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Search indexed NASA NTRS and DOE OSTI research on propulsion, heat transfer, battery materials and energy systems. Follow report and document links to the original sources.

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At least 73 records · Page 4
All sourcesNASA NTRSDOE OSTI
DOE OSTI2026

Development of a Framework and Methodology for an Advanced Reactor Materials Environmental Effects Design Guide

Advanced non-light-water reactor components may operate at elevated temperature while experiencing cyclic loading, significant neutron irradiation, and exposure to reactor coolant. ASME Boiler and Pressure Vessel Code, Section III, Division 5, provides design rules for elevated-temperature service but does not include specific procedures to account for environmental effects on material properties. This report develops an initial framework and methodology for an Environmental Effects Design Guide (EEDG) focused on neutron irradiation; coolant-environment effects are reserved for future work. The proposed approach treats irradiation as a property-based overlay on the existing Division 5 design process, with two routes: a sparse-data route applying two reduction factors — FCR on creep-rupture strength and FF on fatigue life — for the creep-fatigue evaluations that typically control the design of advanced high-temperature reactor components, and a fuller framework developing the property-to-rule chain across the four Division 5 checks (primary load, strain limits and ratcheting, creep-fatigue, and buckling), together with swelling and weldments as scope items. Both routes are scoped by an in-pile qualification that restricts the use of post-irradiation-examination-derived properties in regimes where an in-pile mechanism could control the design outcome. Illustrative outputs derived on a compiled annealed Type 316 database — FCR ≈ 0.78–0.86 and FF ≈ 0.4 — demonstrate the calculation method within that specific dataset. The framework is an initial, testable design-rule concept; it identifies a practical path for preliminary design evaluations under sparse data and the material data and testing needed to develop the framework further.

Barua, Bipul (ORCID:0000000247184113)↗
DOE OSTI2020

National population mapping from sparse survey data: A hierarchical Bayesian modeling framework to account for uncertainty

Population estimates are critical for government services, development projects, and public health campaigns. Such data are typically obtained through a national population and housing census. However, population estimates can quickly become inaccurate in localized areas, particularly where migration or displacement has occurred. Some conflict-affected and resource-poor countries have not conducted a census in over 10 y. We developed a hierarchical Bayesian model to estimate population numbers in small areas based on enumeration data from sample areas and nationwide information about administrative boundaries, building locations, settlement types, and other factors related to population density. We demonstrated this model by estimating population sizes in every 10- m grid cell in Nigeria with national coverage. These gridded population estimates and areal population totals derived from them are accompanied by estimates of uncertainty based on Bayesian posterior probabilities. The model had an overall error rate of 67 people per hectare (mean of absolute residuals) or 43% (using scaled residuals) for predictions in out-of-sample survey areas (approximately 3 ha each), with increased precision expected for aggregated population totals in larger areas. This statistical approach represents a significant step toward estimating populations at high resolution with national coverage in the absence of a complete and recent census, while also providing reliable estimates of uncertainty to support informed decision making.

99 GENERAL AND MISCELLANEOUS↗
DOE OSTI2026

Rapid Analyses of Sparse Seismoacoustic Data Reveals the Timing and Size of the Accurate Energetic Systems Explosion

On 10 October 2025 an explosion occurred at a facility operated by Accurate Energetic Systems in Humphreys County, Tennessee. The incident resulted in 16 fatalities and created a debris field over several square kilometers. To address remaining questions about explosion timing and size, we collected about 20 seismic and 19 acoustic records of the blast from sensors up to hundreds of kilometers away. We then deployed 10 distinct physics-based, reduced order models (ROMs) that used validated geological structure and atmospheric conditions from the time of the event, along with observations of body- and surface-wave energy, as well as acoustic overpressure and phase duration. Each ROM predicted either timing, yield estimates, or both. We binned these estimates and their uncertainties according to each ROMs’ assumptions about confinement (aboveground, buried fully coupled, and buried partially coupled) and combined these estimates with other forensic data to conclude that the event occurred as a single, aboveground explosion on 10 December 2025 12:47:50.8 ±0.1 s with a yield equivalent to 11.8 [2.3,16.5] tons of Trinitrotoluene. Our estimates align with the Bureau of Alcohol, Tobacco, Firearms and Explosives inventory reports of 11–13 tons. This multimethod approach demonstrates the use of remotely observed geophysical data to rapidly aid conventional forensic investigations of accidental explosions.

