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DOE OSTI2025

Development and evaluation of a new 4DEnVar-based weakly coupled ocean data assimilation system in E3SMv2

The development, implementation, and evaluation of a new weakly coupled ocean data assimilation (WCODA) system for the fully coupled Energy Exascale Earth System Model version 2 (E3SMv2) utilizing the four-dimensional ensemble variational (4DEnVar) method are presented in this study. The 4DEnVar method, based on the dimension-reduced projection four-dimensional variational (DRP-4DVar) approach, replaces the adjoint model with the ensemble technique, thereby reducing computational demands. Monthly mean ocean temperature and salinity data from the EN4.2.1 reanalysis are integrated into the ocean component of E3SMv2 from 1950 to 2021 with the goal of providing realistic initial conditions for decadal predictions and predictability studies. The performance of the WCODA system is assessed using various metrics, including the reduction rate of the cost function, root mean square error (RMSE) differences, correlation differences, and model biases. Results indicate that the WCODA system effectively assimilates the reanalysis data into the climate model, consistently achieving negative reduction rates of the cost function and notable improvements in RMSE and correlation across various ocean layers and regions. Significant enhancements are observed in the upper ocean layers across the majority of global ocean regions, particularly in the north Atlantic, north Pacific, and Indian Ocean. Model biases in sea surface temperature and salinity are also substantially reduced. For sea surface temperature, cold biases in the north Pacific and north Atlantic are diminished by about 1–2 °C, and warm biases in the Southern Ocean are corrected by approximately 1.5–2.5 °C. In terms of salinity, improvements are observed with bias reductions of about 0.5–1 psu in the north Atlantic and north Pacific and up to 1.5 psu in parts of the Southern Ocean. The ultimate goal of the WCODA system is to advance the predictive capabilities of E3SM for subseasonal to decadal climate predictions, thereby supporting research on strategic energy-sector policies and planning.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

DOE OSTI2024

The Delicate Balance Redux: The Role of Nuclear Forces, Damage Limitation and Uncertainty in Future U.S.-China Crises

What is the impact of damage limitation capabilities like counterforce and missile defenses on deterrence, when their efficacy in stopping an adversary nuclear attack is uncertain? This is a key unanswered question to understand “how much is enough” for the United States to deter China and Russia in future nuclear crises. In this paper we extend an established, single move game theory model to capture the dynamics of two players in a nuclear crisis having varying damage limitation capabilities with uncertain effectiveness. Our model formalizes the logic of the “delicate balance” school of deterrence, which states that leverage in a crisis is driven by the risk each player can take with their combined strategic forces, and that those risks carry uncertainty as nuclear forces are hard to deliver against technologically advanced adversaries. Our model shows that damage limitation capabilities—even those with significant uncertainty around them like cyber or electronic warfare—can drive bargaining outcomes in an array of nuclear crises. We then apply these bargaining outcomes to the expected U.S.-China strategic balance as China builds out its nuclear force through 2035. We apply published force exchange models to determine the expected damage each side will be able to deliver, and we use these values to determine the likelihood that the U.S. can prevail in crises of varying stakes. Last, we show that U.S. policymakers have an array of options to improve future bargaining outcomes, evaluating how additional nuclear forces trade against improvements in damage limitation.

