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Cell-wall architecture and lignin composition of wheat developed in a microgravity environment

The microgravity environment encountered during space-flight has long been considered to affect plant growth and developmental processes, including cell wall biopolymer composition and content. As a prelude to studying how microgravity is perceived - and acted upon - by plants, it was first instructive to investigate what gross effects on plant growth and development occurred in microgravity. Thus, wheat seedlings were exposed to microgravity on board the space shuttle Discovery (STS-51) for a 10 day duration, and these specimens were compared with their counterparts grown on Earth under the same conditions (e.g. controls). First, the primary roots of the wheat that developed under both microgravity and 1 g on Earth were examined to assess the role of gravity on cellulose microfibril (CMF) organization and secondary wall thickening patterns. Using a quick freeze/deep etch technique, this revealed that the cell wall CMFs of the space-grown wheat maintained the same organization as their 1 g-grown counterparts. That is, in all instances, CMFs were randomly interwoven with each other in the outermost layers (farthest removed from the plasma membrane), and parallel to each other within the individual strata immediately adjacent to the plasma membranes. The CMF angle in the innermost stratum relative to the immediately adjacent stratum was ca 80 degrees in both the space and Earth-grown plants. Second, all plants grown in microgravity had roots that grew downwards into the agar; they did not display "wandering" and upward growth as previously reported by others. Third, the space-grown wheat also developed normal protoxylem and metaxylem vessel elements with secondary thickening patterns ranging from spiral to regular pit to reticulate thickenings. Fourthly, both the space- and Earth-grown plants were essentially of the same size and height, and their lignin analyses revealed no substantial differences in their amounts and composition regardless of the gravitational field experienced, i.e. for the purposes of this study, all plants were essentially identical. These results suggest that the microgravity environment itself at best only slightly affected either cell wall biopolymer synthesis or the deposition of CMFs, in contrast to previous assertions.

manned

Reduced phenylalanine ammonia-lyase and tyrosine ammonia-lyase activities and lignin synthesis in wheat grown under low pressure sodium lamps

Wheat (Triticum aestivum L. cv Fremont) grown in hydroponic culture under 24-hour continuous irradiation at 560 to 580 micromoles per square meter per second from either metalhalide (MH), high pressure sodium (HPS), or low pressure sodium (LPS) lamps reached maturity in 70 days. Grain yields were similar under all three lamps, although LPS-grown plants lodged at maturity. Phenylalanine ammonia-lyase (PAL) and a tyrosine ammonia lyase (TAL) with lesser activity were detected in all extracts of leaf, inflorescence, and stem. Ammonia-lyase activities increased with age of the plant, and plants grown under the LPS lamp displayed PAL and TAL activities lower than wheat cultured under MH and HPS radiation. Greenhouse solar-grown wheat had the highest PAL and TAL activities. Lignin content of LPS-grown wheat was also significantly reduced from that of plants grown under MH or HPS lamps or in the greenhouse, showing a correlation with the reduced PAL and TAL activities. Ratios of far red-absorbing phytochrome to total phytochrome were similar for all three lamps, but the data do not yet warrant a conclusion about specific wavelengths missing from the LPS lamps that might have induced PAL and TAL activities in plants under the other lamps.

Triticum/enzymology/growth & development/metabolis

[Cyto-embryologic investigation of super dwarf wheat grown on board of the Mir orbital complex]

The cytoembryologic analysis of wet and dry samples of super dwarf wheat cultivated in greenhouse SVET aboard the MIR station over the whole cycle of vegetation was made with the use of light microscopy. Characteristic features of wheat development in space flight are plentiful early tillering, and formation and rapid growth of side shoots. Elementary spikelets in the composite head were more numerous but the top spikelets were rudimentary and, therefore, the ripe head contained less of these spikelets as compared with the ground controls (9-13 and 14, respectively). The number of florets in a spike was also higher reaching 14-16 vs. 7-8 in the control. Typically, no more than 4 to 5 florets vs. 3 in the control were fully differentiated while the others died off earlier in development. The fact that there were no caryopses found in the flight crop is explained by absolute male sterility appearing at different stages of staminal development: before archesporium formation, on the stage of differentiated archesporium, during meiosis, on the stage of microspores or uninucleate "pollen". The female generative system developed mainly without abnormalities. An assumption was made that elevated ethylene concentrations in the MIR atmosphere at the time of the wheat experiment were the cause for abnormal development of the male generative system which led to barrenness of the super dwarf wheat crop.

