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At least 73 records · Page 4
All sourcesNASA NTRSDOE OSTI
DOE OSTI2021

Rapid changes in agricultural land use and hydrology in the Driftless Region

Annual cropping systems are common in the Driftless Region of the U.S. Midwest, but soil degradation is prone to happen in such systems due to the rugged topography of the region. Recent rapid increases in row crop area have been noted in this region, with annual precipitation and hydrologic extremes on the rise in recent decades. The aim of this research to use geospatial datasets and tools in order to assess the regional trends in land use, precipitation, and hydrologic change and quantify the relationship between these environmental trends. Between 2006 and 2017, substantial row crop expansion of 10,000 ha or more was common across HUC 8 (Hydrologic Unit Code 8) watersheds in our study area. Expansion occurred mainly on steeper slopes, converting existing grasslands or alfalfa (Medicago sativa L.) to row crops. Classifying land as planted (in row crops), plantable (in row crops or could be converted), and unplantable (unable to be converted) revealed that Driftless Region watersheds have ~30–50% of plantable land available for future expansion. Annual precipitation was highly variable during this time period but had a general increasing trend. On average, precipitation showed higher correlation to streamflow compared to row crop expansion across 27 USGS river gage drainage basins in our study area. However, when the increase in row crop area was significant and was accompanied by increasing precipitation, stronger correlation between row crop area and annual streamflow was exhibited. This finding suggests that row crop expansion acts to enhance the effects of increasing precipitation on local hydrology.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2024

Monitoring water quality in the lower Kansas River using remote sensing

Abstract We demonstrate how to combine remote sensing data from satellite imagery (Sentinel‐2) with in situ water quality gauging (USGS Super Gages and the Gybe hyperspectral radiometer) to create spatially dense maps of water quality parameters (chlorophyll‐a concentration, turbidity, and nitrate plus nitrite concentration) along the lower Kansas River. The water quality maps are created using locally tuned models of the target water quality parameters, and this study describes the steps used to design, calibrate, and validate the empirical correlations. Water quality parameters such as chlorophyll‐a concentration are correlated with well‐studied absorption and scattering features in the visible spectrum (roughly 400–700 nm). Nutrients (such as nitrate plus nitrite concentration) lack strong absorption features in the visible spectrum, and in those cases we describe a novel surrogate data modeling approach that identifies overlapping water parcels between the in situ gauging and the remote sensing imagery. Measurements from the overlapping water parcels yield excellent correlations () for the target water quality parameters for limited windows of time (or limited sections of river reaches). Examples are provided illustrating how the water quality maps can be used to track river inputs from ungauged sources (such as creeks), or reveal the mixing patterns at the confluences.

Tufillaro, Nicholas↗
DOE OSTI2025

Chloride Molten Salt Electrolysis Enables Integrated and Energy-Efficient Process for NdFeB Magnet Fabrication

Rare-earth elements (REEs) have been identified by NATO, the USDOE, and USGS as critical materials, i.e., materials which have significant demand yet pose supply-chain risks. Many of the existing processes for separations, metallization, and final parts production used across the REE supply chain involve energy intensive steps. For example, neodymium (Nd or NdPr) is produced using oxyfluoride electrolysis of Nd 2 O 3 , which requires hydrofluoric acid to produce a key electrolyte component (NdF 3 ) and generates undesired perfluorocarbon (PFC) gases. Such challenges make securing a resilient supply chain for NdFeB permanent magnets in countries like the United States prohibitively difficult. Here, we propose a chloride-based MSE process that circumvents these challenges, delivering high-purity NdPr from a (NdPr)Cl 3 feed from upstream REE separations. This eliminates environmentally-damaging steps of oxalate or carbonate precipitation and calcination, and enables superior production rates due to greater solubility of (NdPr)Cl 3 in chloride melts compared to Nd 2 O 3 . We show that CMSE generates high-purity NdPr (99.4 wt.%) while being energy-efficient (~ 6 kWh/kg-Nd). NdPr from CMSE was used to fabricate a NdFeB magnet with an excellent maximum energy product (> 40 MGOe), comparable to commercially available NdFeB magnets. This establishes CMSE as a leading approach for integrated, energy-efficient NdFeB magnet production.

