Cross-platform validation and analysis environment for particle physics
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To facilitate the integration of buildings to the power grid, battery-equivalent models have been proposed to characterize and quantify aggregate flexibility from building loads. An analytical method has been proposed to construct such a flexibility model for thermostatically controlled loads. Since this analytical method is derived from a simplified representation of building thermal dynamics, it is necessary to evaluate the resulting flexibility model in a more realistic context. This paper focuses on the validation of this analytical method for estimating aggregate flexibility from residential air conditioning (ACs) systems. A high-fidelity model is first developed to mimic thermal behaviors of a residential AC system through a co-simulation between Modelica and EnergyPlus. A population of virtual residential AC systems is then generated by randomizing parameters of the high-fidelity model. Finally, an aggregate flexibility model is constructed for the residential AC population using the analytical method and validated using results from simulation of the high-fidelity model. It is found that the flexibility estimated using the analytical method is with reasonable accuracy, but can be improved by explicitly incorporating heat gains into the method.
Heat recovery from enhanced geothermal systems (EGS) is a complex process involving heat transport in both fracture networks and rock formations. A comprehensive understanding of and the ability to model the underlying heat transport mechanisms is important for the success of EGS but remains challenging in practice due to the generally insufficient characterization of EGS reservoirs. In the present study, we analyze an extensively monitored intermediate-scale EGS field experiment performed in a well-characterized testbed. The high-resolution, high-quality measurements from the field experiment enable the development of a high-fidelity model incorporating a well-constrained fracture network. Based on the field experiment, we investigate the complex heat transport processes in an EGS-relevant environment and validate the capability of a numerical approach in simulating these inherently coupled heat transport processes. A series of numerical simulations were performed to study the effects of different heat transport mechanisms, including thermal convection with fracture flow, thermal conduction in rock formations, and the Joule-Thomson effect. The agreement of thermal responses between field measurements and simulation results indicates that our numerical approach can appropriately model the heat transport processes pertaining to heat recovery from EGS reservoirs.
Discharge of sodium coolant into containment from a sodium-cooled fast reactor vessel can occur in the event of a pipe leak or break. In this situation, some of the liquid sodium droplets discharged from the coolant system will react with oxygen in the air before reaching the containment. This phase of the event is normally termed the sodium spray fire phase. Unreacted sodium droplets pool on the containment floor where continued reaction with containment atmospheric oxygen occurs. This phase of the event is normally termed the sodium pool fire phase. Both phases of these sodium-oxygen reactions (or fires) are important to model because of the heat addition and aerosol generation that occur. Any fission products trapped in the sodium coolant may also be released during this progression of events, which if released from containment could pose a health risk to workers and the public. The paper describes progress of an international collaborative research in the area of the sodium fire modeling in the sodium-cooled fast reactors between the United States and Japan under the framework of the Civil Nuclear Energy Research and Development Working Group. In this collaboration between Sandia National Laboratories and Japan Atomic Energy Agency, the validation basis for and modeling capabilities of sodium spray and pool fires in MELCOR of Sandia National Laboratories and SPHINCS of Japan Atomic Energy Agency are being enhanced. Here this study documents MELCOR and SPHINCS sodium pool fire model validation exercises against the JAEA’s sodium pool fire experiments, F7-1 and F7-2. The proposed enhancement of the sodium pool fire models in MELCOR through addition of thermal hydraulic and sodium spreading models that enable a better representation of experimental results is also described.
Reductive catalytic fractionation (RCF) is a promising method to extract and depolymerize lignin from biomass, and bench-scale studies have enabled considerable progress in the past decade. RCF experiments are typically conducted in pressurized batch reactors with volumes ranging between 50 and 1000 mL, limiting the throughput of these experiments to one to six reactions per day for an individual researcher. Here, we report a high-throughput RCF (HTP-RCF) method in which batch RCF reactions are conducted in 1 mL wells machined directly into Hastelloy reactor plates. The plate reactors can seal high pressures produced by organic solvents by vertically stacking multiple reactor plates, leading to a compact and modular system capable of performing 240 reactions per experiment. Using this setup, we screened solvent mixtures and catalyst loadings for hydrogen-free RCF using 50 mg poplar and 0.5 mL reaction solvent. The system of 1:1 isopropanol/methanol showed optimal monomer yields and selectivity to 4-propyl substituted monomers, and validation reactions using 75 mL batch reactors produced identical monomer yields. To accommodate the low material loadings, we then developed a workup procedure for parallel filtration, washing, and drying of samples and a 1H nuclear magnetic resonance spectroscopy method to measure the RCF oil yield without performing liquid-liquid extraction. As a demonstration of this experimental pipeline, 50 unique switchgrass samples were screened in RCF reactions in the HTP-RCF system, revealing a wide range of monomer yields (21-36%), S/G ratios (0.41-0.93), and oil yields (40-75%). These results were successfully validated by repeating RCF reactions in 75 mL batch reactors for a subset of samples. We anticipate that this approach can be used to rapidly screen substrates, catalysts, and reaction conditions in high-pressure batch reactions with higher throughput than standard batch reactors.
