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At least 73 records · Page 4

Wildfire Emergency Response Hazard Extraction and Analysis of Trends (HEAT) through Natural Language Processing and Time Series

Emerging wildfire operations aim to improve safety and performance through the integration of technologies including UAS and UTM. Recent advances in natural language processing (NLP) techniques, as well as the availability of wildfire incident reports, has made possible a large-scale analysis of wildfire hazards and trends. Identifying longitudinal trends will help us target risk mitigation and safety management activities. Note: This presentation does not include sound please disregard icon.

Sequoia R. Andrade↗

A Decade of Salt Marsh Elevation Change in New York City’s Coastal Urban Parks

Coastal salt marshes of the eastern United States are particularly vulnerable to accelerated sea level rise, and urban marshes are at greater risk of erosion, inundation, and conversion to mudflat if left unmanaged. To guide New York City (NYC) salt marsh restoration strategies, NYC Parks collected up to 10 years of salt marsh elevation change data through 2020 at six salt marsh sites using the Surface Elevation Table-Marker Horizon (SET-MH) method, conducted a salt marsh trends analysis to determine shoreline change from 1974 to 2012, and conducted a salt marsh conditions assessment. We found that the citywide average surface elevation trend of 3.31 mm yr −1 was not significantly different from the 30-year (1990–2020) Relative Sea Level Rise of 4.23 mm yr −1 at The Battery, NY, tide station, probably due to high variability across and within sites. We also found that accretion rates differed across sites and watersheds, and sites situated lower in the tidal zone had higher accretion rates. Notably, Jamaica Bay’s Idlewild salt marsh, long suspected of being sediment-starved and ranking lowest in our conditions assessment, had the highest accretion rate at 9.5 mm yr −1 . Our salt marsh trends analysis also showed marsh loss at the shoreline edge, bare ground cover, and other indicators of marsh degradation. In mitigating marsh loss, the design grades for our recent wetland restoration projects enlarge the upper elevation ranges of the low- and high-marsh zones and incorporate wider and more gradual slopes in upland transition zones to enable inland marsh migration.

Salt marsh elevation change↗

Weight and the Future of Space Flight Hardware Cost Modeling

Weight has been used as the primary input variable for cost estimating almost as long as there have been parametric cost models. While there are good reasons for using weight, serious limitations exist. These limitations have been addressed by multi-variable equations and trend analysis in models such as NAFCOM, PRICE, and SEER; however, these models have not be able to address the significant time lags that can occur between the development of similar space flight hardware systems. These time lags make the cost analyst's job difficult because insufficient data exists to perform trend analysis, and the current set of parametric models are not well suited to accommodating process improvements in space flight hardware design, development, build and test. As a result, people of good faith can have serious disagreement over the cost for new systems. To address these shortcomings, new cost modeling approaches are needed. The most promising approach is process based (sometimes called activity) costing. Developing process based models will require a detailed understanding of the functions required to produce space flight hardware combined with innovative approaches to estimating the necessary resources. Particularly challenging will be the lack of data at the process level. One method for developing a model is to combine notional algorithms with a discrete event simulation and model changes to the total cost as perturbations to the program are introduced. Despite these challenges, the potential benefits are such that efforts should be focused on developing process based cost models.

Prince, Frank A.↗

Trend Quality Ozone from NPP OMPS: The Version 2 Processing

A version 2 processing of data from two ozone monitoring instruments on Suomi NPP, the OMPS nadir ozone mapper and the OMPS nadir ozone profiler, has now been completed. The previously released data were useful for many purposes but were not suitable for use in ozone trend analysis. In this processing, instrument artifacts have been identified and corrected, an improved scattered light correction and wavelength registration have been applied, and soft calibration techniques were implemented to produce a calibration consistent with data from the series of SBUV/2 instruments. The result is a high-quality ozone time series suitable for trend analysis. Total column ozone data from the OMPS nadir mapper now agree with data from the SBUV/2 instrument on NOAA 19 with a zonal average bias of −0.2 % over the 60° S to 60° N latitude zone. Differences are somewhat larger between OMPS nadir profiler and N19 total column ozone, with an average difference of −1.1 % over the 60° S to 60° N latitude zone and a residual seasonal variation of about 2 % at latitudes higher than about 50°. For the profile retrieval, zonal average ozone in the upper stratosphere (between 2.5 and 4 hPa) agrees with that from NOAA 19 within ±3 % and an average bias of −1.1 %. In the lower stratosphere (between 25 and 40 hPa) agreement is within ±3 % with an average bias of +1.1 %. Tropospheric ozone produced by subtracting stratospheric ozone measured by the OMPS limb profiler from total column ozone measured by the nadir mapper is consistent with tropospheric ozone produced by subtracting stratospheric ozone from MLS from total ozone from the OMI instrument on Aura. The agreement of tropospheric ozone is within 10 % in most locations.

