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Impact of Load Balancing on Unstructured Adaptive Grid Computations for Distributed-Memory Multiprocessors

The computational requirements for an adaptive solution of unsteady problems change as the simulation progresses. This causes workload imbalance among processors on a parallel machine which, in turn, requires significant data movement at runtime. We present a new dynamic load-balancing framework, called JOVE, that balances the workload across all processors with a global view. Whenever the computational mesh is adapted, JOVE is activated to eliminate the load imbalance. JOVE has been implemented on an IBM SP2 distributed-memory machine in MPI for portability. Experimental results for two model meshes demonstrate that mesh adaption with load balancing gives more than a sixfold improvement over one without load balancing. We also show that JOVE gives a 24-fold speedup on 64 processors compared to sequential execution.

Sohn, Andrew

BOREAS TE-20 Soils Data Over the NSA-MSA and Tower Sites in Raster Format

The BOREAS TE-20 team collected several data sets for use in developing and testing models of forest ecosystem dynamics. This data set was gridded from vector layers of soil maps that were received from Dr. Hugo Veldhuis, who did the original mapping in the field during 1994. The vector layers were gridded into raster files that cover the NSA-MSA and tower sites. The data are stored in binary, image format files. The data files are available on a CD-ROM (see document number 20010000884), or from the Oak Ridge National Laboratory (ORNL) Distributed Active Center (DAAC).

Hall, Forrest G.

BOREAS RSS-10 TOMS Circumpolar One-Degree PAR Images

The Boreal Ecosystem-Atmosphere Study (BOREAS) Remote Sensing Science (RSS)-10 team investigated the magnitude of daily, seasonal, and yearly variations of Photosynthetically Active Radiation (PAR) from ground and satellite observations. This data set contains satellite estimates of surface-incident PAR (400-700 nm, MJ/sq m) at one-degree spatial resolution. The spatial coverage is circumpolar from latitudes of 41 to 66 degrees north. The temporal coverage is from May through September for years 1979 through 1989. Eleven-year statistics are also provided: (1) mean, (2) standard deviation, and (3) coefficient of variation for 1979-89. The PAR estimates were derived from the global gridded ultraviolet reflectivity data product (average of 360, 380 nm) from the Nimbus-7 Total Ozone Mapping Spectrometer (TOMS). Image mask data are provided for identifying the boreal forest zone, and ocean/land and snow/ice-covered areas. The data are available as binary image format data files. The PAR data are available from the Earth Observing System Data and Information System (EOSDIS) Oak Ridge National Laboratory (ORNL) Distributed Active Archive Center (DAAC). The data files are available on a CD-ROM (see document number 20010000884).

Dye, Dennis G.

Job Scheduler-Driven Power Gateway for High Performance Computing

Power gateways in the form of a microgrid can incorporate multiple distributed energy resources (DER) in either grid forming or grid following mode and support high performance computing (HPC) power profiles including the large load-follow requirements observed in multi-user HPC systems. The microgrid’s flexibility to operate in either grid forming or grid following mode and to actively switch between these modes enables baseline power from multiple non-baseline DER while maintaining high power quality metrics for the HPC system. But this enormous flexibility in demand response and time of use shifting is generally programmed independently of any integration with an HPC job scheduler which can better inform the load shaping by the microgrid. While there are many existing approaches where the HPC job scheduler takes in information from the grid to make queue scheduling decisions, this work takes the opposite view and explores a scheduler where the jobs in the queue can directly impact the settings of the grid. Several HPC scheduler strategies are tested where the jobs in the queue directly impact the settings of a microgrid designed for HPC operation which is driving a datacenter with three classes of HPC architectures. The scheduler operation is shown using a microgrid with 64 kW of solar capacity and 320 kWh of battery over a period of 21 days operating with significant low-follow swings, a throttled grid, cloudy conditions, switching between grid following and grid forming modes, and a wide range of battery states-of-charge all while maintaining high quality power metrics. The scheduler provides a mechanism for the job queue to directly impact a power gateway like a microgrid and to improve HPC power outcomes such as maximizing renewable energy usage

microgrid

ICE Calculator 2: Final Report for Phase 1 and 2 of the National Initiative to Update the Interruption Cost Estimate (ICE) Calculator

