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Lithospheric structure in the Pacific geoid

The high degree and order SEASAT geoid in the central Pacific correlates closely with the structure of the cooling lithosphere. Relative changes in plate age across major fracture zones in relatively young seafloor frame the east-west trending pattern formed by the geoid anomalies. The field removal in bathymetry corresponds to removal of some of the low degree and order geoidal components, the step like structure across fracture zones is also removed. The regional thermal subsidence was removed from the bathymetry by subtracting a mean subsidence surface from the observed bathymetry. This produces a residual bathymetry map analogous to the usual residual depth anomaly maps. The residual bathymetry obtained in this way contains shallow depths for young seafloor, and larger depths for older seafloor, thus retaining the structure of the lithosphere while removing the subsidence of the lithosphere.

Marsh, B. D.↗

Modelled and measured strain in mascon basins on the moon

The close association of wrinkle ridges and grabens with mascon basins on the Moon has suggested that the responsible compression and extension resulted from basin subsidence and peripheral flexing of the lithosphere. The distribution of grabens and wrinkle ridges associated with mascon basins has been further used along with elastic plate bending models to constrain the thickness of the lithosphere at the time of their formation. Kinematic models for basin subsidence have also been developed and compared with strains inferred from grabens and wrinkle ridges. Note that kinematic models may be preferable to dynamic models because the strain associated with tectonic features can be compared directly with model predictions and because fewer assumptions are required for their calculations, such as perfect elasticity and specific values of the elastic moduli. Also, if the results from kinematic models compare favorably with the strain estimated across the tectonic features on the Moon, then a global strain field may not be necessary. Herein, the strain inferred for wrinkle ridges and grabens was compared to that calculated from a simple kinematic subsidence model for mascon basins on the Moon.

Golombek, M. P.↗

A Regulation of Tropical Climate by Radiative Cooling as Simulated in a Cumulus Ensemble Model

Responses of tropical atmosphere to low-boundary forcing are investigated in a 2-D cumulus ensemble model (CEM) with an imposed warm-pool and cold-pool SST contrast (deltaSST). The domain-mean vertical motion is constrained to produce heat sink and moisture source as in the observed tropical climate. In a series of experiments, the warm pool SST is specified at different values while the cold pool SST is specified at 26 C. The strength of the circulation increases with increasing deltaSST until deltaSST reaches 3.5 C, and remains unchanged as deltaSST exceeds 3.5 C. The regulation of tropical convection by zonal SST gradient is constrained by the radiative cooling over the cold pool. For deltaSST less than 3.5 C, an enhanced subsidence warming is balanced by a reduced condensation heating over the cold pool. For deltaSST greater than 3.5 C, the subsidence regime expands over the entire cold pool where no condensation heating exist so that a further enhanced subsidence warming can no longer be sustained. The above regulation mechanism is also evident in the change of energy at the top of the atmosphere (TOA) that is dominated by cloud and water vapor greenhouse effect (c (sub LW)) and G (sub clear). The change in shortwave radiation at TOA is largely cancelled between the warm pool and cold pool, likely due to the same imposed vertical motion in our experiments. For deltaSST less than 3.5 C, an increase of deltaSST is associated with a large increase in c (sub Lw) due to increased total clouds in response to enhanced SST-induced circulation. For deltaSST greater than 3.5 C, clouds over the warm pool decrease with increasing SST, and the change in c (sub LW) is much smaller. In both dSST regimes, the change in CLW is larger than the change in G(sub clear) which is slightly negative. However, in the case of uniform warming (deltaSST=0), DeltaG(sub clear), is positive, approximately 5 W per square meters per degree change of SST.