manned

Classifying Multi-Model Wheat Yield Impact Response Surfaces Showing Sensitivity to Temperature and Precipitation Change

Crop growth simulation models can differ greatly in their treatment of key processes and hence in their response to environmental conditions. Here, we used an ensemble of 26 process-based wheat models applied at sites across a European transect to compare their sensitivity to changes in temperature (minus 2 to plus 9 degrees Centigrade) and precipitation (minus 50 to plus 50 percent). Model results were analysed by plotting them as impact response surfaces (IRSs), classifying the IRS patterns of individual model simulations, describing these classes and analysing factors that may explain the major differences in model responses. The model ensemble was used to simulate yields of winter and spring wheat at four sites in Finland, Germany and Spain. Results were plotted as IRSs that show changes in yields relative to the baseline with respect to temperature and precipitation. IRSs of 30-year means and selected extreme years were classified using two approaches describing their pattern. The expert diagnostic approach (EDA) combines two aspects of IRS patterns: location of the maximum yield (nine classes) and strength of the yield response with respect to climate (four classes), resulting in a total of 36 combined classes defined using criteria pre-specified by experts. The statistical diagnostic approach (SDA) groups IRSs by comparing their pattern and magnitude, without attempting to interpret these features. It applies a hierarchical clustering method, grouping response patterns using a distance metric that combines the spatial correlation and Euclidian distance between IRS pairs. The two approaches were used to investigate whether different patterns of yield response could be related to different properties of the crop models, specifically their genealogy, calibration and process description. Although no single model property across a large model ensemble was found to explain the integrated yield response to temperature and precipitation perturbations, the application of the EDA and SDA approaches revealed their capability to distinguish: (i) stronger yield responses to precipitation for winter wheat than spring wheat; (ii) differing strengths of response to climate changes for years with anomalous weather conditions compared to period-average conditions; (iii) the influence of site conditions on yield patterns; (iv) similarities in IRS patterns among models with related genealogy; (v) similarities in IRS patterns for models with simpler process descriptions of root growth and water uptake compared to those with more complex descriptions; and (vi) a closer correspondence of IRS patterns in models using partitioning schemes to represent yield formation than in those using a harvest index. Such results can inform future crop modelling studies that seek to exploit the diversity of multi-model ensembles, by distinguishing ensemble members that span a wide range of responses as well as those that display implausible behaviour or strong mutual similarities.

Classification; Climate change; Crop model; Ensemb

Remote Sensing Based Yield Monitoring: Application to Winter Wheat in United States and Ukraine

Accurate and timely crop yield forecasts are critical for making informed agricultural policies and investments, as well as increasing market efficiency and stability. Earth observation data from space can contribute to agricultural monitoring, including crop yield assessment and forecasting. In this study, we present a new crop yield model based on the Difference Vegetation Index (DVI) extracted from Moderate Resolution Imaging Spectroradiometer (MODIS) data at 1 km resolution and the un-mixing of DVI at coarse resolution to a pure wheat signal (100 percent of wheat within the pixel). The model was applied to estimate the national and subnational winter wheat yield in the United States and Ukraine from 2001 to 2017. The model at the subnational level shows very good performance for both countries with a coefficient of determination higher than 0.7 and a root mean square error (RMSE) of lower than 0.6 t/ha (tonnes per hectare) (15-18 percent). At the national level for the United States (US) and Ukraine the model provides a strong coefficient of determination of 0.81 and 0.86, respectively, which demonstrates good performance at this scale. The model was also able to capture low winter wheat yields during years with extreme weather events, for example 2002 in US and 2003 in Ukraine. The RMSE of the model for the US at the national scale is 0.11 t/ha (3.7 percent) while for Ukraine it is 0.27 t/ha (8.4 percent).

