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Search indexed NASA NTRS and DOE OSTI research on propulsion, heat transfer, battery materials and energy systems. Follow report and document links to the original sources.

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At least 73 records · Page 4
All sourcesNASA NTRSDOE OSTI
DOE OSTI2023

Simulation-based assessment of ASHRAE Guideline 36, considering energy performance, indoor air quality, and control stability

This study assesses American Society of Heating, Refrigerating and Air-Conditioning Engineers Guideline 36 (G36) with a typical medium office building. Specifically, this study employed a Modelica model of a variable air volume (VAV) system that serves this building, which includes components for representing indoor virus transmission and filtration. It then implemented the G36 control sequences for both water-side and air-side equipment in Python. After that, this study conducted the assessment by co-simulating G36 and the Modelica model using the Building Operations Testing Framework. Unlike existing works, this work has three unique features: (1) It considers the interactions between control sequences for water-side and air-side equipment of the studied VAV system. (2) It assesses the performance of G36 from the perspective of IAQ. (3) It examines the short-term behaviors of the studied building under G36 to understand the control stability. This assessment confirms significant energy savings from G36, largely because of the interaction between supply air temperature and hot water controls. It also reveals a trade-off between the ability to slow the spread of virus and the energy performance via demand controlled ventilation. Lastly, it emphasizes the necessity of tuning local feedback control when implementing G36.

32 ENERGY CONSERVATION, CONSUMPTION, AND UTILIZATI↗
DOE OSTI2025

Myna: Connecting powder bed fusion build data to simulation tools for digital twin applications

Additive manufacturing (AM), as a digital process, can generate a detailed digital thread linking a part’s design and manufacturing to its operational performance. As AM systems advance, an increasing amount of process data is stored in manufacturing databases. In principle, this data can be utilized by simulation-based digital twin approaches, such as real-time process control and asynchronous post-processing guidance. However, few tools currently exist for systematically integrating digital thread data with computational tools. Here, in this study, we propose a software package, called Myna, for connecting data from powder bed fusion processes to simulation tools. The utility of such a platform is demonstrated using build data from the Oak Ridge National Laboratory Manufacturing Demonstration Facility “Peregrine v2023-10” public dataset to automatically configure and run 54 semi-analytical 3DThesis melt pool simulations, 78 numerical Additive FOAM melt pool simulations, and 3 ExaCA microstructure simulations. The simulated, spatially registered microstructures are then compared directly with electron backscatter diffraction characterization of the corresponding as-built part locations. The resulting simulated microstructure showed variation as a function of process parameters, particularly stripe width; however, the experimental data had little variation between the microstructure texture and grain size resulting from different processing conditions. Analysis of the discrepancies suggest that it is possible a two-phase ferritic-austenitic solidification model is needed to accurately predict grain size and texture for certain stainless steel 316L feedstock compositions under powder bed fusion conditions, providing direction for future research. As illustrated here, due to the number and complexity of the simulations involved in AM process-structure–property predictions, automated methods to connect process data and simulations will remain necessary tools for testing hypotheses and implementing digital twin applications.

Knapp, Gerald L. [Oak Ridge National Laboratory (O↗
DOE OSTI2017

Sepsis reconsidered: Identifying novel metrics for behavioral landscape characterization with a high-performance computing implementation of an agent-based model

