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At least 73 records · Page 4

Aerocapture Performance Analysis for a Neptune-Triton Exploration Mission

A systems analysis has been conducted for a Neptune-Triton Exploration Mission in which aerocapture is used to capture a spacecraft at Neptune. Aerocapture uses aerodynamic drag instead of propulsion to decelerate from the interplanetary approach trajectory to a captured orbit during a single pass through the atmosphere. After capture, propulsion is used to move the spacecraft from the initial captured orbit to the desired science orbit. A preliminary assessment identified that a spacecraft with a lift to drag ratio of 0.8 was required for aerocapture. Performance analyses of the 0.8 L/D vehicle were performed using a high fidelity flight simulation within a Monte Carlo executive to determine mission success statistics. The simulation was the Program to Optimize Simulated Trajectories (POST) modified to include Neptune specific atmospheric and planet models, spacecraft aerodynamic characteristics, and interplanetary trajectory models. To these were added autonomous guidance and pseudo flight controller models. The Monte Carlo analyses incorporated approach trajectory delivery errors, aerodynamic characteristics uncertainties, and atmospheric density variations. Monte Carlo analyses were performed for a reference set of uncertainties and sets of uncertainties modified to produce increased and reduced atmospheric variability. For the reference uncertainties, the 0.8 L/D flatbottom ellipsled vehicle achieves 100% successful capture and has a 99.87 probability of attaining the science orbit with a 360 m/s V budget for apoapsis and periapsis adjustment. Monte Carlo analyses were also performed for a guidance system that modulates both bank angle and angle of attack with the reference set of uncertainties. An alpha and bank modulation guidance system reduces the 99.87 percentile DELTA V 173 m/s (48%) to 187 m/s for the reference set of uncertainties.

Starr, Brett R.↗

Composite Load Spectra for Select Space Propulsion Structural Components

Generic load models are described with multiple levels of progressive sophistication to simulate the composite (combined) load spectra (CLS) that are induced in space propulsion system components, representative of Space Shuttle Main Engines (SSME), such as transfer ducts, turbine blades and liquid oxygen (LOX) posts. These generic (coupled) models combine the deterministic models for composite load dynamic, acoustic, high-pressure and high rotational speed, etc., load simulation using statistically varying coefficients. These coefficients are then determined using advanced probabilistic simulation methods with and without strategically selected experimental data. The entire simulation process is included in a CLS computer code. Applications of the computer code to various components in conjunction with the PSAM (Probabilistic Structural Analysis Method) to perform probabilistic load evaluation and life prediction evaluations are also described to illustrate the effectiveness of the coupled model approach.

Ho, Hing W.↗

Composite load spectra for select space propulsion structural components

The objective of this program is to develop generic load models with multiple levels of progressive sophistication to simulate the composite (combined) load spectra that are induced in space propulsion system components, representative of Space Shuttle Main Engines (SSME), such as transfer ducts, turbine blades, and liquid oxygen posts and system ducting. The first approach will consist of using state of the art probabilistic methods to describe the individual loading conditions and combinations of these loading conditions to synthesize the composite load spectra simulation. The second approach will consist of developing coupled models for composite load spectra simulation which combine the deterministic models for composite load dynamic, acoustic, high pressure, and high rotational speed, etc., load simulation using statistically varying coefficients. These coefficients will then be determined using advanced probabilistic simulation methods with and without strategically selected experimental data.

Newell, J. F.↗

Composite load spectra for select space propulsion structural components

The objective of this program is to develop generic load models with multiple levels of progressive sophistication to simulate the composite load spectra that are induced in space propulsion system components, representative of Space Shuttle Main Engines (SSME), such as transfer ducts, turbine blades, and liquid oxygen (LOX) posts and system ducting. These models will be developed using two independent approaches. The first approach consists of using state-of-the-art probabilistic methods to describe the individual loading conditions and combinations of these loading conditions to synthesize the composite load spectra simulation. The methodology required to combine the various individual load simulation models (hot-gas dynamic, vibrations, instantaneous position, centrifugal field, etc.) into composite load spectra simulation models will be developed under this program. A computer code incorporating the various individual and composite load spectra models will be developed to construct the specific load model desired. The second approach, which is covered under the options portion of the contract, will consist of developing coupled models for composite load spectra simulation which combine the (deterministic) models for composite load dynamic, acoustic, high-pressure and high rotational speed, etc., load simulation using statistically varying coefficients. These coefficients will then be determined using advanced probabilistic simulation methods with and without strategically selected experimental data. This report covers the efforts of the third year of the contract. The overall program status is that the turbine blade loads have been completed and implemented. The transfer duct loads are defined and are being implemented. The thermal loads for all components are defined and coding is being developed. A dynamic pressure load model is under development. The parallel work on the probabilistic methodology is essentially completed. The overall effort is being integrated in an expert system code specifically developed for this project.

