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DOE OSTI2025

Uncertainty and Sensitivity Analysis Methods and Applications in the GDSA Framework (FY2025)

The Spent Fuel and Waste Science and Technology Campaign (SFWST) of the U.S. Department of Energy (DOE) Office of Nuclear Energy (NE) is conducting research and development on geologic disposal of spent nuclear fuel (SNF) and high-level nuclear waste (HLW). Two priorities for SFWST are design concept development and disposal system modeling. These priorities are directly addressed in the Geologic Disposal Safety Assessment (GDSA) control account, which is charged with developing a geologic repository system modeling and analysis capability, and the associated software, GDSA Framework, for evaluating disposal system performance for nuclear waste in geologic media. This report describes specific activities in the Fiscal Year (FY) 2025 associated with the GDSA Uncertainty and Sensitivity Analysis Methods work package. This report fulfills the GDSA Uncertainty and Sensitivity Analysis Methods work package (SF-25SN01030407) level 3 milestone, Uncertainty and Sensitivity Analysis Methods and Applications in GDSA Framework (FY2025) (M3SF-25SN010304072). This work was closely coordinated with the other Sandia National Laboratory GDSA work packages: the GDSA Framework Development work package (SF-25SN01030408), the GDSA Repository Systems Analysis work package (SF-25SN01030409), and the GDSA PFLOTRAN Development work package (SF-25SN01030410). This report builds on developments reported in previous GDSA Framework milestones, particularly M3SF-24SN010304072.

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DOE OSTI2024

Uncertainty and Sensitivity Analysis Methods and Applications in the GDSA Framework (FY2024)

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DOE OSTI2020

Effects of Residual Water on Storage Canister Internal Components

This report describes an evaluation of the spent nuclear fuel cladding and canister internal materials’ corrosion/oxidation due to (inadvertent) residual free water inside a dry storage canister post-dryout. Drying of spent nuclear fuel (SNF) and the impact of (inadvertent) residual water in a SNF canister is being addressed under the DOE-NE Spent Fuel and Waste Science and Technology (SFWST) program to ensure the safe extended dry storage and transportation of commercial SNF. A long-standing understanding has been that the amount of residual water in a storage canister after vacuum drying is not expected to be much more than trace amounts of 0.43 gram mole. However, recent findings from the High Burnup Demonstration project, and an Integrated Research Project show that residual free water well above the amount of approximately 0.43 gm-moles that had been assumed for a 3 torr rebound pressure, may remain within an SNF canister following prototypic drying. In fact, an NRC-NMSS sponsored study considered residual water amount as high as 55 moles. Considering the recent findings and the NRC-sponsored work, this present work was conducted to study the effects of unspecified amount of residual water on oxidation and corrosion of canister internals, i.e., it was assumed that the residual water amount is not limiting. It was assumed that the spent nuclear fuel content in the canister is not exposed to the internal environment, i.e., the packaged canister does not contain any damaged (breached) fuel.

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DOE OSTI2022

Incorporating Heterogeneity into 3D Geologic Models for the Alluvial Basin Reference Case

The unsaturated zone alluvium reference case is one of several geologic systems under consideration by the U.S. Department of Energy Office of Nuclear Energy for hosting repositories for spent nuclear fuel and associated waste (Sevougian et al., 2019). As noted by Mariner et al. (2018), the generic alluvial basin offers positive attributes that merit its consideration as a reference case by the Spent Fuel and Waste Science and Technology (SFWST) campaign. Hundreds of alluvial basins and sub-basins are scattered across the arid western United States (Figure 1-1). Precipitation and infiltration rates are relatively low with high evapotranspiration, resulting in deep regional water tables. Deep regional water tables allow for significant vertical separation between proposed repository depths and groundwater and thus longer transport paths from a hypothetical repository to an aquifer. Accumulations of alluvial sediments within these basins are typically on the order of hundreds of meters, and locally may exceed 1,000 m in thickness, as is the case for the Deming sub-basin in southern New Mexico. In alluvial basins, alluvium creates a thick geologic host medium that serves as the natural barrier system (NBS) in the conceptual model framework of a geologic disposal system and isolates the waste packages from receptors in the biosphere. Further, alluvial basin fill is typically comprised of stacked playa and lacustrine deposits along the basin axis (Perry et al., 2018). Characterized by low permeability, these layers protect the biosphere above the repository and the groundwater resources below the repository by limiting flow and transport of radionuclides.

