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Search indexed NASA NTRS and DOE OSTI research on propulsion, heat transfer, battery materials and energy systems. Follow report and document links to the original sources.

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At least 73 records · Page 4
All sourcesNASA NTRSDOE OSTI
DOE OSTI2024

Improving Additive Manufactured Component Performance through Multi-Scale Microstructure Simulation and Process Optimization

The purpose of this project was to utilize computational tools to understand the relationships between processing, microstructure, and properties for additively manufactured (AM) aluminum alloys for automotive applications, and to provide an engineering solution for helping to optimize process conditions. The project leverages ORNL developments in computational modeling, including AM process modeling, phase-field based microstructure evolution predictions, and data analytics techniques for mapping process conditions to material outcomes. The project utilized an Al-Cu-Mn-Zr alloy as a model material for studying formation of defects and microstructural features in response to variations in process conditions. Based on both pre-existing experimental data and simulation results, statistical process maps were constructed to identify regions of process space with minimal defect formation and advantageous microstructures and properties. The software tools used for this purpose were successful disseminated to GM, who were able to successful compile the relevant HPC codes within their own computing ecosystem and perform initial calculations to reproduce ORNL results.

36 MATERIALS SCIENCE↗
DOE OSTI2024

Analysis on Evaluations of Monterey Bay Aquarium Research Institute’s Wave Energy Converter’s Field Data Using WEC-Sim and Gazebo: A Simulation Tool Comparison

Although many studies have validated wave energy converter (WEC) numerical models against scaled prototype experimental data, there remains a notable lack of validation using data from full-scale deployed WECs. This paper compares two numerical models of Monterey Bay Aquarium Research Institute’s Wave Energy Converter (MBARI-WEC), a two-body point absorber with an electro-hydraulic power take-off system (PTO). The models are implemented in WEC-Sim/Simscape and Gazebo Simulator. A statistical analysis of the models was performed, and field results were obtained to compare the models’ accuracy in predicting the RMS piston velocity, RMS motor speed, and mean electric power compared to field data for 56 observations across varying sea states. The Gazebo model demonstrated a closer agreement across all three parameters for a majority of the observations. When compared to the field data, the Gazebo and WEC-Sim models exhibited average mean electric power overestimations of 13% and 22%, respectively.

16 TIDAL AND WAVE POWER↗
DOE OSTI2025

Historical and Future Windstorms in the Northeastern United States

Large-scale windstorms represent an important atmospheric hazard in the Northeastern US (NE) and are associated with substantial socioeconomic losses. Regional simulations performed with the Weather Research and Forecasting (WRF) model using lateral boundary conditions from three Earth System Models (ESMs: Geophysical Fluid Dynamics Laboratory (GFDL), Hadley Centre Global Environment Model (HadGEM) and Max Planck Institute (MPI)) are used to quantify possible future changes in windstorm characteristics and/or changes in the parent cyclone types responsible for windstorms. WRF nested within MPI ESM best represents important aspects of historical windstorms and the cyclone types responsible for generating windstorms compared with a reference simulation performed with the ERA-Interim reanalysis for the historical climate. The spatial scale and frequency of the largest windstorms in each simulation defined using the greatest extent of exceedance of local 99.9th percentile wind speeds (U > U999) plus 50-year return period wind speeds (U50,RP) do not exhibit secular trends. Projections of extreme wind speeds and windstorm intensity/frequency/geolocation and dominant parent cyclone type associated with windstorms vary markedly across the simulations. Only the MPI nested simulations indicate statistically significant differences in windstorm spatial scale, frequency and intensity over the NE in the future and historical periods. This model chain, which also exhibits the highest fidelity in the historical climate, yields evidence of future increases in 99.9th percentile 10 m height wind speeds, the frequency of simultaneous U > U999 over a substantial fraction (5–25%) of the NE and the frequency of maximum wind speeds above 22.5 ms−1. These geophysical changes, coupled with a projected doubling of population, leads to a projected tripling of a socioeconomic loss index, and hence risk to human systems, from future windstorms.

