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At least 73 records · Page 4

Evaluating the potential of short-term instrument deployment to improve distributed wind resource assessment

Distributed wind projects, which are connected at the distribution level of an electricity system or in off-grid applications to serve specific or local energy needs, often rely solely on wind resource models to establish wind speed and energy generation expectations. Historically, anemometer loan programs have provided an affordable avenue for more accurate onsite wind resource assessment, and the lowering cost of lidar systems has shown similar advantages for more recent assessments. While a full 12 months of onsite wind measurement is the standard for correcting model-based long-term wind speed estimates for utility-scale wind farms, the time and capital investment involved in gathering onsite measurements must be reconciled with the energy needs and funding opportunities that drive expedient deployment of distributed wind projects. Much literature exists to quantify the performance of correcting long-term wind speed estimates with 1 or more years of observational data, but few studies explore the impacts of correcting with months-long observational periods. This study aims to answer the question of how short you can go in terms of the observational time period needed to make impactful improvements to model-based long-term wind speed estimates. Three algorithms, multivariable linear regression, adaptive regression splines, and regression trees, are evaluated for their skill at correcting long-term wind resource estimates from the European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts Reanalysis version 5 (ERA5) using months-long periods of observational data from 66 locations across the US. On average, correction with even 1 month of observations provides significant improvement over the baseline ERA5 wind speed estimates and produces median bias magnitudes and relative errors within 0.22 m s −1 and 4 percentage points of the median bias magnitudes and relative errors achieved using the standard 12 months of data for correction. However, in cases when the shortest observational periods (1 to 2 months) used for correction are not well correlated with the overlapping ERA5 reference, the resultant long-term wind speed errors are worse than those produced using ERA5 without correction. Summer months, which are characterized by weaker relative wind speeds and standard deviations for most of the evaluation sites, tend to produce the worst results for long-term correction using months-long observations. The three tested algorithms perform similarly for long-term wind speed bias; however, regression trees perform notably worse than multivariable linear regression and adaptive regression splines in terms of correlation when using 6 months or less of observational data for correction. Translating the analysis to wind energy, median relative errors in the capacity factor are on average within 10 % using 1 month of training. If the observation period used for correction is not well correlated with the reference data, however, misrepresentation of the observed capacity factor can be substantial. The risk associated with poor correlation between the observed and reference datasets decreases with increasing training period length. In the worst-correlation scenarios, the median capacity factor relative errors from using 1, 3, and 6 months are within 47 %, 26 %, and 16 %, respectively.

17 WIND ENERGY↗

Risk Informed, Performance-Based, Technology-Inclusive Regulatory Infrastructure: Technology-Inclusive Determination of Mechanistic Source Terms for Offsite Dose-Related Assessments for Advanced Nuclear Reactor Facilities

This report summarizes a risk informed, performance-based and technology-inclusive approach to determine source terms for dose related assessments at advanced nuclear facilities. This approach uses a graded process which allows both the non-mechanistic source terms calculation methods, which adopt conservative approaches and assumptions based on known physical and chemical principles, and more importantly the mechanistic source term calculation methods, which consider design-specific scenarios and use best estimate models with uncertainty quantification for a range of licensing basis events (LBEs), to be used for the design and licensing of advanced nuclear technologies. The source terms developed with this graded approach, and radionuclide inventories elsewhere in the facility that are determined during source term analysis, can be used to address licensing issues to support the application processes of 10 CFR Part 50 for a construction permit and operating license or 10 CFR Part 52 for a Combined Operating License (COL), Standard Design Certification, Early Site Permit, Standard Design Approval or Manufacturing License. They can also be used for other purposes including equipment environmental qualification, control room habitability analyses, and assessments of severe accident risks in environmental impact statements. There are many advanced reactor concepts being developed including high temperature gas-cooled reactor (HGTR), sodium-cooled fast reactor (SFR), lead-cooled fast reactor (LFR), molten salt reactor (MSR), micro-reactor, etc. The graded approach presented in this report for source terms determination is, to the extent possible, generic to any of these reactor designs and to future reactor designs. This report provides information on the review of the regulatory foundation for use of conservative bounding source terms as well as event-specific mechanistic source terms for advanced nuclear reactor designs.

