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At least 73 records · Page 4
All sourcesNASA NTRSDOE OSTI
NASA NTRS1991

Satellite observations of variations in tropical cyclone convection caused by upper-tropospheric troughs

Satellite observations and numerical model results have been used to study the relationship between upper-tropospheric forcing and the oscillation of convection of tropical cyclones Florence (1988) and Irene (1981) during their mature stage over open warm oceans (SST greater than or equal to 26 C). It is suggested that the initiation and maintenance of intense convective outbreaks in tropical cyclones are related to the channeling and strengthening of their outflow by upper-tropospheric troughs. It is possible to enhance the convection in response to the outflow jet-induced import of eddy relative angular momentum and ascending motion associated with the thermally direct circulation. Both Florence and Irene are found to intensify after the onset of these convective episodes. It is also suggested that the cessation in the convection of the two tropical cyclones occurs when the upper-tropospheric troughs move near or over the tropical cyclones, resulting in the weakening of their outflow and the entrainment of dry upper-tropospheric air into their inner core.

Rodgers, Edward B.↗
NASA NTRSDate not supplied

Analyzing Optical Energy Behavior in Tropical Cyclones During Rapid Intensitication

Forecasting rapid intensification (RI) in tropical cyclones is an unpredictable task taken on by forecasters every year. Hurricane Laura made its way through the Gulf of Mexico in August 2020, undergoing RI on August 26, 2020 and strengthening from a category 1 hurricane to a category 4 hurricane in less than 18 hours. The goal of this project was to use data from the Geostationary Lightning Mapper (GLM) aboard the GOES-16 satellite to track lightning over the Western Hemisphere and investigate optical energy during this period of RI. Data was taken from the entire hurricane using a fixed area that captured Laura from 0000-2359 UTC on August 26 and using Python, the sum of the optical energy, average flash extent density (FED), and average flash area were investigated using time series plots to determine if there were any patterns before, during, and after RI. Variations at the beginning and end of RI point to a change in lightning behavior. Along with time series plots, investigating the distribution of values during RI may be a useful in determining if these parameters have any discernable pattern. Applying this methodology to a larger sample of tropical cyclones can provide a better understanding as to how these parameters vary during RI periods.

Kiahna Mollette↗
NASA NTRS2011

Observed Recent Trends in Tropical Cyclone Rainfall Over Major Ocean Basins

In this study, we use Tropical Rainfall Measuring Mission (TRMM) and Global Precipitation Climatology Project (GPCP) rainfall data together with historical storm track records to examine the trend of tropical cyclone (TC) rainfall in major ocean basins during recent decades (1980-2007). We find that accumulated total rainfall along storm tracks for all tropical cyclones shows a weak positive trend over the whole tropics. However, total rainfall associated with weak storms, and intense storms (Category 4-5) both show significant positive trends, while total rainfall associated with intermediate storms (Category1-3) show a significant negative trend. Storm intensity defined as total rain produced per unit storm also shows increasing trend for all storm types. Basin-wide, from the first half (1980-1993) to the second half (1994-2007) of the data period, the North Atlantic shows the pronounced increase in TC number and TC rainfall while the Northeast Pacific shows a significant decrease in all storm types. Except for the Northeast Pacific, all other major basins (North Atlantic, Northwest Pacific, Southern Oceans, and Northern Indian Ocean) show a significant increase in total number and rainfall amount in Category 4-5 storms. Overall, trends in TC rainfall in different ocean basins are consistent with long-term changes in the ambient large-scale environment, including SST, vertical wind shear, sea level pressure, mid-tropospheric humidity, and Maximum Potential Intensity (MPI). Notably the pronounced positive (negative) trend of TC rainfall in the North Atlantic (Northeast Pacific) appears to be related to the most (least) rapid increase in SST and MPI, and the largest decrease (increase) in vertical wind shear in the region, relative to other ocean basins.