ICE 2.0 Phase 2 Final Report In 2021, Berkeley Lab and Resource Innovations, Inc. launched the “ICE Calculator 2 Initiative” – a national study to refresh the underlying data and enhance the functionality of the ICE Calculator. The Initiative involves Berkeley Lab contracting with sponsoring utilities to administer identical, updated and comprehensive interruption cost surveys to statistically representative samples of each utility’s customers. Berkeley Lab and Resource Innovations then pool the survey results across the utilities and use them to update the analytical engines that drive the ICE Calculator. The ICE Calculator 2 Initiative is being conducted in phases. Each phase involves the administration of interruption cost surveys to the customers of sponsoring utilities, followed by an update to the ICE Calculator based on analysis of the pooled survey results. This report describes the activities and findings from Phase 1 and 2 of the ICE Calculator 2 Initiative. Phase 1 was sponsored by eight utilities: American Electric Power, Commonwealth Edison, Dominion Energy, Duke Energy, DTE Electric, Exelon, National Grid, and Puget Sound Energy. Phase 2 was sponsored by six utilities: Empire District Electric Company, Evergy Missouri, Pacific Gas & Electric, San Diego Gas & Electric, Southern California Edison, and Union Electric. Phase 1 and 2 involved 15 customer interruption cost survey activities representing a total of 30 electricity distribution service territories. ICE Calculator Version 2.0 and 2.2 Comparison This memorandum describes–at a high-level–the improvements in interruption cost estimates for the version 2.2 of the ICE Calculator (released February 2026) compared to version 2.0 (released in April 2025). Version 2.2 of the ICE Calculator corresponds to Phase 2 of the initiative, while version 2.0 corresponds to Phase 1. The improvements in version 2.2 result from both a significant increase in the number of customer responses that have been collected and the identification of seven additional factors that help estimate customer interruption costs.

24 POWER TRANSMISSION AND DISTRIBUTION

Accelerating Resilience of the Community through Holistic Engagement and use of Renewables (ARCHER) Planning Framework

The primary objective of the Accelerating Resilience of the Community through Holistic Engagement and Use of Renewables (ARCHER) initiative was to identify and incorporate the unique variations in energy burden, social vulnerability, living conditions, and access to essential services that differ across communities. By accounting for these localized factors—down to the neighborhood level—the project supports more targeted and effective investments in community resilience. The framework seeks to establish practical planning guidance, methods, and performance measures for community energy resilience, integrate community-level and electric utility system resilience planning, and assess its effectiveness through comparison with conventional and operational planning approaches. A key component of the project was its data exchange platform, which is used to evaluate and demonstrate the tools, methodologies, and planning approaches developed through ARCHER. This open-source platform enables developers and vendors of distribution and outage management systems to build upon the research by incorporating its concepts into their own tools and workflows. This capability is enabled by the transparent availability of data, functional requirements, and the underlying information model. The project yielded several important insights. First, meaningful engagement with communities is essential to achieving comprehensive resilience outcomes. Second, resilience planning is most effective when electric grid considerations and broader community needs are addressed in a coordinated manner. Third, the use of platforms that allow for real-time input from communities can enhance utility responsiveness during restoration activities. Fourth, a structured and systematic planning approach can successfully translate ARCHER concepts into practice. Fifth, the development of an integrated metric that reflects both grid performance and community impacts provides a more holistic basis for evaluating resilience. Finally, incorporating community engagement and equity considerations into grid operations is critical, particularly during severe weather events that result in extended outages.

