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At least 73 records · Page 4

Assessment of the Vulnerability of Water Resources to Seasonal Fires Across the Northern Sub-Saharan African Region

The northern sub-Saharan African (NSSA) region, extending from the southern fringes of the Sahara to the Equator, and stretching west to east from the Atlantic to the Indian ocean coasts, plays a prominent role in the distribution of Saharan dust and other airborne matter around the region and to other parts of the world, the genesis of global atmospheric circulation, and the birth of such major (and often catastrophic) events as hurricanes. Therefore, this NSSA region represents a critical variable in the global climate change equation. Recent satellite-based studies have revealed that the NSSA region has one of the highest biomass-burning rates per unit land area among all regions of the world. Because of the high concentration and frequency of fires in this region, with the associated abundance of heat release and gaseous and particulate smoke emissions, biomass-burning activity is believed to be a major driver of the regional carbon, energy, and water cycles. We acknowledge that the rainy season in the NSSA region is from April to September while biomass burning occurs mainly during the dry season (October to March). Nevertheless, these two phenomena are indirectly coupled to each other through a chain of complex processes and conditions, including land-cover and surface-albedo changes, the carbon cycle, evapotranspiration, drought, desertification, surface water runoff, ground water recharge, and variability in atmospheric composition, heating rates, and circulation. In this presentation, we will examine the theoretical linkages between these processes, discuss the preliminary results based on satellite data analysis, and provide an overview of plans for more integrated research to be conducted over the next few years.

Ichoku, Charles M.

Bridgeport Urban Development: Leveraging NASA Earth Observations and Sociodemographic Data to Assess Urban Heat Vulnerability and Inform Cool Corridors in Bridgeport, Connecticut

Urban environments face hotter temperatures than suburban and rural areas due to higher concentrations of impervious surfaces, heat-retaining buildings, and lack of green space. Bridgeport, Connecticut, which was formerly a national manufacturing hub, is now the densest and most populous city in the state. Bridgeport experiences hotter temperatures, exposing its residents to more extreme temperatures than the surrounding affluent suburbs. Extreme heat affects the health of those exposed to it and intensifies energy demands. Understanding temperature differences is the first step in effectively directing mitigation efforts. Our partner, Groundwork Bridgeport, along with the Yale Urban Design Workshop, are planning a “cool corridors” project, implementing cooling infrastructure to combat urban heat. We used Landsat 8 Thermal Infrared Sensor and Landsat 9 Thermal Infrared Sensor-2 data to conduct a Land Surface Temperature analysis in Google Earth Engine for the county of Fairfield. A Principal Component Analysis was performed to identify indicators of social vulnerability in Bridgeport. We used the SOlar and LongWave Environmental Irradiance Geometry model to identify felt heat on the block level to inform where the partner should locate their cooling interventions to ensure they are most effective and equitable. We focused on the East Side of Bridgeport, which we found was 10 degrees hotter than other areas of Bridgeport and the neighboring town of Fairfield. We integrated our findings using Earth observations and additional sociodemographic and climate data into final communication products for our partners which will facilitate their selection of candidate locations for their Cool Corridors project.

Silas Kirsch

V-INT: Automated Vulnerability Intelligence and Risk Assessment

The project team, including the University of Arkansas (UA) as the lead, the University of Arkansas at Little Rock (UALR), Network Perception (NP), and Bastazo, has successfully researched, developed, and demonstrated the V-INT toolset, and also integrated it into the commercial products of NP (i.e., NP-View) and Bastazo (i.e., Spartan). The end product is a cybersecurity software tool for energy utilities that can automatically assess the risks of software vulnerabilities in an organization’s assets considering the organization’s firewall policies. It allows security operators to identify the small portion of vulnerabilities that poses true threats to their system (i.e., those that are not protected by firewall policies) and prioritize the mitigation of these vulnerabilities to minimize risks. It also allows security operators to identify the vulnerability-induced attack paths under their organization’s firewall policy, providing effective decision supports for mitigating potential attacks.