Objectives: Sepsis affects nearly 1 million people in the United States per year, has a mortality rate of 28–50% and requires more than $20 billion a year in hospital costs. Over a quarter century of research has not yielded a single reliable diagnostic test or a directed therapeutic agent for sepsis. Central to this insufficiency is the fact that sepsis remains a clinical/physiological diagnosis representing a multitude of molecularly heterogeneous pathological trajectories. Advances in computational capabilities offered by High Peformance Computing (HPC) platforms call for an evolution in the investigation of sepsis to attempt to define the boundaries of traditional research (bench, clinical and computational) through the use of computational proxy models. We present a novel investigatory and analytical approach, derived from how HPC resources and simulation are used in the physical sciences, to identify the epistemic boundary con- ditions of the study of clinical sepsis via the use of a proxy agent-based model of systemic inflammation. Design: Current predictive models for sepsis use correlative methods that are limited by patient heterogeneity and data sparseness. We address this issue by using an HPC version of a system-level validated agent-based model of sepsis, the Innate Immune Response ABM (IIRBM), as a proxy system in order to identify boundary conditions for the possible behavioral space for sepsis. We then apply advanced analysis derived from the study of Random Dynamical Systems (RDS) to identify novel means for characterizing system behavior and providing insight into the tractability of traditional investigatory methods. Results: The behavior space of the IIRABM was examined by simulating over 70 million sepsis patients for up to 90 days in a sweep across the following parameters: cardio-respiratory-metabolic resilience; microbial invasiveness; microbial toxigenesis; and degree of nosocomial exposure. In addition to using established methods for describing parameter space, we developed two novel methods for characterizing the behavior of a RDS: Probabilistic Basins of Attraction (PBoA) and Stochastic Trajectory Analysis (STA). Computationally generated behavioral landscapes demonstrated attractor structures around stochastic re- gions of behavior that could be described in a complementary fashion through use of PBoA and STA. The stochasticity of the boundaries of the attractors highlights the challenge for correlative attempts to characterize and classify clinical sepsis. Conclusions: HPC simulations of models like the IIRABM can be used to generate approximations of the behavior space of sepsis to both establish “boundaries of futility” with respect to existing investi- gatory approaches and apply system engineering principles to investigate the general dynamic properties of sepsis to provide a pathway for developing control strategies. Here, the issues that bedevil the study and treatment of sepsis, namely clinical data sparseness and inadequate experimental sampling of system behavior space, are fundamental to nearly all biomedical research, manifesting in the “Crisis of Reproducibility” at all levels. HPC-augmented simulation-based research offers an investigatory strategy more consistent with that seen in the physical sciences (which combine experiment, theory and simulation), and an opportunity to utilize the leading advances in HPC, namely deep machine learning and evolutionary computing, to form the basis of an iterative scientific process to meet the full promise of Precision Medicine (right drug, right patient, right time).

59 BASIC BIOLOGICAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2018

Reducing model bias in a deep learning classifier using domain adversarial neural networks in the MINERvA experiment

We present a simulation-based study using deep convolutional neural networks (DCNNs) to identify neutrino interaction vertices in the MINERvA passive targets region, and illustrate the application of domain adversarial neural networks (DANNs) in this context. DANNs are designed to be trained in one domain (simulated data) but tested in a second domain (physics data) and utilize unlabeled data from the second domain so that during training only features which are unable to discriminate between the domains are promoted. MINERvA is a neutrino-nucleus scattering experiment using the NuMI beamline at Fermilab. A-dependent cross sections are an important part of the physics program, and these measurements require vertex finding in complicated events. To illustrate the impact of the DANN we used a modified set of simulation in place of physics data during the training of the DANN and then used the label of the modified simulation during the evaluation of the DANN. In conclusion, we find that deep learning based methods offer significant advantages over our prior track-based reconstruction for the task of vertex finding, and that DANNs are able to improve the performance of deep networks by leveraging available unlabeled data and by mitigating network performance degradation rooted in biases in the physics models used for training.

72 PHYSICS OF ELEMENTARY PARTICLES AND FIELDS↗
DOE OSTI2022

Evaluation of Fish-Related Properties of Kaplan Turbines at the Design Phase: Simulation-based outcomes vs. Experimental Data

The development of turbine technology faces growing demands to maximize the survival of migratory fish passing through turbine flows. In this context, two strategies have emerged for quantifying hazardous hydraulic conditions: computer-based evaluations at design stage and recordings with autonomous sensors deployed in prototypes. The former is a desktop evaluation with many modelling assumptions (idealization) and the latter is a field technique that introduces various unknown and uncontrollable factors (uncertainty.) The present work introduces and implements a third method based on test rig measurements and the corresponding computer-based predictions of conditions that negatively affect fish survivability. The experimental work was conducted in a five-bladed Kaplan turbine model in which miniaturized autonomous sensors (SF Mini, developed at the Pacific Northwest National Laboratory, U.S.) measured fish-relevant hydraulic features. The modelling work involved flow simulations according to industry practices and the representation of fish trajectories through the simulated flow conditions. We compared both the experimental measurements and CFD outcomes and discussed the challenges and advantages of the modelling strategies, as well as the benefits for turbine engineers in need of incorporating effective design concepts to mitigate fish mortality through turbines.