24 POWER TRANSMISSION AND DISTRIBUTION

Omega-Limit Sets and Input-To-State Stability in Power Grids with Switching Equilibria

This paper studies a power transmission system with both conventional generators (CGs) and distributed energy assets (DEAs) providing frequency control. We consider an operating condition with demand aggregating two dynamic components: one that switches between different values on a finite set, and one that varies smoothly over time. Such dynamic operating conditions may result from protection scheme activations, external cyber-attacks, or due to the integration of dynamic loads, such as data centers. Mathematically, the dynamics of the resulting system are captured by a system that switches between a finite number of vector fields - or modes -, with each mode having a distinct equilibrium point induced by the demand aggregation. To analyze the stability properties of the resulting switching system, we leverage tools from hybrid dynamic inclusions and the concept of ..omega.. -limit sets from sets. Specifically, we characterize a compact set that is semi-globally practically asymptotically stable under the assumption that the switching frequency and load variation rate are sufficiently slow. For arbitrarily fast variations of the load, we use a level-set argument with multiple Lyapunov functions to establish input-to-state stability of a larger set and with respect to the rate of change of the loads. The theoretical results are illustrated via numerical simulations on the IEEE 39-bus test system.

24 POWER TRANSMISSION AND DISTRIBUTION

Instrument Performance of GISMO, a 2 Millimeter TES Bolometer Camera used at the IRAM 30 m Telescope

In November of 2007 we demonstrated a monolithic Backshort-Under-Grid (BUG) 8x16 array in the field using our 2 mm wavelength imager GISMO (Goddard IRAM Superconducting 2 Millimeter Observer) at the IRAM 30 m telescope in Spain for astronomical observations. The 2 mm spectral range provides a unique terrestrial window enabling ground-based observations of the earliest active dusty galaxies in the universe and thereby allowing a better constraint on the star formation rate in these objects. The optical design incorporates a 100 mm diameter silicon lens cooled to 4 K, which provides the required fast beam yielding 0.9 lambda/D pixels. With this spatial sampling, GISMO will be very efficient at detecting sources serendipitously in large sky surveys, while the capability for diffraction limited imaging is preserved. The camera provides significantly greater detection sensitivity and mapping speed at this wavelength than has previously been possible. The instrument will fill in the spectral energy distribution of high redshift galaxies at the Rayleigh-Jeans part of the dust emission spectrum, even at the highest redshifts. Here1 will we present early results from our observing run with the first fielded BUG bolometer array. We have developed key technologies to enable highly versatile, kilopixel, infrared through millimeter wavelength bolometer arrays. The Backshort-Under-Grid (BUG) array consists of three components: 1) a transition-edge-sensor (TES) based bolometer array with background-limited sensitivity and high filling factor, 2) a quarter-wave reflective backshort grid providing high optical efficiency, and 3) a superconducting bump-bonded large format Superconducting Quantum Interference Device (SQUID) multiplexer readout. The array is described in more detail elsewhere (Allen et al., this conference). In November of 2007 we demonstrated a monolithic 8x 16 array with 2 mm-pitch detectors in the field using our 2 mm wavelength imager GISMO (Goddard IRAM Superconducting 2 Millimeter Observer) at the IRAM 30 m telescope in Spain for astronomical observations. The 2 mm spectral range provides a unique terrestrial window enabling ground-based observations of the earliest active dusty galaxies in the universe and thereby allowing a better constraint on the star formation rate in these objects. The optical design incorporates a 100 mm diameter silicon lens cooled to 4 K, which provides the required fast beam yielding 0.9 lambda1D pixels. With this spatial sampling, GISMO will be very efficient at detecting sources serendipitously in large sky surveys, while the capability for diffraction limited imaging is preserved. The camera provides significantly greater detection sensitivity and mapping speed at this wavelength than has previously been possible. The instrument will fill in the spectral energy distribution of high redshift galaxies at the Rayleigh-Jeans part of the dust emission spectrum, even at the highest redshifts. Here I will we present early results from our observing run with the first fielded BUG bolometer array.

