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At least 73 records · Page 4
All sourcesNASA NTRSDOE OSTI
NASA NTRS2024

Alignment of NASA’s Human System Risks with Technological Capability Gaps to Enable Integrated Research and Technology Development Strategic Planning

BACKGROUND: Radiation, reduced gravity, distance from earth, isolation and confinement, and habitation within artificially created and controlled life support environments are hazards that present risk to human space explorers. NASA’s Human System Risk Board (HSRB) maintains a set of twenty-nine different Human System Risks with subject matter experts from across the agency providing regular updates to the estimated likelihood and consequence associated with each risk. The Human Research Program (HRP) has historically used these risk classifications as a primary basis for identifying and prioritizing human research investments aimed at characterizing and/or mitigating the respective human system risks. In many cases, technology development is required to mature and validate risk mitigation strategies, however, NASA’s primary technology development programs have not typically used Human System Risks as a basis for strategic planning. A primary function of the Environmental Control and Life Support Systems (ECLSS) – Crew Health and Performance (CHP) System Capability Leadership Team (SCLT) is to continually identify, review, and update technological capability gaps and to establish and oversee multiyear strategic roadmaps aimed at guiding NASA’s technology development priorities in these areas. These roadmaps are intended to be agency-wide and independent of any program, directorate, or other organization within NASA. DESCRIPTION: The SCLT and HRP collaborated to establish a set of Human System Capability Gaps, which establish a formal linkage between the capability gaps used to prioritize investments across much of NASA, and the Human System Risks that are primarily used to inform and prioritize human research. This set of twenty-eight gaps was developed by subject matter experts, and each gap mapped to the primary associated Human System Risks. The gaps and risk mapping were then reviewed and approved via the HSRB, thereby formally aligning the research-focused Human System Risks with the technology-focused capability gaps. DISCUSSION: This effort has enabled development of integrated roadmaps and budget coordination with research and technology development activities that are formally linked to agency-recognized capability gaps and Human System Risks. Close and ongoing coordination between the SCLT, HRP, Mars Campaign Office, and the Health & Medical Technical Authority (HMTA) is essential to ensure alignment and prioritization of CHP-related research and technology development to enable NASA’s future exploration missions.

Andrew F J Abercromby↗
DOE OSTI2020

Component Development for Alkaline URFCS

Performance, cost, and durability of the catalyst materials are the key factors that govern the commercialization of H 2 -based energy devices such as unitized regenerative fuel cells (URFCs). URFCs offer the advantage of high energy density vs. existing battery systems. In addition, with the use of an alkaline URFC system, lower system costs can be achieved through the use of platinum group metalfree (PGM-free) materials. This project seeks to address the major obstacles faced in URFC systems and establish a URFC technical capability through the strategic partnership between USC and SRNL. The research focuses on the development of low-PGM and PGM-free based bifunctional oxygen catalysts and electrodes, as well as the development of a URFC testing capability at SRNL.

36 MATERIALS SCIENCE↗
DOE OSTI2021

Component Development for Alkaline URFCs

Performance, cost, and durability of the catalyst materials are the key factors that govern commercialization of H 2 -based energy conversion devices such as unitized regenerative fuel cells (URFCs). Compared to existing battery systems, URFCs offer superior energy density and performance over prolonged operation. In addition, alkaline URFC systems, can utilize low-cost platinum group metal-free (PGM-free) catalysts, resulting in much lower overall system costs. This project seeks to address the major obstacles faced in URFC systems such as cost and efficiency and establish a URFC technical capability through the strategic partnership between UofSC and SRNL. The research focuses on the development of low-PGM and PGM-free based bifunctional oxygen catalysts and electrodes, as well as the development of a URFC testing capability at SRNL.

25 ENERGY STORAGE↗
NASA NTRS2005

National Research Council Dialogue to Assess Progress on NASA's Systems Engineering Cost/Risk Analysis Capability Roadmap Development: General Background and Introduction

Contents include the following: General Background and Introduction of Capability. Roadmaps for Systems Engineering Cost/Risk Analysis. Agency Objectives. Strategic Planning Transformation. Review Capability Roadmaps and Schedule. Review Purpose of NRC Review. Capability Roadmap Development (Progress to Date).

