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All sourcesNASA NTRSDOE OSTI
DOE OSTI2024

Perspectives on Next Steps in Arms Control and Non-Proliferation

Much has happened in arms control over the last year as this chapter has been in development. The prospects for arms control as a viable national security tool have, if anything, grown darker. Russia has falsely equated tearing down the remaining arms control edifice with creating potential leverage vis-à-vis its actions in Ukraine. China has failed to update its talking points on being a responsible arms control actor with its massive nuclear force expansion. The United States has stated clearly that it is open for business on arms control and risk reduction, but it unfortunately has no customers in Russia and China. It remains unclear what specifically the United States is selling in terms of what it wants in a potential agreement. Competitive dynamics and an atmosphere of great power competition are driving all parties further away from the table.

98 NUCLEAR DISARMAMENT, SAFEGUARDS, AND PHYSICAL P↗
DOE OSTI2024

Part 1: Nuclear Mis- and Disinformation and Impacts to the American Public

Russia’s nuclear saber rattling throughout the war in Ukraine, reports of China’s increasing nuclear modernization, and the 2023 release of Oppenheimer has reignited in the public talk of nuclear weapons. With the increasing prevalence of conversation around nuclear weapons comes increasing opportunity for mis- or disinformation to spread about them and the nuclear enterprise (NE). Mis- and disinformation are not new phenomena. However, the speed and reach offered by current digital communications technology is novel. What are the impacts of misinformation or disinformation about nuclear weapons to the American public?

22 GENERAL STUDIES OF NUCLEAR REACTORS↗
DOE OSTI2024

Summary Report of the Technical Meeting on International Network of Nuclear Reaction Data Centres IAEA Headquarters, Vienna, Austria

This report summarizes the IAEA Technical Meeting on the International Network of Nuclear Reaction Data Centres held at the IAEA Headquarters in Vienna, Austria from 14 to 17 May 2024. The meeting was attended by 26 participants representing 13 cooperative Centres from eight Member States (China, Hungary, India, Japan, Korea, Russia, Ukraine and USA) and two International Organisations (NEA, IAEA). A summary of the meeting is given in this report along with the conclusions and actions.

73 NUCLEAR PHYSICS AND RADIATION PHYSICS↗
DOE OSTI2024

Net Zero World 2024 Achievements

Net Zero World, launched at COP26, aims to expedite the transition to clean energy systems worldwide. This report details Net Zero World's achievements in 2024. Leveraging expertise from ten U.S. Department of Energy national laboratories and nine federal agencies, Net Zero World has provided specialized technical support and energy modeling to eight partner countries: Argentina, Chile, Egypt, Indonesia, Nigeria, Singapore, Thailand, and Ukraine.

29 ENERGY PLANNING, POLICY, AND ECONOMY↗
DOE OSTI2025

How Quantum Sensing Will Help Solve GPS Denial in Warfare

The U.S. military’s ability to posture, deter, and prevail in future conflicts may rest on the quantum sensing position, navigation, and timing (PNT) capabilities that are currently being developed. Heavy reliance on GPS signals for PNT has become a critical vulnerability for the U.S. military. Meanwhile, the conflict in Ukraine has demonstrated that GPS denial and electronic warfare (EW) is now a key component of modern combat and satellite-guided munitions are reportedly being rendered ineffective. The Department of Defense (DOD) is focusing on upgrading GPS to use stronger, military-specific signals, which will still be vulnerable to EW and anti-satellite capabilities. A more diverse and resilient alternate-PNT strategy is needed to ensure mission success.