Romero-Gomez, Pedro↗
DOE OSTI2023

Robust cosmological inference from non-linear scales with k -th nearest neighbour statistics

ABSTRACT We present the methodology for deriving accurate and reliable cosmological constraints from non-linear scales ($\lt 50\, h^{-1}$ Mpc) with k-th nearest neighbour (kNN) statistics. We detail our methods for choosing robust minimum scale cuts and validating galaxy–halo connection models. Using cross-validation, we identify the galaxy–halo model that ensures both good fits and unbiased predictions across diverse summary statistics. We demonstrate that we can model kNNs effectively down to transverse scales of $r_{\rm p}\sim 3\, h^{-1}$ Mpc and achieve precise and unbiased constraints on the matter density and clustering amplitude, leading to a 2 per cent constraint on σ8. Our simulation-based model pipeline is resilient to varied model systematics, spanning simulation codes, halo finding, and cosmology priors. We demonstrate the effectiveness of this approach through an application to the Beyond-2p mock challenge. We propose further explorations to test more complex galaxy–halo connection models and tackle potential observational systematics.

79 ASTRONOMY AND ASTROPHYSICS↗
DOE OSTI2024

Precise cosmological constraints from BOSS galaxy clustering with a simulation-based emulator of the wavelet scattering transform

For this study, we perform a reanalysis of the BOSS CMASS DR12 galaxy dataset using a simulation-based emulator for the wavelet scattering transform (WST) coefficients. Moving beyond our previous works, which laid the foundation for the first galaxy clustering application of this estimator, we construct a neural net-based emulator for the cosmological dependence of the WST coefficients and the 2-point correlation function multipoles, trained from the state-of-the-art suite of abacussummit simulations combined with a flexible halo occupation distribution (HOD) galaxy model. In order to confirm the accuracy of our pipeline, we subject it to a series of thorough internal and external mock parameter recovery tests, before applying it to reanalyze the CMASS observations in the redshift range 0.46 < z < 0.57. We find that a joint WST+2-point correlation function likelihood analysis allows us to obtain marginalized 1⁢σ errors on the Λ⁢ CDM parameters that are tighter by a factor of 2.5–6, compared to the 2-point correlation function, and by a factor of 1.4–2.5 compared to the WST-only results. This corresponds to a competitive 0.9%, 2.3% and 1% level of determination for parameters ω c , ⁢σ 8 &n s , respectively, and also to a 0.7% and 2.5% constraint on derived parameters h and ƒ⁡(z)⁢⁢σ 8 ⁡(z), in agreement with the Planck 2018 results. Our results reaffirm the constraining power of the WST and highlight the exciting prospect of employing higher-order statistics in order to fully exploit the power of upcoming stage-IV spectroscopic observations.

79 ASTRONOMY AND ASTROPHYSICS↗
DOE OSTI2018

Simulation-Based Parameter Optimization Framework for Large-Scale Hybrid Smart Grid Communications Systems Design

The design of reliable, dynamic, fault-tolerant hybrid smart grid communication networks is a challenge to achieve for autonomous power grids. Hybrid networks use different communications technologies for different area networks. A simulation-based parameter optimization framework is proposed to tune parameters of hybrid communication technologies to achieve the optimal network performance. It consists of three main components: a parallel executor used to speedup a list of simulations; a sampler running simulations using the parallel executor at each generation; and a hybrid stochastic optimization algorithm for tuning configurable parameters of hybrid designs and applications. The proposed hybrid metaheuristic optimization algorithm combines an evolutionary algorithm with a gradient method to quickly achieve an approximately global optimum solution. Three optimization test functions are employed to train the adjustable parameters of the hybrid algorithm. Results show the proposed parameter optimization framework can help the designer choose the right hybrid architecture with an optimal parameter set for a large-scale broadband PLC-WiMAX hybrid smart grid communication network.

