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At least 73 records · Page 4

An economic and technical feasibility analysis of a dual-source heat pump using both the air and the ground

The study investigates the economic and technical performance of a novel dual-source heat pump (DSHP) compared with that of air-source heat pumps (ASHPs) and ground-source heat pumps (GSHPs). The DSHP can use both ambient air and the ground as a heat source or heat sink. It uses ambient air when its temperature is favorable for efficient heat pump operation. When the ambient temperature is too hot or cold, the ground source is used to retain high-efficiency heat pump operation. Since the DSHP can alternately use either the ground heat exchanger (GHE) or ambient air to meet the thermal load, the required size of GHE can be smaller than those of GSHPs. This study models the DSHP using a whole building energy simulation tool (EnergyPlus) coupled with a Python plug-in and Heat Pump Design Model (HPDM) to simulate its heating and cooling performance for a typical single-family home in 15 US climate zones. The required GHE size of the DSHP system is determined through simulations and compared with that of GSHPs. DSHP deployment can reduce electricity use compared to ASHPs, especially in cold climates where it shows a reduction of around 50%. When compared to GSHPs, DSHPs use 20%–40% more electricity in warm climates but consume around the same amount in moderate and colder climates. Since the DSHP can use air source when the ambient temperature is mild, the GHE size needed for the DSHP is about 40% less than that needed for GSHPs in hot climates and about 25% less in cold climates. In conclusion, the life cycle cost analysis shows that the DSHP is economically more feasible than ASHPs in colder regions and economically more feasible than GSHPs in hot and cold regions.

Dual-source heat pumps↗

Simulating a solar parabolic trough collector plant used for industrial process heat using an optimized operating scheme that utilizes flexible heat integration

This study focuses on the modeling and simulation of a novel design and operation of a solar industrial process heat (SIPH) plant that uses a parabolic trough collector system for generating process heat. The SIPH plant incorporates flexible heat integration (FHI) by having two options for heat sinks as well as a flexible collection temperature for the heat transfer fluid. Leveraging the degrees of freedom created by FHI allows an optimized operating scheme to be created which maximizes the solar heat delivered to the industrial processes. Yearly results for a 27 MW-t plant located in Salt Lake City, UT are simulated for a base case and a case utilizing optimized FHI. For the main process temperature case presented, FHI increases the total solar share by 13.0% and reduces the levelized cost of heat of the SIPH plant by 10.4% relative to the base case. Furthermore, three case study days are presented which highlight how FHI maximizes solar share, specifically during mornings, afternoons, and days with intermittent solar conditions. An environmental analysis is also performed showing that the SIPH plant can reduce harmful emissions by 15.4% for the base case and 17.4% for the FHI case compared to a plant that only utilizes a natural gas furnace for process heat. Overall, the work thoroughly explores an effective operating scheme for a SIPH plant, helping to make it more economical and environmentally beneficial.

14 SOLAR ENERGY↗

Cluster-dynamics-based parameterization for sulfuric acid–dimethylamine nucleation: comparison and selection through box and three-dimensional modeling

Clustering of gaseous sulfuric acid (SA) enhanced by dimethylamine (DMA) is a major mechanism for new particle formation (NPF) in polluted atmospheres. However, uncertainty remains regarding the SA–DMA nucleation parameterization that reasonably represents cluster dynamics and is applicable across various atmospheric conditions. This uncertainty hinders accurate three-dimensional (3-D) modeling of NPF and the subsequent assessment of its environmental and climatic impacts. Here we extensively compare different cluster-dynamics-based parameterizations for SA–DMA nucleation and identify the most reliable one through a combination of box model simulations, 3-D modeling, and in situ observations. Results show that the parameterization derived from Atmospheric Cluster Dynamic Code (ACDC) simulations, incorporating the latest theoretical insights (DLPNO-CCSD(T)/aug-cc-pVTZ//ωB97X-D/6-311++G(3df,3pd) level of theory) and adequate representation of cluster dynamics, exhibits dependable performance in 3-D NPF simulation for both winter and summer conditions in Beijing and shows promise for application in diverse atmospheric conditions. Another ACDC-derived parameterization, replacing the level of theory with RI-CC2/aug-cc-pV(T+d)Z//M06-2X/6–311++G(3df,3pd), also performs well in NPF modeling at relatively low temperatures around 280 K but exhibits limitations at higher temperatures due to inappropriate representation of SA–DMA cluster thermodynamics. Additionally, a previously reported parameterization incorporating simplifications is applicable for simulating NPF in polluted atmospheres but tends to overestimate particle formation rates under conditions of elevated temperature (>∼300 K) and low-condensation sink (<∼3×10 -3 s −1 ). Our findings highlight the applicability of the new ACDC-derived parameterization, which couples the latest SA–DMA nucleation theory and holistic cluster dynamics, in 3-D NPF modeling. The ACDC-derived parameterization framework provides a valuable reference for developing parameterizations for other nucleation systems.