Pryor, Sara C. (ORCID:0000000348473440)↗
DOE OSTI2025

NE-COST plug-in: Expanding ACCERT's Capabilities for Life-Cycle Cost Modeling

The Algorithm for the Capital Cost Estimation of Reactor Technologies (ACCERT) is a structured methodology and software tool designed to simplify and standardize cost estimation for nuclear reactor technologies [1]. By utilizing a relational database structure and modular cost estimation algorithms, ACCERT delivers a robust, flexible, and scalable framework for evaluating costs across various reactor types and configurations [2]. The recent integration of the NE-COST plugin further expands ACCERT’s scope by introducing detailed life-cycle cost modeling and probabilistic analysis of uncertainties. This addition enables users to evaluate costs across front-end processes such as uranium enrichment and fabrication, as well as back-end activities including waste disposal and geologic storage. Through Monte Carlo statistical cost simulations, the plugin provides probabilistic insights into cost ranges, offering critical decision-making support for stakeholders including reactor developers, policymakers, and researchers.

Zhou, Jia↗
DOE OSTI2026

Dark Energy Survey Year 3 results: optimized $w$CDM simulation-based inference with weak lensing map-level hybrid statistics

We present cosmological constraints from the Dark Energy Survey Year 3 (DES Y3) weak lensing data using hierarchical hybrid statistics within a Bayesian simulation-based inference framework that is based on the Gower Street simulations. To maximize the precision of the inference, we have developed a new, information-theory based, data compression of the weak lensing maps to just seven highly informative summary statistics. The hybrid scheme exploits the high information content of the power spectrum, compressing both the power spectrum and neural-based summaries that are designed to extract further information. Our simulation-based approach enables principled forward modelling of all major sources of systematic uncertainty and survey properties into realistic mock observations, including the survey mask, photometric redshift uncertainties, intrinsic galaxy alignments, multiplicative shear calibration bias, source galaxy clustering, non-Gaussian shape noise, and non-linear structure formation. The summary statistics are then used in a Bayesian simulation-based inference pipeline. The inference is validated through coverage tests and checks for robustness against baryonic feedback. Assuming a $w$CDM cosmology, our analysis yields $S_8 = 0.808 \pm 0.017$, $Ω_{\rm m} = 0.325 \pm 0.024$, and $w < -0.766$ (marginalized posterior 68 per cent credible intervals). This rigorous combination of information theory, physics- and neural network-based extreme data compression, and principled Bayesian analysis improves the figure of merit for $(Ω_{\rm m}, S_8, w)$ by 60 per cent over the previous state-of-the-art, and by almost a factor of 3 over two-point analyses of the same data. They are the most precise joint constraints on $(Ω_{\rm m}, S_8, w)$ from weak gravitational lensing data alone of any survey to date. We intend to apply this analysis to the more recent DES Y6 data.

Williamson, J. [University Coll. London]↗
DOE OSTI2025

Ponderosa pine hydraulic stress predicts more extreme wildfire behavior under future conditions in Bandelier National Monument, New Mexico

Background Live fuel moisture contributes to wildfire spread and reflects plant stress and physiological traits. The anticipated change in live fuel moisture under future conditions is likely non-linear, owing to physiological plant thresholds in water hydraulics. We constructed a mechanistic model of live fuel moisture’s response to water stress to understand the impact of future climate on live fuel moisture. We first gathered data on plant physiology and live fuel moisture for Pinus ponderosa at Bandelier National Monument, NM, USA, and modeled their relationship. We then parameterized a mechanistic plant hydrodynamics model (FATES-HYDRO) to simulate changes in plant stress and a statistical model to simulate the resulting impact on live fuel moisture. We then simulated FATES-HYDRO under future climate anomalies (SSP2-4.5 and SSP5-8.5: 2080–2100) to understand the change in plant stress and estimate its impact on live fuel moisture. Results We found that the number of days below crucial thresholds of live fuel moisture (100% and 79%) increased from contemporary levels (< 100%: 72 days, < 79%: 1.4 days) under SSP2-4.5 (< 100%: 185 days, < 79%: 10.2 day) and increased exponentially under SSP5-8.5 (< 100%: 215 days, < 79%: 65 days). We found that gross primary productivity decreased under both future climate scenarios (contemporary: 336 g C m −2 , SSP2-4.5: 203 g C m −2 , SSP5-8.5: 243 g C m −2 ); however, spring productivity increased under SSP5-8.5, potentially altering fuel loading. We additionally see a potentially lethal loss of conductivity in hydraulic P. ponderosa under SSP5-8.5. Conclusions The overall increase in plant water stress (as represented by loss of hydraulic conductivity and leaf water potential) and lower live fuel moisture appear to be driven by reduced precipitation during late summer monsoons typical of the region, extending the fire season later in the year. We predict increasing variability in the P. ponderosa wildfire regime under both climate projections driven by changing productivity, rising mortality, and an overall decrease in live fuel moisture.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2022