Sui, Chung-Hsiung↗

Warm-Core Intensification Through Horizontal Eddy Heat Transports into the Eye

A simulation of Hurricane Bob (1991) using the PSU/NCAR MM5 mesoscale model with a finest mesh spacing of 1.3 km is used to diagnose the heat budget of the hurricane. Heat budget terms, including latent and radiative heating, boundary layer forcing, and advection terms were output directly from the model for a 6-h period with 2-min frequency. Previous studies of warm core formation have emphasized the warming associated with gentle subsidence within the eye. The simulation of Hurricane Bob confirms subsidence warming as a major factor for eye warming, but also shows a significant contribution from horizontal advective terms. When averaged over the area of the eye, subsidence is found to strongly warm the mid-troposphere (2-9 km) while horizontal advection warms the mid to upper troposphere (5-13 km) with about equal magnitude. Partitioning of the horizontal advective terms into azimuthal mean and eddy components shows that the mean radial circulation does not, as expected, generally contribute to this warming, but that it is produced almost entirely by the horizontal eddy transport of heat into the eye. A further breakdown of the eddy components into azimuthal wave numbers 1, 2, and higher indicates that the warming is dominated by wave number 1 asymmetries, with smaller coming from higher wave numbers. Warming by horizontal eddy transport is consistent with idealized modeling of vortex Rossby waves and work is in progress to identify and clarify the role of vortex Rossby waves in warm-core intensification in both the full-physics model and idealized models.

Braun, Scott A.↗

Responses of Precipitation and Hydrologic Processes to Tropical SST

The goal of the research is to identify the mechanisms in the response of tropical precipitation and atmospheric hydrologic cycle to sea surface temperature (SST) variability at seasonal-to-interannual time scales, and to utilize the knowledge for better understanding of climate feedback processes relevant to global change. As a first step to achieve the goal, we characterize the inter-relationship among convective/stratiform rain, ice/water clouds water vapor, and SST using TRMM satellite data and a cloud-resolving model. We examined the daily hydrologic variables [column water vapor (PW), cloud liquid water (CW), rainfall rates (RR)] as a function of SST using high-resolution data (0.25 x 0.25, daily) derived from TRMM satellite measurements. Comparing the winter of 97/98 (El Nino condition) against the winter of 99/00 (La Nina condition), area-mean values of all four hydrologic variables in cloudy areas within the tropical Pacific are higher in the El Nino winter than in the La Nina winter. This is consistent with previous observational analyses and SST warming experiments (idealized or ENSO-like) that showed the interaction between hydrologic cyclic and radiation at the seasonal to interannual time scales leads to intensified tropical circulation and hydrologic cycle. However, there is evidence that the enhanced hydrologic cycle over the warm pool is accompanied by an expansion of radiatively -driven subsidence in response to a stronger SST gradient between warm pool and surrounding cold pool. The expanding subsidence effectively reduces cloud amounts over the warm pool. Our analysis of daily variability further indicates a more vigorous water cycle characterized by higher PW, CW, and RR in response to overall warming. This is expected from the Clausius Clapeyron relation as a thermodynamic response to warming. However cloudy areas decrease in response to overall warming. This may be due to factors that are fundamentally different. One possibility is that in a warmer climate, there may be alteration in the microphysical processes in clouds, e.g., increased coalescence of cloud size droplets and increased entrainment of dry air from above due to the invigorated convective motions in response to overall warming. As a result, cloud amounts are less. Another interpretation is that, in colder air masses, more ice particles will be produced and, because of their lower densities, are less likely to precipitate, hence the higher cloud amount. This suggests that, when averaged over a sufficiently large area covering both the rising and sinking branches of the tropical circulation, there maybe an increase in the precipitation efficiency in stratiform clouds, in conjunction with increased subsidence in an enhanced water cycle. This is supported by the residence time at different rainrates.

Sui, C.-H.↗

Warm-Core Intensification of a Hurricane Through Horizontal Eddy Heat Transports Inside the Eye