DVI

Remote Sensing Based Yield Monitoring: Application to Winter Wheat in United States and Ukraine

Accurate and timely crop yield forecasts are critical for making informed agricultural policies and investments, as well as increasing market efficiency and stability. Earth observation data from space can contribute to agricultural monitoring, including crop yield assessment and forecasting. In this study, we present a new crop yield model based on the Difference Vegetation Index (DVI) extracted from Moderate Resolution Imaging Spectroradiometer (MODIS) data at 1 km resolution and the un-mixing of DVI at coarse resolution to a pure wheat signal (100% of wheat within the pixel). The model was applied to estimate the national and subnational winter wheat yield in the United States and Ukraine from 2001 to 2017. The model at the subnational level shows very good performance for both countries with a coefficient of determination higher than 0.7 and a root mean square error (RMSE) of lower than 0.6 t/ha (15–18%). At the national level for the United States (US) and Ukraine the model provides a strong coefficient of determination of 0.81 and 0.86, respectively, which demonstrates good performance at this scale. The model was also able to capture low winter wheat yields during years with extreme weather events, for example 2002 in US and 2003 in Ukraine. The RMSE of the model for the US at the national scale is 0.11 t/ha (3.7%) while for Ukraine it is 0.27 t/ha (8.4%).

remote sensing

Evaluation of Near-Surface Air Temperature from Reanalysis over the United States and Ukraine: Application to Winter Wheat Yield Forecasting

In this work we evaluate the near-surface air temperature datasets from the ERA-Interim, JRA55, MERRA2, NCEP1, and NCEP2 reanalysis projects. Reanalysis data were first compared to observations from weather stations located on wheat areas of the United States and Ukraine, and then evaluated in the context of a winter wheat yield forecast model. Results from the comparison with weather station data showed that all datasets performed well (r2>0.95) and that more modern reanalysis such as ERAI had lower errors (RMSD ~ 0.9) than the older, lower resolution datasets like NCEP1 (RMSD ~ 2.4). We also analyze the impact of using surface air temperature data from different reanalysis products on the estimations made by a winter wheat yield forecast model. The forecast model uses information of the accumulated Growing Degree Day (GDD) during the growing season to estimate the peak NDVI signal. When the temperature data from the different reanalysis projects were used in the yield model to compute the accumulated GDD and forecast the winter wheat yield, the results showed smaller variations between obtained values, with differences in yield forecast error of around 2% in the most extreme case. These results suggest that the impact of temperature discrepancies between datasets in the yield forecast model get diminished as the values are accumulated through the growing season.

GSOD

Evaluation of the Tau-Omega Model Over Bare and Wheat-Covered Flat and Periodic Soil Surfaces at P- and L-band

It has been over ten years since the successful launch of the first-ever dedicated satellite for global soil moisture monitoring; Soil Moisture and Ocean Salinity (SMOS). Looking towards the future, P-band (0.3-1 GHz) is a promising technique to replace or enhance the L-band (1.4 GHz) SMOS and SMAP (Soil Moisture Active Passive) missions because of an expected reduction in roughness and vegetation impact, leading to an improved soil moisture accuracy over rougher soil surfaces and more densely vegetated areas. Accordingly, this investigation evaluated the tau-omega model at P-band (0.75 GHz) using a tower-based experiment in Victoria, Australia, where brightness temperature observations were collected concurrently at P- and L-band over bare and wheat-covered flat and periodic soil surfaces. The potential to retrieve soil moisture without discriminating periodic and flat surfaces was investigated by applying the roughness and vegetation parameters calibrated for flat soil to retrieve the moisture of periodic soil. Results showed that P-band had a comparable RMSE across different roughness configurations (variations less than 0.016 m3/m3) for both bare and wheat-covered soil, while the L-band RMSE was only comparable for wheat-covered soil, indicating that periodic surfaces did not need to be discriminated in such scenarios. Conversely, a difference of 0.022 m3/m3 was observed for L-band with bare soil. A reduced vegetation impact was also demonstrated at P-band, with an RMSE of 0.029 m3/m3 achieved when completely ignoring the wheat existence with under 4-kg/m2 vegetation water content, whereas at L-band the RMSE increased to 0.063 m3/m3. This study therefore paves the way for a successful P-band radiometer mission for obtaining more accurate global soil moisture information.

