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NASA NTRS2013

The Aqua-planet Experiment (APE): Response to Changed Meridional SST Profile

This paper explores the sensitivity of Atmospheric General Circulation Model (AGCM) simulations to changes in the meridional distribution of sea surface temperature (SST). The simulations are for an aqua-planet, a water covered Earth with no land, orography or sea- ice and with specified zonally symmetric SST. Simulations from 14 AGCMs developed for Numerical Weather Prediction and climate applications are compared. Four experiments are performed to study the sensitivity to the meridional SST profile. These profiles range from one in which the SST gradient continues to the equator to one which is flat approaching the equator, all with the same maximum SST at the equator. The zonal mean circulation of all models shows strong sensitivity to latitudinal distribution of SST. The Hadley circulation weakens and shifts poleward as the SST profile flattens in the tropics. One question of interest is the formation of a double versus a single ITCZ. There is a large variation between models of the strength of the ITCZ and where in the SST experiment sequence they transition from a single to double ITCZ. The SST profiles are defined such that as the equatorial SST gradient flattens, the maximum gradient increases and moves poleward. This leads to a weakening of the mid-latitude jet accompanied by a poleward shift of the jet core. Also considered are tropical wave activity and tropical precipitation frequency distributions. The details of each vary greatly between models, both with a given SST and in the response to the change in SST. One additional experiment is included to examine the sensitivity to an off-equatorial SST maximum. The upward branch of the Hadley circulation follows the SST maximum off the equator. The models that form a single precipitation maximum when the maximum SST is on the equator shift the precipitation maximum off equator and keep it centered over the SST maximum. Those that form a double with minimum on the equatorial maximum SST shift the double structure off the equator, keeping the minimum over the maximum SST. In both situations only modest changes appear in the shifted profile of zonal average precipitation. When the upward branch of the Hadley circulation moves into the hemisphere with SST maximum, the zonal average zonal, meridional and vertical winds all indicate that the Hadley cell in the other hemisphere dominates.

AGCM↗

DOE OSTI2023

Ion beam profiling system and related methods

An ion beam profiling system include a beam profiling element, an ion sensitive element electrically isolated from the beam profiling element, an ion source configured to emit an ion beam at the beam profiling element and the ion sensitive element, and a current measuring device coupled to the ion sensitive element. The beam profiling element includes a plate of material having two parallel major surfaces, a first slit aperture extending through the plate of material and having a first longitudinal length extending in a direction parallel to the two parallel major surfaces, and a second slit aperture extending through the plate of material and having a second longitudinal length extending in a direction parallel to the two parallel major surfaces, wherein the first longitudinal length of the first slit aperture is perpendicular to the second longitudinal length of the second slit aperture.

Taylor, Chase N.↗

DOE OSTI2022

An Eulerian crystal plasticity framework for modeling large anisotropic deformations in energetic materials under shocks

Here, this paper demonstrates a novel Eulerian computational framework for modeling anisotropic elastoplastic deformations of organic crystalline energetic materials (EM) under shocks. While Eulerian formulations are advantageous for handling large deformations, constitutive laws in such formulations have been limited to isotropic elastoplastic models, which may not fully capture the shock response of crystalline EM. The present Eulerian framework for high-strain rates, large deformation material dynamics of EM incorporates anisotropic isochoric elasticity via a hypo-elastic constitutive law and visco-plastic single-crystal models. The calculations are validated against atomistic calculations and experimental data and benchmarked against Lagrangian (finite element) crystal plasticity computations for shock-propagation in a monoclinic organic crystal, octahydro-1,3,5,7-tetranitro-1,3,5,7 tetrazocine (β-HMX). The Cauchy stress components and the resolved shear stresses calculated using the present Eulerian approach are shown to be in good agreement with the Lagrangian computations for different crystal orientations. The Eulerian framework is then used for computations of shock-induced inert void collapse in β-HMX to study the effects of crystal orientations on hotspot formation under different loading intensities. The computations show that the hotspot temperature distributions and the collapse profiles are sensitive to the crystal orientations at lower impact velocities (viz., 500 m/s); when the impact velocity is increased to 1000 m/s, the collapse is predominantly hydrodynamic and the role of anisotropy is modest. The present methodology will be useful to simulate energy localization in shocked porous energetic material microstructures and other situations where large deformations of single and polycrystals govern the thermomechanical response.

