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DOE OSTI2023

Reliability modeling in a predictive maintenance context: A margin-based approach

Current system reliability methods (typically based on fault trees or reliability block diagrams) can effectively propagate reliability data from the asset to the system level in order to identify system critical points. However, employed asset reliability data are an approximated integral representation of the past industrywide operational experience, and they neglect the present asset health status (available, for example, from online monitoring data and diagnostic assessments) and forecasted health projection (when available from prognostic models). Asset health should be informed solely by that specific asset’s current and historical performance data and should not be an approximated integral representation of the past industrywide operational experience (as currently performed by system reliability models through Bayesian updating processes). Sensor data, diagnostic assessments, and prognostic assessments are in fact not considered in plant reliability models used to inform system engineers on the most critical assets. In addition, the propagation of quantitative health data from the asset to the system level is a challenge given the diverse nature and structure of health data elements (e.g., vibration spectra, temperature readings, expected failure time). Ideally, in a predictive maintenance context, system reliability models should support decision making by propagating available health information from the asset to the system level in order to provide a quantitative snapshot of system health and identify the most critical assets. Here, this paper is directly addressing these two goals by proposing a different approach for reliability modeling that relies on asset diagnostic and prognostic assessments, along with monitoring data to measure asset health. The propagation of health data from the asset to the system level is performed through fault tree models not in probability terms, but in terms of margin where margin is the “distance” between the present status and an undesired event (e.g., failure or unacceptable performance). Through a cause-effect lens, while classical reliability models target the effect associated with asset performance, a margin-based approach focuses on the cause of an undesired asset performance (i.e., its health). Hence, thinking of reliability in terms of margins implies decision-making based on causal reasoning. We will show how fault tree models can be solved using a margin language and how this process can effectively assist system engineers to identify the most critical assets.

97 - MATHEMATICS AND COMPUTING↗

DOE OSTI2021

Examining Nuisance Aerosol Detections in Light of the Origin of the Screening Process (November 2021)

The evolution of philosophy and computations in the International Data Center (IDC) related to aerosol samples have had profound impacts on the number of recorded detections in the network since routine operations began in 2000. Key decisions from policymakers have been the list of triggering radionuclides, the scheme for categorizing these into interest levels 1-5, and an algorithm for determining when an anthropogenic isotope is seen so often that it is no longer interesting, known as the Exponential Weighted Moving Average (EWMA). These are described in the Operations Manual of the IDC. Key parameters that are controlled by the IDC but for which the IDC receives occasional input from policymakers include the constants in EWMA and the peak significance threshold for individual gamma rays, the latter of which directly leads to determination of the presence or absence of a radionuclide in a sample. There are also changes in computations which the IDC makes and informs policy makers about, such as changes in how background is computed, which could also affect the ease of detecting a peak – real or false. Rather than focus on the quantitative changes due to computation changes, this work records some thinking on how isotopes and peak significance levels were chosen, and the resulting detections seen over 18 years during the buildup of the International Monitoring System (IMS). These detections are considered on a global scale to try to determine the relative impact on monitoring, and in some cases, the nature of their existence. Repeated detections of 131I and 133I are the most troublesome, but they are not so frequent to be a major problem for the Verification Regime. These detections could probably be handled adequately using scientific methods currently under development for xenon backgrounds. It is also somewhat problematic that top-level analysis of aerosol backgrounds has not been reported previous to this. The steep increase in the rate of detections after 2016 are a concern, either in the actual backgrounds or from changes in the calculations methods used to generate the Reviewed Radionuclide Report (RRR.) Final conclusions of the authors are that the computational stability of the RRR is very important. With computational stability, changes can be usefully analyzed as being due to changes in radioactivity in Earth’s atmosphere This report is a distillation into text of a talk given in the Radionuclide Experts Group (RNEG) in Vienna during Working Group B (WGB) in February of 2019. This report does not directly contain any IDC data, only summaries by year, or by isotope, or by location. No specific IDC detection by time, location, or isotope is included.

