SEARCH · Engineering Papers

Results for “Sensitivity and Uncertainty Analysis”

Search indexed NASA NTRS and DOE OSTI research on propulsion, heat transfer, battery materials and energy systems. Follow report and document links to the original sources.

SourceResearch connectionFrom yearThrough year

Quote a phrase for an exact phrase match. Source license links do not imply unrestricted reuse.

At least 73 records · Page 4

All sources NASA NTRS DOE OSTI

NASA NTRS2007

A Risk-Based Approach for Aerothermal/TPS Analysis and Testing

The current status of aerothermal and thermal protection system modeling for civilian entry missions is reviewed. For most such missions, the accuracy of our simulations is limited not by the tools and processes currently employed, but rather by reducible deficiencies in the underlying physical models. Improving the accuracy of and reducing the uncertainties in these models will enable a greater understanding of the system level impacts of a particular thermal protection system and of the system operation and risk over the operational life of the system. A strategic plan will be laid out by which key modeling deficiencies can be identified via mission-specific gap analysis. Once these gaps have been identified, the driving component uncertainties are determined via sensitivity analyses. A Monte-Carlo based methodology is presented for physics-based probabilistic uncertainty analysis of aerothermodynamics and thermal protection system material response modeling. These data are then used to advocate for and plan focused testing aimed at reducing key uncertainties. The results of these tests are used to validate or modify existing physical models. Concurrently, a testing methodology is outlined for thermal protection materials. The proposed approach is based on using the results of uncertainty/sensitivity analyses discussed above to tailor ground testing so as to best identify and quantify system performance and risk drivers. A key component of this testing is understanding the relationship between the test and flight environments. No existing ground test facility can simultaneously replicate all aspects of the flight environment, and therefore good models for traceability to flight are critical to ensure a low risk, high reliability thermal protection system design. Finally, the role of flight testing in the overall thermal protection system development strategy is discussed.

Wright, Michael J.↗

NASA NTRS1999

Pressure Sensitive Paints

This article reviews new advances and applications of pressure sensitive paints in aerodynamic testing. Emphasis is placed on important technical aspects of pressure sensitive paint including instrumentation, data processing, and uncertainty analysis.

Liu, Tianshu↗

NASA NTRS2001

Tropospheric Ozone Near-Nadir-Viewing IR Spectral Sensitivity and Ozone Measurements from NAST-I

Infrared ozone spectra from near nadir observations have provided atmospheric ozone information from the sensor to the Earth's surface. Simulations of the NPOESS Airborne Sounder Testbed-Interferometer (NAST-I) from the NASA ER-2 aircraft (approximately 20 km altitude) with a spectral resolution of 0.25/cm were used for sensitivity analysis. The spectral sensitivity of ozone retrievals to uncertainties in atmospheric temperature and water vapor is assessed in order to understand the relationship between the IR emissions and the atmospheric state. In addition, ozone spectral radiance sensitivity to its ozone layer densities and radiance weighting functions reveals the limit of the ozone profile retrieval accuracy from NAST-I measurements. Statistical retrievals of ozone with temperature and moisture retrievals from NAST-I spectra have been investigated and the preliminary results from NAST-I field campaigns are presented.

Zhou, Daniel K.↗

NASA NTRS2002

Uncertainty Analysis of the Single-Vector Force Balance Calibration System

This paper presents an uncertainty analysis of the Single-Vector Force Balance Calibration System (SVS). This study is focused on the uncertainty involved in setting the independent variables during the calibration experiment. By knowing the uncertainty in the calibration system, the fundamental limits of the calibration accuracy of a particular balance can be determined. A brief description of the SVS mechanical system is provided. A mathematical model is developed to describe the mechanical system elements. A sensitivity analysis of these parameters is carried out through numerical simulations to assess the sensitivity of the total uncertainty to the elemental error sources. These sensitivity coefficients provide valuable information regarding the relative significance of the elemental sources of error. An example calculation of the total uncertainty for a specific balance is provided. Results from this uncertainty analysis are specific to the Single-Vector System, but the approach is broad in nature and therefore applicable to other measurement and calibration systems.

