success as a species. Joint Action (JA) research has often concerned itself with simplistic behaviors in highly constrained laboratory tasks. But there has been a growing interest in understanding complex coordination in more open-ended contexts. In this regard, collective music improvisation has emerged as a fascinating model domain for studying basic JA mechanisms in an unconstrained and highly sophisticated setting. A number of empirical studies have begun to elucidate coordination mechanisms underlying joint musical improvisation, but these empirical findings have yet to be cached out in a working computational model. The present work fills this gap by presenting TonalEmergence, an idealized agent-based model of improvised musical coordination. TonalEmergence models the coordination of notes played by improvisers to generate harmony (i.e., tonality), by simulating agents that stochastically generate notes biased towards maximizing harmonic consonance given their partner’s previous notes. Here, the model replicates an interesting empirical result from a previous study of professional jazz pianists: feedback loops of mutual adaptation between interacting agents support the production of consonant harmony. The model is further explored to show how complex tonal dynamics, such as the production and dissolution of stable tonal centers, are supported by agents that are characterized by (i) a tendency to strive toward consonance, (ii) stochasticity, and (iii) a limited memory for previously played notes. TonalEmergence thus provides a grounded computational model to simulate and probe the coordination mechanisms underpinning one of the more remarkable feats of human cognition: collective music improvisation.

60 APPLIED LIFE SCIENCES↗

Modeling Farmers’ Adoption Potential to New Bioenergy Crops: An Agent-Based Approach

The use of fossil fuels is the primary source of greenhouse gas emissions but there are alternatives to these especially in the form of biofuels, fuels derived from bioenergy crops. This paper aims to determine farmers’ potential adoption rates of newly introduced bioenergy crops with a specific example of carinata in the state of Georgia. The determination is done using an agent-based modeling technique with two principal assumptions—farmers are profit maximizer and they are influenced by neighboring farmers. Two diffusion parameters (traditional and expansion) are followed along with two willingness (high and low) scenarios to switch at varying production economics to carinata and other prominent traditional field crops (cotton, peanuts, corn) in the study region. We find that a contract prices around $9, $8 and $7 can be a viable option for encouraging farmers to adopt carinata in low, average, and high profit conditions, respectively. Expansion diffusion (that diffuses all over the geographical area), rather than centered to the few places like traditional diffusion at the early stage of adoption in conjunction with higher willingness conditions influences higher adoption rates in the short-term. As such, the model can be used to understand the behavioral economics of carinata in Georgia and beyond, as well as offering a potential tool to study similar bioenergy crops.

Ullah, Kazi↗

Modeling Farmers’ Adoption Potential to New Bioenergy Crops: An Agent-Based Approach

The use of fossil fuels is the primary source of greenhouse gas emissions but there are alternatives to these especially in the form of biofuels, fuels derived from bioenergy crops. This paper aims to determine farmers’ potential adoption rates of newly introduced bioenergy crops with a specific example of carinata in the state of Georgia. The determination is done using an agent-based modeling technique with two principal assumptions—farmers are profit maximizer and they are influenced by neighboring farmers. Two diffusion parameters (traditional and expansion) are followed along with two willingness (high and low) scenarios to switch at varying production economics to carinata and other prominent traditional field crops (cotton, peanuts, corn) in the study region. We find that a contract prices around $9, $8 and $7 can be a viable option for encouraging farmers to adopt carinata in low, average, and high profit conditions, respectively. Expansion diffusion (that diffuses all over the geographical area), rather than centered to the few places like traditional diffusion at the early stage of adoption in conjunction with higher willingness conditions influences higher adoption rates in the short-term. As such, the model can be used to understand the behavioral economics of carinata in Georgia and beyond, as well as offering a potential tool to study similar bioenergy crops.