97 MATHEMATICS AND COMPUTING

AgMIP's Transdisciplinary Agricultural Systems Approach to Regional Integrated Assessment of Climate Impacts, Vulnerability, and Adaptation

This chapter describes methods developed by the Agricultural Model Intercomparison and Improvement Project (AgMIP) to implement a transdisciplinary, systems-based approach for regional-scale (local to national) integrated assessment of agricultural systems under future climate, biophysical, and socio-economic conditions. These methods were used by the AgMIP regional research teams in Sub-Saharan Africa and South Asia to implement the analyses reported in their respective chapters of this book. Additional technical details are provided in Appendix 1.The principal goal that motivates AgMIP's regional integrated assessment (RIA) methodology is to provide scientifically rigorous information needed to support improved decision-making by various stakeholders, ranging from local to national and international non-governmental and governmental organizations.

agriculture

Western Tennessee Water Resources: Leveraging High Resolution Remotely Sensed Data to Assess Water Availability and Vulnerability in the Memphis Aquifer Area in West Tennessee

The West TN portion of the Memphis aquifer, located within the Hatchie-Obion watershed is experiencing increased urban development, especially with the construction of "Blue Oval City", a battery manufacturing site for Ford's new electric trucks. Hayfood and Fayette counties fall within the sensitive recharge zone of the aquifer, and also contain the manufacturing megasite, making this an area of interest to highlight the consequences of increased urbanization to the aquifer. To understand the aquifers health, we averaged aquifer recharge factors seasonally to assess relationships from 2019-2022. Seasonal relationships were considered to highlight the hydrological factors that contribute to recharge, such as water balance, runoff, and evaporative stress that flux season to season (i.e. less precipitation in summer).

Katera Lee

Assessing Energy Infrastructure Devices for Vulnerabilities

Industrial control systems prove to be vital to the health and security of the nation in our critical infrastructure. Critical infrastructure includes the most foundational systems to support modern civilization which includes water and wastewater systems, communications, and the electricity we use to name a few sectors. However, these devices' overall composition remains largely unknown and are untested from a cyber security perspective. As part of the Cyber Testing for Resilient Industrial Control Systems (CyTRICS) program, I analyzed one such energy infrastructure device to better understand how it functions, what hardware and software components are present within it, and assess it for security vulnerabilities. To achieve this, I reverse engineered binary files using Ghidra to understand system functionality and learned more about how to collaborate with other researchers on a shared Ghidra project. I learned more about how web sockets function and how to interact with them through Python to test if they are secure or not. This work led me to assess possible vulnerabilities in this device and provide a better understanding of its composition and function, which are essential to INL's mission of securing our nation's energy infrastructure.

99 - GENERAL AND MISCELLANEOUS

As assessment of power system vulnerability to release of carbon fibers during commercial aviation accidents

The vulnerability of a power distribution system in Bedford and Lexington, Massachusetts to power outages as a result of exposure to carbon fibers released in a commercial aviation accident in 1993 was examined. Possible crash scenarios at Logan Airport based on current operational data and estimated carbon fiber usage levels were used to predict exposure levels and occurrence probabilities. The analysis predicts a mean time between carbon fiber induced power outages of 2300 years with an expected annual consequence of 0.7 persons losing power. In comparison to historical outage data for the system, this represents a 0.007% increase in outage rate and 0.07% increase in consequence.

Larocque, G. R.

Western Tennessee Water Resources: Leveraging High Resolution Remotely Sensed Data to Assess Water Availability and Vulnerability in the Memphis Aquifer Area in West Tennessee

