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All sourcesNASA NTRSDOE OSTI
NASA NTRS2018

Quantifying the Early Snowmelt Event of 2015 in the Cascade Mountains, USA by Developing and Validating MODIS-Based Snowmelt Timing Maps

Spring snowmelt serves as the major hydrological contribution to many watersheds of the US West. Since the 1970s the conterminous western USA has seen an earlier arrival of spring snowmelt. The extremely low snowpack and early melt of 2015 in the Cascade Mountains may be a harbinger of winters to come, underscoring the interest in advancements in spring snowmelt monitoring. Target-of-opportunity and point measurements of snowmelt using meteorological stations or stream gauges are common sources of these data, however, there have been few attempts to identify snowmelt timing using remote sensing. In this study, we describe the creation of snowmelt timing maps (STMs) which identify the day of year that each pixel of a remotely sensed image transitions from "snow-covered" to "no snow" during the spring melt season, controlling for cloud coverage and ephemeral spring snow storms. Derived from the 500 meter MODerate-resolution Imaging Spectroradiometer (MODIS) standard snow map, MOD10A2, this new dataset provides annual maps of snowmelt timing, with corresponding maps of cloud interference and interannual variability in snow coverage from 2001-2015. We first show that the STMs agree strongly with in-situ snow telemetry (SNOTEL) meteorological station measurements in terms of snowmelt timing. We then use the STMs to investigate the early snowmelt event of 2015 in the Cascade Mountains, USA, highlighting the protected areas of Mt. Rainier, Crater Lake, and Lassen Volcanic National Parks. In 2015 the Cascade Mountains experienced snowmelt 41 days earlier than the 2001-2015 average, with 25 percent of its land area melting more than 65 days earlier than average. The upper elevations of the Cascade Mountains experienced the greatest snowmelt anomaly. Our results are relevant to land managers and biologists as they plan adaptation strategies for mitigating the effects of climate change throughout temperate mountains.

snowmelt timing↗
NASA NTRS2018

Diverging Importance of Drought Stress for Maize and Winter Wheat in Europe

Understanding the drivers of yield levels under climate change is required to support adaptation planning and respond to changing production risks. This study uses an ensemble of crop models applied on a spatial grid to quantify the contributions of various climatic drivers to past yield variability in grain maize and winter wheat of European cropping systems (1984-2009) and drivers of climate change impacts to 2050. Results reveal that for the current genotypes and mix of irrigated and rainfed production, climate change would lead to yield losses for grain maize and gains for winter wheat. Across Europe, on average heat stress does not increase for either crop in rainfed systems, while drought stress intensifies for maize only. In low-yielding years, drought stress persists as the main driver of losses for both crops, with elevated CO2 offering no yield benefit in these years.

Europe↗
NASA NTRS2018

Climate Shifts Within Major Agricultural Seasons for +1.5 and +2.0 °C Worlds: HAPPI Projections and AgMIP Modeling Scenarios

This study compares climate changes in major agricultural regions and current agricultural seasons associated with global warming of +1.5 or +2.0 °C above pre-industrial conditions. It describes the generation of climate scenarios for agricultural modeling applications conducted as part of the Agricultural Model Intercomparison and Improvement Project (AgMIP) Coordinated Global and Regional Assessments. Climate scenarios from the Half a degree Additional warming, Projections, Prognosis and Impacts project (HAPPI) are largely consistent with transient scenarios extracted from RCP4.5 simulations of the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project phase 5 (CMIP5). Focusing on food and agricultural systems and top-producing breadbaskets in particular, we distinguish maize, rice, wheat, and soy season changes from global annual mean climate changes. Many agricultural regions warm at a rate that is faster than the global mean surface temperature (including oceans) but slower than the mean land surface temperature, leading to regional warming that exceeds 0.5 °C between the +1.5 and +2.0 °C Worlds. Agricultural growing seasons warm at a pace slightly behind the annual temperature trends in most regions, while precipitation increases slightly ahead of the annual rate. Rice cultivation regions show reduced warming as they are concentrated where monsoon rainfall is projected to intensify, although projections are influenced by Asian aerosol loading in climate mitigation scenarios. Compared to CMIP5, HAPPI slightly underestimates the CO2 concentration that corresponds to the +1.5 °C World but overestimates the CO2 concentration for the +2.0 °C World, which means that HAPPI scenarios may also lead to an overestimate in the beneficial effects of CO2 on crops in the +2.0 °C World. HAPPI enables detailed analysis of the shifting distribution of extreme growing season temperatures and precipitation, highlighting widespread increases in extreme heat seasons and heightened skewness toward hot seasons in the tropics. Shifts in the probability of extreme drought seasons generally tracked median precipitation changes; however, some regions skewed toward drought conditions even where median precipitation changes were small. Together, these findings highlight unique seasonal and agricultural region changes in the +1.5 °C and +2.0 °C worlds for adaptation planning in these climate stabilization targets.