A simulation of Hurricane Bob (1991) using the PSU/NCAR MM5 mesoscale model with a finest mesh spacing of 1.3 km is used to diagnose the heat budget of the hurricane. Heat budget terms, including latent and radiative heating, boundary layer forcing, and advection terms were output directly from the model for a 6-h period with 2-min frequency. Previous studies of warm core formation have emphasized the warming associated with gentle subsidence within the eye. The simulation of Hurricane Bob also identifies subsidence warming as a major factor for eye warming, but also shows a significant contribution from horizontal advective terms. When averaged over the area of the eye, excluding the eyewall (at least in an azimuthal mean sense), subsidence is found to strongly warm the mid-troposphere (2-9 km) while horizontal advection warms the mid to upper troposphere (5-13 km) with about equal magnitude. Partitioning of the horizontal advective terms into azimuthal mean and eddy components shows that the mean radial circulation cannot, as expected, generally contribute to this warming, but that it is produced almost entirely by the horizontal eddy transport of heat into the eye. A further breakdown of the eddy components into azimuthal wave numbers 1, 2, and higher indicates that the warming is dominated by wave number 1 asymmetries, with smaller contributions coming from higher wave numbers. Warming by horizontal eddy transport is consistent with idealized modeling of vortex Rossby waves and work is in progress to identify and clarify the role of vortex Rossby waves in warm-core intensification in both the full-physics model and idealized models.

Braun, Scott A.↗

The Mountains of Io: Global and Geological Perspectives from Voyager and Galileo

To search for local and global scale geologic associations that may be related to the internal dynamics of Io, we have completed a global catalog of all mountains and volcanic centers. We have identified 115 mountain structures (covering approx. 3% of the surface) and 541 volcanic centers, including paterae (calderas and dark spots) and shield volcanoes. The average length of an Ionian mountain is 157 km, with the longest being 570 km. The mean height of Ionian mountains is 6.3 km, and the highest known mountain is Boosaule Montes (17.5 +/- 3 km). Five basic morphologic types of mountains have been identified; mesa, plateau peak, ridge, and massif. Very few mountains bear any physical similarity. to classic volcanic landforms, but many resemble flatiron mountains on Earth and are interpreted as tilted crustal blocks. This would be consistent with the hypothesis that most mountains are thrust blocks formed as a result of compressive stresses built up in the lower crust due to the global subsidence of volcanic layers as they are buried over time. More than one mechanism may be responsible for all Ionian mountains, however. The proximity of some mountains to paterae may indicate a direct link between some mountains and volcanism, although it is not always clear which came first. In contrast to earlier studies, a pronounced bimodal pattern is observed in the global distribution of both mountains and volcanic centers. The regions of highest areal densities of volcanic centers are near the sub- and anti-Jovian regions, but are offset roughly 90deg in longitude from the two, regions of greatest concentration of mountains. This anticorrelation may indicate the overprinting of a second stress field on the global compressive stresses due to subsidence. The bimodal distribution of volcanic centers and mountains is consistent with models of asthenospheric tidal heating and internal convection developed by Tackley et al.Over regions of mantle upwelling, compressive stresses in the lower crust induced by global subsidence might be reduced, encouraging volcanism and discouraging mountain building. In regions of mantle downwelling, these compressive stresses in the lower crust might be increased, discouraging volcanism and encouraging mountain building. Alternatively, the global pattern may be related to possible (but undocumented) nonsynchronous rotation of lo, which would produce two regions each of compression and extension in the crust. Evidence of layering and of mass wasting, including landslides, block sliding, debris aprons and downslope creep, on Ionian mountains suggests that the crust of Io is essentially a layered stack of partially consolidated volcanic lavas and plume deposits, becoming more consolidated with depth. The lower crust especially may also be ductily deformed, punctuated by volcanic intrusions and faulting at paterae, and broken into blocks, some of which have been uplifted to form mountains.

Schenk, Paul↗

[Relationship Between Core Convective Structure and Intensity Change in Tropical Cyclones]