07 ISOTOPE AND RADIATION SOURCES↗

The Many-Body Expansion for Metals: II. Nonadditive Terms in Clusters Composed of Metals with n s 1 , n s 2 , and n s 2 p 1 Configurations

The many-body expansion (MBE) was applied to homometallic and heterometallic trimers of metals with ns 1 , ns 2 , and ns 2 p 1 configurations to investigate its convergence, the magnitude and nature (stabilizing/destabilizing) of the individual terms and seek an understanding of their variation across the different families of clusters. In particular, we examined the series of alkali metals (Li 3 , Na 3 , K 3 , Li 2 Na, LiNa 2 ), alkali metal borides (Li 2 B and LiB 2 ), and alkaline earth metals (Be 3 , Be 2 Mg, BeMg 3 , and Mg 3 ) trimers, as well as sodium clusters Na n , n = 2–5. Here, we found that there is no uniform contribution (stabilizing or destabilizing) across the series in the different families of trimers. For instance, the 2-B term stabilizes the ground states of the Na 3 (doublet), Na 4 (singlet), and Na 5 (doublet) clusters, and the 3-B term destabilizes them; however, the opposite holds for the quartet state of the Li 3 , Li 2 Na, LiNa 2 , and Na 3 clusters (destabilizing 2-B, stabilizing 3-B). Substituting Li with B in the quartet state of Li 3 results in a significant reduction of the 3-B term amounting to 16% (Li 2 B) and 5% (LiB 3 ) of the binding energy. On the contrary, the ground states of the alkaline earth metal clusters (Be 3 , Be 2 Mg, BeMg 3 , and Mg 3 ) are stabilized by the 3-B term, while the 2-B term destabilizes them. Overall, we find that the 3-B terms significantly stabilize the high-spin multiplicity states of the ns 1 configurations and the low-spin states of the ns 2 configurations. Finally, as the size of the metal increases, the contribution of the 3-B term to the binding energy decreases due to the longer metal–metal bond distances.

Alkali metals↗

Evaluating the Potential and Challenges of an Uncertainty Quantification Method for Long Short–Term Memory Models for Soil Moisture Predictions

Recently, recurrent deep networks have shown promise to harness newly available satellite–sensed data for long–term soil moisture projections. However, to be useful in forecasting, deep networks must also provide uncertainty estimates. Here we evaluated Monte Carlo dropout with an input–dependent data noise term (MCD+N), an efficient uncertainty estimation framework originally developed in computer vision, for hydrologic time series predictions. MCD+N simultaneously estimates a heteroscedastic input–dependent data noise term (a trained error model attributable to observational noise) and a network weight uncertainty term (attributable to insufficiently constrained model parameters). Although MCD+N has appealing features, many heuristic approximations were employed during its derivation, and rigorous evaluations and evidence of its asserted capability to detect dissimilarity were lacking. To address this, we provided an in–depth evaluation of the scheme's potential and limitations. We showed that for reproducing soil moisture dynamics recorded by the Soil Moisture Active Passive (SMAP) mission, MCD+N indeed gave a good estimate of predictive error, provided that we tuned a hyperparameter and used a representative training data set. The input–dependent term responded strongly to observational noise, while the model term clearly acted as a detector for physiographic dissimilarity from the training data, behaving as intended. However, when the training and test data were characteristically different, the input–dependent term could be misled, undermining its reliability. Additionally, due to the data–driven nature of the model, data noise also influences network weight uncertainty, and therefore the two uncertainty terms are correlated. Altogether, this approach has promise, but care is needed to interpret the results.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