Staguhn, Johannes

Snow and Ice Products from the Moderate Resolution Imaging Spectroradiometer

Snow and sea ice products, derived from the Moderate Resolution Imaging Spectroradiometer (MODIS) instrument, flown on the Terra and Aqua satellites, are or will be available through the National Snow and Ice Data Center Distributed Active Archive Center (DAAC). The algorithms that produce the products are automated, thus providing a consistent global data set that is suitable for climate studies. The suite of MODIS snow products begins with a 500-m resolution, 2330-km swath snow-cover map that is then projected onto a sinusoidal grid to produce daily and 8-day composite tile products. The sequence proceeds to daily and 8-day composite climate-modeling grid (CMG) products at 0.05 resolution. A daily snow albedo product will be available in early 2003 as a beta test product. The sequence of sea ice products begins with a swath product at 1-km resolution that provides sea ice extent and ice-surface temperature (IST). The sea ice swath products are then mapped onto the Lambert azimuthal equal area or EASE-Grid projection to create a daily and 8-day composite sea ice tile product, also at 1 -km resolution. Climate-Modeling Grid (CMG) sea ice products in the EASE-Grid projection at 4-km resolution are planned for early 2003.

Hall, Dorothy K.

Integrated Distribution Planning

The contemporary distribution planning landscape is comprised of an increasing number of factors that require integration into the engineering of the modern electric grid. Expectations for electric utilities to accommodate heightened awareness of stakeholders' interest in things like decarbonization, resilience and equity are growing. As these interests are formed into objectives, many jurisdictions will experience increasing levels of load modifying technologies like DER, building and industrial electrification and electric vehicles which prove not only to challenge the capabilities of the grid; but the processes by which planning for it is traditionally done. Other related factors that strain the conventional distribution planning mold are the swelling amount and sources of data associated with these technologies and the need it creates for improved capabilities in the processes and tools that manage it. As the complexity of the distribution system expands, so will the distribution system's effects on the transmission and generation systems that it is a part of. Forecasting distribution system load and DER are examples of areas where this complexity will manifest, and harmonizing distribution forecasting with transmission and generation forecasting requires higher amounts of intentionality as these typically separate processes become a solitary one. Of course, core activities do not cease as a utility begins to integrate these other factors, and in this webinar we explore specifics of how distribution planning can be expected to evolve as progress towards Integrated Distribution System Planning is made.

24 POWER TRANSMISSION AND DISTRIBUTION

A Review of Unmanned Aerial Vehicle Technology in Power Line Inspection

The electric power industry is one of the heaviest adopters of Unmanned Aerial Vehicles (UAV) technology, utilizing their versatility to enhance power line maintenance programs. For reliable power grids, routine maintenance operations and rapid repair operations are required across substantial geographical distances. Both maintenance and repair decisions are driven by assessment operations, such as inspections of mechanical structures with visible-band sensors, inspections for the presence of high voltage coronas and hot spots with multispectral sensors, and surveying of equipment and adjacent features (particularly vegetation) with photogrammetric and Light Detection and Ranging (LiDAR) sensors. Assessment was historically accomplished with manned helicopter flights or foot patrols. Recently, this critical economic segment harnessed advances in Unmanned Aerial Systems (UAS)technology to accomplish assessment tasks with faster results, lower cost, and higher levels of safety than historical methods. Adoption of UAVs in high-voltage electric power transmission activities is well underway. Adoption of UAVs for low voltage distribution activities is still emerging, with the important exception of post-storm damage assessment following major hurricanes (Harvey and Maria in 2017 and Michael in 2018). This report reviews the broad UAS adoption in high-voltage electric power transmission operations and early attempts at adoption in distribution operations. The ability to fly beyond visual line of sight (BVLOS) may increase the advantages of UAV inspection over former options, and in the United States, regulators have approved two pilot projects to demonstrate BVLOS methods and their benefits in operating and maintaining the power grid.