Shen, Jiewen↗

Processing of phase change materials by fused deposition modeling: Toward efficient thermal energy storage designs

We report that recently, several efforts have emerged that employ additive manufacturing techniques to integrate phase change material (PCM) thermal energy storage into geometrically complex designs for advanced thermal management. In this work, we contribute to this emerging research by reporting on the production of a composite nylon-based filament for fused deposition modeling incorporating encapsulated PCMs for 3D printing heat sink geometries. Microencapsulated PCM (MEPCM) with a 6 degrees C transition temperature was selected as the material for thermal energy storage. This transition temperature was selected due to its suitability to provide thermal energy storage to target air-conditioning applications in buildings. In an attempt to improve the thermal conductivity of the composite, fine boron nitride fillers were added, although the effect on improvement was found to be negligible in the overall composite mixture. The nylon-MEPCM ratio in the filaments was optimized, and filaments containing up to 40 wt% MEPCM were successfully synthesized, which were found optimal for 3D printing complex heat sink and other geometries. Thermal and mechanical properties of the filaments were characterized, including latent heat of fusion, thermal conductivity, phase change temperature, tensile strength, and more. Thermal infrared imaging of heat sink geometries printed using the MEPCM filaments undergoing thermal discharging was also conducted. This work presents the most promising result to date in the open literature for a 3D-printed PCM composite in the combination of size, energy density, and geometric complexity of printed parts.

25 ENERGY STORAGE↗

Earlier snowmelt increases the strength of the carbon sink in montane meadows unequally across the growing season

1. Warming temperatures are changing winters, leading to earlier snowmelt. This shift can lead to an earlier and potentially longer growing season, which in turn may affect various plant-mediated ecosystem functions. Despite its relevance in the carbon cycle, we still know little about how earlier snowmelt impacts the carbon balance in ecosystems over the growing season, for example, does it only shift phenology, or does it affect the overall carbon uptake? Most studies rely on interannual variability in snowmelt timing, making it difficult to isolate snowmelt effects from other confounding variables, for example, temperature and moisture anomalies. To address this uncertainty, we investigated how experimentally advancing snowmelt affects the carbon cycling of montane meadows across the growing season. 2. We experimentally advanced the snowmelt date in a montane meadow by approximately 12 days and collected data every 2 weeks throughout the growing season, including net ecosystem exchange (NEE), gross primary productivity (GPP), ecosystem respiration (ER), plant composition, and shrub, graminoid, and forb biomass. 3. Early in the growing season, GPP was higher in the early snowmelt plots, though this effect decreased as the growing season progressed. Our modelling of cumulative NEE showed a possible 22% increase in the carbon sink strength with earlier snowmelt. The effect was strongest in the early spring and diminished as the growing season progressed, with control plots being a greater carbon sink in the later season. Graminoid biomass was 47% higher in plots with earlier snowmelt, but there was no change in total biomass. 4. Synthesis. As winters warm and snowmelt occurs earlier, plant productivity will shift earlier in the growing season, and montane meadows may become a stronger carbon sink. However, this effect will differ seasonally, altering the carbon balance in montane meadows.

carbon cycle↗

Semi-Annual Report for Horizontal Compact High Temperature Gas Reactor (HC-HTGR) Development during Performance Period April 2023 – September 2023