45 MILITARY TECHNOLOGY, WEAPONRY, AND NATIONAL DEF↗

DOE OSTI2023

Laboratory Directed Research and Development Program: FY 2021 Completed Projects

Oak Ridge National Laboratory (ORNL) is the US Department of Energy’s (DOE’s) largest multiprogram science, technology, and energy laboratory. It possesses distinctive capabilities in neutron science, computing, advanced materials, nuclear science and technology, and other fields. Using these capabilities, ORNL conducts basic and applied R&D to support DOE’s overarching mission “to ensure America’s security and prosperity by addressing its energy, environmental and nuclear challenges through transformative science and technology solutions.”1 As a national resource, ORNL also applies its capabilities and skills to specific needs of other federal agencies and customers through the DOE Strategic Partnership Projects (SPP) Program. Information about the laboratory and its programs is available on the ORNL website.2 The Laboratory Directed Research and Development (LDRD) Program at ORNL operates under the authority of the DOE Order 413.2C, “Laboratory Directed Research and Development,”3 which establishes DOE’s requirements for the program while providing the laboratory director broad flexibility for program implementation. The LDRD Program funds are obtained through a charge to all laboratory programs. Although it represents a relatively small portion of the overall research budget, the LDRD Program plays an essential role in maintaining the laboratory’s ability to respond to national needs. The program allows ORNL to improve its distinctive capabilities and to enhance its ability to conduct cutting-edge R&D. In accordance with the DOE order, R&D projects funded through the LDRD Program at ORNL support the following goals: (1) maintain the scientific and technical vitality of the laboratory; (2) enhance the laboratory’s ability to address future DOE missions; (3) foster creativity and stimulate exploration of forefront areas of science and technology; (4) serve as a proving ground for new concepts in R&D; and (5) support high-risk, potentially high-value R&D. This report provides an overview of the LDRD Program at ORNL in FY 2021 and contains summaries of all LDRD research projects that concluded between October 1, 2020, and September 30, 2021.

99 GENERAL AND MISCELLANEOUS↗

DOE OSTI2020

ZPPR Test Bed (ZTB) Pre-Conceptual Design Report

Authorized by the Nuclear Energy Innovation Capabilities Act (NEICA), the National Reactor Innovation Center (NRIC) provides private sector technology developers access to strategic infrastructures and assets for commercial nuclear energy research, development, demonstration, and deployment activities. The mission is to support a timely and cost-effective path to the licensing and commercialization of new nuclear energy systems. To meet these needs, NRIC is developing two reactor demonstration test beds at Idaho National Laboratory (INL), the ZPPR Test bed (ZTB) and the EBR-II Test bed (ETB). ZTB will support the demonstration of systems that operate at less than 500 kWt. The baseline objective is for the ZPPR Cell to act as a confinement structure capable of siting reactors that utilize Safeguards Category 1 material for operations. The major areas addressed in the pre-conceptual design include: • Installation of an access door • Electrical Power • Heat Removal • Ventilation in the Cell • Reactor Installation Along with the design for ZTB, a concept of operations (COP) has also been developed. The COP is intended to facilitate a common understanding of ideas, challenges, and issues. As systems continue to evolve in complexity System Engineers and Project Directors will utilize and update the COP to develop and sustain a common vision of the system for stakeholders.

11 NUCLEAR FUEL CYCLE AND FUEL MATERIALS↗

DOE OSTI2020

NRIC EBR-II Test Bed Pre-Conceptual Design Report

Authorized by the Nuclear Energy Innovation Capabilities Act (NEICA), the National Reactor Innovation Center (NRIC) provides private sector technology developers access to strategic infrastructures and assets for commercial nuclear energy research, development, demonstration, and deployment activities. The mission is to support a timely and cost-effective path to the licensing and commercialization of new nuclear energy systems. To meet these needs, NRIC is developing two test beds at Idaho National Laboratory (INL). The ZPPR Test bed (ZTB) and the EBR-II Test bed (ETB). The EBR-II test bed will support the demonstration of systems that operate at less than 10 MWt. The baseline objective is for the EBR-II Dome to act as a safety significant containment structure capable of siting reactors that utilize Safeguards Category 4 material for operations. The major areas addressed in the pre-conceptual design include: • Installation of an access door • Electrical Power • Heat Removal • Ventilation in the Dome • Module handling system Along with the design for ETB a concept of operations (COP) has also been developed. The COP is intended to facilitate a common understanding of ideas, challenges, and issues. As systems continue to evolve in complexity System Engineers and Project Directors will utilize the COP to develop and sustain a common vision of the system for stakeholders.