42 ENGINEERING↗

DOE OSTI2020

Generation of gamma radiation by a subterawatt ultrashort laser pulse: optimisation of preplasma and pulse duration

We report an experimental and numerical study of the acceleration of electrons in a plasma interacting with a subterawatt laser pulse (intensity of ∼3 × 10{sup 18} W cm{sup −2} at a pulse duration of 50 fs). A preplasma layer on the surface of a molybdenum target is formed by an additional laser pulse with a duration of 8 ns and an intensity of ∼2 × 10{sup 12} W cm{sup −2}. It is shown that an increase in the laser pulse duration to 1700 fs at a constant energy (and a proportional decrease in intensity) leads to an increase in the yield of bremsstrahlung γ-radiation by more than an order of magnitude when the nanosecond pulse is ahead of the femtosecond one by 15 − 25 ns. Interferometry data and results of diagnostics of optical and γ-radiation of a plasma demonstrate that the collisional ionisation of atoms by electrons oscillating in the field of such a laser pulse plays an essential role in the formation of electron density profile. The sensitivity of the described effect to the level of amplified spontaneous emission is determined, despite the nanosecond pulse impact. Numerical simulations show that at a large pulse duration, the acceleration of electrons is stipulated by the beaking of plasma waves excited during stimulated Raman scattering of laser radiation. (paper)

70 PLASMA PHYSICS AND FUSION TECHNOLOGY↗

DOE OSTI2022

Machine Learning-based Cyber-Physical Anomaly Detection in Wide Area Voltage Control Systems

Wide-area voltage control systems (WAVCS) are widely deployed in power grid to improve the voltage stability in transmission system using Flexible AC Transmission System (FACTS) devices. The WAVCS relies on wide-area measurement and control signals for closed-loop control of FACTS devices to improve the transient voltage stability in power grid in real-time. Since the WAVCS utilizes a cyber-layer communication during its normal operation, they are susceptible to cyber attacks from adversaries which can lead to a voltage collapse if the attacks go undetected and unmitigated. This paper proposes a supervised machine learning (ML)-based anomaly detection algorithm for detecting various stealthy cyber attacks in the context of WAVCS cybersecurity. In particular, a fuzzy logic-based wide-area controller, as proposed by the Bonneville Power Administration (BPA), is implemented on the Kundur’s four machine two-area system that is integrated with a static var compensator (SVC) to improve voltage profile on sensitive buses. Later, different types of data integrity attacks, including pulse and ramp attacks, are considered on the wide-area measurement and control signals to analyze the performance of the proposed anomaly detector. Our experimental evaluation shows a promising performance with a high true-positive rate (more than 99%) and low false-negative rate (less than 1%) while exhibiting a small prediction time.

24 POWER TRANSMISSION AND DISTRIBUTION↗

DOE OSTI2025

Multi-contrast machine learning improves schistosomiasis diagnostic performance

Schistosomiasis currently affects over 250 million people and remains a public health burden despite ongoing global control efforts. Conventional microscopy is a practical tool for diagnosis and screening ofSchistosoma haematobium, but identification of eggs requires a skilled microscopist. Here we present a machine learning (ML)-based strategy for automated detection ofS. haematobiumthat combines two imaging contrasts, brightfield (BF) and darkfield (DF), to improve diagnostic performance. We collected BF and DF images of urine samples, many of them containingS. haematobiumeggs, during two different field studies in Côte d’Ivoire using a mobile phone-based microscope, the SchistoScope. We then trained separate egg-detection ML models and compared the patient-level performance of BF and DF models alone to combinations of BF and DF models, using annotations from trained microscopists as the gold standard. We found that models trained on DF images, and almost all BF and DF combinations, performed significantly better than models trained on BF images only. When models were trained on images from the first field study (n = 349 patients, 748 images of each contrast), patient-level classification performance on patient images from the second study (n = 375 patients, 752 images of each contrast) met the WHO Diagnostic Target Product Profile (TPP) sensitivity and specificity for the monitoring and evaluation use case (sensitivity for all models and combinations was >75% when evaluated at a confidence score threshold that resulted in specificity >96.5%). When we used images from both field studies for the training set, performance of the models was improved. Overall, this work shows that the use of DF and BF increases the performance of ML models on images from devices with low-cost optics, while retaining the portability, power, and time-to-results of the WHO’s diagnostic TPP. DF requires no additional sample preparation and does not increase the complexity of the imaging system. It thus offers a practical means to improve performance of automated diagnostics forS. haematobiumas well as other microscopy-based diagnostics.

