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At least 73 records · Page 4
All sourcesNASA NTRSDOE OSTI
DOE OSTI2025

Impact of drought on global food security by 2050

Drought is a major driver of crop production loss, threatening global food security as the population rises toward 9 billion by 2050. Using a process-based crop model within an Earth system model, we assess drought-related impacts on maize, soybean, rice, and wheat production at global and country levels. We then develop a food insecurity index combining drought impacts with socio-economic factors. Our results indicate that by 2050, globally averaged drought losses for combined maize, soybean, rice, and wheat production are <2%, though soybean losses reach 3.6%. Despite these small average changes at the global scale, 62 countries experience maximum production losses over 10%, and 24 countries over 20%. Our index identifies regions at greatest risk, including large parts of South America, Africa, Eastern Europe, and Southeast Asia. These results illustrate the need for drought adaptation to mitigate future drought impacts on crop production.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2020

Genome sequencing of Rigidoporus microporus provides insights on genes important for wood decay, latex tolerance and interspecific fungal interactions

Fungal plant pathogens remain a serious threat to the sustainable agriculture and forestry, despite the extensive efforts undertaken to control their spread. White root rot disease is threatening rubber tree (Hevea brasiliensis) plantations throughout South and Southeast Asia and Western Africa, causing tree mortality and severe yield losses. Here, we report the complete genome sequence of the basidiomycete fungus Rigidoporus microporus, a causative agent of the disease. Our phylogenetic analysis confirmed the position of R. microporus among the members of Hymenochaetales, an understudied group of basidiomycetes. Our analysis further identified pathogen's genes with a predicted role in the decay of plant cell wall polymers, in the utilization of latex components and in interspecific interactions between the pathogen and other fungi. We also detected putative horizontal gene transfer events in the genome of R. microporus. The reported first genome sequence of a tropical rubber tree pathogen R. microporus should contribute to the better understanding of how the fungus is able to facilitate wood decay and nutrient cycling as well as tolerate latex and utilize resinous extractives.

59 BASIC BIOLOGICAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2025

Projected changes in cross-equatorial northerly surges and their hydrological impacts in the near future

Recent decades have witnessed unprecedented extreme precipitation and catastrophic flooding in some of the most populated regions in Southeast Asia during boreal winter. These extreme events are often influenced by the cross-equatorial northerly surge (CENS), characterized by a strengthening of northerly moist monsoon winds south of the equator in the western Maritime Continent. However, the potential future changes in CENS and its hydrological impacts remain underexplored. Here, using an ensemble of high-resolution climate model simulations (CMIP6 HighResMIP), we show that the regional impacts of CENS on the intensity and frequency of extreme precipitation events are projected to significantly increase in the near future (2030–2050), particularly over the adjacent coastal regions of southern Indonesia and northwestern Australia. More specifically, the risk of CENS-related extreme precipitation is projected to increase by up to 39 ± 1.2% relative to the seasonal probability, despite no apparent changes in the CENS characteristics in the near future. Such stronger impact is attributed to the enhanced moistening efficiency and moist static instability due to a more humid and warmer environment, which leads to more intense CENS convection. Our results suggest the need for effective monitoring and disaster managements to respond to the increasing severity of such events in the near future.

Climate sciences↗
DOE OSTI2021

The genome of Shorea leprosula (Dipterocarpaceae) highlights the ecological relevance of drought in aseasonal tropical rainforests

Hyperdiverse tropical rainforests, such as the aseasonal forests in Southeast Asia, are supported by high annual rainfall. Its canopy is dominated by the species-rich tree family of Dipterocarpaceae (Asian dipterocarps), which has both ecological (e.g., supports flora and fauna) and economical (e.g., timber production) importance. Recent ecological studies suggested that rare irregular drought events may be an environmental stress and signal for the tropical trees. We assembled the genome of a widespread but near threatened dipterocarp, Shorea leprosula, and analyzed the transcriptome sequences of ten dipterocarp species representing seven genera. Comparative genomic and molecular dating analyses suggested a whole-genome duplication close to the Cretaceous-Paleogene extinction event followed by the diversification of major dipterocarp lineages (i.e. Dipterocarpoideae). Interestingly, the retained duplicated genes were enriched for genes upregulated by no-irrigation treatment. These findings provide molecular support for the relevance of drought for tropical trees despite the lack of an annual dry season.

