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Investigating uncertainties in human adaptation and their impacts on water scarcity in the Colorado river Basin, United States

The Colorado River Basin (CRB) supports the water supply for seven states and forty million people in the Western United States (US) and has been suffering an extensive drought for more than two decades. As climate change continues to reshape water resources distribution in the CRB, its impact can differ in intensity and location, resulting in variations in human adaptation behaviors. The feedback from human systems in response to the environmental changes and the associated uncertainty is critical to water resources management, especially for water-stressed basins. This paper investigates how human adaptation affects water scarcity uncertainty in the CRB and highlights the uncertainties in human behavior modeling. Our focus is on agricultural water consumption, as approximately 80% of the water consumption in the CRB is used in agriculture. We adopted a coupled agent-based and water resources modeling approach for exploring human-water system dynamics, in which an agent is a human behavior model that simulates a farmer’s water consumption decisions. We examined uncertainties at the system, agent, and parameter levels through uncertainty, clustering, and sensitivity analyses. The uncertainty analysis results suggest that the CRB water system may experience 13 to 30 years of water shortage during the 2019–2060 simulation period, depending on the paths of farmers’ adaptation. The clustering analysis identified three decision-making classes: bold, prudent, and forward-looking, and quantified the probabilities of an agent belonging to each class. The sensitivity analysis results indicated agents whose decision-making models require further investigation and the parameters with the higher uncertainty reduction potentials. Here, by conducting numerical experiments with the coupled model, this paper presents quantitative and qualitative information about farmers’ adaptation, water scarcity uncertainties, and future research directions for improving human behavior modeling.

Agent-based modeling↗

Material Design Strategies for Recovery of Critical Resources from Water

Population growth, urbanization, and decarbonization efforts are collectively straining the supply of limited resources that are necessary to produce batteries, electronics, chemicals, fertilizers, and other important products. Securing the supply chains of these critical resources via the development of separation technologies for their recovery represents a major global challenge to ensure stability and security. Surface water, groundwater, and wastewater are emerging as potential new sources to bolster these supply chains. Recently, a variety of material-based technologies have been developed and employed for separations and resource recovery in water. Judicious selection and design of these materials to tune their properties for targeting specific solutes is central to realizing the potential of water as a source for critical resources. Here, the materials that are developed for membranes, sorbents, catalysts, electrodes, and interfacial solar steam generators that demonstrate promise for applications in critical resource recovery are reviewed. In addition, a critical perspective is offered on the grand challenges and key research directions that need to be addressed to improve their practical viability.

36 MATERIALS SCIENCE↗

A globally sampled high-resolution hand-labeled validation dataset for evaluating surface water extent maps

Effective monitoring of global water resources is increasingly critical due to climate change and population growth. Advancements in remote sensing technology, specifically in spatial, spectral, and temporal resolutions, are revolutionizing water resource monitoring, leading to more frequent and high-quality surface water extent maps using various techniques such as traditional image processing and machine learning algorithms. However, satellite imagery datasets contain trade-offs that result in inconsistencies in performance, such as disparities in measurement principles between optical (e.g., Sentinel-2) and radar (e.g., Sentinel-1) sensors and differences in spatial and spectral resolutions among optical sensors. Therefore, developing accurate and robust surface water mapping solutions requires independent validations from multiple datasets to identify potential biases within the imagery and algorithms. However, high-quality validation datasets are expensive to build, and few contain information on water resources. For this purpose, we introduce a globally sampled, high-spatial-resolution dataset labeled using 3 m PlanetScope imagery. Our surface water extent dataset comprises 100 images, each with a size of 1024×1024 pixels, which were sampled using a stratified random sampling strategy covering all 14 biomes. We highlighted urban and rural regions, lakes, and rivers, including braided rivers and coastal regions. We evaluated two surface water extent mapping methods using our dataset – Dynamic World, based on Sentinel-2, and the NASA IMPACT model, based on Sentinel-1. Dynamic World achieved a mean intersection over union (IoU) of 72.16 % and F1 score of 79.70 %, while the NASA IMPACT model had a mean IoU of 57.61 % and F1 score of 65.79 %. Performance varied substantially across biomes, highlighting the importance of evaluating models on diverse landscapes to assess their generalizability and robustness. Our dataset can be used to analyze satellite products and methods, providing insights into their advantages and drawbacks. Our dataset offers a unique tool for analyzing satellite products, aiding the development of more accurate and robust surface water monitoring solutions. The dataset can be accessed via https://doi.org/10.25739/03nt-4f29.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