Ullah, Kazi↗

Agent-based Modeling for the Multi-objective Optimization of Energy Production Pathways: Integrated Techno-Economics and Life Cycle Assessment

This project developed an integrated modeling framework to evaluate how purpose-grown bioenergy feedstocks could support large-scale sustainable aviation fuel production in the United States. Led by Colorado State University with project partners, the work combined geographically resolved analysis, techno-economic assessment, life cycle assessment, multi-objective optimization, and agent-based modeling to examine feedstock performance, deployment potential, land-use implications, and adoption dynamics. The overall goal was to identify practical and sustainable pathways for producing aviation fuel from feedstocks such as energy crops, woody crops, oilseeds, and algae while helping inform policy, investment, and research needs tied to national SAF goals. In essence, the project provides a systems-level assessment of the opportunities and constraints associated with scaling bioenergy-based aviation fuels in the U.S.

09 BIOMASS FUELS↗

Agent-Based Model of Combined Community- and Jail-Based Take-Home Naloxone Distribution

Importance Opioid-related overdose accounts for almost 80 000 deaths annually across the US. People who use drugs leaving jails are at particularly high risk for opioid-related overdose and may benefit from take-home naloxone (THN) distribution. Objective To estimate the population impact of THN distribution at jail release to reverse opioid-related overdose among people with opioid use disorders. Design, Setting, and Participants This study developed the agent-based Justice-Community Circulation Model (JCCM) to model a synthetic population of individuals with and without a history of opioid use. Epidemiological data from 2014 to 2020 for Cook County, Illinois, were used to identify parameters pertinent to the synthetic population. Twenty-seven experimental scenarios were examined to capture diverse strategies of THN distribution and use. Sensitivity analysis was performed to identify critical mediating and moderating variables associated with population impact and a proxy metric for cost-effectiveness (ie, the direct costs of THN kits distributed per death averted). Data were analyzed between February 2022 and March 2024. Intervention Modeled interventions included 3 THN distribution channels: community facilities and practitioners; jail, at release; and social network or peers of persons released from jail. Main Outcomes and Measures The primary outcome was the percentage of opioid-related overdose deaths averted with THN in the modeled population relative to a baseline scenario with no intervention. Results Take-home naloxone distribution at jail release had the highest median (IQR) percentage of averted deaths at 11.70% (6.57%-15.75%). The probability of bystander presence at an opioid overdose showed the greatest proportional contribution (27.15%) to the variance in deaths averted in persons released from jail. The estimated costs of distributed THN kits were less than $\$$15 000 per averted death in all 27 scenarios. Conclusions and Relevance This study found that THN distribution at jail release is an economical and feasible approach to substantially reducing opioid-related overdose mortality. Training and preparation of proficient and willing bystanders are central factors in reaching the full potential of this intervention.

Tatara, Eric [Argonne National Laboratory (ANL), A↗

Calibration verification for stochastic agent-based disease spread models

Accurate disease spread modeling is crucial for identifying the severity of outbreaks and planning effective mitigation efforts. To be reliable when applied to new outbreaks, model calibration techniques must be robust. However, current methods frequently forgo calibration verification (a stand-alone process evaluating the calibration procedure) and instead use overall model validation (a process comparing calibrated model results to data) to check calibration processes, which may conceal errors in calibration. In this work, we develop a stochastic agent-based disease spread model to act as a testing environment as we test two calibration methods using simulation-based calibration, which is a synthetic data calibration verification method. The first calibration method is a Bayesian inference approach using an empirically-constructed likelihood and Markov chain Monte Carlo (MCMC) sampling, while the second method is a likelihood-free approach using approximate Bayesian computation (ABC). Simulation-based calibration suggests that there are challenges with the empirical likelihood calculation used in the first calibration method in this context. These issues are alleviated in the ABC approach. Despite these challenges, we note that the first calibration method performs well in a synthetic data model validation test similar to those common in disease spread modeling literature. We conclude that stand-alone calibration verification using synthetic data may benefit epidemiological researchers in identifying model calibration challenges that may be difficult to identify with other commonly used model validation techniques.