Kinetic theory of particle-in-cell simulation plasma and the ensemble averaging technique

Abstract We derive the kinetic theory of fluctuations in physically and numerically stable particle-in-cell (PIC) simulations of electrostatic plasmas. The starting point is the single-time correlation at the start of the simulation between the statistical fluctuations of the weighted densities of macroparticle centers in the plasma particle phase-space. The fluctuations are associated with different initial conditions, typically due to the random initial conditions (in velocity space) of the macroparticles/simulation plasma, assigned according to their initial distribution of probability. The single-time correlations at all time steps and in each spatial grid cell are then determined from the Laplace–Fourier transforms of the discretized Klimontovich-like equation for the macroparticles and Maxwell’s equations for the fields, as computed by modern PIC codes. We recover the expressions for the electrostatic field and the plasma particle density fluctuation autocorrelation spectra as well as the kinetic equations describing the average evolution of PIC-simulated plasma particles, first derived by Langdon (1970b Proc. 4th Conf. Numerical Simulation of Plasmas ) using a test macroparticle approach perturbing a discretized Vlasovian plasma and then averaging the obtained physical quantity over the initial macroparticle velocity distribution. We generalize and extend these results to the modern algorithms in PIC codes using arbitrary macroparticle weights. Analytical estimates of statistical fluctuation amplitudes are derived as a function of the plasma simulation parameters, using the central limit theorem in the limit of a large number of macroparticles per cell. The theory is then used to analyze the ensemble averaging technique of PIC simulations where statistical averages are performed over ensembles of PIC simulations, modeling the same plasma physics problem but using different statistical realizations of the initial distribution functions of the macroparticles. This method is illustrated by linear Landau damping uncovering (from noise, which is usually considered numerical) the physical fluctuations driven by a single small amplitude electrostatic wave perturbing a PIC simulation plasma in equilibrium.

fluctuations correlations↗
DOE OSTI2022

The effects of microstructure on deformation twinning in Mg WE43

The interplay between microstructure and deformation twinning in a WE43-T6 Mg alloy under uniaxial compression was investigated using a combination of scanning electron microscopy with digital image correlation (SEM-DIC) and crystal plasticity finite element (CPFE) simulation. To improve understanding of the statistical characteristics of deformation twin formation, microstructural effects were characterized in over 1000 grains through metrics including the nominal Schmid Factor, grain size, geometric compatibility factor (m'), residual Burgers vector, and the strain accommodated by neighboring grains. There was a strong correlation between the nominal Schmid Factor and both twin activation and variant selection, but this was not fully deterministic. Deformation twinning also exhibited a strong dependence on existing slip and twinning in the neighboring grain and on the m' value. Within the range of grain sizes present in this condition, grain size was determined to have minimal effect on deformation twinning. Finally, statistical analysis of CPFE simulations was used to further investigate microstructural effects on twinning, and qualitatively captured the effect of the nominal Schmid Factor.

