SEARCH · Engineering Papers
Results for “Scenario planning”
Search indexed NASA NTRS and DOE OSTI research on propulsion, heat transfer, battery materials and energy systems. Follow report and document links to the original sources.
Quote a phrase for an exact phrase match. Source license links do not imply unrestricted reuse.
National Transmission Planning Study - Chapter 5: Stress Analysis for 2035 Scenarios
The National Transmission Planning Study (NTP Study) is presented as a collection of six chapters, each of which is listed next. The NTP Study was led by the U.S. Department of Energy's Grid Deployment Office, in partnership with the National Renewable Energy Laboratory and Pacific Northwest National Laboratory. Chapter 5: Stress Analysis for 2035 Scenarios (this chapter) outlines how the future transmission expansions perform under stress tests.
Considering Climate Change Scenarios in Site Resilience Planning
This paper was prepared in support of the U.S. Department of Energy’s Federal Energy Management Program. The paper serves as a resource for site-level personnel who are performing energy and water resilience planning at their sites and who need to identify and incorporate data that may help them assess risks to infrastructure and operations as a result of future climate change impacts. Specifically, the paper is a high-level look at available scenarios of future climate that can be incorporated into assessments based on U.S. regional models.
The National Transmission Planning Study: Chapter 5: Stress Analysis for 2035 Scenarios
The National Transmission Planning Study (NTP Study) was led by the U.S. Department of Energy's Grid Deployment Office, in partnership with the National Renewable Energy Laboratory and Pacific Northwest National Laboratory. The study sought to develop new national grid-scale planning tools and methods that can be used by industry, especially when planning for interregional transmission capacity needs; identify potential transmission solutions that will provide broad-scale benefits to electric customers under a wide range of potential futures; inform planning processes for regional and interregional transmission; and identify interregional and national strategies to maintain grid reliability as the grid transitions, including to a reliance on low- and zero-carbon energy resources. The NTP Study is presented as a collection of six chapters.
Generating Sequential PV Deployment Scenarios for High Renewable Distribution Grid Planning
This paper introduces a novel approach for generating solar photovoltaic (PV) plant deployment scenarios for grid integration planning. The approach guarantees consistency among scenarios of the same deployment by ensuring that higher penetration scenarios contain PV units deployed in lower penetration scenarios. It also constrains the size and spatial distribution of the PV plants and considers three placement types. A case study on a real-world distribution system proves that the precepts of scenario consistency, deployment diversity, and placement are met. The study further investigates the impact of the resulting scenarios via a stochastic hosting capacity analysis. Results indicate that the ratio between PV and load sizes, referred to as the nodal PV penetration factor (NPPF), is a key driver of the grid integration impact. By reducing the NPPF from 5 to 2, the maximum hosting capacity increased by at least 112%. The study also reveals that scenarios under random placement can lead to higher hosting capacity values.
Generating Sequential PV Deployment Scenarios for High Renewable Distribution Grid Planning: Preprint
This paper introduces a novel approach for generating solar photovoltaic (PV) plant deployment scenarios for grid integration planning. The approach guarantees consistency among scenarios of the same deployment by ensuring that higher penetration scenarios contain PV units deployed in lower penetration scenarios. It also constrains the size and spatial distribution of the PV plants and considers three placement types. A case study on a real-world distribution system proves that the precepts of scenario consistency, deployment diversity, and placement are met. The study further investigates the impact of the resulting scenarios via a stochastic hosting capacity analysis. Results indicate that the ratio between PV and load sizes, referred to as the nodal PV penetration factor (NPPF), is a key driver of the grid integration impact. By reducing the NPPF from 5 to 2, the maximum hosting capacity increased by at least 112%. The study also reveals that scenarios under random placement can lead to higher hosting capacity values.
Planning for "What If" Scenarios
Interval Logic Corporation is a graduate of the Ames Technology Commercialization Center (Ames Research Center's business incubator). The founders are the developers of the Spike Scheduling system, the most successful scheduling technology ever developed for NASA. This software was used to double the operational efficiency of the Hubble Space Telescope. Today the software is called Leverage and used to optimize all levels of semiconductor manufacturing.