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DOE OSTI2024

STRUCTURAL MODELING TO SUPPORT POST-YIELD ACCEPTANCE CRITERIA FOR SPENT NUCLEAR FUEL CLADDING

Spent nuclear fuel (SNF) is evaluated for structural failure during storage and transportation scenarios. The U.S. Department of Energy’s Spent Fuel and Waste Science and Technology (SFWST) program has sponsored significant research in quantifying mechanical loads on SNF during storage and transportation scenarios using experimental and modeling methods. The SFWST program has also performed significant research on measuring the mechanical behavior of irradiated SNF as defueled cladding segments and cladding with fuel pellets to measure composite behavior. This paper considers some of the key material data from the Sibling Pin testing and uses structural modeling and analysis methods that have been informed by testing to consider post-yield acceptance criteria for SNF cladding structural analysis. Test data published by Oak Ridge National Laboratory (ORNL) and Pacific Northwest National Laboratory (PNNL) are the foundation for informing the material behavior of the models developed in this study. In particular, four-point bend (4PB) tests of fueled and defueled cladding segments provide significant information about the bending failure mode of SNF. ORNL’s 4PB test data is on fueled cladding segments, so the composite behavior of SNF is demonstrated. This paper describes PNNL’s coincident beam model that was developed to approximate the composite behavior of SNF. This paper also presents PNNL’s structural dynamic finite element models of a cask tip-over scenario, which is predicted to cause the strongest mechanical loads on SNF of all postulated storage and transportation scenarios. SNF bending loads predicted in the cask tip-over scenario and cladding acceptance criteria beyond yield are considered, with justification based on the Sibling Pin test data. ASME Boiler and Pressure Vessel code stress intensity limits are also considered. The ultimate goal of this work is to aid in the justification of structural acceptance criteria for SNF cladding beyond the cladding’s irradiated yield strength for use in structural analysis of all storage and transportation scenarios.

Klymyshyn, Nicholas A.↗

DOE OSTI2020

Project Plan: Salt in Situ Heater Test

This project plan gives a high-level description of the US Department of Energy Office of Nuclear Energy (DOE-NE) Spent Fuel and Waste Disposition (SFWD) campaign in situ borehole heater test project planned for the Waste Isolation Pilot Plant (WIPP) site, titled the Brine Availability Test in Salt (BATS). BATS is the first stage in a planned sequence of tests to bolster the technical basis for disposal of heat generating waste in salt. This plan provides an overview of the schedule and responsibilities of the parties involved. This project is a collaborative effort by Sandia, Los Alamos, and Lawrence Berkeley National Laboratories to execute a series of small-diameter borehole heater tests in salt for the DOE-NE SFWD campaign. Design of a heater test in salt at WIPP has evolved over several years. The experiment has begun in January 2020 and the first phase will continue for several months with the possibility for follow on testing. BATS comprises a suite of modular tests, which consist of a group of adjacent horizontal boreholes in the wall of drifts at WIPP. Each test is centered around a packer-isolated heated borehole (12.2 cm [4.81 diameter) containing equipment for water-vapor collection and borehole closure monitoring, surrounded by smaller-diameter (up to 5.3 cm [2.11 diameter) satellite observation boreholes. Observation boreholes contain grouted-in temperature sensors, electrical resistivity tomography (ERT) sensors, and fiber optics; packer-isolated tracer release and sampling intervals; and acoustic emission (AE) piezoelectric sensors. A larger-diameter (12.2 cm [4.81) satellite borehole includes sorel and salt cement plugs, as part of an engineered barrier sealing test. The first two tests, to be implemented in parallel, are heated (target borehole wall temperature of 120 °C) and unheated, with similar arrays of observation borehole monitoring changes. Follow-on tests will be designed using information gathered from the first two tests, and may be conducted at other borehole wall temperatures, use multiple observation boreholes, and may include different measurement types and test designs. This 2020 update of the original 2018 project plan satisfies DOE-NE Spent Fuel and Waste Science and Technology (SFWST) milestone M3SF-205N010303034, as part of the SNL "Salt Disposal R&D" work package.