24 POWER TRANSMISSION AND DISTRIBUTION↗
DOE OSTI2020

A Review on Artificial Intelligence for Grid Stability Assessment

Artificial intelligence provides a convenient route for power grid stability assessment. Compared with simulation-based approaches, artificial intelligence can potentially save time on model development and numerical computation in stability assessment. This paper first reviewed existing literature on using artificial intelligence for power grid stability assessment. Then a machine-leaning-based tool is presented and developed to assess power grid transient stability, frequency stability, and small signals stability. Test results verified the accuracy and effectiveness of the AI tool for power grid stability assessment.

You, Shutang↗
DOE OSTI2025

ACTIVE

The Automated Control Testbed for Integration, Verification, and Emulation (ACTIVE) framework is a software platform designed to support the optimized operation and management of a wide range of building types. It enables the development, testing, and validation of diverse control strategies, including AI-based, rule-based, and model-based approaches. The platform facilitates a seamless transition from simulation-based evaluation of control strategies to real-world field validation and deployment. ACTIVE supports the full building management lifecycle, encompassing data acquisition and management, system monitoring, optimized control, adaptive learning services, device dispatch and coordination, as well as advanced analytics and visualization. Together, these capabilities provide an integrated environment for improving building performance, operational efficiency, reducing energy cost, and reliability.

Smith, Robert [Oak Ridge National Laboratory (ORNL↗
DOE OSTI2017

Application of the SHARP Toolkit to Sodium-Cooled Fast Reactor Challenge Problems

The Simulation-based High-efficiency Advanced Reactor Prototyping (SHARP) toolkit is under development by the Nuclear Energy Advanced Modeling and Simulation (NEAMS) Campaign of the U.S. Department of Energy, Office of Nuclear Energy. To better understand and exploit the benefits of advanced modeling simulations, the NEAMS Campaign initiated the “Sodium-Cooled Fast Reactor (SFR) Challenge Problems” task, which include the assessment of hot channel factors (HCFs) and the demonstration of zooming capability using the SHARP toolkit. If both challenge problems are resolved through advanced modeling and simulation using the SHARP toolkit, the economic competitiveness of a SFR can be significantly improved. The efforts in the first year of this project focused on the development of computational models, meshes, and coupling procedures for multi-physics calculations using the neutronics (PROTEUS) and thermal-hydraulic (Nek5000) components of the SHARP toolkit, as well as demonstration of the HCF calculation capability for the 100 MWe Advanced Fast Reactor (AFR-100) design. Testing the feasibility of the SHARP zooming capability is planned in FY 2018. The HCFs developed for the earlier SFRs (FFTF, CRBR, and EBR-II) were reviewed, and a subset of these were identified as potential candidates for reduction or elimination through high-fidelity simulations. A one-way offline coupling method was used to evaluate the HCFs where the neutronics solver PROTEUS computes the power profile based on an assumed temperature, and the computational fluid dynamics solver Nek5000 evaluates the peak temperatures using the neutronics power profile. If the initial temperature profile used in the neutronics calculation is reasonably accurate, the one-way offline method is valid because the neutronics power profile has weak dependence on small temperature variation. In order to get more precise results, the proper temperature profile for initial neutronics calculations was obtained from the STAR-CCM+ calculations. The HCFs of the peak temperatures at cladding outer surface, cladding inner wall surface, and fuel centerline induced by cladding manufacturing tolerance and uncertainties on the cladding, coolant, and fuel properties were evaluated for the AFR-100. Some assessment on the effect of wire wrap configuration and size of the bundle shows that it is practical to use the 7-pin bare rod bundle to calculate the HCFs. The resulting HCFs obtained from the high-fidelity SHARP calculations are generally smaller than those developed for the earlier SFRs because the most uncertainties involved in the modeling and simulations were disappeared. For completeness, additional investigations are planned in FY 2018, which will use random sampling techniques.

