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Search indexed NASA NTRS and DOE OSTI research on propulsion, heat transfer, battery materials and energy systems. Follow report and document links to the original sources.

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At least 73 records · Page 4
All sourcesNASA NTRSDOE OSTI
DOE OSTI2025

Spatially explicit terrestrial carbon densities for calibrating the carbon cycle in human-Earth system Models

Soil and vegetation carbon stocks play a critical role in human-Earth system models. These stocks (denominated as densities in MgC/ha) affect variables such as land use change emissions and also influence land use change pathways under climate forcing scenarios where terrestrial carbon is assigned a carbon price. Here we present reharmonized soil and vegetation carbon densities both at the 5-arcmin resolution grid cell level and also aggregated to 235 water sheds for 4 land use types (Cropland, Grazed land, Urban land and unmanaged vegetation) and 15 unmanaged land cover types. Moreover, we use the distribution of carbon within and across pixels to define statistical "states" of carbon, once again differentiated by land type. These statistical states are used to define a range of possible carbon values that can be used for defining initial conditions of soil and vegetation carbon in human-Earth system models. We implement these data in a state-of-the-art multi sector dynamics model, namely the Global Change Analysis Model (GCAM), and show that these new data improve several land use responses, especially when terrestrial carbon is assigned a carbon price.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2024

End-Use Savings Shapes Upgrade Package Documentation: Wall and Roof Insulation, New Windows, LED Lighting, HP-RTU and ASHP-Boiler

Building on the successfully completed effort to calibrate and validate the U.S. Department of Energy’s ResStock™ and ComStock™ models over the past 3 years, the objective of this work is to produce national data sets that empower analysts working for federal, state, utility, city, and manufacturer stakeholders to answer a broad range of analysis questions. The goal of this work is to develop energy efficiency, electrification, and demand flexibility enduse load shapes (electricity, gas, propane, or fuel oil) that cover a majority of the high-impact, market-ready (or nearly market-ready) upgrade measures, or upgrades. “Measures” refers to energy efficiency variables that can be applied to buildings during modeling. An end-use savings shape is the difference in energy consumption between a baseline building and a building with an energy efficiency, electrification, or demand flexibility upgrade applied. It results in a time-series profile that is broken down by end use and fuel (electricity or on-site gas, propane, or fuel oil use) at each time step.

32 ENERGY CONSERVATION, CONSUMPTION, AND UTILIZATI↗
DOE OSTI2020

The impact of behavioral and geographic heterogeneity on residential-sector carbon abatement costs

Analyses of monetary and emissions savings from residential efficiency upgrades usually neglect behavioral differences between consumers. Variations in behavior are frequently large: 13% of the U.S. population sets thermostats for cooling at 20 °C (68 °F) or lower and 15% at 25.5 °C (78 °F) or higher. Efficiency analyses should account for behavioral heterogeneity as well as variations in climate and housing characteristics. We model energy and economic savings of efficiency upgrades for U.S. single-family detached houses, accounting for differences in thermostat settings, climate zone, fuel prices, and home characteristics. We consider five efficiency interventions: wall insulation, attic insulation, air sealing, high-efficiency furnaces, and high-efficiency air conditioners. Energy and economic savings vary widely by consumer; the average net present value for wall insulation is $3,020 United States Dollar (USD), but considering heterogeneity, it has a 10th percentile value of -$231 and 90th percentile value of $5,000. Neglecting heterogeneity, technology upgrades can be prioritized from lower to higher carbon abatement costs: air conditioners, wall insulation, furnace, air sealing, and attic insulation. Accounting for heterogeneity reorders this prioritization, and consumer-specific conditions affect mitigation costs such that technologies are mixed in with one another and are no longer arranged one after another. These results indicate that interventions to improve efficiency should consider differences between consumers.