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DOE OSTI2020

Evaluation of Engineered Barrier Systems (FY19 Report)

This report describes research and development (R&D) activities conducted during fiscal year 2019 (FY19) specifically related to the Engineered Barrier System (EBS) R&D Work Package in the Spent Fuel and Waste Science and Technology (SFWST) Campaign supported by the United States (U.S.) Department of Eneregy (DOE). The R&D activities focus on understanding EBS component evolution and interactions within the EBS, as well as interactions between the host media and the EBS. A primary goal is to advance the development of process models that can be implemented directly within the Genreric Disposal System Analysis (GDSA) platform or that can contribute to the safety case in some manner such as building confidence, providing further insight into the processes being modeled, establishing better constraints on barrier performance, etc.The FY19 EBS activities involved not only modeling and analysis work, but experimental work as well. The report documents the FY19 progress made in seven different research areas as follows: (1) thermal analysis for the disposal of dual purpose canisters (DPCs) in sedimentary host rock using the semianalytical method, (2) tetravalent uranium solubility and speciation, (3) modeling of high temperature, thermal-hydrologic-mechanical-chemical (THMC) coupled processes, (4) integration of coupled thermalhydrologic- chemical (THC) model with GDSA using a Reduced-Order Model, (5) studying chemical controls on montmorillonite structure and swelling pressure, (6) transmission x-ray microscope for in-situ nanotomography of bentonite and shale, and (7) in-situ electrochemical testing of uranium dioxide under anoxic conditions. The R&D team consisted of subject matter experts from Sandia National Laboratories, Lawrence Berkeley National Laboratory (LBNL), Los Alamos National Laboratory (LANL), Pacific Northwest National Laboratory (PNNL), the Bureau de Recherches Géologiques et Minières (BRGM), the University of California Berkeley, and Mississippi State University. In addition, the EBS R&D work leverages international collaborations to ensure that the DOE program is active and abreast of the latest advances in nuclear waste disposal. For example, the FY19 work on modeling coupled THMC processes at high temperatures relied on the bentonite properties from the Full-scale Engineered Barrier EXperiment (FEBEX) Field Test conducted at the Grimsel Test Site in Switzerland. Overall, significant progress has been made in FY19 towards developing the modeling tools and experimental capabilities needed to investigate the performance of EBS materials and the associated interactions in the drift and the surrounding near-field environment under a variety of conditions including high temperature regimes.

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DOE OSTI2020

Engineered Barrier System Research Activities at LBNL (FY2020 Progress Report)

The design of a radioactive waste repository typically involves a multi-barrier system, including the natural barrier system (NBS), i.e., the host rock and its surrounding subsurface environment, and an engineered barrier system (EBS). The EBS is to be constructed from the man-made, engineered materials placed within a repository. The repository includes the waste form, waste canisters, buffer materials, backfill, and seals. The most common buffer material for EBS is compacted bentonite, which features low permeability and high retardation of radionuclides. Extensive studies concerning the behavior of bentonite backfill in crystalline and argillite/shale geologic environments for nuclear waste disposal have been conducted by means of laboratory experiments, numerical modeling, and large-scale in situ tests in Underground Research Laboratories (URLs) in Switzerland, France, Belgium, and Japan. This report includes the results of LBNL’s research activities conducted according to the objectives and scope of the work packages “SF-20LB01030802 Engineered Barrier System R&D - LBNL” and “SF-20LB01030806 Engineered Barrier System International Collaborations - LBNL” of the Spent Fuel and Waste Science and Technology (SFWST) (formerly called Used Fuel Disposal) Campaign of the Department of Energy’s (DOE) Office of Nuclear Energy. LBNL research studies included laboratory scale tests and modeling of the evolution of the EBS bentonite and associated coupled processes, and impacts of high temperature on parameters and processes relevant to the performance of crystalline and argillite repositories, including the evaluation of the technical basis for applying the maximum allowable temperature. The results of these studies are being addressing the technical elements necessary to evaluate the EBS design concepts. Emphasis is on the study of thermal, mechanical, and chemical processes that influence the performance of EBS, and the development of modeling capability for reliable assessment of these processes, and ultimately supporting the development of the GDSA model with detailed coupled THMC process models.