Integrating field observations and process-based modeling to predict watershed water quality under environmental perturbations

Watersheds play a critical role in supplying water resources needed for human use and ecosystem health. Understanding and predicting how, when, and where changes in the quantity and quality of water resources occur under different environmental stresses including extreme events is crucial for sustainable management of water resources under a changing environment. However, few studies have attempted to quantify or identify the factors and process interactions controlling the impact of extreme events across water-shed systems. Only few large-scale studies include coordinated monitoring and modeling efforts, which limits our ability to assess the large-scale impact of extreme events on water supply and quality. Methods are lacking to propagate uncertainty in process understanding through an integrated hydro-biogeochemical model framework and evaluate its importance, thus failing to take full advantage of the information potentially available through transformative advances in characterization technologies from high-resolution mass spectrometry to airborne and satellite-based remote sensing. There are consequent risks to our nations water security and to human and ecosystem health that may become exacerbated with the increasing frequency of extreme events that is projected for the coming decades. This paper reviews the current status of watershed science for both water quantity and quality and identifies critical gaps in our current knowledge and modeling capability in addressing the emergent needs in predicting watershed hydrologic and biogeochemical responses (i.e., water quantity and quality) under natural and anthropogenic perturbations. We highlight the need to (1) understand how environmental perturbations including extreme events like floods and droughts propagate through watershed systems and assess their short- and long-term impacts on watershed biogeochemistry, water quality and their recovery pathways; (2) develop and improve a watershed water quality model that reflects the state of scientific understanding gained from observations; and (3) construct a data-model fusion system for watershed characterization, process identification, and mechanistic model parameterization. A large base of modeling, monitoring and data capabilities have been built by various federal government agencies given the relevance of water to their critical missions. An emerging need is to build an integrated national capability for watershed water availability and quality that can address water-related missions across multiple federal agencies.

13 HYDRO ENERGY↗

OpenET: Filling a Critical Data Gap in Water Management for the Western United States

The lack of consistent, accurate information on evapotranspiration (ET) and consumptive use of water by irrigated agriculture is one of the most important data gaps for water managers in the western United States (U.S.) and other arid agricultural regions globally. The ability to easily access information on ET is central to improving water budgets across the West, advancing the use of data-driven irrigation management strategies, and expanding incentive-driven conservation programs. Recent advances in remote sensing of ET have led to the development of multiple approaches for field-scale ET mapping that have been used for local and regional water resource management applications by U.S. state and federal agencies. The OpenET project is a community-driven effort that is building upon these advances to develop an operational system for generating and distributing ET data at a field scale using an ensemble of six well-established satellite-based approaches for mapping ET. Key objectives of OpenET include: Increasing access to remotely sensed ET data through a web-based data explorer and data services; supporting the use of ET data for a range of water resource management applications; and development of use cases and training resources for agricultural producers and water resource managers. Here we describe the OpenET framework, including the models used in the ensemble, the satellite, meteorological, and ancillary data inputs to the system, and the OpenET data visualization and access tools. We also summarize an extensive intercomparison and accuracy assessment conducted using ground measurements of ET from 139 flux tower sites instrumented with open path eddy covariance systems. Results calculated for 24 cropland sites from Phase I of the intercomparison and accuracy assessment demonstrate strong agreement between the satellite-driven ET models and the flux tower ET data. For the six models that have been evaluated to date (ALEXI/DisALEXI, eeMETRIC, geeSEBAL, PT-JPL, SIMS, and SSEBop) and the ensemble mean, the weighted average mean absolute error (MAE) values across all sites range from 13.6 to 21.6 mm/month at a monthly timestep, and 0.74 to 1.07 mm/day at a daily timestep. At seasonal time scales, for all but one of the models the weighted mean total ET is within ±8% of both the ensemble mean and the weighted mean total ET calculated from the flux tower data. Overall, the ensemble mean performs as well as any individual model across nearly all accuracy statistics for croplands, though some individual models may perform better for specific sites and regions. We conclude with three brief use cases to illustrate current applications and benefits of increased access to ET data, and discuss key lessons learned from the development of OpenET.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

