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All sourcesNASA NTRSDOE OSTI
NASA NTRSDate not supplied

Validation Testing and Statistical Analysis of the Rotary Tumbler Fabric Abrasion Method

The Artemis space suit glove environmental protection garment (EPG) will be the first line of protection used to shield the crewmember’s hands from the environments encountered during extravehicular activity (EVA). As the Artemis missions will include more extreme environments than those experienced on the International Space Station, development, verification, and validation of gloves requires the development of new test methods. A previous paper focused on the development of a test procedure to characterize lunar EVA glove fabrics using ASTM standardized test methods and the design and validation of a new standardized test procedure for comparing abrasion resistance between fabrics using a dust and rock filled rotary tumbler. Preliminary results of testing were presented in that paper. This paper reports on the validation testing and statistical analysis of the newly developed tumbler abrasion test method.

Robert J Jones↗
DOE OSTI2014

Multileaf collimator performance monitoring and improvement using semiautomated quality control testing and statistical process control

Purpose: High-quality radiation therapy using highly conformal dose distributions and image-guided techniques requires optimum machine delivery performance. In this work, a monitoring system for multileaf collimator (MLC) performance, integrating semiautomated MLC quality control (QC) tests and statistical process control tools, was developed. The MLC performance monitoring system was used for almost a year on two commercially available MLC models. Control charts were used to establish MLC performance and assess test frequency required to achieve a given level of performance. MLC-related interlocks and servicing events were recorded during the monitoring period and were investigated as indicators of MLC performance variations. Methods: The QC test developed as part of the MLC performance monitoring system uses 2D megavoltage images (acquired using an electronic portal imaging device) of 23 fields to determine the location of the leaves with respect to the radiation isocenter. The precision of the MLC performance monitoring QC test and the MLC itself was assessed by detecting the MLC leaf positions on 127 megavoltage images of a static field. After initial calibration, the MLC performance monitoring QC test was performed 3–4 times/week over a period of 10–11 months to monitor positional accuracy of individual leaves for two different MLC models. Analysis of test results was performed using individuals control charts per leaf with control limits computed based on the measurements as well as two sets of specifications of ±0.5 and ±1 mm. Out-of-specification and out-of-control leaves were automatically flagged by the monitoring system and reviewed monthly by physicists. MLC-related interlocks reported by the linear accelerator and servicing events were recorded to help identify potential causes of nonrandom MLC leaf positioning variations. Results: The precision of the MLC performance monitoring QC test and the MLC itself was within ±0.22 mm for most MLC leaves and the majority of the apparent leaf motion was attributed to beam spot displacements between irradiations. The MLC QC test was performed 193 and 162 times over the monitoring period for the studied units and recalibration had to be repeated up to three times on one of these units. For both units, rate of MLC interlocks was moderately associated with MLC servicing events. The strongest association with the MLC performance was observed between the MLC servicing events and the total number of out-of-control leaves. The average elapsed time for which the number of out-of-specification or out-of-control leaves was within a given performance threshold was computed and used to assess adequacy of MLC test frequency. Conclusions: A MLC performance monitoring system has been developed and implemented to acquire high-quality QC data at high frequency. This is enabled by the relatively short acquisition time for the images and automatic image analysis. The monitoring system was also used to record and track the rate of MLC-related interlocks and servicing events. MLC performances for two commercially available MLC models have been assessed and the results support monthly test frequency for widely accepted ±1 mm specifications. Higher QC test frequency is however required to maintain tighter specification and in-control behavior.

07 ISOTOPE AND RADIATION SOURCES↗
DOE OSTI2018

Reconstruction of a direction-dependent primordial power spectrum from Planck CMB data

We consider the possibility that the primordial curvature perturbation is direction-dependent. To first order this is parameterised by a quadrupolar modulation of the power spectrum and results in statistical anisotropy of the CMB, which can be quantified using `bipolar spherical harmonics'. We compute these for the Planck DR2-2015 SMICA map and estimate the noise covariance from Planck Full Focal Plane 9 simulations. A constant quadrupolar modulation is detected with 2.2$σ$ significance, dropping to 2$σ$ when the primordial power is assumed to scale with wave number k as a power law. Going beyond previous work we now allow the spectrum to have arbitrary scale-dependence. Our non-parametric reconstruction then suggests several spectral features, the most prominent at k ~ 0.006 Mpc -1 . When a constant quadrupolar modulation is fitted to data in the range 0.005 ≤ k/Mpc -1 ≤ 0.008, its preferred directions are found to be related to the cosmic hemispherical asymmetry and the CMB dipole. To determine the significance we apply two test statistics to our reconstructions of the quadrupolar modulation from data, against reconstructions of realisations of noise only. With a test statistic sensitive only to the amplitude of the modulation, the reconstructions from the multipole range 30 ≤ ℓ ≤ 1200 are unusual with 2.1$σ$ significance. With the second test statistic, sensitive also to the direction, the significance rises to 6.9$σ$. Our approach is easily generalised to include other data sets such as polarisation, large-scale structure and forthcoming 21-cm line observations which will enable these anomalies to be investigated further.