46 INSTRUMENTATION RELATED TO NUCLEAR SCIENCE AND ↗

DOE OSTI2024

Advanced Guide to Understanding Power System Model Results for Long-Term Resource Plans

This guide is for public utility commission staff, state energy office staff, and other stakeholders who review model results for utility integrated resource plans (IRPs). It builds on the "Beginner's Guide to Understanding Power System Model Results for Long-Term Resource Plans," and delves into more advanced topics that were not included or not fully covered in the beginner's guide. The topics included here are evolving and may or may not be important to the resource plan you are evaluating. Due to limitations in resources, it's also not possible to give the highest level of detail or attention to every topic within a plan. An important part of planning for an uncertain future involves deciding which topics deserve the most focus and resources. It's all about prioritizing efforts where they will have the most impact or be most beneficial despite uncertainties ahead. As with the beginner's guide, we intend for this guide to help improve decision-making in the electricity planning process by strengthening understanding and dialogue between electricity system planners and relevant stakeholders. The following information is designed to allow you to better engage in the planning process by evaluating results, asking questions, and thinking through what is most important. We allocate significant discussion in the guide to electricity demand evolution, demand-side resources, and resource adequacy. These topics have garnered increasing attention, hence their prominence in this guide. Other topics are also presented, but their incorporation into the planning process might vary based on interest and relevance. The absence of certain topics doesn't diminish their importance; rather, it reflects the reality that in planning, trade-offs necessitate prioritizing certain aspects over others.

29 ENERGY PLANNING, POLICY, AND ECONOMY↗

DOE OSTI2024

DMTN-093: Design of the LSST Alert Distribution System

We describe the proposed design and implementation of the LSST Alert Distribution System, which provides rapid dissemination of alerts to community alert brokers. At time of writing, this service is still under development; this “living document” describes current thinking, but is expected to evolve over the course of LSST construction.

79 ASTRONOMY AND ASTROPHYSICS↗

DOE OSTI2026

Preparing For Advanced Air Mobility: A System-Level Framework For Infrastructure, Investment, and Deployment

Advanced air mobility (AAM) is moving from demonstration toward early deployment, supported by a growing national strategy that outlines how these systems may evolve across airspace, infrastructure, and operations. As this transition takes shape, a more practical question comes into focus: what does it mean to be ready? This paper introduces a Capability Maturity Model (CMM) as a structured way to think about that challenge. Rather than treating readiness as a fixed condition, it frames it as a progression - one that develops across multiple, interdependent domains over time.

24 POWER TRANSMISSION AND DISTRIBUTION↗

DOE OSTI2025

Build-To-Replace Strategy to Reduce O&M Costs of Advanced Reactors

This paper targets the goal of reducing fixed operations and maintenance (O&M) costs to $2/MWh for advanced reactor (AR) designs, an order of magnitude reduction from current nuclear fleets. Such goal will be severely constrained if the underlying assumptions of O&M approaches and practices are not questioned and reexamined, especially today when changes can be implemented effectively and efficiently. Achieving a 90% reduction in AR O&M costs requires a completely new way of thinking – a paradigm shift – not through incremental, technology-focused approaches alone. Here, we address this challenge by evaluating the impact of moving to shorter design life for major structures, systems and components (SSCs) and shorter, more predictable refurbishment cycles as modeled by the commercial airline industry. This paper provides a brief overview of this different mindset to O&M applied to ARs: the build-to-replace approach. We provide a direct example of analysis of a build-to-replace scenario by identifying and evaluating scenarios for reduced system and component lifetimes and associated replacement and refurbishment schedules to evaluate impacts on O&M costs and other lifecycle elements such as SSC reliability.

97 - MATHEMATICS AND COMPUTING↗

DOE OSTI2025

Build-to-Replace Strategy to Reduce Operations and Maintenance Costs for Advanced Reactors

This paper targets the reduction of fixed operations and maintenance (O&M) costs for advanced reactor (AR) designs. This goal will be severely constrained if the underlying assumptions of O&M approaches and practices are not questioned and reexamined, especially today when changes can be implemented effectively and efficiently. Achieving a reduction in AR O&M costs requires a completely new way of thinking -a paradigm shift- not through incremental, technology-focused approaches alone. Here, we address this challenge by evaluating the impact of moving to a shorter design life for major structures, systems, and components and shorter, more predictable refurbishment cycles as modeled by the commercial airline industry: the build-to-replace approach. This paper provides a brief overview of this different mindset to O&M applied to ARs and it provided a set of analytical tools based on multi-objective optimization to identify the benefits of such an approach. In conclusion, we provide a direct example analysis of a build-to-replace scenario by identifying and evaluating scenarios for reduced system and component lifetimes and associated replacement and refurbishment schedules to evaluate impacts on O&M costs and other lifecycle elements, such as structure, system, and component reliability.