Infectious Diseases↗

DOE OSTI2020

Using respiration quotients to track changing sources of soil respiration seasonally and with experimental warming

Developing a more mechanistic understanding of soil respiration is hampered by the difficulty in determining the contribution of different organic substrates to respiration and in disentangling autotrophic-versus-heterotrophic and aerobic-versus-anaerobic processes. Here, we use a relatively novel tool for better understanding soil respiration: the apparent respiration quotient (ARQ). The ARQ is the amount of CO 2 produced in the soil divided by the amount of O 2 consumed, and it changes according to which organic substrates are being consumed and whether oxygen is being used as an electron acceptor. We investigated how the ARQ of soil gas varied seasonally, by soil depth, and by in situ experimental warming ( +4 ° C) in a coniferous-forest whole-soil-profile warming experiment over 2 years. We then compared the patterns in ARQ to those of soil δ 13 CO 2 . Our measurements showed strong seasonal variations in ARQ, from ≈0.9 during the late spring and summer to ≈0.7 during the winter. This pattern likely reflected a shift from respiration being fueled by oxidized substrates like sugars and organic acids derived from root and root respiration during the growing season to more reduced substrates such as lipids and proteins derived from microbial necromass during the winter. This interpretation was supported by δ 13 CO 2 values, which were lower, like lipids, in the winter and higher, like sugars, in the summer. Furthermore, experimental warming significantly changed how both ARQ and δ 13 CO 2 responded to soil temperature. Wintertime ARQ and δ 13 CO 2 values were higher in heated than in control plots, probably due to the warming-driven increase in microbial activity that may have utilized oxidized carbon substrates, while growing-season values were lower in heated plots. Experimental warming and phenology change the sources of soil respiration throughout the soil profile. The sensitivity of ARQ to these changes demonstrates its potential as a tool for disentangling the biological sources contributing to soil respiration.

59 BASIC BIOLOGICAL SCIENCES↗

DOE OSTI2025

IM3 + EPRI Data Center Load Projections

This dataset contains scenarios of hourly total electricity demand with and without projected loads from data centers over the period 2022-2040. The root projections without data center demands are identical to those documented in Burleyson et al. 2024. In short, those projections encompass hourly electricity demands for 54 Balancing Authorities (BAs) in the United States across a range of eight of weather and socioeconomic scenarios. Refer to the root dataset and accompanying publication, Burleyson et al. 2025, for information about how those projections were generated. For this derivative dataset we used the base loads from the following scenarios: rcp45hotter_ssp3 rcp45hotter_ssp5 rcp85hotter_ssp3 rcp85hotter_ssp5 The root load projections did not reflect the drastic expansion of data centers that has occurred in the last several years to support artificial intelligence and cloud computing. To reflect growth in data center demand, a second set of load projections were created in which we layered in additional data center load projections based on the data center load growth scenarios described in a 2024 report by the Electric Power Research Institute (EPRI): "Powering Intelligence: Analyzing Artificial Intelligence and Data Center Energy Consumption". The EPRI projections from the report are included in this dataset (EPRI_2024_Projections.xlsx). That report contained annual state-level data center load projections for four year-over-year growth rates for data center demands: Low (3.71% annual growth) Moderate (5% annual growth) High (10% annual growth) Higher (15% annual growth) To homogenize the load projections with and without data centers we had to get them to a common scale. The first step was to take the EPRI annual state-level data center energy consumption values and convert them to 8760-hr loads for each year. We did that by assuming a flat (e.g., not weather- or time-sensitive) load profile and distributing the data center loads in each state evenly across all hours in a year. From there the loads were downscaled from the state-level to the county-level using 2019 county-level populations as weights. Finally, the county-level hourly data center loads were summed to the BA-level using the county-to-BA mapping underpinning the root load projections. The net result is 16 (4 weather and socioeconomic scenarios crossed with 4 data center load growth scenarios) unique load projections for the period 2022-2040. The file format follows that of the root dataset with a single additional column "Scaled_TELL_BA_Load_with_DC_MWh" that contains the hourly loads with the added data center loads for a given BA-year-scenario combination. Please refer to the readme file in the root dataset for more information on the file format.