Constraining the nonanalytic terms in the isospin-asymmetry expansion of the nuclear equation of state

In this report we examine the properties of the isospin-asymmetry expansion of the nuclear equation of state from chiral two- and three-body forces. We focus on extracting the high-order symmetry energy coefficients that consist of both normal terms (occurring with even powers of the isospin asymmetry) as well as terms involving the logarithm of the isospin asymmetry that are formally nonanalytic around the expansion point of isospin-symmetric nuclear matter. These coefficients are extracted from numerically precise perturbation theory calculations of the equation of state coupled with a new set of finite difference formulas that achieve stability by explicitly removing the effects of higher-order terms in the expansion. We consider contributions to the symmetry energy coefficients from both two- and three-body interactions. It is found that the coefficients of the logarithmic terms are generically larger in magnitude than those of the normal terms from second-order perturbation theory diagrams, but overall the normal terms give larger contributions to the ground state energy. The high-order isospin-asymmetry terms are especially relevant at large densities where they affect the proton fraction in β-equilibrium matter, and in particular we find that at twice saturation density they can reduce the proton fraction by up to 0.02.

73 NUCLEAR PHYSICS AND RADIATION PHYSICS↗

Alaskan carbon-climate feedbacks will be weaker than inferred from short-term manipulations: Alaskan Benchmark Data and Model runs

This submission aimed to assess differences in short-term step warming manipulations and long-term chronic response to climate change in Alaskan ecosystems. Briefly, climate warming is occurring fastest at high latitudes. Based on short-term field experiments, this warming is projected to stimulate soil organic matter decomposition, and promote a positive feedback to climate change. We show here that the tightly coupled, nonlinear nature of high-latitude ecosystems implies that short-term (< 10 year) warming experiments produce emergent ecosystem carbon stock temperature sensitivities inconsistent with emergent multi-decadal responses. We first demonstrate that a well-tested mechanistic ecosystem model accurately represents observed carbon cycle and active layer depth responses to short-term summer warming in four diverse Alaskan sites. We then show that short-term warming manipulations do not capture the non-linear, long-term dynamics of vegetation, and thereby soil organic matter, that occur in response to thermal, hydrological, and nutrient transformations belowground. Our results demonstrate significant spatial heterogeneity in multi-decadal Arctic carbon cycle trajectories and argue for more mechanistic models to improve predictive capabilities.The model used in the current study is available publicly (https://github.com/jinyun1tang/ECOSYS), and the current submission contains the python/ matlab codes for analyzing output from the model (includng a readme file to explain the codes). The benchmark data, also enclosed, was collected from a range of published and publicly available sources (extracted using GRABIT: https://www.mathworks.com/matlabcentral/fileexchange/7173-grabit). These sources describe warming induced changes in tundra/ boreal ecosystems.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

Assessing boundary condition and parametric uncertainty in numerical-weather-prediction-modeled, long-term offshore wind speed through machine learning and analog ensemble

To accurately plan and manage wind power plants, not only does the time-varying wind resource at the site of interest need to be assessed but also the uncertainty connected to this estimate. Numerical weather prediction (NWP) models at the mesoscale represent a valuable way to characterize the wind resource offshore, given the challenges connected with measuring hub-height wind speed. The boundary condition and parametric uncertainty associated with modeled wind speed is often estimated by running a model ensemble. However, creating an NWP ensemble of long-term wind resource data over a large region represents a computational challenge. Here, we propose two approaches to temporally extrapolate wind speed boundary condition and parametric uncertainty using a more convenient setup in which a mesoscale ensemble is run over a short-term period (1 year), and only a single model covers the desired long-term period (20 year). We quantify hub-height wind speed boundary condition and parametric uncertainty from the short-term model ensemble as its normalized across-ensemble standard deviation. Then, we develop and apply a gradient-boosting model and an analog ensemble approach to temporally extrapolate such uncertainty to the full 20-year period, for which only a single model run is available. As a test case, we consider offshore wind resource characterization in the California Outer Continental Shelf. Both of the proposed approaches provide accurate estimates of the long-term wind speed boundary condition and parametric uncertainty across the region (R 2 >0.75), with the gradient-boosting model slightly outperforming the analog ensemble in terms of bias and centered root-mean-square error. At the three offshore wind energy lease areas in the region, we find a long-term median hourly uncertainty between 10 % and 14 % of the mean hub-height wind speed values. Finally, we assess the physical variability in the uncertainty estimates. In general, we find that the wind speed uncertainty increases closer to land. Also, neutral conditions have smaller uncertainty than the stable and unstable cases, and the modeled wind speed in winter has less boundary condition and parametric sensitivity than summer.