Horizontal Compact High Temperature Gas Reactor (HC-HTGR) is being designed by a multi-disciplinary team of nuclear, mechanical, and structural engineers under the support of a DOE-NE Advanced Reactor Demonstration Program’s Advanced Reactor Concepts-20 (ARC-20) award. The objective of this ARC-20 project is to deliver a conceptual design for the proposed HC-HTGR in 3 years and support its commercialization as a safe, low-cost HTGR. Argonne National Laboratory (Argonne) is responsible for the design and analysis of the reactor cavity cooling system (RCCS) as a safety system for passive decay heat removal of the reactor concept. Additionally, Argonne is providing analysis of the primary coolant system to ensure temperatures within the core remain below safety margins during steady-state and potential accident scenarios. This fourth semi-annual report summarized the progress made at Argonne on the two tasks during the second half of FY23. As a part of the RCCS design task, recent efforts have been made to complete a conceptual design of the RCCS for the HC-HTGR, including the design update of the water panel and system configuration favorable in point of view of fabrication and system operation. Design calculations were conducted under various heat load conditions to validate the system design. Transient simulations using RELAP5-3D were conducted to investigate system dynamics under transients of interest and to evaluate the system performance in the design condition. The results demonstrated the overall system feasibility that the RCCS design maintains structures temperatures lower than maximum allowable temperature with sufficient system inventory without any active heat sink. In the primary system thermal hydraulics task, the preliminary analysis was performed for a long term pressurized conduction cooldown (PCC) transient. This analysis used a combination of a fully resolved and coarse homogenized mesh to predict the temperature distribution for the steady-state initial condition and the PCC transient. The steady-state initial condition was determined using a fully resolved full core model with 3D solid to 1D fluid coupling. The fully resolved mesh was also used to model the first 20 seconds of the PCC. The temperature difference between fuel pins and the graphite matrix becomes minimal and the dominant heat transfer shifts to a larger scale radially towards the RCCS. After 20 seconds, a homogenized coarse mesh is used, greatly reducing the computational costs of the model. These results demonstrate that the core is designed to passively remove enough decay heat in a protected loss of primary coolant flow to prevent an unsafe rise of core temperatures.

21 SPECIFIC NUCLEAR REACTORS AND ASSOCIATED PLANTS↗

Estimation of Fission Product Transport Parameters for Cesium in the AGR-3/4 TRISO Fuel Experiment

A one-dimensional (1D) finite-element model of fission product transport in the AGR-3/4 experiment has been developed using the Multiphysics Object Oriented Simulation Environment (MOOSE) framework and implemented in the fuel performance code, BISON. The model resolves capsule-specific geometries, materials, and temperature histories and simulates radial migration of fission products from the fuel compact through the inner ring, outer ring, and into the sink ring. Model parameters governing diffusion and sorption were estimated for key fission products – cesium (Cs), and europium (Eu) – by simultaneously fitting modeled isotopic concentration profiles and total ring inventories to a post-irradiation experimental measurement. These data include gamma scanning, liquid scintillation for Sr-90, radial deconsolidation leach-burn-leach analysis, tomographic reconstructions, and destructive physical sampling. A mortar-based interfacial sorption framework was implemented to enforce physically consistent mass transfer and flux conservation across gas gaps. Two classes of parameter sets were derived: a least-squares best-fit, and a safety-oriented conservative-fit, what applies strong penalties for underprediction of sink inventories. Across all twelve capsules, the model successfully reproduces the dominant radial transport trends for Cs, Sr, with decreasing concentrations from the compact outward through successive rings. Cs behavior is captured most consistently, while strontium predictions reveal systematic trade-offs between compact accuracy and conservative sink-ring bounding. The results demonstrate that sink ring weighted calibration provides conservative, safety relevant bounds on low temperature fission product transport, but at the cost of underpredicting compact inventories for Sr isotopes. These discrepancies highlight the need for additional physics, including fast-slow diffusion model, incorporating trapping mechanism in the transport behavior. Overall, this work establishes a robust, capsule-specific modeling framework for AGR-3/4 fission product transport and provides a defensible basis for parameter selection in source-term and fuel performance analyses for high temperature gas-cooled reactors.

