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At least 73 records · Page 4

Knowledge-Informed Uncertainty-Aware Machine Learning for Time Series Forecasting of Dynamical Engineered Systems

The high complexity and multiscale nature of many engineered systems—such as those in nuclear power plants—make representing and forecasting their dynamic behavior challenging. Physics-based models can be overly complex and computationally intractable, whereas machine learning (ML) tools are often data-hungry and prone to unphysical solutions. This study proposes a knowledge-informed ML-aided hybrid residual modeling approach that offers accurate and efficient time series forecasting for the operation of dynamical engineered systems. Hybrid residual modeling entails a baseline solution from domain knowledge and known physics expressions about the system dynamics integrated with an ML model to capture undiscovered information from the mismatch (i.e., residuals) between true states from measurements and baseline-predicted outputs. This study further quantifies the ML model uncertainty to provide trustworthy solutions. Real-time operational data from thermal-hydraulic flow loops of the cryogenic moderator system in Oak Ridge National Laboratory’s Spallation Neutron Source facility were used to demonstrate the potential of knowledge-informed uncertainty-aware ML in real-world applications. The state variables of the cryogenic helium loop were modeled with (1) first principles–based system identification (sysID), (2) long short-term memory (LSTM) neural network, and (3) hybrid sysID (baseline) + LSTM (residual). The superior predictive capability of the sysID+LSTM model versus stand-alone sysID and LSTM is confirmed by average performance metrics and individual data points across different prediction horizons. By creating a robust representation of the underlying physical system, the widely applicable hybrid residual modeling approach will enable the future development of digital twins for performance prediction, prognostics, and operation control.

Zhao, Xingang↗

Integrating the human element into the systems engineering process and MBSE methodology

In response to the challenges related to the increasing size and complexity of systems, organizations have recognized the need to integrate human considerations in the beginning stages of systems development. Human Systems Integration (HSI) seeks to accomplish this objective by incorporating human factors within systems engineering (SE) processes and methodologies, which is the focus of this paper. A representative set of HSI methods from multiple sources are organized, analyzed, and mapped to the systems engineering Vee-model. These methods are then consolidated and evaluated against the SE process and Models-Based Systems Engineering (MBSE) methodology to determine where and how they could integrate within systems development activities in the form of specific enhancements. Overall conclusions based on these evaluations are presented and future research areas are proposed.

60 APPLIED LIFE SCIENCES↗

Retaining Systems Engineering Model Meaning Through Transformation: Demo 2

Digital engineering strategies typically assume that digital engineering models interoperate seamlessly across the multiple different engineering modeling software applications involved, such as model- based systems engineering (MBSE), mechanical computer-aided design (MCAD), electrical computer-aided design (ECAD), and other engineering modeling applications. The presumption is that the data schema in these modeling software applications are structured in the familiar flat- tabular schema like any other software application. Engineering domain-specific applications (e.g., systems, mechanical, electrical, simulation) are typically designed to solve domain-specific problems, necessarily excluding explicit representations of non-domain information to help the engineer focus on the domain problems (system definition, design, simulation). Such exclusions become problematic in inter-domain information exchange. The obvious assumptions of one domain might not be so obvious to experts in another domain. Ambiguity in domain-specific language can erode the ability to enable different domain modeling applications to interoperate, unless the underlying language is understood and used as the basis for translation from one application to another. The engineering modeling software application industry has struggled for decades to enable these applications to interoperate. Industry standards have been developed, but they have not unified the industry. Why is this? The authors assert that the industry has relied on traditional database integration methods. The basic issue prohibiting successful application integration then is that traditional database-driven integration does not consider the distinct languages of each domain. An engineering models meaning is expressed through the underlying language of that engineering domain. In essence, traditional integration methods do not retain the semantic context (meaning) of the model. The basis of this research stems from the widely held assumption that systems engineering models are (or can be) structured according to the underlying semantic ontology of the model. This assumption can be imagined from two thoughts. 1) Digital systems engineering models are often represented using graph theory (the graph of a complex systems model can contain millions of nodes and edges). When examining the nodes one at a time and following the outbound edges of each node one by one, one can end up with rudimentary statements about the model (i.e., node A relates to node B), as in a semantic graph. 2) Likewise, from the study of natural languages, a sentence can be structured into unambiguous triples of subject-predicate-object within formal and highly expressive semantic ontologies. The rudimentary statements about a systems model discerned with graph theory closely mimic the triples used in the ontologies that try to structure natural languages. In other words, a systems models semantic graph can be (or is) structured into an ontology. Additionally, it is well established in industry that through natural language processing (NLP), which provides the means to create language structures, that computers can interpret ontological graphs. Therefore, the authors hypothesized that if the integrity of the underlying semantic structure of a systems model is retained, the contextual meaning of the model is retained. By structuring system models into the triples of the underlying ontology during the transformation from one MBSE application to another, the authors have provided a proof of the concept that the meaning of a system model can be retained during transformation. The authors assert that this is the missing ingredient in effective systems model-to-model interoperability. ACKNOWLEDGEMENTS The authors would like to thank the FY19 Model Interoperability team members who provided a solid foundation for the FY20 team to leverage: John McCloud, for the work he did to guide us toward the right use of technology that will appropriately discover and manipulate ontologies. Carlos Tafoya, for the work he did to develop an application programming interface (API)/Adapter that would export ontology-based data from GENESYS. Peter Chandler, for the work he did to architect our overall integration solution, with an eye toward the future that would influence a large-scale federated production-level systems engineering digital model ecosystem.