45 MILITARY TECHNOLOGY, WEAPONRY, AND NATIONAL DEF↗
DOE OSTI2026

On Theories of Change: Rethinking the Ban Treaty and Disarmament Strategies

A week before Israel bombed Iran’s nuclear facilities, the Director General of the International Atomic Energy Agency (IAEA) Rafael Grossi had lunch with the Financial Times. In the interview, Grossi expressed both optimism and pessimism about the nuclear landscape: he was hopeful about prospects for diplomacy, including with Iran. But he also expressed longer-term concerns about a proliferation cascade and rising nuclear risks, in particular, Russia’s nuclear threats amidst the war in Ukraine. “In the past, this was quite taboo,” he said, “but now people talk about tactical nuclear weapons like something which could be contained or permissible.” Given subsequent events in Iran, along with the expiration of New START in 2026 and expanding nuclear arsenals in Russia and China, pessimism would seem to trump hope for prospects for nuclear disarmament.

45 MILITARY TECHNOLOGY, WEAPONRY, AND NATIONAL DEF↗
DOE OSTI2025

White Paper: Drone Detection with Radar

INL recently summarized how Ukraine conducted an unprecedented drone attack on Russian air bases on Sunday, June 1, 2025 using Russian cellular networks to operate the drones. It also showed how a drone with a cellular connection can be detected using network signatures. This report adds an additional section, section 2, on detecting drones with radar if they are not connected to a cellular network and hence network signatures are not available.

42 ENGINEERING↗
DOE OSTI2024

Editorial: Advanced in situ characterization of biological interfaces and materials

Rapid changes are occurring on this dynamic planet–in 2020 anthropogenic mass was reported to not only match but exceed the mass of natural origins (Elhacham et al., 2020). These indications do not bold well for humanity in the coming generations, as we face 2 degree overall temperature increases over the next 5 years, CO 2 is spewing into the atmosphere at the Gigatonne (Gt) rate per year without any signs of mitigation in the foreseeable future, ocean water levels are rising to incredible levels, drinking water availability is disappearing, humanity is heavily reliant on the “drill-and-fill” culture, and two wars are currently being fought in Gaza and Ukraine (Carr et al., 2024). And even with these pressures, humanity continues to eke out impressive scientific and technological achievements in the recent past including mRNA vaccines to counter a global pandemic (Hogan and Pardi, 2022) and the development of CRISPR-Cas9 drugs (Parums, 2024). All these developments are only possible from the incremental methodological improvements taking place presently.

36 MATERIALS SCIENCE↗
DOE OSTI2024

Transboundary determinants of avian zoonotic infectious diseases: challenges for strengthening research capacity and connecting surveillance networks

As the climate changes, global systems have become increasingly unstable and unpredictable. This is particularly true for many disease systems, including subtypes of highly pathogenic avian influenzas (HPAIs) that are circulating the world. Ecological patterns once thought stable are changing, bringing new populations and organisms into contact with one another. Wild birds continue to be hosts and reservoirs for numerous zoonotic pathogens, and strains of HPAI and other pathogens have been introduced into new regions via migrating birds and transboundary trade of wild birds. With these expanding environmental changes, it is even more crucial that regions or counties that previously did not have surveillance programs develop the appropriate skills to sample wild birds and add to the understanding of pathogens in migratory and breeding birds through research. For example, little is known about wild bird infectious diseases and migration along the Mediterranean and Black Sea Flyway (MBSF), which connects Europe, Asia, and Africa. Focusing on avian influenza and the microbiome in migratory wild birds along the MBSF, this project seeks to understand the determinants of transboundary disease propagation and coinfection in regions that are connected by this flyway. Through the creation of a threat reduction network for avian diseases (Avian Zoonotic Disease Network, AZDN) in three countries along the MBSF (Georgia, Ukraine, and Jordan), this project is strengthening capacities for disease diagnostics; microbiomes; ecoimmunology; field biosafety; proper wildlife capture and handling; experimental design; statistical analysis; and vector sampling and biology. Here, we cover what is required to build a wild bird infectious disease research and surveillance program, which includes learning skills in proper bird capture and handling; biosafety and biosecurity; permits; next generation sequencing; leading-edge bioinformatics and statistical analyses; and vector and environmental sampling. Creating connected networks for avian influenzas and other pathogen surveillance will increase coordination and strengthen biosurveillance globally in wild birds.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2022