11 - NUCLEAR FUEL CYCLE AND FUEL MATERIALS↗

Seasonal stabilization effects slowed the greening of the Northern Hemisphere over the last two decades

Rising atmospheric CO₂ and warming spring temperatures increase vegetation growth and the terrestrial carbon sink. However, drought, heat stress, phenology, and resource limitations may stabilize or limit theses projected increases. We investigate the balance between these amplifying and stabilizing ecological factors by asking whether enhanced early-season growth leads to continued late-season growth. Using the Moderate Resolution Imaging Spectroradiometer (MODIS) leaf area index (LAI) dataset, we identify three seasonal growth patterns based on early- and peak-season positive LAI anomalies: (1) amplification, where late-season LAI anomalies exceed earlier ones; (2) weak stabilization, where late-season anomalies remain similar or slightly lower; and (3) strong stabilization, where late-season anomalies become negative. Weak and strong stabilization events dominate across 67% and 26% of Northern Hemisphere ecosystems above 30°N, respectively. The absence of any trend in amplifying or stabilizing events suggests stabilizing factors seasonally offset CO₂ and temperature-induced spring greening. Terrestrial biosphere models underestimate strong stabilization and overestimate amplification events. This inconsistency arises from the models’ underestimation late-season LAI sensitivity to precipitation in water-limited regions; overlook negative legacy effects of early enhanced LAI on late-season soil moisture via evapotranspiration losses in energy-limited regions. Our findings suggest water/heat stress and resource limitations limit greening and the land carbon sink.

Zhang, Wen↗

A liquid stratification model to predict failure in thermally damaged EBW detonators

In previous work, commercially available downward facing exploding bridgewire detonators (EBWs) were exposed to elevated temperatures. These detonators were then initiated using a firing set which discharged a high amplitude short duration electrical pulse into a thin gold bridgewire. Responses of the detonators were measured using photonic doppler velocimetry (PDV) and high-speed photography. A time delay of 4 μs between EBW initiation and first movement of an output flyer separated operable detonators from inoperable detonators or duds. Here, we propose a simple method to determine detonator operability from the calculated state of the detonator at the time the firing set is initiated. The failure criterion is based on the gap distance between the exploding bridgewire (EBW) and the adjacent initiating explosive within the detonator which is low-density pentaerythritol tetranitrate (PETN) that melts between 413-415 K (140-142 ºC). The gap forms as PETN melts and flows to the bottom of the input pellet. Melting of PETN is modeled thermodynamically as an energy sink using a normal distribution spread over a temperature range between the onset temperature of 413 K and the ending temperature of 415 K. The extent of the melt is determined from the average temperature of the PETN. The PETN liquid is assumed to occupy the interstitial gas volume in the lower part of the input pellet. The vacated volume from the relocated liquid forms the gap between the EBW and the PETN. The remaining sandwiched layer consists of solid PETN particles and gas filling interstitial volume. We predict that a threshold gap between 17-27 μm separates properly functioning detonators from duds.

45 MILITARY TECHNOLOGY, WEAPONRY, AND NATIONAL DEF↗

Biome-scale temperature sensitivity of ecosystem respiration revealed by atmospheric CO2 observations

Abstract The temperature sensitivity of ecosystem respiration regulates how the terrestrial carbon sink responds to a warming climate but has been difficult to constrain observationally beyond the plot scale. Here we use observations of atmospheric CO 2 concentrations from a network of towers together with carbon flux estimates from state-of-the-art terrestrial biosphere models to characterize the temperature sensitivity of ecosystem respiration, as represented by the Arrhenius activation energy, over various North American biomes. We infer activation energies of 0.43 eV for North America and 0.38 eV to 0.53 eV for major biomes therein, which are substantially below those reported for plot-scale studies (approximately 0.65 eV). This discrepancy suggests that sparse plot-scale observations do not capture the spatial-scale dependence and biome specificity of the temperature sensitivity. We further show that adjusting the apparent temperature sensitivity in model estimates markedly improves their ability to represent observed atmospheric CO 2 variability. This study provides observationally constrained estimates of the temperature sensitivity of ecosystem respiration directly at the biome scale and reveals that temperature sensitivities at this scale are lower than those based on earlier plot-scale studies. These findings call for additional work to assess the resilience of large-scale carbon sinks to warming.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