Materials science↗
DOE OSTI2022

Hydrologic investigations of radar-rainfall error propagation to rainfall-runoff model hydrographs

Rainfall is arguably the most important yet most variable input for rainfall-runoff hydrologic models. In this study, the authors search for the characteristics of radar-rainfall estimates that are most important for skillful streamflow predictions. They perform comprehensive hydrologic investigations of radar-rainfall characteristics, including spatiotemporal resolution, radar range visibility, statistical characterization of rainfall variability, all vis-a-vis basin characteristics such as size and river network topology. Since the true rainfall fields are unknown, the authors exploit a paradigm of using two independently constructed radar-rainfall products i.e., Multi-Radar Multi-Sensor and IFC-ZR used operationally by the Iowa Flood Center (IFC). Using the distributed hydrologic model called the Hillslope-Link Model for the domain of the state of Iowa, they evaluate streamflow prediction at 140 USGS gauge stations that monitor rivers in Iowa. Through spatial and temporal rainfall aggregation experiments, the authors show that the impact of spatial and temporal resolution of rainfall is significant typically for smaller basins while starts reducing significantly for basins larger than 1,000 km 2 . Other rainfall characteristics they explored do not reveal a strong signature in the relationship of rainfall differences between the two products and hydrograph errors. However, exploring the product similarities rather than differences reveals that the basin-wide rainfall volume has the most significant effect on streamflow prediction. The results from this study are generalizable for all rainfall observing systems.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2021

Land cover change-induced decline in terrestrial gross primary production over the conterminous United States from 2001 to 2016

As one of the most dynamic aspects of global environmental change, land cover change (LCC) has a profound impact on terrestrial carbon sequestration. However, LCC-induced carbon fluxes are still the most uncertain terms in global and regional carbon budgets. Ecosystem gross primary production (GPP) is the total carbon uptake by vegetation through photosynthesis, serving as a major control on ecosystem function and land carbon balance during and after the modification of the land surface. However, accurately capturing LCC-induced GPP changes requires both high-quality land cover data and controlling for variation driven by other environmental factors such as climate. In this study, we comprehensively examined the effects of LCC on annual GPP trends over the conterminous United States (CONUS) from 2001 to 2016 using the USGS National Land Cover Database, a remote sensing-driven ecosystem model, and the Google Earth Engine cloud computing platform. We designed a series of model experiments to identify LCC effects on GPP by controlling climate effects. During the study period, LCC exerted a strong negative effect on total GPP across the CONUS ([-2.2, -1.8] Tg C yr -2 ), while climate had smaller positive effects ([0.17, 0. 92] Tg C yr -2 ). The LCC-induced reduction of GPP was mainly caused by net forest loss ([-1.98, -1.39] Tg C yr -2 ) and urban expansion ([-2.03, -1.92] Tg C yr -2 ), but was partially offset by increases in crop area ([+0.66, +0.79] Tg C yr -2 ). Ensemble simulations from TRENDY did not capture the strong negative LCC influences on GPP, likely due to limitations of the adopted land use/cover data. Overall, our study provides a novel perspective on LCC-induced GPP changes, which could help to improve our understanding of ecosystem function changes and constrain the estimation of land carbon balance in the context of anthropogenic activity and climate change.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2024

Sources of Li isotope bias during SIMS analysis of standard glasses

The 7 Li/ 6 Li ratios in fourteen USGS, MPI-DING, and NIST glass reference materials (RMs) were analyzed by LG-SIMS to assess compositional matrix effects, evaluate RM δ 7 Li homogeneity, and calculate the useful yield of lithium in silicate glasses. The analyzed RMs cover a range of SiO 2 contents from 45.5 to 75.6% (komatiite to rhyolite), the largest compositional range yet evaluated for δ 7 Li matrix effects. We observe a matrix-induced bias (matrix effect) of up to 18‰ over the studied range that linearly correlates with SiO 2 content, demonstrating that SiO 2 content is a critical factor that must be considered when using silicate glasses to standardize for silicate samples of unknown δ 7 Li composition. All RMs were found to be sufficiently reproducible to aid in standardization of variable SiO 2 contents and appear isotopically homogeneous at the precision of our measurements. Lithium ionizes very efficiently in these RMs, with measurable yields >5% in all fused-rock RMs and >15% in low SiO 2 fused-rock RMs measured at high beam intensities. Finally, fused-rock RMs ionize lithium 2-3x more efficiently than synthetic glass RMs, which may be related to differences in major oxide chemistry and the reduced nature of the synthetic glasses relative to their fused counterparts.