36 MATERIALS SCIENCE↗
DOE OSTI2022

Using kernel-based statistical distance to study the dynamics of charged particle beams in particle-based simulation codes

Measures of discrepancy between probability distributions (statistical distance) are widely used in the fields of artificial intelligence and machine learning. We describe how certain measures of statistical distance can be implemented as numerical diagnostics for simulations involving charged-particle beams. Related measures of statistical dependence are also described. The resulting diagnostics provide sensitive measures of dynamical processes important for beams in nonlinear or high-intensity systems, which are otherwise difficult to characterize. Here, the focus is on kernel-based methods such as maximum mean discrepancy, which have a well-developed mathematical foundation and reasonable computational complexity. Several benchmark problems and examples involving intense beams are discussed. While the focus is on charged-particle beams, these methods may also be applied to other many-body systems such as plasmas or gravitational systems.

47 OTHER INSTRUMENTATION↗
DOE OSTI2024

Molecular Dynamics Simulation of Complex Reactivity with the Rapid Approach for Proton Transport and Other Reactions (RAPTOR) Software Package

Simulating chemically reactive phenomena such as proton transport on nanosecond to microsecond and beyond time scales is a challenging task. Ab initio methods are unable to currently access these time scales routinely, and traditional molecular dynamics methods feature fixed bonding arrangements that cannot account for changes in the system’s bonding topology. The Multiscale Reactive Molecular Dynamics (MS-RMD) method, as implemented in the Rapid Approach for Proton Transport and Other Reactions (RAPTOR) software package for the LAMMPS molecular dynamics code, offers a method to routinely sample longer time scale reactive simulation data with statistical precision. RAPTOR may also be interfaced with enhanced sampling methods to drive simulations toward the analysis of reactive rare events, and a number of collective variables (CVs) have been developed to facilitate this. Key advances to this methodology, including GPU acceleration efforts and novel CVs to model water wire formation are reviewed, along with recent applications of the method which demonstrate its versatility and robustness.

37 INORGANIC, ORGANIC, PHYSICAL, AND ANALYTICAL CH↗
DOE OSTI2025

Cosmology with second- and third-order shear statistics for the Dark Energy Survey: Methods and simulated analysis

We present a new pipeline designed for the robust inference of cosmological parameters using both second- and third-order shear statistics. We build a theoretical model for rapid evaluation of three-point correlations using our fastnc code and integrate it into the cosmosis framework. We measure the two-point functions 𝜉 ± and the full configuration-dependent three-point shear correlation functions across all auto- and cross-redshift bins. We compress the three-point functions into the mass aperture statistic ⟨ℳ$^{3}_{ap}$⟩ for a set of 796 simulated shear maps designed to model the Dark Energy Survey Year 3 data. We estimate from it the full covariance matrix and model the effects of intrinsic alignments, shear calibration biases and photometric redshift uncertainties. We apply scale cuts to minimize the contamination from the baryonic signal as modeled through hydrodynamical simulations. We find a significant improvement of 83% on the figure of merit in the Ω m − 𝑆 8 plane when we add the ⟨ℳ$^{3}_{ap}$⟩ data to 𝜉 ± . Here, we present our findings for all relevant cosmological and systematic uncertainty parameters and discuss the complementarity of third-order and second-order statistics.

79 ASTRONOMY AND ASTROPHYSICS↗
DOE OSTI2022

The DESI N -body Simulation Project – II. Suppressing sample variance with fast simulations

ABSTRACT Dark Energy Spectroscopic Instrument (DESI) will construct a large and precise three-dimensional map of our Universe. The survey effective volume reaches $\sim 20\, h^{-3}\, \mathrm{Gpc}^{3}$. It is a great challenge to prepare high-resolution simulations with a much larger volume for validating the DESI analysis pipelines. AbacusSummit is a suite of high-resolution dark-matter-only simulations designed for this purpose, with $200\, h^{-3}\, \mathrm{Gpc}^{3}$ (10 times DESI volume) for the base cosmology. However, further efforts need to be done to provide a more precise analysis of the data and to cover also other cosmologies. Recently, the CARPool method was proposed to use paired accurate and approximate simulations to achieve high statistical precision with a limited number of high-resolution simulations. Relying on this technique, we propose to use fast quasi-N-body solvers combined with accurate simulations to produce accurate summary statistics. This enables us to obtain 100 times smaller variance than the expected DESI statistical variance at the scales we are interested in, e.g. $k \lt 0.3\, h\, \mathrm{Mpc}^{-1}$ for the halo power spectrum. In addition, it can significantly suppress the sample variance of the halo bispectrum. We further generalize the method for other cosmologies with only one realization in AbacusSummit suite to extend the effective volume ∼20 times. In summary, our proposed strategy of combining high-fidelity simulations with fast approximate gravity solvers and a series of variance suppression techniques sets the path for a robust cosmological analysis of galaxy survey data.