UAV

Southern Great Plains 1997 hydrology experiment: The spatial and temporal distribution of soil moisture within a quarter section pasture field

Understanding the spatial and temporal distribution of soil moisture near the soil surface is important to relate ground truth data to remotely sensed data using an electronically scanned thinned array radiometer (ESTAR). The research was conducted at the A-ARM EF site in the Little Washita Watershed in Chickasha Oklahoma. Soil moisture was measured on a 100 x 100-m grid on a quarter section (0.8 km by 0.8 km) size field where the DOE A-ARM SWATS is located. This site has several drainage channels and small ponds. The site is under four different land use practices, namely active pastureland, non-grazed pastureland covered with thick grass, forest area covered with trees, and a single residential area. Soil moisture was measured with a Time Domain Reflectometry (TDR) Delta-T 6-cm theta-probe and gravimetric soil moisture (GSM) technique for the top 6 cm of the soil depth. A fourth order polynomial equation was fitted to each probe calibration curve. The correlation between TDR and GSM measurement technique ranges from 0.81 to 0.91. Comparison of the spatial and temporal distribution of soil moisture measured by the TDR and GSM techniques showed very strong similarities. Such TDR probes can be used successfully to replace the GSM techniques to measure soil moisture content rapidly and accurately with site specific calibration.

Tsegaye, T.

The Suomi National Polar-Orbiting Partnership (SNPP): Continuing NASA Research and Applications

The Suomi National Polar-orbiting Partnership (SNPP) satellite was successfully launched into a polar orbit on October 28, 2011 carrying 5 remote sensing instruments designed to provide data to improve weather forecasts and to increase understanding of long-term climate change. SNPP provides operational continuity of satellite-based observations for NOAA's Polar-orbiting Operational Environmental Satellites (POES) and continues the long-term record of climate quality observations established by NASA's Earth Observing System (EOS) satellites. In the 2003 to 2011 pre-launch timeframe, NASA's SNPP Science Team assessed the adequacy of the operational Raw Data Records (RDRs), Sensor Data Records (SDRs), and Environmental Data Records (EDRs) from the SNPP instruments for use in NASA Earth Science research, examined the operational algorithms used to produce those data records, and proposed a path forward for the production of climate quality products from SNPP. In order to perform these tasks, a distributed data system, the NASA Science Data Segment (SDS), ingested RDRs, SDRs, and EDRs from the NOAA Archive and Distribution and Interface Data Processing Segments, ADS and IDPS, respectively. The SDS also obtained operational algorithms for evaluation purposes from the NOAA Government Resource for Algorithm Verification, Independent Testing and Evaluation (GRAVITE). Within the NASA SDS, five Product Evaluation and Test Elements (PEATEs) received, ingested, and stored data and performed NASA's data processing, evaluation, and analysis activities. The distributed nature of this data distribution system was established by physically housing each PEATE within one of five Climate Analysis Research Systems (CARS) located at either at a NASA or a university institution. The CARS were organized around 5 key EDRs directly in support of the following NASA Earth Science focus areas: atmospheric sounding, ocean, land, ozone, and atmospheric composition products. The PEATES provided the system level interface with members of the NASA SNPP Science Team and other science investigators within each CARS. A sixth Earth Radiation Budget CARS was established at NASA Langley Research Center (NASA LaRC) to support instrument performance, data evaluation, and analysis for the SNPP Clouds and the Earth's Radiant Budget Energy System (CERES) instrument. Following the 2011 launch of SNPP, spacecraft commissioning, and instrument activation, the NASA SNPP Science Team evaluated the operational RDRs, SDRs, and EDRs produced by the NOAA ADS and IDPS. A key part in that evaluation was the NASA Science Team's independent processing of operational RDRs and SDRs to EDRs using the latest NASA science algorithms. The NASA science evaluation was completed in the December 2012 to April 2014 timeframe with the release of a series of NASA Science Team Discipline Reports. In summary, these reports indicated that the RDRs produced by the SNPP instruments were of sufficiently high quality to be used to create data products suitable for NASA Earth System science and applications. However, the quality of the SDRs and EDRs were found to vary greatly when considering suitability for NASA science. The need for improvements in operational algorithms, adoption of different algorithmic approaches, greater monitoring of on-orbit instrument calibration, greater attention to data product validation, and data reprocessing were prominent findings in the reports. In response to these findings, NASA, in late 2013, directed the NASA SNPP Science Team to use SNPP instrument data to develop data products of sufficiently high quality to enable the continuation of EOS time series data records and to develop innovative, practical applications of SNPP data. This direction necessitated a transition of the SDS data system from its pre-launch assessment mode to one of full data processing and production. To do this, the PEATES, which served as NASA's data product testing environment during the prelaunch and early on-orbit periods, were transitioned to Science Investigator-led Processing Systems (SIPS). The distributed data architecture was maintained in this new system by locating the SIPS at the same institutions at which the CARS and PEATES were located. The SIPS acquire raw SNPP instrument Level 0 (i.e. RDR) data over the full SNPP mission from the NOAA ADS and IDPS through the NASA SDS Data Distribution and Depository Element (SD3E). The SIPS process those data into NASA Level 1, Level 2, and global, gridded Level 3 standard products using peer-reviewed algorithms provided by members of the NASA Science Team. The SIPS work with the NASA SNPP Science Team in obtaining enhanced, refined, or alternate real-time algorithms to support the capabilities of the Direct Readout Laboratory (DRL). All data products, algorithm source codes, coefficients, and auxiliary data used in product generation are archived in an assigned NASA Distributed Active Archive Center (DAAC).