37 INORGANIC, ORGANIC, PHYSICAL, AND ANALYTICAL CH↗
DOE OSTI2025

WigglyRivers: A tool to characterize the multiscale nature of meandering channels

Channel sinuosity is ubiquitous along river networks, producing complex patterns that encapsulate and influence morphodynamic processes and ecosystem services. Accurately characterizing these patterns is challenging with traditional curvature-based algorithms. Here, in this study, we present WigglyRivers, a Python package that builds on existing wavelet-based methods to create an unsupervised meander identification and characterization tool. The package uses planimetric information the user provides or from the USGS’s High-Resolution National Hydrography Dataset to characterize individual reaches or entire river networks. WigglyRivers also includes a supervised river identification tool for manually selecting individual meandering features. Here, we provide examples of idealized river transects and show the capabilities of WigglyRivers. We also use the supervised identification tool to validate the unsupervised identification on river transects across the continental US. WigglyRivers is a tool to understand better the multiscale characteristics of river networks and the link between river geomorphology and river corridor connectivity.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2025

Monitoring river flow status using low-cost wildlife camera and image segmentation artificial intelligence

Continuous measurement and monitoring of surface water coverage in non-perennial streams are essential for understanding the exchange fluxes between surface and subsurface waters under both inundated and non-inundated conditions. In this study, a wildlife camera photo-based framework was developed to monitor small stream water inundation, depth, discharge, and velocity. Two advanced machine learning models, YOLOv8 and Mask2Former, were utilized to efficiently analyze images captured by wildlife cameras. The accuracy of the framework was validated against on-site depth measurements at six sites in the Yakima River Basin, along with the gage height, discharge, and velocity data from four USGS sites. This approach facilitates long-term, continuous monitoring and quantification of river intermittency and water availability with high precision and low cost, thereby advancing river ecosystem research and management.

machine learning↗
DOE OSTI2020

Relationships among forest type, watershed characteristics, and watershed ET in rural basins of the Southeastern US

Evapotranspiration (ET) typically accounts for 60–70% of precipitation in rural basins of the Southeastern United States. Since 1930, substantial reforestation of former croplands has occurred in the Piedmont and Appalachian Highlands in this area, leading to an expected increase in ET and reduction in baseflow. This study examines relationships between basin vegetative cover, abiotic factors, and water-budget partitioning in 45 USGS-gaged rural basins in the Southeastern US. Data are for the 1982–2014 water years with watersheds having ≥40% forest cover, crystalline-rock aquifers, minimal basin water export, and no large reservoirs. Long-term annual ET is calculated using the water-budget equation (ET = P-Q), which ranges from 641 to 971 mm/yr. (median 824). Vegetative cover and other basin variables are regressed against ET to quantify the effects of vegetative and forest types. Budyko analysis is employed to compare the watersheds and to evaluate factors affecting residuals. Regression analysis indicates that ET behavior is best explained by abiotic factors (i.e., precipitation and temperature) but forest-cover type also has some effect. Evergreen forest cover is less common than deciduous or mixed forest but has a positive relationship with ET, while deciduous and total forest have negative relationships with ET. Comparison of water-balance and Budyko-estimated ET indicates that deciduous and total forest are associated with negative residuals while evergreen is not significant. Furthermore, these results show that: forest cover effects on basin ET are complicated; forest-cover type is important for water-yield management in this region, and abiotic basin characteristics exert stronger control than forest cover on ET.

60 APPLIED LIFE SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2022

A review study of rare Earth, Cobalt, Lithium, and Manganese in Coal-based sources and process development for their recovery

The world’s majority predominantly relies on foreign sources for supplying critical minerals. This renders the countries susceptible to supply chain disruption and urges them to develop alternative sources to compete in technological advancements. Among many proven newly identified sources, coal and coal-based materials present their opportunities. Due to the complex structure of coal, many mineral forms can be found in coal-related sources, including critical element-containing minerals. Among the fifty critical elements and minerals defined by the USGS, the rare earth elements, cobalt, lithium, and manganese, are particularly significant as they have enormous importance in high-technology product development. These critical metals can be found in high concentrations in coal-derived sources, such as coal refuse, coal combustion products, and coal acid mine drainage, and be recovered through various separation techniques. Further, this study aims to advance the understanding of these elements' extraction and commercial potential from coal and coal-related sources and help address the world's challenges in the critical mineral supply chain. The concentrations and occurrences of these four commodities in coal-related sources were first reviewed. Later, their recovery processes were discussed, and a conceptual process flowsheet was proposed to selectively recover the rare earth elements, lithium, cobalt, and manganese from coal-based sources.