Parker, Peter A.↗

NASA NTRS2014

Uncertainty Analysis for the Miniaturized Laser Heterodyne Radiometer (mini-LHR)

Presented here is a sensitivity analysis for the miniaturized laser heterodyne radiometer (mini-LHR). This passive, ground-based instrument measures carbon dioxide (CO2) in the atmospheric column and has been under development at NASA/GSFC since 2009. The goal of this development is to produce a low-cost, easily-deployable instrument that can extend current ground measurement networks in order to (1) validate column satellite observations, (2) provide coverage in regions of limited satellite observations, (3) target regions of interest such as thawing permafrost, and (4) support the continuity of a long-term climate record. In this paper an uncertainty analysis of the instrument performance is presented and compared with results from three sets of field measurements. The signal-to-noise ratio (SNR) and corresponding uncertainty for a single scan are calculated to be 329.4+/-1.3 by deploying error propagation through the equation governing the SNR. Reported is an absorbance noise of 0.0024 for 6 averaged scans of field data, for an instrument precision of approximately 0.2 ppmv for CO2.

carbon dioxide (CO2)↗

NASA NTRS1980

Solar energy system economic evaluation: IBM System 4, Clinton, Mississippi

An economic analysis of the solar energy system was developed for five sites, typical of a wide range of environmental and economic conditions in the continental United States. The analysis was based on the technical and economic models in the F-chart design procedure, with inputs based on the characteristic of the installed system and local conditions. The results are of the economic parameters of present worth of system cost over a 20 year time span: life cycle savings, year of positive savings and year of payback for the optimized solar energy system at each of the analysis sites. The sensitivity of the economic evaluation to uncertainties in constituent system and economic variables is also investigated.

Source record↗

NASA NTRS1980

Solar energy system economic evaluation for IBM System 3, Glendo, Wyoming

This analysis was based on the technical and economic models in f-chart design procedures with inputs based on the characteristics of the parameters of present worth of system cost over a projected twenty year life: life cycle savings, year of positive savings, and year of payback for the optimized solar energy system at each of the analysis sites. The sensitivity of the economic evaluation to uncertainties in constituent system and economic variables was also investigated.

Source record↗

NASA NTRS1980

Solar energy system economic evaluation for Seeco Lincoln, Lincoln, Nebraska

The economic analysis of the solar energy system that was installed at Lincoln, Nebraska is developed for this and four other sites typical of a wide range of environmental and economic conditions in the continental United States. This analysis is accomplished based on the technical and economic models in the f chart design procedure with inputs based on the characteristics of the installed system and local conditions. The results are expressed in terms of the economic parameters of present worth of system cost over projected twenty year life: life cycle savings, year of positive savings and year of payback for the optimized solar energy system at each of the analysis sites. The sensitivity of the economic evaluation to uncertainties in constituent system and economic variables is also investigated.

Source record↗

NASA NTRS1980

Solar energy system economic evaluation for Solaron Akron, Akron, Ohio

The economic analysis of the solar energy system that was installed at Akron, Ohio is developed for this and four other sites typical of a wide range of environmental and economic conditions. The analysis is accomplished based on the technical and economic models in the f chart design procedure with inputs based on the characteristics of the installed parameters of present worth of system cost over a projected twenty year life: life cycle savings, year of positive savings and year of payback for the optimized solar energy system at each of the analysis sites. The sensitivity of the economic evaluation to uncertainties in constituent system and economic variables is also investigated. Results show that only in Albuquerque, New Mexico, where insolation is 1828 Btu/sq ft/day and the conventional energy cost is high, is this solar energy system marginally profitable.

Source record↗

NASA NTRS2016

Cis-Lunar Reusable In-Space Transportation Architecture for the Evolvable Mars Campaign

Human exploration missions to Mars or other destinations in the solar system require large quantities of propellant to enable the transportation of required elements from Earth's sphere of influence to Mars. Current and proposed launch vehicles are incapable of launching all of the requisite mass on a single vehicle; hence, multiple launches and in-space aggregation are required to perform a Mars mission. This study examines the potential of reusable chemical propulsion stages based in cis-lunar space to meet the transportation objectives of the Evolvable Mars Campaign and identifies cis-lunar propellant supply requirements. These stages could be supplied with fuel and oxidizer delivered to cis-lunar space, either launched from Earth or other inner solar system sources such as the Moon or near Earth asteroids. The effects of uncertainty in the model parameters are evaluated through sensitivity analysis of key parameters including the liquid propellant combination, inert mass fraction of the vehicle, change in velocity margin, and change in payload masses. The outcomes of this research include a description of the transportation elements, the architecture that they enable, and an option for a campaign that meets the objectives of the Evolvable Mars Campaign. This provides a more complete understanding of the propellant requirements, as a function of time, that must be delivered to cis-lunar space. Over the selected sensitivity ranges for the current payload and schedule requirements of the 2016 point of departure of the Evolvable Mars Campaign destination systems, the resulting propellant delivery quantities are between 34 and 61 tonnes per year of hydrogen and oxygen propellant, or between 53 and 76 tonnes per year of methane and oxygen propellant, or between 74 and 92 tonnes per year of hypergolic propellant. These estimates can guide future propellant manufacture and/or delivery architectural analysis.