Alexander C. Ruane↗
NASA NTRS2020

Climate and Anthropogenic Controls on Blue Carbon Sequestration in Hudson River Tidal Marsh, Piermont, New York

Tidal marshes globally are experiencing erosion with sea level rise. In order to adaptively plan for essential marsh preservation, we recognize the importance of the investigation of marsh archives for the perspective they provide toward resilience. Our objective in this study is to examine the relationship of tidal marsh carbon sequestration with both climate change and human impact throughout past centuries and millennia. A Hudson River marsh sediment core spanning the last 2000 years is analyzed for bulk loss on ignition (LOI), bulk density, sedimentation rate, carbon (C) and mineral flux, and x-ray fluorescence (XRF) analysis including lead, copper, titanium and potassium. We compare this record to previously established pollen and spore stratigraphy from the same site, along with an extensive macrofossil based AMS 14C chronology based upon both cores. Carbon accumulation generally follows sediment accumulation rates, which were higher than 200 g C m−2 yr−1 prior to 1500 years ago. Declines in carbon storage rate during the Medieval Warm Period (MWP) are linked to drought, fire, and charcoal, while lesser declines during the Little Ice Age (LIA) are linked to cooling and a shorter growing season. Subsequent human impact with marsh haying practices also led to carbon accumulation rate decline to 100 g C m−2 yr−1. Increases in C sequestration rates in recent decades may be attributable to nitrogen pollution of the estuary, invasive plants, and/or increased flooding, but the lack of mineral sediment threatens their stability. Ecosystem function is declining with the loss of foundational species, and the crisis is deepening for preservation of this habitat. We strongly recommend strategies for minimizing marsh loss.

Climate controls↗
NASA NTRS2021

DroughtCast: A Machine Learning Forecast of the United States Drought Monitor

Drought is one of the most ecologically and economically devastating natural phenomena affecting the United States, causing the U.S. economy billions of dollars in damage, and driving widespread degradation of ecosystem health. Many drought indices are implemented to monitor the current extent and status of drought so stakeholders such as farmers and local governments can appropriately respond. Methods toforecast drought conditions weeks to months in advance are less common but would provide a more effective early warning system to enhance drought response, mitigation, and adaptation planning. To resolve this issue, we introduce DroughtCast, a machine learning framework for forecasting the United States Drought Monitor (USDM). DroughtCast operates on the knowledge that recent anomalies in hydrology and meteorology drive future changes in drought conditions. We use simulated meteorology and satellite observed soil moisture as inputs into a recurrent neural network to accurately forecast the USDM between 1 and 12 weeks into the future. Our analysis shows that precipitation, soil moisture, and temperature are the most important input variables when forecasting future drought conditions. Additionally, a case study of the 2017 Northern Plains Flash Drought shows that DroughtCast was able to forecast a very extreme drought event up to 12 weeks before its onset. Given the favorable forecasting skill of the model, DroughtCast may provide a promising tool for land managers and local governments in preparing for and mitigating the effects of drought.