Newell, J. F.↗

Implementation and Testing of Turbulence Models for the F18-HARV Simulation

This report presents three methods of implementing the Dryden power spectral density model for atmospheric turbulence. Included are the equations which define the three methods and computer source code written in Advanced Continuous Simulation Language to implement the equations. Time-history plots and sample statistics of simulated turbulence results from executing the code in a test program are also presented. Power spectral densities were computed for sample sequences of turbulence and are plotted for comparison with the Dryden spectra. The three model implementations were installed in a nonlinear six-degree-of-freedom simulation of the High Alpha Research Vehicle airplane. Aircraft simulation responses to turbulence generated with the three implementations are presented as plots.

Yeager, Jessie C.↗

Knowledge acquisition for expert systems using statistical methods

A common problem in the design of expert systems is the definition of rules from data obtained in system operation or simulation. A statistical method for generating rule bases from numerical data, motivated by an example based on aircraft navigation with multiple sensors is presented. The specific objective is to design an expert system that selects a satisfactory suite of measurements from a dissimilar, redundant set, given an arbitrary navigation geometry and possible sensor failures. The systematic development of a Navigation Sensor Management (NSM) Expert System from Kalman Filter covariance data is described. The development method invokes two statistical techniques: Analysis-of-Variance (ANOVA) and the ID3 algorithm. The ANOVA technique indicates whether variations of problem parameters give statistically different covariance results, and the ID3 algorithm identifies the relationships between the problem parameters using probabilistic knowledge extracted from a simulation example set.

Belkin, Brenda L.↗

An empirical analysis of the distribution of the duration of overshoots in a stationary gaussian stochastic process

This analysis utilizes computer simulation and statistical estimation. Realizations of stationary gaussian stochastic processes with selected autocorrelation functions are computer simulated. Analysis of the simulated data revealed that the mean and the variance of a process were functionally dependent upon the autocorrelation parameter and crossing level. Using predicted values for the mean and standard deviation, by the method of moments, the distribution parameters was estimated. Thus, given the autocorrelation parameter, crossing level, mean, and standard deviation of a process, the probability of exceeding the crossing level for a particular length of time was calculated.

Parrish, R. S.↗

Statistical Emulator for Expensive Classification Simulators

Expensive simulators prevent any kind of meaningful analysis to be performed on the phenomena they model. To get around this problem the concept of using a statistical emulator as a surrogate representation of the simulator was introduced in the 1980's. Presently, simulators have become more and more complex and as a result running a single example on these simulators is very expensive and can take days to weeks or even months. Many new techniques have been introduced, termed criteria, which sequentially select the next best (most informative to the emulator) point that should be run on the simulator. These criteria methods allow for the creation of an emulator with only a small number of simulator runs. We follow and extend this framework to expensive classification simulators.

Ross, Jerret↗

Simulating Visible/Infrared Imager Radiometer Suite Normalized Difference Vegetation Index Data Using Hyperion and MODIS

The success of MODIS (the Moderate Resolution Imaging Spectrometer) in creating unprecedented, timely, high-quality data for vegetation and other studies has created great anticipation for data from VIIRS (the Visible/Infrared Imager Radiometer Suite). VIIRS will be carried onboard the joint NASA/Department of Defense/National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration NPP (NPOESS (National Polar-orbiting Operational Environmental Satellite System) Preparatory Project). Because the VIIRS instruments will have lower spatial resolution than the current MODIS instruments 400 m versus 250 m at nadir for the channels used to generate Normalized Difference Vegetation Index data, scientists need the answer to this question: how will the change in resolution affect vegetation studies? By using simulated VIIRS measurements, this question may be answered before the VIIRS instruments are deployed in space. Using simulated VIIRS products, the U.S. Department of Agriculture and other operational agencies can then modify their decision support systems appropriately in preparation for receipt of actual VIIRS data. VIIRS simulations and validations will be based on the ART (Application Research Toolbox), an integrated set of algorithms and models developed in MATLAB(Registerd TradeMark) that enables users to perform a suite of simulations and statistical trade studies on remote sensing systems. Specifically, the ART provides the capability to generate simulated multispectral image products, at various scales, from high spatial hyperspectral and/or multispectral image products. The ART uses acquired ( real ) or synthetic datasets, along with sensor specifications, to create simulated datasets. For existing multispectral sensor systems, the simulated data products are used for comparison, verification, and validation of the simulated system s actual products. VIIRS simulations will be performed using Hyperion and MODIS datasets. The hyperspectral and hyperspatial properties of Hyperion data will be used to produce simulated MODIS and VIIRS products. Hyperion-derived MODIS data will be compared with near-coincident MODIS collects to validate both spectral and spatial synthesis, which will ascertain the accuracy of converting from MODIS to VIIRS. MODIS-derived VIIRS data is needed for global coverage and for the generation of time series for regional and global investigations. These types of simulations will have errors associated with aliasing for some scene types. This study will help quantify these errors and will identify cases where high-quality, MODIS-derived VIIRS data will be available.

