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Risk Communications and Risk Mitigation

This topical report summarizes risk communications and risk treatment (a.k.a. mitigation) aspects of risk management workflow for the Southwest Regional Partnership on Carbon Sequestration (SWP) Phase III Demonstration Project, located near the community of Farnsworth in northernmost Texas. Detail on risk communications previously provided in an internal project report is summarized here, while detail on risk treatment is presented for the first time. A principal message is that the effective development and execution of risk treatments depends on effective communications among project staff. Farnsworth Project relied primarily on internal communications; in contrast, projects that also rely heavily on public approval will be relatively more dependent upon effective information sharing with external stakeholders. The report documents work undertaken for Tasks 7.4.2 and 7.4.3 of U.S. Department of Energy

29 ENERGY PLANNING, POLICY, AND ECONOMY↗

Practical CO2—WAG Field Operational Designs Using Hybrid Numerical-Machine-Learning Approaches

Machine-learning technologies have exhibited robust competences in solving many petroleum engineering problems. The accurate predictivity and fast computational speed enable a large volume of time-consuming engineering processes such as history-matching and field development optimization. The Southwest Regional Partnership on Carbon Sequestration (SWP) project desires rigorous history-matching and multi-objective optimization processes, which fits the superiorities of the machine-learning approaches. Although the machine-learning proxy models are trained and validated before imposing to solve practical problems, the error margin would essentially introduce uncertainties to the results. In this paper, a hybrid numerical machine-learning workflow solving various optimization problems is presented. By coupling the expert machine-learning proxies with a global optimizer, the workflow successfully solves the history-matching and CO2 water alternative gas (WAG) design problem with low computational overheads. The history-matching work considers the heterogeneities of multiphase relative characteristics, and the CO2-WAG injection design takes multiple techno-economic objective functions into accounts. This work trained an expert response surface, a support vector machine, and a multi-layer neural network as proxy models to effectively learn the high-dimensional nonlinear data structure. The proposed workflow suggests revisiting the high-fidelity numerical simulator for validation purposes. The experience gained from this work would provide valuable guiding insights to similar CO2 enhanced oil recovery (EOR) projects.

29 ENERGY PLANNING, POLICY, AND ECONOMY↗

Time-Lapse Integration at FWU: Fluids, Rock Physics, Numerical Model Integration, and Field Data Comparison

We present the current status of time-lapse seismic integration at the Farnsworth (FWU) CO2 WAG (water-alternating-gas) EOR (Enhanced Oil Recovery) project at Ochiltree County, northwest Texas. As a potential carbon sequestration mechanism, CO2 WAG projects will be subject to some degree of monitoring and verification, either as a regulatory requirement or to qualify for economic incentives. In order to evaluate the viability of time-lapse seismic as a monitoring method the Southwest Partnership (SWP) has conducted time-lapse seismic monitoring at FWU using the 3D Vertical Seismic Profiling (VSP) method. The efficacy of seismic time-lapse depends on a number of key factors, which vary widely from one application to another. Most important among these are the thermophysical properties of the original fluid in place and the displacing fluid, followed by the petrophysical properties of the rock matrix, which together determine the effective elastic properties of the rock fluid system. We present systematic analysis of fluid thermodynamics and resulting thermophysical properties, petrophysics and rock frame elastic properties, and elastic property modeling through fluid substitution using data collected at FWU. These analyses will be framed in realistic scenarios presented by the FWU CO2 WAG development. The resulting fluid/rock physics models will be applied to output from the calibrated FWU compositional reservoir simulation model to forward model the time-lapse seismic response. Modeled results are compared with field time-lapse seismic measurements and strategies for numerical model feedback/update are discussed. While mechanical effects are neglected in the work presented here, complementary parallel studies are underway in which laboratory measurements are introduced to introduce stress dependence of matrix elastic moduli.