Thermochemical water-splitting (TCH) based on 2-step thermal redox cycles in metal oxides is a promising approach to generating H 2 , but state-of-the-art (SOTA) CeO 2 has several practical limitations, which has motivated continued materials discovery efforts in this field. Here, in this study, we improve upon a SOTA defect graph neural network (dGNN) surrogate model's oxygen vacancy predictions and combine them with materials project phase diagrams to down-select and discover structurally diverse, experimentally known metal oxides whose TCH performance was previously unknown. Amongst twelve candidates selected based on our high-throughput screening and down-selection criteria, we achieved ∼80% accuracy in identifying materials with stable redox cycling and hydrogen production in stagnation flow reactor water-splitting experiments. Closer to 100% accuracy can be achieved if higher-accuracy, hybrid DFT-predicted vacancy formation energies were computed and used in lieu of the most uncertain dGNN-based screening predictions, as they correct false positives to true negatives. Notably, two discovered candidates, Sr 3 PrMn 2 O 8 and Ba 2 Fe 2 O 5 , display hydrogen yields greater than CeO 2 under specific redox conditions. In conclusion, these results demonstrate our ability to computationally predict and experimentally validate promising candidate TCH materials that have the potential to compete with CeO 2 .
We present new hydrodynamic growth experiments at the National Ignition Facility, which extend previous measurements up to Legendre mode 160 and convergence ratio 4, continuing the growth factor dispersion curve comparison of the low foot and high foot pulses reported by Casey et al. [Phys. Rev. E 90, 011102(R) (2014)]. We show that the high foot pulse has lower growth factor and lower growth rate than the low foot pulse. Using novel on-capsule fiducial markers, we observe that mode 160 inverts sign (changes phase) for the high foot pulse, evidence of amplitude oscillations during the Richtmyer-Meshkov phase of a spherically convergent system. Post-shot simulations are consistent with the experimental measurements for all but the shortest wavelength perturbations, reinforcing the validity of radiation hydrodynamic simulations of ablation front growth in inertial confinement fusion capsules.
We describe perturbation theory (PT) models of galaxy bias for applications to photometric galaxy surveys. We model the galaxy-galaxy and galaxy-matter correlation functions in configuration space and validate against measurements from mock catalogs designed for the Dark Energy Survey (DES). We find that an effective PT model with five galaxy bias parameters provides a good description of the 3D correlation functions above scales of 4 Mpc/$h$ and $z < 1$. Our tests show that at the projected precision of the DES-Year 3 analysis, two of the non-linear bias parameters can be fixed to their co-evolution values, and a third (the $k^2$ term for higher derivative bias) set to zero. The agreement is typically at the 2 percent level over scales of interest, which is the statistical uncertainty of our simulation measurements. To achieve this level of agreement, our {\it fiducial} model requires using the full non-linear matter power spectrum (rather than the 1-loop PT one). We also measure the relationship between the non-linear and linear bias parameters and compare them to their expected co-evolution values. We use these tests to motivate the galaxy bias model and scale cuts for the cosmological analysis of the Dark Energy Survey; our conclusions are generally applicable to all photometric surveys.
The particle size of supported catalysts is a key characteristic for determining structure–property relationships. It is a challenge to obtain this information accurately and in situ using crystallographic methods owing to the small size of such particles (<5 nm) and the fact that they are supported. In this work, the pair distribution function (PDF) technique was used to obtain the particle size distribution of supported Pt catalysts as they grow under typical synthesis conditions. The PDF of Pt nanoparticles grown on zeolite X was isolated and refined using two models: a monodisperse spherical model (single particle size) and a lognormal size distribution. The results were compared and validated using scanning transmission electron microscopy (STEM) results. Both models describe the same trends in average particle size with temperature, but the results of the number-weighted lognormal size distributions can also accurately describe the mean size and the width of the size distributions obtained from STEM. Since the PDF yields crystallite sizes, these results suggest that the grown Pt nanoparticles are monocrystalline. This work shows that refinement of the PDF of small supported monocrystalline nanoparticles can yield accurate mean particle sizes and distributions.