11 NUCLEAR FUEL CYCLE AND FUEL MATERIALS↗

DOE OSTI2026

Laboratory Directed Research and Development Program: FY 2025 Completed Projects

Oak Ridge National Laboratory (ORNL) is the US Department of Energy’s (DOE’s) largest multiprogram science, technology, and energy laboratory. It possesses distinctive capabilities in a variety of fields, such as neutron science, computing, advanced materials, and nuclear science and technology. Using these capabilities, ORNL conducts basic and applied research and development (R&D) to support DOE’s overarching mission “to ensure America’s security and prosperity by addressing its energy, environmental and nuclear challenges through transformative science and technology solutions.” As a national resource, ORNL also applies its capabilities and skills to the specific needs of other federal agencies and customers through the DOE Strategic Partnership Projects (SPP) Program. Information about the laboratory and its programs is available on the ORNL website. The Laboratory Directed Research and Development (LDRD) Program at ORNL operates under the authority of DOE Order 413.2C, Laboratory Directed Research and Development, which establishes DOE’s requirements for the program while providing the laboratory director broad flexibility for program implementation. The LDRD Program funds are obtained through a charge to all laboratory programs. Although it represents a relatively small portion of the overall research budget, the LDRD Program plays an essential role in maintaining the laboratory’s ability to respond to national needs. The program allows ORNL to improve its distinctive capabilities and enhance its ability to conduct cutting-edge R&D. In accordance with the DOE order, R&D projects funded through the LDRD Program at ORNL support the goals of • maintaining the scientific and technical vitality of the laboratory, • enhancing the laboratory’s ability to address future DOE missions, • fostering creativity and stimulating exploration of forefront areas of science and technology, • serving as a proving ground for new concepts in R&D, and • supporting high-risk, potentially high-value R&D. This report provides an overview of the LDRD Program at ORNL in FY 2025 and contains summaries of all the LDRD research projects that concluded between October 1, 2024, and September 30, 2025.

99 GENERAL AND MISCELLANEOUS↗

DOE OSTI2022

Artificial Intelligence Strategy and Implementation [Slides]

LANL strategic activities for AI center on this goal: accelerate development of AI-enabled capabilities for science and security, with focus on developing and applying mission-relevant core AI technologies, creating an AI workforce pipeline and training opportunities, and building AI partnerships and community.

42 ENGINEERING↗

DOE OSTI2024

Laboratory Directed Research and Development Program: FY 2023 Completed Projects Report

Oak Ridge National Laboratory (ORNL) is the US Department of Energy’s (DOE’s) largest multiprogram science, technology, and energy laboratory. It possesses distinctive capabilities in a variety of fields, such as neutron science, computing, advanced materials, and nuclear science and technology. Using these capabilities, ORNL conducts basic and applied research and development (R&D) to support DOE’s overarching mission “to ensure America’s security and prosperity by addressing its energy, environmental and nuclear challenges through transformative science and technology solutions.” As a national resource, ORNL also applies its capabilities and skills to the specific needs of other federal agencies and customers through the DOE Strategic Partnership Projects (SPP) Program. Information about the laboratory and its programs is available on the ORNL website. The Laboratory Directed Research and Development (LDRD) Program at ORNL operates under the authority of the DOE Order 413.2C, Laboratory Directed Research and Development, which establishes DOE’s requirements for the program while providing the laboratory director broad flexibility for program implementation. The LDRD Program funds are obtained through a charge to all laboratory programs. Although it represents a relatively small portion of the overall research budget, the LDRD Program plays an essential role in maintaining the laboratory’s ability to respond to national needs. The program allows ORNL to improve its distinctive capabilities and to enhance its ability to conduct cutting-edge R&D. This report provides an overview of the LDRD Program at ORNL in FY 2023 and contains summaries of all the LDRD research projects that concluded between October 1, 2022, and September 30, 2023.