Space and Time Dynamics of Transpiration in the East River Watershed: Biotic and Abiotic Controls

Alpine forests have important impacts on water resources by affecting how much of the precipitation that falls on a watershed is routed to streamflow or returned to the atmosphere as transpiration – so-called “green water”. In many of the high-altitude watersheds that supply critical water resources to the western US, it remains a challenge to predict how much water forests will utilize limiting the ability to predict both short and long term information on downstream water resources. The uncertainty emerges because transpiration varies between tree species, across landscapes and over time in ways that cannot readily be predicted from physically-based models for evaporation. In this project, we utilized a technique called sap flux to measure the rate of water use for three common species of fir, spruce and aspen distributed across a hillslope in the East River Watershed from 2019-2021. We also made ~weekly measurements of the concentration of stable isotopic tracers in transpiration to understand not only how much water was being used but whether it originated from summer rain or snowmelt. Firstly, our results show that the species tend to use similar amounts of total water but they achieve this similar cumulative water flux both by using water at different times of the year and by using different water sources. This shows the importance of including species-level information into models used to make seasonal streamflow predictions. Secondly, our results show that trees lower on the hillslope use older waters all through the summer whereas trees higher on the hillslope rely more heavily on recent summer rain. This means trees lower on the hillslope are less sensitive to year-to-year changes in summer climate. Lastly, we found that sites with dense forest stands displayed the largest amounts of year-to-year changes in transpiration and thus these high localized spots in the watershed are the primary drivers of changes in “green water” use. The results provide an unprecedented spatial and temporal picture of forest water use that confirms a number of fundamental hypotheses on hillslope ecohydrology that had not previously been tested against observations. Predictions of streamflow that will benefit from this work are highly valuable for agriculture management, flood control and ecological restoration efforts.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

Quantifying the City-Scale Impacts of Impervious Surfaces on Groundwater Recharge Potential: An Urban Application of WRF–Hydro

Decades of urbanization have created sprawling, complex, and vulnerable cities, half of which are located in water-scarce areas. With the looming effects of climate change, including increasing droughts and water shortages, there is an urgent need to better understand how urbanization impacts the water cycle at city scale. Impervious surfaces disrupt the natural flow of water, affecting groundwater recharge in water-scarce cities, such as Los Angeles, looking to harness local water resources. In the face of growing water demand, informing on opportunities to maximize potential groundwater recharge can help increase cities’ resilience. WRF–Hydro, a physics-based hydrological modeling system, capable of resolving atmospheric, land surface, and hydrological processes at city scale, is adapted to represent urban impervious surfaces. The modified model is used to assess the hydrological implications of historical urbanization. Pre- and post-urban scenarios are used to quantify the impacts of impervious surfaces on the local water budget. Our results show that urbanization in LA has vastly decreased the potential for groundwater recharge, with up to half of the water inflow being redirected from infiltration in highly urbanized watersheds, while doubling surface runoff’s share of the city’s water budget, from ~15% to 30%. This study not only sheds light on the role of imperviousness on groundwater recharge in water-scarce cities, but also offers a robust and transferable tool for the management of urban land and water resources.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

Evaluating 3 decades of precipitation in the Upper Colorado River basin from a high-resolution regional climate model