45 MILITARY TECHNOLOGY, WEAPONRY, AND NATIONAL DEF↗
DOE OSTI2022

Zero-Truncated Poisson Tensor Decomposition for Sparse Count Data

We propose a novel statistical inference paradigm for zero-inflated multiway count data that dispenses with the need to distinguish between true and false zero counts. Our approach ignores all zero entries and applies zero-truncated Poisson regression on the positive counts. Inference is accomplished via tensor completion that imposes low-rank structure on the Poisson parameter space. Our main result shows that an $\textit{N}$-way rank-R parametric tensor 𝓜 ϵ (0, ∞) $I$Χ∙∙∙Χ$I$ generating Poisson observations can be accurately estimated from approximately $IR^2 \text{log}^2_2(I)$ non-zero counts for a nonnegative canonical polyadic decomposition. Several numerical experiments are presented demonstrating that our zero-truncated paradigm is comparable to the ideal scenario where the locations of false zero counts are known $\textit{a priori}$.

97 MATHEMATICS AND COMPUTING↗
NASA NTRS1981

Preliminary results of an assessment of FGGE 'special effort' data and its impact on GLAS model analyses and forecasts

Attempts to improve the handling of satellite temperature and cloud-derived data during the FGGE experiment are compared with results gained during the trials. The satellite data were edited by assigning quality indicators to temperature soundings by means of the IR TV camera on the Tiros-N spacecraft, and to cloud-tracked wind data from GEO satellites. The data quality were assayed on the basis of horizontal, vertical, and temporal consistency of observed synoptic conditions. The data interpreter-operator retrieved all available data for an area, determined which regions were data-sparse, then used data-rich areas nearby to supply smoothed gradients into the zones with insufficient data. Results are presented for measurements taken during Jan.-Feb., and May 1979 over Alaska. It was found that enhanced and operational IR soundings were mostly equivalent. Some improvements were implemented in the 1000-300 mb layer thickness and intensification of atmospheric thermal gradients. Interactive processing was concluded to be an aid to processing Tiros-N data. The data-improvements treatment was found to significantly modify large scale analyses.

Atlas, R.↗
NASA NTRS2008

Orbit Determination During Spacecraft Emergencies with Sparse Tracking Data - THEMIS and TDRS-3 Lessons Learned

This paper provides an overview of the lessons learned from the National Aeronautics and Space Administration (NASA) Goddard Space Flight Center s (GSFC) Flight Dynamics Facility s (FDF) support of the Time History of Events and Macroscale Interactions during Substorms (THEMIS) spacecraft emergency in February 2007, and the Tracking and Data Relay Satellite-3 (TDRS-3) spacecraft emergency in March 2006. A successful and timely recovery from both of these spacecraft emergencies depended on accurate knowledge of the orbit. Unfortunately, the combination of each spacecraft emergency with very little tracking data contributed to difficulties in estimating and predicting the orbit and delayed recovery efforts in both cases. In both the THEMIS and TDRS-3 spacecraft emergencies, numerous factors contributed to problems with obtaining nominal tracking data measurements. This paper details the various causative factors and challenges. This paper further enumerates lessons learned from FDF s recovery efforts involving the THEMIS and TDRS-3 spacecraft emergencies and scant tracking data, as well as recommendations for improvements and corrective actions. In addition, this paper describes the broad range of resources and complex navigation methods employed within the FDF for supporting critical navigation activities during all mission phases, including launch, early orbit, and on-orbit operations.

Morinelli, Patrick J.↗
NASA NTRS1985

Development of the variational SEASAT data analysis technique

Surface winds are closely associated with the surface pressure gradient. The variational SEASAT data analysis technique was designed to improve the sea level pressure analysis in the data sparse areas. The SEASAT-derived surface wind data were compared with observations from the Joint Air Sea Interaction Experiment (JASIN) and it was found that the satellite-derived sea surface wind has an accuracy of up to + or - 2 m/s in speed and + or - 20 deg in direction. These numbers are considered characteristic of the retrieved SEASAT wind field. By combining the densely spaced SEASAT-derived wind data with the sparsely distributed sea-level pressure observation via a variational adjustment technique subject to some appropriate physical constraint(s), an improvement in the sea-level pressure analysis is expected. It is demonstrated that a simple marine boundary layer scheme in conjunction with a variational adjustment technique can be developed to help improve the sea-level pressure analysis by the SEASAT-derived wind of a limited-area domain in the ocean.

