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At least 73 records · Page 4

Radiation, Atherosclerotic Risk Factors, and Stroke Risk in Survivors of Pediatric Cancer: A Report From the Childhood Cancer Survivor Study

Purpose: To test the hypotheses that (1) the increased risk of stroke conferred by childhood cranial radiation therapy (CRT) persists into adulthood; and (2) atherosclerotic risk factors further increase the stroke risk in cancer survivors. Methods and Materials: The Childhood Cancer Survivor Study is a multi-institutional retrospective cohort study of 14,358 5-year survivors of childhood cancer and 4023 randomly selected sibling controls with longitudinal follow-up. Age-adjusted incidence rates of self-reported late-occurring (≥5 years after diagnosis) first stroke were calculated. Multivariable Cox proportional hazards models were used to identify independent stroke predictors. Results: During a mean follow-up of 23.3 years, 292 survivors reported a late-occurring stroke. The age-adjusted stroke rate per 100,000 person-years was 77 (95% confidence interval [CI] 62-96), compared with 9.3 (95% CI 4-23) for siblings. Treatment with CRT increased stroke risk in a dose-dependent manner: hazard ratio 5.9 (95% CI 3.5-9.9) for 30-49 Gy CRT and 11.0 (7.4-17.0) for 50+ Gy CRT. The cumulative stroke incidence in survivors treated with 50+ Gy CRT was 1.1% (95% CI 0.4-1.8%) at 10 years after diagnosis and 12% (95% CI 8.9-15.0%) at 30 years. Hypertension increased stroke hazard by 4-fold (95% CI 2.8-5.5) and in black survivors by 16-fold (95% CI 6.9-36.6). Conclusion: Young adult pediatric cancer survivors have an increased stroke risk that is associated with CRT in a dose-dependent manner. Atherosclerotic risk factors enhanced this risk and should be treated aggressively.

62 RADIOLOGY AND NUCLEAR MEDICINE↗

Probabilistic risk assessment of the Space Shuttle. Phase 3: A study of the potential of losing the vehicle during nominal operation. Volume 5: Auxiliary shuttle risk analyses

Volume 5 is Appendix C, Auxiliary Shuttle Risk Analyses, and contains the following reports: Probabilistic Risk Assessment of Space Shuttle Phase 1 - Space Shuttle Catastrophic Failure Frequency Final Report; Risk Analysis Applied to the Space Shuttle Main Engine - Demonstration Project for the Main Combustion Chamber Risk Assessment; An Investigation of the Risk Implications of Space Shuttle Solid Rocket Booster Chamber Pressure Excursions; Safety of the Thermal Protection System of the Space Shuttle Orbiter - Quantitative Analysis and Organizational Factors; Space Shuttle Main Propulsion Pressurization System Probabilistic Risk Assessment, Final Report; and Space Shuttle Probabilistic Risk Assessment Proof-of-Concept Study - Auxiliary Power Unit and Hydraulic Power Unit Analysis Report.

Fragola, Joseph R.↗

Risk Assessment and Integration Team (RAIT) Portfolio Risk Analysis Strategy

Impact at management level: Qualitative assessment of risk criticality in conjunction with risk consequence, likelihood, and severity enable development of an "investment policy" towards managing a portfolio of risks. Impact at research level: Quantitative risk assessments enable researchers to develop risk mitigation strategies with meaningful risk reduction results. Quantitative assessment approach provides useful risk mitigation information.

Edwards, Michelle↗

2013 Immune Risk Standing Review Panel Research Plan Review for: The Risk of Crew Adverse Health Event Due to Altered Immune Response

The 2013 Immune Risk Standing Review Panel (from here on referred to as the SRP) participated in a meeting with representatives from the Human Research Program (HRP) Human Health Countermeasures (HHC) Element and HRP management on February 3-4, 2014 in Houston, TX to review the updated Research Plan for the Risk of Crew Adverse Health Event Due to Altered Immune Response in the HRP Integrated Research Plan. The SRP is impressed with the work the immune discipline has done since the 2012 SRP review and agrees with the new wording of the Gaps, no longer questions, now statements. The SRP also likes the addition of adding targets for closing the Gaps, but it is not clear how they got to some of the interim stages (interval percentages). A major concern that the SRP has mentioned since the initial 2009 SRP meeting is that there is still not enough emphasis on the interdisciplinary aspect of the immune risk associated with other risks (i.e., nutrition, radiation, etc.). The SRP recommends that a "translational SRP" or advisory group be developed that is composed of members from all of the HRP SRPs. The SRP also thinks that the immune discipline should consider a more systems biology approach. Lastly, the SRP is concerned that the risks observed in research from low Earth orbit (LEO) missions may not accurately reflect all the risks of longer duration flight beyond LEO. Also, there does not seem to be a concern for immune responses that may occur when someone is in space longer than six months, for example, a Mars mission would take three years. The absence of disease in past and current flight scenarios does not mean the risk may not be there in future flight settings.