60 APPLIED LIFE SCIENCES↗

Demand Shocks and Supply Chain Resilience: An Agent Based Modelling Approach and Application to the Potato Supply Chain

The food supply chain has experienced major disruptions from both demand and supply sides during the COVID-19 pandemic. While some consequences such as food waste are directly caused by the disruption due to supply chain inefficiency, others are indirectly caused by a change in consumer’s preferences. As a result, evaluating food supply chain resilience is a difficult task. With an attempt to understand impacts of demand on the food supply chain, we developed an agent-based model based on the case of Idaho’s potato supply chain. Results showed that not only the magnitude but also the timing of the demand shock will have different impacts on various stakeholders of the supply chain. Our contribution to the literature is twofold. First, the model helps explain why food waste and shortages may occur with dramatic shifts in consumer demand. Second, this paper provides a new angle on evaluating the various mitigation strategies and policy responses to disruptions beyond COVID-19.

29 ENERGY PLANNING, POLICY, AND ECONOMY↗

Agent-Based Simulation Framework for Multi-Variant Surveillance

Early detection of an emerging VOC (Variant-Of-Concern) is essential for effective preparedness for a disease like COVID-19. The spreading of an emerging VOC not only depends on the disease dynamics of itself but also depends on the state of the circulating variants and the susceptibility of the population. Resources for testing are typically quite limited, and a number of strategies have been considered for deploying them. However, it has been difficult to evaluate the performance of such strategies, especially higher order effects, and inequities, while incorporating constraints on these resources. Here, we develop an agent-based surveillance framework, Networkdetect, to understand the early warning system of an emerging VOC. Our framework allows us to incorporate various population heterogeneities and resource constraints.

Moon, Sifat [ORNL] (ORCID:0000000344968809)↗

Statistical Learning for Nonlinear Model Reduction from Local Simulations of Stochastic and Particle- and Agent-Based Systems

Stochastic physical systems across the sciences that have very high-dimensional state spaces, with a large number of fast degrees of freedom that force direct simulators to proceed by integration steps that are orders of magnitude smaller than events of interests (e.g., particle collisions). Examples range from molecular motion to dynamics of large populations of cells. A grand challenge in the simulation and understanding of such systems is the systematic construction of accurate, interpretable, reduced models, enabling faster simulations, revealing fundamental properties of the dynamics, and predicting phenomena of interest that the original simulator could not reached with sufficient accuracy or within a given computational budget. In this projected we developed novel statistical estimation/machine learning techniques for analyzing and building empirical reduced models for important families of high-dimensional stochastic systems, in particular: - we developed techniques for estimating interaction kernels in interacting particle- and agent-based systems, which are ubiquitous in Physics, Biology and many other sciences, given observed trajectories of the system; - we developed techniques for nonlinear model reduction for high-dimensional stochastic systems that have a small number of unknown, nonlinear slow variables, and a large number of fast modes, that are possibly of large magnitude, given observed short trajectories of the system in the form of bursts of trajectories from different initial conditions; - we developed novel techniques for estimating linear dynamical systems on graphs when both the dynamics and the underlying graph are unknown, and we have a sparse set of space-time observations; - we considered the problem of estimating an unknown nonlinear observation function of a standard process (e.g. Brownian motion), so that we can recognized if an observed dynamics is "just" a nonlinear version of a known dynamics; we also developed benchmarks for learning algorithms aimed at learning and classifying diffusion processes.

97 MATHEMATICS AND COMPUTING↗

An agent-based blackboard system for multi-objective optimization

In the field of multi-objective optimization, there are a multitude of algorithms from which to choose. Each algorithm has strengths and weaknesses associated with the mechanics for finding the Pareto front. Recently, researchers have begun to examine how multi-agent environments can be used to help solve multi-objective optimization problems. In this work, we propose a multi-objective optimization algorithm based on a multi-agent blackboard system (MABS). The MABS framework allows for multiple agents to read and write pertinent optimization problem data to a central blackboard agent. Agents can stochastically search the design space, use previously discovered solutions to explore local optima, or update and prune the Pareto front. A centralized blackboard framework allows the optimization problem to be solved in a cohesive manner and permits stopping, restarting, or updating the optimization problem. The MABS framework is tested against three alternative optimization algorithms across a suite of engineering design problems and typically outperforms the other algorithms in discovering the Pareto front. A parallelizability study is performed where we find that the MABS is able to evaluate a set number of designs, which require an evaluation time ranging from 0 to 300 seconds, quicker than a traditional optimization algorithm: this fact becomes more apparent the longer it takes to evaluate a design. To provide context for the benefits provided by MABS, a real-world nuclear engineering design problem is examined. MABS is used to examine the placement of experiments in a nuclear reactor, where we are able to evaluate hundreds of configurations for experimental placement while maintaining a strict set of safety constraints.