Ross, Kenton W.↗

Accurately Characterizing the Importance of Wave-Particle Interactions in Radiation Belt Dynamics: The Pitfalls of Statistical Wave Representations

Wave-particle interactions play a crucial role in energetic particle dynamics in the Earths radiation belts. However, the relative importance of different wave modes in these dynamics is poorly understood. Typically, this is assessed during geomagnetic storms using statistically averaged empirical wave models as a function of geomagnetic activity in advanced radiation belt simulations. However, statistical averages poorly characterize extreme events such as geomagnetic storms in that storm-time ultralow frequency wave power is typically larger than that derived over a solar cycle and Kp is a poor proxy for storm-time wave power.

Murphy, Kyle R.↗

Continuous assimilation of simulated Geosat altimetric sea level into an eddy-resolving numerical ocean model. I - Sea level differences. II - Referenced sea level differences

The optimal interpolation method of Lorenc (1981) was used to conduct continuous assimilation of altimetric sea level differences from the simulated Geosat exact repeat mission (ERM) into a three-layer quasi-geostrophic eddy-resolving numerical ocean box model that simulates the statistics of mesoscale eddy activity in the western North Pacific. Assimilation was conducted continuously as the Geosat tracks appeared in simulated real time/space, with each track repeating every 17 days, but occurring at different times and locations within the 17-day period, as would have occurred in a realistic nowcast situation. This interpolation method was also used to conduct the assimilation of referenced altimetric sea level differences into the same model, performing the referencing of altimetric sea sevel differences by using the simulated sea level. The results of this dynamical interpolation procedure are compared with those of a statistical (i.e., optimum) interpolation procedure.

White, Warren B.↗

Similar Estimates of Temperature Impacts on Global Wheat Yield by Three Independent Methods

The potential impact of global temperature change on global crop yield has recently been assessed with different methods. Here we show that grid-based and point-based simulations and statistical regressions (from historic records), without deliberate adaptation or CO2 fertilization effects, produce similar estimates of temperature impact on wheat yields at global and national scales. With a 1 C global temperature increase, global wheat yield is projected to decline between 4.1% and 6.4%. Projected relative temperature impacts from different methods were similar for major wheat-producing countries China, India, USA and France, but less so for Russia. Point-based and grid-based simulations, and to some extent the statistical regressions, were consistent in projecting that warmer regions are likely to suffer more yield loss with increasing temperature than cooler regions. By forming a multi-method ensemble, it was possible to quantify 'method uncertainty' in addition to model uncertainty. This significantly improves confidence in estimates of climate impacts on global food security.

Climate impacts↗

Aerocapture Performance Analysis of A Venus Exploration Mission

A performance analysis of a Discovery Class Venus Exploration Mission in which aerocapture is used to capture a spacecraft into a 300km polar orbit for a two year science mission has been conducted to quantify its performance. A preliminary performance assessment determined that a high heritage 70 sphere-cone rigid aeroshell with a 0.25 lift to drag ratio has adequate control authority to provide an entry flight path angle corridor large enough for the mission s aerocapture maneuver. A 114 kilograms per square meter ballistic coefficient reference vehicle was developed from the science requirements and the preliminary assessment s heating indicators and deceleration loads. Performance analyses were conducted for the reference vehicle and for sensitivity studies on vehicle ballistic coefficient and maximum bank rate. The performance analyses used a high fidelity flight simulation within a Monte Carlo executive to define the aerocapture heating environment and deceleration loads and to determine mission success statistics. The simulation utilized the Program to Optimize Simulated Trajectories (POST) that was modified to include Venus specific atmospheric and planet models, aerodynamic characteristics, and interplanetary trajectory models. In addition to Venus specific models, an autonomous guidance system, HYPAS, and a pseudo flight controller were incorporated in the simulation. The Monte Carlo analyses incorporated a reference set of approach trajectory delivery errors, aerodynamic uncertainties, and atmospheric density variations. The reference performance analysis determined the reference vehicle achieves 100% successful capture and has a 99.87% probability of attaining the science orbit with a 90 meters per second delta V budget for post aerocapture orbital adjustments. A ballistic coefficient trade study conducted with reference uncertainties determined that the 0.25 L/D vehicle can achieve 100% successful capture with a ballistic coefficient of 228 kilograms per square meter and that the increased ballistic coefficient increases post aerocapture V budget to 134 meters per second for a 99.87% probability of attaining the science orbit. A trade study on vehicle bank rate determined that the 0.25 L/D vehicle can achieve 100% successful capture when the maximum bank rate is decreased from 30 deg/s to 20 deg/s. The decreased bank rate increases post aerocapture delta V budget to 102 meters per second for a 99.87% probability of attaining the science orbit.