Tropical Storm Chantal during August 2001 was a storm that failed to intensify over the few days prior to making landfall on the Yucatan Peninsula. An observational study of Tropical Storm Chantal is presented using a diverse data set including remote and in situ measurements from the NASA ER-2 and DC-8 and the NOAA WP-3D N42RF aircraft and satellite data. The authors discuss the storm structure from the larger scale environment down to the convective scale. Large vertical shear (850-200 hPa shear magnitude range 8-15 m/s) plays a very important role in preventing Chantal from intensifying. The storm had a poorly defined vortex that only extended up to 5-6 km altitude, and an adjacent intense convective region that comprised an Mesoscale Convective System (MCS). The entire low-level circulation center was in the rain-free western side of the storm, about 80 km to the west-southwest of the MCS. The MCS appears to have been primarily the result of intense convergence between large scale, low-level easterly flow with embedded downdrafts, and the cyclonic vortex flow. The individual cells in the MCS such as Cell 2 during the period of the observations, were extremely intense with reflectivity core diameters of 10 km and peak updrafts exceeding 20 m/s. Associated with this MCS were two broad subsidence (warm) regions both of which had portions over the vortex. The first layer near 700 hPa was directly above the vortex and covered most of it. The second layer near 500 hPa was along the forward and right flanks of Cell 2 and undercut the anvil divergence region above. There was not much resemblance of these subsidence layers to typical upper level warm cores in hurricanes that are necessary to support strong surface winds and a low central pressure. The observations are compared to previous studies of weakly sheared storms and modeling studies of shear effects and intensification. The configuration of the convective updrafts, low-level circulation, and lack of vertical coherence between the upper and low level warming regions, likely inhibited intensification of Chantal. This configuration is consistent with modeling of vortices in sheared environments, which suggest strongest convection and rain in the downshear left quadrant of the storm, and subsidence in the upshear right quadrant. The vertical shear profile is however different from what was assumed in previous modeling in that the winds are strongest in the lowest levels and the deep tropospheric vertical shear is on the order of 10-12 m/s.

Source record↗

Structure of Highly Sheared Tropical Storm Chantal during CAMEX-4

Tropical Storm Chantal during August 2001 was a storm that failed to intensify over the few days prior to making landfall on the Yucatan Peninsula. An observational study of Tropical Storm Chantal is presented using a diverse dataset including remote and in situ measurements from the NASA ER-2 and DC-8 and the NOAA WP-3D N42RF aircraft and satellite. The authors discuss the storm structure from the larger-scale environment down to the convective scale. Large vertical shear (850-200-hPa shear magnitude range 8-15 m/s) plays a very important role in preventing Chantal from intensifying. The storm had a poorly defined vortex that only extended up to 5-6-km altitude, and an adjacent intense convective region that comprised a mesoscale convective system (MCS). The entire low-level circulation center was in the rain-free western side of the storm, about 80 km to the west-southwest of the MCS. The MCS appears to have been primarily the result of intense convergence between large-scale, low-level easterly flow with embedded downdrafts, and the cyclonic vortex flow. The individual cells in the MCS such as cell 2 during the period of the observations were extremely intense, with reflectivity core diameters of 10 km and peak updrafts exceeding 20 m/s. Associated with this MCS were two broad subsidence (warm) regions, both of which had portions over the vortex. The first layer near 700 hPa was directly above the vortex and covered most of it. The second layer near 500 hPa was along the forward and right flanks of cell 2 and undercut the anvil divergence region above. There was not much resemblance of these subsidence layers to typical upper-level warm cores in hurricanes that are necessary to support strong surface winds and a low central pressure. The observations are compared to previous studies of weakly sheared storms and modeling studies of shear effects and intensification. The configuration of the convective updrafts, low-level circulation, and lack of vertical coherence between the upper- and lower-level warming regions likely inhibited intensification of Chantal. This configuration is consistent with modeled vortices in sheared environments, which suggest the strongest convection and rain in the downshear left quadrant of the storm, and subsidence in the upshear right quadrant. The vertical shear profile is, however, different from what was assumed in previous modeling in that the winds are strongest in the lowest levels and the deep tropospheric vertical shear is on the order of 10-12 m/s.