remote sensing

Grid connection barriers to renewable energy deployment in the United States

Bulk-power grid connection is an emerging bottleneck to the entry of wind, solar, and storage but has been understudied due to a lack of data. We create and analyze two novel interconnection datasets with more than 38,000 project-level observations that provide new information documenting interconnection challenges in the United States. Active grid connection requests are more than double the total installed capacity of the US power plant fleet (2,600 vs. 1,280 GW). The time required to secure a connection has increased by 70% over the last decade, and withdrawal rates remain high at 80%, suggesting a constrained transmission system that jeopardizes energy transition targets. Wide distributions of interconnection costs indicate the inherent uncertainty of the interconnection process. Interconnection requests that identify large transmission upgrades tend to withdraw from the process. These findings suggest the need for interconnection reforms, tighter links between long-term transmission planning and project-level interconnection processes, and more interconnection outcome transparency.

29 ENERGY PLANNING, POLICY, AND ECONOMY

A Hardware-in-the-Loop Experimental Testbed Using Air Conditioners for Grid Balancing

Driven by the need to offset the variability of renewable generation on the grid, development of load control is a highly active field of research. However, practical use of residential loads for grid balancing remains rare, in part due to the cost of communicating with large numbers of small loads and also the limited experimentation done so far to demonstrate reliable operation. To establish a basis for the safe and reliable use of fleets of compressor loads as distributed energy resources, we constructed an experimental testbed in a laboratory, so that load coordination schemes could be tested at extreme conditions. Here, this experimental testbed was used to tune a simulation testbed to which it was then linked, thereby augmenting the effective size of the fleet. Modeling of the system was done both to demonstrate the experimental testbed's behavior and also to understand how to tune the behavior of each load. Implementing this testbed has enabled rapid turnaround of experiments on various load control algorithms, and year-round testing without the constraints and limitations arising in seasonal field tests with real houses. Experimental results show the practical feasibility of an ensemble of small loads contributing to grid balancing.

Air Conditioners

Using Flow Regime Lightning and Sounding Climatologies to Initialize Gridded Lightning Threat Forecasts for East Central Florida