59 BASIC BIOLOGICAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2023

Sulfate reduction accelerates groundwater arsenic contamination even in aquifers with abundant iron oxides

Groundwater contamination by geogenic arsenic is a global problem affecting nearly 200 million people. In South and Southeast Asia, a cost-effective mitigation strategy is to use oxidized low-arsenic aquifers rather than reduced high-arsenic aquifers. Aquifers with abundant oxidized iron minerals are presumably safeguarded against immediate arsenic contamination, due to strong sorption of arsenic onto iron minerals. However, preferential pumping of low-arsenic aquifers can destabilize the boundaries between these aquifers, pulling high-arsenic water into low-arsenic aquifers. We investigate this scenario in a hybrid field-column experiment in Bangladesh where naturally high-arsenic groundwater is pumped through sediment cores from a low-arsenic aquifer, and detailed aqueous and solid-phase measurements are used to constrain reactive transport modelling. Here we show that elevated groundwater arsenic concentrations are induced by sulfate reduction and the predicted formation of highly mobile, poorly sorbing thioarsenic species. Furthermore, this process suggests that contamination of currently pristine aquifers with arsenic can occur up to over 1.5 times faster than previously thought, leading to a deterioration of urgently needed water resources.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2024

A bioenergy-focused versus a reforestation-focused mitigation pathway yields disparate carbon storage and climate responses

Limiting global warming to 2 °C requires urgent action on land-based mitigation. This study evaluates the biogeochemical and biogeophysical implications of two alternative land-based mitigation scenarios that aim to achieve the same radiative forcing. One scenario is primarily driven by bioenergy expansion (SSP226Lu-BIOCROP), while the other involves re/afforestation (SSP126Lu-REFOREST). We find that overall, SSP126Lu-REFOREST is a more efficient strategy for removing CO2 from the atmosphere by 2100, resulting in a net carbon sink of 242 ~ 483 PgC with smaller uncertainties compared to SSP226Lu-BIOCROP, which exhibits a wider range of -78 ~ 621 PgC. However, SSP126Lu-REFOREST leads to a relatively warmer planetary climate than SSP226Lu-BIOCROP, and this relative warming can be intensified in certain re/afforested regions where local climates are not favorable for tree growth. Despite the cooling effect on a global scale, SSP226Lu-BIOCROP reshuffles regional warming hotspots, amplifying summer temperatures in vulnerable tropical regions such as Central Africa and Southeast Asia. Our findings highlight the need for strategic land use planning to identify suitable regions for re/afforestation and bioenergy expansion, thereby improving the likelihood of achieving the intended climate mitigation outcomes.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2025

Longitudinal seroprevalence of Crimean-Congo hemorrhagic fever virus in Southern Uganda

Crimean-Congo hemorrhagic fever (CCHF) is a tick-borne disease endemic to many regions of Africa, the Middle East, Southeast Asia and the Balkans. Caused by the CCHF virus (CCHFV), CCHF has been a recognized cause of illness in Uganda since the 1950s and recently, more intensive surveillance suggests CCHFV is widely endemic within the country. Most surveillance has been focused on the Ugandan cattle corridor due to the risk of CCHFV exposure associated with livestock practices. Here we evaluated the seroprevalence of CCHFV in several Southern Ugandan communities outside the cattle corridor combined with longitudinal sample sets to measure the immune response to CCHFV for up to a decade. Interestingly, across three community types, agrarian, trading and fishing, we detected CCHFV seroprevalence in all three but found the highest seroprevalence in fishing communities. We also measured consistent CCHFV-specific antibody responses for up to a decade. Our findings support the conclusion that CCHFV is widely endemic in Uganda and highlight that additional communities may be at risk for CCHFV exposure.