OMPS nadir ozone mapper↗

USA Crop Yield Estimation with MODIS NDVI: Are Remotely Sensed Models Better Than Simple Trend Analyses?

Crop yield forecasting is performed monthly during the growing season by the United States Department of Agriculture’s National Agricultural Statistics Service. The underpinnings are long-established probability surveys reliant on farmers’ feedback in parallel with biophysical measurements. Over the last decade though, satellite imagery from the Moderate Resolution Imaging Spectroradiometer (MODIS) has been used to corroborate the survey information. This is facilitated through the Global Inventory Modeling and Mapping Studies/Global Agricultural Monitoring system, which provides open access to pertinent real-time normalized difference vegetation index (NDVI) data. Hence, two relatively straightforward MODIS-based modeling methods are employed operationally. The first model constitutes mid-season timing based on the maximum peak NDVI value, while the second is reflective of late-season timing by integrating accumulated NDVI over a threshold value. Corn model results nationally show the peak NDVI method provides a R^(2) of 0.88 and a coefficient of variation (CV) of 3.5%. The accumulated method, using an optimally derived 0.58 NDVI threshold, improves the performance to 0.93 and 2.7%, respectively. Both these models outperform simple trend analysis, which is 0.48 and 7.4%, correspondingly. For soybeans the R^(2) results of the peak NDVI model are 0.62, and 0.73 for the accumulated using a 0.56 threshold. CVs are 6.8% and 5.7%, respectively. Spring wheat’s R2performance with the accumulated NDVI model is 0.60 but just 0.40 with peak NDVI. The soybean and spring wheat models perform similarly to trend analysis. Winter wheat and upland cotton show poor model performance, regardless of method. Ultimately, corn yield forecasting derived from MODIS imagery is robust, and there are circumstances when forecasts for soybeans and spring wheat have merit too.

crop yield↗

Total Ozone Trends from 1979 to 2016 Derived from Five Merged Observational Datasets - The Emergence into Ozone Recovery

We report on updated trends using different merged datasets from satellite and ground-based observations for the period from 1979 to 2016. Trends were determined by applying a multiple linear regression (MLR) to annual mean zonal mean data. Merged datasets used here include NASA MOD v8.6 and National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA) merge v8.6, both based on data from the series of Solar Backscatter UltraViolet (SBUV) and SBUV-2 satellite instruments (1978–present) as well as the Global Ozone Monitoring Experiment (GOME)-type Total Ozone (GTO) and GOME-SCIAMACHY-GOME-2 (GSG) merged datasets (1995-present), mainly comprising satellite data from GOME, the Scanning Imaging Absorption Spectrometer for Atmospheric Chartography (SCIAMACHY), and GOME-2A. The fifth dataset consists of the monthly mean zonal mean data from ground-based measurements collected at World Ozone and UV Data Center (WOUDC). The addition of four more years of data since the last World Meteorological Organization (WMO) ozone assessment (2013-2016) shows that for most datasets and regions the trends since the stratospheric halogen reached its maximum (approximately 1996 globally and approximately 2000 in polar regions) are mostly not significantly different from zero. However, for some latitudes, in particular the Southern Hemisphere extratropics and Northern Hemisphere subtropics, several datasets show small positive trends of slightly below +1 percent decade(exp. -1) that are barely statistically significant at the 2 Sigma uncertainty level. In the tropics, only two datasets show significant trends of +0.5 to +0.8 percent(exp.-1), while the others show near-zero trends. Positive trends since 2000 have been observed over Antarctica in September, but near-zero trends are found in October as well as in March over the Arctic. Uncertainties due to possible drifts between the datasets, from the merging procedure used to combine satellite datasets and related to the low sampling of ground-based data, are not accounted for in the trend analysis. Consequently, the retrieved trends can be only considered to be at the brink of becoming significant, but there are indications that we are about to emerge into the expected recovery phase. However, the recent trends are still considerably masked by the observed large year-to-year dynamical variability in total ozone.