On-line monitoring and tracking of nuclear plant system and component degradation is being investigated as a method for improving the safety, reliability, and maintainability of aging nuclear power plants. Accurate prediction of the current degradation state of system components and structures is important for accurate estimates of their remaining useful life (RUL). The correct quantification and propagation of both the measurement uncertainty and model uncertainty is necessary for quantifying the uncertainty of the RUL prediction. This research project developed and validated methods to perform RUL estimation throughout the lifecycle of plant components. Prognostic methods should seamlessly operate from beginning of component life (BOL) to end of component life (EOL). We term this "Lifecycle Prognostics." When a component is put into use, the only information available may be past failure times of similar components used in similar conditions, and the predicted failure distribution can be estimated with reliability methods such as Weibull Analysis (Type I Prognostics). As the component operates, it begins to degrade and consume its available life. This life consumption may be a function of system stresses, and the failure distribution should be updated to account for the system operational stress levels (Type II Prognostics). When degradation becomes apparent, this information can be used to again improve the RUL estimate (Type III Prognostics). This research focused on developing prognostics algorithms for the three types of prognostics, developing uncertainty quantification methods for each of the algorithms, and, most importantly, developing a framework using Bayesian methods to transition between prognostic model types and update failure distribution estimates as new information becomes available. The developed methods were then validated on a range of accelerated degradation test beds. The ultimate goal of prognostics is to provide an accurate assessment for RUL predictions, with as little uncertainty as possible. From a reliability and maintenance standpoint, there would be improved safety by avoiding all failures. Calculated risk would decrease, saving money by avoiding unnecessary maintenance. One major bottleneck for data-driven prognostics is the availability of run-to-failure degradation data. Without enough degradation data leading to failure, prognostic models can yield RUL distributions with large uncertainty or mathematically unsound predictions. To address these issues a "Lifecycle Prognostics" method was developed to create RUL distributions from Beginning of Life (BOL) to End of Life (EOL). This employs established Type I, II, and III prognostic methods, and Bayesian transitioning between each Type. Bayesian methods, as opposed to classical frequency statistics, show how an expected value, a priori, changes with new data to form a posterior distribution. For example, when you purchase a component you have a prior belief, or estimation, of how long it will operate before failing. As you operate it, you may collect information related to its condition that will allow you to update your estimated failure time. Bayesian methods are best used when limited data are available. The use of a prior also means that information is conserved when new data are available. The weightings of the prior belief and information contained in the sampled data are dependent on the variance (uncertainty) of the prior, the variance (uncertainty) of the data, and the amount of measured data (number of samples). If the variance of the prior is small compared to the uncertainty of the data, the prior will be weighed more heavily. However, as more data are collected, the data will be weighted more heavily and will eventually swamp out the prior in calculating the posterior distribution of model parameters. Fundamentally Bayesian analysis updates a prior belief with new data to get a posterior belief. The general approach to applying the Bayesian method to lifecycle prognostics consisted of identifying the prior, which is the RUL estimate and uncertainty from the previous prognostics type, and combining it with observational data related to the newer prognostics type. The resulting lifecycle prognostics algorithm uses all available information throughout the component lifecycle.
This work is aimed at providing reliable high-quality data from fluidization experiments. Geldart Group A glass beads are used as bed material. The fluidizing medium is air at atmospheric pressure which enters the system at 40% relative humidity. The air inlet velocity is varied over a broad range from 2 U mf to 26 U mf , where the minimum fluidization velocity, U mf , is 0.608 cm/s. There is not a significant change in the mean values of differential pressure; however, there are noticeable trends in their standard deviation values. Preliminary validation studies are performed using the open-source software Multiphase Flow with Interphase eXchanges (MFiX) developed by the National Energy Technology Laboratory (NETL). The results from Eulerian-Eulerian (MFiX-TFM, two-fluid model) and Eulerian-Lagrangian (MFiX-PIC, particle-in-cell) formulations are compared. The work presented in this report highlights the applicability of MFiX-PIC for large-scale applications, and reveals that PIC simulation offers a suitable alternative to TFM simulation when effects due to multiple components or polydispersity are significant. PIC modeling provides a readily extendible framework for such systems. However, PIC models do rely on an empirical closure for inter-particle stress. Some solution discrepancies were evident in MFiX-PIC predictions which require further analysis. As such, the study underlines the need for a systematic approach to quantify the sources of numerical uncertainty within the PIC model. However, even with known empiricism, MFiX-PIC has demonstrated considerable potential in analyzing gas-solid systems. The results obtained are encouraging and warrant further investigation to improve the predictive capability of MFiX-PIC.