4D↗

Blackbody curves for the IUE spectral range lambda 1150 to lamda 3200 from 6,000 to 200,000 K

Two sets of blackbody curves are presented for the wavelength region covering the international ultraviolet explorer spectrographs. One set is normalized to unity at 3200 A, the other is normalized at 1900 A for those astronomers primarily interested in data for the SWP range. The blackbody curves extend from 1150 to 3200 A and cover the temperature range from 6,000 to 200,000K.

Feibelman, W. A.↗

Observations of polar aurora on Jupiter

North-south spatial maps of Jupiter were obtained with the SWP camera in IUE observations of 10 December 1978, 19 May 1979, and 7 June 1979. Bright auroral emissions were detected from the north and south polar regions at H Ly alpha (1216 A) and in the H2 Lyman bands (1250-1608 A) on 19 May 1979; yet no enhanced polar emission was detected on the other days. The relationship between the IUE observing geometry and the geometry of the Jovian magnetosphere is discussed.

Lane, A. L.↗

IUE spectra of F and late A stars

The International Ultraviolet Explorer (IUE) spectra of alpha CMi (F5 IV-V), beta Cas (F2 IV), alpha Car (F0 Ib), and gamma Boo (A7 III) in the context of the question as to whether chromospheres disappear in the early F late A portions of the Hertzsprung-Russell diagram. Both alpha CMi (Procyon) and beta Cas show bright emission line spectra indicative of chromospheres and transition regions, but neither alpha Car (Canopus) nor gamma Boo show any evidence of emission in their SWP spectra or at the Mg II lines, despite very deep exposures. Alpha CMi has emission line fluxes roughly 6 times those of the quiet Sun, but the rapidly rotating delta Scuti type variable beta Cas has surface fluxes 10 to 50 times those of the quiet Sun. Upper limits on emission line fluxes for alpha Car are 4 to 20 and for gamma Boo 15 to 80 times the quiet Sun. It is concluded that the apparent absence of emission lines in the spectra of alpha Car and gamma Boo should not be interpreted as due to the absence of nonradiatively heated outer atmospheres in stars hotter than spectral type F0, but rather to the inability to see emission lines with IUE against a background of scattered light and a bright photospheric absorption line spectrum either in low or high dispersion.

Linsky, J. L.↗

Results of basic improvements to the extraction of spectra from IUE images

Results of two methods of extracting spectra from IUE images are compared. The first method, which is presently implemented, performs a geometric correction of the image followed by a photometric correction. The spectral data are then extracted using a slit with an effective width and sampling interval of 2.4A for the SWP camera and 3.7A for the LWR camera in low dispersion. The second method performs the photometric correction without doing a geometric correction. The spectral data are then extracted from the photometrically corrected image by an extraction slit, which follows the spectral orders in the nongeometrically corrected space, with an effective width and sampling interval 1/2 that of the present method.

Lindler, D. J.↗

Improvements to the accuracy of the IUE wavelength scales in high dispersion

The data base of Pt-Ne emission lines used to calibrate the IUE high dispersion wavelength scales was scrutinized to improve the internal consistency of the adopted laboratory wavelength values and provide a homogeneous, documented line list, which IUE Guest Observers may use to evaluate quantitatively those Pt-Ne spectra taken to calibrate their data. After deletion of incorrect or inappropriate data in the old data base (lines with incorrect wavelength assignments; lines which are too faint, too bright, or blended; lines which fall near reseau marks, etc.) and the addition of several new entries, a total of 172 Pt-Ne lines for the SWP camera and 164 Pt-Ne lines for the LWR camera are now used for routine wavelength calibration in the high dispersion mode.

Turnrose, B. E.↗

Effects of temperature fluctuations of IUE data quality

Analysis of IUE calibration lamp images shows that variation in the temperature of the scientific instrument causes shifts in the location of the spectral format with respect to the reseau grid on the detector and in the location of the reseaux themselves. In high dispersion, a camera head amplifier temperature difference of 6C corresponds to a shift of 4 pixels in the spectral format for LWR and 2 pixels for SWP along the dispersion direction. Shifts perpendicular to the disperson (for the same temperature difference) are less than one pixel for both cameras. In low dispersion spectra, the shifts are similar but orthogonal to those described above with the larger motion lying in the direction perpendicular to the dispersion. In both dispersion modes, the observed shifts are apparently independent of wavelength. In high dispersion, the constant pixel shift mimics a constant velocity error.