42 ENGINEERING↗

Economic Feasibility Analysis and Engineering System Design Development of Novel Cesium Adsorbents - 18680

Potassium copper hexacyanoferrate-cellulose hydrogel composites (HCF-gels) and potassium copper hexacyanoferrate-embedded poly-citric acid hydrogel film (HPC) were synthesized. In Cs{sup +} removal experiments, HCF-gels exhibited exceptional Cs{sup +} adsorption capacities 2.06-2.32 mmol g{sup -1}. HPC showed a very high Cs{sup +} uptake of 667 mg/g KCuHCF. The adsorbents revealed stable and high Cs{sup +} removal efficiency across a wide pH range. Notably, the adsorbents could adsorb Cs{sup +} selectively in seawater containing Cs{sup +}. The combination of testing and radiation stability results indicated that the performance of the materials are maintained whether irradiated or not. The cost of the HCF-gels and HPC were estimated approximately 13.0055 $/kg and 38.2490 $/kg respectively. This is reasonable cost compared to commercialized Cs{sup +} adsorbents. New pool scrubbing system is designed for engineering system design to apply novel Cs{sup +} adsorbents under severe accident condition. (authors)

12 MANAGEMENT OF RADIOACTIVE AND NON-RADIOACTIVE W↗

Weapon Systems Engineering Material Database Requirements

The Weapon Systems Engineering Material Database, often called ‘Granta’ (due to the use of Granta MI software by Granta Design) but referred to in this document as ‘the database’, stores and distributes material information to W-division at Los Alamos National Laboratory (LANL). The database is constantly evolving as data is imported and methods of retrieving data are developed. Because limited resources necessitate prioritization of data to be imported and retrieval method development, a definition is needed of how the database is to be used, both currently and in the future. This document, to be used by the database developers, is intended to provide that definition in the form of requirements for the database.

36 MATERIALS SCIENCE↗

Gaseous fuel engine system and operating strategy for limiting crankcase fuel accumulation

Operating a gaseous fuel engine system includes controlling at least one of a delivery location, a delivery timing, or in situ mixing of a gaseous fuel with air, based on at least one engine system parameter upon the basis of which a blowby amount of a gaseous fuel to a crankcase varies. Crankcase accumulation of the gaseous fuel is maintained below a flammability limit. Related apparatus and control logic is also disclosed.

Singh, Jaswinder↗

Overview of the Systems Engineering Process as It Applies to The National Spherical Torus Experiment - Upgrade (NSTX-U)

This paper addresses the systems engineering (SE) processes used for the National Spherical Torus Experiment-Upgrade (NSTX-U). It focuses on SE across the life cycle of the system, including requirements management, interface control, risk management, integration, and verification/validation. This is particularly significant as NSTX-U includes new systems and an existing plant and reused systems from past projects such as the Tokamak Fusion Test Reactor (TFTR). The implementation of SE provides the ability to control complexity, improve communications, identify risks early, and prevent defects. Systems engineering principles are applied to enhance the integration while maintaining relevance in plasma research. Furthermore, these principles define a deliberate process to identify and resolve issues early in the development cycle, thus reducing risks and optimizing outputs. They also establish relationships to gather knowledge from experts and stakeholders, supporting the continued ability of NSTX-U in building and maintaining an operational system able to adapt to changing environments and emerging requirements.

70 PLASMA PHYSICS AND FUSION TECHNOLOGY↗

Bayesian, Multifidelity Operator Learning for Complex Engineering Systems–A Position Paper

Abstract Deep learning has significantly improved the state-of-the-art in computer vision and natural language processing, and holds great potential to design effective tools for predicting and simulating complex engineering systems. In particular, scientific machine learning seeks to apply the power of deep learning to scientific and engineering tasks, with operator learning (OL) emerging as a particularly effective tool. OL can approximate nonlinear operators arising in complex engineering systems, making it useful for simulating, designing, and controlling those systems. In this position paper, we provide a comprehensive overview of OL, including its potential applications to complex engineering domains. We cover three variations of OL approaches: deterministic OL for modeling nonautonomous systems, OL with uncertainty quantification (UQ) capabilities, and multifidelity OL. For each variation, we discuss drawbacks and potential applications to engineering, in addition to providing a detailed explanation. We also highlight how multifidelity OL approaches with UQ capabilities can be used to design, optimize, and control engineering systems. Finally, we outline some potential challenges for OL within the engineering domain.

Computer Science↗

Building America Systems Engineering Approach

The Building America Research Teams use a systems engineering approach to achieve higher quality and energy savings in homes. Using these techniques, the energy consumption of new houses can be reduced by 40% or more with little or no impact on the cost of ownership.