Heymsfield, G. M.↗

Temperatures and Composition in the Saturn System from Cassini CIRS

We summarize recent observations by the Composite Infrared Spectrometer of Saturn, its rings, Titan, and the icy satellites. Limb observations of Saturn show vertical oscillations of temperatures and zonal-wind shears in the equatorial region that may be related to a temporal oscillation similar to the terrestrial QBO and Jupiter's QQO. There is also evidence of subsidence at mid-northern latitudes driven by the equatorial activity. Nadir-viewing observations show compact warm spots in the troposphere and stratosphere at both (summer and winter) poles, likely associated with subsidence. Observations of Titan have defined better the characteristics of the northern winter polar vortex, with 190 m/s winds surrounding a cold atmosphere at 1 microbar. The very warm polar stratopause at 10 microbar and the enhanced abundances of organic compounds suggest subsidence within the vortex. Analysis of the zonal structure in temperature indicates that the stratospheric zonal winds rotate about an axis that is displaced approximately 4.1 deg from the IAU pole. Additional flybys, including a close one in March 2008, continue to characterize the endogenic activity in Enceladus s south polar region. Temperature maps of bright and dark terrains on Iapetus indicate that its ice is approximately stable to sublimation in the bright regions and highly unstable in the dark regions. Thermal mapping of Saturn s rings continues to constrain their composition, and observations at different solar phase angles, spacecraft elevations, solar elevations, and local hour angles have elucidated the effects of ring-particle shadowing and vertical motions on the thermal structure, and revealed the presence of small-scale structure associated with self-gravity wakes.

Flasar, F. Michael↗

Atmospheric Circulation Anomalies During Two Persistent North American Droughts: 1932-1939 and 1948-1957

We use an early twentieth century (1908-1958) atmospheric reanalysis, based on assimilation of surface and sea level pressure observations, to contrast atmospheric circulation during two periods of persistent drought in North America: 1932-1939 (the Dust Bowl) and 1948-1957. Primary forcing for both droughts is believed to come from anomalous sea surface temperatures (SSTs): a warm Atlantic and a cool eastern tropical Pacific. For boreal winter (October-March) in the 1950s, a stationary wave pattern originating from the tropical Pacific is present, with positive centers over the north Pacific and north Atlantic ocean basins and a negative center positioned over northwest North America and the tropical/subtropical Pacific. This wave train is largely absent for the 1930s drought; boreal winter height anomalies are organized much more zonally, with positive heights extending across northern North America. For boreal summer (April-September) during the 1930s, a strong upper level ridge is centered over the Great Plains; this feature is absent during the 1950s and appears to be linked to a weakening of the Great Plains low-level jet (GPLLJ). Subsidence anomalies are co-located over the centers of each drought: in the central Great Plains for the 1930s and in a band extending from the southwest to the southeastern United States for the 1950s. The location and intensity of this subsidence during the 1948-1957 drought is a typical response to a cold eastern tropical Pacific, but for 1932-1939 deviates in terms of the expected intensity, location, and spatial extent. Overall, circulation anomalies during the 1950s drought appear consistent with the expected response to the observed SST forcing. This is not the case for the 1930s, implying some other causal factor may be needed to explain the Dust Bowl drought anomalies. In addition to SST forcing, the 1930s were also characterized by massive alterations to the land surface, including regional-scale devegetation from crop failures and intensive wind erosion and dust storms. Incorporation of these land surface factors into a general circulation model greatly improves the simulation of precipitation and subsidence anomalies during this drought, relative to simulations with SST forcing alone. Even with additional forcing from the land surface, however, the model still has difficulty reproducing some of the other circulation anomalies, including weakening of the GPLLJ and strengthening of the upper level ridge during AMJJAS. This may be due to either weaknesses in the model or uncertainties in the boundary condition estimates. Still, analysis of the circulation anomalies supports the conclusion of an earlier paper (Cook et al. in Proc Natl Acad Sci 106:4997, 2009), demonstrating that land degradation factors are consistent with the anomalous nature of the Dust Bowl drought.

Cook, Benjamin↗

Characterizing Land Surface Change and Levee Stability in the Sacramento-San Joaquin Delta Using UAVSAR Radar Imagery

The Sacramento-San Joaquin Delta is one of the primary water sources for the state of California and represents a complex geographical area comprised of tidal marshland, levee rimmed islands that are used primarily for agriculture, and urban encroachment. Land subsidence has dropped many of the Delta islands 3 to >7 meters below mean sea level and requires nearly 1700 km of levees to maintain the integrity of the islands and flow of water through the Delta. The current average subsidence rates for each island varies, with 1.23 cm/yr on Sherman Island and 2.2 cm/yr for Bacon Island, as determined by ground-based instruments located at isolated points in the Delta. The Delta's status as the most critical water resource for the state, an endangered ecosystem, and an area continuously threatened with levee breakage from hydrostatic pressure and the danger of earthquakes on several major faults in the San Francisco area make it a focus of monitoring efforts by both the state and national government. This activity is now almost entirely done by ground-based efforts, but the benefits of using remote sensing for wide scale spatial coverage and frequent temporal coverage is obvious. The UAVSAR airborne polarimetric and differential interferometric L-band synthetic aperture radar system has been used to collected monthly images of the Sacramento-San Joaquin Delta and much of the adjacent Suisun Marsh since July 2009 to characterize levee stability, image spatially varied subsidence, and assess how well the UAVSAR performs in an area with widespread agriculture production.

