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At least 73 records · Page 4

Continuous-energy eigenvalue sensitivity coefficient calculations in TSUNAMI-3D

Two methods for calculating eigenvalue sensitivity coefficients in continuous-energy Monte Carlo applications were implemented in the KENO code within the SCALE code package. The methods were used to calculate sensitivity coefficients for several test problems and produced sensitivity coefficients that agreed well with both reference sensitivities and multigroup TSUNAMI-3D sensitivity coefficients. The newly developed CLUTCH method was observed to produce sensitivity coefficients with high figures of merit and a low memory footprint, and both continuous-energy sensitivity methods met or exceeded the accuracy of the multigroup TSUNAMI-3D calculations. (authors)

97 MATHEMATICS AND COMPUTING↗

Automated Direct Perturbation Calculations with SCALE TSUNAMI [Abstract]

In nuclear criticality safety analysis, the sensitivity of the eigenvalue keff to uncertainties in nuclear data and its evaluation are crucial. The TSUNAMI sequences within the SCALE code system offer users various options with both multigroup (MG) and continuous-energy (CE) 3D Monte Carlo (MC) transport capabilities for calculating keff sensitivity coefficients and storing them in a sensitivity data file (SDF). Each methodology available in TSUNAMI offers distinct advantages and limitations, and its effectiveness can vary based on the specific problem being solved. As a best practice, practitioners typically use the direct perturbation (DP) method as a confirmatory step alongside their sensitivity calculations to verify the accuracy of the sensitivity data generated. In this process, DP calculations are usually performed on select nuclides, those considered most important for validating their total sensitivities. However, because of code limitations, analysts use a workaround method when conducting DP calculations for a single nuclide: rather than perturbing the nuclide's microscopic cross section, an equivalent number density for this nuclide is calculated to reflect the effect of a change in the macroscopic cross section due to a perturbation in the microscopic cross section. The current approach requires rerunning the CSAS criticality calculation several times with model changes. Although this method can yield results with acceptable accuracy, it is labor-intensive and prone to errors.

AZURE: SAMMY↗

Air-coupled tsunamis generated from impacts and airbursts: Our understanding before Hunga-Tonga Hunga-Ha'apai

The effort to prevent or mitigate the effects of an impact on Earth is known as planetary defense. A significant component of planetary defense research involves risk assessment. Much of our understanding of the risk from near-Earth objects comes from the geologic record in the form of impact craters, but not all asteroid impacts are crater-forming events. Small asteroids explode before reaching the surface, generating an airburst, and most impacts into the ocean do not penetrate the water to form a crater in the sea floor. The risk from these non-crater-forming ocean impacts and airbursts is difficult to quantify and represents a significant uncertainty in our assessment of the overall threat. We are currently working to better understand impact scenarios that can generate dangerous tsunamis.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

Real-Time Bayesian Inference at Extreme Scale: A Digital Twin for Tsunami Early Warning Applied to the Cascadia Subduction Zone

We present a Bayesian inversion-based digital twin that employs acoustic pressure data from seafloor sensors, along with 3D coupled acoustic–gravity wave equations, to infer earthquake-induced spatiotemporal seafloor motion in real time and forecast tsunami propagation toward coastlines for early warning with quantified uncertainties. Our target is the Cascadia subduction zone, with one billion parameters. Computing the posterior mean alone would require 50 years on a 512 GPU machine. Instead, exploiting the shift invariance of the parameter-to-observable map and devising novel parallel algorithms, we induce a fast offline–online decomposition. The offline component requires just one adjoint wave propagation per sensor; using MFEM, we scale this part of the computation to the full El Capitan system (43,520 GPUs) with 92% weak parallel efficiency. Moreover, given real-time data, the online component exactly solves the Bayesian inverse and forecasting problems in 0.2 seconds on a modest GPU system, a ten-billion-fold speedup.

97 MATHEMATICS AND COMPUTING↗

Tsunami Early-Warning CubeSat Design Reference Mission (DRM)

Global constellation for near real-time detection, characterization, and warning of dangerous tsunami; detection and evaluation of large earthquakes and volcanic eruptions; and study and continuous monitoring of the ionosphere and climate change.

Tsunami, GNSS-R, CubeSats, Ionosphere, Climate Cha↗

Scour Estimation for Tsunami at Bridges

The potential hazard to bridges from a tsunami event may include inundation hazard to the traffic, force effect on the structure, erosion of the foundation caused by hydraulic load on soils or rocks, and erosion of the approach. This study uses a laboratory-validated hybrid numerical scheme that combines Computational Fluid Dynamics (CFD) with sediment transport analysis to provide a practical evaluation method for scour depth at bridge foundations

58 GEOSCIENCES↗

Sea level and tsunamis

Spacecraft and satellite observations by high resolution optical photography or radar imagery to obtain information about wave coupling mechanism for predicting height of tsunamis

SATELLITE-BORNE RADAR↗

Arroyo el Mimbral, Mexico, K/T unit: Origin as debris flow/turbidite, not a tsunami deposit