Regenie, Victoria↗
DOE OSTI2022

Contentious narratives and disinformation about nuclear weapons in strategic deterrence and competition: A SOCOM perspective. Part of Section: United States Special Operations Command (USSOCOM) in Emerging Strategic & Geopolitical Challenges: Operational Implications for US Combatant Commands

Russia’s “special military operation” in Ukraine demonstrates the challenge for strategic deterrence and competition of countering contentious narratives and disinformation about weapons of mass destruction (WMD) during conventional regional wars against a nucleararmed adversary. Moscow uses both tailored, contentious narratives and targeted disinformation about WMD in Ukraine to influence and disrupt local and global perceptions in support of its deterrence and competition objectives vis-à-vis the United States and NATO. Since December 2021, Moscow has made a focal point of chemical, biological, radiological, and nuclear weapons in its efforts to establish a permissive environment for its military buildup on the border with Ukraine and then its military intervention. These information tactics also demonstrate an opportunity for US Special Operations Forces (SOF). They are a case study for considering how SOF can contribute to strategic deterrence and competition objectives, specifically countering adversary gray-zone information efforts to alter regional security orders.1 Such a role is in line with the 2022 Special Operations Forces Vision and Strategy, which provides a framework for the evolution of SOF into “a force capable of creating strategic, asymmetric advantages for the nation as a key contributor of integrated deterrence” (United States Special Operations Command, 2022). This paper briefly examines this strategic challenge and SOF opportunity, focusing narrowly on the distinction between contentious narratives and disinformation about nuclear weapons and the role of SOF in countering these gray-zone information tactics. The nuclear dimension of Moscow’s contentious narratives and disinformation in the “special military operation” is of particular interest because it demonstrates the distinction between strategic efforts to influence and disrupt local and global perceptions in Moscow’s favor. This distinction between influence and disruption is less clear with Russia’s contentious narratives and disinformation about chemical and biological weapons in Ukraine, as disinformation about these two types of WMD appears to overwhelm contentious narratives. We believe this distinction is useful for policymakers and warfighters responsible for countering gray-zone information tactics because it provides a framework for crafting tailored responses to contentious narratives and disinformation about nuclear weapons and other WMD. The chapter concludes with a discussion of efforts that could be undertaken by SOF in cooperation with other relevant stakeholders to address this aspect of adversary gray-zone information tactics.

29 ENERGY PLANNING, POLICY, AND ECONOMY↗
DOE OSTI2024

US Perspectives on the Conventional/Nuclear Interactions and the Impacts on Nuclear Escalation Risks and Future Arms Control Prospects

This short paper is organized around a few discrete questions. How have U.S. perspectives on conventional and nuclear interactions evolved in recent years? How have these changing perspectives shaped U.S. thinking on perceived nuclear escalation risks with Russia, both long standing and newly emerged? And finally, what do these U.S. perceptions of interactions and risks mean for future potential arms control either in the conventional or nuclear arena? The answers to these questions appear to show some promise for future work in this area. Conventional and nuclear interactions are increasing, and thus the two domains cannot be kept as deliberately or artificially separated as in the past. There is a growing mutual recognition regarding the interplay between conventional and nuclear capabilities in the strategic stability equation. There is also an increasingly shared recognition in the United States and Russia that nuclear escalation risks are likely to originate in conventional crises or conflict, placing an imperative on some form of conflict prevention procedures at the lower end of the spectrum. This requirement suggests some potential areas for risk reduction measures outside of those traditionally considered in conventional and nuclear arms control over the past several decades.

98 NUCLEAR DISARMAMENT, SAFEGUARDS, AND PHYSICAL P↗
NASA NTRS2011

The Space Review

Human space flight in the US and other space-faring countries is faced with a twin challenge that is likely to persist for many years: flat or declining budgets along with an expectation of continuing, significant achievements. A partial solution may involve increased participation by multiple commercial competitors with the promise - albeit yet to be fully demonstrated - of much-reduced costs. That said, most commercial goals are concentrated on low-Earth orbit (LEO) for the time being, leaving human trips beyond Earth orbit (BED) as governmental initiatives. The past decade, beginning with the 1999/2000 Decadal Planning Team (DPT)/NASA Exploration Team (NExT) human space flight studies for the White House Office of Management and Budget (http://history.nasa.gov/DPT/DPT.htm), can arguably be described as a Golden Age of engineering design, strategic planning, technology capability prioritization, and development programs on the International Space Station (ISS). However, cynics have criticized the same period as little more than PowerPoint presentations, and unfocused technology investments with only limited progress toward a goal of human space flight beyond the immediate vicinity of the Earth. We disagree with the cynics. Experience with the ISS on increasingly sophisticated capabilities have prepared international partners to deploy a major "stepping stone" for human space flight: a habitation system in free space beyond low-Earth orbit. Such an achievement would be a major milestone in human space flight and, very likely, an essential demonstration site for subsequent, very ambitious exploration missions such as to Mars. Developing critical capabilities for human voyages beyond LEO, such as Earth-Moon libration points, offers, as just one example, easy return to Earth within days (see, e.g., Farquhar 1971 (Aeronautics & Astronautics, July, p. 59ff), Thronson, Lester, and Talay 2011 (http://www.thespacereview.com/article/1756/1), and Lester 2012 (http://www.thespacereview.com/article/1650/1). Use of Earth-Moon libration points as sites for early demonstrations of capabilities necessary for human missions to Mars, for example, contrasts sharply with using missions to near-Earth asteroids (NEAs) for that purpose.