This presentation discusses the purpose of the criticality safety validation, decisions that were made during the validation exercise, the motivation that led to the creation of VADER, an explanation of USLSTATS, and an examination of VADER capabilities and interface.
By measuring the elemental abundances of a star, we can gain insight into the composition of its initial gas cloud—the formation site of the star and its planets. Planet formation requires metals, the availability of which is determined by the elemental abundance. In the case where metals are extremely deficient, planet formation can be stifled. To investigate such a scenario requires a large sample of metal-poor stars and a search for planets therein. This paper focuses on the selection and validation of a halo star sample. We select ~17,000 metal-poor halo stars based on their Galactic kinematics, and confirm their low metallicities ([Fe/H] < -0.5), using spectroscopy from the literature. Furthermore, we perform high-resolution spectroscopic observations using LBT/PEPSI and conduct detailed metallicity ([Fe/H]) analyses on a sample of 13 previously-known halo stars that also have hot kinematics. We can use the halo star sample presented here to measure the frequency of planets and to test planet formation in extremely metal-poor environments. The result of the planet search and its implications will be presented and discussed in a companion paper by Boley et al.
Steiner and Houze showed from ground validation data that the Tropical Rain Measuring Mission (TRMM) satellite Precipitation Radar's (PR's) twice daily only sampling should lead to an uncertainty of approximately 20% in rain estimates. They further showed that the uncertainties are smallest at the 5-7.5 km level. Schumacher and Houze used Kwajalein ground validation data to show that the TRMM PR misses only 2.3% of the near surface rainfall but does not see 46% of the area where rain occurs, because of the 17 dBZ PR reflectivity threshold. Houze discusses how the TRMM data extend earlier tropical convective studies to global coverage of the vertical profile of latent heating via the TRMM PR''s ability to distinguish and globally map convective and stratiform precipitation. Process studies carried out under this TRMM grant Yuter and Houze and Yuter et al. studied ship-based radar observations in the tropical eastern Pacific ITCZ. The eastern Pacific precipitation process is different from the western Pacific (the COARE area); rain is heavier but the clouds are not as deep. These process differences may affect the ability to remotely sense precipitation accurately in the two regions. Satellite microwave data were able to detect the precipitation as long as the rain areas exceeded 10 km in dimension. However, the microwave algorithms had difficulty distinguishing light and heavy rain. Satellite IR algorithms only partially detected the rain because the tops of the smaller and more short-lived rain clouds were sometimes not cold enough for the IR algorithms to detect them. Houze et al. focused on the west Pacific precipitating mesoscale convective systems and showed how their precipitation and internal dynamics vary in relation to the slowly varying large-scale heating-driven circulation, which has a structure described by a combination of Kelvin and Rossby wave response to the near-equatorial convective heating constituted by the mesoscale convective systems. Ship and aircraft radar data were used in this study.
A mock up spent fuel canister test section is designed and built at Oak Ridge National Laboratory to support the R&D efforts on the direct disposal of dual purpose spent fuel canisters. The objective of the experimental testing is to investigate feasibility and to identify the unknown to gain confidence in the filing process and to validate computational models designed to simulate the process. The scope of the initial studies is to validate single-physics scaled testing of flow simulation to determine injectability, void filling, filling time, and filling method (gravity vs. pump).
Here, we implement a variance-based distance metric (D n ) to objectively assess skill of sea ice models when multiple output variables or uncertainties in both model predictions and observations need to be considered. The metric compares observations and model data pairs on common spatial and temporal grids improving upon highly aggregated metrics (e.g., total sea ice extent or volume) by capturing the spatial character of model skill. The D n metric is a gamma-distributed statistic that is more general than the χ 2 statistic commonly used to assess model fit, which requires the assumption that the model is unbiased and can only incorporate observational error in the analysis. The D n statistic does not assume that the model is unbiased, and allows the incorporation of multiple observational data sets for the same variable and simultaneously for different variables, along with different types of variances that can characterize uncertainties in both observations and the model. This approach represents a step to establish a systematic framework for probabilistic validation of sea ice models. The methodology is also useful for model tuning by using the D n metric as a cost function and incorporating model parametric uncertainty as part of a scheme to optimize model functionality. We apply this approach to evaluate different configurations of the standalone Los Alamos sea ice model (CICE) encompassing the parametric uncertainty in the model, and to find new sets of model configurations that produce better agreement than previous configurations between model and observational estimates of sea ice concentration and thickness.
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