60 APPLIED LIFE SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2021

Heat stress on agricultural workers exacerbates crop impacts of climate change

Abstract The direct impacts of climate change on crop yields and human health are individually well-studied, but the interaction between the two have received little attention. Here we analyze the consequences of global warming for agricultural workers and the crops they cultivate using a global economic model (GTAP) with explicit treatment of the physiological impacts of heat stress on humans’ ability to work. Based on two metrics of heat stress and two labor functions, combined with a meta-analysis of crop yields, we provide an analysis of climate, impacts both on agricultural labor force, as well as on staple crop yields, thereby accounting for the interacting effect of climate change on both land and labor. Here we analyze the two sets of impacts on staple crops, while also expanding the labor impacts to highlight the potential importance on non-staple crops. We find, worldwide, labor and yield impacts within staple grains are equally important at +3 ∘ C warming, relative to the 1986–2005 baseline. Furthermore, the widely overlooked labor impacts are dominant in two of the most vulnerable regions: sub-Saharan Africa and Southeast Asia. In those regions, heat stress with 3 ∘ C global warming could reduce labor capacity in agriculture by 30%–50%, increasing food prices and requiring much higher levels of employment in the farm sector. The global welfare loss at this level of warming could reach $136 billion, with crop prices rising by 5%, relative to baseline.

de Lima, Cicero Z. (ORCID:0000000297005435)↗
DOE OSTI2024

Limits to forests-based mitigation in integrated assessment modelling: global potentials and impacts under constraining factors

Forests-based measures such as afforestation/reforestation (A/R) and reducing deforestation (RDF) are considered promising options to mitigate climate change, yet their mitigation potentials are limited by economic and biophysical factors that are largely uncertain. The range of mitigation potential estimates from integrated assessment models raises concerns about the capacity of land systems to provide realistic, cost-effective and permanent land-based mitigation. We use the Global Change Analysis Model to quantify the economic mitigation potential of forests-based measures by simulating a climate policy including a tax on greenhouse gas emissions from agriculture, forestry, and other land uses. In addition, we assess how constraining unused arable land (UAL) availability, forestland expansion rates, and global bioenergy demand may influence the forests-based mitigation potential by simulating scenarios with alternative combinations of constraints. Results show that the average forests-based mitigation potential in 2020–2050 increases from 738 MtCO 2 .yr -1 through a forestland increase of 86 Mha in the fully constrained scenario to 1394 MtCO 2 .yr -1 through a forestland increase of 146 Mha when all constraints are relaxed. Regional potentials in terms of A/R and RDF differ strongly between scenarios: unconstrained forest expansion rates mostly increase A/R potentials in northern regions (e.g., +120 MtCO 2 .yr -1 in North America); while unconstrained UAL conversion and low bioenergy demand mostly increase RDF potentials in tropical regions (e.g., +76 and +68 MtCO 2 .yr -1 in Southeast Asia, respectively). This study shows that forests-based mitigation is limited by many factors that constrain the rates of land use change across regions. These factors, often overlooked in modelling exercises, should be carefully addressed for understanding the role of forests in global climate mitigation and defining pledges towards the Paris Agreement.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2026

Widespread windthrow in Southeast Asian tropical forests verified by satellite observations

Windthrow, defined as abrupt tree mortality caused by intense winds, is well documented in the Neotropics but remains largely unverified in Asian tropical forests. Using Landsat 8 imagery for the period 2020-2022 and established spectral (shortwave-infrared, near-infrared, and red band composites) and morphological criteria (fan-shaped geometry and sharp boundaries), this study verified the presence of windthrow across Sumatra, Borneo, and New Guinea and produced the first georeferenced inventory of 60 events in the region. Event sizes were right-skewed, with many small gaps and few large (>200 ha) disturbances. Orientations were anisotropic, with concentrations of windthrow events pointing west to northwest-to-north and eastward, both aligning with known pathways of organized convection in the Maritime Continent of Southeast Asia. Detection was conservatively biased low by cloud cover, long revisit intervals, and the exclusion of land-use areas. This study provides a verified baseline that enables reproducible mapping with higher resolution sensors and field observations to quantify windthrow frequency, severity, and ecological significance.