Lau, K. M.↗
NASA NTRS1989

Upper-tropospheric influences on Western Pacific tropical cyclone intensity change as inferred from satellite ozone observations

The use of Nimbus-7 TOMS data to diagnose changes in tropical cyclone intensity is demonstrated. The relationship between upper-tropospheric environmental total ozone distribution and intensity for a tropical cyclone case study is examined. The climatological total ozone patterns are used to identify the upper-tropospheric features to differentiate between intensifying and nonintensifying Western Pacific tropical cyclones.

Rodgers, Edward B.↗
NASA NTRS2003

The Structural Changes of Tropical Cyclones Upon Interaction with Vertical Wind Shear

The Fourth Convection and Moisture Experiment (CAMEX-4) provided a unique opportunity to observe the distributions and document the roles of important atmospheric factors that impact the development of the core asymmetries and core structural changes of tropical cyclones embedded in vertical wind shear. The state-of-the-art instruments flown on the NASA DC-8 and ER-2, in addition to those on the NOAA aircraft, provided a unique set of observations that documented the core structure throughout the depth of the tropical cyclone. These data have been used to conduct a combined observational and modeling study using a state-of-the-art, high- resolution mesoscale model to examine the role of the environmental vertical wind shear in producing tropical cyclone core asymmetries, and the effects on the structure and intensity of tropical cyclones.The scientific objectives of this study were to obtain in situ measurements that would allow documentation of the physical mechanisms that influence the development of the asymmetric convection and its effect on the core structure of the tropical cyclone.

Ritchie, Elizabeth A.↗
NASA NTRS2010

Evolution of the Tropical Cyclone Integrated Data Exchange And Analysis System (TC-IDEAS)

The Tropical Cyclone Integrated Data Exchange and Analysis System (TC-IDEAS) is being jointly developed by the Jet Propulsion Laboratory (JPL) and the Marshall Space Flight Center (MSFC) as part of NASA's Hurricane Science Research Program. The long-term goal is to create a comprehensive tropical cyclone database of satellite and airborne observations, in-situ measurements and model simulations containing parameters that pertain to the thermodynamic and microphysical structure of the storms; the air-sea interaction processes; and the large-scale environment.

CloudSat↗
NASA NTRS2012

Communicating the Threat of a Tropical Cyclone to the Eastern Range

The 45th Weather Squadron (45 WS) has developed a tool to help visualize the Wind Speed Probability product from the National Hurricane Center (NHC) and to help communicate that information to space launch customers and decision makers at the 45th Space Wing (45 SW) and Kennedy Space Center (KSC) located in east central Florida. This paper reviews previous work and presents the new visualization tool, including initial feedback as well as the pros and cons. The NHC began issuing their Wind Speed Probability product for tropical cyclones publicly in 2006. The 45 WS uses this product to provide a threat assessment to 45 SW and KSC leadership for risk evaluations with an approaching tropical cyclone. Although the wind speed probabilities convey the uncertainty of a tropical cyclone well, communicating this information to customers is a challenge. The 45 WS continually strives to provide the wind speed probability information to customers in a context which clearly communicates the threat of a tropical cyclone. First, an intern from the Florida Institute of Technology (FIT) Atmospheric Sciences department, sponsored by Scitor Corporation, independently evaluated the NHC wind speed probability product. This work was later extended into a M.S. thesis at FIT, partially funded by Scitor Corporation and KSC. A second thesis at FIT further extended the evaluation partially funded by KSC. Using this analysis, the 45 WS categorized the probabilities into five probability interpretation categories: Very Low, Low, Moderate, High, and Very High. These probability interpretation categories convert the forecast probability and forecast interval into easily understood categories that are consistent across all ranges of probabilities and forecast intervals. As a follow-on project, KSC funded a summer intern to evaluate the human factors of the probability interpretation categories, which ultimately refined some of the thresholds. The 45 WS created a visualization tool to express the timing and risk for multiple locations in a single graphic. Preliminary results on an on-going project by FIT will be included in this paper. This project is developing a new method of assigning the probability interpretation categories and updating the evaluation of the performance of the NHC wind speed probability analysis.