geographical area↗

Sea Level Rise in the Samoan Islands Escalated by Viscoelastic Relaxation After the 2009 Samoa-Tonga Earthquake

The Samoan islands are an archipelago hosting a quarter million people mostly residing inthree major islands, Savai'i and Upolu (Samoa), and Tutuila (American Samoa). The islands haveexperienced sea level rise by 2-3 mm/year during the last half century. The rate, however, has dramaticallyincreased following the Mw 8.1 SamoaTonga earthquake doublet (megathrust + normal faulting) inSeptember 2009. Since the earthquake, we found largescale gravity increase (0.5 Gal/year) around theislands and ongoing subsidence (8-16 mm/year) of the islands from our analysis of Gravity Recovery AndClimate Experiment gravity and GPS displacement data. The postseismic horizontal displacement is faster inSamoa, while the postseismic subsidence rate is considerably larger in American Samoa. The analysis oflocal tide gauge records and satellite altimeter data also identified that the relative sea level rise becomesfaster by 7-9 mm/year in American Samoa than Samoa. A simple viscoelastic model with a Maxwellviscosity of 2–3×10(exp 18) Pa s for the asthenosphere explained postseismic deformation at nearby GPS sites aswell as Gravity Recovery And Climate Experiment gravity change. It is found that the constructiveinterference of viscoelastic relaxation from both megathrust and normal faulting has intensified thepostseismic subsidence at American Samoa, causing ~5 times faster sea level rise than the global average.Our model indicates that this trend is likely to continue for decades and result in sea level rise of 30-40 cm,which is independent of and in addition to anticipated climaterelated sea level rise. It will worsen coastalflooding on the islands leading to regular nuisance flooding.

Han, Shin-Chan↗

An Evaluation of Remotely Sensed and In-Situ Data Sufficiency for SGMA-Scale Groundwater Studies in the Central Valley, California

California’s Central Valley aquifer is a critical freshwater resource for the state, providing drinking water to 6.5 million residents and irrigation water for more than half of the nation’s produce. Increasing demands have led to a steady decline of aquifer water levels, leading to irreversible compaction and land subsidence. The Sustainable Groundwater Management Act of California (SGMA), instituted in 2014, requires high-priority regions to establish sustainability plans by 2020-2022 that mitigate groundwater depletion and land subsidence. Many regions within the Central Valley lack groundwater monitoring wells or continuous well data, rendering in-situ monitoring challenging. When combined with other data, NASA’s Gravity Recovery and Climate Experiment (GRACE) and GRACE Follow On (GRACE-FO) missions provide valuable information about groundwater storage changes at a sub-basin scale. Interferometric Surface Aperture Radar (InSAR) measurements can map land subsidence, and Global Positioning System (GPS) can be used to estimate crustal uplift. Yet, all of these measurements have differences in resolution, coverage, discretization, and record length. Here we assess the various datasets that are potentially useful for Central Valley sub-basin groundwater monitoring and provide an analysis of gaps and other issues in regard to their suitability for SGMA-related analysis. Finally, we offer next steps and recommendations on data treatment and integration.