Thompson, R. W.↗

Quasi-simultaneous observations of BL Lac object Mrk 501 in X-ray, UV, visible, IR, and radio frequencies

Observations in the X-ray, UV, visible, IR and radio regions of the BL Lac object Mrk 501 made over the course of two months are reported. The measurements were made with the A2 experiment on HEAO 1 (X-ray), the SWP and LWR cameras on IUE (UV), the 5-m Hale telescope (visible), the 2.5-m telescope at Mount Wilson (IR), the NRAO 92-m radio telescope at Green Bank (4750 MHz) and the 46-m radio telescope at the Algonquin Observatory (10275 and 10650 MHz). The quasi-simultaneously observed spectral slope is found to be positive and continuous from the X-ray to the UV, but to gradually flatten and possibly turn down from the mid-UV to the visible; the optical-radio emission cannot be accounted for by a single power law. The total spectrum is shown to be compatible with a synchrotron self-Compton emission mechanism, while the spectrum from the visible to the X-ray is consistent with synchrotron radiation or inverse-Compton scattering by a hot thermal electron cloud. The continuity of the spectrum from the UV to the X-ray is noted to imply a total luminosity greater than previous estimates by a factor of 3-4.

Kondo, Y.↗

Simultaneous X-ray, ultraviolet, optical, and radio observations of the flare star Proxima Centauri

Results of coordinated program of observations in the X-ray, UV, optical and radio regions of the dM5e flare star Proxima Centauri are presented. Simultaneous observations of the star were obtained on March 6 and March 7, 1979, by the Einstein Observatory IPC, the IUE SWP and LWR cameras at low dispersion, three ground-based optical telescopes in Australia and the Parkes 64-m radio telescope. A total of 10 radio bursts and six optical flares was detected during three nights of simultaneous radio and optical observations, which appear to be broadly correlated. A major X-ray flare event was detected with temperatures of 1.7 x 10 to the 7th and 1.2 x 10 to the 7th K during the rise and decay phases, respectively, respective X-ray fluxes of 3.0 x 10 to the -11th and 3.7 x 10 to the -11th ergs/sq cm per sec, and changes in spectral flux distribution. No radio, optical or UV flare emission corresponding to the X-ray flare was detected. The X-ray flare is interpreted in terms of an arch model with cooling predominantly by X-ray radiation, with an electron density of 1.0 x 10 to the 11th/cu cm during the decay phase and a total arch length comparable to the size of the star itself. The X-ray flare observed is thus more similar to a typical strong solar flare than heretofore seen on a flare star.

Haisch, B. M.↗

The IUE echelle blaze function

An improved form for the echelle blaze function derived by Ake (1981) was used to study the apparent variation of grating constant K with order m for the long and short wavelength spectrographs. For the LWR camera, early images indicate that K should vary linearly with order. It is suggested that this represents a rotation of the observed blaze centers on the camera compared to a constant K=m lambda line. In four years of use, changes in sensitivity across the camera changed the observed blaze function, inducing a curvature in the K versus m relation. This curvature varies in time with variations in camera response. The SWP camera shows these effects to a lesser degree.

Ake, T. B.↗

High dispersion observations of selected regions in the Orion Nebula

High resolution spectral observations were made of several regions of the Orion Nebula near theta (2) Ori A using the IUE. The positions were selected using a moderate spatial resolution map from a previous low dispersion IUE survery of this section of the nebula. With the SWP and LWR cameras, 28 pectra were obtained of the bright bar, three Taylor-Munch cloudlets, and several surrounding locations. Emission lines of He, C, N, O, Mg, and Si allow a characterization of these cloudlets and of the gas in and around the bar. Small aperture observations provide radial velocity information for the ultraviolet emission of these features. These data show ionization variations from region to region and are suggestive of stellar wind interactions between the cloudlets and theta(2) Ori A.