Each morning, the forecasters at the National Weather Service in Melbourne, FL (NWS MLB) produce an experimental cloud-to-ground (CG) lightning threat index map for their county warning area (CWA) that is posted to their web site (http://www.srh.weather.gov/mlb/ghwo/lightning.shtml) . Given the hazardous nature of lightning in East Central Florida, especially during the warm season months of May September, these maps help users factor the threat of lightning, relative to their location, into their daily plans. The maps are color-coded in five levels from Very Low to Extreme, with threat level definitions based on the probability of lightning occurrence and the expected amount of CG activity. On a day in which thunderstorms are expected, there are typically two or more threat levels depicted spatially across the CWA. The locations of relative lightning threat maxima and minima often depend on the position and orientation of the low-level ridge axis, forecast propagation and interaction of sea/lake/outflow boundaries, expected evolution of moisture and stability fields, and other factors that can influence the spatial distribution of thunderstorms over the CWA. The lightning threat index maps are issued for the 24-hour period beginning at 1200 UTC each day with a grid resolution of 5 km x 5 km. Product preparation is performed on the AWIPS Graphical Forecast Editor (GFE), which is the standard NWS platform for graphical editing. Currently, the forecasters create each map manually, starting with a blank map. To improve efficiency of the forecast process, NWS MLB requested that the Applied Meteorology Unit (AMU) create gridded warm season lightning climatologies that could be used as first-guess inputs to initialize lightning threat index maps. The gridded values requested included CG strike densities and frequency of occurrence stratified by synoptic-scale flow regime. The intent is to improve consistency between forecasters while allowing them to focus on the mesoscale detail of the forecast, ultimately benefiting the end-users of the product. Several studies took place at the Florida State University (FSU) and NWS Tallahassee (TAE) in which they created daily flow regimes using Florida 1200 UTC synoptic soundings and CG strike densities, or number of strikes per specified area. The soundings used to determine the flow regimes were taken at Miami (MIA), Tampa (TBW), and Jacksonville (JAX), FL, and the lightning data for the strike densities came from the National Lightning Detection Network (NLDN). The densities were created on a 2.5 km x 2.5 km grid for every hour of every day during the warm seasons in the years 1989-2004. The grids encompass an area that includes the entire state of Florida and adjacent Atlantic and Gulf of Mexico waters. Personnel at FSU and NWS TAE provided this data and supporting software for the work performed by the AMU.

Lambert, Winifred

Using Flow Regime Lightning and Sounding Climatologies to Initialize Gridded Lightning Threat Forecasts for East Central Florida

Each morning, the forecasters at the National Weather Service in Melbourne, FL (NWS MLB) produce an experimental cloud-to-ground (CG) lightning threat index map for their county warning area (CWA) that is posted to their web site (httl://www.srh.weather.gov/mlb/ghwo/lightning.shtml) . Given the hazardous nature of lightning in East Central Florida, especially during the warm season months of May September, these maps help users factor the threat of lightning, relative to their location, into their daily plans. The maps are color-coded in five levels from Very Low to Extreme, with threat level definitions based on the probability of lightning occurrence and the expected amount of CG activity. On a day in which thunderstorms are expected, there are typically two or more threat levels depicted spatially across the CWA. The locations of relative lightning threat maxima and minima often depend on the position and orientation of the low-level ridge axis, forecast propagation and interaction of sea/lake/outflow boundaries, expected evolution of moisture and stability fields, and other factors that can influence the spatial distribution of thunderstorms over the CWA. The lightning threat index maps are issued for the 24-hour period beginning at 1200 UTC each day with a grid resolution of 5 km x 5 km. Product preparation is performed on the AWIPS Graphical Forecast Editor (GFE), which is the standard NWS platform for graphical editing. Until recently, the forecasters created each map manually, starting with a blank map. To improve efficiency of the forecast process, NWS MLB requested that the Applied Meteorology Unit (AMU) create gridded warm season lightning climatologies that could be used as first-guess inputs to initialize lightning threat index maps. The gridded values requested included CG strike densities and frequency of occurrence stratified by synoptic-scale flow regime. The intent was to improve consistency between forecasters while allowing them to focus on the mesoscale detail of the forecast. Several studies took place at the Florida State University (FSU) and NWS Tallahassee (TAE) in which they created daily flow regimes using Florida 1200 UTC synoptic soundings and CG strike densities, or number of strikes per specified area. The soundings used to determine the flow regimes were taken at Miami (MIA), Tampa (TBW), and Jacksonville (JAX), FL, and the lightning data for the strike densities came from the National Lightning Detection Network (NLDN). The densities were created on a 2.5 km x 2.5 km grid for every hour of every day during the warm seasons in the years 1989-2004. The grids encompass an area that includes the entire state of Florida and adjacent Atlantic and Gulf of Mexico waters. Personnel at FSU and NWS TAE provided this data and supporting software for the work performed by the AMU.

Lambert, Winifred