17 WIND ENERGY↗

A forecast-driven decision-making model for long-term operation of a hydro-wind-photovoltaic hybrid system

Hydro-wind-photovoltaic (PV) hybrid system has the potential to increase the integration of renewable energy sources into an existing grid. For the long-term operation of the system, due to the non-storable nature of wind and PV power, it is essentially to decide the optimal long-term carryover storage of cascade reservoirs. However, it remains a challenge due to high uncertainties of long-term forecasts and complicated hydraulic/electrical relationships between cascade reservoirs. Here in this study, a forecast-driven decision-making model is proposed for the hybrid system, which converts the multi-stage long-term operation process into a two-stage operation problem (including current stage and carryover stage) to avoid using longer-horizon forecast information with lower accuracy. First, the carryover stage energy surfaces (CESs) considering the forecast uncertainties of wind, solar and hydro resources are proposed to characterize carryover stage benefit quantitatively. Then a CESs-based forward decision-making optimization model is developed to guide the long-term operation of a hydro-wind-photovoltaic hybrid system. The applications in a hydro-wind-PV hybrid system of Yalong River basin results show that: compared with conventional operation, 1) power generation increases 9.03%; 2) in terms of the carryover storages control, the reservoir impounding and drawdown timing are delayed, and the drawdown depth is increased, which can be used to formulate better reservoir operation rules.

13 HYDRO ENERGY↗

System code evaluation of near-term accident tolerant claddings during pressurized water reactor station blackout accidents

Following the Fukushima Daiichi nuclear accident in 2011, researches on Accident-tolerant fuels (ATFs) are currently of high interest in not only the nuclear industry but also governmental and international organizations. In this work, a quantitative evaluation of the performance of monolithic FeCrAl cladding and Cr-coated Zircaloy cladding has been performed for Pressurized Water Reactor (PWR) Station Blackout (SBO) accidents. A generic PWR model has been built in system thermal-hydraulics code TRACE based on the Surry Nuclear Power Station with counter-current natural circulation modelling capability for hotleg and steam generator U-tube components during the accidents. The base model results are then compared to MELCOR and RELAP simulations to verify the system component implementation in TRACE. Two PWR SBO scenarios were investigated, including: short-term SBO and long-term SBO with early reactor coolant pump (RCP) seal failure. These scenarios are defined to be very similar to the accidents studied in the State-of-the-Art Reactor Consequence Analysis (SOARCA) project. TRACE code is modified to reflect the oxidation kinetics of FeCrAl and Cr-coating. Larson-Miller creep rupture model is also implemented in TARCE using its built-in control systems to simulate the creep rupture of hotlegs. Additionally, the comparison between the TRACE models with and without the counter-current flow modeling resulted in significant difference when comparing ATF cladding to Zircaloy for short term SBO, while it marginal impacted the performance during long term SBO with RCP seal failure. For short term SBO, both ATF cladding underwent hot leg creep rupture ~20 min after Zircaloy cladding. While Zircaloy and Cr-coated cladding had generated significant amount of hydrogen gas (>10 kg) before the creep rupture event, FeCrAl cladding had only generated <0.5 kg of hydrogen gas. For long term SBO with RCP seal failure, significant hydrogen generation and fuel melting was predicted before hot leg creep rupture for the ATF cladding while providing only 10–20 min additional coping time compared to Zircaloy.

