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NASA NTRS2016

Spacecraft Charging and Auroral Boundary Predictions in Low Earth Orbit

Auroral charging of spacecraft is an important class of space weather impacts on technological systems in low Earth orbit. In order for space weather models to accurately specify auroral charging environments, they must provide the appropriate plasma environment characteristics responsible for charging. Improvements in operational space weather prediction capabilities relevant to charging must be tested against charging observations.

Minow, Joseph I.↗

NASA NTRS2014

The Main Pillar: Assessment of Space Weather Observational Asset Performance Supporting Nowcasting, Forecasting and Research to Operations

Space weather forecasting critically depends upon availability of timely and reliable observational data. It is therefore particularly important to understand how existing and newly planned observational assets perform during periods of severe space weather. Extreme space weather creates challenging conditions under which instrumentation and spacecraft may be impeded or in which parameters reach values that are outside the nominal observational range. This paper analyzes existing and upcoming observational capabilities for forecasting, and discusses how the findings may impact space weather research and its transition to operations. A single limitation to the assessment is lack of information provided to us on radiation monitor performance, which caused us not to fully assess (i.e., not assess short term) radiation storm forecasting. The assessment finds that at least two widely spaced coronagraphs including L4 would provide reliability for Earth-bound CMEs. Furthermore, all magnetic field measurements assessed fully meet requirements. However, with current or even with near term new assets in place, in the worst-case scenario there could be a near-complete lack of key near-real-time solar wind plasma data of severe disturbances heading toward and impacting Earth's magnetosphere. Models that attempt to simulate the effects of these disturbances in near real time or with archival data require solar wind plasma observations as input. Moreover, the study finds that near-future observational assets will be less capable of advancing the understanding of extreme geomagnetic disturbances at Earth, which might make the resulting space weather models unsuitable for transition to operations.

Extreme events↗

NASA NTRS2014

Geospace Missions for Space Weather and the Next Scientific Challenges

Currently there is an active international flotilla of spacecraft that continuously observe and measure the dynamic space environment that surrounds our planet. These spacecraft have remote sensors for photons and particles, and in situ instruments for plasmas, fields and particles. They provide the data input to guide, motivate, and validate predictive space weather models used by decision makers and for a myriad of scientific investigations. This talk will briefly survey the current Geospace missions relevant to space weather, what they observe, and why. This talk will conclude with the description of two most significant scientific challenges that must be met in order to advance our understanding and prediction of space weather, and its impacts to society. They are the genesis and evolution of ionospheric variability and the interplanetary magnetic field. Concepts of possible solutions for these two challenges will be discussed.

Spann, James↗

NASA NTRSDate not supplied

The Effect of Stochastic Acceleration on the Dynamics of Solar Energetic Particles in the Heliosphere

Solar Energetic Particles (SEPs) are crucial in space weather phenomena, impacting space-based technologies and human activities in space. Understanding the dynamics of SEPs, including their acceleration and transport mechanisms, is essential for improving predictive models and mitigating adverse effects. This study investigates the impact of stochastic acceleration (SA) on the dynamics of SEPs within the heliosphere. By integrating stochastic acceleration into a SEP transport model, we assess its impact relative to diffusive shock acceleration (DSA). The investigation utilizes the Adaptive Mesh Particle Simulator (AMPS) within the Space Weather Modeling Framework (SWMF) to simulate SEP dynamics, incorporating solar wind parameters and turbulence from the Alfven Wave Solar Model (AWSoM). To do this, we solve the focused transport equation to model the propagation of SEPs along magnetic field lines, extending these lines to 5 AU to incorporate the potential effects of pitch angle scattering beyond 1 AU. This aspect could notably impact the decay phase of a SEP event. Modeling the transport of SEPs is coupled with the simulation of solar wind dynamics, the interplanetary magnetic field, and the characteristics of Alfven wave turbulence. This presentation covers the modeling approach used in this research, the characterization of the impact of the stochastic acceleration, and the role of pitch angle scattering at various heliocentric distances on the dynamics of the SEP events' decay phase.