79 ASTRONOMY AND ASTROPHYSICS↗
DOE OSTI2016

Polynomial Chaos–Based Bayesian Inference of K -Profile Parameterization in a General Circulation Model of the Tropical Pacific

The authors present a polynomial chaos (PC)–based Bayesian inference method for quantifying the uncertainties of the K-profile parameterization (KPP) within the MIT general circulation model (MITgcm) of the tropical Pacific. The inference of the uncertain parameters is based on a Markov chain Monte Carlo (MCMC) scheme that utilizes a newly formulated test statistic taking into account the different components representing the structures of turbulent mixing on both daily and seasonal time scales in addition to the data quality, and filters for the effects of parameter perturbations over those as a result of changes in the wind. To avoid the prohibitive computational cost of integrating the MITgcm model at each MCMC iteration, a surrogate model for the test statistic using the PC method is built. Because of the noise in the model predictions, a basis-pursuit-denoising (BPDN) compressed sensing approach is employed to determine the PC coefficients of a representative surrogate model. The PC surrogate is then used to evaluate the test statistic in the MCMC step for sampling the posterior of the uncertain parameters. Results of the posteriors indicate good agreement with the default values for two parameters of the KPP model, namely the critical bulk and gradient Richardson numbers; while the posteriors of the remaining parameters were barely informative.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗
NASA NTRS1995

Eclipse timings of the low-mass X-ray binary EXO 0748-676: Statistical arguments against orbital period changes

EXO 0748-676, an eclipsing low-mass X-ray binary, is one of only about four or five low-mass X-ray binaries for which orbital period evolution has been reported. We observed a single eclipse egress with ROSAT . The time of this egress is consistent with the apparent increase in P(sub orb) previously reported on the basis of EXOSAT and Ginga observations. Standard analysis, in which O-C (observed minus calculated) timing residuals are examined for deviations from a constant period, implicitly assume that the only uncertainty in each residual is measurement error and that these errors are independent. We argue that the variable eclipse durations and profiles observed in EXO 0748-676 imply that there is an additional source of uncertainty in timing measurements, that this uncertainty is intrinsic to the binary system, and that it is correlated from observation to observation with a variance which increases as a function of the number of binary cycles between observations. This intrinsic variability gives rise to spurious trends in O-C residuals which are misinterpreted as changes in the orbital period. We describe several statistics tests which can be used to test for the presence of intrinsic variability. We apply those statistical tests which are suitable to the EXO 0748-676 observations. The apparent changes in the orbital period of EXO 0748-676 can be completely accounted for by intrinsic variability with an rms variability of approximately 0.35 s per orbital cycle. The variability appears to be correlated from cycle-to-cycle on timescales of less than 1 yr. We suggest that the intrinsic variability is related to slow changes in either the source's X-ray luminosity or the structure of the companion star's atmosphere. We note that several other X-ray binaries and cataclysmic variables have previously reported orbital period changes which may also be due to intrinsic variability rather than orbital period evolution.

Hertz, Paul↗
NASA NTRS2016

Earth Observing System Covariance Realism

The purpose of covariance realism is to properly size a primary object's covariance in order to add validity to the calculation of the probability of collision. The covariance realism technique in this paper consists of three parts: collection/calculation of definitive state estimates through orbit determination, calculation of covariance realism test statistics at each covariance propagation point, and proper assessment of those test statistics. An empirical cumulative distribution function (ECDF) Goodness-of-Fit (GOF) method is employed to determine if a covariance is properly sized by comparing the empirical distribution of Mahalanobis distance calculations to the hypothesized parent 3-DoF chi-squared distribution. To realistically size a covariance for collision probability calculations, this study uses a state noise compensation algorithm that adds process noise to the definitive epoch covariance to account for uncertainty in the force model. Process noise is added until the GOF tests pass a group significance level threshold. The results of this study indicate that when outliers attributed to persistently high or extreme levels of solar activity are removed, the aforementioned covariance realism compensation method produces a tuned covariance with up to 80 to 90% of the covariance propagation timespan passing (against a 60% minimum passing threshold) the GOF tests-a quite satisfactory and useful result.