Systems engineering approach↗

Application of systems engineering techniques to component design - Capturing functionality and linking part 'critical to quality' features to requirements

A systems engineering approach - focusing upon functionality - has predominantly been applied in industry to the design of complex systems with many functional interactions, inputs and outputs, eg the design of a decay heat removal system. This paper presents how systems engineering techniques can be applied to component design, i.e. treating the component as a system in its own right, and using functionality as the 'bridge' between the customer requirements and accepted performance. A pressure relief valve is used as an example to present the techniques of: Functional Modelling to establish the functional requirements and Functional Failure Modes and Effects Analysis to establish any emergent functionality to reduce the risk of adverse behaviour. A key aspect of component design is capturing the design intent and establishing the 'Critical to Quality 'features that can critically affect quality and performance. This paper details 'Quality Function Deployment' being applied to a component to capture such features and to establish a clear link to the overarching performance requirements. This approach is particularly useful in ensuring continuity of design understanding throughout the component life cycle, assessing the effects of any proposed changes to the design and the effects of changes in system or customer requirements, or for using the design in a different application. (authors)

22 GENERAL STUDIES OF NUCLEAR REACTORS↗

How systems engineering and human factors can assist SMR vendors with the licensing process - 345

There is growing interest in the development of small modular reactors (SMRs) as a cost-effective renewable source of energy. Most of the current conceptual designs propose advanced and automated control and monitoring technologies which would require complex human system interfaces. The proposals also include a reduction in the number of staff, and partial or full remote control of the facilities. The human factors challenges of such a design philosophy range from identification of information requirements of users to assessing workload to deciding on best information visualization techniques to ensure situation awareness is maintained in a remote control facility. Addressing these challenges will require a systems engineering approach where user requirements are identified through a systematic approach for various contexts, including normal, abnormal, and accident conditions. A systems engineering process will integrate human factors as well as other specialty disciplines such as reliability and design optimization in a coherent fashion that would lead to realization of a successful system that addresses user requirements. The licensing model in Canada is based upon a graded approach and is largely technology neutral. A key factor in ensuring effective licensing effort is identification of regulatory requirements. This paper discusses how adopting a systems engineering approach and early consideration of human factors principles and requirements will not only ensure an efficient design process, but will also help with developing a design that meets the regulatory requirements. (authors)

21 SPECIFIC NUCLEAR REACTORS AND ASSOCIATED PLANTS↗

Perceived Conflicts of Systems Engineering in Early-Stage Research and Development 1

Early Systems Research and Development (ESR&D) is one of the most crucial phases in the product development process. It both blends and blurs the lines between science and engineering, and requires a risk-based, disciplined, and graded approach to effectively manage scope, cost, and complexity of the final product. Many leaders, program managers, and scientists are unwilling to involve systems engineering because of the perception that systems engineering is heavily process oriented, adds unnecessary costs, and should be applied only to mature technologies. The value of systems engineering as applied to ESR&D is unclear to these key individuals. The unfortunate result is that system engineering is not applied to ESR&D. This results in R&D efforts that may have solved the wrong problem, selected the wrong architecture, require technical rework, have difficulty transitioning later maturity levels, and result in higher R&D costs and extended development timelines. This work discusses the difficulty of introducing systems engineering to the research and early development process and their inclination perspectives of researchers, engineers, and managers. The article shall offer potential means to manage the cultural transformation of early adoption of right-sized systems engineering in ESR&D and reverse the attitudinal positions.

42 ENGINEERING↗

Human Readiness Levels in the Systems Engineering Process at Sandia National Laboratories

The Systems Analysis & Decision Support group (2150) at Sandia National Laboratories (SNL) led a study from 2015 to 2017 to investigate the utility of various options to achieve systematic and comprehensive incorporation of the human component of a system throughout the product lifecycle. Although technology readiness levels (TRL) are widely used in the systems engineering process to address technical maturity throughout design and development, a comparable technique to estimate the readiness of a technology for human operator use is lacking at SNL. The present study was designed to investigate the utility of a human readiness levels (HRL) scale to complement the TRL scale for the types of nuclear deterrence work conducted at SNL. The study team conducted 24 interviews with 26 individuals to (1) understand the extent to which current baseline design and development approaches at SNL incorporate the human dimension and (2) estimate the utility of various options to fully incorporate the human element in SNL work. Results confirmed that current processes do not manage the human component of a system systematically or comprehensively across programs. Although multiple options were seen to have some utility to address this shortcoming, an approach combining human readiness assessments within the existing TRL scale was perceived as relatively more useful for SNL. The study team created a proposed path forward to progress from the current ad hoc, reactive approach to a systematic, comprehensive, and rigorous approach characterized by full consideration of the human component of a system within and across programs and throughout the entire product lifecycle.

42 ENGINEERING↗

Combining Wind Plant Control With Systems Engineering (Presentation)

This presentation was given at the third Wind Energy Systems Engineering Workshop in Boulder, Colorado, and focused on wind plant controls research, combined optimization, a case study on the Princess Amalia Wind Park, results from the case study, and future work.

17 WIND ENERGY↗