Pandemic, War, and Global Energy Transitions

The COVID-19 pandemic and Russia’s war on Ukraine have impacted the global economy, including the energy sector. The pandemic caused drastic fluctuations in energy demand, oil price shocks, disruptions in energy supply chains, and hampered energy investments, while the war left the world with energy price hikes and energy security challenges. The long-term impacts of these crises on low-carbon energy transitions and mitigation of climate change are still uncertain but are slowly emerging. This paper analyzes the impacts throughout the energy system, including upstream fuel supply, renewable energy investments, demand for energy services, and implications for energy equity, by reviewing recent studies and consulting experts in the field. We find that both crises initially appeared as opportunities for low-carbon energy transitions: the pandemic by showing the extent of lifestyle and behavioral change in a short period and the role of science-based policy advice, and the war by highlighting the need for greater energy diversification and reliance on local, renewable energy sources. However, the early evidence suggests that policymaking worldwide is focused on short-term, seemingly quicker solutions, such as supporting the incumbent energy industry in the post-pandemic era to save the economy and looking for new fossil fuel supply routes for enhancing energy security following the war. As such, the fossil fuel industry may emerge even stronger after these energy crises creating new lock-ins. This implies that the public sentiment against dependency on fossil fuels may end as a lost opportunity to translate into actions toward climate-friendly energy transitions, without ambitious plans for phasing out such fuels altogether. We propose policy recommendations to overcome these challenges toward achieving resilient and sustainable energy systems, mostly driven by energy services.

29 ENERGY PLANNING, POLICY, AND ECONOMY↗
DOE OSTI2021

Modelled land use and land cover change emissions – a spatio-temporal comparison of different approaches

Abstract. Quantifying the net carbon flux from land use and land cover changes (fLULCC) is critical for understanding the global carbon cycle and, hence, to support climate change mitigation. However, large-scale fLULCC is not directly measurable and has to be inferred from models instead, such as semi-empirical bookkeeping models and process-based dynamic global vegetation models (DGVMs). By definition, fLULCC estimates are not directly comparable between these two different model types. As an important example, DGVM-based fLULCC in the annual global carbon budgets is estimated under transient environmental forcing and includes the so-called loss of additional sink capacity (LASC). The LASC results from the impact of environmental changes on land carbon storage potential of managed land compared to potential vegetation and accumulates over time, which is not captured in bookkeeping models. The fLULCC from transient DGVM simulations, thus, strongly depends on the timing of land use and land cover changes mainly because LASC accumulation is cut off at the end of the simulated period. To estimate the LASC, the fLULCC from pre-industrial DGVM simulations, which is independent of changing environmental conditions, can be used. Additionally, DGVMs using constant present-day environmental forcing enable an approximation of bookkeeping estimates. Here, we analyse these three DGVM-derived fLULCC estimations (under transient, pre-industrial, and present-day forcing) for 12 models within 18 regions and quantify their differences as well as climate- and CO2-induced components and compare them to bookkeeping estimates. Averaged across the models, we find a global fLULCC (under transient conditions) of 2.0±0.6 PgC yr−1 for 2009–2018, of which ∼40 % are attributable to the LASC (0.8±0.3 PgC yr−1). From 1850 onward, the fLULCC accumulated to 189±56 PgC with 40±15 PgC from the LASC. Around 1960, the accumulating nature of the LASC causes global transient fLULCC estimates to exceed estimates under present-day conditions, despite generally increased carbon stocks in the latter. Regional hotspots of high cumulative and annual LASC values are found in the USA, China, Brazil, equatorial Africa, and Southeast Asia, mainly due to deforestation for cropland. Distinct negative LASC estimates in Europe (early reforestation) and from 2000 onward in the Ukraine (recultivation of post-Soviet abandoned agricultural land), indicate that fLULCC estimates in these regions are lower in transient DGVM compared to bookkeeping approaches. Our study unravels the strong dependence of fLULCC estimates on the time a certain land use and land cover change event happened to occur and on the chosen time period for the forcing of environmental conditions in the underlying simulations. We argue for an approach that provides an accounting of the fLULCC that is more robust against these choices, for example by estimating a mean DGVM ensemble fLULCC and LASC for a defined reference period and homogeneous environmental changes (CO2 only).