32 ENERGY CONSERVATION, CONSUMPTION, AND UTILIZATI↗
DOE OSTI2024

Heat pumps for all? Distributions of the costs and benefits of residential air-source heat pumps in the United States

Electrification of fossil-fuel combustion in buildings is a key component of achieving global greenhouse gas emissions targets. We use physics simulations of 550,000 statistically representative households to analyze distributions of the costs and benefits of three air-to-air heat pump performance levels, with and without insulation upgrades, across the diversity of the US housing stock. We find positive greenhouse gas reductions in every US state for all performance levels across five 2022-2038 electric grid scenarios, with full adoption reducing national emissions by 5%-9%. We find that air-to-air heat pumps could be cost effective without subsidies in 59% of households (65 million). However, efficiency is key: whereas minimum-efficiency equipment could increase energy bills in 39% of households, this fraction is only 19% when also upgrading insulation or 5% when using higher-efficiency equipment, though both strategies have higher upfront costs. Such affordability challenges could be addressed through supportive incentives, policy, and innovation.

32 ENERGY CONSERVATION, CONSUMPTION, AND UTILIZATI↗
DOE OSTI2025

Accelerating room air conditioner efficiency in India: Grid, economic, and policy implications through 2035

India is poised for a rapid surge in space cooling demand, driven by rising incomes, urbanization, and intensifying heat. Between 2025 and 2035, the country is expected to add 130–150 million new room air conditioners (ACs). If Minimum Energy Performance Standards (MEPS) continue to improve at the historical rate of 2–3 % annually, room ACs alone could contribute over 180 GW to peak electricity demand by 2035-nearly 30 % of the projected national total. This study evaluates the impact of an accelerated MEPS trajectory, proposing to raise the 1-star threshold to ISEER 5.0 by 2027, ISEER 6.3 by 2030, and ISEER 7.4 by 2033. Drawing on engineering cost analysis, stock turnover modeling, and retail pricing data, we find that this pathway could reduce peak demand by over 60 GW, save 118 TWh of electricity annually, avoid 49 MtCO₂ of electricity-related emissions per year, avert ₹7.5 trillion (∼US$85 billion) in power system investments, and yield ₹0.7–2.3 trillion (∼US$8–26 billion) in net consumer savings by 2035. Contrary to affordability concerns, empirical trends show that higher efficiency does not increase AC prices. These results highlight the value of ambitious MEPS as a cost-effective strategy for improving grid reliability, reducing emissions, and advancing consumer welfare in emerging economies.

Abhyankar, Nikit↗
DOE OSTI2025

Impact of electric vehicle battery recycling on reducing raw material demand and battery life-cycle carbon emissions in China

The rapid growth of electric vehicles (EVs) in China challenges raw material demand. This study evaluates the impact of recycling and reusing EV batteries on reducing material demand and carbon emissions. Integrating a national-level vehicle stock turnover model with life-cycle carbon emission assessment, we found that replacing nickel-cobalt-manganese batteries with lithium iron phosphate batteries with battery recycling can reduce lithium, cobalt, and nickel demand between 2021 and 2060 by up to 7.8 million tons (Mt) (67%), 12.4 Mt (96%), and 37.2 Mt (93%), respectively, significantly decreasing reliance on import. Moreover, battery recycling coupled with reuse can reduce carbon emissions by up to 6,532-6,864 Mt (36.0-37.9%), depending on four recycling methods employed. However, this reuse strategy delays battery recycling and risks lithium supply shortage, necessitating trade-offs between carbon reduction and material supply. Future technologies, such as lithium-sulfur and all-solid-state batteries, despite their energy efficiency, might exacerbate lithium shortage, underscoring the crucial need for increased lithium supply.