73 NUCLEAR PHYSICS AND RADIATION PHYSICS↗

Watershed-scale liming reveals the short- and long- term effects of pH on the forest soil microbiome and carbon cycling

Soil microbial community composition routinely correlates with pH, reflecting both direct pH effects on microbial physiology and long-term biogeochemical feedbacks. For this work, we used two watershed-scale liming experiments to identify short- (2 years) and long-term (25 years) changes in the structure and function of bacterial and fungal communities in organic horizons (O e and O a ) of acid forest soils. Liming increased soil pH, extractable calcium, and soil carbon stocks, reduced biomass-specific respiration, and caused major changes in the soil microbiome in the short and long term. More taxa responded to liming in the short term (70%) than in the long term (30%), with most showing consistent directional responses at both sites. The ratio of change in relative abundance between limed and reference sites was twofold higher at the long than the short-term site, indicating that the effects of liming grew over time. Liming impacts were most pronounced in fungi, as steep declines of dominant ectomycorrhizal fungi ( Cenococcum and Russula ) occurred at both sites. Liming favoured neutrophilic bacteria over acidophilic populations according to estimated environmental pH optima. Collectively, these results demonstrate that a liming-induced change of one pH unit has an immediate and persistent effect on the structure and function of microbial communities in acid forest soils. The corresponding suppression of respiration indicates that anthropogenic alterations of soil pH, as driven by acid deposition or liming, can affect forest floor C stocks due to pH-driven shifts in community structure.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

The influence of dietary intake of omega-3 polyunsaturated fatty acids on the association between short-term exposure to ambient nitrogen dioxide and respiratory and cardiovascular outcomes among healthy adults

Background: Short-term exposure to ambient nitrogen dioxide (NO 2 ) is associated with adverse respiratory and cardiovascular outcomes. Supplementation of omega-3 polyunsaturated fatty acids (PUFA) has shown protection against exposure to fine particulate matter. This study aims to investigate whether habitual omega-3 PUFA intake differentially modify the associations between respiratory and cardiovascular responses and short-term exposure to ambient NO 2 . Methods: Sixty-two healthy participants were enrolled into low or high omega-3 groups based on their habitual omega-3 PUFA intake. Each participant was repeatedly assessed for lung function, blood lipids, markers of coagulation and fibrinolysis, vascular function, and heart rate variability (HRV) in up to five sessions, each separated by at least 7 days. This study was carried out in the Research Triangle area of North Carolina, USA between October 2016 and September 2019. Daily ambient NO 2 concentrations were obtained from an area air quality monitoring station on the day of outcome assessment (Lag0), 4 days prior (Lag1-4), as well as 5-day moving average (5dMA). The associations between short-term exposure to NO 2 and the measured indices were evaluated using linear mixed-effects models stratified by omega-3 levels and adjusted by covariates including relative humidity and temperature. Results: The average concentration of ambient NO 2 during the study periods was 5.3±3.8 ppb which was below the National Ambient Air Quality Standards (NAAQS). In the high omega-3 group, an interquartile range (IQR) increase in short-term NO 2 concentrations was significantly associated with increased lung function [e.g. 1.2% (95%CI: 0.2%, 2.2%) in FVC at lag1, 2.6% (95%CI: 0.4%, 4.8%) in FEV1 at 5dMA], decreased blood lipids [e.g. -2.6% (95%CI: -4.4%, -0.9%) in total cholesterol at lag2, -3.1% (95%CI: -6.1%, 0.0%) in HDL at 5dMA, and -3.1% (95%CI: -5.5%, -0.7%) in LDL at lag2], improved vascular function [e.g. 8.9% (95%CI: 0.6%, 17.2%) increase in FMD and 43.1% (95%CI: -79.8%, -6.3%) decrease in endothelin-1 at 5dMA], and changed HRV parameters [e.g. -7.2% (95%CI: -13.6%, -0.8%) in HFn and 13.4% (95%CI: 0.2%, 28.3%) in LF/HF ratio at lag3]. In the low omega-3 group, an IQR increase in ambient NO 2 was associated with elevations in coagulation markers (von Willebrand Factor, D-dimer) and a decrease in HRV (very-low frequency); however, null associations were observed between short-term NO 2 exposure and changes in lung function, blood lipids, and vascular function. Conclusions: The results in this study imply that dietary omega-3 PUFA consumption may offer respiratory and vascular benefits in response to short-term exposure of healthy adults to NO 2 levels below the NAAQS.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