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2023

Recent and Planned Improvements to the System Advisor Model (SAM)

This talk will focus on recent and planned modeling improvements to the NREL System Advisor ModelTM (SAM), including PV hourly clipping correction, expanded geographic scope of PVWatts including Ukraine, additional options for hybrids, and enhanced PySAM and GUI interoperability. Additional topics will also include: bifacial modeling features including irradiance on the ground for agrivoltaics, PV uncertainty simulation features, and integrations with other NREL and industry tools.

battery↗
DOE OSTI2023

Net Zero World Initiative: Net Zero World COP28 Program Highlights

The Net Zero World initiative, a U.S. flagship program launched at COP26, is designed to support countries in accelerating transitions to clean energy systems. Combining expertise from 10 U.S. Department of Energy laboratories and 9 U.S. government agencies, Net Zero World collaborates with governments in Argentina, Chile, Egypt, Indonesia, Nigeria, Singapore, Thailand, and Ukraine to fortify net-zero pathways, advance implementation of priority actions, and mobilize significant investment in clean energy projects and infrastructure, targeting $10 billion by 2025. This fact sheet highlights program impacts to be presented at COP28.

decarbonization↗
DOE OSTI2020

Choosing the Best Modeling Platform for Radiological Risk Assessment Models - 20468

Radiological risk assessments, in the form of performance or safety assessments, are often required under regulations or guidance for remediation of contaminated land, decommissioning of contaminated buildings or structures, and radioactive waste disposal. These risk assessments are usually supported by fate and transport models that address decay and ingrowth of radionuclides, as well as their movement through engineered systems and the natural environment. These models are often projected thousands, or more, years into the future, largely because the radioactive species change through decay and ingrowth, and hence the magnitude of the radioactive effect changes with time. There are many computer codes that are available to address this type of modeling. They range from addressing specific pathways or processes such as infiltration of water, groundwater, surface water, air, biota, diffusion and advection of water and gases, to those that try to couple all processes together to evaluate the impact of fate and transport through the entire system to places in space and time to which access is assumed. These different types of codes are sometimes separated with the monikers process-level and systems-level codes, although it is often not clear that this separation does justice to the capabilities of the many codes that are available to evaluate fate and transport of radionuclides. The focus of this paper is the latter group of modeling codes. Several systems level modeling codes exist and are used. There are differences between these codes in terms of utility, flexibility, complexity and cost. The purpose of this paper is to compare a few of these codes in the context of work currently being performed by the International Atomic Energy Agency (IAEA) Modeling and Data for Radiological Impact Assessments (MODARIA) II Working Group 1 (WG1). The MODARIA II WG1's main focus is how stakeholder engaged decision analysis can, or should, be applied to radiological contamination problems so that better, longstanding, sustainable, solutions are reached. However, the WG1 also recognizes the potential impact of the modeling tools that are chosen to address radiological risk, which is often a primary objective of decision making for radiological problems. Other objectives might also be important, such as constraining costs, obtaining financing, minimizing impact on ecosystems, saving cultural resources, saving jobs, farmland, environmental justice, etc., in a full decision analysis for a given radiological contamination problem, but none of these other objectives have the same types of complex modeling needs as minimize radiological dose. Consequently, a further focus of WG1 is to evaluate the potential impacts on decision making of the choice of fate and transport, and risk assessment, modeling codes that are used to support decision making. The WG1 will produce a report at the end of 2020 that will focus on an approach to effective decision making and stakeholder engagement. The report will also consider the role that performance assessment modeling should play in the decision-making process, including the impact of the choice of modeling tools or computer codes on risk-informed decision making. Several sites around the World have been made available by Member States for these model comparisons, and several modeling tools have been considered. However, the focus of this paper is on two of the sites, one in Belgium and one in Ukraine, and on three of the tools: NORMALYSA (NORM And Legacy Site Assessment); GoldSim{sup C}, and AMBER{sup C}. The final report from this working group will also cover other modeling tools, including RESRAD, and PC-Cream{sup R}. (authors)