SEP↗

NASA NTRS2019

Comprehensive Assessment of Models and Events Using Library Tools (CAMEL) Framework: Time Series Comparisons

The Comprehensive Assessment of Models and Events using Library Tools (CAMEL) framework leverages existing Community Coordinated Modeling Center services: Run on Request post processing tools that generate model time series outputs and the new Community Coordinated Modeling Center Metadata Registry that describes simulation runs using Space Physics Archive Search and Extract metadata. The new CAMEL visualization tool compares the modeled time series with observational data and computes a suite of skill scores such as Prediction Efficiency, Root Mean Square Error, and Symmetric Signed Percentage Bias. Model data pairs used for skill calculations are obtained considering a user selected maximum difference between the time of observation and the nearest model output. The system renders available data for all locations and time periods selected using interactive visualizations that allow the user to zoom, pan, and pick data values along traces. Skill scores are reported for each selected event or aggregated over all events for all participating model runs. Separately, scores are reported for all locations (satellites or stations) and for each location individually. We are building on past experiences with model data comparisons of magnetosphere and ionosphere model outputs from GEM2008, GEMCEDAR Electrodynamics Thermosphere Ionosphere, and the SWPC Operational Space Weather Model challenges. The CAMEL visualization tool is demonstrated using three validation studies: (a) Wang Sheeley Arge heliosphere simulations compared against OMNI solar wind data, (b) ground magnetic perturbations from several magnetosphere and ionosphere electrodynamics models as observed by magnetometers, and (c) electron fluxes from several ring current simulations compared to Radiation Belt Storm Probes Helium Oxygen Proton Electron instrument measurements, integrated over different energy ranges.

Rastätter, Lutz↗

NASA NTRSDate not supplied

The Circulation of the Plasmasphere Fluid during the Erosion Event on September 8, 2017

A strong solar wind pressure pulse triggered the magnetic storm on September 7, 2017. Near the end of September 7, the z-component of the interplanetary magnetic field (IMF Bz) dropped from 9 to -10 nT in 30 min. The IMF Bz remained at the level of -10 nT for 2 hours and then had another rapid drop to -31 nT in 30 min. The sudden plunge of IMF Bz and the associated strong convection electric field stirred up the storm main phase with Dst falling from 0 to -122 nT from 2200 UT on September 7 to 0200 UT on the 8th. Severe plasmasphere erosion was observed on September 8 by multiple spacecraft, such as the Van Allen Probes and the Arase satellite. In this study, we examine the fate of the eroded plasmasphere particles during this event by model simulation as well as satellite data analysis. The simulation tool we use is the Space Weather Modeling Framework (SWMF)/Block-Adaptive Tree Solarwind Roe-type Upwind Scheme (BATS-R-US) model coupled with the Comprehensive Inner Magnetosphere-Ionosphere (CIMI) model. One of the distinctive capabilities of the SWMF/BATSRUS-CIMI model is that it treats the cold plasmas in the plasmasphere as a separate fluid in the MHD equations. As a result, the transport and circulation of the plasmasphere fluid in the global magnetosphere can be traced and the impacts of this cold fluid on the global magnetosphere can be evaluated. In this paper, we will show how the drainage plume is formed during the storm and how the plasmasphere fluid is transported to the flank and lobe regions and eventually to the plasma sheet and reenters into the plasmasphere. We will validate our simulation by plasmasphere signatures observed in both the inner and outer magnetosphere.

Mei-Ching Fok↗

NASA NTRS2013

Modeling of Particle Acceleration at Multiple Shocks via Diffusive Shock Acceleration: Preliminary Results

Successful forecasting of energetic particle events in space weather models require algorithms for correctly predicting the spectrum of ions accelerated from a background population of charged particles. We present preliminary results from a model that diffusively accelerates particles at multiple shocks. Our basic approach is related to box models in which a distribution of particles is diffusively accelerated inside the box while simultaneously experiencing decompression through adiabatic expansion and losses from the convection and diffusion of particles outside the box. We adiabatically decompress the accelerated particle distribution between each shock by either the method explored in Melrose and Pope (1993) and Pope and Melrose (1994) or by the approach set forth in Zank et al. (2000) where we solve the transport equation by a method analogous to operator splitting. The second method incorporates the additional loss terms of convection and diffusion and allows for the use of a variable time between shocks. We use a maximum injection energy (E(sub max)) appropriate for quasi-parallel and quasi-perpendicular shocks and provide a preliminary application of the diffusive acceleration of particles by multiple shocks with frequencies appropriate for solar maximum (i.e., a non-Markovian process).

