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International Monitoring System Correlation Detection at the North Korean Nuclear Test Site at Punggye-ri with Insights from the Source Physics Experiment

Seismic waveform correlation offers the prospect of greatly reducing event detection thresholds when compared with more conventional processing methods. Correlation is applicable for seismic events that in some sense repeat, that is they have very similar waveforms. A number of recent studies have shown that correlated seismic signals may form a significant fraction of seismicity at regional distances. For the particular case of multiple nuclear explosions at the same test site, regional distance correlation also allows very precise relative location measurements and could offer the potential to lower thresholds when multiple events exist. Using the Comprehensive Nuclear-Test-Ban Treaty (CTBT) International Monitoring System (IMS) seismic array at Matsushiro, Japan (MJAR), Gibbons and Ringdal (2012) were able to create a multichannel correlation detector with a very low false alarm rate and a threshold below magnitude 3.0. They did this using the 2006 or 2009 Democratic People’s Republic of Korea (DPRK) nuclear explosion as a template to search through a data stream from the same station to find a match via waveform correlation. In this paper, we extend the work of Gibbons and Ringdal (2012) and measure the correlation detection threshold at several other IMS arrays. We use this to address three main points. First, we show the IMS array station at Mina, Nevada (NVAR), which is closest to the Nevada National Security Site (NNSS), is able to detect a chemical explosion that is well under 1 ton with the right template. Second, we examine the two IMS arrays closest to the North Korean (DPRK) test site (at Ussuriysk, Russian Federation [USRK] and Wonju, Republic of Korea [KSRS]) to show that similarly low thresholds are possible when the right templates exist. We also extend the work of Schaff et al. (2012) and measure the correlation detection threshold at the nearest Global Seismic Network (GSN) three-component station (MDJ) at Mudanjiang, Heilongjiang Province, China, from the New China Digital Seismograph Network (IC). To conclude, we use these results to explore the recent claim by Zhang and Wen (2015) that the DPRK conducted “…a low-yield nuclear test…” on 12 May 2010.

22 GENERAL STUDIES OF NUCLEAR REACTORS↗

Material Property Determinations for Alluvium in Support of Source Physics Experiment

Two blocks of alluvium were extensively tested at the Sandia National Laboratories Geomechanics laboratory. The alluvium blocks are intended to serve as surrogate material for mechanical property determinations to support the SPE DAG experimental series. From constant mean stress triaxial testing, strength failure envelopes were parameterized and are presented for each block. Modulus and stress relationships are given including bulk modulus versus mean stress, shear modulus versus shear stress, Young's modulus versus axial stress and Poisson's ratio versus axial stress. In addition, P-&S-wave velocities, and porosity, determined using helium porosimetry, were obtained on each block. Generally, both Young's modulus and Poisson's ratio increase with increasing axial stress, bulk modulus increases with increasing pressure, and increases more dramatically upon pore crush, shear modulus decreases with increasing shear stress and then appears to plateau. The Unconfined Compressive Strength for the BM is in the range of 0.5-0.6, and for SM in the range of 2.0-2.6 MPa. The confined compressive strength increases with increasing confining pressure, and the BM alluvium is significantly weaker compared to SM alluvium for mean stress levels above 8 MPa.

36 MATERIALS SCIENCE↗

The Source Physics Experiment and Distributed Acoustic Sensing

1. Purpose: This will be presented at the 2025 SSA meeting. 2. Peer Review: Internal Peer Review not required. Talk is informational displaying published findings and datasets. 3. HQ review: This is being sent to HQ for review.

Porritt, Robert William [Sandia National Laborator↗