Machine Learning↗
NASA NTRS2021

Projected land ice contributions to twenty-first-century sea level rise

The land ice contribution to global mean sea level rise has not yet been predicted1 using ice sheet and glacier models for the latest set of socio-economic scenarios, nor using coordinated exploration of uncertainties arising from the various computer models involved. Two recent international projects generated a large suite of projections using multiple models2,3,4,5,6,7,8, but primarily used previous-generation scenarios9 and climate models10, and could not fully explore known uncertainties. Here we estimate probability distributions for these projections under the new scenarios11,12 using statistical emulation of the ice sheet and glacier models. We find that limiting global warming to 1.5 degrees Celsius would halve the land ice contribution to twenty-first-century sea level rise, relative to current emissions pledges. The median decreases from 25 to 13 centimetres sea level equivalent (SLE) by 2100, with glaciers responsible for half the sea level contribution. The projected Antarctic contribution does not show a clear response to the emissions scenario, owing to uncertainties in the competing processes of increasing ice loss and snowfall accumulation in a warming climate. However, under risk-averse (pessimistic) assumptions, Antarctic ice loss could be five times higher, increasing the median land ice contribution to 42 centimetres SLE under current policies and pledges, with the 95th percentile projection exceeding half a metre even under 1.5 degrees Celsius warming. This would severely limit the possibility of mitigating future coastal flooding. Given this large range (between 13 centimetres SLE using the main projections under 1.5 degrees Celsius warming and 42 centimetres SLE using risk-averse projections under current pledges), adaptation planning for twenty-first-century sea level rise must account for a factor-of-three uncertainty in the land ice contribution until climate policies and the Antarctic response are further constrained.

Tamsin L. Edwards↗
NASA NTRSDate not supplied

Utilizing Earth Observations to Model Probable Coastal Wetland Extent, Sea-Level Rise Inundation Risk, and Assess Impacts on Historic Hawaiian Lands

Climate induced sea-level rise poses a risk to coastal areas on the Island of Hawai’i, and many of the island’s historic cultural lands are in danger of becoming overtaken by wetlands or inundation. In partnership with the County of Hawai’i, State of Hawai’i Department of Land and Natural Resources, and Arizona State University, NASA DEVELOP mapped wetland extent and short-term sea-level rise inundation risk. We utilized Earth observations over a 10-year span (2013 – 2022) that included the NASA MEaSUREs Gridded Sea Surface Height Anomalies and MEaSUREs Group for High Resolution Sea Surface Temperature datasets, United States Geological Survey (USGS) Hawaii Digital Elevation Models (DEM), and in situ tidal gauge data. Flood risk index values were acquired for 5 known Hawai’i flood events between 2019 – 2021 from the Global Flood Mapper tool on Google Earth Engine. We used a random forest model to predict short-term sea-level rise inundation risk along the entire coast of Hawai’i. Current wetland extents and probabilistic locations of new wetlands were modeled with the most recently available data from PlanetScope Surface Reflectance optical imagery (2022), USGS 3D Elevation Program (3DEP) 10m DEM (2020), temperature and precipitation data from the Hawai’i Climate Atlas, and soils data from the Hawai’i Soil Atlas (2014) using the Wetland Intrinsic Potential tool. Results indicated locations that had the highest probability of wetland creation. The end products aimed to help the partners prioritize efforts to meeting regulation requirements for wetlands protection, evaluate the inundation risk to historical features, and support decision-making for their Shoreline Setback and Climate Adaption plans.

Lisa Tanh↗
NASA NTRS2022

Impacts of Climate Change on Global Food Trade Networks

Countries' reliance on global food trade networks implies that regionally different climate change impacts on crop yields will be transmitted across borders. This redistribution constitutes a significant challenge for climate adaptation planning and may affect how countries engage in cooperative action. This paper investigates the long-term (2070–2099) potential impacts of climate change on global food trade networks of three key crops: wheat, rice and maize. We propose a simple network model to project how climate change impacts on crop yields may be translated into changes in trade. Combining trade and climate impact data, our analysis proceeds in three steps. First, we use network community detection to analyse how the concentration of global production in present-day trade communities may become disrupted with climate change impacts. Second, we study how countries may change their network position following climate change impacts. Third, we study the total climate-induced change in production plus import within trade communities. Results indicate that the stability of food trade network structures compared to today differs between crops, and that countries' maize trade is least stable under climate change impacts. Results also project that threats to global food security may depend on production change in a few major global producers, and whether trade communities can balance production and import loss in some vulnerable countries. Overall, our model contributes a baseline analysis of cross-border climate impacts on food trade networks.