Long-Term Infrasound Sensor Calibration and Characterization

Previous testing has shown that infrasound sensors deployed in the field can exhibit notable deviations from their nominal, lab-based calibrations. These variations may be due to changes in environmental conditions, long-term sensor drift, or other unresolved features. In early 2018, we installed two identical infrasound elements with five infrasound sensors at each element (Chaparral M50A, Chaparral M64LN, CEA/Martec MB2005, CEA/Seismowave MB3a, and Hyperion IFS-5113A). These sensors were accepted or under consideration for use in the International Monitoring System network of the Comprehensive Nuclear-Test-Ban Treaty. Each element had all sensors connected to a single digitizer and port to the atmosphere. We also recorded instrument enclosure air temperature and humidity and external air temperature. Using the MB2005 as the reference, we examine the relative sensor response (both magnitude and phase) as a function of time and frequency and compare it with quarterly laboratory calibrations and environmental conditions. Here, we find that the magnitude response for all sensors exhibits some variability in both the lab and field, with the amplitude variations often >5%. The field-based variations are more severe and occur on both long-term (months) and short-term (hours) timescales. Short-term variability correlates with changes in environmental conditions and is considerable (up to 25%) for the Chaparral M50A and noticeable (∼5%) for the French Alternative Energies and Atomic Energy Commission (CEA) MB3a. Long-term magnitude variability for the Chaparral M50A was up to 50% and does not clearly correlate with environmental conditions. The other sensors show some long-term magnitude offsets, but they have relatively stable responses in the conditions we examined. The MB3a also displays some frequency-dependent magnitude variability and shows a minor dependence on temperature. Phase estimates are stable and near zero for all sensors tested. These results strongly suggest sensor response and variability due to environmental conditions should be considered in future infrasound data interpretation and sensor selection and development.

Fee, David↗

Long-term hydrological, biogeochemical, and climatological data from Walker Branch Watershed, East Tennessee, USA

In 1967, the original Walker Branch Watershed (WBW) project was established to study elemental cycling and mass balances in a relatively unimpacted watershed. Over the next 50+ years, findings from additional experimental studies and long-term observations on WBW advanced understanding of catchment hydrology, biogeochemistry, and ecology and established WBW as a seminal site for catchment science. The 97.5-ha WBW is located in East Tennessee, USA, on the U.S. Department of Energy's Oak Ridge Reservation. Vegetation on the watershed is characteristic of an eastern deciduous, second-growth forest. The watershed is divided into two subcatchments: the West Fork (38.4 ha) and the East Fork (59.1 ha). Headwater streams draining these subcatchments are fed by multiple springs, and thus flow is perennial. Stream water is high in base cations due to weathering of dolomite bedrock and nutrient concentrations are low. Long-term observations of climate, hydrology, and biogeochemistry include daily (1969–2014) and 15-min (1994–2014) stream discharge and annual runoff (1969–2014); hourly, daily, and annual rainfall (1969–2012); daily climate and soil temperature (1993–2010); and weekly stream water chemistry (1989–2013). These long-term datasets are publicly available on the WBW website (https://walkerbranch.ornl.gov/long-term-data/). While collection of these data has ceased, related long-term measurements continue through the National Ecological Observatory Network (NEON), where WBW is the core terrestrial and aquatic site in the Appalachian and Cumberland Plateau region (NEON's Domain 7) of the United States. These long-term datasets have been and will continue to be important in evaluating the influence of climatic and environmental drivers on catchment processes.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