No ball milling needed: Alternative ODS steel manufacturing with gas atomization reaction synthesis (GARS) and friction-based processing

Oxide dispersion strengthened (ODS) steels are promising structural materials for future fusion reactors. The high-density (~10 23 /m 3 ) of highly stable Y-(Ti)-O nano-oxides provide high sink strength for radiation resistance and high-temperature (> 650 °C) creep strength. Concomitantly, helium management is enabled by trapping high density (~10 23 /m 3 ) of small (< 3 nm) helium bubbles in the vicinity of nano-oxides. However, conventional route of making ODS steels involves prolonged ball milling, canning, degassing, and laborious thermo-mechanical processing (TMP). Such route, especially the batch-by-batch ball milling step, faces persistent challenge with scalability and high costs. Gas atomization reaction synthesis (GARS) method has demonstrated the potential of making precursor ODS steel powders without ball milling, but the nano-oxide density was around 10 21 /m 3 in the final consolidated form by conventional TMP. Taking advantage of GARS precursor powder, we use friction-based processing, including friction consolidation and extrusion, to manufacture ODS steel with further improved nano-oxide characteristics. Here, preliminary results showed that Y/Ti/O species were intimately mixed and rapidly reacted to form nano-oxides with a number density of ~10 22 /m 3 .

36 MATERIALS SCIENCE↗

Microstructure and mechanical properties of high Mn-containing ferritic-martensitic alloys exposed to cyclical thermal treatment

Substantial residual tensile stress tends to accumulate in currently available high-Cr ferritic martensitic steels that are subjected to cyclical heat treatment, which leads to premature brittle fracture. By tailoring the alloy composition, this thermal cycling can be exploited to induce a high number density of nanoprecipitates and phase transformations countering residual tensile stresses. In this work, three new variants of ferritic-martensitic steels have been designed with computational thermodynamics to meet the goals of mitigating residual tensile stresses by lowering martensite start temperatures and of enhancing mechanical strength and irradiation sink strength by increasing the number density of nanoprecipitates. Furthermore, ctenast materials were subjected to cyclical heat treatment. The thermally cycled samples were evaluated with mechanical testing and microstructural analysis to identify the optimal composition in which figures of merit include low residual stress and a high density of nanoscale MX (M = metal, X = C/N) precipitates, leading to high yield strength with reasonable ductility. The noticeably higher density of nanoprecipitates in the optimal alloy favor its higher yield strength, which is supported by the microstructure-derived yield strength calculation and precipitation kinetics simulation.

36 MATERIALS SCIENCE↗

Shrub Expansion Can Counteract Carbon Losses From Warming Tundra

Arctic warming is causing substantial compositional, structural, and functional changes in tundra vegetation including shrub and tree-line expansion and densification. However, predicting the carbon trajectories of the changing Arctic is challenging due to interacting feedbacks between vegetation composition and structure, and surface characteristics. We conduct a sensitivity analysis of the current-date to 2100 projected surface energy fluxes, soil carbon pools, and CO 2 fluxes to different shrub expansion rates under future emission scenarios (intermediate—RCP4.5, and high—RCP8.5) using the Arctic-focused configuration of E3SM Land Model (ELM). We focus on Trail Valley Creek (TVC), an upland tundra site in the western Canadian Arctic, which is experiencing shrub densification and expansion. We find that shrub expansion did not significantly alter the modeled surface energy and water budgets. However, the carbon balance was sensitive to shrub expansion, which drove higher rates of carbon sequestration as a consequence of higher shrubification rates. Thus, at low shrub expansion rates, the site would become a carbon source, especially under RCP8.5, due to higher temperatures, which deepen the active layer and enhance soil respiration. At higher shrub expansion rates, TVC would become a net CO 2 sink under both Representative Concentration Pathway scenarios due to higher shrub productivity outweighing temperature-driven respiration increase. Our simulations highlight the effect of shrub expansion on Arctic ecosystem carbon fluxes and stocks. We predict that at TVC, shrubification rate would interact with climate change intensity to determine whether the site would become a carbon sink or source under projected future climate.