21 SPECIFIC NUCLEAR REACTORS AND ASSOCIATED PLANTS↗
DOE OSTI2024

Scattering Calorimeter FY24 Deliverable Report

A simulation-based method has been developed to prototype new detector designs for nuclear data measurements utilizing neutron scattering. This method uses representative physics inputs for signal and background generation, full detector resolution smearing benchmarked by experimental data, and a neutron beam timing simulation to produce analyzable output like a physical measurement. A test case has been studied using a hybrid time-of-flight calorimeter detector for scattering cross-section measurements on 239 Pu with 1-5 MeV incident monoenergetic neutrons. Data analysis methods have been developed to perform event-level particle reconstruction and reaction channel discrimination. This analysis has been used to estimate the capability of the test detector to perform simultaneous scattering and fission cross section measurements, as well as its ability to provide neutron spectra and particle angular information.

72 PHYSICS OF ELEMENTARY PARTICLES AND FIELDS↗
DOE OSTI2025

Feasibility of an Accelerometer-Based Structural Health Monitoring System for the LANL Blast Tube

A modeling- and simulation-based study was conducted on the feasibility of implementing an accelerometer-based SHM system on the Los Alamos National Laboratory blast tube. A blast tube experiment was modeled using the Abaqus explicit finite element solver. A custom user subroutine was written to apply test-like pressure loading to the inside surface of the blast tube. The subroutine applies analytically defined pressure loads derived from tracer output taken from a Compressible Flow Computational Fluid Dynamics Solver model of the blast tube. Five unique versions of the model were created: an undamaged reference model at 65°F was used as the baseline and compared to equivalent models at 10°F and 100°F. These three models were compared to models with small damage at the reference temperature. The two types of damage considered were a radial (circumferential) crack in the main tube body and a longitudinal crack in the supports. Acceleration outputs were extracted from accelerometer bodies included in the model and were post processed using a variety of standard SHM techniques. Different potential features signaling failure were extracted and compared using statistical methods in the time and frequency domains. A method was identified that clearly shows that differences in structural response resulting from the modeled damage can be differentiated from the structural response resulting from changing environmental conditions. However, the amount of damage applied to create observable differences in the accelerometer data was so large that simpler methods of damage detection would be more cost effective in locating damage.

42 ENGINEERING↗
DOE OSTI2025

Analyzing the Impact of Future Weather Data on Energy Consumption in Weatherization Assistant

This study supports the mission of the U.S. Department of Energy’s Weatherization Assistance Program (WAP), which aims to increase the energy efficiency of dwellings and reduce their total residential expenditures. Specifically, we examine how projected future climate conditions may affect residential building energy performance by integrating future weather data into the National Energy Audit Tool (NEAT). Since WAP evaluates the cost-effectiveness of retrofit measures over lifespans of up to 30 years, accounting for evolving climate conditions is increasingly important. To reflect future household energy demands, this study replaces historically based Typical Meteorological Year (TMY3) weather inputs with Future Typical Meteorological Year (fTMY) datasets derived from global climate model (GCM) projections. A simulation-based framework was established to enable NEAT analysis under future weather conditions. This workflow involves converting EPW-format weather files into JSON inputs compatible with NEAT and generating degree-hour metrics needed for load calculations. The fTMY dataset used in this study was developed by Oak Ridge National Laboratory through downscaling of six GCMs under different emission scenarios and covers the period from 2020 to 2100. In contrast, the TMY3 dataset is based on historical weather data from 1961 to 1990. Simulations were conducted for benchmark single-family prototype buildings across ASHRAE climate zones 1–7, which cover all regions of the U.S. except the subarctic Zone 8 in northern Alaska, evaluating both heating and cooling loads under TMY3 and fTMY conditions. Four foundation types were tested, while heating systems were standardized, as NEAT does not differentiate thermal energy load by HVAC system type in its load calculations. Results show that fTMY weather input consistently yield lower heating loads and higher cooling loads across most locations, aligning with expected climate warming trends. Notably, colder regions such as zones 6A, 6B, and 7 experience marked reductions in heating load, while warmer and transitional zones, such as 2A (Lufkin, TX) and 3C (San Francisco, CA), have substantial increases in cooling loads. Although this study does not directly assess the performance of retrofit measures under future climate conditions, it provides a critical foundation for doing so. By quantifying shifts in baseline (i.e., pre-retrofit case) energy loads between historical and future weather files, the study highlights the importance of integrating climate-responsive data into audit tools. These findings will inform future efforts to evaluate the long-term effectiveness and cost-effectiveness of weatherization measures under changing climate conditions.