Realism↗
DOE OSTI2018

Performance Evaluation of a Respirator Vortex Cooling Device

The United States Department of Energy's Savannah River Site (SRS) in Aiken, South Carolina, is dedicated to promoting site-level, risk-based inspection practices to maintain a safe and productive work environment. Protective suits are worn by personnel working in contaminated environments. These suits require that cooling be applied to keep the interior temperature within safe and comfortable limits. A vortex tube, also known as the Ranque-Hilsch vortex tube (RHVT), can provide the necessary cooling. As mechanical devices void of moving components, vortex tubes separate a compressed gas into hot and cold streams—the air emerging from the “hot” end reaching a temperature of 433.2 K and the air emerging from the “cold” end reaching a temperature of 241.5 K (Hilsch, 1946, “Die Expansion Von Gasen Im Zentrifugalfeld Als Kälteprozeß,” Z. Für Naturforsch., 1, pp. 208–214). Routing the cold stream of the vortex tube to the user's protective suit facilitates the required cooling. Vortex tubes currently in use at SRS are preset, through modification solely by and within the SRS respiratory equipment facility (REF), to provide a temperature reduction between 22.2 and 25.0 K. When a new model of vortex tube capable of user adjustment during operation recently became available, prototype testing was conducted for product comparison. Ultimately, it was identified that similar cooling performance between the old and new models is achievable. Production units were acquired to be subjected to complete product analysis at SRS utilizing a statistical test plan. Finally, the statistical test plan, data, thermodynamic calculations, and conclusions were reviewed to determine acceptability for site use.

47 OTHER INSTRUMENTATION↗
DOE OSTI2017

Steady-state supercritical CO 2 and brine relative permeability in Berea sandstone at different temperature and pressure conditions

In this study, we measure steady-state two-phase supercritical CO 2 -brine relative permeabilities in a 61 cm-long Berea sandstone core at three different conditions (408C and 12.41 MPa, 408C and 8.27 MPa, and 608C and 12.41 MPa) under primary drainage. We use pressure taps to obtain pressure drops of individual sections of the core, and X-ray Computed Tomography (CT) to obtain in situ saturation profiles, which together help to mitigate the capillary end effect. We include previously measured relative permeabilities at 208C and 10.34 MPa, and compare all the data using both an eye-test and a statistical test. We find no appreciable temperature and pressure dependence of CO 2 relative permeability within 20–608C and 8.27–12.41 MPa. We find slight changes in the brine relative permeability between supercritical CO 2 conditions (40–608C and 8.27–12.41 MPa) and the liquid CO 2 condition (208C and 10.34 MPa). The temperature and pressure independence of CO 2 relative permeability has been previously recognized and reassured in this work using a capillary-effect-free method. This allows one to use a single CO 2 relative permeability curve in modeling two-phase CO 2 flow within 20–608C and 8.27–12.41 MPa.

58 GEOSCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2015

High-speed quantum-random number generation by continuous measurement of arrival time of photons

We demonstrate a novel high speed and multi-bit optical quantum random number generator by continuously measuring arrival time of photons with a common starting point. To obtain the unbiased and post-processing free random bits, the measured photon arrival time is converted into the sum of integral multiple of a fixed period and a phase time. Theoretical and experimental results show that the phase time is an independent and uniform random variable. A random bit extraction method by encoding the phase time is proposed. An experimental setup has been built and the unbiased random bit generation rate could reach 128 Mb/s, with random bit generation efficiency of 8 bits per detected photon. The random numbers passed all tests in the statistical test suite.

46 INSTRUMENTATION RELATED TO NUCLEAR SCIENCE AND ↗
NASA NTRS2016

Earth Observation System Flight Dynamics System Covariance Realism

This presentation applies a covariance realism technique to the National Aeronautics and Space Administration (NASA) Earth Observation System (EOS) Aqua and Aura spacecraft based on inferential statistics. The technique consists of three parts: collection calculation of definitive state estimates through orbit determination, calculation of covariance realism test statistics at each covariance propagation point, and proper assessment of those test statistics.