Parker, L. Neergaard↗

NASA NTRSDate not supplied

Big Data Challenges at CCMC

Like other research centers, the Community Coordinated Modeling Center (CCMC, https://ccmc.gsfc.nasa.gov) at NASA Goddard Space Flight Center (GSFC) is also experiencing the big data challenges. CCMC hosts over 80 space weather models for Runs On Request (ROR), Continuous Runs and Instant Runs simulation services for the research community. In addition, CCMC has started to support simulation output onboarding in response to the Open Science initiative. Overall, we have accumulated over petabytes of simulation output data and are rapidly growing. In this presentation, we will discuss our data and storage challenges. We will present our attempts to address our challenges and any associated lessons learned. CCMC uses Apache Airflow to ensure data transfer is consistent. We will give a brief overview on how we leverage Apache Airflow to enhance our environment.

space weather↗

NASA NTRSDate not supplied

Big Data Challenges at the Community Coordinated Modeling Center (CCMC)

space weather↗

NASA NTRSDate not supplied

Magnetic Mapping in the Inner Magnetosphere using Kamodo

Many models require specialized access and interpolation schemes to effectively extract and interpolate their outputs. In particular, the Block-Adaptive Tree Solarwind Roe Upwind Scheme (BATSRUS) component of the Space Weather Modeling Framework (SWMF) requires Kamodo to take advantage of its block-based adaptive grid structure, and the Lyon-Fedder Mobarry magnetosphere model (or its successor GAMERA) needs a scheme that appreciates the distorted spherical arrangement of grid vertices on a non-orthogonal grid. With the flythrough layer developed by Ringuette et al. (SH42E-2337), the underlying model readers have been adapted to use multiple time steps in a single Python session to perform 4- dimensional interpolations in time and space. Kamodo now utilizes lazy interpolation that loads data only when needed. We present the successful integration of SWMF/BATSRUS magnetosphere access and interpolation into the new 4D Kamodo framework utilizing an external library of C code. Through function composition, Kamodo facilitates the calculation of derived quantities and the transformation of positions and vectors into different coordinate systems. This work is a significant step towards performing field line tracing in Kamodo with SWMF magnetosphere outputs.

Lutz Rastaetter↗

NASA NTRS2022

Constraining Global Coronal Models with Multiple Independent Observables

Global coronal models seek to produce an accurate physical representation of the Sun's atmosphere that can be used, for example, to drive space-weather models. Assessing their accuracy is a complex task, and there are multiple observational pathways to provide constraints and tune model parameters. Here, we combine several such independent constraints, defining a model-agnostic framework for standardized comparison. We require models to predict the distribution of coronal holes at the photosphere, and neutral line topology at the model's outer boundary. We compare these predictions to extreme-ultraviolet (EUV) observations of coronal hole locations, white-light Carrington maps of the streamer belt, and the magnetic sector structure measured in situ by Parker Solar Probe and 1 au spacecraft. We study these metrics for potential field source surface (PFSS) models as a function of source surface height and magnetogram choice, as well as comparing to the more physical Wang–Sheeley–Arge (WSA) and the Magnetohydrodynamic Algorithm outside a Sphere (MAS) models. We find that simultaneous optimization of PFSS models to all three metrics is not currently possible, implying a trade-off between the quality of representation of coronal holes and streamer belt topology. WSA and MAS results show the additional physics that they include address this by flattening the streamer belt while maintaining coronal hole sizes, with MAS also improving coronal hole representation relative to WSA. We conclude that this framework is highly useful for inter- and intra-model comparisons. Integral to the framework is the standardization of observables required of each model, evaluating different model aspects.