99 GENERAL AND MISCELLANEOUS↗

DOE OSTI2025

Laboratory Directed Research and Development Program: FY 2024 Completed Projects Report

Oak Ridge National Laboratory (ORNL) is the US Department of Energy’s (DOE’s) largest multiprogram science, technology, and energy laboratory. It possesses distinctive capabilities in a variety of fields, such as neutron science, computing, advanced materials, and nuclear science and technology. Using these capabilities, ORNL conducts basic and applied research and development (R&D) to support DOE’s overarching mission “to ensure America’s security and prosperity by addressing its energy, environmental and nuclear challenges through transformative science and technology solutions.” As a national resource, ORNL also applies its capabilities and skills to the specific needs of other federal agencies and customers through the DOE Strategic Partnership Projects (SPP) Program. Information about the laboratory and its programs is available on the ORNL website. The Laboratory Directed Research and Development (LDRD) Program at ORNL operates under the authority of DOE Order 413.2C, Laboratory Directed Research and Development,3 which establishes DOE’s requirements for the program while providing the laboratory director broad flexibility for program implementation. The LDRD Program funds are obtained through a charge to all laboratory programs. Although it represents a relatively small portion of the overall research budget, the LDRD Program plays an essential role in maintaining the laboratory’s ability to respond to national needs. The program allows ORNL to improve its distinctive capabilities and to enhance its ability to conduct cutting-edge R&D. In accordance with the DOE order, R&D projects funded through the LDRD Program at ORNL support the goals of • maintaining the scientific and technical vitality of the laboratory; • enhancing the laboratory’s ability to address future DOE missions; • fostering creativity and stimulating exploration of forefront areas of science and technology; • serving as a proving ground for new concepts in R&D; and • supporting high-risk, potentially high-value R&D. This report provides an overview of the LDRD Program at ORNL in FY 2024 and contains summaries of all the LDRD research projects that concluded between October 1, 2023, and September 30, 2024.

99 GENERAL AND MISCELLANEOUS↗

DOE OSTI2023

Hydropower Resilience Database for Assessing Microgrid Formation Capability and Enhancing Power Grid Resilience

In the face of increasing frequency of extreme events, enhancing resilience and reliability of energy infrastructure demands innovative solutions. Hydropower, with its inherent generation flexibility and grid-forming capability, offers significant potential for enhancing power grid resilience through the establishment of microgrids. To enable informed decision-making and strategic planning, we present the Hydropower Resilience Database (HRD) that integrates data from various sources such as Oakridge National Laboratory (ORNL) HydroSource, National Inventory of Dams, and US Western Grid database. By integrating relevant information on hydropower plant characteristics, including dams, reservoirs, and connected electrical grid, this resource enables hydropower plant owners, utilities, and community stakeholders to identify and evaluate the feasibility of using hydropower resources in microgrids to support nearby communities and critical infrastructure in various challenging scenarios. Using HRD, a set of metrics are evaluated to quantify the capability of hydropower plants to support essential microgrid functions. An interactive tool is developed using ArcGIS, enabling the visualization and analysis using HRD. Our research contributes to strategic planning efforts for fortifying energy infrastructure, ensuring reliable power supply during disruptions, and advancing the development of robust and resilient energy systems in regions susceptible to grid vulnerabilities.

13 HYDRO ENERGY↗

DOE OSTI2023

Hydropower Resilience Database for Assessing Microgrid Formation Capability and Enhancing Power Grid Resilience

13 HYDRO ENERGY↗

DOE OSTI2023

Production, isolation, and shipment of clinically relevant quantities of astatine-211: A simple and efficient approach to increasing supply