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DOE OSTI2020

M4SF-20LL010301082-Sorption Database and Model for Generic Disposal System Assessment

This progress report (Level 4 Milestone Number M4SF-20LL010301082) summarizes research conducted at Lawrence Livermore National Laboratory (LLNL) within the Argillite International Collaborations Activity Number Activity SF-20LL010301081. The activity is focused on our long-term commitment to engaging our partners in international nuclear waste repository research. The focus of this milestone is surface complexation model international collaborations. Specifically, we are developing a database framework for Spent Fuel and Waste and Science Technology (SFWST) that is aligned with the Helmholtz Zentrum Dresden Rossendorf (HZDR) sorption database development group in support of the database needs of the SFWST program.

11 NUCLEAR FUEL CYCLE AND FUEL MATERIALS↗

DOE OSTI2020

Disposal Concepts for a High-Temperature Repository in Shale.

Disposal of large, heat-generating waste packages containing the equivalent of 21 pressurized water reactor (PWR) assemblies or more is among the disposal concepts under investigation for a future repository for spent nuclear fuel (SNF) in the United States. Without a long (>200 years) surface storage period, disposal of 21-PWR or larger waste packages (especially if they contain high-burnup fuel) would result in in-drift and near-field temperatures considerably higher than considered in previous generic reference cases that assume either 4-PWR or 12-PWR waste packages (Jové Colón et al. 2014; Mariner et al. 2015; 2017). Sevougian et al. (2019c) identified high-temperature process understanding as a key research and development (R&D) area for the Spent Fuel and Waste Science and Technology (SFWST) Campaign. A two-day workshop in February 2020 brought together campaign scientists with expertise in geology, geochemistry, geomechanics, engineered barriers, waste forms, and corrosion processes to begin integrated development of a high-temperature reference case for disposal of SNF in a mined repository in a shale host rock. Building on the progress made in the workshop, the study team further explored the concepts and processes needed to form the basis for a high-temperature shale repository reference case. The results are described in this report and summarized..

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DOE OSTI2020

Evaluation of Engineered Barrier Systems FY20 Report

This report describes research and development (R&D) activities conducted during fiscal year 2020 (FY20) specifically related to the Engineered Barrier System (EBS) R&D Work Package in the Spent Fuel and Waste Science and Technology (SFWST) Campaign supported by the United States (U.S.) Department of Energy (DOE). The R&D activities focus on understanding EBS component evolution and interactions within the EBS, as well as interactions between the host media and the EBS. A primary goal is to advance the development of process models that can be implemented directly within the Generic Disposal System Analysis (GDSA) platform or that can contribute to the safety case in some manner such as building confidence, providing further insight into the processes being modeled, establishing better constraints on barrier performance, etc. The FY20 EBS activities involved not only modeling and analysis work, but experimental work as well. Despite delays to some planned activities due to COVID-19 precautions, progress was made during FY20 in multiple research areas and documented in this report as follows: (1) EBS Task Force: Task 9/FEBEX Modeling Final Report: Thermo-Hydrological Modeling with PFLOTRAN, (2) preliminary sensitivity analysis for the FEBEX in-situ heater test, (3) cement-carbonate rock interaction under saturated conditions: from laboratory to modeling, (4) hydrothermal experiments, (5) progress on investigating the high temperature behavior of the uranyl-carbonate complexes, (6) in-situ and electrochemical work for model validation, (7) investigation of the impact of high temperature on EBS bentonite with THMC modeling, (8) sorption and diffusion experiments on bentonite, (9) chemical controls on montmorillonite structure and swelling pressure, (10) microscopic origins of coupled transport processes in bentonite, (11) understanding the THMC evolution of bentonite in FEBEX-DP—coupled THMC modeling, (12) modeling in support of HotBENT, an experiment studying the effects of high temperatures on clay buffers/near-field, and (13) high temperature heating and hydration column test on bentonite.