Sasaki, Y. K.↗
DOE OSTI2026

Bayesian Physics Informed Spatio-Temporal Network for Streamflow Data Imputation

Reliable reconstruction of incomplete streamflow records is critical for improving hydrological forecasting, flood preparedness, and water resource management. However, large observational gaps and uncertainties in governing physical parameters limit the accuracy of traditional statistical and machinelearning imputation frameworks. To address these challenges, we develop a Bayesian Physics-Informed Spatio-Temporal Network (BPI-STNet) that jointly captures spatial and temporal dependencies while enforcing hydrologic consistency through embedded physical constraints. The framework integrates a GraphSAGE-LSTM architecture to model spatial connectivity across gauges and temporal flow dynamics, coupled with a Bayesian update mechanism to estimate uncertain parameters in a simplified water-balance framework. Unlike conventional physics-informed networks that rely on sampling-based posterior estimation, BPI-STNet derives an analytic solution to the inverse problem, allowing closed-form Bayesian updates of uncertain parameters Λ={α,β,k} using Gaussian priors and likelihoods. Applied to daily observations from the Susquehanna River Basin (1980-2022), BPI-STNet achieves substantial improvements over a purely data-driven RGNN baseline, which reduced RMSE by 23 % and MAE by 9 %, and achieving an average NSE values up to 0.96. The results demonstrate that coupling Bayesian inference with physics-informed learning yields physically consistent, uncertainty-aware reconstructions that preserve the temporal persistence and statistical distribution of observed flows. The proposed framework establishes a generalizable paradigm for data-sparse hydrologic systems where both data fidelity and physical interpretability are essential.

Krishnan Kutty Ambika, Anukesh [ORNL] (ORCID:00000↗
DOE OSTI2021

Multiscale Modeling Meets Machine Learning: What Can We Learn?

Machine learning is increasingly recognized as a promising technology in the biological, biomedical, and behavioral sciences. There can be no argument that this technique is incredibly successful in image recognition with immediate applications in diagnostics including electrophysiology, radiology, or pathology, where we have access to massive amounts of annotated data. However, machine learning often performs poorly in prognosis, especially when dealing with sparse data. This is a field where classical physics-based simulation seems to remain irreplaceable. In this review, we identify areas in the biomedical sciences where machine learning and multiscale modeling can mutually benefit from one another: Machine learning can integrate physics-based knowledge in the form of governing equations, boundary conditions, or constraints to manage ill-posted problems and robustly handle sparse and noisy data; multiscale modeling can integrate machine learn- ing to create surrogate models, identify system dynamics and parameters, analyze sensitivities, and quantify uncertainty to bridge the scales and understand the emergence of function. With a view towards applications in the life sciences, we discuss the state of the art of combining machine learning and multiscale modeling, identify applications and opportunities, raise open questions, and address potential challenges and limitations. We anticipate that it will stimulate discussion within the community of computational mechanics and reach out to other disciplines including mathematics, statistics, computer science, artificial intelligence, biomedicine, systems biology, and precision medicine to join forces towards creating robust and efficient models for biological systems.

machine learning, multiscale modeling, physics-bas↗
DOE OSTI2021

Operator learning for predicting multiscale bubble growth dynamics

We report simulating and predicting multiscale problems that couple multiple physics and dynamics across many orders of spatiotemporal scales is a great challenge that has not been investigated systematically by deep neural networks (DNNs). Herein, we develop a framework based on operator regression, the so-called deep operator network (DeepONet), with the long-term objective to simplify multiscale modeling by avoiding the fragile and time-consuming “hand-shaking” interface algorithms for stitching together heterogeneous descriptions of multiscale phenomena. To this end, as a first step, we investigate if a DeepONet can learn the dynamics of different scale regimes, one at the deterministic macroscale and the other at the stochastic microscale regime with inherent thermal fluctuations. Specifically, we test the effectiveness and accuracy of the DeepONet in predicting multirate bubble growth dynamics, which is described by a Rayleigh–Plesset (R–P) equation at the macroscale and modeled as a stochastic nucleation and cavitation process at the microscale by dissipative particle dynamics (DPD). First, we generate data using the R–P equation for multirate bubble growth dynamics caused by randomly time-varying liquid pressures drawn from Gaussian random fields (GRFs). Our results show that properly trained DeepONets can accurately predict the macroscale bubble growth dynamics and can outperform long short-term memory networks. We also demonstrate that the DeepONet can extrapolate accurately outside the input distribution using only very few new measurements. Subsequently, we train the DeepONet with DPD data corresponding to stochastic bubble growth dynamics. Although the DPD data are noisy and we only collect sparse data points on the trajectories, the trained DeepONet model is able to predict accurately the mean bubble dynamics for time-varying GRF pressures. Taken together, our findings demonstrate that DeepONets can be employed to unify the macroscale and microscale models of the multirate bubble growth problem, hence providing new insight into the role of operator regression via DNNs in tackling realistic multiscale problems and in simplifying modeling with heterogeneous descriptions.