32 ENERGY CONSERVATION, CONSUMPTION, AND UTILIZATI↗
DOE OSTI2024

Practical Insights on Applying Simulation-Based Control Methods in Experimental Studies

Advanced nuclear reactors are crucial to the future of energy both in the United States and around the globe. In contrast to the current operating fleet, they are characterized as being deployable in remote locations and able to operate in semi-autonomous or autonomous fashion. This leap forward necessitates a new reactor control paradigm. Because advanced nuclear reactors are still under development in the United States, the creation of new control methods to achieve autonomous operations has been based on systems modeling and simulation. However, an important factor in successfully deploying these new control methods is the ability to seamlessly transition from simulation environments to real-world settings. Control methods tested in both simulation and experimental settings need to be investigated in the context of advanced reactor applications. This work developed a series of simple controllers for Idaho National Laboratory (INL)’s Microreactor Applications Research Validation and Evaluation (MARVEL) microreactor operating in load-following scenarios. These controllers were tested in both simulation and experimental settings, and a comparative performance analysis was performed. The simulation tests leveraged the Control and Optimization Modular Modeling Application for Nuclear Deployment (COMMAND) software developed in a previous stage of the current effort, along with the MARVEL Reactor Excursion and Leak Analysis Program (RELAP5-3D) and Monte Carlo N-Particle (MCNP) models. The experimental tests leveraged the COMMAND software, MARVEL models, and the U.S. Department of Energy Microreactor Program’s Microreactor Automated Control System (MACS). MACS was developed to serve as a control method testbed. It was customized to mirror the MARVEL microreactor, and COMMAND enabled MACS to emulate the physics of MARVEL. The load-following controller was developed using the simulation platform, with efforts to emulate real systems by introducing actuator saturation and noise. These factors were incrementally accounted for in the controller design. After finalizing the controller design, it was implemented with the experimental setup. The experimental conditions tested included an initial test under conditions similar to the final simulation test, and two additional scenarios. The first scenario introduced additional actuator saturation to account for equipment aging over time, which was unknown to the controller. The second scenario introduced sensor delay, a phenomenon anticipated with the use of remote operations or wireless communication in advanced reactors. These tests revealed several notable differences. While the controller performed well in simulation, it exhibited several limitations when transitioning to hardware. The main challenges involved maintaining the steady-state target power, as evidenced by larger error values between the true reactor power and setpoint power, as well as persistent oscillations in controlled reactor power. These issues could lead to unacceptable transient conditions in real reactor testing. Introducing actuator aging and stochastic delays in the experimental setup significantly impacted controller performance, resulting in increased overshoot and undershoot, and exacerbated error and oscillations previously mentioned. These findings underscore the importance of experimental testbeds for testing and validating control methods, as controllers developed using only theory and/or simulation may perform unexpectedly when applied to actual hardware. This research emphasizes the need for an experimental testbed for achieving such validation.