Asia’s tropical forests↗
DOE OSTI2021

Assessing biogeographic survey gaps in bacterial diversity knowledge: A global synthesis of freshwaters

Freshwaters account for 0.8% of Earth's surface area, yet support >10% of known plant and animal species making them disproportionately biodiverse. Modern molecular techniques have begun to reveal microbial diversity, but application of these approaches to address global microbial biogeography is relatively unknown in freshwaters. Our aim was to identify gaps in microbial data coverage along climatic and landscape disturbance gradients and among terrestrial biomes and hydrographic regions for all freshwater ecosystems and three freshwater habitat types: lakes and reservoirs (lentic); streams and rivers (lotic); and wetlands. We reviewed literature on microbial diversity in freshwaters surveyed using 16S ribosomal RNA sequencing which identify microbial taxa. We georeferenced survey locations and used a geographic information system to identify and map gaps in survey coverage using open-source data for climate, landscape disturbance, terrestrial biomes, and freshwater ecoregions. In our study, we compiled 3,425 georeferenced survey locations reported from 963 studies. Streams were surveyed most frequently (60.8% of survey locations), followed by lakes (33.5%) and wetlands (5.6%). Surveys were concentrated in North America, central and western Europe, and Southeast Asia; 35% of freshwater ecoregions were surveyed at least once across freshwater habitat types, whereas 23%, 23%, and 12% were surveyed at least once for lentic, lotic, and wetland habitat types, respectively. The climatic gap analysis indicated coverage is high for temperate regions but lacking in the tropics and Arctic, particularly for wetland ecosystems. Our assessment revealed high climatic coverage of freshwater microbial diversity knowledge, but expansive ecoregional gaps attributable to biased sampling near research institutions in North America, western Europe, and China. Future surveys should target ecoregions in Africa, South America, Central Asia, Australia, and Antarctica. An essential next step will be to curate and disseminate sequencing efforts to facilitate the study of processes driving global diversity patterns.

16S rRNA↗
DOE OSTI2021

Regional trends and drivers of the global methane budget

Abstract The ongoing development of the Global Carbon Project (GCP) global methane (CH 4 ) budget shows a continuation of increasing CH 4 emissions and CH 4 accumulation in the atmosphere during 2000–2017. Here, we decompose the global budget into 19 regions (18 land and 1 oceanic) and five key source sectors to spatially attribute the observed global trends. A comparison of top‐down (TD) (atmospheric and transport model‐based) and bottom‐up (BU) (inventory‐ and process model‐based) CH 4 emission estimates demonstrates robust temporal trends with CH 4 emissions increasing in 16 of the 19 regions. Five regions—China, Southeast Asia, USA, South Asia, and Brazil—account for >40% of the global total emissions (their anthropogenic and natural sources together totaling >270 Tg CH 4 yr −1 in 2008–2017). Two of these regions, China and South Asia, emit predominantly anthropogenic emissions (>75%) and together emit more than 25% of global anthropogenic emissions. China and the Middle East show the largest increases in total emission rates over the 2000 to 2017 period with regional emissions increasing by >20%. In contrast, Europe and Korea and Japan show a steady decline in CH 4 emission rates, with total emissions decreasing by ~10% between 2000 and 2017. Coal mining, waste (predominantly solid waste disposal) and livestock (especially enteric fermentation) are dominant drivers of observed emissions increases while declines appear driven by a combination of waste and fossil emission reductions. As such, together these sectors present the greatest risks of further increasing the atmospheric CH 4 burden and the greatest opportunities for greenhouse gas abatement.