S. T. Badman↗

NASA NTRS2015

Solar Storm GIC Forecasting: Solar Shield Extension Development of the End-User Forecasting System Requirements

A NASA Goddard Space Flight Center Heliophysics Science Division-led team that includes NOAA Space Weather Prediction Center, the Catholic University of America, Electric Power Research Institute (EPRI), and Electric Research and Management, Inc., recently partnered with the Department of Homeland Security (DHS) Science and Technology Directorate (S&T) to better understand the impact of Geomagnetically Induced Currents (GIC) on the electric power industry. This effort builds on a previous NASA-sponsored Applied Sciences Program for predicting GIC, known as Solar Shield. The focus of the new DHS S&T funded effort is to revise and extend the existing Solar Shield system to enhance its forecasting capability and provide tailored, timely, actionable information for electric utility decision makers. To enhance the forecasting capabilities of the new Solar Shield, a key undertaking is to extend the prediction system coverage across Contiguous United States (CONUS), as the previous version was only applicable to high latitudes. The team also leverages the latest enhancements in space weather modeling capacity residing at Community Coordinated Modeling Center to increase the Technological Readiness Level, or Applications Readiness Level of the system http://www.nasa.gov/sites/default/files/files/ExpandedARLDefinitions4813.pdf.

space weather↗

NASA NTRSDate not supplied

Kamodo – An Adaptable Tool to Obtain and Compare Observations and Modeling Results

What is Kamodo? -Official NASA open-source project written in Python. -Building upon the functionalization of datasets. -It is a CCMC developed and maintained software tool for access, interpolation, and visualization of space weather models and data. -It allows model developers to represent simulation results as mathematical functions which may be manipulated directly by end users. -It handles unit conversion transparency and supports interactive science discovery through jupyter notebooks with minimal coding. -All Kamodo tools are accessible through Python, and all source code is publicly available on the Kamodo NASA GitHub repositories. -Kamodo does not generate model outputs. Users need to acquire the desired model outputs before they can be functionalized by Kamodo.

Kamodo↗

NASA NTRS2023

Tutorial: Models and Tools at the CCMC for Space Weather Research and Education

Community Coordinated Modeling Center (CCMC) is hosting an expanding collection of space weather models covering the entire domain from the solar corona to the Earth’s lower atmosphere. The tutorial will present examples of CCMC models utilization in different research projects and demonstrate how CCMC tools and systems can be utilized in research and education. The presentation will also include highlights of International Space Weather Action Teams Initiatives and discuss opportunities for early career scientists. The presentation will be followed by hands-on demo of CCMC tools and systems.

Maria Kuznetsova↗

NASA NTRS2012

Application of the NASCAP Spacecraft Simulation Tool to Investigate Electrodynamic Tether Current Collection in LEO

Recent interest in using electrodynamic tethers (EDTs) for orbital maneuvering in Low Earth Orbit (LEO) has prompted the development of the Marshall ElectroDynamic Tether Orbit Propagator (MEDTOP) model. The model is comprised of several modules which address various aspects of EDT propulsion, including calculation of state vectors using a standard orbit propagator (e.g., J2), an atmospheric drag model, realistic ionospheric and magnetic field models, space weather effects, and tether librations. The natural electromotive force (EMF) attained during a radially-aligned conductive tether results in electrons flowing down the tether and accumulating on the lower-altitude spacecraft. The energy that drives this EMF is sourced from the orbital energy of the system; thus, EDTs are often proposed as de-orbiting systems. However, when the current is reversed using satellite charged particle sources, then propulsion is possible. One of the most difficult challenges of the modeling effort is to ascertain the equivalent circuit between the spacecraft and the ionospheric plasma. The present study investigates the use of the NASA Charging Analyzer Program (NASCAP) to calculate currents to and from the tethered satellites and the ionospheric plasma. NASCAP is a sophisticated set of computational tools to model the surface charging of three-dimensional (3D) spacecraft surfaces in a time-varying space environment. The model's surface is tessellated into a collection of facets, and NASCAP calculates currents and potentials for each one. Additionally, NASCAP provides for the construction of one or more nested grids to calculate space potential and time-varying electric fields. This provides for the capability to track individual particles orbits, to model charged particle wakes, and to incorporate external charged particle sources. With this study, we have developed a model of calculating currents incident onto an electrodynamic tethered satellite system, and first results are shown here.

Adams, Mitzi↗

NASA NTRSDate not supplied

Modeling and Visualization of Geomagnetic Storms at the CCMC

The Community Coordinated Modeling Center is greatly expanding activities in geospace in recent years, including the addition of new models or outputs (including WACCM-X, SAMI3-TIEGCM, HYPERS, GAMERA test runs and WAM-IPE real time outputs) that expand the range of available views or analysis activities in geospace during the upcoming Solar Maximum and Heliophysics Big Year. We are now routinely adding to a library of geomagnetic storms using anew request interface for the Space Weather Modeling Framework(SWMF). We are placing continuous run model simulation outputs as run series onto the CCMC web site where look at quick-look graphics, perform online visualization and request outputs for any day covered by the results.We demonstrate examples and results of online visualization and analysis tools that are also placed onto the cloud to support Open Science and collaborative research.