Kyra H Kim↗

Central Valley Water Resources II: Groundwater Sustainability Management Support in the California Central Valley using GRACE and InSAR Datasets

California’s Central Valley is one of the most productive agricultural regions in the United States, producing a fourth of the nation’s food supply. The water demand in this region is heavily dependent on groundwater resources, resulting in over pumping of aquifers at unsustainable rates during recent periods of severe drought. Over the past century, Central Valley aquifers have experienced a significant decline in groundwater levels, resulting in land subsidence and irreversible loss in groundwater storage. In 2014, the state enacted the Sustainable Groundwater Management Act, requiring high and medium priority subbasins to suspend overdraft and achieve sustainable levels of pumping and recharge by 2042.The California Department of Water Resources (DWR) oversees subbasin groundwater management; however, monitoring remains challenging due to sparse and inconsistent in situ data. To assist the DWR, this project developed a user-friendly executable application and an interactive visualization tool to quantify groundwater storage and land subsidence trends using remotely sensed and in situ data. The team utilized NASA’s Gravity Recovery and Climate Experiment (GRACE), GRACE Follow-On (GRACE-FO), Sentinel-1 C-band Synthetic Aperture Radar (C-SAR) interferograms, and Advanced Land Observing Satellite 2 (ALOS-2) Phased Array L-band Synthetic Aperture Radar 2 (PALSAR-2) interferograms in conjunction with well and GPS measurements to analyze groundwater and subsidence trends. GRACE and well data returns produced a strong Pearson correlation of .84, while Sentinel-1 and GPS data returns produced a Pearson correlation of .41 over the entire Central Valley. These findings suggest remotely sensed GRACE and interferometric SAR data can be used in the absence of in situ data.

DEVELOP Project Summary↗

Mass Balance of the Antarctic Ice Sheet 1992–2016: Reconciling Results from GRACE Gravimetry With ICESat, ERS1/2 and Envisat Altimetry

GRACE and ICESat Antarctic mass-balance differences are resolved utilizing their dependencies on corrections for changes in mass and volume of the same underlying mantle material forced by ice-loading changes. Modeled gravimetry corrections are 5.22 times altimetry corrections over East Antarctica (EA) and 4.51 times over West Antarctica (WA), with inferred mantle densities 4.75 and 4.11 g/cu. cm. Derived sensitivities (Sg, Sa) to bedrock motion enable calculation of motion (δB0) needed to equalize GRACE and ICESat mass changes during 2003–08. For EA, δB0 is −2.2 mm/a subsidence with mass matching at 150 Gt/a, inland WA is −3.5 mm/a at 66 Gt/a, and coastal WA is only −0.35 mm/a at −95 Gt/a. WA subsidence is attributed to low mantle viscosity with faster responses to post-LGM deglaciation and to ice growth during Holocene grounding-line readvance. EA subsidence is attributed to Holocene dynamic thickening. With Antarctic Peninsula loss of −26 Gt/a, the Antarctic total gain is 95 ± 25 Gt/a during 2003–08, compared to 144 ± 61 Gt/a from ERS1/2 during 1992–2001. Beginning in 2009, large increases in coastal WA dynamic losses overcame long-term EA and inland WA gains bringing Antarctica close to balance at −12 ± 64 Gt/a by 2012–16.

Antarctic glaciology↗

Cloud Adjustments From Large-Scale Smoke–Circulation Interactions Strongly Modulate the Southeastern Atlantic Stratocumulus-to-Cumulus Transition