22 GENERAL STUDIES OF NUCLEAR REACTORS↗

Stochastic agent-based model for predicting turbine-scale raptor movements during updraft-subsidized directional flights

Rapid expansion of wind energy development across the world has highlighted the need to better understand turbine-caused avian mortality. The risk to golden eagles (Aquila chrysaetos) is of particular concern due to their small population size and conservation status. Golden eagles subsidize their flight in part by soaring in orographic updrafts, which can place them in conflict with wind turbines utilizing the same low-altitude wind resource. Understanding the behavior of soaring raptors in varying atmospheric conditions can therefore be relevant to predicting and mitigating their risk of collision. We present a predictive movement model that simulates individual paths of golden eagles during directional flight (such as migration) that is subsidized by orographic updraft. We modeled eagles in a 50 km by 50 km study area in Wyoming containing three wind power plants with documented golden eagle collisions with turbines. The movement model is applicable to any region where ground elevation is known at turbine scale (50 m) and wind conditions are known at facility scale (3 km). For a given set of atmospheric conditions, the model simulates movements of thousands of orographic soaring eagles to produce a density map quantifying the relative probability of eagle presence. We validated the simulated tracks with GPS telemetry data showing four directional tracks made by golden eagles transiting through the area in 2019 and 2020. For each eagle track, validation was performed using the ratio of the model-simulated eagle presence likelihood with uniform eagle presence and the presence computed using directed random-walk movements. We found that the predictive performance of the model was significantly better (likelihood ratio 1) for low-altitude movements than high-altitude movements that can involve thermal-soaring. We employed the model to produce seasonal presence maps for migrating golden eagles. We found significant turbine-level variations in eagle presence between northerly and southerly migration routes through the study area. Overall, the proposed model offers a generalizable, probabilistic, and predictive tool to assist wind energy developers, ecologists, wildlife managers, and industry consultants in estimating the potential for conflict between soaring birds and wind turbines, thereby reducing the need for site-specific data on golden eagle movements.

17 WIND ENERGY↗

Agent-Based Distributed Energy Resources for Supporting Intelligence at the Grid Edge

This article proposes a novel multi-agent framework that can link various forms of resources and power electronic systems into distributed energy resources (DER). The proposed multiagent architecture can also integrate DERs to a central controller for optimization and control to support the grid. To demonstrate the flexibility of this novel framework, the developed agent system is applied to a set of end-use systems. Furthermore, the agent framework is validated in hardware using controller-hardware-in-the-loop simulation platform.

24 POWER TRANSMISSION AND DISTRIBUTION↗

Agent-Based Simulation of Price-Demand Dynamics in Multi-Service Charging Station

As the adoption of electric vehicles and hydrogen fuel-cell vehicles grows, understanding how dynamic pricing strategies influence charging and refueling behaviors becomes crucial for optimizing local energy markets. This paper proposes a simulation-based analysis of a hydrogen-electricity integrated charging station that serves both types of vehicles. A multi-agent simulation framework is developed to model the interactions between vehicles and the station, incorporating price- and delay-sensitive behaviors in decision-making. The station can dynamically adjust energy prices, while vehicles optimize their charging or refueling choices based on their utility values. A series of sensitivity analyses are conducted to evaluate how electricity pricing, infrastructure capacity, and waiting behavior impact station performance. Results highlight that moderate electricity prices maximize user participation without sacrificing profit, infrastructure should be right-sized to demand to avoid over- or underutilization, and delay-toleration also affects service outcomes, which may reach the maximum service coverage at the threshold of 45 minutes.