Thronson, Harley↗
NASA NTRS2013

A Proposed Approach for Prioritizing Maintenance at NASA Centers

The National Aeronautics and Space Administration (NASA) manages a vast array of infrastructure assets across ten National Centers with a worth of at least 30 billion dollars. Eighty percent of this infrastructure is greater than 40 years old and is in degraded condition. Maintenance budgets are typically less than one percent of current replacement value (CRV), much less than the 2-4% recommended by the National Research Council. The maintenance backlog was 2.55 billion dollars in FY10 and growing. NASA s annual budgets have flattened and are at risk of being reduced, so the problem is becoming even more difficult. NASA Centers utilize various means to prioritize and accomplish maintenance within available budgets, though data is suspect and processes are variable. This paper offers a structured means to prioritize maintenance based on mission criticality and facility performance (ability of the facility to deliver on its purpose). Mission alignment is assessed using the current timeframe Mission Dependence Index and a measure of facility alignment with the 2011 NASA Strategic Plan for the long-term perspective. Facility performance is assessed by combining specific findings from a structured facility condition assessment and an assessment of actual functional output. These are then combined in a matrix to identify the facilities most critical to mission and able to deliver services. The purpose of this approach is to provide the best benefits for the available funding. Additionally, this rationale can also be applied to the prioritization of investment (recapitalization) projects so that the ultimate customers of this paper, the senior infrastructure managers at each NASA Center, are better able to strategically manage their capabilities.

Dunn, Steven C.↗
NASA NTRS2005

National Research Council Dialogue to Assess Progress on NASA's Transformational Spaceport and Range Technologies Capability Roadmap Development: General Background and Introduction

Viewgraphs on the National Research Council's diaglog to assess progress on NASA's transformational spaceport and range technologies capability roadmap development is presented. The topics include: 1) Agency Goals and Objectives; 2) Strategic Planning Transformation; 3) Advanced Planning Organizational Roles; 4) Public Involvement in Strategic Planning; 5) Strategic Roadmaps; 6) Strategic Roadmaps Schedule; 7) Capability Roadmaps; 8) Capability Charter; 9) Process for Team Selection; 10) Capability Roadmap Development Schedule Overview; 11) Purpose of NRC Review; 12) Technology Readiness Levels; 13) Capability Readiness Levels; 14) Crosswalk Matrix Trans Spaceport & Range; 15) Example linkage to other roadmaps; 16) Capability Readiness Levels Defined; and 17) Crosswalk Matrix Ratings Work In-progress.

Skelly, Darin M.↗
NASA NTRS2023

Identifying and Closing Medical Capability Gaps for Human Spaceflight Missions Beyond Low Earth Orbit

BACKGROUND: Features of human space missions beyond low Earth orbit such as increasing distance from Earth, lack of real-time communication, and limited or no evacuation or resupply capability are expected to drive an increase in medical risk and require crews to operate in an increasingly autonomous fashion. A diverse set of stakeholders at NASA are seeking to fund the development of concepts of operations, medical requirements, and medical capabilities for such missions. However, a systematic approach to identification of current medical capability gaps and a strategic framework to gap closure is needed. OVERVIEW: The Exploration Medical Integrated Product Team (XMIPT) has developed a list of nine high-level medical capability gaps and associated activities required for gap closure. The list was derived based on inputs from subject matter experts at NASA including flight surgeons, other clinical providers, as well as operational and research communities regarding medical capabilities required to support human missions to the Moon and the Mars surface. Responses were reviewed and distilled to identify common themes across capabilities. To ensure alignment with established human system risks, the gap list was further refined based on inputs from NASA’s Human System Risk Board. Relevant medical gap closure activities outside of those funded by the XMIPT were identified through solicitation of inputs from Elements of NASA’s Human Research Program (particularly Exploration Medical Capability), the broader medical operations community, and other stakeholders. This medical capability gap list is reviewed and updated regularly as new information becomes available or new stakeholders are identified. DISCUSSION: The medical capability gap list has matured to include a large group of NASA stakeholders and development activities. This has enabled articulation of priorities to funding entities and programmatic stakeholders, while serving as an accessible resource summarizing gap closure activities, relevant programmatic infusion points, and opportunities for collaboration between stakeholders. This presentation will provide an overview of the nine NASA medical capability gaps and their associated gap closure activities.