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DOE OSTI2021

Evaluation of Engineered Barrier Systems FY21 Report

This report describes research and development (R&D) activities conducted during fiscal year 2021 (FY21) specifically related to the Engineered Barrier System (EBS) R&D Work Package in the Spent Fuel and Waste Science and Technology (SFWST) Campaign supported by the United States (U.S.) Department of Energy (DOE). The R&D activities focus on understanding EBS component evolution and interactions within the EBS, as well as interactions between the host media and the EBS. A primary goal is to advance the development of process models that can be implemented directly within the Generic Disposal System Analysis (GDSA) platform or that can contribute to the safety case in some manner such as building confidence, providing further insight into the processes being modeled, establishing better constraints on barrier performance, etc.

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DOE OSTI2022

M4SF-22LL010301062-Surface Complexation Database and Hybrid ML Model Development for GDSA

This progress report (Level 4 Milestone Number M4SF-22LL010301062) summarizes research conducted at Lawrence Livermore National Laboratory (LLNL) within the Argillite International Collaborations Activity Number Activity SF-22LL01030106. The activity is focused on our long-term commitment to engaging our partners in international nuclear waste repository research. The focus of this milestone is the establishment of international collaborations for surface complexation modeling and the associated impacts of unlocking larger, community-based datasets. More specifically, we are developing a database framework for Spent Fuel and Waste and Science Technology (SFWST) that is aligned with the Helmholtz Zentrum Dresden Rossendorf (HZDR) sorption database development group in support of the database needs of the SFWST program.

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DOE OSTI2023

Surface Complexation/Ion Exchange Hybrid Model for Radionuclide Sorption to Clay Minerals (M4SF-23LL010301062)

This progress report (Level 4 Milestone Number M4SF-23LL010301062) summarizes research conducted at Lawrence Livermore National Laboratory (LLNL) within the Argillite International Collaborations Activity Number SF-23LL01030106. The activity is focused on our long-term commitment to engaging our partners in international nuclear waste repository research. The focus of this milestone is the establishment of international collaborations for surface complexation modeling and the associated impacts of unlocking larger, community-based datasets. More specifically, we are developing a database framework for Spent Fuel and Waste and Science Technology (SFWST) that is aligned with the Helmholtz Zentrum Dresden Rossendorf (HZDR) sorption database development group in support of the database needs of the SFWST program. In our FY22 effort, we described a detailed analysis of U(VI) sorption to quartz through both traditional surface complexation modeling and through a hybrid ML framework. In FY23, effort was placed on publication of these results and expansion of the LLNL surface complexation and ion exchange database (L-SCIE) in order to assess mineral-based radionuclide retardation under a wider variety of geochemical conditions (e.g., ionic strength, varying electrolyte compositions). Efforts were initiated to expand L-SCIE to include radionuclide surface complexation and ion exchange to clays that are relevant to subsurface geochemical processes occurring at nuclear waste repositories. In particular, a large source of sorption data for clays resides at the Paul Scherrer Institute (PSI) (work primarily by Bradbury and Baeyens) and we initiated discussions on how to retrieve those data and apply FAIR principles to those datasets. In addition to L-SCIE development, two hybrid models that incorporate AI/ML were investigated and compared to discern the most promising approaches for accurate and precise estimations of radionuclide retardation. Key considerations for future model development include (1) the ability to reduce computational burden on determining retardation coefficients for PA and (2) the ability to quantify and predict radionuclide-mineral partitioning at a more efficient, rapid pace due to automated workflows. Upon the careful consideration of the most effective modeling approaches, we are identifying ways to implement these approaches into PA. Ultimately, the data science-based workflows will provide a major incentive for other institutions to adopt a FAIR-formatted, interoperable database. LLNL will play a key role in disseminating sorption data and acting as good data stewards by updating the database in a consistent format and assessing the quality of the newly assimilated data in an organized fashion. To this end, all data and workflows are open access and made available on the LLNL Seaborg research website (https://seaborg.llnl.gov/resources/geochemical-databases-modeling-codes).