25 ENERGY STORAGE↗
DOE OSTI2022

The NASA Carbon Monitoring System Phase 2 synthesis: scope, findings, gaps and recommended next steps

Abstract Underlying policy efforts to address global climate change is the scientific need to develop the methods to accurately measure and model carbon stocks and fluxes across the wide range of spatial and temporal scales in the Earth system. Initiated in 2010, the NASA Carbon Monitoring System is one of the most ambitious relevant science initiatives to date, exploiting the satellite remote sensing resources, computational capabilities, scientific knowledge, airborne science capabilities, and end-to-end system expertise that are major strengths of the NASA Earth Science program. Here we provide a synthesis of ‘Phase 2’ activities (2011–2019), encompassing 79 projects, 482 publications, and 136 data products. Our synthesis addresses four key questions: What has been attempted? What major results have been obtained? What major gaps and uncertainties remain? and What are the recommended next steps? Through this review, we take stock of what has been accomplished and identify future priorities toward meeting the nation’s needs for carbon monitoring reporting and verification.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2023

Coordinating the electric vehicle transition and electricity grid decarbonization in the U.S. is not essential to achieving substantial long-term carbon dioxide emissions reductions

Abstract How quickly the US can decarbonize light-duty vehicle (LDV) transportation depends on the rates of change of electric vehicle (EV) sales, stock turnover, and grid decarbonization. We build a stock turnover model to assess how sensitive achieving 2050 LDV decarbonization targets is to these rates. We estimate carbon dioxide (CO 2 ) reductions of 70%–85% by 2050, including emissions from vehicles and upstream electricity generation, provided that new vehicle sales transition to 100% EVs and substantial grid decarbonization are accomplished by 2050. This result is robust to continuation of long-term trends of increasing vehicle longevity, and to whether the timing of EV sales growth and grid decarbonization are coordinated. If the two key goals are met, the annual contribution of EV electricity use to CO 2 emissions will be small over the entire period.

Leard, Benjamin↗
DOE OSTI2024

Body size and early marine conditions drive changes in Chinook salmon productivity across northern latitude ecosystems

Disentangling the influences of climate change from other stressors affecting the population dynamics of aquatic species is particularly pressing for northern latitude ecosystems, where climate‐driven warming is occurring faster than the global average. Chinook salmon (Oncorhynchus tshawytscha) in the Yukon‐Kuskokwim (YK) region occupy the northern extent of their species' range and are experiencing prolonged declines in abundance resulting in fisheries closures and impacts to the well‐being of Indigenous people and local communities. These declines have been associated with physical (e.g., temperature, streamflow) and biological (e.g., body size, competition) conditions, but uncertainty remains about the relative influence of these drivers on productivity across populations and how salmon–environment relationships vary across watersheds. To fill these knowledge gaps, we estimated the effects of marine and freshwater environmental indicators, body size, and indices of competition, on the productivity (adult returns‐per‐spawner) of 26 Chinook salmon populations in the YK region using a Bayesian hierarchical stock‐recruitment model. Across most populations, productivity declined with smaller spawner body size and sea surface temperatures that were colder in the winter and warmer in the summer during the first year at sea. Decreased productivity was also associated with above average fall maximum daily streamflow, increased sea ice cover prior to juvenile outmigration, and abundance of marine competitors, but the strength of these effects varied among populations. Maximum daily stream temperature during spawning migration had a nonlinear relationship with productivity, with reduced productivity in years when temperatures exceeded thresholds in main stem rivers. These results demonstrate for the first time that well‐documented declines in body size of YK Chinook salmon were associated with declining population productivity, while taking climate into account.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2025

ComStock Measure Documentation: Photovoltaics With 40% Rooftop Coverage

This study investigates the impact of adding 40% rooftop coverage of photovoltaics to the U.S. commercial building stock. Panels are modeled as higher performance with 21% rated efficiency, 96% inverter efficiency, 1.10 DC/AC ratio,14% system losses, and azimuth/tilt angles that vary by location. Total panel area is modeled at 40% of the roof area for each model. Total rated PV power for a building is based on the calculated total panel area and the assumed efficiency of 21%. This measure is applied to all buildings modeled in ComStock.