McVay, Eric S.↗

NASA NTRS1986

Solution of nonlinear finite difference ocean models by optimization methods with sensitivity and observational strategy analysis

The paper studies with finite difference nonlinear circulation models the uncertainties in interesting flow properties, such as western boundary current transport, potential and kinetic energy, owing to the uncertainty in the driving surface boundary condition. The procedure is based upon nonlinear optimization methods. The same calculations permit quantitative study of the importance of new information as a function of type, region of measurement and accuracy, providing a method to study various observing strategies. Uncertainty in a model parameter, the bottom friction coefficient, is studied in conjunction with uncertain measurements. The model is free to adjust the bottom friction coefficient such that an objective function is minimized while fitting a set of data to within prescribed bounds. The relative importance of the accuracy of the knowledge about the friction coefficient with respect to various kinds of observations is then quantified, and the possible range of the friction coefficients is calculated.

Schroeter, Jens↗

NASA NTRSDate not supplied

Stability Analysis of the Flow Over a Swept Forward-Facing Step Using PIV Base Flows

Step excrescences are a type of surface imperfection encountered on swept wings of commercial aircraft, commonly because accessibility requirements prevent creating the wing’s surface from a single panel. If the step height is too large, super-critical, the flow can undergo an early transition to turbulence, which can be highly detrimental for the performance of the wing. In the case of a forward-facing step on a swept wing in a low-disturbance environment, stationary crossflow vortices can develop a significant amplitude upstream of the step and hence dominate the structure of the boundary-layer flow over the step. The main goal of the present investigation is to illuminate the path to transition supported by the fascinatingly complex flow field in the direct downstream vicinity of a step with a super critical height. The high-resolution, stereographic Particle Image Velocimetry (PIV) measurement dataset presently available for this flow field provides a complete description of the laminar flow for the execution of BiGlobal stability analysis in a plane parallel to the step. Although the notorious sensitivity of stability results to the description of the base flow demands a very careful uncertainty analysis of those results, it is argued that this very fact can be leveraged to produce new insight into the supported perturbation dynamics. In performing the analysis, several unsteady mode families are discovered that display the explosive perturbation expected for early transition to be induced. In considering domain widths equal to an integer-multiple of the incident crossflow-vortex wavelength and analyzing an extent of 5 crossflow-vortex wavelengths parallel to the step, it is found that the stability results converge while increasing the domain width. It is demonstrated, moreover, that the results for the wider domains can be approximated by appropriately averaging the results on neighboring single-crossflow-vortex-wavelength domains covering the same region. Besides being useful for computational purposes, this observed property suggests interpreting the instability mechanism as a distorted primary mechanism rather than a “proper” secondary mechanism. This follows in the context of the secondary in-stability analysis of three-dimensional boundary layers, because the secondary mechanism is usually characterized by being localized in a pocket of strong shear, while the distorted primary mechanism typically has an infinite support in the direction parallel to the step. Even though the growth rates are found to be sensitive to the interrogation-window size inherent to the PIV post-processing procedure, the spatial structure of the eigenfunctions is found to be relatively insensitive. Lastly, the spatial structure of the eigenfunctions corresponding to all velocity components are matched with the shape functions determined by computing the Spectral Proper Orthogonal Decomposition (SPOD) of a time-resolved measurement of the perturbation content.

forward-facing step↗

NASA NTRS1991

Small-scale fluctuations of the X-ray background

Fluctuations of the diffuse X-ray background are investigated using the Einstein Observatory Deep Survey data. Small angular-scale variations of the numbers of counts in the energy range 0.8-3.5 keV in the central 32 x 32 sq arcmin of the IPC are analyzed by means of the two-point correlation function. It is shown that detector modulation contributes substantially to the observed fluctuations. Instrumental effects are estimated and subtracted from the raw observations. The residual fluctuations are used to estimate the log N-log S relation of the X-ray sources below the Einstein sensitivity limit. Taking into account numerous uncertainties involved in this analysis, it is shown that the amplitude of fluctuations observed in the Deep Survey data is consistent with a relatively small number of sources producing the X-ray background.