Wang, Xudong [University of Tennessee, Knoxville (↗

Foveal vision reduces neural resources in agent-based game learning

Efficient processing of information is crucial for the optimization of neural resources in both biological and artificial visual systems. In this paper, we study the efficiency that may be obtained via the use of a fovea. Using biologically-motivated agents, we study visual information processing, learning, and decision making in a controlled artificial environment, namely the Atari Pong video game. We compare the resources necessary to play Pong between agents with and without a fovea. Our study shows that a fovea can significantly reduce the neural resources, in the form of number of neurons, number of synapses, and number of computations, while at the same time maintaining performance at playing Pong. To our knowledge, this is the first study in which an agent must simultaneously optimize its visual system, along with its decision making and action generation capabilities. That is, the visual system is integral to a complete agent.

60 APPLIED LIFE SCIENCES↗

Virtual Agents-Based Attack-Resilient Distributed Control for Islanded AC Microgrid

Due to its dependence on a communication network, distributed secondary control of microgrids is susceptible to denial-of-service (DoS) attacks in channel shutdown mode, which may negatively impact the network connectivity and thus deteriorate the coordination and power sharing among distributed generators (DGs). Honeypot is a common method for cyber deception by introducing fake targets. However, in the context of microgrid, the misleading information spread by honeypots will also impact the system performance. This paper proposes an attack-resilient distributed control for AC microgrids utilizing virtual agents (VAs) to counteract both DoS edge and node attacks. The VAs are designed to not impact the system’s steady state during normal operation but to share information among neighboring real agents and serve as dummy targets for DoS attacks. The control with VAs is implemented by a primal-dual gradient based distributed algorithm to efficiently obtain a practical solution for voltage/frequency regulation and power sharing. The simulation results on a 4-DG test system and a modified IEEE 34-bus system show that 1) VAs do not impact the normal functionality of the test system, and 2) deploying VAs can enhance the resilience of the microgrid control against DoS edge and node attacks.

24 POWER TRANSMISSION AND DISTRIBUTION↗

Surrogate modeling of Cellular-Potts agent-based models as a segmentation task using the U-Net neural network architecture

The Cellular-Potts model is a powerful and ubiquitous framework for developing computational models for simulating complex multicellular biological systems. Cellular-Potts models (CPMs) are often computationally expensive due to the explicit modeling of interactions among large numbers of individual model agents and diffusive fields described by partial differential equations (PDEs). In this work, we develop a convolutional neural network (CNN) surrogate model using a U-Net architecture that accounts for periodic boundary conditions. We use this model to accelerate the evaluation of a mechanistic CPM previously used to investigate in vitro vasculogenesis. The surrogate model was trained to predict 100 computational steps ahead (Monte-Carlo steps, MCS), accelerating simulation evaluations by a factor of 562 times compared to single-core CPM code execution on CPU. Over short timescales of up to 3 recursive evaluations, or 300 MCS, our model captures the emergent behaviors demonstrated by the original Cellular-Potts model such as vessel sprouting, extension and anastomosis, and contraction of vascular lacunae. This approach demonstrates the potential for deep learning to serve as a step toward efficient surrogate models for CPM simulations, enabling faster evaluation of computationally expensive CPM simulations of biological processes.

97 MATHEMATICS AND COMPUTING↗

A Real-time Agent Based Optimization and Control Approach for Residential Building Heating Ventilation and Air Conditioning Systems

The prevalence of the loT (Internet of Things) is fostering the development of new control options and decision making that was not previously available. This is creating a wealth of opportunities for real-time control approaches and systems that can optimize for a common goal. This paper presents a smart residential neighborhood with optimization at the residential level utilizing a system of agents. The optimization utilizes information and modeling to optimize variable speed HVAC real-time operation in actual residential buildings. Data is presented showing the performance of the optimization and conclusions are drawn on next steps for development.

Hall, Joni↗