12 MANAGEMENT OF RADIOACTIVE AND NON-RADIOACTIVE W↗
DOE OSTI2023

A Real-Time ANPC Inverter Digital Twin with Integrated Design-For-Trust

The demand for renewable energy has increased over the last few years, and so has the demand for greater expectations within the energy market. This increasing trend has been accompanied by more significant usage of internet-connected devices (IoT), leading to critical electrical infrastructure being connected to the internet. Implementing internet connectivity with such devices and systems provides benefits such as improving the system's performance, facilitating irregularity and anomaly mitigation, and providing additional situational awareness for enhanced decision-making. However, enhancing the connected system with IoT introduces a drawback – a greater vulnerability to cyber-attacks. Cyber-attacks targeting critical infrastructure in the electrical sector have occurred in the United States and Ukraine. These cyber-attacks highlight and expose vulnerabilities that a system inherits when connecting to the internet. These attacks left thousands of customers without electricity for hours until operators could regain control of the electric utility grid. Therefore, to address the vulnerabilities of an internet-connected power electronic device, this work focused on the hardware layer of the system. Implementing a cyber-control system inside the hardware layer can significantly reduce the possibility of an attacker patching malicious controller firmware into a photovoltaic grid-connected inverter, thus mitigating the likelihood that the inverter becomes inactive a cyber-attack scenario. With this mitigation technique, if a cyberattack is successful and an attacker gains control of the network, a cyber-defense technique is in place to mitigate the impact of the cyber-attack. This additional protection layer was developed based on an innovative concept known as Digital Twin (DT). A DT, in this case, replicates an Active-Neutral Point Clamped (ANPC) inverter and was designed using a hardware language known as VHDL (Very High-Speed Integrated Circuit Hardware Description Language) and applied to Field-Programmable-GateArray (FPGA). The DT is embedded within the FPGA and contained in a controller board, the UCB (Unified Controller Board), developed by the University of Arkansas electrical engineering team. This UCB also contains two Digital Signal Processors (DSPs) responsible for generating associated signals to control an authentic physical inverter. These DSP signals are received and processed by the FPGA that implements the DT of an ANPC; in other words, it simulates in realtime the expected output of an actual ANPC inverter using the signals from the DSP. When a new firmware is ready to be patched, the DT provides output signals simulating behavior that a real ANPC inverter would generate with the new firmware. The new firmware is tested to check if it meets all the operational requirements established using a Design-For-Trust technique (DFTr). If the new firmware fails in at least one of the DFT tests, it is considered malicious and must be rejected. This work is divided into sections, such as Background, which explains the pieces that were used and the strategy behind this work; Process and Procedure, which explains the methodology that was adopted to prove the reliability and effectiveness of this work; Results and Discussion, where the simulations and results are described and explained; followed by Conclusion and Future work section, which concludes this work and adds possible future projects to continue this work further.

do Amaral Custodio, Paulo Vitor↗
DOE OSTI2024

Reentrant polar phase induced by the ferroionic coupling in B⁢i 1−𝑥 ⁢S⁢m 𝑥 ⁢Fe⁢O 3 nanoparticles