32 ENERGY CONSERVATION, CONSUMPTION, AND UTILIZATI↗
DOE OSTI2020

Residential Natural Gas Demand Response Potential during Extreme Cold Events in Electricity-Gas Coupled Energy Systems

In regions where natural gas is used for both power generation and heating buildings, extreme cold weather events can place the electrical system under enormous stress and challenge the ability to meet residential heating and electric demands. Residential demand response has long been used in the power sector to curtail summer electric load, but these types of programs in general have not seen adoption in the natural gas sector during winter months. Natural gas demand response (NG-DR) has garnered interest given recent extreme cold weather events in the United States; however, the magnitude of savings and potential impacts—to occupants and energy markets—are not well understood. We present a case-study analysis of the technical potential for residential natural gas demand response in the northeast United States that utilizes diverse whole-building energy simulations and high-performance computing. Our results show that NG-DR applied to residential heating systems during extreme cold-weather conditions could reduce natural gas demand by 1–29% based on conservative and aggressive strategies, respectively. This indicates a potential to improve the resilience of gas and electric systems during stressful events, which we examine by estimating the impact on energy costs and electricity generation from natural gas. We also explore relationships between hourly indoor temperatures, demand response, and building envelope efficiency.

03 NATURAL GAS↗
DOE OSTI2024

End-Use Savings Shapes Measure Documentation: Demand Control Ventilation

This documentation focuses on a single end-use savings shape measure - Demand Control Ventilation (DCV). DCV can save energy by reducing the rate at which outdoor air (OA) is delivered during periods of less-than-design occupancy. This measure will enable DCV for air loops using applicable HVAC system types (all except dedicated outdoor air systems [DOAS], packaged systems, or that have an energy recovery ventilator [ERV]) and serving applicable space types (all except kitchens, dining areas, patient spaces, mechanical rooms, stairwells and corridors, or high exhaust space types) using model occupancy schedules to control the DCV. The measure is applicable to 72.7% of the stock floor area. As office buildings outside of California in ComStock are modeled using a single, whole-building space type, DCV is not applied to these building types. The DCV measure demonstrates 2.6% total site energy savings (119 trillion British thermal units [TBtu]) for the U.S. commercial building stock modeled in ComStock.

32 ENERGY CONSERVATION, CONSUMPTION, AND UTILIZATI↗
DOE OSTI2026

ResStock Measure Documentation: Residential Variable-Speed Geothermal Heat Pump (4.4 COP, 30.9 EER)

The goal of this work is to develop energy efficiency, demand flexibility, and other retrofit end-use load shapes (electricity, gas, propane, or fuel oil) that cover a majority of the high-impact, market-ready (or nearly market-ready) measures. "Measures" refers to retrofits that can be applied to buildings during modeling. An "end-use savings shape" is the difference in energy consumption between a baseline building and a building with an energy efficiency, demand flexibility, or other retrofit measure applied. It results in a time-series profile that is broken down by end use and fuel (electricity or on-site gas, propane, or fuel oil use) at each time step. ResStock (TM) is a highly granular, physics-based, bottom-up model that uses multiple data sources, statistical sampling methods, and advanced building energy simulations to estimate the annual subhourly energy consumption of the residential building stock across the United States. The baseline model intends to represent the U.S. residential building stock as it existed in 2018. Technical documentation for the inputs and assumptions in the baseline building stock model is available in Reyna et al. (2025). Calibration and validation of the baseline model results are available in the final technical report of the End-Use Load Profiles project (Wilson et al. 2022). This documentation focuses on a single end-use savings shape measure: Residential Variable-Speed Geothermal Heat Pump (GHP). This document provides the relevant new modeling information for variable-speed systems not previously covered in either the single-stage or two-stage documents. Variable-speed GHPs represent the most efficient option available for this technology: They provide the most savings, with up to 46% for the applicable portion of the housing stock, compared to 31% for less efficient single-stage GHPs. Additional results shown here detail how the savings change for sections of the housing stock with different base heating fuels and in different climate zones, and they show the savings potential by state for both heating and cooling. Utility bills and electric panel impacts are also shown and discussed.