Abstract. Convection-permitting regional climate models (RCMs) have recently become tractable for applications at multi-decadal timescales. These types of models have tremendous utility for water resource studies, but better characterization of precipitation biases is needed, particularly for water-resource-critical mountain regions, where precipitation is highly variable in space, observations are sparse, and the societal water need is great. This study examines 34 years (1987–2020) of RCM precipitation from the Weather Research and Forecasting model (WRF; v3.8.1), using the Climate Forecast System Reanalysis (CFS; CFSv2) initial and lateral boundary conditions and a 1 km × 1 km innermost grid spacing. The RCM is centered over the Upper Colorado River basin, with a focus on the high-elevation, 750 km2 East River watershed (ERW), where a variety of high-impact scientific activities are currently ongoing. Precipitation is compared against point observations (Natural Resources Conservation Service Snow Telemetry or SNOTEL), gridded climate datasets (Newman, Livneh, and PRISM), and Bayesian reconstructions of watershed mean precipitation conditioned on streamflow and high-resolution snow remote-sensing products. We find that the cool-season precipitation percent error between WRF and 23 SNOTEL gauges has a low overall bias (x^ = 0.25 %, s = 13.63 %) and that WRF has a higher percent error during the warm season (x^ = 10.37 %, s = 12.79 %). Warm-season bias manifests as a high number of low-precipitation days, though the low-resolution or SNOTEL gauges limit some of the conclusions that can be drawn. Regional comparisons between WRF precipitation accumulation and three different gridded datasets show differences on the order of ± 20 %, particularly at the highest elevations and in keeping with findings from other studies. We find that WRF agrees slightly better with the Bayesian reconstruction of precipitation in the ERW compared to the gridded precipitation datasets, particularly when changing SNOTEL densities are taken into account. The conclusions are that the RCM reasonably captures orographic precipitation in this region and demonstrates that leveraging additional hydrologic information (streamflow and snow remote-sensing data) improves the ability to characterize biases in RCM precipitation fields. Error characteristics reported in this study are essential for leveraging the RCM model outputs for studies of past and future climates and water resource applications. The methods developed in this study can be applied to other watersheds and model configurations. Hourly 1 km × 1 km precipitation and other meteorological outputs from this dataset are publicly available and suitable for a wide variety of applications.

Geology↗

National Energy Water Treatment & Speciation (NEWTS): A Water & Critical Mineral Database and Dashboard

The scarcity of water resources, the need for beneficial water reuse, and the challenges of wastewater treatment are becoming increasingly pressing in economic, social, and environmental domains. Addressing these concerns requires effective treatment strategies to manage wastewater streams and tackle environmental and economic issues. Furthermore, the recovery of critical minerals from the waste streams associated with energy production holds the promise of offsetting treatment costs and securing local sources of valuable minerals. However, relevant data on these waste streams are dispersed and challenging to locate. The process of ingesting such data into modeling software often involves multiple steps, requiring data restructuring to meet software-input requirements. The non-standardized reporting of water data makes data aggregation and reformatting a time-consuming process. Additionally, essential attributes necessary for modeling water treatment and mineral scale formation are frequently missing. Moreover, data gaps vary depending on the region of interest. Consequently, there is a pressing need for high-quality energy-water composition data that can be easily imported into water chemistry modeling software. To address this need, the National Energy Technology Laboratory has created the National Energy Water Treatment and Speciation (NEWTS) Database and Dashboard—a free online tool catering to community leaders and water researchers. NEWTS facilitates a comprehensive understanding of the composition of energy-related wastewater streams in the United States. The datasets provide detailed concentrations and speciation of major and minor aqueous compounds in energy-related wastewater streams, including power plant leachate, acid mine drainage, brackish water, and oil and gas produced water across the United States. Many of the aqueous species are critical minerals (Li, REEs) in high demand to modernize the world’s energy infrastructure. Many of the datasets also contain volumetric flow-rates needed to model the treatment and reuse scenarios in advanced aqueous chemistry software programs. The NEWTS Database and Dashboard offer public access to hitherto challenging-to-access datasets, presented in a standardized format that is tailored for easy input into aqueous chemistry modeling software. By performing the work needed to transform dispersed, disparate data sources into unified, model-ready datasets, NEWTS serves as an essential resource in advancing water treatment research and sustainable water resource management.

produced water management↗

Techno-economic analysis of converting oil & gas produced water into valuable resources

Managing produced water from oil and gas wells constitutes a significant portion of the costs of operating a well. Here, in this work, we have designed two different centralized water treatment facilities capable of managing produced water from oil and gas wells in Texas and Louisiana, both of which convert the produced water into the following valuable resources: ten-pound brine and fresh water. The two main designs each use commercially available technology with varying levels of establishment in treating produced water. Both treatment processes remove oil and grease and suspended solids, reduce the divalent ion concentrations, and concentrate the brines to a near-saturation state. The baseline design uses chemical precipitation to remove the divalent ions to meet the reuse specifications, whereas the advanced design uses nanofiltration (NF) membranes to separate divalent ions and uses reverse osmosis (RO) membranes to partially concentrate the brine. Both models use mechanical vapor recompression to concentrate the brine up to NaCl saturation. The baseline process is shown to be cost-effective for low-hardness brines. In the case of high hardness, the chemical precipitation step is cost-prohibitive. We find that NF membranes are a promising alternative to chemical precipitation as a means of separating monovalent and divalent ions.