59 BASIC BIOLOGICAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2024

Nutri‐cereal tissue‐specific transcriptome atlas during development: Functional integration of gene expression to identify mineral uptake pathways in little millet ( Panicum sumatrense )

SUMMARY Little millet (Panicum sumatrenseRoth ex Roem. & Schult.) is an essential minor millet of southeast Asia and Africa's temperate and subtropical regions. The plant is stress‐tolerant, has a short life cycle, and has a mineral‐rich nutritional profile associated with unique health benefits. We report the developmental gene expression atlas of little millet (genotype JK‐8) from ten tissues representing different stages of its life cycle, starting from seed germination and vegetative growth to panicle maturation. The developmental transcriptome atlas led to the identification of 342 827 transcripts. The BUSCO analysis and comparison with the transcriptomes of related species confirm that this study presents high‐quality, in‐depth coverage of the little millet transcriptome. In addition, the eFP browser generated here has a user‐friendly interface, allowing interactive visualizations of tissue‐specific gene expression. Using these data, we identified transcripts, the orthologs of which inArabidopsisand rice are involved in nutrient acquisition, transport, and response pathways. The comparative analysis of the expression levels of these transcripts holds great potential for enhancing the mineral content in crops, particularly zinc and iron, to address the issue of “hidden hunger” and to attain nutritional security, making it a valuable asset for translational research.

Plant Sciences↗
DOE OSTI2025

Identifying a next-generation antimalarial trioxolane in a landscape of artemisinin partial resistance

For over two decades, artemisinin-based combination therapy (ACT) has been the standard of care for the treatment of uncomplicated falciparum malaria. However, artemisinin partial resistance (ART-R) is now prevalent in Southeast Asia and has emerged in eastern Africa, threatening ACT efficacy. Artefenomel, a synthetic 1,2,4-trioxolane, exhibits an extended pharmacokinetic exposure profile that predicts for efficacy against ART-R parasites. Unfortunately, the development of artefenomel was halted recently after almost a decade in the clinic. Here, we describe studies of an artefenomel-adjacent chemotype that combines potent in vitro activity against clinical ART-R parasites, an extended pharmacokinetic profile with single-exposure efficacy in a murine malaria model, and enhanced stability in human microsomes and hepatocytes. Overall, our studies reveal a heretofore underexplored trioxolane chemotype with the potential to address ART-R in a next-generation trioxolane development candidate.

Science & Technology - Other Topics↗
DOE OSTI2024

Understanding the Spatiotemporal Variability of Tropical Orographic Rainfall Using Convective Plume Buoyancy

Abstract Mechanical forcing by orography affects precipitating convection across many tropical regions, but controls on the intensity and horizontal extent of the orographic precipitation peak and rain shadow remain poorly understood. A recent theory explains this control of precipitation as arising from modulation of lower-tropospheric temperature and moisture by orographic mechanical forcing, setting the distribution of convective rainfall by controlling parcel buoyancy. Using satellite and reanalysis data, we evaluate this theory by investigating spatiotemporal precipitation variations in six mountainous tropical regions spanning South and Southeast Asia, and the Maritime Continent. We show that a strong relationship holds in these regions between daily precipitation and a measure of convective plume buoyancy. This measure depends on boundary layer thermodynamic properties and lower-free-tropospheric moisture and temperature. Consistent with the theory, temporal variations in lower-free-tropospheric temperature are primarily modulated by orographic mechanical lifting through changes in cross-slope wind speed. However, winds directed along background horizontal moisture gradients also influence lower-tropospheric moisture variations in some regions. The buoyancy measure is also shown to explain many aspects of the spatial patterns of precipitation. Finally, we present a linear model with two horizontal dimensions that combines mountain wave dynamics with a linearized closure exploiting the relationship between precipitation and plume buoyancy. In some regions, this model skillfully captures the spatial structure and intensity of rainfall; it underestimates rainfall in regions where time-mean ascent in large-scale convergence zones shapes lower-tropospheric humidity. Overall, these results provide new understanding of fundamental processes controlling subseasonal and spatial variations in tropical orographic precipitation.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2021

Transforming ESM Physical Parameterization Development Using Machine Learning Trained on Global Cloud-Resolving Models and Process Observations