Burleyson, Casey [Pacific Northwest National Labor↗

NASA NTRS1975

CO observations of the expanding envelope of IRC plus 10216

High-sensitivity emission profiles were observed for the transition of C12O16 and C13O16 towards IRC + or - 10216. It appears that the spherically symmetric uniform mass-outflow model proposed by Morris is necessary to describe the line profiles. The outflow appears to be slightly accelerated, having a velocity of 15 km/sec at the edges of the CO cloud, compared with 12 km/sec for the more centrally confined molecules.

Kuiper, T. B. H.↗

NASA NTRS1978

Solution of the comoving-frame equation of transfer in spherically symmetric flows. V - Multilevel atoms

The coupled radiative transfer and statistical equilibrium equations for multilevel ionic structures in the atmospheres of early-type stars are solved. Both lines and continua are treated consistently; the treatment is applicable throughout a transonic wind, and allows for the presence of background continuum sources and sinks in the transfer. An equivalent-two-level-atoms approach provides the solution for the equations. Calculations for simplified He (+)-like model atoms in parameterized isothermal wind models indicate that subordinate line profiles are sensitive to the assumed mass-loss rate, and to the assumed structure of the velocity law in the atmospheres.

Mihalas, D.↗

NASA NTRS1981

An f/35 submillimeter photometer for the NASA infrared telescope facility

The design and performance of an f/35 submillimeter photometer are discussed. It is noted that the instrument provides for both broad- and medium-width passbands between 350 microns and 2 mm and for beam sizes between 28 arcsec and 100 arcsec FWHM. Under good atmospheric conditions, a broad-band 400 micron sensitivity of approximately 1.5 Jy is found to be obtainable in one hour. A description is given of the photometer's support housing, submillimeter radiometer, and electronics and data-handling system. In evaluating the performance, attention is given to sensitivity, beam profiles, and the effect of changes in the aperture on the signal.

Whitcomb, S. E.↗

NASA NTRS1981

Quadrennial International Ozone Symposium, Boulder, CO, August 4-9, 1980, Proceedings. Volumes 1 & 2

Recent developments in observational techniques are examined, taking into account a review of some unresolved problems in the measurement/estimation of total ozone and the vertical ozone profile, the sensitivity of Dobson total ozone estimations to wavelength band calibration uncertainties, errors in Dobson total measurements arising from aerosol attenuation, and optical stop and focussing effects in the Dobson instrument. Other subjects considered are related to total ozone observations, tropospheric ozone, upper air ozone observations, observations of trace gases in the atmosphere, ozone photochemistry and directly related photochemical models, the interaction of ozone and atmospheric circulation, ozone effects on climate, and solar activity and ozone variations. Programs and recommendations involving ozone theory and observations are also discussed, giving attention to current problems of ozone chemistry, the upper atmosphere research satellite program, a French contribution to ozone related studies, and ozone and the middle atmosphere program.

London, J.↗

NASA NTRS1990

Lyman alpha radiation in external galaxies

The Ly alpha line of atomic hydrogen is often a luminous component of the radiation emitted by distant galaxies. Except for those galaxies which have a substantial central source of non-stellar ionizing radiation, most of the Ly alpha radiation emitted by galaxies is generated within regions of the interstellar medium which are photoionized by starlight. Conversely, much of the energy radiated by photoionized regions is carried by the Ly alpha line. Only hot, massive stars are capable of ionizing hydrogen in the interstellar medium which surrounds them, and because such stars are necessarily short-lived, Ly alpha emission traces regions of active star formation. Researchers argue that the strength of the Ly alpha emission observed from external galaxies may be used to estimate quantitatively the dust content of the emitting region, while the Ly alpha line profile is sensitive to the presence of shock waves. Interstellar dust particles and shock waves are intimately associated with the process of star formation in two senses. First, both dust particles and shock waves owe their existence to stellar activity; second, they may both serve as agents which facilitate the formation of stars, shocks by triggering gravitational instabilities in the interstellar gas that they compress, and dust by shielding star-forming molecular clouds from the ionizing and dissociative effects of external UV radiation. By using Ly alpha observations as a probe of the dust content in diffuse gas at high redshift, we might hope to learn about the earliest epochs of star formation.