The National Transmission Planning Study: Chapter 3: Transmission Portfolios and Operations for 2035 Scenarios
The National Transmission Planning Study (NTP Study) was led by the U.S. Department of Energy's Grid Deployment Office, in partnership with the National Renewable Energy Laboratory and Pacific Northwest National Laboratory. The study sought to develop new national grid-scale planning tools and methods that can be used by industry, especially when planning for interregional transmission capacity needs; identify potential transmission solutions that will provide broad-scale benefits to electric customers under a wide range of potential futures; inform planning processes for regional and interregional transmission; and identify interregional and national strategies to maintain grid reliability as the grid transitions, including to a reliance on low- and zero-carbon energy resources. The NTP Study is presented as a collection of six chapters.
The National Transmission Planning Study: Chapter 4: AC Power Flow Analysis for 2035 Scenarios
The National Transmission Planning Study (NTP Study) was led by the U.S. Department of Energy's Grid Deployment Office, in partnership with the National Renewable Energy Laboratory and Pacific Northwest National Laboratory. The study sought to develop new national grid-scale planning tools and methods that can be used by industry, especially when planning for interregional transmission capacity needs; identify potential transmission solutions that will provide broad-scale benefits to electric customers under a wide range of potential futures; inform planning processes for regional and interregional transmission; and identify interregional and national strategies to maintain grid reliability as the grid transitions, including to a reliance on low- and zero-carbon energy resources. The NTP Study is presented as a collection of six chapters.
Working Group 1: Current plans of various organisations for lunar activities
Summaries of presentations by representatives of several space agencies and the International Academy of Astronautics concerning lunar activities are presented. Participating space agencies reported two different types of lunar planning, long term planning and scenarios and lunar missions competing within regular programs. The long term plans of the various agencies look remarkably similar. They all involve a phased approach (coincidentally all incorporating four phases) and all address three prime scientific elements: science of, on, and from the Moon. The missions under consideration by the second group of agencies could readily fit as elements in the longer term program. There is great interest in lunar astronomy. There is a great deal of potential infrastructure and lunar transport capability already available. There is also a wide range of interesting technological developments that could form part of a lunar program. A well concerted and coordinated international effort could lead to an affordable program. Recommendations are: an international conference on lunar exploration should be held every other year; an electronic network should be established for the daily exchange of information; and a mechanism should be established for regular working level coordination of activities.
NASA Human Spaceflight Scenarios - Do All Our Models Still Say No?
Historically, NASA human spaceflight planning has included healthy doses of life cycle cost analysis. Planners put projects and their cost estimates in a budget context. Estimated costs became expected budgets. Regardless, real budgets rarely matched expectations. So plans would come and go as NASA canceled projects. New projects would arise and the cycle would begin again. Repeatedly, NASA schedule and performance ambitions come up against costs growing at double-digit rates while budgets barely rise a couple of percent a year. Significant skepticism greets proposed NASA programs at birth, as cost estimates for new projects are traditionally very high, and worse, far off the mark for those carried forward. In this environment the current "capability driven framework" for NASA human spaceflight evolved, where long term life cycle cost analysis are even viewed as possibly counter-productive. Here, a space exploration project, for example the Space Launch System, focuses on immediate goals. A life cycle is that of a project, not a program, and for only that span of time to a near term milestone like a first test launch. Unfortunately, attempting to avoid some pitfalls in long-term life cycle cost analysis breeds others. Government audits have noted that limiting the scope of cost analysis "does not provide the transparency necessary to assess long-term affordability" making it difficult to understand if NASA "is progressing in a cost-effective and affordable manner." Even in this short-term framework, NASA realizes the importance of long-term considerations, that it must "maximize the efficiency and sustainability of the Exploration Systems development programs", that this is "critical to free resources for re-investment...such as other required deep space exploration capabilities." Assuming the value of long-term life cycle cost analysis, where due diligence meets reconnaissance, and accepting past shortcomings, the work here approaches life cycle cost analysis for human spaceflight differently. 1) If costs have traditionally been so high that adding them up is discouraging, are there any new facts on the ground offering paths to significantly lower costs? 2) If NASA's spaceflight budget and process is an over-arching constraint, with its planning limitations favoring short-term outlooks, is there a way to step outside the budget box? 3) If life cycle answers have historically been too uncertain to be useful, is there a process where stakeholders gain valuable insights merely from emphasizing a common understanding around questions? We analyze the potential life cycle cost of assorted NASA human spaceflight architectures - an architecture as a sum of individual systems, working together. With the prior questions of high costs, limited budgets and uncertainties in mind, public private partnerships are central in these architectures. The cost data for current commercial public private partnerships is encouraging, as are cost estimates for future partnership approaches beyond low Earth orbit. Private capital, directly or indirectly, an ingredient of public private partnerships, may be a significant factor in finding a path around the limits of the NASA spaceflight budget. Also, understanding and reviewing the pros, cons and uncertainties of assorted architectures can assist in developing a common understanding around key questions as important if not more so than the numbers and answers. Lastly, a scenario planning technique is briefly explored that can mature a common understanding about the agencies situation at hand and how diverse stakeholders can go forward together. Scenario planning, rather than focusing on answers, places emphasis on stakeholders developing a common understanding about the future. Putting aside costs, this is especially true of questions about sustainability and growth, results, benefits and expectations. While efficiency exercises or analysis look to reduce resources in one place to apply them elsewhere, moving around slices in a pie, scenario planning can get at the heart of the matter, growing the pie, transforming it, and making the pieces relevant. Especially important is the question of sustainability for different scenarios in the broad sense of the word - not just the narrow ability to survive or continue, but also the ability to adapt, prosper and grow.