58 GEOSCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2025

A regional comparison of sub-daily flow variability in regulated and unregulated rivers in the United States

Regulating rivers for hydropower or other purposes can dramatically alter river flow patterns, including creating substantial changes in flow over short, minutes-to-hours-long timespans known as sub-daily flow variability (SDFV). The impacts of flexible hydropower production on flow and aquatic organisms are increasingly documented in research. However, the degree to which flow alteration relates to different hydropower operational modes in distinct geographical regions and seasons is not well understood. This study offers a methodology for regional- and species-appropriate evaluations of potential impacts of flow on fish based on sub-daily flow characteristics of hydropower operational modes. We analyzed 15-min discharge data between 2018 and 2021 from 69 USGS stream gages to compare SDFV in hydropeaking, run-of-river, and unregulated systems in the US Southeast and Pacific Northwest. Regulated systems exhibited significant SDFV downstream from hydropower facilities relative to unregulated systems, but specific impacts differed between regions. Regulated systems in the Southeast were characterized by high flow coefficients of variation and ratios (hydropeaking only) and extended durations of daily upramping flow phases. Regulated systems in the Pacific Northwest were characterized by many short flow phases per day and large portions of the day spent upramping. Pacific Northwest unregulated systems displayed the strongest seasonal flow patterns while Southeastern hydropeaking systems displayed the greatest SDFV. Given that SDFV impacts multiple dimensions of fish ecology, region-specific sub-daily flow signatures have important implications for understanding and mitigating potential community-, species-, and age-specific effects on fish in different parts of the country.

Fish↗
DOE OSTI2026

Knowledge-guided graph machine learning for spatially distributed prediction of daily discharge and nitrogen export dynamics

Spatially distributed prediction of streamflow and nitrogen export dynamics is essential for precision management of agricultural watersheds. While temporal deep learning models such as Long Short-Term Memory (LSTM) have shown strong performance at basin scales, their ability to generalize spatially is limited by insufficient representation of spatial dependencies and flow paths, particularly under data-scarce conditions. To address this gap, we propose HydroGraphNet, a knowledge-guided graph machine learning framework that integrates process-based knowledge and explicit spatial learning into temporal modeling. This framework incorporates directed graph topology to encode watershed connectivity and upstream inflows, with mass balance constraints to improve physical consistency. To enhance generalization in sparsely monitored regions, HydroGraphNet is pretrained on synthetic data generated by the SWAT+ (Soil and Water Assessment Tool Plus) model. We evaluated HydroGraphNet in the Upper Sangamon River Basin (44 HUC-12 subwatersheds, 2001–2020) against two LSTM baselines: a lumped basin-level model and a distributed variant. When benchmarked on SWAT+ simulations in pretraining, HydroGraphNet improved test NSEs by 8.9% (discharge) and 13.7% (NO₃–N load) in temporal extrapolation, and by 27.1% and 34.7% in spatial extrapolation, relative to the Lumped LSTM baseline. After fine-tuning with USGS monitoring data, the model achieved mean test NSE (KGE) scores of 0.768 (0.861) for discharge and 0.626 (0.664) for NO₃–N load, substantially outperforming baselines. Attribution analysis further highlighted the importance of upstream inflow representation and graph-based spatial learning in capturing cross-subwatershed dependencies. The model also reproduced seasonal hydrological and biogeochemical patterns consistent with known processes, demonstrating its robustness and process fidelity for spatially distributed prediction. Altogether, HydroGraphNet advances the integration of physical knowledge and spatially explicit learning in hydrological modeling, offering a generalizable framework for distributed modeling to support spatially targeted water quality management in data-scarce watersheds.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2026

Consolidation and Permeability of the B1 and D1 Gas Hydrate Bearing Sands and Associated Seal Sediments of the Extended-Duration Gas Production Test Site on the Alaska North Slope