column ozone trends↗

Real Time On-line Space Research Laboratory Environment Monitoring with Off-line Trend and Prediction Analysis

One of the responsibilities of the NASA Glenn Principal Investigator Microgravity Services is to support NASA sponsored investigators in the area of reduced-gravity acceleration data analysis, interpretation and the monitoring of the reduced-gravity environment on-board various carriers. With the International Space Station currently operational, a significant amount of acceleration data is being down-linked and processed on ground for both the space station onboard environment characterization (and verification) and scientific experiments. Therefore, to help principal investigator teams monitor the acceleration level on-board the International Space Station to avoid undesirable impact on their experiment, when possible, the NASA Glenn Principal Investigator Microgravity Services developed an artificial intelligence monitoring system, which detects in near real time any change in the environment susceptible to affect onboard experiments. The main objective of the monitoring system is to help research teams identify the vibratory disturbances that are active at any instant of time onboard the International Space Station that might impact the environment in which their experiment is being conducted. The monitoring system allows any space research scientist, at any location and at any time, to see the current acceleration level on-board the Space Station via the World Wide Web. From the NASA Glenn s Exploration Systems Division web site, research scientists can see in near real time the active disturbances, such as pumps, fans, compressor, crew exercise, re-boost, extra-vehicular activity, etc., and decide whether or not to continue operating or stopping (or making note of such activity for later correlation with science results) their experiments based on the g-level associated with that specific event. A dynamic graphical display accessible via the World Wide Web shows the status of all the vibratory disturbance activities with their degree of confidence as well as their g-level contribution to the environment. The system can detect both known and unknown vibratory disturbance activities. It can also perform trend analysis and prediction by analyzing past data over many Increments of the space station for selected disturbance activities. This feature can be used to monitor the health of onboard mechanical systems to detect and prevent potential system failure as well as for use by research scientists during their science results analysis. Examples of both real time on-line vibratory disturbance detection and off-line trend analysis are presented in this paper. Several soft computing techniques such as Kohonen s Self-Organizing Feature Map, Learning Vector Quantization, Back-Propagation Neural Networks, and Fuzzy Logic were used to design the system.

Jules, Kenol↗

Temporal trends and transport within and around the Antarctic polar vortex during the formation of the 1987 Antarctic ozone hole

During AAOE in 1987 an ER-2 high altitude aircraft made twelve flights out of Punta Arenas, Chile (53 S, 71 W) into the Antarctic polar vortex. The aircraft was fitted with fast response instruments for in situ measurements of many trace species including O3, ClO, BrO, NO sub y, NO, H2O, and N2O. Grab samples of long-lived tracers were also taken and a scanning microwave radiometer measured temperatures above and below the aircraft. Temperature, pressure, and wind measurements were also made on the flight tracks. Most of these flights were flown to 72 S, at a constant potential temperature, followed by a dip to a lower altitude and again assuming a sometimes different potential temperature for the return leg. The potential temperature chosen was 425 K (17 to 18 km) on 12 of the flight legs, and 5 of the flight legs were flown at 450 K (18 to 19 km). The remaining 7 legs of the 12 flights were not flown on constant potential temperature surfaces. Tracer data have been analyzed for temporal trends. Data from the ascents out of Punta Arenas, the constant potential temperature flight legs, and the dips within the vortex are used to compare tracer values inside and outside the vortex, both with respect to constant potential temperature and constant N2O. The time trend during the one-month period of August 23 through September 22, 1987, shows that ozone decreased by 50 percent or more at altitudes form 15 to 19 km. This trend is evident whether analyzed with respect to constant potential temperature or constant N2O. The trend analysis for ozone outside the vortex shows no downward trend during this period. The analysis for N2O at a constant potential temperature indicates no significant trend either inside or outside the vortex; however, a decrease in N2O with an increase in latitude is evident.