Space telescope observatory management system preliminary test and verification plan
The preliminary plan for the Space Telescope Observatory Management System Test and Verification (TAV) is provided. Methodology, test scenarios, test plans and procedure formats, schedules, and the TAV organization are included. Supporting information is provided.
Lipid Decontamination Procedures for Life Detection Missions
Molecular biosignatures are key targets for current, proposed, and future life detection missions. With the high accuracy and low limit of detection (LOD) that new and future instruments will require, decontamination of life detection hardware is necessary to prevent false positives. Lipids are a molecular biosignature of interest, as they are ubiquitous to all life as we know it, can survive unaltered in the geologic record for longer than any other biomolecule (i.e. billions of years), and form through both biotic and abiotic processes. Lipids display origin-diagnostic molecular patterns that can reveal biotic or abiotic synthesis, so finding them and ascertaining their molecular features is important for potentially detecting evidence of life elsewhere. Traditional methods of decontamination, or contamination control (CC), primarily clean hardware through fabrication in sterile (cleanroom) environments, killing microbes, and removing/flushing contaminants off instrument and spacecraft components. However, research suggests that some standard cleaning methods are either unlikely to remove lipid contaminants or are incompatible with life detection instrument materials. To solve this problem, I propose to find, test, and verify a decontamination method that thoroughly cleans instruments by destroying lipid molecules, but is simultaneously compatible with major materials used in these instruments. I will study the effects of traditional CC methods (including Dry Heat Microbial Reduction and Vapor phase Hydrogen Peroxide) and experimental CC methods (Electron Beam Irradiation) on lipid molecules for application to life detection instrumentation. I will then develop a CC plan for a novel lipid detector (ExCALiBR, Extractor for Chemical Analysis of Lipid Biomarkers in Regolith) searching for lipids in either soil or icy world scenarios. This plan will uphold planetary protection regulation requirements and validate experimental analyses of in-situ life detection tests.
Genesis Contingency Planning and Mishap Recovery: The Sample Curation View
Planning for sample preservation and curation was part of mission design from the beginning. One of the scientific objectives for Genesis included collecting samples of three regimes of the solar wind in addition to collecting bulk solar wind during the mission. Collectors were fabricated in different thicknesses for each regime of the solar wind and attached to separate frames exposed to the solar wind during specific periods of solar activity associated with each regime. The original plan to determine the solar regime sampled for specific collectors was to identify to which frame the collector was attached. However, the collectors were dislodged during the hard landing making identification by frame attachment impossible. Because regimes were also identified by thickness of the collector, the regime sampled is identified by measuring fragment thickness. A variety of collector materials and thin films applied to substrates were selected and qualified for flight. This diversity provided elemental measurement in more than one material, mitigating effects of diffusion rates and/or radiation damage. It also mitigated against different material and substrate strengths resulting in differing effects of the hard landing. For example, silicon crystal substrates broke into smaller fragments than sapphire-based substrates and diamond surfaces were more resilient to flying debris damage than gold. The primary responsibility of the curation team for recovery was process documentation. Contingency planning for the recovery phase expanded this responsibility to include not only equipment to document, but also gather, contain and identify samples from the landing area and the recovered spacecraft. The team developed contingency plans for various scenarios as part of mission planning that included topographic maps to aid in site recovery and identification of different modes of transport and purge capability depending on damage. A clean tent, set-up at Utah Test & Training Range to control the environment for processing the sample return capsule and cleanly installing a nitrogen purge to the canister, was used to control the environment for extracting collector fragments from the damaged canister and to document and package over 10,000 collector fragments.