The alpha emitter astatine-211 ( 211 At) is a promising candidate for cancer treatment based on Targeted Alpha (α) Therapy (TAT). A small number of facilities, distributed across the United States, are capable of accelerating α-particle beams to produce 211 At. However, challenges remain regarding strategic methods for shipping 211 At in a form adaptable to advanced radiochemistry reactions and other uses of the radioisotope. Purpose: Our method allows shipment of 211 At in various quantities in a form convenient for further radiochemistry. Procedures: For this study, a 3-octanone impregnated Amberchrom® CG300M resin bed in a column cartridge was used to separate 211 At from the bismuth matrix on site at the production accelerator (Texas A&M) in preparation for shipping. Aliquots of 6 M HNO 3 containing up to ≈2.22 GBq of 211 At from the dissolved target were successfully loaded and retained on columns. Exempt packages (<370 MBq) were shipped to a destination radiochemistry facility, University of Texas MD Anderson Cancer Center, in the form of a convenient air-dried column. Type A packages have been shipped overnight to University of Alabama at Birmingham. Main findings: Air-dried column hold times of various lengths did not inhibit simple and efficient recovery of 211 At. Solution eluted from the column was sufficiently high in specific activity to successfully radiolabel a model compound, 4-(4,4,5,5-tetramethyl-1,3,2-dioxaborolan-2-yl)aniline (1), with 211 At. The method to prepare and ship 211 At described in this manuscript has also been used to ship larger quantities of 211 At a greater distance to University of Alabama at Birmingham. Principal conclusions: The successful proof of this method paves the way for the distribution of 211 At from Texas A&M University to research institutions and clinical oncology centers in Texas and elsewhere. Finally, use of this simple method at other facilities has the potential increase the overall availability of 211 At for preclinical and clinical studies.

62 RADIOLOGY AND NUCLEAR MEDICINE↗

DOE OSTI2024

Automating galaxy morphology classification using k -nearest neighbours and non-parametric statistics

ABSTRACT Morphology is a fundamental property of any galaxy population. It is a major indicator of the physical processes that drive galaxy evolution and in turn the evolution of the entire Universe. Historically, galaxy images were visually classified by trained experts. However, in the era of big data, more efficient techniques are required. In this work, we present a k-nearest neighbours based approach that utilizes non-parametric morphological quantities to classify galaxy morphology in Sloan Digital Sky Survey images. Most previous studies used only a handful of morphological parameters to identify galaxy types. In contrast, we explore 1023 morphological spaces (defined by up to 10 non-parametric statistics) to find the best combination of morphological parameters. Additionally, while most previous studies broadly classified galaxies into early types and late types or ellipticals, spirals, and irregular galaxies, we classify galaxies into 11 morphological types with an average accuracy of ${\sim} 80\!-\!90 \, {{\rm per\, cent}}$ per T-type. Our method is simple, easy to implement, and is robust to varying sizes and compositions of the training and test samples. Preliminary results on the performance of our technique on deeper images from the Hyper Suprime-Cam Subaru Strategic Survey reveal that an extension of our method to modern surveys with better imaging capabilities might be possible.

Mukundan, Kavya↗

DOE OSTI2020

Laboratory Directed Research and Development Program (FY 2019 Annual Summary of Completed Projects)

Oak Ridge National Laboratory (ORNL) is the US Department of Energy’s (DOE’s) largest multiprogram science, technology, and energy laboratory with distinctive capabilities in neutron science, computing, advanced materials, and nuclear science and technology. Using these capabilities, ORNL conducts basic and applied research and development (R&D) to support DOE’s overarching mission to “ensure America’s security and prosperity by addressing its energy, environmental and nuclear challenges through transformative science and technology solutions.” As a national resource, ORNL also applies its capabilities and skills to specific needs of other federal agencies and customers through the DOE Strategic Partnership Projects (SPP) program. Information about the laboratory and its programs is available at the ORNL website. The Laboratory Directed Research and Development (LDRD) program at ORNL operates under the authority of the DOE Order 413.2C, “Laboratory Directed Research and Development,” which establishes DOE’s requirements for the program while providing the laboratory director broad flexibility for program implementation. The LDRD program funds are obtained through a charge to all laboratory programs. ORNL reports on the program status to DOE each year.

99 GENERAL AND MISCELLANEOUS↗

DOE OSTI2021

Nuclear Material Process Modeling at the Y-12 National Security Complex

Dynamic simulation modeling is used at Y-12 to evaluate and forecast nuclear material inventories and production capacities to ensure that future supply can meet mission demand. Model outputs are analyzed by numerous Y-12 organizations and programs and coordinated with NNSA’s Office of Secondary Stage Production Modernization. Data-driven decisions for both short-term and long-term strategic planning for Y-12 mission execution are informed by the model. Dynamic simulation modeling capabilities for Y-12 nuclear material production continue to be expanded and refined.