Yazbeck, Theresia [The Ohio State Univ., Columbus,↗

Evaluation of ceria as a surrogate material for UO 2 in experiments on fuel cracking driven by resistive heating

A variety of normal operation and accident scenarios can generate thermal stresses large enough to cause cracking in light-water reactor (LWR) fuel pellets. Cracking of fuel pellets can lead to reduced heat removal, larger centerline temperatures, and localized stress in cladding all of which impact fuel performance. Furthermore, pellet cracking also contributes to a temperature reduction in the pellet since the pellet fragments tend to move towards the heat sink (cladding), and the heat flow remains predominantly radial despite the presence of cracks. It is important to understand the temperature profile on the pellet before and after cracking to improve cracking models in fuel performance codes However, in-reactor observation and measurement of cracking is very challenging owing to the harsh environment and design of fuel rods. Recently, an experimental pellet cracking test stand was developed for separate effects testing of normal operations and accident temperature conditions, using thermal imaging to capture the pellet surface temperature for evaluation of thermal stresses and optical imaging to capture the evolution of cracking in real time. Cracking experiments were initially performed using ceria (CeO 2 ) as a surrogate fuel material, which is useful for developing and demonstrating the experimental approaches but is also valuable in its own right for cracking model development and validation. A combination of induction and resistance heating was used for volumetric heat generation in the pellet creating a thermal gradient. The material properties of CeO 2 and UO 2 are reviewed and compared for use in model development. Simulations of the experiment were performed to evaluate the behavior of the surrogate (CeO 2 ) fuel in BISON. The measured temperature profiles from BISON models match reasonably well with the observed experiments for the ceria pellets before cracking. The findings from this work will help improve confidence in fracture models used for fuel pellets under similar in-reactor conditions.

11 NUCLEAR FUEL CYCLE AND FUEL MATERIALS↗

Reductive biomining of pyrite by methanogens

Pyrite (FeS 2 ) is the most abundant iron sulfide mineral in Earth’s crust. Until recently, FeS 2 has been considered a sink for iron (Fe) and sulfur (S) at low temperature in the absence of oxygen or oxidative weathering, making these elements unavailable to biology. However, anaerobic methanogens can transfer electrons extracellularly to reduce FeS 2 via direct contact with the mineral. Reduction of FeS 2 occurs through a multistep process that generates aqueous sulfide (HS – ) and FeS 2 -associated pyrrhotite (Fe 1-x S). Subsequent dissolution of Fe 1-x S provides Fe(II) (aq) , but not HS – , that rapidly complexes with HS – (aq) generated from FeS 2 reduction to form soluble iron sulfur clusters [nFeS (aq) ]. Cells assimilate nFeS (aq) to meet Fe/S nutritional demands by mobilizing and hyperaccumulating Fe and S from FeS 2 . As such, reductive dissolution of FeS 2 by methanogens has important implications for element cycling in anoxic habitats, both today and in the geologic past.