Requirements, Resource Planning, and Management for Decrewing/Recrewing Scenarios of the International Space Station
Following the failure of 44 Progress (44P) on launch in August 2011, and the subsequent grounding of all Russian Soyuz rocket based launches, the International Space Station (ISS) ground teams engaged in an effort to determine how long the ISS could remain crewed, what would be required to safely configure the ISS for decrewing, and what would be required to recrew the ISS upon resumption of Soyuz rocket launches if decrewing became necessary. This White Paper was written to capture the processes and lessons learned from real-time time events and to provide a reference and training document for ISS Program teams in the event decrewing of the ISS is needed. Through coordination meetings and assessments, teams identified six decrewing priorities for ground and crew operations. These priorities were integrated along with preflight priorities through the Increment re-planning process. Additionally, the teams reviewed, updated, and implemented changes to the governing documentation for the configuration of the ISS for a contingency decrewing event. Steps were taken to identify critical items for disposal prior to decrewing, as well as identifying the required items to be strategically staged or flown with the astronauts and cosmonauts who would eventually recrew the ISS. After the successful launches and dockings of both 45P and 28 Soyuz (28S), the decrewing team transitioned to finalizing and publishing the documentation for standardizing the decrewing flight rules. With the continued launching of crews and cargo to the ISS, utilization and science is again a high priority; both Increment pairs 29 and 30, and Increment 31 and 32 reaching the milestone of at least 35 hours per week average utilization.
Data-driven profile prediction for DIII-D
A new, fully data-driven algorithm has been developed that uses neural networks to predict plasma pro les on a scale of τ E into the future given actuators and the present plasma state. The model was trained and tested on DIII-D data from the 2013-2018 experimental campaigns. The model is accurate on average, with q predictions the worst and pressure predictions the best. The model can run in milliseconds and is very simple to use. This makes it a potentially useful tool for operators and physicists when planning plasma scenarios. It also is a candidate for doing phase-space exploration without going through the DIIID database or complicated and computationally expensive simulation codes. Here, a reduced model using only realtime diagnostics has also been developed and formed the basis for a model-predictive control algorithm implemented and successfully tested on DIII-D.
Error field predictability and consequences for ITER
Abstract ITER coil tolerances are re-evaluated using the modern understanding of coupling to least-stable plasma modes and an updated center-line-traced model of ITER’s coil windings. This reassessment finds the tolerances to be conservative through a statistical, linear study of n = 1 error fields (EFs) due to tilted, shifted misplacements and nominal windings of central solenoid and poloidal field coils within tolerance. We also show that a model-based correction scheme remains effective even when metrology quality is sub-optimal, and compare this to projected empirical correction schemes. We begin with an analysis of the necessity of error field correction (EFC) for daily operation in ITER using scalign laws for the EF penetration threshold. We then consider the predictability of EF dominant mode overlap across early planned ITER scenarios and, as measuring EFs in high power scenarios can pose risks to the device, the potential for extrapolation to the ITER Baseline Scenario (IBS). We find that carefully designing a scenario matching currents proportionally to those of the IBS is far more important than plasma shape or profiles in accurately measuring an optimal correction current set.
Biosphere Futures: a database of social-ecological scenarios
T. Biosphere Futures (https://biospherefutures.net/) is a new online database to collect and discover scenario studies from across the world, with a specific focus on scenarios that explicitly incorporate interdependencies between humans and their supporting ecosystems. It provides access to a globally diverse collection of case studies that includes most ecosystems and regions, enabling exploration of the multifaceted ways in which the future might unfold. Together, the case studies illuminate the diversity and plurality of people’s expectations and aspirations for the future. The objective of Biosphere Futures is to promote the use of scenarios for sustainable development of the biosphere and to foster a community of practice around social-ecological scenarios. We do so by facilitating the assessment, synthesis, and comparative analysis of scenario case studies, pointing to relevant resources, and by helping practitioners and researchers to disseminate and showcase their own work. This article begins by outlining the rationale behind the creation of the database, followed by an introduction to its functionality and the criteria employed for selecting case studies. Subsequently, we present a synthesis of the first 100 case studies included in the scenarios database, highlighting emerging patterns and identifying potential avenues for further research. Finally, given that broader utilization and contributions to the database will enhance the achievement of Biosphere Futures’ objectives, we invite the creators of social-ecological scenarios to contribute additional case studies. By expanding the database’s breadth and depth, we can collectively foster a more nuanced understanding of the possible trajectories of our biosphere and enable better decision making for sustainable development.