12 MANAGEMENT OF RADIOACTIVE AND NON-RADIOACTIVE W↗

DOE OSTI2022

Building Initial Dynamic System Models for Digital Twins of the Cryogenic Moderator System at the ORNL Spallation Neutron Source

This work describes the initial development of dynamic system models of the cryogenic moderator system (CMS) of the Spallation Neutron Source (SNS) at ORNL as a part of the ORNL LDRD funded project Building TRANSFORM to Accelerate Digital Twin Applications for Nuclear Systems, LOIS 10563. The goal of the work is to start the dynamic system modeling effort with the end goal of using them for real-time applications as digital twins. The CMS is a cryogenic liquid hydrogen flow loop that provides moderation of the neutrons that are generated by the SNS. For optimal neutron production, the CMS needs to maintain a steady and controlled density of cryogenic hydrogen in the moderator section thus requiring precise temperature and pressure control. Due to the varied time scales and system characteristics, control of the system is complex, and diagnostics are also difficult. Difficulty in accessing the flow loop during operations, limited instrumentation and unknown design details of the equipment combine to make the case for having sophisticated digital twin models of the system. Operationally the CMS also provides a strong use case for digital twins due to the constant need of optimization and for troubleshooting/diagnostics. The large amount of data collected which are freely available for using in building the model and verifying and validating the model also makes it a great candidate for a proof-of-concept for digital twins. The project extends ORNL's capacity of development and implementation of the open-source dynamic system modeling tool TRANSFORM for engineering design and digital twin/real-time applications. Specific system configuration data for the CMS have been gathered and an initial dynamic model was created in the TRANSFORM library using Dymola as the solution platform. Models of increasing complexity are created to demonstrate the need for a multi-layered approach in digital twin modeling depending on the scale and phenomena being focused on. The dynamic modeling is shown to bring the dynamic operational aspects to the design process for systems as well as serve as a digital twin to the hardware and allow for models to be tuned and compared against real time operational data. These aims should help to push forward strategic goals of application of digital twins and increase the impact of ORNL systems modeling capabilities with TRANSFORM/Modelica for various advanced energy systems.

42 ENGINEERING↗

DOE OSTI2025

Implications of AI and Data Center Service Demand on Energy, Water, and Economic Systems

This talk focuses on the challenges posed by the rapid growth of data centers (DCs), which rely heavily on electricity, water, land, and mineral resources, and have significant interactions with economic growth. The U.S. leads in DC deployment, but understanding how resource demands and constraints impact DC expansion requires strategic multisector analysis. To address this, the talk introduces a new conceptual framework and modeling capability within GCAM-USA, allowing integrated analysis of DC service demand, electricity, and direct and indirect water needs under varied scenarios. Insights include state-level water and electricity trends for DCs, uncertainty bounds, and the broader implications for resources and economics.

Data Centers↗

DOE OSTI2023

Optimal Strategies for Hybrid Battery‐Storage Systems Design

As stationary hybrid energy‐storage systems (HESS) for power systems applications have recently drawn interest due to their enhanced performance and decreasing cost, developing systematic approaches for HESS design while considering controls is gaining traction. Herein, a method is presented to optimally design hybrid battery storage by proposing a mathematical modeling framework, formulated as a mixed integer linear programming model. The optimization is capable of handling multiple subsystems of batteries, considering their economic and technological performance. Decisions involve sizing of the batteries, optimal temporal and strategic dispatch to end uses, and energy sources for charging each battery. The applicability of the model is tested on four case studies for three battery chemistries representing distinct objectives: high‐power, high‐energy, and second life. Compared to traditionally designed battery storage with a homogeneous battery, optimally designed hybrid systems can save 12%–26% of system costs, depending on the nature of the dispatch profile. Findings point to design preference toward the second life battery supplemented with some high‐power or high‐energy battery capacity, or both. With the utilized electricity price structure, customers can experience approximately 10%–35% reduction in their bills.

Koleva, Mariya↗