97 - MATHEMATICS AND COMPUTING↗

DOE OSTI2021

Programmable Matter: The Nanoparticle Atom and DNA Bond

Colloidal crystal engineering with DNA has led to significant advances in bottom-up materials synthesis and a new way of thinking about fundamental concepts in chemistry. Here, programmable atom equivalents (PAEs), comprised of nanoparticles (the “atoms”) functionalized with DNA (the “bonding elements”), are assembled through DNA hybridization into crystalline lattices. Unlike atomic systems, the “atom” (e.g., the nanoparticle shape, size, and composition) and the “bond” (e.g., the DNA length and sequence) can be tuned independently, yielding designer materials with unique catalytic, optical, and biological properties. Here in this review, nearly three decades of work that have contributed to the evolution of this class of programmable matter is chronicled, starting from the earliest examples based on gold-core PAEs, and then delineating how advances in synthetic capabilities, DNA design, and fundamental understanding of PAE-PAE interactions have led to new classes of functional materials that, in several cases, have no natural equivalent.

36 MATERIALS SCIENCE↗

DOE OSTI2022

EQC: Ensembled Quantum Computing for Variational Quantum Algorithms

Variational quantum algorithms (VQA), which are comprised of a classical optimizer and a parameterized quantum circuit, emerges as one of the most promising approaches of harvesting quantum power in the noisy-intermediate-scale-quantum (NISQ) era. However, the deployment of VQAs on today's NISQ devices often faces considerable system noise and prohibitively slow training speeds. On the other hand, the expensive supporting sources and infrastructure make quantum computers extremely keen on high utilization. In this paper, we propose a novel way of thinking about a quantum backend: rather than relying on one physical device which tends to introduce platform-specific noise and bias, a quantum ensemble, which distributes quantum tasks across parallel devices, can serve as a virtualized quantum computer for offering reduced noise levels through an adaptive mixture and also provide significantly improved training speeds through parallelization. With this idea, we build a distributive VQA optimization framework called DVQA, serving as the first effort in adopting parallel quantum devices for cooperative VQA training. To further constraint noise and speed-up convergence, we design a model for individual NISQ devices concerning their properties and running conditions, and propose a weighting mechanism for regularizing the returned gradients. Extensive evaluations on 10 IBM-Q quantum devices using the VQE example show that the distributive VQA training framework can substantially boost the training speed by 10.5x on average (up to 86x and at least 5.2x) with improved training accuracy.

Stein, Samuel A.↗

DOE OSTI2023

Marine Alternative Fuel Pricing, Supply, and Demand

The International Maritime Organization low sulfur fuel rules and greenhouse gas-reduction strategy may create a significant perturbation to global refinery operations, impacting volumes and prices of marine fuel globally and within the United States and incentivizing the transition to alternative fuel use. The goals of this project are to (1) enhance understanding of how very low-sulfur fuel-primarily fuel oil and diesel-and low carbon fuel requirements and promising biofuel processes will affect the marine fuel supply chain; and (2) explore how these perturbations interact with and impact indicators such as pricing, number of trips, and demand behavior, along with the potential to meet low sulfur and carbon fuel demand with biofuel supply chains, (3) merge innovative thinking in the area of marine fuels within research centers of DOE (NREL) and the U.S. Department of Transportation (Volpe). These goals will be accomplished through the combination of detailed refinery, marine fuel burn, system dynamics, and geospatially explicit linear programming models.

biofuel↗

DOE OSTI2025

Upgrading Fermilab’s accelerator control system with ACORN

The Fermilab Accelerator Complex is the largest national user facility in the Office of High Energy Physics (DOE/HEP) program and the only national user facility operating at Fermilab. Fermilab serves as the host to the Long Baseline Neutrino Facility/Deep Underground Neutrino Experiment (LBNF/DUNE), the laboratory’s flagship project for neutrino science that is under construction. LBNF/DUNE will be powered by megawatt beams from an upgraded accelerator, the Proton Improvement Plan II (PIP-II) that will replace the laboratory’s aging linear accelerator with a new one based on superconducting radio-frequency cavities. The Accelerator Controls Operations Research Network (ACORN) Project will support LBNF/DUNE and PIP-II by modernizing the accelerator control system. The project is at the conceptual design phase and looking to achieve Critical Decision 1 (CD-1) later this year. The scope and structure of the project will be presented, along with an overview of how that has changed in the past year. Current design and technology choices will be shared. Specific challenges facing the project will be addressed, along with current thinking on solutions.