P-band

Unveiling the drivers contributing to global wheat yield shocks through quantile regression

Sudden reductions in crop yield (i.e., yield shocks) severely disrupt the food supply, intensify food insecurity, depress farmers' welfare, and worsen a country's economic conditions. Here, we study the spatiotemporal patterns of wheat yield shocks, quantified by the lower quantiles of yield fluctuations, in 86 countries over 30 years. Furthermore, we assess the relationships between shocks and their key ecological and socioeconomic drivers using quantile regression based on statistical (linear quantile mixed model) and machine learning (quantile random forest) models. Using a panel dataset that captures spatiotemporal patterns of yield shocks and possible drivers in 86 countries, we find that the severity of yield shocks has been increasing globally since 1997. Moreover, our cross-validation exercise shows that quantile random forest outperforms the linear quantile regression model. Despite this performance difference, both models consistently reveal that the severity of shocks is associated with higher weather stress, nitrogen fertilizer application rate, and gross domestic product (GDP) per capita (a typical indicator for economic and technological advancement in a country). While the unexpected negative association between more severe wheat yield shocks and higher fertilizer application rate and GDP per capita does not imply a direct causal effect, they indicate that the advancement in wheat production has been primarily on achieving higher yields and less on lowering the possibility and magnitude of sharp yield reductions. Hence, in the context of growing extreme weather stress, there is a critical need to enhance the technology and management practices that mitigate yield shocks to improve the resilience of the world food systems.

60 APPLIED LIFE SCIENCES

Data and Code for: Observation-constrained agroecosystem model inversion reveals continental-scale variation of winter wheat traits

This repository contains the simulation outputs and processing scripts associated with the study of winter wheat traits across the United States, utilizing the Ecosys agroecosystem model. The dataset includes model results for both rainfed and irrigated winter wheat systems, supporting the findings presented in the manuscript titled "Observation-constrained agroecosystem model inversion reveals continental-scale variation of winter wheat traits." Data includes the original Ecosys simulation outputs (archived in .db format within the compressed .zip files) and extracted analysis data (stored in .pkl files for efficient processing). Python code for data processing and figure generation is provided in a Jupyter notebook. External Observational Datasets should refer to the following official repositories for the input and validation data used in this study. The eddy covariance data from the AmeriFlux network (https://ameriflux.lbl.gov/). Climate-forcing data of NLDAS-2 from NASA LDAS (https://ldas.gsfc.nasa.gov/nldas/nldas-2-forcing-data). Soil data from the Gridded Soil Survey Geographic Database (gSSURGO), available at (https://www.nrcs.usda.gov/resources/data-and-reports/gridded-soil-survey-geographic-gssurgo-database). Crop yields, planting and harvest dates from the USDA public databases (https://quickstats.nass.usda.gov/; https://webapp.rma.usda.gov/apps/actuarialinformationbrowser/CropCriteria.aspx). Satellite-derived SLOPE GPP data from ORNL DAAC (https://daac.ornl.gov/cgi-bin/dsviewer.pl?ds_id=1786). Land use and crop progress information from the USDA Crop Data Layer and Crop Progress and Condition Gridded Layers (https://www.nass.usda.gov/Research_and_Science/). The Ecosys model code is available online at https://github.com/jinyun1tang/ECOSYS.