A-Train↗
DOE OSTI2015

DETECTING UNSPECIFIED STRUCTURE IN LOW-COUNT IMAGES

Unexpected structure in images of astronomical sources often presents itself upon visual inspection of the image, but such apparent structure may either correspond to true features in the source or be due to noise in the data. This paper presents a method for testing whether inferred structure in an image with Poisson noise represents a significant departure from a baseline (null) model of the image. To infer image structure, we conduct a Bayesian analysis of a full model that uses a multiscale component to allow flexible departures from the posited null model. As a test statistic, we use a tail probability of the posterior distribution under the full model. This choice of test statistic allows us to estimate a computationally efficient upper bound on a p-value that enables us to draw strong conclusions even when there are limited computational resources that can be devoted to simulations under the null model. We demonstrate the statistical performance of our method on simulated images. Applying our method to an X-ray image of the quasar 0730+257, we find significant evidence against the null model of a single point source and uniform background, lending support to the claim of an X-ray jet.

79 ASTRONOMY AND ASTROPHYSICS↗
DOE OSTI2012

REMARKS ON THE METHODS OF INVESTIGATIONS OF ALIGNMENT OF GALAXIES

In the 1975 Hawley and Peebles proposed the use of three statistical tests for investigations of galaxy orientations in the large structures. Nowadays, it is considered as the standard method of searching for galactic alignments. In the present paper we analyzed the tests in detail and proposed a few improvements. Based on the improvements, a new method of analysis of the alignment of galaxies in clusters is proposed. The power of this method is demonstrated on the sample of 247 Abell clusters with at least 100 objects in each. The distributions of the position angles for galaxies in each cluster are analyzed using statistical tests: {chi}{sup 2}, Fourier, autocorrelation, and Kolmogorov test. The mean value of analyzed statistics is compared with theoretical predictions as well as with results obtained from numerical simulations. We performed 1000 simulations of 247 fictitious clusters, each with the numbers of galaxies the same as in the real clusters. We found that orientations of galaxies in analyzed clusters are not random, i.e., that there exists an alignment of galaxies in rich Abell galaxy clusters.

79 ASTRONOMY AND ASTROPHYSICS↗
DOE OSTI2023

Toward extracting $$\gamma $$ from $$B\rightarrow DK$$ without binning

Abstract $$B^\pm \rightarrow DK^\pm $$ B ± → D K ± transitions are known to provide theoretically clean information about the CKM angle $$\gamma $$ γ , with the most precise available methods exploiting the cascade decay of the neutral D into CP self-conjugate states. Such analyses currently require binning in the D decay Dalitz plot, while a recently proposed method replaces this binning with the truncation of a Fourier series expansion. In this paper, we present a proof of principle of a novel alternative to these two methods, in which no approximations at the level of the data representation are required. In particular, our new strategy makes no assumptions about the amplitude and strong phase variation over the Dalitz plot. This comes at the cost of a degree of ambiguity in the choice of test statistic quantifying the compatibility of the data with a given value of $$\gamma $$ γ , with improved choices of test statistic yielding higher sensitivity. While our current proof-of-principle implementation does not demonstrate optimal sensitivity to $$\gamma $$ γ , its conceptually novel approach opens the door to new strategies for $$\gamma $$ γ extraction. More studies are required to see if these can be competitive with the existing methods.

72 PHYSICS OF ELEMENTARY PARTICLES AND FIELDS↗
DOE OSTI2014

Visual Sample Plan Version 7.0 User's Guide

User's guide for VSP 7.0 This user's guide describes Visual Sample Plan (VSP) Version 7.0 and provides instructions for using the software. VSP selects the appropriate number and location of environmental samples to ensure that the results of statistical tests performed to provide input to risk decisions have the required confidence and performance. VSP Version 7.0 provides sample-size equations or algorithms needed by specific statistical tests appropriate for specific environmental sampling objectives. It also provides data quality assessment and statistical analysis functions to support evaluation of the data and determine whether the data support decisions regarding sites suspected of contamination. The easy-to-use program is highly visual and graphic. VSP runs on personal computers with Microsoft Windows operating systems (XP, Vista, Windows 7, and Windows 8). Designed primarily for project managers and users without expertise in statistics, VSP is applicable to two- and three-dimensional populations to be sampled (e.g., rooms and buildings, surface soil, a defined layer of subsurface soil, water bodies, and other similar applications) for studies of environmental quality. VSP is also applicable for designing sampling plans for assessing chem/rad/bio threat and hazard identification within rooms and buildings, and for designing geophysical surveys for unexploded ordnance (UXO) identification.