Roehrig, Christian [Fermilab]↗

DOE OSTI2021

Who is marginalized in energy justice? Amplifying community leader perspectives of energy transitions in Ghana

There is a divide in energy access studies, between technologically-focused modeling papers in engineering and economics, and energy justice frameworks and principles grounded in social sciences. Quantitative computational models are necessary when analyzing energy, and more specifically electricity, systems, as they are technologically-complex systems that can diverge from intuitive patterns. To assure energy justice, these models must be reflective of, and informative to, a wide range of stakeholders, including households and communities alongside utilities, governments, and others. Yet, moving from a qualitative understanding of preferences to quantitative modeling is challenging. In this perspective piece, we pilot the use of the value-focused thinking framework to inform stakeholder engagement. The result is a strategic objective hierarchy that highlights the tradeoffs and the social, economic and technological factors that need to be measured in models. We apply the process in Ghana, using a survey, stakeholder workshops, and follow-up interviews to uncover key tradeoffs and stakeholder-derived objectives. We discuss three key areas that have been rarely, if ever, well-represented in energy models: (1) the relationship between the dynamics of electricity end-use and the technology and economic structure of the system; (2) explicit tradeoffs between electricity access, cost, and reliability as defined by stakeholders; and (3) the definition of new objectives, such as minimizing hazards related to theft. We conclude that this model of engagement provides an opportunity to tie together rigorous qualitative analysis and stakeholder engagement with crucial quantitative models of the electricity system.

29 ENERGY PLANNING, POLICY, AND ECONOMY↗

DOE OSTI2025

Mapping Nitrogen Pathways in Organic Manure through GCAM

As the world has become more and more globalized, a need for a comprehensive and extensive modelling system that maps out the vast majority of processes and items around the world and can display how interdependent they are. Furthermore, such a model should be able to predict future processes and values such that it can guide scientific thinking and policy. This is where the importance of GCAM becomes so apparent. GCAM, the Global Change Analysis Model, that incorporates many different fields and can predict such a wide variety of processes. As the model expands and encompasses more fields and goes into greater detail, there is a need for previously incorporated processes to be further fleshed out. My project is dedicated to creating the organic nitrogen fertilizer pathway, such that there are two nitrogen fertilizer pathways, synthetic and organic (manure). Previously, only synthetic fertilizer was included, with all organic fertilizer (manure) being omitted from the model. Developing the synthetic path is relatively easy, as the process for creating synthetic fertilizer is an industrial process that has been perfected over decades, and thus has a very precise input/output coefficient of nitrogen, but determining that same coefficient for organic manure is much harder, because, well, digestion is not an industrial process, especially considering the many different types of animals have different processes, and a good amount of the manure they produce won’t be applied to the soil. I obtained data from the UN’s FAO on manure nitrogen applied to soil, and filled in the gaps and created many different visualizations to help comprehend the data. These findings will foster a greater understanding of nitrogen flows, which is crucial to fields like industrial agriculture, polluting runoff, and nitrifying bacteria and archaea in the soil.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

DOE OSTI2024

Synthesis of Correct Digital Controller Models from Specifications by Model Transformation (21-0320)