The Memphis Aquifer (MA) is located in the Mississippi Embayment that extends 250,000 square kilometers across eight states. Fayette and Haywood counties in West Tennessee are situated within the recharge zone of the MA and include the forthcoming Ford “mega campus” named Blue Oval City (BOC), which will consist of a vehicle-production facility and battery assembly division. Increased water demand and land cover change resulting from urban development, such as BOC in the MA’s narrow recharge zone, threaten the aquifer’s groundwater storage and recharge rate. Groundwater recharge factors that influence the narrow recharge zone of the MA include precipitation, evapotranspiration, runoff, and land cover type. In partnership with Protect Our Aquifer (POA) and the Center for Applied Earth Science and Engineering Research (CAESAR) at the University of Memphis, the team used data from the ECOsystem Spaceborne Thermal Radiometer Experiment on Space Station (ECOSTRESS), Integrated Multi-Satellite Retrievals for Global Precipitation Measurement (GPM IMERG), and Landsat 8 Operational Land Imager (OLI) and Thermal Infrared Sensor (TIRS). The team also used ancillary data from the National Land Cover Database (NLCD) and the North American Land Data Assimilation System (NLDAS) Noah Land Surface Model. These results identified “thriving” recharge locations, which are areas most conducive to aquifer recharge in Fayette County. The partners may use the results to prioritize specific areas in need of protection before they become susceptible to the effects of urbanization and industrialization.

precipitation

Leveraging High Resolution Remotely Sensed Evapotranspiration Data to Assess Water Availability and Vulnerability in the Memphis Aquifer Area in West Tennessee

The Memphis aquifer is an indispensable source of water for municipal, agricultural, and industrial use across west Tennessee. The aquifer's water is thousands of years old and in pristine condition due to the natural geological filtering by the aquifer’s confining clay layers. To sustain the aquifer’s water supply, recharge must happen at a rate efficient enough to keep up with pumping from the aquifer. In partnership with Protect Our Aquifer and the University of Memphis Center for Applied Earth Science and Engineering Research, this project examined multiple factors to discover thriving areas of recharge in west Tennessee. The team used Integrated Multi-satellite Retrievals for GPM (IMERG) precipitation data, ECOsystem Spaceborne Thermal Radiometer on Space Station (ECOSTRESS) evapotranspiration data, Landsat 8 and National Land Cover Database (NLCD) to track landcover change, and the North American Land Data Assimilation System (NLDAS) Noah land surface model to estimate monthly runoff. These factors were averaged seasonally from 2019 to 2022 to understand seasonal relationships within the study area. Precipitation and evapotranspiration data were used to create water balance maps and with the evaporative stress index (ESI), landcover, and runoff maps, the team pinpointed locations that are most conducive to recharge. The team determined that areas where the water balance is low, ESI is high, and where there is sufficient pervious landcover are locations where recharge happens most effectively. Identification of effective recharge locations may be used by the partners to prioritize areas in need of protection before they become impacted by industrialization and urbanization.

Lauren Webster

High-resolution mountain topography can inform global snow vulnerability estimates

Snow is changing globally. Computationally intensive snow reanalysis products and downscaled climate model projections allow for the estimation of historical and projected changes in snow over ∼4–10 km resolutions, but these resolutions are coarse relative to the scales needed for water supply and flood planning. Fine-scale digital elevation models (DEMs) are widely available but are underutilized to make first-order assessments of snow vulnerability. Here, we leverage DEMs at a 7.5 arc s (∼250 m) resolution, combining these with historical freezing level height estimates from ERA-5 to derive estimates of changes in the snow-receiving area (SRA) and its variability across global mountain ranges. Results show estimated SRA declines in 29% (1.9 million km2) of the global mountain area from 1982–2020; 66% of the mountainous areas had no change over the historical period. At +1.5 °C of warming relative to the pre-industrial control, global mountain SRA would decline by 9.5% (1.0 million km2) relative to recent conditions. This loss would be approximately doubled with +2 °C of warming. In a +4 °C warming scenario, an additional 34% (3.6 million km2) of SRA would be lost beyond the +2 °C case. Across individual mountain ranges, SRA losses can occur nonlinearly with warming, with some locations that have historically had relatively minor SRA losses at risk of substantially larger losses in warmer climates. Analysis using coarser-resolution DEMs can underestimate or overestimate SRA and its rate of loss, with the largest impacts in relatively warm, low-elevation mountain ranges. Results of this work provide estimates of projected loss in SRA at policy-relevant warming levels; inform the resolutions needed for process-based snow modeling; identify snow vulnerability hotspots; and provide a new integrated approach to snow vulnerability assessment that is achievable at global scales and highlights potential nonlinearities from recent trends to a variety of future warming scenarios.

climate, mountains