Soltan, A. M.↗

NASA NTRS1990

Space system operations and support cost analysis using Markov chains

This paper evaluates the use of Markov chain process in probabilistic life cycle cost analysis and suggests further uses of the process as a design aid tool. A methodology is developed for estimating operations and support cost and expected life for reusable space transportation systems. Application of the methodology is demonstrated for the case of a hypothetical space transportation vehicle. A sensitivity analysis is carried out to explore the effects of uncertainty in key model inputs.

Unal, Resit↗

NASA NTRS1999

Noise Certification Predictions for FJX-2-Powered Aircraft Using Analytic Methods

Williams International Co. is currently developing the 700-pound thrust class FJX-2 turbofan engine for the general Aviation Propulsion Program's Turbine Engine Element. As part of the 1996 NASA-Williams cooperative working agreement, NASA agreed to analytically calculate the noise certification levels of the FJX-2-powered V-Jet II test bed aircraft. Although the V-Jet II is a demonstration aircraft that is unlikely to be produced and certified, the noise results presented here may be considered to be representative of the noise levels of small, general aviation jet aircraft that the FJX-2 would power. A single engine variant of the V-Jet II, the V-Jet I concept airplane, is also considered. Reported in this paper are the analytically predicted FJX-2/V-Jet noise levels appropriate for Federal Aviation Regulation certification. Also reported are FJX-2/V-Jet noise levels using noise metrics appropriate for the propeller-driven aircraft that will be its major market competition, as well as a sensitivity analysis of the certification noise levels to major system uncertainties.

Berton, Jeffrey J.↗

NASA NTRS1982

Turbulence measurements in a confined jet using a six-orientation hot-wire probe technique

The six-orientation hot-wire technique is applied to nonreacting axisymmetric flowfields, obtaining measurements of time-mean and rms voltages at six different orientations, thus providing enough information to determine the time-mean velocities, turbulence intensities, and shear stresses. At each location in the flow, there are six different values of each of the above quantities that can be obtained using six sets of measurements of three adjacent orientations. Flowfield surveys of both swirling and nonswirling confined jets are used to calculate estimates of the mean velocity components and the normal and shear turbulent stresses, and comparisons with independent data are made. A sensitivity analysis of the data reduction technique demonstrates that the largest uncertainties are to be expected in the turbulent shear force estimates.

Janjua, S. I.↗

NASA NTRSDate not supplied

Uncertainty Quantification of Classical Theories of Dendritic Growth Kinetics Applied to Nickel-Based Alloys

The solidification velocity in a model nickel-alloy single crystal during laser spot melting was recently characterized using synchrotron X-ray imaging. The measured solidification velocity was found to exceed the absolute stability threshold predicted by the Kurz-Giovanola-Trivedi (KGT) model. The discrepancies between the model and experiments motivate the further assessment of accurate material properties. This work quantifies the impact material property uncertainty has on model predictions of the absolute stability threshold velocities. Properties from the literature are reviewed and compared to those calculated using computational thermodynamics to provide uncertainty estimates on input properties to the KGT model. Global sensitivity analysis is used to quantify the influence of each uncertain input property on the predicted threshold velocity. This work supports the understanding of the nickel-alloy solidification during powder bed fusion additive manufacturing and identifies the solidification material properties that are the most important to assess from first-principles computations and experiments.

Computational thermodynamics↗

NASA NTRS1987

Advanced probabilistic method of development

Advanced structural reliability methods are utilized on the Probabilistic Structural Analysis Methods (PSAM) project to provide a tool for analysis and design of space propulsion system hardware. The role of the effort at the University of Arizona is to provide reliability technology support to this project. PSAM computer programs will provide a design tool for analyzing uncertainty associated with thermal and mechanical loading, material behavior, geometry, and the analysis methods used. Specifically, reliability methods are employed to perform sensitivity analyses, to establish the distribution of a critical response variable (e.g., stress, deflection), to perform reliability assessment, and ultimately to produce a design which will minimize cost and/or weight. Uncertainties in the design factors of space propulsion hardware are described by probability models constructed using statistical analysis of data. Statistical methods are employed to produce a probability model, i.e., a statistical synthesis or summary of each design variable in a format suitable for reliability analysis and ultimately, design decisions.

Wirsching, P. H.↗