Steinberg, Susan↗

Evaluation of the spaceflight cardiovascular risk using the clinical prediction model Astro-CHARM and the NASA Radiation Risk Model

- Exposure to space radiation may pose a risk for cardiovascular diseases (CVD) during and after spaceflight. - The CVD risk should be quantified to plan future long-duration space missions such as the manned flight to Mars. - Assessing CVD risk is complicated by its multifactorial nature, where an individual’s risk is strongly influenced by risk factors such as family history, blood pressure, and lipid profiles. - In the NASA Space Radiation Risk Model, the metrics of radiation exposure-induced cases (REIC) and radiation exposure-induced death (REID) are used to quantify the risk attributable to radiation over a lifetime after exposure.

Ianik Plante↗

Risk of Impaired Performance Due to Reduced Muscle Mass, Strength &, Endurance (Short Title: Muscle) and Risk of Reduced Physical Performance Capabilities Due to Reduced Aerobic Capacity (Short Title: Aerobic)

This report reviews the scientific literature regarding the human system risks to the microgravity environment of space flight in relation to human performance. The primary human performance-related risks involve deconditioning of the cardiovascular and skeletal muscles systems due to prolonged exposure to the reduced gravitational input. The chronological history of U.S. space flight is reviewed as a starting point to inform and understand the gaps in the knowledge to these risks. Maintenance of physical performance capabilities involves understanding the health of many organ systems (peripheral [vascular, heart, blood volume, skeletal muscle] and central [brain]) that ultimately contribute to the submaximal and maximal capacity of the aerobic (VO2peak), skeletal muscle (strength and endurance) systems. Maintaining astronaut VO2peak, muscle mass, strength, and endurance before, during, and after space flight is a significant priority to NASA for the current International Space Station (ISS) era, as well as for future exploration missions. A growing research database from both space flight and ground-based analog studies finds that the cardiorespiratory system is compromised and skeletal muscles (predominantly postural muscles of the lower limbs) undergo atrophy. These structural and metabolic responses to living in microgravity conditions contribute to physiological deconditioning during space flight that potentially increase the risks to astronauts returning to surface operations (i.e., Moon, Mars, or Earth). The time course changes from short to long-duration space flight and the relationships between in-flight performance deconditioning levels are not well characterized. Moreover, there are large interindividual variabilities that may be dependent on genetics, age, sex, preflight fitness levels, and individual exercise prescriptions that need further careful evaluations. Efforts should be made to understand the current status of preflight, in-flight, and postflight exercise performance capability and to define the operational goals and target areas for protection with the in-flight exercise program. There is a bi-directional relationship between exercise prescription and hardware countermeasures that need further understanding in-flight. For example, hardware with limited capabilities/modalities may be counterbalanced by changes in exercise prescription (i.e., frequency, time, intensity, volume) for providing effective responses to maintain fitness. Importantly, the minimal requirements for exercise prescription on ISS hardware may not translate to lower capability hardware on exploration missions. Due to limited volume on exploration vehicles, future Artemis missions to the Lunar surface will not have similar exercise hardware capabilities as ISS. This may alter the effectiveness of hardware to provide adequate physiological stress on bodily systems allowing for adaptations to maintain aerobic capacity, strength, and bone density. Thus, it will be important to understand the exercise responses of current ISS countermeasures to develop individualized exercise prescriptions that minimize aerobic and muscular risks, accounting for the large variability of responses among crewmembers. Newer exploration exercise hardware is currently being evaluated that is more compact (i.e., E4D and Orion Flywheel) and will require careful evaluation of the hardware on the stressor (i.e., metabolic rate, oxygen uptake, and heart rate work relationships, and force plate load profiles) needed the human body to protect and maintain crew health and performance. Moreover, exercise responses on the hardware need careful evaluation on the chronic adaptations. Lastly, in-flight evaluation of hardware exercise response may differ in 0-g or partial-g compared to 1-g. Therefore, it cannot be assumed that the stress on the body will be the same in each environment. Understanding this has a direct impact on exercise prescriptions. This document provides an overview of key scientific investigations that have been conducted before, during, and after human space flight missions, as well as from human ground-based analog studies that contribute to the evidence base on changes in aerobic capacity and muscle mass, strength, and endurance. Additional data from rodent and nonhuman primate experiments of skeletal muscle unloading completed during space flight or ground-based flight-simulations provide supportive information about this risk topic. Most importantly, a recent, large dataset from long-duration ISS crew has been added to give improved insight into the variability of exercise response of crew, demonstrating that a large portion of the crew population return to Earth with greater than 10-20% loss of aerobic capacity and muscle strength and endurance. Data from human space flight and ground-based studies are narrowing in on the required exercise paradigms but thus far still provide an incomplete answer to an effective approach for maintaining skeletal muscle function and aerobic fitness of all human space travelers. Finally, the relationship of this risk topic to various space flight operational scenarios is examined and discussed.