Using the model of four sublattices, the Landau-Ginzburg-Devonshire-Kittel phenomenological approach and the Stephenson-Highland ionic adsorption model for the description of coupled polar and antipolar long-range orders in ferroics, we analytically calculated the phase diagrams and polar properties of B⁢i 1−𝑥 ⁢S⁢m 𝑥⁢ Fe⁢O 3 nanoparticles covered by surface ions with dependence on their size, surface ions density, samarium content 𝑥 , and temperature. The size effects and ferroionic coupling govern the appearance and stability conditions of the long-range ordered ferroelectric, reentrant ferrielectric, and antiferroelectric phases in B⁢i 1−𝑥 ⁢S⁢m 𝑥 ⁢Fe⁢O 3 nanoparticles. Calculated phase diagrams are in qualitative agreement with the x-ray diffraction phase analysis, electron paramagnetic resonance, infrared spectroscopy, and electrophysical measurements of B⁢i 1−𝑥 ⁢S⁢m 𝑥 ⁢Fe⁢O 3 nanopowders sintered by the solution combustion method. The combined theoretical-experimental approach allows us to explain the influence of the ferroionic coupling and size effects in B⁢i 1−𝑥 ⁢S⁢m 𝑥 ⁢Fe⁢O 3 nanoparticles on their polar properties.

antiferroelectricity↗
DOE OSTI2026

Cryogenic light detectors with thermal signal amplification for 0 νββ search experiments

As a step towards the realization of cryogenic-detector experiments to search for neutrinoless double-beta decay (such as CROSS, BINGO, and CUPID), we investigated a batch of 10 Ge light detectors (LDs) assisted by Neganov-Trofimov-Luke (NTL) signal amplification. Each LD was assembled with a large cubic light-emitting crystal (45 mm side) using the recently developed CROSS mechanical structure. The detector array was operated at milli-Kelvin temperatures in a pulse-tube cryostat at the Canfranc underground laboratory in Spain. We achieved good performance with scintillating bolometers from CROSS, made of Li 2 100 MoO 4 crystals and used as reference detectors of the setup, and with all LDs tested (except for a single device that encountered an electronics issue). No leakage current was observed for 8 LDs with an electrode bias up to 100 V. Operating the LDs at an 80 V electrode bias applied in parallel, we obtained a gain of around 9 in the signal-to-noise ratio of these devices, allowing us to achieve a baseline noise RMS of O(10 eV). Thanks to the strong current polarization of the temperature sensors, the time response of the devices was reduced to around half a millisecond in rise time. The achieved performance of the LDs was extrapolated via simulations of pile-up rejection capability for several configurations of the CUPID detector structure. Despite the sub-optimal noise conditions of the LDs (particularly at high frequencies), we demonstrated that the NTL technology provides a viable solution for background reduction in CUPID.

47 OTHER INSTRUMENTATION↗
DOE OSTI2025

Late-Stage Oxidation of C( sp 3 )─H Bonds with High Efficiency and Alkyl Group Dihydroxylation of Complex Molecules

Here, the late-stage oxidation of C(sp 3 )─H bonds is highly valuable for modulating the solubility and binding of bioactive compounds and for diversification of complex molecules. Undirected methods for C(sp 3 )─H oxidation are valuable for the installation of hydroxyl groups at sites remote from other functional groups present in the molecule, but existing catalysts are limited by low turnover numbers and lengthy ligand syntheses. Perfluorinated ruthenium porphyrins are highly active catalysts for the oxidation of alkyl C─H bonds, but the scope of the transformation with complex molecules under conditions of limiting substrate has not been investigated. We report that carbonylruthenium(II) tetrakis(pentafluorophenyl)porphyrin [Ru(TPFPP)(CO)] catalyzes the selective oxidation of tertiary C(sp 3 )─H bonds in a broad range of complex natural products and drugs, with turnover numbers as high as 1000, and the tolerance of the reaction to various functional groups was rapidly assessed by performing a model reaction in the presence of additives. We show how the combination of this undirected C(sp 3 )─H oxidation and a directed C(sp 3 )─H silylation and oxidation provides rapid access to highly oxidized, 1,2-diol derivatives of natural products by a formal dihydroxylation of an alkyl group.

Alcohols↗