29 ENERGY PLANNING, POLICY, AND ECONOMY↗

SIMPLE-G: A multiscale framework for integration of economic and biophysical determinants of sustainability

We introduce SIMPLE-G, a Simplified International Model of agricultural Prices, Land use, and the Environment- Gridded version, which is a novel tool for evaluating sustainability policies in a global context while factoring in local heterogeneity in land and water resources and natural ecosystem services. This multi-scale model can provide boundary conditions for local decision makers, as well as capturing feedback from local policies to national and global scales. Additionally, to illustrate its value in environmental analysis, we provide two applications of the model. First, we quantify the local stresses on land and water resources due to global changes in population, income, and productivity. Second, we quantify the global impacts of local policy responses and adaptations to water scarcity.

42 ENGINEERING↗

Hydropower Role in a Power Grid with a High Proportion of Variable Renewables

The importance of hydropower increases as the power grid evolves with the higher variable renewable contribution. As conventional thermal power plants are retired, the importance of hydropower contribution increases to balance the variability of solar and wind generation. However, reservoir water resources are constrained by multiple constraints, and variability of water inflow to the reservoirs creates limitations to dam water releases for power grid needs. Coordination of multiple tools, including water resources modeling, ecological modeling, and technical and economic power grid modeling, informs dam water releases. Better representation of ecological constraints and other water use details in the suit of power grid models are required to identify the hydropower flexibility to provide multiple power grid services. Impacts of water planning and hydropower operation changes to a power grid are better understood by production cost model simulations with technical and economic data, including unserved energy, reserve failures, transmission congestion to serve load, and local marginal price increases. Similarly, PCM simulation of current and future projected power grid information, including LMP, and carbon emission rates, informs short-term water release plans and long-term investments for power plant upgrades for technical and ecological needs. Hydropower operations of several case studies are simulated to understand operation patterns, revenue, water release decisions in multiple time scales (month, day, minutes), hydropower contracts scheduling, and water variability impacts.

environmental↗

Stochastic Simulation of Daily Suspended Sediment Concentration Using Multivariate Copulas

Estimation of daily suspended sediment concentration (SSC) is required for water resources and environment management. In this paper, a copula-based stochastic method was proposed for daily SSC simulation. Here, the multivariate copula function, constructed based on a bivariate copula and two bivariate conditional probability distributions, was used to model the temporal and cross dependence structures in daily SSCs. Then, the daily SSCs were generated by sampling from the multivariate conditional distribution. As a result, synthetic long-term SSCs data beyond the limited observation period can be provided for water resources managers, which plays a critical role in accurately estimating frequency and magnitude of extreme SSCs events. The proposed method was under rigorous examination by applying to a case study at Pingshan station in the Jinsha River Basin, China. Results showed that the generated daily SSC sequences not only had a high degree of accuracy in preserving the statistical characteristics of the daily SSC observations, but also captured both the temporal correlation and the cross-correlation between the daily streamflow and daily SSC. Specifically, the average daily relative error values corresponding to mean, standard deviation, skewness, lag-1 temporal correlation, and cross correlation were 0.87%, 4.24%, 7.52%, 0.51% and 2.02%, respectively. The multivariate copula framework proposed here can accurately and efficiently generate long-term daily SSC data for water resources management such as frequency analysis and risk assessment of extreme SSC events.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

Accelerating Discovery to Deployment: Argonne's Materials Engineering Research Facility (MERF) and Its Role in Scaling Materials Technologies for Water and Resource Solutions