37 INORGANIC, ORGANIC, PHYSICAL, AND ANALYTICAL CH↗
DOE OSTI2026

ECLEIRS: Exact conservation law embedded identification of reduced states for parameterized nonlinear conservation laws from sparse and noisy data

Multi-query applications such as parameter estimation, uncertainty quantification and design optimization for parameterized partial differential equation (PDE) systems are expensive. While reduced/latent state dynamics approaches for parameterized PDEs offer a viable alternative, these approaches rely on high-quality data and struggle with highly sparse spatiotemporal noisy measurements typically obtained from experiments. Furthermore, there is no guarantee that these models satisfy governing physical conservation laws. In this article, we propose a reduced state dynamics approach, referred to as ECLEIRS, that embeds exact conservation in the solution and flux representation by utilizing a space-time divergence-free neural network formulation. We compare ECLEIRS with other reduced state dynamics approaches, those that do not enforce any physical constraints and those with physics-informed loss functions, for three shock-propagation problems: 1-D advection, 1-D Burgers and 2-D Euler equations. In conclusion, the numerical experiments conducted in this study demonstrate that ECLEIRS provides the most accurate prediction of dynamics for unseen parameters even in the presence of highly sparse and noisy data.

97 MATHEMATICS AND COMPUTING↗
NASA NTRS1986

Development of a variational SEASAT data analysis technique

Oceans are data-sparse areas in terms of conventional weather observations. The surface pressure field obtained solely by analyzing the conventional weather data is not expected to possess high accuracy. On the other hand, in entering asynoptic data such as satellite-derived temperature soundings into an atmospheric prediction system, an improved surface analysis is crucial for obtaining more accurate weather predictions because the mass distribution of the entire atmosphere will be better represented in the system as a result of the more accurate surface pressure field. In order to obtain improved surface pressure analyses over the oceans, a variational adjustment technique was developed to help blend the densely distributed surface wind data derived from the SEASAT-A radar observations into the sparsely distributed conventional pressure data. A simple marine boundary layer scheme employed in the adjustment technique was discussed. In addition, a few aspects of the current technique were determined by numerical experiments.

Sasaki, Y. K.↗
NASA NTRS2020

Famine Early Warning Systems Network (FEWS NET) Land Data Assimilation System (LDAS) and Other Assimilated Hydrological Data at NASA GES DISC

The NASA Goddard Earth Sciences Data and Information Services Center (GES DISC) provides science support for several data sets relevant to agriculture and food security, including the Famine Early Warning Systems Network (FEWS NET) Land Data Assimilation System (LDAS), or FLDAS data set. The GES DISC is one of twelve NASA Earth Observing System (EOS) data centers that process, archive, document, and distribute data from Earth science missions and related projects. The GES DISC hosts a wide range of remote sensing and model data, and provides reliable and robust data access and other services to users worldwide. Beyond data archive and access, the GES DISC offers many services to visualize and analyze the data. This presentation provides a summary of the hydrological data available at the GES DISC, along with an overview of related data services. Specifically, the FLDAS data set has been adapted to work with domains, data streams, and monitoring and forecast requirements associated with food security assessment in data-sparse, developing country settings. The FLDAS global monthly data have a 0.1 x 0.1 degree spatial resolution covering the period from January 1982 to present. Global FLDAS monthly anomaly and monthly climatology data are also available at the GES DISC to evaluate how current conditions compare to averages over the FLDAS 35-year period. Several case studies using the FLDAS soil moisture, evapotranspiration, rainfall, runoff, and surface temperature data will be presented.

Loeser, Carlee↗
NASA NTRS2020

A Brief Assessment of the Impact of Nearly 40 Years of Assimilated Observations Over the Amazon Basin

Adding a Forecast Sensitivity-based Observation Impact component to Version 2 of the Modern Era Retrospective-analysis for Research and Applications, the present study provides an assessment of the impact of nearly 40 years of observations on short-range (24-hr) forecasts over the Amazon basin. Under self-verification, forecast errors are found to slightly increase from the early data-sparse days to the more recent years, when data dramatically increase. Throughout the reanalysis, satellite radiances dominate in volume, but only before 1999 they dominate the impacts. Beyond 1999, over 50% of forecast error reduction is associated with conventional observations (radiosondes). Atmospheric Motion Vectors are also found to be large contributors to error reduction, but their contribution reduces in dry periods. In opposition to Atmospheric Motion Vectors, satellite radiances tend to contribute more in the dry season. Results provide motivation for additional conventional observations and the use of all-sky treatment of radiances.

F. L. R. Diniz↗