Moriah Thompson↗
DOE OSTI2024

Integrating quantum computing resources into scientific HPC ecosystems

Quantum Computing (QC) offers significant potential to enhance scientific discovery in fields such as quantum chemistry, optimization, and artificial intelligence. Yet QC faces challenges due to the noisy intermediate-scale quantum era’s inherent external noise issues. Here, this paper discusses the integration of QC as a computational accelerator within classical scientific high-performance computing (HPC) systems. By leveraging a broad spectrum of simulators and hardware technologies, we propose a hardware-agnostic framework for augmenting classical HPC with QC capabilities. Drawing on the HPC expertise of the Oak Ridge National Laboratory (ORNL) and the HPC lifecycle management of the Department of Energy (DOE), our approach focuses on the strategic incorporation of QC capabilities and acceleration into existing scientific HPC workflows. This includes detailed analyses, benchmarks, and code optimization driven by the needs of the DOE and ORNL missions. Our comprehensive framework integrates hardware, software, workflows, and user interfaces to foster a synergistic environment for quantum and classical computing research. This paper outlines plans to unlock new computational possibilities, driving forward scientific inquiry and innovation in a wide array of research domains.

75 CONDENSED MATTER PHYSICS, SUPERCONDUCTIVITY AND↗
NASA NTRS2010

Ensuring US National Aeronautics Test Capabilities

U.S. leadership in aeronautics depends on ready access to technologically advanced, efficient, and affordable aeronautics test capabilities. These systems include major wind tunnels and propulsion test facilities and flight test capabilities. The federal government owns the majority of the major aeronautics test capabilities in the United States, primarily through the National Aeronautics and Space Administration (NASA) and the Department of Defense (DoD). However, changes in the Aerospace landscape, primarily the decrease in demand for testing over the last 20 years required an overarching strategy for management of these national assets. Therefore, NASA established the Aeronautics Test Program (ATP) as a two-pronged strategic initiative to: (1) retain and invest in NASA aeronautics test capabilities considered strategically important to the agency and the nation, and (2) establish a strong, high level partnership with the DoD. Test facility utilization is a critical factor for ATP because it relies on user occupancy fees to recover a substantial part of the operations costs for its facilities. Decreasing utilization is an indicator of excess capacity and in some cases low-risk redundancy (i.e., several facilities with basically the same capability and overall low utilization). However, low utilization does not necessarily translate to lack of strategic importance. Some facilities with relatively low utilization are nonetheless vitally important because of the unique nature of the capability and the foreseeable aeronautics testing needs. Unfortunately, since its inception, the customer base for ATP has continued to shrink. Utilization of ATP wind tunnels has declined by more than 50% from the FY 2006 levels. This significant decrease in customer usage is attributable to several factors, including the overall decline in new programs and projects in the aerospace sector; the impact of computational fluid dynamics (CFD) on the design, development, and research process; and the reductions in wind tunnel testing requirements within the largest consumer of ATP wind tunnel test time, the Aeronautics Research Mission Directorate (ARMD). Retirement of the Space Shuttle Program and recent perturbations of NASA's Constellation Program will exacerbate this downward trend. Therefore it is crucial that ATP periodically revisit and determine which of its test capabilities are strategically important, which qualify as low-risk redundancies that could be put in an inactive status or closed, and address the challenges associated with both sustainment and improvements to the test capabilities that must remain active. This presentation will provide an overview of the ATP vision, mission, and goals as well as the challenges and opportunities the program is facing both today and in the future. We will discuss the strategy ATP is taking over the next five years to address the National aeronautics test capability challenges and what the program will do to capitalize on its opportunities to ensure a ready, robust and relevant portfolio of National aeronautics test capabilities.