Starr, Brett R.↗

Evolution of cosmic string networks

A discussion of the evolution and observable consequences of a network of cosmic strings is given. A simple model for the evolution of the string network is presented, and related to the statistical mechanics of string networks. The model predicts the long string density throughout the history of the universe from a single parameter, which researchers calculate in radiation era simulations. The statistical mechanics arguments indicate a particular thermal form for the spectrum of loops chopped off the network. Detailed numerical simulations of string networks in expanding backgrounds are performed to test the model. Consequences for large scale structure, the microwave and gravity wave backgrounds, nucleosynthesis and gravitational lensing are calculated.

Albrecht, Andreas↗

Experimental studies of the properties of 'simulated' upstream turbulence using a statistical multipoint method

In this report we present a different approach to the multipoint measurement of magnetic fields and plasma. This is called the multi-spacecraft ensemble technique (MET), essentially free of process restrictions, such as linearity and stationarity. We comprehensively discuss the other conditions and limitations intrinsic to this statistical method. We also show the results of the application of the ensemble method to the synthetic data obtained from a hybrid simulation in the region upstream of a quasi-parallel shock. The important implications of the above approach for the CLUSTER mission are discussed.

Orlowski, D. S.↗

Comparison of simulation modeling and satellite techniques for monitoring ecological processes

In 1985 improvements were made in the world climatic data base for modeling and predictive mapping; in individual process models and the overall carbon-balance models; and in the interface software for mapping the simulation results. Statistical analysis of the data base was begun. In 1986 mapping was shifted to NASA-Goddard. The initial approach involving pattern comparisons was modified to a more statistical approach. A major accomplishment was the expansion and improvement of a global data base of measurements of biomass and primary production, to complement the simulation data. The main accomplishments during 1987 included: production of a master tape with all environmental and satellite data and model results for the 1600 sites; development of a complete mapping system used for the initial color maps comparing annual and monthly patterns of Normalized Difference Vegetation Index (NDVI), actual evapotranspiration, net primary productivity, gross primary productivity, and net ecosystem production; collection of more biosphere measurements for eventual improvement of the biological models; and development of some initial monthly models for primary productivity, based on satellite data.

Box, Elgene O.↗

Error coding simulations in C

When data is transmitted through a noisy channel, errors are produced within the data rendering it indecipherable. Through the use of error control coding techniques, the bit error rate can be reduced to any desired level without sacrificing the transmission data rate. The Astrionics Laboratory at Marshall Space Flight Center has decided to use a modular, end-to-end telemetry data simulator to simulate the transmission of data from flight to ground and various methods of error control. The simulator includes modules for random data generation, data compression, Consultative Committee for Space Data Systems (CCSDS) transfer frame formation, error correction/detection, error generation and error statistics. The simulator utilizes a concatenated coding scheme which includes CCSDS standard (255,223) Reed-Solomon (RS) code over GF(2(exp 8)) with interleave depth of 5 as the outermost code, (7, 1/2) convolutional code as an inner code and CCSDS recommended (n, n-16) cyclic redundancy check (CRC) code as the innermost code, where n is the number of information bits plus 16 parity bits. The received signal-to-noise for a desired bit error rate is greatly reduced through the use of forward error correction techniques. Even greater coding gain is provided through the use of a concatenated coding scheme. Interleaving/deinterleaving is necessary to randomize burst errors which may appear at the input of the RS decoder. The burst correction capability length is increased in proportion to the interleave depth. The modular nature of the simulator allows for inclusion or exclusion of modules as needed. This paper describes the development and operation of the simulator, the verification of a C-language Reed-Solomon code, and the possibility of using Comdisco SPW(tm) as a tool for determining optimal error control schemes.

Noble, Viveca K.↗