Winters, Katherine A.↗
NASA NTRS1981

Tropical cyclone rainfall characteristics as determined from a satellite passive microwave radiometer

Data from the Electrically Scanning Microwave Radiometer on Nimbus-5 (ESMR-5) have been used to calculate total tropical cyclone Latent Heat Release (LHR) and rainfall parameters for over 70 satellite observations of 21 tropical cyclones during 1973, 1974, and 1975 in the North Pacific tropical ocean. The data were found to be useful in determining the rainfall characteristics of these storms and appear to be potentially useful in monitoring and making short-term prediction of their intensity. Case studies as well as composite studies indicate that the increase in the ESMR-5 derived LHR corresponds to storm intensification. It also appears that the ESMR-5 derived rainfall parameters can be used to detect the beginning of tropical cyclone intensification.

Rodgers, E. B.↗
NASA NTRS2002

Sensitivities of Tropical Cyclones to Surface Friction and the Coriolis Parameter in a 2-D Cloud-Resolving Model

The sensitivities to surface friction and the Coriolis parameter in tropical cyclogenesis are studied using an axisymmetric version of the Goddard cloud ensemble model. Our experiments demonstrate that tropical cyclogenesis can still occur without surface friction. However, the resulting tropical cyclone has very unrealistic structure. Surface friction plays an important role of giving the tropical cyclones their observed smaller size and diminished intensity. Sensitivity of the cyclogenesis process to surface friction. in terms of kinetic energy growth, has different signs in different phases of the tropical cyclone. Contrary to the notion of Ekman pumping efficiency, which implies a preference for the highest Coriolis parameter in the growth rate if all other parameters are unchanged, our experiments show no such preference.

Chao, Winston C.↗
NASA NTRS2016

A New Tropical Cyclone Dynamic Initialization Technique Using High Temporal and Spatial Density Atmospheric Motion Vectors and Airborne Field Campaign Data

Background: Initialization of tropical cyclones in numerical weather prediction (NWP) systems is a great challenge: Mass-wind field balance; Secondary circulation and heating; Asymmetries. There can be large adjustments in structure and intensity in the first 24 hours if the initial vortex is not in balance: Spurious gravity waves; Spin-up (model and physics). Existing mesoscale NWP model TC (Tropical Cyclone) initialization strategies: Bogus vortex, cold start from global analyses; 3DVAR or 4DVAR, possibly with synthetic observations; EnKF (Ensemble Kalman Filter); Dynamic initialization. Dynamic initialization allows vortex to have improved balance and physics spin-up at the initial time (e.g., Hendricks et al. 2013, 2011; Nguyen and Chen 2011; Fiorino and Warner 1981; Hoke and Anthes 1976). Himawari-8 geostationary satellite has capability of continuous imagery (10-minutes) over the full disk: New GOES-R satellites will have same capability. This will allow for unprecedented observations of tropical cyclones. However, current data assimila1on systems are not capable of ingesting such high temporal observations (Atmospheric Mo1on Vectors - AMVs). Hourly AMVs are produced, and thinned to 100-kilometer spacing in the horizontal. An entirely new data assimilation concept is required to utilize these observations.

remote sensing↗
NASA NTRS1981

Tropical cyclone intensity change. A quantitative forecasting scheme

One to two day future tropical cyclone intensity change from both a composite and an individual case point-of-view are discussed. Tropical cyclones occurring in the Gulf of Mexico during the period 1957-1977 form the primary data source. Weather charts of the NW Atlantic were initially examined, but few differences were found between intensifying and non-intensifying cyclones. A rawinsonde composite analysis detected composite differences in the 200 mb height fields, the 850 mb temperature fields, the 200 mb zonal wind and the vertical shears of the zonal wind. The individual cyclones which make up the composite study were then separately examined using this composite case knowledge. Similar parameter differences were found in a majority of individual cases. A cyclone intensity change forecast scheme was tested against independent storm cases. Correct predictions of intensification or non-intensification could be made approximately 75% of the time.