climate change↗
NASA NTRS2026

South Asian Monsoon Response to Regional Aerosol Emission Reductions: Insights From RAMIP

Anthropogenic aerosol and associated precursor gas emissions are already declining in many regions and are likely to decline significantly by 2050, with major implications for regional climate. Unlike greenhouse gases, aerosol impacts are spatially heterogeneous and can influence climate both near emission sources and through remote teleconnections. This is particularly important for the South Asian monsoon system, where both local and remote aerosol changes can significantly affect precipitation patterns. Using simulations from the Regional Aerosol Model Intercomparison Project, we examine how local and remote aerosol emission reductions influence South Asian climate across both pre-monsoon and monsoon seasons, including weakening of the elevated heat pump (EHP) mechanism during pre-monsoon months. Our analysis employs 10-member ensembles from 10 CMIP6-era models to compare three experiments with global, South Asian, and East Asian aerosol reductions relative to a high-emission baseline (SSP3-7.0). This experimental design allows us to isolate and quantify the distinct impacts of regional emission changes. Results reveal that global aerosol reductions produce a larger all-India precipitation increase (+0.28 mm day −1 ) than South Asian reductions alone (+0.19 mm day −1 ), with the strongest regional responses over the northern Bay of Bengal, the Western Ghats and Indo-Gangetic Plains. East Asian reductions show uncertain but modest precipitation reductions of 0.2-0.6 mm day −1 over parts of west-central and eastern Indian regions. Pre-monsoon carbonaceous aerosol reductions systematically weaken the EHP, cooling the mid-troposphere over the Himalayan foothills by up to 0.4 K and producing localised anomalous descent that opposes the climatological pre-monsoon ascent. Substantial inter-model diversity exists in the spatial patterns and magnitudes of these responses, highlighting key uncertainties in aerosol–monsoon interactions. The South Asian precipitation response is driven by enhanced land–sea thermal contrast, while the pre-monsoon EHP weakening is attributable exclusively to local South Asian carbonaceous aerosol forcing rather than remote teleconnections. These findings have direct implications for air quality and climate adaptation planning across South Asia as regional aerosol emissions diverge under different development pathways.

cmip6↗
NASA NTRS2013

Translating MAPGEN to ASPEN for MER

This software translates MAPGEN (Europa and APGEN) domains to ASPEN, and the resulting domain can be used to perform planning for the Mars Exploration Rover (MER). In other words, this is a conversion of two distinct planning languages (both declarative and procedural) to a third (declarative) planning language in order to solve the problem of faithful translation from mixed-domain representations into the ASPEN Modeling Language. The MAPGEN planning system is an example of a hybrid procedural/declarative system where the advantages of each are leveraged to produce an effective planner/scheduler for MER tactical planning. The adaptation of the planning system (ASPEN) was investigated, and, with some translation, much of the procedural knowledge encoding is amenable to declarative knowledge encoding. The approach was to compose translators from the core languages used for adapting MAGPEN, which consists of Europa and APGEN. Europa is a constraint- based planner/scheduler where domains are encoded using a declarative model. APGEN is also constraint-based, in that it tracks constraints on resources and states and other variables. Domains are encoded in both constraints and code snippets that execute according to a forward sweep through the plan. Europa and APGEN communicate to each other using proxy activities in APGEN that represent constraints and/or tokens in Europa. The composition of a translator from Europa to ASPEN was fairly straightforward, as ASPEN is also a declarative planning system, and the specific uses of Europa for the MER domain matched ASPEN s native encoding fairly closely. On the other hand, translating from APGEN to ASPEN was considerably more involved. On the surface, the types of activities and resources one encodes in APGEN appear to match oneto- one to the activities, state variables, and resources in ASPEN. But, when looking into the definitions of how resources are profiled and activities are expanded, one sees code snippets that access various information available during planning for the moment in time being planned to decide at the time what the appropriate profile or expansion is. APGEN is actually a forward (in time) sweeping discrete event simulator, where the model is composed of code snippets that are artfully interleaved by the engine to produce a plan/schedule. To solve this problem, representative code is simulated as a declarative series of task expansions. Predominantly, three types of procedural models were translated: loops, if statements, and code blocks. Loops and if statements were handled using controlled task expansion, and code blocks were handled using constraint networks that maintained the generation of results based on what the order of execution would be for a procedural representation. One advantage with respect to performance for MAPGEN is the use of APGEN s GUI. This GUI is written in C++ and Motif, and performs very well for large plans.