Marshall, Timothy J.↗
DOE OSTI2023

Laboratory Directed Research and Development Program FY 2020 Annual Summary of Completed Projects

ORNL has established a program with four complementary subprograms to meet its LDRD objectives and to fulfill the particular needs of the laboratory. A provision for multiple routes of access to ORNL LDRD funds maximizes the likelihood that novel ideas with scientific and technological merit will be recognized and supported. The ORNL LDRD Program comprises the following four subprograms: 1) The Director’s R&D Program supports projects that advance research frontiers, capabilities, and expertise at ORNL in key strategic areas. 2) The Seed Program supports innovative high-risk/high-reward research to the proof-of-principle stage. 3) The Strategic Hire Program supports the research of key new staff whose expertise and capabilities address a critical strategic need for the laboratory. 4) The Distinguished Staff Fellowships assist the laboratory in bringing in exceptional early-career scientists to refresh and expand its scientific and technical expertise. The total ORNL LDRD Program budget authorized by DOE for FY 2020 was $\$$55 million. FY 2020 allocations totaled $\$$52.5 million and supported 153 projects. An additional $\$$95,827 was allocated to administrative costs for conducting proposal reviews. Overall, 96.4% of the allocated funds were spent. The expenditure of $\$$50.6 million was about 3.2% of the laboratory’s total budget of $\$$1,572 million for operating and capital expenses, which is well below the maximum of 6% allowed by DOE Order 413.2C and is in accordance with Section 309 of Division D of the Consolidated Appropriations Act.

99 GENERAL AND MISCELLANEOUS↗
NASA NTRS2020

Strategic Perspectives on the Future of Systems Engineering at NASA

NASA’s Model-Based Systems Engineering (MBSE) Infusion and Modernization Initiative (MIAMI) chartered a strategy group comprising early to mid-career NASA subject matter experts with diverse experiences to look into the future of systems engineering at NASA. The purpose of the group was to provide a vision for the future state of systems engineering practices and to develop a strategic plan to enable the evolution of the art up to 20 years in the future. The group used a design thinking approach to gather ideas and obtained insight into current engineering processes and domain outlook by interviewing engineers of varying expertise and experiences who had worked on teams of different sizes for missions large and small. The group built a roadmap to highlight future needs, projected capabilities, and technology and competency gaps and developed a strategic plan to ensure the expedient introduction of these capabilities. The resulting strategic plan recommends capability development and workforce strategies and provides guidance for Agency-wide SE policy. Artifacts, details, and raw data from the strategy team’s work are contained in NASA/TM-20205002911/SUPPL, Strategic Perspectives on the Future of Systems Engineering at NASA: Supplemental Information: Appendixes A to K.

Anupa R Bajwa↗
NASA NTRS2010

An Overview of the NASA Aeronautics Test Program Strategic Plan

U.S. leadership in aeronautics depends on ready access to technologically advanced, efficient, and affordable aeronautics test capabilities. These systems include major wind tunnels and propulsion test facilities and flight test capabilities. The federal government owns the majority of the major aeronautics test capabilities in the United States, primarily through the National Aeronautics and Space Administration (NASA) and the Department of Defense (DoD), however an overarching strategy for management of these national assets was needed. Therefore, in Fiscal Year (FY) 2006 NASA established the Aeronautics Test Program (ATP) as a two-pronged strategic initiative to: (1) retain and invest in NASA aeronautics test capabilities considered strategically important to the agency and the nation, and (2) establish a strong, high level partnership with the DoD Test Resources Management Center (TRMC), stewards of the DoD test and evaluation infrastructure. Since then, approximately seventy percent of the ATP budget has been directed to underpin fixed and variable costs of facility operations within its portfolio and the balance towards strategic investments in its test facilities, including maintenance and capability upgrades. Also, a strong guiding coalition was established through the National Partnership for Aeronautics Testing (NPAT), with governance by the senior leadership of NASA s Aeronautics Research Mission Directorate (ARMD) and the DoD's TRMC. As part of its strategic planning, ATP has performed or participated in many studies and analyses, including assessments of major NASA and DoD aeronautics test capabilities, test facility condition evaluations and market research. The ATP strategy has also benefitted from unpublished RAND research and analysis by Ant n et al. (2009). Together, these various studies, reports and assessments serve as a foundation for a new, five year strategic plan that will guide ATP through FY 2014. Our vision for the future is a balanced portfolio of aeronautics ground and flight test capabilities that advance U.S. leadership in aeronautics in the short and long term. Key to the ATP vision is the concept of availability, not necessarily ownership; that is, NASA does not have to own and operate all facilities that are envisioned for future aeronautics testing. However, ATP will enable access to capabilities which are needed but not owned by NASA through strategic partnerships and reliance agreements. This paper will outline the major aspects of the ATP strategic plan for achieving its mission.