Proffitt, M. H.↗

MUlti-SpEctral, MUlti-SpEcies, MUlti-SatEllite (MUSES) Retrieval Algorithm: Towards Extending Multi-Decadal NASA EOS Atmospheric Composition Data Records

Multi-Spectra, Multi-Species, Multi-Sensors (MUSES): Builds off of heritage from the Tropospheric Emission Spectrometer (TES) optimal estimation (OE) algorithm to combine a priori and satellite data, including rigorous error analysis diagnostics and observation operators needed for trend analysis, climate model evaluation, and data assimilation; has generic design to incorporate forward model radiances from hyperspectral measurements from multiple sensors into the joint retrieval algorithm.

Fu, Dejian↗

Changes in Extratropical Storm Track Cloudiness 1983-2008: Observational Support for a Poleward Shift

Climate model simulations suggest that the extratropical storm tracks will shift poleward as a consequence of global warming. In this study the northern and southern hemisphere storm tracks over the Pacific and Atlantic ocean basins are studied using observational data, primarily from the International Satellite Cloud Climatology Project, ISCCP. Potential shifts in the storm tracks are examined using the observed cloud structures as proxies for cyclone activity. Different data analysis methods are employed, with the objective to address difficulties and uncertainties in using ISCCP data for regional trend analysis. In particular, three data filtering techniques are explored; excluding specific problematic regions from the analysis, regressing out a spurious viewing geometry effect, and excluding specific cloud types from the analysis. These adjustments all, to varying degree, moderate the cloud trends in the original data but leave the qualitative aspects of those trends largely unaffected. Therefore, our analysis suggests that ISCCP data can be used to interpret regional trends in cloudiness, provided that data and instrumental artefacts are recognized and accounted for. The variation in magnitude between trends emerging from application of different data correction methods, allows us to estimate possible ranges for the observational changes. It is found that the storm tracks, here represented by the extent of the midlatitude-centered band of maximum cloud cover over the studied ocean basins, experience a poleward shift as well as a narrowing over the 25 year period covered by ISCCP. The observed magnitudes of these effects are larger than in current generation climate models (CMIP3). The magnitude of the shift is particularly large in the northern hemisphere Atlantic. This is also the one of the four regions in which imperfect data primarily prevents us from drawing firm conclusions. The shifted path and reduced extent of the storm track cloudiness is accompanied by a regional reduction in total cloud cover. This decrease in cloudiness can primarily be ascribed to low level clouds, whereas the upper level cloud fraction actually increases, according to ISCCP. Independent satellite observations of radiative fluxes at the top of the atmosphere are consistent with the changes in total cloud cover. The shift in cloudiness is also supported by a shift in central position of the mid-troposphere meridional temperature gradient. We do not find support for aerosols playing a significant role in the satellite observed changes in cloudiness. The observed changes in storm track cloudiness can be related to local cloud-induced changes in radiative forcing, using ERBE and CERES radiative fluxes. The shortwave and the longwave components are found to act together, leading to a positive (warming) net radiative effect in response to the cloud changes in the storm track regions, indicative of positive cloud feedback. Among the CMIP3 models that simulate poleward shifts in all four storm track areas, all but one show decreasing cloud amount on a global mean scale in response to increased CO2 forcing, further consistent with positive cloud feedback. Models with low equilibrium climate sensitivity to a lesser extent than higher-sensitivity models simulate a poleward shift of the storm tracks.

Bender, Frida A-M.↗

Nimbus-7 Earth radiation budget calibration history. Part 1: The solar channels

The Earth Radiation Budget (ERB) experiment on the Nimbus-7 satellite measured the total solar irradiance plus broadband spectral components on a nearly daily basis from 16 Nov. 1978, until 16 June 1992. Months of additional observations were taken in late 1992 and in 1993. The emphasis is on the electrically self calibrating cavity radiometer, channel 10c, which recorded accurate total solar irradiance measurements over the whole period. The spectral channels did not have inflight calibration adjustment capabilities. These channels can, with some additional corrections, be used for short-term studies (one or two solar rotations - 27 to 60 days), but not for long-term trend analysis. For channel 10c, changing radiometer pointing, the zero offsets, the stability of the gain, the temperature sensitivity, and the influences of other platform instruments are all examined and their effects on the measurements considered. Only the question of relative accuracy (not absolute) is examined. The final channel 10c product is also compared with solar measurements made by independent experiments on other satellites. The Nimbus experiment showed that the mean solar energy was about 0.1 percent (1.4 W/sqm) higher in the excited Sun years of 1979 and 1991 than in the quiet Sun years of 1985 and 1986. The error analysis indicated that the measured long-term trends may be as accurate as +/- 0.005 percent. The worse-case error estimate is +/- 0.03 percent.