Wheat

Algae Biofilm Produced from Anaerobic Digester Wastewater Demonstrated as Biofertilizer for Dwarf Wheat

Aims: To correlate yield of dwarf wheat fertilized with algae biofilm produced using anaerobic digester effluent (digestate) from a municipal water resource recovery facility as nutrient source and compare with yield using non-algae biofilm based fertilizers and a negative control. Study Design: Greenhouse testing for measurement of biomass yields and statistical analysis of wheat yield data results. Place and Duration of Study: Department of Biological Engineering Algae Processing and Products Facility greenhouse between March and June, 2024. Methodology: Yield of a dwarf cultivar of red spring wheat was measured as a function of four treatments including three fertilizers and a negative control: (1) algae biofilm cultivated on anaerobic digester effluent, (2) positive control of Osmocote commercial slow release fertilizer, (3) anaerobic digester biosolids, and (4) negative control with no fertilizer addition. Results: Average yield values (gm) for the four treatments were: (1) 1.25, (2) 0.99, (3) 0.72, and (4) 0.52, respectively. Algae biofilm fertilizer performed significantly better than Osmocote with P = .002, anaerobic digester biosolids with P = .05, and no fertilizer addition with P = .05. Struvite, a slow release fertilizer, was observed to be associated with the algae biofilm as a precipitate of the high concentrations of nutrients within the anaerobic digester water. Struvite (MgNH4PO46H2O) releases plant available nitrogen and phosphorus over time and is biologically precipitated due to the increase in solution pH as a result of photosynthesis by the algae biofilm. Conclusion: Algae biofilm cultivated on anaerobic digester wastewater can serve as a biofertilizer for recycling nutrients within the biosphere for sustainable nutrient management.

09 BIOMASS FUELS

Multi-Wheat-Model Ensemble Responses to Interannual Climate Variability

We compare 27 wheat models' yield responses to interannual climate variability, analyzed at locations in Argentina, Australia, India, and The Netherlands as part of the Agricultural Model Intercomparison and Improvement Project (AgMIP) Wheat Pilot. Each model simulated 1981e2010 grain yield, and we evaluate results against the interannual variability of growing season temperature, precipitation, and solar radiation. The amount of information used for calibration has only a minor effect on most models' climate response, and even small multi-model ensembles prove beneficial. Wheat model clusters reveal common characteristics of yield response to climate; however models rarely share the same cluster at all four sites indicating substantial independence. Only a weak relationship (R2 0.24) was found between the models' sensitivities to interannual temperature variability and their response to long-termwarming, suggesting that additional processes differentiate climate change impacts from observed climate variability analogs and motivating continuing analysis and model development efforts.

uncertainty

Similar Estimates of Temperature Impacts on Global Wheat Yield by Three Independent Methods

The potential impact of global temperature change on global crop yield has recently been assessed with different methods. Here we show that grid-based and point-based simulations and statistical regressions (from historic records), without deliberate adaptation or CO2 fertilization effects, produce similar estimates of temperature impact on wheat yields at global and national scales. With a 1 C global temperature increase, global wheat yield is projected to decline between 4.1% and 6.4%. Projected relative temperature impacts from different methods were similar for major wheat-producing countries China, India, USA and France, but less so for Russia. Point-based and grid-based simulations, and to some extent the statistical regressions, were consistent in projecting that warmer regions are likely to suffer more yield loss with increasing temperature than cooler regions. By forming a multi-method ensemble, it was possible to quantify 'method uncertainty' in addition to model uncertainty. This significantly improves confidence in estimates of climate impacts on global food security.

Climate impacts

Global irrigation contribution to wheat and maize yield

Irrigation is the largest sector of human water use and an important option for increasing crop production and reducing drought impacts. However, the potential for irrigation to contribute to global crop yields remains uncertain. Here, we quantify this contribution for wheat and maize at global scale by developing a Bayesian framework integrating empirical estimates and gridded global crop models on new maps of the relative difference between attainable rainfed and irrigated yield (ΔY). At global scale, ΔY is 34 ± 9% for wheat and 22 ± 13% for maize, with large spatial differences driven more by patterns of precipitation than that of evaporative demand. Comparing irrigation demands with renewable water supply, we find 30–47% of contemporary rainfed agriculture of wheat and maize cannot achieve yield gap closure utilizing current river discharge, unless more water diversion projects are set in place, putting into question the potential of irrigation to mitigate climate change impacts.