Improving Long-term Monitoring of Contaminated Groundwater at Sites where Attenuation-based Remedies are Deployed

This study presents an effective approach to tackle the challenge of long-term monitoring of contaminated groundwater sites where remediation leaves residual contamination in the subsurface. Traditional long-term monitoring of contaminated groundwater sites focuses on measuring contaminant concentrations and is applicable to sites where contaminant mass is removed or degraded to a level below the regulatory standard. The traditional approach is less effective at sites where risk from metals or radionuclides continues to exist in the subsurface after remedial goals are achieved. We propose a long-term monitoring strategy for this type of waste site that focuses on measuring the hydrological and geochemical parameters that control attenuation or remobilization of contaminants while de-emphasizing contaminant-concentration measurements. Furthermore, we demonstrate how this approach would be more effective than traditional long-term monitoring, using a site in South Carolina, USA, where groundwater is contaminated by several radionuclides. A comprehensive enhanced attenuation remedy has been implemented at the site to minimize discharge of contamination to surface water. The immobilization of contaminants occurs in three locations by manipulation of hydrological and geochemical parameters, as well as by natural attenuation processes. Deployment of our proposed long-term monitoring strategy will combine subsurface and surface measurements using spectroscopic tools, geophysical tools, and sensors to monitor the parameters controlling contaminant attenuation. The advantage of this approach is that it will detect the potential for contaminant remobilization from engineered and natural attenuation zones, allowing potential adverse changes to be mitigated before contaminant attenuation is reversed.

12 MANAGEMENT OF RADIOACTIVE AND NON-RADIOACTIVE W↗

Determining the leading-order contact term in neutrinoless double β decay

We present a method to determine the leading-order (LO) contact term contributing to the nn → ppe - e - amplitude through the exchange of light Majorana neutrinos. Our approach is based on the representation of the amplitude as the momentum integral of a known kernel (proportional to the neutrino propagator) times the generalized forward Compton scattering amplitude n ( p 1 ) n ( p 2 ) W + ( k ) → \( p\left({p}_1^{\prime}\right)p\left({p}_2^{\prime}\right){W}^{-}(k) \) , in analogy to the Cottingham formula for the electromagnetic contribution to hadron masses. We construct model-independent representations of the integrand in the low- and high-momentum regions, through chiral EFT and the operator product expansion, respectively. We then construct a model for the full amplitude by interpolating between these two regions, using appropriate nucleon factors for the weak currents and information on nucleon-nucleon ( NN ) scattering in the 1 S 0 channel away from threshold. By matching the amplitude obtained in this way to the LO chiral EFT amplitude we obtain the relevant LO contact term and discuss various sources of uncertainty. We validate the approach by computing the analog I = 2 NN contact term and by reproducing, within uncertainties, the charge-independence-breaking contribution to the 1 S 0 NN scattering lengths. While our analysis is performed in the \( \overline{\mathrm{MS}} \) scheme, we express our final result in terms of the scheme-independent renormalized amplitude \( {\mathcal{A}}_{\nu}\left(\left|\mathbf{p}\right|,\left|\mathbf{p}^{\prime}\right|\right) \) at a set of kinematic points near threshold. We illustrate for two cutoff schemes how, using our synthetic data for \( {\mathcal{A}}_{\nu } \) , one can determine the contact-term contribution in any regularization scheme, in particular the ones employed in nuclear-structure calculations for isotopes of experimental interest.