97 MATHEMATICS AND COMPUTING↗
DOE OSTI2015

WE-E-201-01: Use and Abuse of Common Statistics in Radiological Physics

Physicists are often expected to have a solid grounding in experimental design and statistical analysis, sometimes filling in when biostatisticians or other experts are not available for consultation. Unfortunately, graduate education on these topics is seldom emphasized and few opportunities for continuing education exist. Clinical physicists incorporate new technology and methods into their practice based on published literature. A poor understanding of experimental design and analysis could Result in inappropriate use of new techniques. Clinical physicists also improve current practice through quality initiatives that require sound experimental design and analysis. Academic physicists with a poor understanding of design and analysis may produce ambiguous (or misleading) results. This can Result in unnecessary rewrites, publication rejection, and experimental redesign (wasting time, money, and effort). This symposium will provide a practical review of error and uncertainty, common study designs, and statistical tests. Instruction will primarily focus on practical implementation through examples and answer questions such as: where would you typically apply the test/design and where is the test/design typically misapplied (i.e., common pitfalls)? An analysis of error and uncertainty will also be explored using biological studies and associated modeling as a specific use case. Learning Objectives: Understand common experimental testing and clinical trial designs, what questions they can answer, and how to interpret the results Determine where specific statistical tests are appropriate and identify common pitfalls Understand the how uncertainty and error are addressed in biological testing and associated biological modeling.

60 APPLIED LIFE SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2022

Data-directed search for new physics based on symmetries of the SM

We propose exploiting symmetries (exact or approximate) of the Standard Model (SM) to search for physics Beyond the Standard Model (BSM) using the data-directed paradigm (DDP). Symmetries are very powerful because they provide two samples that can be compared without requiring simulation. Focusing on the data, exclusive selections which exhibit significant asymmetry can be identified efficiently and marked for further study. Using a simple and generic test statistic which compares two matrices already provides good sensitivity, only slightly worse than that of the profile likelihood ratio test statistic which relies on the exact knowledge of the signal shape. This can be exploited for rapidly scanning large portions of the measured data, in an attempt to identify regions of interest. We also demonstrate that weakly supervised Neural Networks could be used for this purpose as well.

72 PHYSICS OF ELEMENTARY PARTICLES AND FIELDS↗
NASA NTRS1973

Test of statistical models for gases with and without internal energy states.

The problem of nonlinear rarefied Couette flow with heat transfer has been studied for both monatomic and diatomic gases using the Boltzmann equation with the Bhatnagar-Gross-Krook type models as the governing equation and the method of discrete ordinates as a tool. The calculated results have been compared with the existing experimental data in order to test the accuracy and the applicability of the statistical models for this one-dimensional problem. The calculated density results are found to be in good agreement with available experimental data; the calculated heat flux solution for the linear case is found to always be lower than the experimental data of Teagan and Springer. The comparisons made here indicate that the statistical models are indeed reasonably accurate so that their use is justified in the type of problems investigated.

Huang, A. B.↗
DOE OSTI2015

THE YOUNG SOLAR ANALOGS PROJECT. I. SPECTROSCOPIC AND PHOTOMETRIC METHODS AND MULTI-YEAR TIMESCALE SPECTROSCOPIC RESULTS

This is the first in a series of papers presenting methods and results from the Young Solar Analogs Project, which began in 2007. This project monitors both spectroscopically and photometrically a set of 31 young (300–1500 Myr) solar-type stars with the goal of gaining insight into the space environment of the Earth during the period when life first appeared. From our spectroscopic observations we derive the Mount Wilson S chromospheric activity index (S{sub MW}), and describe the method we use to transform our instrumental indices to S{sub MW} without the need for a color term. We introduce three photospheric indices based on strong absorption features in the blue-violet spectrum—the G-band, the Ca i resonance line, and the Hydrogen-γ line—with the expectation that these indices might prove to be useful in detecting variations in the surface temperatures of active solar-type stars. We also describe our photometric program, and in particular our “Superstar technique” for differential photometry which, instead of relying on a handful of comparison stars, uses the photon flux in the entire star field in the CCD image to derive the program star magnitude. This enables photometric errors on the order of 0.005–0.007 magnitude. We present time series plots of our spectroscopic data for all four indices, and carry out extensive statistical tests on those time series demonstrating the reality of variations on timescales of years in all four indices. We also statistically test for and discover correlations and anti-correlations between the four indices. We discuss the physical basis of those correlations. As it turns out, the “photospheric” indices appear to be most strongly affected by emission in the Paschen continuum. We thus anticipate that these indices may prove to be useful proxies for monitoring emission in the ultraviolet Balmer continuum. Future papers in this series will discuss variability of the program stars on medium (days–months) and short (minutes to hours) timescales.

79 ASTRONOMY AND ASTROPHYSICS↗