Dropco, K. M.↗
NASA NTRSDate not supplied

Estimating Tropical Cyclone Threats to Floating Rigs in the Gulf of Mexico

Offshore drilling operations in the Gulf of Mexico are particularly vulnerable during hurricane season. When a weather threat arises, a decision to evacuate the rig and/or move to a safe location may need to be made. Depending on the activities in progress at the time of the threat, securing the well, evacuating, and/or moving to a safe location can take a considerable amount of time. This transition time is called T-time. T-time is not only rig dependent, but also depends on the activity being performed at the time of the threat. For these reasons it is important to assess tropical cyclone threats and the time it takes for them to reach the rig location. The objective of this study is to use the available 50 years of past cyclone history to estimate cyclone threats at any location in the Gulf of Mexico. The cyclone threat is estimated based on the rig location as well as the start date and duration of the offshore activity. By threat, it is meant the likelihood that a specific location with an associated offshore activity would be exposed to an upcoming cyclone whose forecasted track cone and storm size lies within that location. Three representative rig locations in the Gulf of Mexico were selected as assessment sites to evaluate the threat of incoming cyclones for different T-times. To conduct this tropical cyclone study, an Excel spreadsheet tool was developed to automate the analysis of the tropical cyclone data from the Best Track Archive for Climate Stewardship (IBTrACS) Version 4. The spreadsheet tool allows the user to input any location (i.e., longitude and latitude) in the Gulf of Mexico and displays a list of historical cyclones that have passed within 150 nautical miles of that location during the activity period selected by the user. Also, the tool allows the user to input a T-time to assess the threat of cyclones that would not provide adequate time to secure the well, evacuate, and/or move to a safe location.

Risk↗
NASA NTRS1989

Satellite observations of tropical cyclones during the 1990's

Operational satellite advances expected in the area of tropical cyclone studies with the GOES I-M geosynchronous satellite and the polar orbiting NOAA K-M satellite are discussed. Major tropical cyclone quantities and processes and the required parameters are discussed, with emphasis on spatial and vertical resolution. The problem of insertions of satellite measurements into numerical models is addressed.

Shenk, William E.↗
NASA NTRS1996

Wind and pressure Fields Near Tropical Cyclone Oliver Derived From Scatterometer Observations

The results of this study demonstrate that the surface wind velocity and pressure fields derived from spaceborne scatterometers are useful in monitoring the location and intensity of tropical cyclones. Satellite-borne microwave scatterometers can penetrate the cloudy core regions of tropical cyclones to resolve the circulation in detail over data sparse regions. The location of the cyclone observed by the ERS-1 scatterometer is very close to that revealed in Geostationary Meteorological Satellite images. The surface winds provided by the ERS-1 scatterometer are used here with a modified two-layer planetary boundary layer model which includes effects of curvature, stability, and secondary flow to derive surface pressures near tropical cyclone Oliver. The curvature effect is found to be more significant than stability and secondary flow, which are crucial in deriving accurate surface pressure fields in midlatitudes.

Hsu, Carol S.↗
NASA NTRS1996

Wind and Pressure Fields Near Tropical Cyclone Oliver Derived from Scatterometer Observations

The results of this study demonstrate that the surface wind velocity and pressure fields derived from spaceborne scatterometers are useful in monitoring the location and intensity of tropical cyclones. Satellite-borne microwave scatterometers can penetrate the cloudy core regions of tropical cyclones to resolve the circulation in detail over data sparse regions. The location of the cyclone observed by the ERS-1 (First European Remote Sensing Satellite) scatterometer is very close to that revealed in Geostationary Meteorological Satellite images. The surface winds provided by the ERS-1 scatterometer are used here with a modified two-layer planetary boundary layer model which includes effects of curvature, stability, and secondary flow to derive surface pressures near tropical cyclone Oliver. The curvature effect is found to be more significant than stability and secondary flow, which are crucial in deriving accurate surface pressure fields in midlatitudes.