Kyle, H. Lee↗

Analysis of launch site processing effectiveness for the Space Shuttle 26R payload

A trend analysis study has been performed on problem reports recorded during the Space Shuttle 26R payload's processing cycle at NASA-Kennedy, using the defect-flow analysis (DFA) methodology; DFA gives attention to the characteristics of the problem-report 'population' as a whole. It is established that the problem reports contain data which distract from pressing problems, and that fully 60 percent of such reports were caused during processing at NASA-Kennedy. The second major cause of problem reports was design defects.

Flores, Carlos A.↗

Review of AIDS development

The operation and implementation of the aircraft integrated data system AIDS are described. The system is described as an engineering tool with strong emphasis on analysis of recorded information. The AIDS is primarily directed to the monitoring of parameters related to: the safety of the flight; the performance of the aircraft; the performance of the flight guidance system; and the performance and condition of the engines. The system provide short term trend analysis on a trend chart that is updated by the flight engineer on every flight that lasts more than 4 flight hours. Engine data prints are automatically presented during take-off and in the case of limit excedance, e.g., the print shows an automatically reported impending hotstarts on engine nr. 1. Other significant features are reported.

Vermeulen, H. C.↗

Natural and Anthropogenic Aerosol Trends from Satellite and Surface Observations and Model Simulations over the North Atlantic Ocean from 2002 to 2012

Aerosols contribute to Earths radiative budget both directly and indirectly, and large uncertainties remain in quantifying aerosol effects on climate. Variability in aerosol distribution and properties, as might result from changing emissions and transport processes, must be characterized. In this study, variations in aerosol loading across the eastern seaboard of theUnited States and theNorthAtlanticOcean during 2002 to 2012 are analyzed to examine the impacts of anthropogenic emission control measures using monthly mean data from MODIS, AERONET, and IMPROVE observations and Goddard Chemistry Aerosol Radiation and Transport (GOCART) model simulation.MODIS observes a statistically significant negative trend in aerosol optical depth (AOD) over the midlatitudes (-0.030 decade(sup-1)). Correlation analyses with surface AOD from AERONET sites in the upwind region combined with trend analysis from GOCART component AOD confirm that the observed decrease in the midlatitudes is chiefly associated with anthropogenic aerosols that exhibit significant negative trends from the eastern U.S. coast extending over the western North Atlantic. Additional analysis of IMPROVE surface PM(sub 2.5) observations demonstrates statistically significant negative trends in the anthropogenic components with decreasing mass concentrations over the eastern United States. Finally, a seasonal analysis of observational datasets is performed. The negative trend seen by MODIS is strongest during spring (MAM) and summer (JJA) months. This is supported by AERONET seasonal trends and is identified from IMPROVE seasonal trends as resulting from ammonium sulfate decreases during these seasons.

Jongeward, Andrew R.↗

Satellite-Based Evidence for Shrub and Graminoid Tundra Expansion in Northern Quebec from 1986-2010

Global vegetation models predict rapid poleward migration of tundra and boreal forest vegetation in response to climate warming. Local plot and air-photo studies have documented recent changes in high-latitude vegetation composition and structure, consistent with warming trends. To bridge these two scales of inference, we analyzed a 24-year (1986-2010) Landsat time series in a latitudinal transect across the boreal forest-tundra biome boundary in northern Quebec province, Canada. This region has experienced rapid warming during both winter and summer months during the last forty years. Using a per-pixel (30 m) trend analysis, 30% of the observable (cloud-free) land area experienced a significant (p < 0.05) positive trend in the Normalized Difference Vegetation Index (NDVI). However, greening trends were not evenly split among cover types. Low shrub and graminoid tundra contributed preferentially to the greening trend, while forested areas were less likely to show significant trends in NDVI. These trends reflect increasing leaf area, rather than an increase in growing season length, because Landsat data were restricted to peak-summer conditions. The average NDVI trend (0.007/yr) corresponds to a leaf-area index (LAI) increase of ~0.6 based on the regional relationship between LAI and NDVI from the Moderate Resolution Spectroradiometer (MODIS). Across the entire transect, the area-averaged LAI increase was ~0.2 during 1986-2010. A higher area-averaged LAI change (~0.3) within the shrub-tundra portion of the transect represents a 20-60% relative increase in LAI during the last two decades. Our Landsat-based analysis subdivides the overall high-latitude greening trend into changes in peak-summer greenness by cover type. Different responses within and among shrub, graminoid, and tree-dominated cover types in this study indicate important fine-scale heterogeneity in vegetation growth. Although our findings are consistent with community shifts in low-biomass vegetation types over multi-decadal time scales, the response in tundra and forest ecosystems to recent warming was not uniform.