Coarse, spherule-bearing, elastic units have been discovered at 10 marine sites that span the K/T boundary in northeastern Mexico. We examined one of the best exposed sites in Arroyo el Mimbral, northwest of Tampico. The Mimbral outcrop displays a layered elastic unit up to 3 m thick enclosed by marly limestones of the Mendez (Latest Maastrichian) and Velasco (Earliest Danian) Formations. At its thickest point, this channelized elastic unit is comprised of 3 subunits: (1) a basal, poorly-sorted, ungraded calcareous spherule bed 1 m thick containing relict impact glass and shocked mineral grains, (2) a massive set of laminated calcite-cemented sandstones up to 2 m thick with plant debris at its base, (3) capped by a thin (up to 20 cm) set of rippled sandstone layers separated by silty mudstone drapes containing a small (921 pg/g) iridium anomaly. This tripartite elastic unit is conformably overlain by marls of the Velasco Formation. We also visited the La Lajilla site east of Ciudad Victoria; its stratigraphy is similar to Mimbral's, but its elastic beds are thinner and less extensive laterally. The Mimbral elastic unit has been interpreted previously as being deposited by a megawave or tsunami produced by an asteroid impact on nearby Yucatan (Chicxulub crater). However, a presumed 400-m paleodepth of water at the Mimbral site, channeling of the spherule subunit into the underlying Mendez Formation marls, and the overtopping of the basal, spherule-bearing subunit by the laminated sandstone subunit, all suggest a combined debris flow/turbidite origin for this elastic unit similar to that proposed for Upper Pleistocene sand/silt beds occurring elsewhere in the Gulf of Mexico. In this latter model, the sediment source region for the elastic unit is the lower continental shelf and slope escarpment. For the K/T unit at Mimbral, we propose that thick ejecta blanket deposits composed mostly of spherules were rapidly loaded onto the lower shelf and slope from an impact-generated ejecta curtain.

Bohor, Bruce F.↗

Tsunami Waves Extensively Resurfaced the Shorelines of an Early Martian Ocean

Viking image-based mapping of a widespread deposit covering most of the northern low-lands of Mars led to the proposal by Parker et al. that the deposit represents the vestiges of an enormous ocean that existed approx. 3.4 Ga. Later identified as the Vastitas Borealis Formation, the latest geologic map of Mars identifies this deposit as the Late Hesperian lowland unit (lHl). This deposit is typically bounded by raised lobate margins. In addition, some margins have associated rille channels, which could have been produced sub-aerially by the back-wash of high-energy tsunami waves. Radar-sounding data indicate that the deposit is ice-rich. However, until now, the lack of wave-cut shoreline features and the presence of lobate margins have remained an im-pediment to the acceptance of the paleo-ocean hypothesis.

Vastitas Borealis Formation↗

A New CE TSUNAMI-3D Capability for Calculating Undersampling Metrics and Biases

This study investigates the viability of several statistical metrics for predicting the undersampling biases in continuous-energy (CE) Monte Carlo transport simulation tally estimates. Undersampling is a phenomenon in which a Monte Carlo simulation fails to use enough particles per generation to adequately sample fission points in all regions of a problem, resulting in biases in tally estimates that are much larger than the statistical uncertainties, potentially leading to erroneous conclusions regarding system performance and safety. Previous work found that biases due to undersampling could be as large as several hundred per cent mille (pcm) for eigenvalue estimates and up to tens or hundreds of percent for flux tally estimates. This paper documents the encapsulation of undersampling metrics within CE TSUNAMI-3D in the SCALE code system and examines the correlation between the various undersampling metric scores and the magnitude of various undersampling biases. Of the metrics examined, the RHW metric, the Tally Entropy metric, and the uncertainty in the scores for these metrics produce scores that correlated well with the fraction of the undersampling biases in various eigenvalue, flux, and energy-integrated reaction rate tallies in an infinitely reflected model of a PWR fuel assembly. The average number of nonzero scores per generation encountered by a tally was also found to show promise at predicting the magnitude of undersampling biases, and it also found use in detecting and filtering extremely undersampled tallies in the application of the other metrics. Future work will strengthen these conclusions by improving the degree of convergence for the examined tally and undersampling bias estimates, apply these metrics to a more broad variety of systems, and investigate variance reduction approaches for mitigating undersampling in Monte Carlo tally estimates. (authors)

42 ENGINEERING↗

CONTINUOUS-ENERGY MONTE CARLO METHODS FOR CALCULATING GENERALIZED RESPONSE SENSITIVITIES USING TSUNAMI-3D

This work introduces a new approach for calculating sensitivity coefficients for generalized neutronic responses to nuclear data uncertainties using continuous-energy Monte Carlo methods. The approach presented in this paper, known as the GEAR-MC method, allows for the calculation of generalized sensitivity coefficients for multiple responses in a single Monte Carlo calculation with no nuclear data perturbations or knowledge of nuclear covariance data. The theory behind the GEAR-MC method is presented here, and proof of principle is demonstrated by using the GEAR-MC method to calculate sensitivity coefficients for responses in several 3D, continuous-energy Monte Carlo applications.

CLUTCH↗