Hsu, Carol S.↗
NASA NTRS2013

How Well Do Global Climate Models Simulate the Variability of Atlantic Tropical Cyclones Associated with ENSO?

The variability of Atlantic tropical cyclones (TCs) associated with El Nino-Southern Oscillation (ENSO) in model simulations is assessed and compared with observations. The model experiments are 28-yr simulations forced with the observed sea surface temperature from 1982 to 2009. The simulations were coordinated by the U.S. CLIVAR Hurricane Working Group and conducted with five global climate models (GCMs) with a total of 16 ensemble members. The model performance is evaluated based on both individual model ensemble means and multi-model ensemble mean. The latter has the highest anomaly correlation (0.86) for the interannual variability of TCs. Previous observational studies show a strong association between ENSO and Atlantic TC activity, as well as distinctions in the TC activities during eastern Pacific (EP) and central Pacific (CP) El Nino events. The analysis of track density and TC origin indicates that each model has different mean biases. Overall, the GCMs simulate the variability of Atlantic TCs well with weaker activity during EP El Nino and stronger activity during La Nina. For CP El Nino, there is a slight increase in the number of TCs as compared with EP El Nino. However, the spatial distribution of track density and TC origin is less consistent among the models. Particularly, there is no indication of increasing TC activity over the U.S. southeast coastal region as in observations. The difference between the models and observations is likely due to the bias of vertical wind shear in response to the shift of tropical heating associated with CP El Nino, as well as the model bias in the mean circulation.

Tropical Cyclones↗
NASA NTRS2010

An Estimate of the North Atlantic Basin Tropical Cyclone Activity for the 2010 Hurricane Season

Estimates are presented for the tropical cyclone activity expected for the 2010 North Atlantic basin hurricane season. It is anticipated that the 2010 season will be more active than the 2009 season, reflecting increased frequencies more akin to that of the current more active phase that has been in vogue since 1995. Averages (+/- 1 sd) during the current more active phase are 14.5+/-4.7, 7.8+/-3.2, 3.7+/-1.8, and 2+/- 2, respectively, for the number of tropical cyclones (NTC), the number of hurricanes (NH), the number of major hurricanes (NMH), and the number of United States (U.S.) land-falling hurricanes (NUSLFH). Based on the "usual" behavior of the 10-yma parametric first differences, one expects NTC = 19+/-2, NH = 14+/-2, NMH = 7+/-2, and NUSLFH = 4+/-2 for the 2010 hurricane season; however, based on the "best guess" 10-yma values of surface-air temperature at the Armagh Observatory (Northern Ireland) and the Oceanic Nino Index, one expects NTC > or equals 16, NH > or equals 14, NMH > or equals 7, and NUSLFH > or equals 6.

Wilson, Robert M.↗
NASA NTRS2000

Objective Operational Utilization of Satellite Microwave Scatterometer Observations of Tropical Cyclones

This study has demonstrated that high-resolution scatterometer measurements in tropical cyclones and other high-marine surface wind regimes may be retrieved accurately for wind speeds up to about 35 mls (1-hour average at 10 m) when the scatterometer data are processed through a revised geophysical model function, and a spatial adaptive algorithm is applied which utilizes the fact that wind direction is so tightly constrained in tile inner core of severe marine storms that wind direction may be prescribed from conventional data. This potential is demonstrated through case studies with NSCAT data in a severe West Pacific Typhoon (Violet, 1996) and an intense North Atlantic hurricane (Lili, 1996). However, operational scatterometer winds from NSCAT and QuickScat in hurricanes and severe winter storms are biased low in winds above 25 m/s. We have developed an inverse model to specify the entire surface wind field about a tropical cyclone from operational QuickScat scatterometer measurements within 150 nm of a storm center with the restriction that only wind speeds up to 20 m/s are used until improved model function are introduced. The inverse model is used to specify the wind field over the entire life-cycle of Hurricane Floyd (1999) for use to drive an ocean wave model. The wind field compares very favorably with wind fields developed from the copious aircraft flight level winds obtained in this storm.

Cardone, Vincent J.↗