Rabideau, Gregg R.↗
NASA NTRS2017

Online Multi-Modal Learning and Adaptive Information Trajectory Planning for Autonomous Exploration

In robotic information gathering missions, scientists are typically interested in understanding variables which require proxy measurements from specialized sensor suites to estimate. However, energy and time constraints limit how often these sensors can be used in a mission. Robots are also equipped with cheaper to use navigation sensors such as cameras. In this paper, we explore a challenging planning problem in which a robot is required to learn about a scientific variable of interest in an initially unknown environment by planning informative paths and deciding when and where to use its sensors. To tackle this we present two innovations: a Bayesian generative model framework to automatically learn correlations between expensive science sensors and cheaper to use navigation sensors online, and a sampling based approach to plan for multiple sensors while handling long horizons and budget constraints. Our approach does not grow in complexity with data and is anytime making it highly applicable to field robotics. We tested our approach extensively in simulation and validated it with real data collected during the 2014 Mojave Volatiles Prospector Mission. Our planning algorithm performs statistically significantly better than myopic approaches and at least as well as a coverage-based algorithm in an initially unknown environment while having added advantages of being able to exploit prior knowledge and handle other intricacies of the real world without further algorithmic modifications.

learning↗
NASA NTRS2017

Autonomous Guidance Navigation and Control for Agile Quadrotors Using Polynomial Trajectory Planning and L1 Adaptive Control

We address the challenge to allow efficient autonomous flight in real world environments, both indoor and outdoor. We use a straight-line SE-SCP (Spherical Expansion and Sequential Convex Programming) [algorithm] to find an initial route through the environment and minimum snap trajectory generation using piecewise polynomials. Then, we implement an adaptive robust control able to address some robustness issues for quadrotors in outdoor flight, such as mass variation and wind disturbances. Coupling these techniques we allow high-speed and aggressive autonomous flight through obstacle-dense indoor environments, as well as address outdoor disturbances.

Landolfi, Mattia↗
NASA NTRS2021

Hawai‘i Island Disasters: Using NASA Earth Observations to Assess Coastal Flood Risk with Measures of Land Cover Change, Flood Extent, and Vulnerability for Adaptation and Mitigation Planning on Hawai‘i Island

As the County of Hawai‘i faces an increased risk of extreme flooding events, sea-level rise, and other hazards associated with climate change, the need for building geospatial capacity to make better-informed decisions is critical. The County of Hawai‘i and Arizona State University partnered with NASA DEVELOP to complete a macro-scale risk analysis for the island of Hawai‘i analyzing flooding, land cover, vulnerability, and exposure factors using Earth observations and socio-economic data. The team assessed the variation in urban coastal vulnerability around the entire island of Hawai‘i, using satellite imagery of coastal land cover typology from satellite products such as Landsat 8 Operational Land Imager (OLI), Landsat 7 Enhanced Thematic Mapper Plus (ETM+), and Sentinel-1 Synthetic Aperture Radar (SAR). The team made a sharable geodatabase containing datasets modeling vulnerability to coastal flooding as well as the Hawai‘i Flood Risk Toolbox (HiFloRT) which contains multiple tools for the County to map land cover, extreme rainfall and flood extent across the Island. The end products will allow the County of Hawai‘i to establish a protocol and standard framework for the utilization of Earth observations in future planning.