ESMs robustly predict that 21st century greenhouse warming will slowly increase global mean precipitation, rapidly increase extreme precipitation, and increase subtropical drought. ESMs agree less about precipitation trends and extremes over particular land regions critical to human societies, e. g. in semi-arid regions such as California or the Sahel, or in wetter climates prone to monsoonal rainfall (e. g. southeast Asia) or to tropical cyclones and flooding from mesoscale convective systems (e. g. the southeastern U.S.) Deep convective parameterizations and poor representation of orography and complex vegetated land surfaces contribute to this inter-model spread; clouds, aerosols and sea-surface temperature biases are also key. Reducing regional precipitation projection uncertainty has enormous planning value for water supplies, land use, wildfire, hydropower, flood control, etc. IPCC-class ESMs are making painfully slow progress on this.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2021

Building Blocks of Electric Vehicle Deployment: A Guide for Developing Countries

Countries can use electric transportation to help fulfill numerous goals, including greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions targets, local air quality goals, mobility objectives, energy security, and transportation resiliency. Vehicle electrification is a promising pathway to achieving clean energy transitions in the transport sector at scale. As vehicles electrify, the traditionally siloed electricity and transport sectors increasingly converge to create technical, institutional, and economic opportunities and challenges. To navigate this transition effectively, we propose the following foundational pillars or “building blocks” that undergird effective electric vehicle (EV) deployment. Jurisdictions with experience and mature EV markets offer useful lessons learned that may enable developing countries to leapfrog over common roadblocks. Nonetheless, developing countries face distinct challenges collectively, and individually, from developed countries that require careful consideration. From our work around the world, the U.S. Agency for International Development (USAID) and National Renewable Energy Laboratory (NREL) have witnessed interest growing in EVs for a variety of reasons. Lao People’s Democratic Republic (PDR), for example, looks toward EVs as a way to use their surplus of hydropower to displace expensive oil. Thailand and Pakistan seek economic development opportunities in EV manufacturing. Cities including Mexico City, Surat, India, and Kingston, Jamaica see the potential of bus electrification to improve local air quality and reduce traffic congestion. Many USAID partner countries in Southeast Asia are trying to understand how to reach ambitious EV deployment targets and implement EV and transportation plans. This pursuit is prompting questions about EV supply equipment (EVSE) standards, tariff design, and business models that affirm the importance of the building blocks outlined in this report.

32 ENERGY CONSERVATION, CONSUMPTION, AND UTILIZATI↗
DOE OSTI2023

Envisioning urban environments resilient to vector-borne diseases: a protocol to study dengue in Vietnam

Transmitted primarily by Aedes aegypti (Ae. aegypti) and Aedes albopictus (Ae. albopictus), arboviral diseases pose a major global public health threat. Dengue, chikungunya, and zika are increasingly prevalent in Southeast Asia. Among other arboviruses, dengue and zika are becoming more common in Central and South America. Given human encroachment into previously uninhabited, often deforested areas, to provide new housing in regions of population expansion, conceptualizing built urban environments in a novel way is urgently needed to safeguard against the growing climate change-driven threat of vector-borne diseases. By understanding the spread from a One Health perspective, enhanced control and prevention can be achieved. This is particularly important considering that climate change is likely to significantly impact the persistence of ponded water where mosquitoes breed due to increasing temperature and shifting rainfall patterns with regard to magnitude, duration, frequency, and season. Models can incorporate aquatic mosquito stages and adult spatial dynamics when habitats are heterogeneously available, thereby including dispersal and susceptible-exposed-infected-recovered (SEIR) epidemiology. Coupled with human population distribution (density, locations), atmospheric conditions (air temperature, precipitation), and hydrological conditions (soil moisture distribution, ponding persistence in topographic depressions), modeling has improved predictive ability for infection rates. However, it has not informed interventional approaches from an urban environment perspective which considers the role of ponds/lakes that support green spaces, the density of population that enables rapid spread of disease, and varying micro-habitats for various mosquito stages under climate change. Here, for an example of dengue in Vietnam, a preventive and predictive approach to design resilient urban environments is proposed, which uses data from rapidly expanding metropolitan communities to learn continually. This protocol deploys computational approaches including simulation and machine learning/artificial intelligence, underpinned by surveillance and medical data for validation and adaptive learning. Its application may best inform urban planning in low-middle income countries in tropical zones where arboviral pathogens are prevalent.

60 APPLIED LIFE SCIENCES↗