46 - INSTRUMENTATION RELATED TO NUCLEAR SCIENCE AN↗
DOE OSTI2017

Development of the IBSAL-SimMOpt Method for the Optimization of Quality in a Corn Stover Supply Chain

Variability on the physical characteristics of feedstock has a relevant effect on the reactor’s reliability and operating cost. Most of the models developed to optimize biomass supply chains have failed to quantify the effect of biomass quality and preprocessing operations required to meet biomass specifications on overall cost and performance. The Integrated Biomass Supply Analysis and Logistics (IBSAL) model estimates the harvesting, collection, transportation, and storage cost while considering the stochastic behavior of the field-to-biorefinery supply chain. This paper proposes an IBSAL-SimMOpt (Simulation-based Multi-Objective Optimization) method for optimizing the biomass quality and costs associated with the efforts needed to meet conversion technology specifications. The method is developed in two phases. For the first phase, a SimMOpt tool that interacts with the extended IBSAL is developed. For the second phase, the baseline IBSAL model is extended so that the cost for meeting and/or penalization for failing in meeting specifications are considered. The IBSAL-SimMOpt method is designed to optimize quality characteristics of biomass, cost related to activities intended to improve the quality of feedstock, and the penalization cost. A case study based on 1916 farms in Ontario, Canada is considered for testing the proposed method. Analysis of the results demonstrates that this method is able to find a high-quality set of non-dominated solutions.

09 BIOMASS FUELS↗
DOE OSTI2020

Power Grid Simulation Testbed for Transactive Energy Management Systems

To effectively engage demand-side and distributed energy resources (DERs) for dynamically maintaining the electric power balance, the challenges of controlling and coordinating building equipment and DERs on a large scale must be overcome. Although several control techniques have been proposed in the literature, a significant obstacle to applying these techniques in practice is having access to an effective testing platform. Performing tests at scale using real equipment is impractical, so simulation offers the only viable route to developmental testing at scales of practical interest. Existing power-grid testbeds are unable to model individual residential end-use devices for developing detailed control formulations for responsive loads and DERs. Furthermore, they cannot simulate the control and communications at subminute timescales. To address these issues, this paper presents a novel power-grid simulation testbed for transactive energy management systems. Detailed models of primary home appliances (e.g., heating and cooling systems, water heaters, photovoltaic panels, energy storage systems) are provided to simulate realistic load behaviors in response to environmental parameters and control commands. The proposed testbed incorporates software as it will be deployed, and enables deployable software to interact with various building equipment models for end-to-end performance evaluation at scale.

24 POWER TRANSMISSION AND DISTRIBUTION↗
DOE OSTI2024

Simulation-based inference for parameter estimation of complex watershed simulators

High-resolution, spatially distributed process-based (PB) simulators are widely employed in the study of complex catchment processes and their responses to a changing climate. However, calibrating these PB simulators using observed data remains a significant challenge due to several persistent issues, including the following: (1) intractability stemming from the computational demands and complex responses of simulators, which renders infeasible calculation of the conditional probability of parameters and data, and (2) uncertainty stemming from the choice of simplified representations of complex natural hydrologic processes. Here, we demonstrate how simulation-based inference (SBI) can help address both of these challenges with respect to parameter estimation. SBI uses a learned mapping between the parameter space and observed data to estimate parameters for the generation of calibrated simulations. To demonstrate the potential of SBI in hydrologic modeling, we conduct a set of synthetic experiments to infer two common physical parameters – Manning's coefficient and hydraulic conductivity – using a representation of a snowmelt-dominated catchment in Colorado, USA. We introduce novel deep-learning (DL) components to the SBI approach, including an “emulator” as a surrogate for the PB simulator to rapidly explore parameter responses. We also employ a density-based neural network to represent the joint probability of parameters and data without strong assumptions about its functional form. While addressing intractability, we also show that, if the simulator does not represent the system under study well enough, SBI can yield unreliable parameter estimates. Approaches to adopting the SBI framework for cases in which multiple simulator(s) may be adequate are introduced using a performance-weighting approach. The synthetic experiments presented here test the performance of SBI, using the relationship between the surrogate and PB simulators as a proxy for the real case.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