Garren Kalter↗
NASA NTRS2008

Simulation Based Evaluation of Integrated Adaptive Control and Flight Planning Technologies

The objective of this work is to leverage NASA resources to enable effective evaluation of resilient aircraft technologies through simulation. This includes examining strengths and weaknesses of adaptive controllers, emergency flight planning algorithms, and flight envelope determination algorithms both individually and as an integrated package.

Campbell, Stefan Forrest↗
NASA NTRS2005

Path Planning Algorithms for the Adaptive Sensor Fleet

The Adaptive Sensor Fleet (ASF) is a general purpose fleet management and planning system being developed by NASA in coordination with NOAA. The current mission of ASF is to provide the capability for autonomous cooperative survey and sampling of dynamic oceanographic phenomena such as current systems and algae blooms. Each ASF vessel is a software model that represents a real world platform that carries a variety of sensors. The OASIS platform will provide the first physical vessel, outfitted with the systems and payloads necessary to execute the oceanographic observations described in this paper. The ASF architecture is being designed for extensibility to accommodate heterogenous fleet elements, and is not limited to using the OASIS platform to acquire data. This paper describes the path planning algorithms developed for the acquisition phase of a typical ASF task. Given a polygonal target region to be surveyed, the region is subdivided according to the number of vessels in the fleet. The subdivision algorithm seeks a solution in which all subregions have equal area and minimum mean radius. Once the subregions are defined, a dynamic programming method is used to find a minimum-time path for each vessel from its initial position to its assigned region. This path plan includes the effects of water currents as well as avoidance of known obstacles. A fleet-level planning algorithm then shuffles the individual vessel assignments to find the overall solution which puts all vessels in their assigned regions in the minimum time. This shuffle algorithm may be described as a process of elimination on the sorted list of permutations of a cost matrix. All these path planning algorithms are facilitated by discretizing the region of interest onto a hexagonal tiling.

Stoneking, Eric↗
DOE OSTI2024

From Resilient and Ready to Used and Useful: Managing Temporal and Locational Uncertainty in Electrification, DER Adoption, and Climate Adaptation

Grid planning decisions involve weighing risks against benefits. The best decisions will facilitate development of electrical infrastructure that minimizes risk and maximizes benefits. With the rapidly evolving energy landscape, today's planner must discern new loads and demand cycles; embrace the operational complexity of climate risk; revise settled standards; and anticipate and manage the system impacts of distributed energy resource (DER) adoption. Only by managing the combined uncertainty of these dynamic processes can a planner hope to make effective decisions. Our analysis focuses on the management of temporal and locational uncertainty, and particularly on the risks presented to customers by the mismanagement of the factors that are the sources of these uncertainties.

climate↗
NASA NTRSDate not supplied

A High-Performance Computing GNSS-aware Path Planning Algorithm for Safe Urban Flight Operations

The emergence and development of advanced technologies and vehicle types have created a growing demand for new forms of flight operations. These new and increasingly complex operational paradigms, such as Advanced and Urban Air Mobility (AAM/UAM), present regulatory authorities and the aviation community with several design-and-implementation challenges – particularly for highly autonomous vehicles. An overarching and daunting task is to develop protocols that can integrate these operations without compromising safety or disrupting traditional airspace operations. A shift toward a more predictive, autonomous, risk mitigation capability becomes critical to meet this challenge. This paper proposes and evaluates a computationally-efficient path planning approach to perform pre-flight planning and autonomous in-flight re-routing to minimize exposures to selected hazards. In our evaluation, hazards associated with degraded and missing critical GPS navigation data are considered. In this paper, we first present a high-performance computing path planning approach based on an adapted Bellman-Ford algorithm, developed in the CUDA programming language. Using the adapted path planning algorithm, we test this algorithm when encountering issues with GPS quality, and deliver an implementation that can produce flight paths that minimize exposure to risks, while maintaining a low computational burden. In our evaluation, the computation of periodic and aperiodic path updates are evaluated, prioritizing specific events as triggers for updates, based on changes to satellite availability. These critical events can lead to significant exposure to navigational hazards if not dealt with correctly.

GNSS↗