Smoke from southern Africa blankets the southeastern Atlantic Ocean from June to October, producing strong and competing aerosol radiative effects. Smoke effects on the transition between overcast stratocumulus and scattered cumulus clouds are investigated along a Lagrangian (air-mass-following) trajectory in regional climate and large eddy simulation models. Results are compared with observations from three recent field campaigns that took place in August 2017: ObseRvations of Aerosols above CLouds and their intEractionS (ORACLES), CLouds and Aerosol Radiative Impacts and Forcing: Year 2017 (CLARIFY), and Layered Atlantic Smoke Interactions with Clouds (LASIC). The case study is set up around the joint ORACLES–CLARIFY flight that took place near Ascension Island on 18 August 2017. Smoke sampled upstream on an ORACLES flight on 15 August 2017 likely entrained into the marine boundary layer later sampled during the joint flight. The case is first simulated with the WRF-CAM5 regional climate model in three distinct setups: (1) FireOn, in which smoke emissions and any resulting smoke–cloud–radiation interactions are included; (2) FireOff, in which no smoke emissions are included; (3) RadOff, in which smoke emissions and their microphysical effects are included but aerosol does not interact directly with radiation. Over the course of the Lagrangian trajectory, differences in free tropospheric thermodynamic properties between FireOn and FireOff are nearly identical to those between FireOn and RadOff, showing that aerosol–radiation interactions are primarily responsible for the free tropospheric effects. These effects are non-intuitive: in addition to the expected heating within the core of the smoke plume, there is also a “banding” effect of cooler temperature (∼1–2 K) and greatly enhanced moisture (>2 g kg−1) at the plume top. This banding effect is caused by a vertical displacement of the former continental boundary layer in the free troposphere in the FireOn simulation resulting from anomalous diabatic heating due to smoke absorption of sunlight that manifests primarily as a few hundred meters per day reduction in large-scale subsidence over the ocean. A large eddy simulation (LES) is then forced with free tropospheric fields taken from the outputs for the WRF-CAM5 FireOn and FireOff runs. Cases are run by selectively perturbing one variable (e.g., aerosol number concentration, temperature, moisture, vertical velocity) at a time to better understand the contributions from different indirect (microphysical), “large-scale” semi-direct (above-cloud thermodynamic and subsidence changes), and “local” semi-direct (below-cloud smoke absorption) effects. Despite a more than 5-fold increase in cloud droplet number concentration when including smoke aerosol concentrations, minimal differences in cloud fraction evolution are simulated by the LES when comparing the base case with a perturbed aerosol case with identical thermodynamic and dynamic forcings. A factor of 2 decrease in background free tropospheric aerosol concentrations from the FireOff simulation shifts the cloud evolution from a classical entrainment-driven “deepening–warming” transition to trade cumulus to a precipitation-driven “drizzle-depletion” transition to open cells, however. The thermodynamic and dynamic changes caused by the WRF-simulated large-scale adjustments to smoke diabatic heating strongly influence cloud evolution in terms of both the rate of deepening (especially for changes in the inversion temperature jump and in subsidence) and in cloud fraction on the final day of the simulation (especially for the moisture “banding” effect). Such large-scale semi-direct effects would not have been possible to simulate using a small-domain LES model alone.

southeast Atlantic Ocean↗

Wrinkle Ridges on Mercury and the Moon Within and Outside of Mascons

Found on all terrestrial planets, wrinkle ridges are anticlines formed by thrust faulting and folding resulting from crustal shortening. The MErcury Surface, Space Environment, Geochemistry, and Ranging (MESSENGER) spacecraft's orbital phase returned high resolution images and topographic data of the previously unimaged northern high latitudes of Mercury where there are large expanses of smooth plains deformed by wrinkle ridges. Concurrently, the Lunar Reconnaissance Orbiter (LRO) is obtaining high resolution images and topographic data covering lunar mare wrinkle ridges. These data allow quantitative comparison of the scale of wrinkle ridges in smooth plains volcanic units on Mercury with mare wrinkle ridges. We evaluate the topographic relief of 300 wrinkle ridges within and outside of mascon basins on the Moon and Mercury. Measured wrinkle ridges range from ~112 to 776 m in relief with a mean of ~350 m (median = ~340 m, n = 150) on Mercury and from ~47 to 678 m in relief with a mean of ~198 m (median = ~168 m, n = 150) on the Moon. Wrinkle ridges on Mercury thus are approximately twice as large in mean relief compared to their counterparts on the Moon. The larger scale of Mercury's wrinkle ridges suggests that their formation can be attributed, in part, to global contraction. As global contraction on the Moon is estimated to be an order of magnitude smaller than on Mercury, the smaller scale of lunar wrinkle ridges suggests they most likely form primarily by load induced subsidence of the mare basalt. Wrinkle ridges located in lunar mascon basins and in the Caloris mascon on Mercury are not statistically significantly different in relief than ridges in non-mascon regions, suggesting comparable levels of contractional strain. The fact that mascon basins do not host wrinkle ridges with greater structural relief relative to non-mascon units may indicate the critical role lithospheric thickness plays in controlling subsidence and contraction of thick volcanic sequences on the Moon and Mercury.

Global contraction↗