15 GEOTHERMAL ENERGY↗
DOE OSTI2026

ResStock Measure Documentation: Residential Single-Stage Geothermal Heat Pump (3.8 COP, 18.6 EER)

The goal of this work is to develop energy efficiency, demand flexibility, and other retrofit end-use load shapes (electricity, gas, propane, or fuel oil) that cover a majority of the high-impact, market-ready (or nearly market-ready) measures. "Measures" refers to retrofits that can be applied to buildings during modeling. An "end-use savings shape" is the difference in energy consumption between a baseline building and a building with an energy efficiency, demand flexibility, or other retrofit measure applied. It results in a time-series profile that is broken down by end use and fuel (electricity or on-site gas, propane, or fuel oil use) at each time step. ResStock is a highly granular, physics-based, bottom-up model that uses multiple data sources, statistical sampling methods, and advanced building energy simulations to estimate the annual subhourly energy consumption of the residential building stock across the United States. The baseline model intends to represent the U.S. residential building stock as it existed in 2018. Technical documentation for the inputs and assumptions in the baseline building stock model is available in Reyna et al. (2025). Calibration and validation of the baseline model results are available in the final technical report of the End-Use Load Profiles project (Wilson et al. 2022). This documentation focuses on a single end-use savings shape measure: Residential Single-Stage Geothermal Heat Pump (GHP).?Single-stage GHPs are able to reduce energy consumption by 31% for the entire stock. Additional results provided below detail how savings changes for sections of the housing stock with different base heating fuel and in different climate zones, as well as the savings potential by state for both heating and cooling. Utility bills and electric panel impacts are also shown and discussed.

15 GEOTHERMAL ENERGY↗
DOE OSTI2026

ResStock Measure Documentation: Residential Two-Stage Geothermal Heat Pump (4.0 COP, 20.5 EER) With Envelope Improvements and Advanced Air Sealing

The goal of this work is to develop energy efficiency, demand flexibility, and other retrofit end-use load shapes (electricity, gas, propane, or fuel oil) that cover a majority of the high-impact, market-ready (or nearly market-ready) measures. "Measures" refers to retrofits that can be applied to buildings during modeling. An "end-use savings shape" is the difference in energy consumption between a baseline building and a building with an energy efficiency, demand flexibility, or other retrofit measure applied. It results in a time-series profile that is broken down by end use and fuel (electricity or on-site gas, propane, or fuel oil use) at each time step. ResStock is a highly granular, physics-based, bottom-up model that uses multiple data sources, statistical sampling methods, and advanced building energy simulations to estimate the annual subhourly energy consumption of the residential building stock across the United States. The baseline model intends to represent the U.S. residential building stock as it existed in 2018. Technical documentation for the inputs and assumptions in the baseline building stock model is available in Reyna et al. (2025). Calibration and validation of the baseline model results are available in the final technical report of the End-Use Load Profiles project (Wilson, et al. 2022). This document focuses on a single end-use savings shape measure: Residential Two-Stage Geothermal Heat Pump (GHP) (4.0 COP, 20.5 EER) With Envelope Improvements. This measure combines a two-stage GHP with envelope improvements as a single package. As this package is a combination of two other measures, this document focused on documenting the results associated with this combination of technologies, with individual measure documents for two-stage GHPs and envelope improvements providing the information on the details of these measures. When the two technologies are combined, envelope improvements can modestly reduce energy consumption by a further 10%-15%, but also reduce the required size of the ground heat exchanger and heat pump by approximately 33% on average across all sites. The cost of installing envelope improvements in these homes is likely to be more than paid for by the reduction in equipment and drilling costs in these buildings for the majority of the stock.

15 GEOTHERMAL ENERGY↗