Irrigation

Future Climate Change Significantly Alters Interannual Wheat Yield Variability Over Half of Harvested Areas

Climate change affects the spatial and temporal distribution of crop yields, which can critically impair food security across scales. A number of previous studies have assessed the impact of climate change on mean crop yield and future food availability, but much less is known about potential future changes in interannual yield variability. Here, we evaluate future changes in relative interannual global wheat yield variability (the coefficient of variation (CV)) at 0.25° spatial resolution for two representative concentration pathways (RCP4.5 and RCP8.5). A multi-model ensemble of crop model emulators based on global process-based models is used to evaluate responses to changes in temperature, precipitation, and CO2. The results indicate that over 60% of harvested areas could experience significant changes in interannual yield variability under a high-emission scenario by the end of the 21st century (2066–2095). About 31% and 44% of harvested areas are projected to undergo significant reductions of relative yield variability under RCP4.5 and RCP8.5, respectively. In turn, wheat yield is projected to become more unstable across 23% (RCP4.5) and 18% (RCP8.5) of global harvested areas—mostly in hot or low fertilizer input regions, including some of the major breadbasket countries. The major driver of increasing yield CV change is the increase in yield standard deviation, whereas declining yield CV is mostly caused by stronger increases in mean yield than in the standard deviation. Changes in temperature are the dominant cause of change in wheat yield CVs, having a greater influence than changes in precipitation in 53% and 72% of global harvested areas by the end of the century under RCP4.5 and RCP8.5, respectively. This research highlights the potential challenges posed by increased yield variability and the need for tailored regional adaptation strategies.

Climate change

Extreme Lows of Wheat Production in Brazil

Wheat production in Brazil is insufficient to meet domestic demand and falls drastically in response to adverse climate events. Multiple, agro-climate-specific regression models, quantifying regional production variability, were combined to estimate national production based on past climate, cropping area, trend-corrected yield, and national commodity prices. Projections with five CMIP6 climate change models suggest extremes of low wheat production historically occurring once every 20 years would become up to 90% frequent by the end of this century, depending on representative concentration pathway, magnified by wheat and in some cases by maize price fluctuations. Similar impacts can be expected for other crops and in other countries. This drastic increase in frequency in extreme low crop production with climate change will threaten Brazil's and many other countries progress toward food security and abolishing hunger.

Brazil

AmeriFlux FLUXNET-1F US-MN2 Morris: Corn-Soybean-Wheat with Cover Crops, Minimal Tillage

This is the AmeriFlux Management Project (AMP) created FLUXNET-1F version of the carbon flux data for the site US-MN2 Morris: Corn-Soybean-Wheat with Cover Crops, Minimal Tillage. This is the FLUXNET version of the carbon flux data for the site US-MN2 Morris: Corn-Soybean-Wheat with Cover Crops, Minimal Tillage produced by applying the standard ONEFlux (1F) software. Site Description - Cropland, 3-year rotation (corn-soybean-wheat), cover crops (winter camelina and pennycress), minimum tillage, nutrient management by soil tests, uniform pest management, tile drainage

Helseth, Christina [USDA-ARS LTAR]

ERTS-1 data collection systems used to predict wheat disease severities

The author has identified the following significant results. The feasibility of using the data collection system on ERTS-1 to predict wheat leaf rust severity and resulting yield loss was tested. Ground-based data collection platforms (DCP'S), placed in two commercial wheat fields in Riley County, Kansas, transmitted to the satellite such meteorological information as maximum and minimum temperature, relative humidity, and hours of free moisture. Meteorological data received from the two DCP'S from April 23 to 29 were used to estimate the disease progress curve. Values from the curve were used to predict the percentage decrease in wheat yields resulting from leaf rust. Actual decrease in yield was obtained by applying a zinc and maneb spray (5.6 kg/ha) to control leaf rust, then comparing yields of the controlled (healthy) and the noncontrolled (rusted) areas. In each field a 9% decrease in yield was predicted by the DCP-derived data; actual decreases were 12% and 9%.

Kanemasu, E. T.