Gas hydrate, a solid combination of gas (mostly methane in nature) and water molecules stable at low temperatures and elevated pressures, occurs naturally in marine and permafrost-associated environments. Gas hydrate reservoirs, such as those in the Alaska North Slope, have been considered potential energy resources for gas production. To understand the petrophysical and geo-mechanical characteristics of the reservoir, core samples retrieved from the site of the JOGMEC-DOE-USGS collaborative gas hydrate R&D project have been analyzed in the laboratory for their hydraulic and mechanical properties. This paper focuses on both seal and reservoir samples associated with the B1 and D1 sands, which are evaluated for index properties (including porosity, grain size distribution, liquid and plastic limits, specific surface area, and specific gravity), consolidation, permeability, and water retention. Furthermore, the reservoir core samples were tested with pore-filling, laboratory-grown tetrahydrofuran hydrate, in order to assess reservoir behavior during gas production from hydrates. Under simulated in situ stress conditions, the seal and hydrate-free reservoir cores had a permeability anisotropy ratio of k h /k v = 3.0−5.0, and k h /k v = 2.4−3.0 for the reservoir tetrahydrofuran hydrate-bearing cores. The data suggest that depressurizing the reservoir to induce hydrate dissociation alters the reservoir effective permeability in three ways: permeabilities decrease due to porosity lost (e.g., the initial reservoir thickness can decrease by up to 5% upon 7 MPa depressurization), permeability increases due to the loss of solid hydrate in the pore space, and permeability anisotropy k h /k v decreases in response to the evolving pore-space geometry. We show that given the simulated in situ gas hydrate saturations (i.e., S h = 32% in core 7P-2E and S h = 21% in core 20P-4), gas production from the dissociation of tetrahydrofuran hydrate in the two tested cores results in a net increase in effective permeability and a decrease in k h /k v . This study highlights the importance of investigating seal and reservoir sediments and the impacts of depressurization on the porosity and permeability responses during production.

Geological materials↗
DOE OSTI2020

What Factors Drive the Changes in Water Withdrawals in the U.S. Agriculture and Food Manufacturing Industries between 1995 and 2010?

Climate change and increasing world population will directly impact the global food supply chain linkages. In the United States, agricultural production requires less irrigated water than before but it still accounts for a third of total water withdrawals. To better understand the evolution of its water use, we perform a structural decomposition analysis of water withdrawals across eight different crops and six livestock categories and differentiate the trends over 1995–2005 vs 2005–2010 to account for the role of the economic crisis in the second period. Based on USGS data, the results show that both periods experienced an overall decline in water withdrawals in the production of all crops except oilseeds. This trend is driven by a decrease in water intensity, reflecting greater efficiency of irrigation systems, and by reduced local per capita income in the second period. However, increased foreign demand for water-intensive sectors like oilseeds from NAFTA and Asian partners mitigated the decline. Results indicate also a decreasing water use in livestock production partially due to a shift from red to white meat consumption in the country. Arguably, recent tariff wars and border closures have greatly reduced the virtual water embodied in American exports.

29 ENERGY PLANNING, POLICY, AND ECONOMY↗
DOE OSTI2024

Modeling the Effects of Artificial Drainage on Agriculture-Dominated Watersheds Using a Fully Distributed Integrated Hydrology Model

In agriculture-dominated watersheds where natural drainage is poor, agricultural ditches (narrow engineered channels) and tile drains (perforated pipes) are widely employed to enhance surface and subsurface drainage, respectively. Despite their relatively small scale, these features exert substantial control over the hydro-biogeochemical function of watersheds and their effects need to be represented in the models. We introduce a novel strategy to incorporate the effects of artificial agricultural drainage into a fully distributed basin-scale integrated surface-subsurface hydrology models. In our approach, narrow agriculture ditches for surface drainage are resolved efficiently using ditch-aligned computational meshes that are hydrologically conditioned to ensure connectivity in the stream/ditch network. For tile drainage in the subsurface, we use the physically based Hooghoudt's drainage equation as a subgrid model and route the water drained through tiles to the nearest ditch. Without site-specific calibration, this model reproduced observed streamflow in the Portage River Watershed (>1,000 km 2 ) as recorded by a USGS gauge with good accuracy (normalized KGE = 0.81) and outperformed a calibrated SWAT model (normalized KGE = 0.68). Numerical experiments confirm that artificial drainage reduces surface inundations and effectively controls the water table. At the watershed scale, artificial drainage increases baseflow but has little effect on watershed discharges above the 90th percentile. The strong physical underpinnings and reduced need for calibration allow us to study the impacts of artificial drainage on distributed hydrological response in terms of fluxes and states and provide a platform for investigating watershed-scale nutrient transport.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2026

An Integrated Modeling Framework for Sediment Dynamics During Urban Flooding: Application to Hurricane Harvey in Houston