The U.S. Department of Energy (DOE) national laboratories represent a unique class of government‐owned, contractor‐operated research institutions dedicated to conducting research and development (R&D) related activities that address national priorities, supporting and advancing the DOE mission. They play a vital role in sustaining U.S. innovation capacity, stewarding the nation's technical base, and nurturing science and technologies. In this perspective, we highlight the processing science and scaleup capabilities of the Materials Engineering Research Facility (MERF) at DOE's Argonne National Laboratory to demonstrate how DOE National Laboratories bridge fundamental science and applied technology development to accelerate deployment. Case studies are presented on selective membranes for critical mineral recovery, sensors for per‐ and polyfluoroalkyl substances (PFAS) detection, surface functionalization via atomic layer deposition (ALD) and sequential infiltration synthesis (SIS), and lithium recovery from battery recycling waste streams using a novel electrodialysis process. These examples underscore MERF's role in translating innovative technologies into practical solutions for renewable water and critical resource recovery, which also leverage Argonne's analytical and computational capabilities. This perspective also outlines mechanisms for collaborating with the DOE national laboratories to strengthen partnerships across government, the national laboratories, academia, and industry.

36 MATERIALS SCIENCE↗

Evaluating How Climate Adaptation Measures Affect the Interconnected Water‐Energy Resource Systems of the Western United States

Abstract The Western US faces increasing water stress from the impacts of climate change, making it difficult to meet water demands for the region's cities, agriculture, and hydropower generators. Existing literature suggests that climate adaptation measures such as water conservation, cropland retirement, wastewater recycling, and managed aquifer recharge can alleviate some of these challenges. Few analyses, however, compare the relative efficacy and system‐wide effects of these adaptations under different climate projections across the entire Western United States. Here we use a Western US‐wide water systems model to evaluate, by sector and sub‐region, how the widespread implementation of these adaptive measures impacts water demands, water deliveries, and electricity use related to the water system for three different climate projections. We find that wastewater recycling has greater potential to lower unmet indoor water demands than urban indoor water conservation measures. However, when implemented at scale, indoor water conservation reduces electricity use by an average of 683 Terawatt hours while wastewater recycling increases energy use by an average of 721 Terawatt hours, cumulatively from 2020 to 2070. Cropland retirement and aquifer recharge adaptations increase the ability to meet agricultural water demand, increase groundwater storage, and reduce summertime electricity use. While most of these findings are consistent across different climate projections, the benefits of aquifer recharge are sensitive to spatial variation of precipitation. Given the limitations and tradeoffs of each individually, the results suggest that a portfolio of adaptation measures will be needed for a climate‐resilient water and energy future in the Western US. Plain Language Summary The Western US faces increased water stress from the impacts of climate change, making it difficult to meet demands for cities, agriculture, and hydropower facilities. Adaptation measures like water conservation, retiring agricultural lands, recycling wastewater, and storing water underground can address these challenges. However, there is little modeling to understand the impact of these adaptations if they were implemented across the entire Western US while also considering climate change. We use a Western US‐wide water systems model to evaluate how implementing adaptation measures impacts groundwater levels, the ability to meet water demands, and electricity use related to water in three different possible climate futures. We find that recycling wastewater to drinking water standards does a better job of meeting urban water demands than water conservation measures. However, indoor water conservation reduces energy use for water while recycling wastewater increases energy use for water. Retiring agricultural lands and storing water underground both increase the ability to meet agricultural water demands, increase underground water storage, and reduce summertime energy use. No adaptation measures provides benefits across every metric we track. Therefore, multiple adaptation measures will likely be needed to achieve a climate‐resilient future for energy and water in the Western US. Key Points Water‐related climate change adaptations have different benefits and tradeoffs for interconnected water‐energy systems in the Western U.S. Wastewater recycling most increases urban water coverage, but has a significant tradeoff in the form of greater electricity use Cropland retirement and aquifer recharge benefit water and electricity systems most in the summer when those systems are most stressed

Singhal, A↗

Opportunities and Challenges for Industrial Water Treatment and Reuse

As the impact of water scarcity in the United States (U.S.) continues to grow through the 21st century, it is critical to develop strategies to reduce water use and improve the security of water resources. One such strategy is to diversify the sources from which water is supplied. Industrial withdrawals represent the fourth largest category of U.S. water use, the majority of which is sourced from fresh surface and groundwater. In this study, we critically explore the potential of industrial wastewater to serve as an alternative water resource through direct treatment and reuse. We begin by reviewing the state of the art of water use, treatment, and reuse across six representative industries: food and beverages, primary metals, pulp and paper, petroleum refining, chemicals, and data centers and campuses, highlighting key challenges and opportunities toward the expansion of reuse. We then employ a technoeconomic assessment of water treatment processes to analyze the capital investment, operating and maintenance costs, levelized cost of water, and electricity consumption of three specific industrial plants as case studies to better understand where research can promote impactful innovation. Finally, drawing together the results of our literature review and technoeconomic analyses, we provide a broad outlook on the future of industrial water reuse and discuss strategies for its expansion.