Marshall, Timothy J.↗
NASA NTRS2003

Evaluation of Critical Care Monitor Technology During the US Navy Strong Angel Exercise

The NASA critical path road map identifies "trauma and acute medical problems" as a clinical capability risk category (http://criticalDath.isc.nasa.gov). Specific risks include major trauma, organ laceration or contusion, hemoperitoneum, pulmonary failure, pneumo- and hemothorax, burn, open bone fracture, blunt head trauma, and penetrating injury. Mitigation of these risks includes the capability for critical care monitoring. Currently, the International Space Station (ISS) Crew Health Care System (CHeCS) does not provide such a capability. The Clinical Space Medicine Strategic Planning Forum (4/8/97), sponsored by NASA Medical Operations, identified the development of trauma care capabilities as one of the top priorities for space medicine. The Clinical Care Capability Development Project (CCCDP) subsequently undertook the task to address this need.

Johannesen, John↗
NASA NTRS2017

Evaluation of Integrated Demand Management Looking into Strategic & Tactical Flow Management

The motivation behind Integrated Demand Management (IDM) research is to explore possible improvements to United States National Airspace System (NAS) performance that could be realized through procedural integration of strategic traffic flow management capabilities, such as the Collaborative Trajectory Options Program (CTOP), and tactical capabilities, such as Time Based Flow Management (TBFM). An initial IDM concept for clear weather operations was developed and evaluated for potential benefits, including efficiency, delay reduction, predictability and throughput, and to identify any major issues that might represent a showstopper for a fielded application. Newark Liberty International Airport (EWR) arrival operations provided a use case for concept development. EWR uses miles-in-trail (MIT) metering to regulate demand into TBFM during high volume operations, and short-haul flights are often penalized with excessive, last-minute ground delays when the overhead stream is saturated. IDM addresses this problem by replacing MIT conditioning with CTOP to better manage the demand delivery to the TBFM entry points. A quasi-real time high-fidelity simulation that would normally involve participants was conducted using heuristic-based procedures that mimicked operators behaviors instead. Five total conditions were compared: two baseline conditions with MIT delivery to TBFM entry points using two different TBFM settings; and three IDM conditions: one with airborne speed control using an Required Time of Arrival (RTA) capability, a second without RTA, and a third with no wind forecast errors. Results suggest that the IDM concept can deliver traffic more efficiently by shifting the delays from airborne to ground for both RTA and non-RTA conditions, while maintaining a target throughput rate. The results also suggest that with good predictability of airport capacity, excessive TBFM ground delay can be minimized by applying more strategic CTOP delay, increasing predictability for the airline operators. Overall, the results indicate that the implementation of an IDM concept under clear weather conditions can improve NAS system performance. Future IDM research aims to expand the concept to address demandcapacity imbalance d severe weather.

Time-Based Flow Management (TBFM)↗
DOE OSTI2024

Average and Marginal Capacity Credit Values of Renewable Energy and Battery Storage in the United States Power System

As deployment of renewable resources and storage continue to significantly grow in the coming decades, these technologies will play increasingly important roles in maintaining power systems' resource adequacy. Few analyses so far offer comprehensive comparisons of forward-looking average and marginal capacity credits of variable renewable energy and storage in the U.S. interconnections across a wide range of possible futures. To fill this research gap, we quantify the average and marginal capacity credits of solar PV, onshore and offshore wind, and batteries between 2026 and 2050 across the U.S power systems to examine the temporal trends, spatial patterns, and trade-offs between these two capacity accreditation approaches. Across technologies, capacity credits of solar PV most clearly follow downward trends over time, reflecting the significant rise in solar PV generation share as the grid decarbonizes. While battery storages' generation shares also rise significantly over time, their capacity credits always remain stably high due to their capabilities to be dispatched strategically during critical periods to maintain reliability. On the other hand, capacity credits of wind technologies in general follow slight upward trends as their generation shares level off. There are strong spatial variabilities of both average and marginal capacity credits across technologies, but capacity credits of solar PV displaying the most obvious spatial patterns with high capacity credits concentrating in wind-rich, solar-poor regions in SPP, PJM, and MISO, suggesting potential reliability benefits of interconnection-wide planning for renewable energy deployments. Additionally, except for offshore wind, average capacity credits of all other renewable technologies tend to be higher than their marginal capacity credits, indicating that existing renewable resources tend to be accredited higher than new resources at almost any time.

25 ENERGY STORAGE↗