McManus, K. M.↗

Jemez Pueblo Agriculture: Monitoring Rangeland Conditions to Inform Drought and Land Management in New Mexico

The Jemez Pueblo, a community located in the semi-arid high desert region of northcentral New Mexico, faces challenges with drought mitigation and livestock management. NASA DEVELOP partnered with the Pueblo of Jemez Natural Resources Department and The Nature Conservancy to provide recent and historical rangeland conditions to aid present decision-making, which relies on cultural practices, site familiarity, available resources, and physical data. This partnership offers the opportunity to support management practices by leveraging remote sensing and virtual fencing technologies. Our project explored Rangeland Analysis Platform (RAP) products incorporating NASA Earth observation Landsat 5 TM, Landsat 7 ETM+, Landsat 8 OLI, and Landsat 9 OLI-2 remote-sensed imagery as an agricultural land management tool. We performed linear regression analysis to evaluate RAP data to field data and explored RAP annual herbaceous biomass, ground cover trends, and climatic factors at the pasture level. We then computed study area summary statistics, performed pixel-by-pixel trend analysis across the study period, and evaluated ground cover trends near water sources. Based on available data, RAP was poorly correlated to bare ground and herbaceous biomass, generally underestimating the former and overestimating the latter. To improve the evaluation of RAP products, we suggest increasing the spatiotemporal distribution of the field dataset. According to RAP, from 1986 to 2023, the site became hotter and drier, bare ground increased, and annual forbs and grasses increased while perennials decreased. RAP products did not agree with field-collected data; however, the trends over time may be useful for informing rangeland management actions.

cattle grazing management↗

NCA-LDAS: Overview and Analysis of Hydrologic Trends for the National Climate Assessment

Terrestrial hydrologic trends over the conterminous United States are estimated for 1980-47 2015 using the National Climate Assessment-Land Data Assimilation System (NCA-LDAS) reanalysis. NCA-LDAS employs the uncoupled Noah Version 3.3 land surface model at 0.125 degreesx0.125 degrees forced with NLDAS-2 meteorology, rescaled Climate Prediction Center precipitation, and assimilated satellite-based soil moisture, snow depth and irrigation products. Mean annual trends are reported using the nonparametric Mann-Kendall test at p<0.1 significance. Results illustrate the interrelationship between regional gradients in forcing trends, and trends in other land energy and water stores and fluxes. Mean precipitation trends range from +3 to +9 mm/yr in the Upper Great Plains and Northeast to -1 to -9 in the West and South; net radiation flux trends range from +0.05 to +0.20 W/m(exp2)/yr in the East to -0.05 to -0.20 in the West; U.S.-wide temperature trends average about +0.03K/yr. Trends in soil moisture, snow cover, latent and sensible heat fluxes and runoff are consistent with forcings, contributing to increasing evaporative fraction trends from West to East. Evaluation of NCA-LDAS trends compared to independent data indicates mixed results. The RMSE of U.S.-wide trends in number of snow cover days improved from 3.13 to 2.89 days/yr while trend detection increased 11%; Trends in latent heat flux were hardly affected, RMSE decreasing only 0.17 to 0.16 W/m(exp 2)/yr, while trend detection increased 2%; NCA-LDAS runoff trends degraded significantly from 2.6 to 16.1 mm/yr while trend detection was unaffected. Analysis also indicated that NCA-LDAS exhibits relatively more skill in low precipitation station density areas, suggesting there are limits to the effectiveness of satellite data assimilation in densely gaged regions. Overall, NCA-LDAS demonstrates capability for quantifying physically consistent, U.S. hydrologic climate trends over the satellite era.

Snow depth↗