73 NUCLEAR PHYSICS AND RADIATION PHYSICS↗

Alaskan carbon-climate feedbacks will be weaker than inferred from short-term experiments

Climate warming is occurring fastest at high latitudes. Based on short-term field experiments, this warming is projected to stimulate soil organic matter decomposition, and promote a positive feedback to climate change. We show here that the tightly coupled, nonlinear nature of high-latitude ecosystems implies that short-term (<10 year) warming experiments produce emergent ecosystem carbon stock temperature sensitivities inconsistent with emergent multi-decadal responses. We first demonstrate that a well-tested mechanistic ecosystem model accurately represents observed carbon cycle and active layer depth responses to short-term summer warming in four diverse Alaskan sites. We then show that short-term warming manipulations do not capture the non-linear, long-term dynamics of vegetation, and thereby soil organic matter, that occur in response to thermal, hydrological, and nutrient transformations belowground. Our results demonstrate significant spatial heterogeneity in multi-decadal Arctic carbon cycle trajectories and argue for more mechanistic models to improve predictive capabilities.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

Lack of long-term effect of coarse woody debris dam restoration on ecosystem functioning and water quality in Coastal Plain streams

Coarse woody debris (CWD) addition is a restoration technique that has been used to reduce effects of landscape disturbance on instream habitat. However, efficacy of this technique for improving ecosystem condition is not well established, in part because monitoring designed to evaluate long-term efficacy is rare. We assessed the effectiveness of CWD additions in disturbed Coastal Plain streams at Fort Benning Military Installation, Georgia, USA, 14 y after initial restoration. In October 2003, 4 disturbed streams received CWD additions (restored streams), and 4 streams were left as unrestored controls. Pre-restoration (2001–2003) and post-restoration (2003–2006) monitoring of nutrient uptake, stream metabolism, and water-quality variables revealed 1) minimal change in water-quality variables, 2) increased stream metabolism and nutrient-uptake rates immediately following restoration, and 3) decreased metabolism and uptake over the remainder of the 3-y post-restoration period. We returned to these streams in 2017 and 2018, measured the same variables, and found minimal long-term effects of restoration on water quality, nutrient uptake, and whole-stream metabolism indicators; however, streamwater pH decreased in all streams 14 y after restoration, and there was a weak treatment × period interaction, indicating that CWD additions may decrease pH in the long term. Further, we found few relationships between watershed disturbance and water-quality variables and ecosystem function metrics, although some relationships were apparent during certain seasons and years. Furthermore, our study is one of the few that have assessed the long-term effects of CWD additions, or any other stream-restoration technique, on ecosystem function. These long-term assessments may be necessary to determine if restorations are a good use of limited resources.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

Source term method for binary neutron stars initial data

The initial condition problem for a binary neutron star system requires a Poisson equation solver for the velocity potential with a Neumann-like boundary condition on the surface of the star. Difficulties that arise in this boundary value problem are: (a) the boundary is not known a priori, but constitutes part of the solution of the problem; (b) various terms become singular at the boundary. In this work, we present a new method to solve the fluid Poisson equation for irrotational/spinning binary neutron stars. The advantage of the new method is that it does not require complex fluid surface fitted coordinates and it can be implemented in a Cartesian grid, which is a standard choice in numerical relativity calculations. This is accomplished by employing the source term method proposed by Towers, where the boundary condition is treated as a jump condition and is incorporated as additional source terms in the Poisson equation, which is then solved iteratively. The issue of singular terms caused by vanishing density on the surface is resolved with an additional separation that shifts the computation boundary to the interior of the star. We present two-dimensional tests to show the convergence of the source term method, and we further apply this solver to a realistic three-dimensional binary neutron star problem. By comparing our solution with the one coming from the initial data solver cocal, we demonstrate agreement to approximately 1%. We report our method can be used in other problems with non-smooth solutions like in magnetized neutron stars.

79 ASTRONOMY AND ASTROPHYSICS↗