29 ENERGY PLANNING, POLICY, AND ECONOMY↗

Impact of climate change on adaptive management decisions in the face of water scarcity

Reoccurring drought through the early 2000s has caused a serious water scarcity issue in the Colorado River Basin. Previous modeling studies have focused on the impact of climate change without considering the adaptive behaviors of farmers and under-utilized Indian water rights. Here, we use a coupled agent-based water resource model (ABM) to investigate how the adaptive decisions of farmers can affect water resource management under both climate change impacts and fully utilized Indian water right conditions. We used five General Circulation Model projections with RCP8.5 scenarios for the study. The results of farm-level decision-making showed different responses in irrigated areas that were changing due to climate change impact. While winter precipitation changes might partially explain the behavior changes, no specific pattern could be concluded based on their location. Also, farmers’ responses about annual water diversion showed more significant inter-year variation compared to irrigated areas. Basin-level metrics showed that climate change impacts will generally worsen water scarcity issues as measured in Navajo Reservoir storage, flow to Lake Powell, and instream flow requirement. But these basin-level water scarcity metrics cannot reflect individual farm-level impacts under climate change, which is why modeling the bottom-up management actions is necessary. When the under-utilized Indian water rights are fully used, it is more likely to trigger the shortage sharing agreement due to the higher tribal water depletion. Evaluation of model uncertainty and a more realistic setup for adaptive actions under drought contingency plans are suggested for future research.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

Sequim Campus Master Plan

Based in Richland, Washington, Pacific Northwest National Laboratory (PNNL) is one of ten U.S. Department of Energy (DOE) Office of Science (SC) national laboratories. PNNL is DOE’s premier chemistry, earth sciences, and data analytics laboratory, delivering vital mission impacts in energy resiliency and national security. PNNL has 19 core capabilities, each a powerful combination of world-class staff, state-of-the- art equipment, and mission-ready facilities. These capabilities represent a collective set of skills and a body of world-leading scientific and engineering work that provides exceptional value and mission delivery to DOE, the National Nuclear Security Administration (NNSA), the U.S. Department of Homeland Security (DHS), and other federal agencies and industry through strategic partnership projects on a not-to-interfere basis. Currently operated by Battelle Memorial Institute, PNNL occupies more than 2.3 million gross square feet (GSF) of buildings and employs approximately 4,700 staff members. PNNL has implemented a rolling 10-year campus strategy, initiated in fiscal year 2013, designed to deliver the foundation for the multidisciplinary science and engineering expertise, equipment, instrumentation, facilities, and infrastructure required to continue providing exceptional value and mission delivery. This strategy is incorporated into PNNL’s annual Laboratory Plan, which serves as DOE-SC’s equivalent of the Five- Year Site Plan required by DOE Order 430.1C Chg. 1, Real Property Asset Management. The PNNL Sequim Campus is located in Clallam County, just outside of Sequim, Washington. PNNL Sequim builds upon a rich history of research related to marine and coastal resources, environmental chemistry, water resources modeling, ecotoxicology, biotechnology, and national security. Facilities at the PNNL Sequim Campus were designed to take advantage of two unique locational assets: the pristine coastal ocean water in Sequim Bay and the region’s exceptionally clean air. Research facilities on the waterfront are supplied with up to 200 gallons per minute (gpm) of seawater and/or groundwater that enables research on aquatic systems ranging from fully seawater to fresh water, with an onsite water treatment system that removes all biological and hazardous chemical residues prior to discharge. Multiple large seawater tanks outside the waterfront laboratories, along with a boat ramp, pier, and floating dock, enable lab-to-field research. The uplands facility takes advantage of the amazing air quality and is built and operated to enable ultratrace chemical/radiological analytical chemistry. This combination of capabilities is not available at any other marine laboratory in the nation.

37 INORGANIC, ORGANIC, PHYSICAL, AND ANALYTICAL CH↗