Floodwater can mobilize and redistribute large volumes of sediment from upland to downstream urban areas, threatening infrastructure, water quality, and ecosystem health. However, existing modeling approaches often fail to capture sediment dynamics in urban floodplains due to the lack of integration between upland hydrological processes and riverine sediment transport. This study presents the first integrated modeling framework that couples the Energy Exascale Earth System Model (E3SM) land component, which simulates runoff and hillslope erosion, with TELEMAC-GAIA, a two-dimensional hydrodynamic and sediment transport model. This framework enables the fully distributed, process-based simulation of high-resolution (as fine as 30 m) sediment dynamics from hillslopes to floodplains. Applied to a highly urbanized watershed in Houston during Hurricane Harvey, this framework reproduced observed water levels at 16 USGS gauges (median R 2 = 0.83 and KGE = 0.78), key sediment dynamics such as sediment transport and deposition processes, and reproduced spatial deposition patterns consistent with LiDAR-derived data. Based on the simulation, we estimate 8.0 million m 3 of event-scale sediment deposition, including 5.7 million m 3 trapped in the flood-control reservoirs and 2.3 million m 3 deposited along major channels and floodplains. Using a representative unit removal cost, this corresponds to an estimated dredging cost of $581 million for total deposition. These results provide a first-order, physically based quantification of Harvey-scale sediment impacts. This study provides a valuable tool for the holistic analysis of sediment dynamics triggered by extreme urban flooding, supporting flood-resilience planning. More broadly, it highlights the importance of integrating physically based hydrological processes for urban flooding and sediment research.

Hurricane Harvey↗
DOE OSTI2020

A higher-order finite element reactive transport model for unstructured and fractured grids

Abstract This work presents a new reactive transport framework that combines a powerful geochemistry engine with advanced numerical methods for flow and transport in subsurface fractured porous media. Specifically, the PhreeqcRM interface (developed by the USGS) is used to take advantage of a large library of equilibrium and kinetic aqueous and fluid-rock reactions, which has been validated by numerous experiments and benchmark studies. Fluid flow is modeled by the Mixed Hybrid Finite Element (FE) method, which provides smooth velocity fields even in highly heterogenous formations with discrete fractures. A multilinear Discontinuous Galerkin FE method is used to solve the multicomponent transport problem. This method is locally mass conserving and its second order convergence significantly reduces numerical dispersion. In terms of thermodynamics, the aqueous phase is considered as a compressible fluid and its properties are derived from a Cubic Plus Association (CPA) equation of state. The new simulator is validated against several benchmark problems (involving, e.g., Fickian and Nernst-Planck diffusion, isotope fractionation, advection-dispersion transport, and rock-fluid reactions) before demonstrating the expanded capabilities offered by the underlying FE foundation, such as high computational efficiency, parallelizability, low numerical dispersion, unstructured 3D gridding, and discrete fraction modeling.

58 GEOSCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2026

FFTSF: Revisiting Sub-Seasonal Streamflow Forecasting with Simple Feedforward Network

Accurate short-to-subseasonal streamflow forecasts are vital for water management, including flood preparedness, drought mitigation, hydropower scheduling, and ecosystem protection. However, extending a forecast beyond a few days remains challenging due to complexity of hydrological processes. While recent self-attention based transformer architectures such as iTransformer have gained traction in time-series forecasting, these models suffer from several critical limitations: (1) significant computational overhead that scales quadratically with sequence length, (2) vulnerability to overfitting on limited hydrological datasets, (3) degraded performance on long-horizon forecasts due to attention decay, and (4) excessive architectural complexity that hampers interpretability and operational deployment. In this study, we propose a simple Feedforward Time Series Forecasting (FFTSF) network that directly addresses these limitations through its lightweight architecture and long-range forecasting capabilities. We evaluate FFTSF across 178 USGS stream gauges spanning diverse climate regimes by forecasting lead times of 1-, 7-, 14-, and 30-days. Our results demonstrate that FFTSF achieves competitive performance at short lead times (NSE of 0.778 for 1-day forecasts) while substantially outperforming complex baselines at longer forecast period, achieving the highest NSE (0.271) at 30-day forecasts with greater robustness and stability. For 30-day forecasts, FFTSF achieves a 71% improvement over NLinear, 57% improvement over DLinear and 12% improvement over the computationally intensive iTransformer while requiring fewer computational resources. Our findings reveal that architectural complexity is not necessary for hydrological forecasting, demonstrating that well-designed simple models can outperform attention mechanisms for subseasonal streamflow forecasting. The computational efficiency and consistent long-range performance of FFTSF make it suitable for water management applications where reliable extended forecasts are essential.

Krishnan Kutty Ambika, Anukesh [ORNL] (ORCID:00000↗