Neufeld, David A.↗

NASA NTRS2000

Lidar Remote Sensing for Industry and Environment Monitoring

Contents include the following: 1. Keynote paper: Overview of lidar technology for industrial and environmental monitoring in Japan. 2. lidar technology I: NASA's future active remote sensing mission for earth science. Geometrical detector consideration s in laser sensing application (invited paper). 3. Lidar technology II: High-power femtosecond light strings as novel atmospheric probes (invited paper). Design of a compact high-sensitivity aerosol profiling lidar. 4. Lasers for lidars: High-energy 2 microns laser for multiple lidar applications. New submount requirement of conductively cooled laser diodes for lidar applications. 5. Tropospheric aerosols and clouds I: Lidar monitoring of clouds and aerosols at the facility for atmospheric remote sensing (invited paper). Measurement of asian dust by using multiwavelength lidar. Global monitoring of clouds and aerosols using a network of micropulse lidar systems. 6. Troposphere aerosols and clouds II: Scanning lidar measurements of marine aerosol fields at a coastal site in Hawaii. 7. Tropospheric aerosols and clouds III: Formation of ice cloud from asian dust particles in the upper troposphere. Atmospheric boundary layer observation by ground-based lidar at KMITL, Thailand (13 deg N, 100 deg. E). 8. Boundary layer, urban pollution: Studies of the spatial correlation between urban aerosols and local traffic congestion using a slant angle scanning on the research vessel Mirai. 9. Middle atmosphere: Lidar-observed arctic PSC's over Svalbard (invited paper). Sodium temperature lidar measurements of the mesopause region over Syowa Station. 10. Differential absorption lidar (dIAL) and DOAS: Airborne UV DIAL measurements of ozone and aerosols (invited paper). Measurement of water vapor, surface ozone, and ethylene using differential absorption lidar. 12. Space lidar I: Lightweight lidar telescopes for space applications (invited paper). Coherent lidar development for Doppler wind measurement from the International Space Station. 13. Space lidar II: Using coherent Doppler lidar to estimate river discharge. 14. Poster session: Lidar technology, optics for lidar. Laser for lidar. Middle atmosphere observations. Tropospheric observations (aerosols, clouds). Boundary layer, urban pollution. Differential absorption lidar. Doppler lidar. and Space lidar.

Singh, Upendra N.↗

DOE OSTI2025

Sensitivities of time-dependent temperature profile predictions for NSTX with the multi-mode model

The Multi-Mode Model (MMM) for turbulent transport was applied to a large set of well-analyzed discharges from the National Spherical Torus Experiment (NSTX) in order to evaluate its sensitivities to a wide range of plasma conditions. MMM calculations were performed for hundreds of milliseconds in each discharge by performing time-dependent predictive simulations with the 1.5D tokamak integrated modeling code TRANSP. A closely related study (Lestz et al 2025 Plasma Phys. Control. Fusion 67 105029) concluded that MMM predicted electron and ion temperature profiles that were in reasonable agreement with NSTX observations, generally outperforming a different reduced transport model, TGLF. This finding motivates the more thorough investigation of the characteristics of the MMM predictions conducted in this work. The simulations with MMM have electron energy transport dominated by electron temperature gradient modes in the examined discharges with relatively low plasma β (ratio of kinetic plasma pressure to magnetic field pressure) and high collisionality, transitioning to a mixture of different modes for higher β and lower collisionality. The thermal ion diffusivity predicted by MMM is much smaller than the neoclassical contribution, in line with previous experimental analysis of NSTX. Nonetheless, the electron and ion temperature profiles are coupled via collisional energy exchange and thus sensitive to which transport channels are predicted. The time-dependent simulations with MMM are robust to the simulation start time, converging to remarkably similar temperature profiles later during the discharge. MMM typically overpredicts confinement relative to NSTX observations, leading to the prediction of overly steep temperature profiles. Plasmas with spatially broader temperature profiles, higher plasma β, and longer energy confinement times tend to be predicted by MMM with better agreement with the experiment. As a result, these findings provide useful context for understanding the regime-dependent tendencies of MMM in anticipation of self-consistent, time-dependent predictive simulations of NSTX-U discharges with these same modeling tools.

MMM↗

DOE OSTI2025

An Integral Activity-Based Protein Profiling Method for Higher Throughput Determination of Protein Target Sensitivity to Small Molecules