cosmology: theory↗
DOE OSTI2023

Understanding the fusion yield dependencies in OMEGA DT-layered implosion experiments using a physics-based statistical mapping model

Improving the performance of inertial confinement fusion implosions requires physics models that can accurately predict the response to changes in the experimental inputs. Good predictive capability has been demonstrated for the fusion yield using a statistical mapping of simulated outcomes to experimental data [Gopalaswamy et al., Nature 565(771), 581–586 (2019)]. In this paper, a physics-based statistical mapping approach is used to extract and quantify all the major sources of degradation of fusion yield for direct-drive implosions on the OMEGA laser. Here, the yield is found to be dependent on the age of the deuterium tritium fill, the ℓ = 1 asymmetry in the implosion core, the laser beam-to-target size ratio, and parameters related to the hydrodynamic stability. A controlled set of experiments were carried out where only the target fill age was varied while keeping all other parameters constant. The measurements were found to be in excellent agreement with the fill age dependency inferred using the mapping model. In addition, a new implosion design was created, guided by the statistical mapping model by optimizing the trade-offs between increased laser energy coupling at larger target size and the degradations caused by the laser beam-to-target size ratio and hydrodynamic instabilities. When experimentally performed, an increased fusion yield was demonstrated in targets with larger diameters.

70 PLASMA PHYSICS AND FUSION TECHNOLOGY↗
DOE OSTI2022

Investigation of the Self-Assembly Behavior of Statistical Bottlebrush Copolymers via Self-Consistent Field Theory Simulations

Bottlebrush copolymers, a class of high-density side-chain-grafted copolymers with high molecular weights, have recently attracted extensive research attention due to the dramatic reduction of chain entanglement in these copolymers, unique self-assembly behaviors, and distinctive physical properties. In this study, we employ self-consistent field theory simulations to systemically investigate the phase behavior of statistical bottlebrush copolymers A-stat-B, an intriguing subclass of bottlebrush copolymers with random or alternating sequences of A and B side chains. We find that a broader variety of ordered mesophases can be stabilized in the melts of these copolymers relative to the more extensively studied bottlebrush block copolymers. In particular, we observe that these statistical copolymers can stabilize sphere phases over a larger range of species volume fractions than their diblock and tetrablock counterparts but require much higher segregation strength to achieve this. The sphere and hexagonally packed cylinder phases formed by conformationally symmetric statistical bottlebrush copolymers possess interesting discrete core–shell structures with the backbone and lower volume fraction side-chain species forming shells and cores, respectively. Moreover, we uncover a new strategy of stabilizing the Frank–Kasper phase A15 by introducing conformational asymmetry through different side-chain lengths and also observe deflection of order–order phase boundaries and significant mixing between the backbones and short side chains as conformational asymmetry is introduced.

36 MATERIALS SCIENCE↗
DOE OSTI2023

New constraints on cosmological modified gravity theories from anisotropic three-point correlation functions of BOSS DR12 galaxies