38 RADIATION CHEMISTRY, RADIOCHEMISTRY, AND NUCLEA↗

DOE OSTI2023

Advances in 3D Geologic Modeling of Alluvial Basins with a Focus on Facies and Property Modeling

The unsaturated zone alluvium reference case is one of several geologic systems under consideration by the U.S. Department of Energy Office of Nuclear Energy for hosting repositories for spent nuclear fuel and associated waste (Sevougian et al., 2019). As noted by Mariner et al. (2018), the generic alluvial basin offers positive attributes that merit its consideration as a reference case by the Spent Fuel and Waste Science and Technology (SFWST) campaign. There are hundreds of alluvial basins and sub-basins scattered across the arid western United States (Figure 1-1). Precipitation and infiltration rates are relatively low with high evapotranspiration, resulting in vertical separation between repository and water table and thus longer transport paths to an aquifer. Accumulations of alluvial sediments within these basins are typically on the order of hundreds of meters, and locally may exceed 1,000 m in thickness, as is the case for the Deming sub-basin in southern New Mexico. A thick geologic host medium, which serves as the natural barrier system (NBS) in the conceptual model framework of a geologic disposal system, isolates the waste packages from receptors in the biosphere. Further, alluvial basin fill is typically comprised of stacked playa and lacustrine deposits along the basin axis (Perry et al., 2018). Characterized by low permeability, these layers protect the biosphere above the repository and the groundwater resources below the repository.

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DOE OSTI2024

M3SF-24LL010301062-Surface Complexation/Ion Exchange Data Integration for Radionuclide Sorption to Clay Minerals

This progress report (Level 3 Milestone Number M3SF-24LL010301062) summarizes research conducted at Lawrence Livermore National Laboratory (LLNL) within the Argillite International Collaborations Work Package SF-24LL01030106. The activity is focused on our long-term commitment to engaging our partners in international nuclear waste repository research. The focus of this milestone is the establishment of international collaborations for sorption modeling and the associated impacts of unlocking larger, community-based datasets. More specifically, we are developing a database framework for Spent Fuel and Waste and Science Technology (SFWST) that is aligned with the Helmholtz Zentrum Dresden Rossendorf (HZDR) and other international sorption database development groups in support of the database needs of the SFWST program.

38 RADIATION CHEMISTRY, RADIOCHEMISTRY, AND NUCLEA↗

DOE OSTI2022

Finite Element Modeling of Spent Nuclear Fuel in Dry Storage under Seismic Excitation

Spent nuclear fuel (SNF) is currently stored at independent spent fuel storage installations (ISFSIs) at nuclear power plant sites across the US. The US Department of Energy (DOE) Spent Fuel and Waste Science and Technology (SFWST) program is currently working to understand the response of SNF during a seismic event. This investigation is part of a long-term effort by DOE to quantify the external mechanical loads on SNF. The SFWST program has recently completed campaigns evaluating SNF behavior during normal conditions of transport and in 30 cm package drop scenarios; both campaigns included a combination of testing and modeling. Likewise, the investigation into seismic response of SNF will include full-size shake table tests of a vertical storage overpack containing instrumented surrogate fuel assemblies, as well as pre- and post-test finite element modeling. This work focuses on the development of finite element models simulating the planned test configuration. The seismic response is calculated at two scales: at the package level, and at the fuel level. The package level model evaluates the behavior of the storage overpack and its contents in response to the ground motions of a representative earthquake. The motion of the package is input to the fuel level model, which consists of a detailed finite element model of a 17x17 or 16x16 pressurized water reactor (PWR) fuel assembly or of a 10x10 boiling water reactor (BWR) fuel assembly. The stress and strain on individual components such as fuel rods and guide tubes are extracted from this model. This work details the SNF response to various input ground motions, considering representative earthquakes in the Central and Eastern US under various site conditions. Also discussed is the development of a “reduced scope” finite element model of the SNF, which consists of a single fuel rod while retaining the dynamic response of the entire fuel assembly. This reduced scope model addresses the significant computational expense of modeling the SNF under long-duration input ground motions and facilitates simulating additional parameter variations of the model beyond the as-tested configuration. The modeling results provide important insight that will help to inform future testing and modeling efforts by the SFWST program to close the knowledge gap related to external loads on SNF.

Kadooka, Kevin↗