Boeshaar, G. O.↗

IUE observations of reflection nebulae

Low-resolution IUE spectra in the SWP and LWR ranges were obtained of several reflection nebulae in the vicinity of their respective illuminating stars. Data for NGC 7023 (HD200775), NGC 1435 (Merope, 23 Tau), NGC 1432 (Maia, 20 Tau) and the Electra (17 Tau) nebula were found to display significant differences in the shape of their normalized nebular spectra. If the dust in these nebulae is similar from one object to the next, these differences can be most readily explained by differences in the line-of-sight dust distribution, coupled with a wavelength-dependent phase function, changing from a strongly forward throwing form (g = 0.6-0.7) in the visible to a more nearly isotropic shape (g approximately 0.25) at 1400A.

Witt, A. N.↗

Analysis of non-interacting binaries with luminous cool primaries

High dispersion long wave redundant (LWR) spectra are analyzed for the differential velocity between hot and cool components of heretofore single lined spectroscopic binaries with late type giant or supergiant primaries. Cross correlation of a composite spectrum against early and late type standard stars yields relative velocities with an accuracy of 0.2 to 0.3 kms. When the orbit of the primay is known, the differential measurement from IUE gives the mass ratio of the system. Low dispersion short wave prime (SWP) and LWR flux spectra are used together with ground-based photometry to disentangle the composite energy distributions of the binaries. Temperatures of both components, their relative luminosities, and the reddening of the system are obtained. Assuming the hot secondaries to be main sequence stars, their probable luminosities and masses may be obtained from their temperatures. Then absolute magnitudes and masses may be obtained for the evolved primaries with more confidence than with existing techniques.

Parsons, S. B.↗

The peculiar, luminous early-type emission line stars of the Magellanic clouds: A preliminary taxonomy

A sample of some 20 early type emission supergiants in the Magellanic clouds was observed with both the SWP and LWR low resolution mode of IUE. All stars have strong H-emission, some showing P-Cygni structure as well with HeI, HeII, FeII and other ions also showing strong emission. It is found that the stars fall into three distinct groups on the basis of the HeII/HeI and HeI/HI strengths: (1) HeII strong, HeI, HI; (2) HeII absent, HeI, HI strong; (3) HeI absent, HI, FeII, FeII, strong in addition to low excitation ions. The two most extreme emission line stars found in the Clouds S 134/LMC and S 18/SMC are discussed. Results for the 2200A feature in these supergiants, and evidence for shells around the most luminous stars in the clouds are also described.

Shore, S. N.↗

Ultraviolet observations of nova Aquila, 1982

A bright nova in Aquila was discovered with a visual magnitude of 6 to 7. A number LWR and SWP spectra of the object were obtained with the IUE. The nova has a heavily reddened spectrum, E(B-V)= 0.55 + or - 0.15, and a complex shot wavelength spectrum with both narrow emission features and broad absorption troughs, indicating terminal velocities as high as 10,000 km/s. Both the continuum flux and the absorption line profiles changed between two observations. Short period variations were also observed.

Snijders, M. A. J.↗

IUE data reduction - The parameterization of the motion of the IUE reseau grids and spectral formats as a function of time and temperature

Improvements are made on IUE data reduction using corrected reseau positions and dispersion constants for temperature variations and secular effects. Models describing the motion of the high dispersion spectral format as a function of THDA alone reduce the scatter in the predicted position of a given wavelength, and scatter is further reduced when a linear dependence on time is also allowed. A correction technique is presented for early data which reduces errors in wavelength assignments from over 30 km/s to less than 3 km/s in high dispersion. The reseau temperature correction helps locate the minimum background signal, centered between the echelle orders. The residual uncertainty of 2 km/s for SWP and 2.7 km/s for LWR makes the wavelength accuracy of time and temperature corrected IUE spectra comparable to that of temperature corrected data from the Copernicus satellite.

Thompson, R. W.↗