Here we report a new test of modified gravity theories using the large-scale structure of the Universe. This paper is the first attempt to (1) apply a joint analysis of the anisotropic components of galaxy two- and three-point correlation functions (2 and 3PCFs) to actual galaxy data and (2) constrain the non-linear effects of degenerate higher-order scalar-tensor (DHOST) theories on cosmological scales. Applying this analysis to the Baryon Oscillation Spectroscopic Survey (BOSS) data release 12, we obtain the lower bounds of –1.655 < ξ t and –0.504 < ξ s at the $95{{\ \rm per\ cent}}$ confidence level on the parameters characterizing the time evolution of the tidal and shift terms of the second-order velocity field. These constraints are consistent with GR predictions of ξ t = 15/1144 and ξs = 0. Moreover, they represent a 35-fold and 20-fold improvement, respectively, over the joint analysis with only the isotropic 3PCF. We ensure the validity of our results by investigating various quantities, including theoretical models of the 3PCF, window function corrections, cumulative S/N, Fisher matrices, and statistical scattering effects of mock simulation data. We also find statistically significant discrepancies between the BOSS data and the Patchy mocks for the 3PCF measurement. Finally, we package all of our 3PCF analysis codes under the name hitomi and make them publicly available so that readers can reproduce all the results of this paper and easily apply them to ongoing future galaxy surveys.

79 ASTRONOMY AND ASTROPHYSICS↗
DOE OSTI2025

Thermodynamic consistency and fluctuations in mesoscopic stochastic simulations of reactive gas mixtures

It is essential that mesoscopic simulations of reactive systems reproduce the correct statistical distributions at thermodynamic equilibrium. By considering a compressible fluctuating hydrodynamics (FHD) simulation method of ideal gas mixtures undergoing reversible reactions described by the chemical Langevin equations, we show that thermodynamic consistency in reaction rates and the use of instantaneous temperatures for the evaluation of reaction rates is required for fluctuations for the overall system to be correct. We then formulate the required properties of a thermodynamically consistent reaction (TCR) model. As noted in the literature, while reactions are often discussed in terms of forward and reverse rates, these rates should not be modeled independently because they must be compatible with thermodynamic equilibrium for the system. Using a simple TCR model where each chemical species has constant heat capacity, we derive the explicit condition that the forward and reverse reaction rate constants must satisfy in order for the system to be thermodynamically consistent. We perform equilibrium and non-equilibrium simulations of ideal gas mixtures undergoing a reversible dimerization reaction to measure the fluctuational behavior of the system numerically. We confirm that FHD simulations with the TCR model give the correct static structure factor of equilibrium fluctuations. For the statistically steady simulation of a gas mixture between two isothermal walls with different temperatures, we show using the TCR model that the temperature variance agrees with the corresponding thermodynamic-equilibrium temperature variance in the interior of the system, whereas noticeable deviations are present in regions near walls, where chemistry is far from equilibrium.

Polimeno, Matteo [University of California, Merced↗
DOE OSTI2023

Statistical Learning for Nonlinear Model Reduction from Local Simulations of Stochastic and Particle- and Agent-Based Systems

Stochastic physical systems across the sciences that have very high-dimensional state spaces, with a large number of fast degrees of freedom that force direct simulators to proceed by integration steps that are orders of magnitude smaller than events of interests (e.g., particle collisions). Examples range from molecular motion to dynamics of large populations of cells. A grand challenge in the simulation and understanding of such systems is the systematic construction of accurate, interpretable, reduced models, enabling faster simulations, revealing fundamental properties of the dynamics, and predicting phenomena of interest that the original simulator could not reached with sufficient accuracy or within a given computational budget. In this projected we developed novel statistical estimation/machine learning techniques for analyzing and building empirical reduced models for important families of high-dimensional stochastic systems, in particular: - we developed techniques for estimating interaction kernels in interacting particle- and agent-based systems, which are ubiquitous in Physics, Biology and many other sciences, given observed trajectories of the system; - we developed techniques for nonlinear model reduction for high-dimensional stochastic systems that have a small number of unknown, nonlinear slow variables, and a large number of fast modes, that are possibly of large magnitude, given observed short trajectories of the system in the form of bursts of trajectories from different initial conditions; - we developed novel techniques for estimating linear dynamical systems on graphs when both the dynamics and the underlying graph are unknown, and we have a sparse set of space-time observations; - we considered the problem of estimating an unknown nonlinear observation function of a standard process (e.g. Brownian motion), so that we can recognized if an observed dynamics is "just" a nonlinear version of a known dynamics; we also developed benchmarks for learning algorithms aimed at learning and classifying diffusion processes.

97 MATHEMATICS AND COMPUTING↗