Activity-based protein profiling (ABPP) is a chemoproteomic technique that uses small molecule probes to label active enzymes selectively and covalently in complex proteomes. Competitive ABPP, which involves treatment of the active proteome with an analyte of interest, is especially powerful for profiling how small molecules impact specific protein activities. Advances in higher throughput workflows have made it possible to generate extensive competitive ABPP data across diverse biological samples, making this approach highly appealing for characterizing shared and unique proteins affected by perturbations such as drug or chemical exposures. To use the competitive ABPP approach effectively to understand potential adverse effects of chemicals of concern (CoC), a wide range of concentrations may be needed, particularly for chemicals that lack potency or toxicity data. In this work, we present an integral competitive ABPP method that enables target sensitivity determination for different organophosphate (OP) pesticides as model toxicants. Using previously developed OP-ABPs, we optimized conditions for tandem mass tag (TMT) multiplexing of ABPP samples and compared conventional competitive ABPP involving samples at discrete paraoxon concentrations to pooled samples across that same concentration range. We then expanded our approach to compare protein target sensitivities toward two additional OP pesticides, chlorpyrifos oxon and malaoxon. The results showed that differences in integral intensities for the pooled competition sample can be used to evaluate the relative sensitivity of specific proteins without increasing the overall number of samples. For 8 CoC concentrations of interest, this strategy reduced the number of TMT plexes and the corresponding number of LC–MS/MS analyses 3-fold. In conclusion, we envision the integral ABPP (IABPP) method will provide a means to screen diverse chemicals more rapidly to identify both high and low sensitivity protein targets.

activity-based probes↗

NASA NTRS1996

Spectra of High-Ionization Seyfert 1 Galaxies: Implications for the Narrow-Line Region

We present line profiles and profile parameters for the Narrow-Line Regions (NLRs) of six Seyfert 1 galaxies with high-ionization lines: MCG 8-11-11, Mrk 79, Mrk 704, Mrk 841, NGC 4151, and NGC 5548. The sample was chosen primarily with the goal of obtaining high-quality [Fe VII] lambda6087 and, when possible, [Fe X] lambda6374 profiles to determine if these lines are more likely formed in a physically distinct 'coronal line region' or are formed throughout the NLR along with lines of lower critical density (n(sub cr)) and/or Ionization Potential (IP). We discuss correlations of velocity shift and width with n(sub cr) and IP. In some objects, lines of high IP and/or n(sub cr) are systematically broader than those of low IP/n(sub cr). Of particular interest, however, are objects that show no correlations of line width with either IP or n(sub cr). In these objects, lines of high and low IP/n(sub cr), are remarkably similar, which is difficult to reconcile with the classical picture of the NLR, in which lines of high and low IP/n(sub cr) are formed in physically distinct regions. We argue for similar spatial extents for the flux in lines with similar profiles. Here, as well as in a modeling-oriented companion paper, we develop further an idea suggested by Moore & Cohen that objects that do and do not show line width correlations with IP/n(sub cr) can both be explained in terms of a single NLR model with only a small difference in the cloud column density distinguishing the two types of object. Overall, our objects do not show correlations between the Full Width at Half-Maximum (FWHM) and IP and/or n(sub cr). The width must be defined by a parameter that is sensitive to extended profile wings in order for the correlations to result. We present models in which FWHM correlations with IP and/or n(sub cr) result only after simulating the lower spectral resolution used in previous observational studies. The models that simulate the higher spectral resolution of our observational study produce line width correlations only if the width is defined by a parameter that is more sensitive to extended profile wings than is the FWHM. Our sample of six objects is in effect augmented by incorporating the larger sample (16 objects) of Veilleux into some of our discussion. This paper focuses on new interpretations of NLR emission-line spectra and line profiles that stem directly from the observations. Paper 2 focuses on modeling and complements this paper by illustrating explicitly the effects that spatial variations in electron density, ionization parameter, and column density have on model profiles. By comparing model profiles with the observed profiles presented here, as well as with those presented by Veilleux, Paper 2 yields insight into how the electron density, ionization parameter, and column density likely vary throughout the NLR.

Moore, David↗

DOE OSTI2024

Weather Sensitive High Spatio-Temporal Resolution Transportation Electric Load Profiles For Multiple Decarbonization Pathways

Electrification of transport compounded with climate change will transform hourly load profiles and their response to weather. We present a novel approach to generating hourly electric load profiles that considers charging strategies and evolving sensitivity to temperature. The approach consists of downscaling annual state-scale sectoral load projections from the multisectoral Global Change Analysis Model (GCAM) into hourly electric load profiles leveraging high resolution climate and population datasets. Profiles are developed and evaluated at the Balancing Authority scale, with a 5-year increment until 2050 over the Western U.S. Interconnect for multiple decarbonization pathways and climate scenarios. The datasets are readily available for production cost model analysis. Our open source approach is transferable to other regions.

Decarbonization, tranportation, Electric vehicle c↗