37 INORGANIC, ORGANIC, PHYSICAL, AND ANALYTICAL CH↗

Liquid Air Combined Cycle TM for Power and Storage

Liquid Air Combined Cycle (LACC) is a hybrid liquid air energy storage (LAES) system combining energy storage with a combustion turbine to enable large-scale, long-duration energy storage (LDES) while reducing fuel intensity compared to the current state-of-the-art. The LACC technical approach employs proven equipment (cryogenic refrigeration, storage, tanks, pumps, gas turbines, exhaust heat recovery equipment, and turbines) to limit technical risk to a novel organic Rankine cycle (ORC), which was evaluated during this project and found to be feasible. Moreover, LACC storage is safe and relatively compact, to facilitate siting close to loads and within metropolitan regions. The air storage medium is freely available and eliminates supply chain constraints. LACC uses cryogenic air as a storage medium and a gas turbine as the source of heat to drive the discharge process. LACC is distinguished from other LAES technologies by several factors. The charge and discharge processes are decoupled so that cryogenic liquid air is the only storage medium. Other systems also store the higher temperature thermal energy from the liquefaction process in an additional medium. Subsequently, LACC focuses on maximization of the discharge energy and power. LACC also permits the use of commercially available cryogenic refrigeration and storage technologies to increase competition. This project identified product requirements to support market entry and commercialization of the LACC in modular units of approximately 117 MW, each drawing liquid air from customary cryogenic storage tanks capable of storing 75 GWh of dispatchable energy, more than pumped storage hydro or compressed air energy storage technologies. An economic analysis identified the specific liquid air consumption (quantity of liquid air per unit of discharge energy) as a critical parameter. Minimizing the air consumption reduces the specific capital cost ($\$ $/kW) for charging and discharging equipment by reducing the size of piping and turbomachinery. Likewise, the specific cost of energy capacity ($\$ $/kWh) is reduced by increasing the energy deliverable from a given size tank. The cycle was analyzed to identify the optimal equipment selection and operating conditions, which in turn were combined with quotes and cost estimates to calculate the cost of energy from an LACC system. A substantial effort was focused on the ORC, which draws low-temperature heat from the gas turbine exhaust and condenses at low temperature using the cryogenic liquid air as a heat sink. Alternative turbomachinery arrangements were evaluated for feasibility and cost. A technology maturation plan lays out a low-risk approach to development of the novel ORC components and demonstration of LACC technology at pilot scale.

25 ENERGY STORAGE↗

Multi-century dynamics of the climate and carbon cycle under both high and net negative emissions scenarios

Abstract. Future climate projections from Earth system models (ESMs) typically focus on the timescale of this century. We use a set of five ESMs and one Earth system model of intermediate complexity (EMIC) to explore the dynamics of the Earth's climate and carbon cycles under contrasting emissions trajectories beyond this century to the year 2300. The trajectories include a very-high-emissions, unmitigated fossil-fuel-driven scenario, as well as a mitigation scenario that diverges from the first scenario after 2040 and features an “overshoot”, followed by a decrease in atmospheric CO2 concentrations by means of large net negative CO2 emissions. In both scenarios and for all models considered here, the terrestrial system switches from being a net sink to either a neutral state or a net source of carbon, though for different reasons and centered in different geographic regions, depending on both the model and the scenario. The ocean carbon system remains a sink, albeit weakened by carbon cycle feedbacks, in all models under the high-emissions scenario and switches from sink to source in the overshoot scenario. The global mean temperature anomaly is generally proportional to cumulative carbon emissions, with a deviation from proportionality in the overshoot scenario that is governed by the zero emissions commitment. Additionally, 23rd century warming continues after the cessation of carbon emissions in several models in the high-emissions scenario and in one model in the overshoot scenario. While ocean carbon cycle responses qualitatively agree in both globally integrated and zonal mean dynamics in both scenarios, the land models qualitatively disagree in zonal mean dynamics, in the relative roles of vegetation and soil in driving C fluxes, in the response of the sink to CO2, and in the timing of the sink–source transition, particularly in the high-emissions scenario. The lack of agreement among land models on the mechanisms and geographic patterns of carbon cycle feedbacks, alongside the potential for lagged physical climate dynamics to cause warming long after CO2 concentrations have stabilized, points to the possibility of surprises in the climate system beyond the 21st century time horizon, even under relatively mitigated global warming scenarios, which should be taken into consideration when setting global climate policy.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

Liquid-Cooled Heat Sink Optimization for Thermal Imbalance Mitigation in Wide-Bandgap Power Modules

Power semiconductor die placement on substrates used in high-power modules is generally optimized to minimize electrical parasitic (e.g., stray inductance, common-mode capacitance), taking into account the minimum spacing between semiconductor dies for thermal decoupling. The layout assumes sufficient heat spreading and transfer from dies to the cooling structure. Insulated metal substrate-based power module designs may lead to asymmetrical thermal resistance across the dies, which may cause significant temperature differences among the devices. Such unintentional thermal asymmetries can lead to oversizing the cooling system design or underusing the semiconductor power processing capability. This article proposes a thermal imbalance mitigation method that uses evolutionary optimized liquid-cooled heat sinks to improve the thermal loading among devices.

42 ENGINEERING↗