The design of high consequence controllers (in weapons systems, autonomy, etc.) that do what they are supposed to do is a significant challenge. Testing simply does not come close to meeting the requirements for assurance. Today circuit designers at Sandia (and elsewhere) typically capture the core behavior of their components using state models in tools such as STATEFLOW. They then check that their models meet certain requirements (e.g. “The system bus must not deadlock” or “both traffic lights at an intersection must not be green at the same time”) using tools called model checkers. If the model checker returns “yes” then the property is guaranteed to be satisfied by the model. However, there are several drawbacks to this industry practice: (1) there is a lot of detail to get right, this is particularly challenging when there are multiple components requiring complex coordination (2) any errors returned by the model checker have to be traced back through the design and fixed, necessitating rework, (3) there are severe scalability problems with this approach, particularly when dealing with concurrency. All this places high demands on the designers who now face not only an accelerated schedule but also controllers of increasing complexity. This report describes a new and fundamentally different approach to the construction of safety-critical digital controllers. Instead of directly constructing a complete model and then trying to verify it, the designer can start with an initial abstract (think “sketch”) model plus the requirements, from which a correct concrete model is automatically synthesized. There is no need for post-hoc verification of required functional properties. Having tool to carry this out will significantly impact the nation’s ability to ensure the safety of high-consequence digital systems. The approach has been implemented in a prototype tool, along with a suite of examples, including ones that reflect actual problems faced by designers. Our approach operates on a variant of Statecharts developed at Sandia called Qspecs. Statecharts are a widely used formalism for developing concurrent reactive systems, supporting scalability through allowing state models containing composite states, which are the serial or parallel composition of substates which can themselves contain statecharts. Statecharts enable an incremental style of development, in which states are progressively refined to incorporate greater detail in an incremental model of software development. Our approach formulates a set of constraints from the structure of the models and the requirements and propagates these constraints to a fixpoint. The solution to the constraints is an inductive invariant along with guards on the transitions. We also show how our approach extends to implementation refinement, decomposition, composition, and elaboration. We currently handle safety requirements written in LTL (Linear Temporal Logic)

42 ENGINEERING↗

DOE OSTI2023

Decarbonized Electric Grid: Defining, Measuring, and Integrating Decarbonization into Electricity Sector Policy and Planning

Traditionally, electric grid planning seeks to maintain safe, reliable, efficient, and affordable service for current and future customers. As policies, expectations of the energy system, and the threat landscape evolve, additional objectives for power system planners are emerging, including decarbonization, resilience, and equity. Renewable and clean energy goals, especially in the context of deep decarbonization strategies, are changing the mix of resources on the electric grid and prompting new considerations for grid architecture. The increased frequency and severity of extreme weather events over the last two decades, coupled with cybersecurity concerns, have elevated resilience as a key system need. More recently, there has been greater focus on equity and energy justice in grid planning to ensure that disadvantaged communities are not adversely affected by grid modernization and have equal access to its benefits. In response, new thinking around multi-objective decision planning is exploring improvements in grid planning processes to better integrate approaches to meet decarbonization, resilience, and equity objectives. To provide a foundation for this work, a series of white papers was produced to summarize these emerging objectives.

24 POWER TRANSMISSION AND DISTRIBUTION↗

DOE OSTI2023

Resilient Electric Grid: Defining, Measuring, and Integrating Resilience into Electricity Sector Policy and Planning

24 POWER TRANSMISSION AND DISTRIBUTION↗

DOE OSTI2023

Equitable Electric Grid: Defining, Measuring, and Integrating Equity into Electricity Sector Policy and Planning

24 POWER TRANSMISSION AND DISTRIBUTION↗

DOE OSTI2022

Mapping the Opportunity Space to Model the Circular Economy Using Tools Funded by the DOE Office of Energy Efficiency and Renewable Energy

An increasing rate of material consumption and a growing population mean that the Earth's supply of natural resources is witnessing an unsustainable and unprecedented demand. This forces us to find solutions that ensure the availability of resources for sustenance of our society in the years to come. Actors from various backgrounds are addressing these challenges from their own perspectives: engineers are developing efficient manufacturing processes, designers are creating lightweight and durable products, educators are incorporating sustainable thinking in their curricula, policymakers are finding interdisciplinary solutions that benefit society at large, etc. Circular economy (CE) is one such approach to resource use that aims to move away from the linear material use framework of "take-make-waste" to a more circular and interdependent system where product, material and resource use is maximized to avoid unnecessary social, economic, and environmental costs. The purpose of this report is to explain how to approach evaluating the circular economy and to help researchers identify existing tools that can be used or that can serve as starting points for their research needs.

29 ENERGY PLANNING, POLICY, AND ECONOMY↗