Lutz Rastaetter↗

NASA NTRS2011

The SPASE Data Model for Heliophysics Data: Is it Working?

The Space Physics Archive Search and Extract (SPASE) Data Model was developed to provide a metadata standard for describing Heliophysics (Space and Solar Physics) data within that science discipline. The SPASE Data Model has matured over the many years of its creation and is presently represented by Version 2.2.1. Information about SPASE can be obtained from the website group.org. The Data Model defines terms and values as well as the relationships between them in order to describe the data resources in the Heliophysics data environment. This data environment is quite complex, consisting of Virtual Observatories, Resident Archives, Data Providers, Partnering Data Centers, Services, Final Archives, and a Deep Archive. SPASE is the metadata language standard intended to permeate the complexity and provide a common method of obtaining and understanding data. Is it working in this capacity? SPASE has been used to describe a wide range of data. Examples range from ground-based magnetometer data to interplanetary satellite measurements to space weather model results. Has it achieved the goal of making the data easier to find and use? To find data of interest it is necessary that all the data of importance be described using the SPASE Data Model. Within the part of the data community associated with NASA (supported through NASA funding) there are obligations to use SPASE and (0 describe the old and new data using the SPASE XML schema. Although this pan of the community is not near 100% compliance with the mandate, there is good progress being made and the goal should be reachable in the future. Outside of the NASA data community there is still work to be done to convince the international community that SPASE descriptions are w011h the cost of their generation. Some of these groups such as Cluster, HELlO, GAIA, NOAA/NGDe. CSSDP, VSTO, SuperMAG, and IUGONET have agreed to use SPASE. but there are still other groups of importance that need (0 be reached. It is also assumed that the terminology is sufficiently broad and the descriptions are sufficiently complete that researchers needing data of a specific type or from a specific period can find and acquire what they need. A valid SPASE description can be very brief or very thorough depending on the willingness of the author to spend the time necessary to make the description useful. There is evidence that users are finding what they need through the SPASE descriptions, and this standard is a big step forward in Heliophysics data location. Does SPASE make it easier to use the data once they are found,) Thorough descriptions of data using SPASE can describe the data down to the level of individual parameters and exactly how the data are organized and stored. Should the SPASE data descriptions be written in such a way that they can be automatically ingested and understood by software tools'? Heliophysics instruments are becoming morc versatile all the time and the complexity of the data makes it tedious and time consuming to write SPASE descriptions with this level of sophistication even with the improvement of the tools used to generate the descriptions. Is it better to just write human-readable descriptions of the data at the parameter level or to refer to references that provide this information? This is a debate that is presently taking place and software is being developed to test what is possible.

Thieman, James↗

NASA NTRS2023

Improved Space Weather Observations and Modeling for Aviation Radiation

In recent years there has been a growing interest from the aviation community for space weather radiation forecasts tailored to the needs of the aviation industry. In 2019 several space weather centers began issuing advisories for the International Civil Aviation Organization alerting users to enhancements in the radiation environment at aviation flight levels. Due to a lack of routine observations, radiation modeling is required to specify the dose rates experienced by flight crew and passengers. While mature models exist, support for key observational inputs and further modeling advancements are needed. Observational inputs required from the ground-based neutron monitor network must be financially supported for research studies and operations to ensure real-time data is available for forecast operations and actionable end user decision making. An improved understanding of the geomagnetic field is required to reduce dose rate uncertainties in regions close to the open/closed geomagnetic field boundary, important for flights such as those between the continental US and Europe which operate in this region. Airborne radiation measurements, which are crucial for model validation and improvement, are lacking, particularly during solar energetic particle events. New measurement campaigns must be carried out to ensure progress and in situ atmospheric radiation measurements made available for real-time situational awareness. Furthermore, solar energetic particle forecasting must be improved to move aviation radiation nowcasts to forecasts in order to meet customer requirements for longer lead times for planning and mitigation.

space weather↗