Eric Rivas↗

Strategy for Risk Quantification of Spaceflight Crew Health and Performance Using Dynamic Probabilistic Risk Assessment

At NASA, the Crew Health and Performance (CHP) system represents the span of countermeasures, capabilities, interventions, and tested processes and procedures that in combination work to mitigate the human component of spaceflight mission risk. Across the varying NASA mental models of the CHP system, the different functionalities needed to meet human flight systems standards can be broken down into specific categories (i.e. medical capability, environmental health, behavioral health). These categories can be further broken down into specific subgroups generally associated with the CHP functionalities meant to mitigate or buy down individual human system risks. Taking a similar development approach we seek to leverage dynamic probabilistic risk assessment as a means to quantify and relatively assess the human risk state within the crew health and performance domain. By utilizing existing tools as integrators, we propose a rapid development strategy for incorporating research and operational data that represent the influence of the CHP system functionalities, in order to provide order of magnitudes estimates of the influence on most human system risks outcomes. The model system utilizes a modest cumulative risk approach and that limits the scope to primary paths of influence between the CHP functionalities and human system risks, thus enabling quick prototypes of the integrative effects of CHP functional combinations to solicit valuable feedback from stakeholders and customers on the data, relationship, and structure of the integration.

Drayton Munster↗

Trial Implementation of a Multihazard Risk Assessment Framework for High-Impact Low-Frequency Power Grid Events

The Pacific Northwest National Laboratory developed a risk framework for modeling high-impact, low-frequency power grid events to support risk-informed decisions. In this research article, we briefly recap the framework and demonstrate its implementation for seismic and geomagnetic hazards using a benchmark reliability test system. We describe integration of a collection of models implemented to perform hazard analysis, fragility evaluation, consequence estimation and post-event restoration. We demonstrate the value of the framework as a multi-hazard power grid risk assessment and management tool. The research will benefit transmission planners and emergency planners by improving their ability to maintain a resilient grid infrastructure against impacts from major events.

power grid, risk assessment, seismic hazard, dynam↗

Writing Good Risk Statements and Critical Thinking in Risk

The term risk is used ubiquitously in the space community, but more often than not it is used in a counterproductive way. Furthermore, risks are often written to convey some type of concern, but the risk statements are often more emotional in nature than technically substantive. In this talk, we will provide a rigorous view and definition of risk, along with some structured guidelines for writing risk statements centered on critical thinking, which will combine to provide effective risk management tools when dealing with complex space systems.

risk↗

Environmental Risk Evaluation System – An Approach to Ranking Risk of Ocean Energy Development on Coastal and Estuarine Environments

Deployment and operation of ocean energy devices does not represent the first foray into industrialization of the oceans; shipping, nearshore development, waste disposal, subsea mining, oil and gas extraction, and large-scale commercial fishing all coexist in various states of equilibrium with the marine environment. In most cases these industries were developed without a clear understanding of the likely outcomes of large-scale development. In virtually every country where the harvest of ocean energy is emerging, regulators and stakeholders require that the industry examine potential effects of devices, minimize the footprint of effects, and provide management measures that either avoid the impacts or mitigate to further reduce the residual impacts. The ERES analysis is based on scenarios that are consistent with sequences of events that lead to adverse impacts, distinguishing between episodic, intermittent, and chronic risks. In the context of ocean energy development, an episodic scenario might involve the exceedingly rare but potentially devastating event of an oil spill from vessels caused by the presence of the device, while vulnerable receptors are present; understanding the risk of such a scenario involves determining the probability of the occurrence by examining factors such as the petroleum content of ocean energy devices, the vessel traffic volume and the proximity of shipping lanes to the ocean energy devices, the reliability of the control measures to avoid an episodic event, and the likely presence of seabirds, marine mammals, or fish that may be affected by oil. In contrast, chronic risk scenarios involve events or circumstances that are continuous, so that risk characterization involves assessing only the severity of the consequences. An example of a chronic risk scenario might be the toxicity to marine organisms due to low-level chemical releases from anti-biofouling paints and coatings that may be used on devices, and the effect that the level of toxicity may have on marine flora and fauna. Between these two extremes are intermittent events, such as encounters between fish and rotating tidal turbine blades that will occur only when fish are present and the tidal device is turning. A key feature of understanding risk is describing the uncertainty associated with the occurrence of an episodic, intermittent, or chronic event, as well as the uncertainty of the resulting consequences.

ocean energy↗

Potential Chemical Impacts of CO2 Leakage on Underground Source of Drinking Water Assessed by Quantitative Risk Analysis

Many geologic carbon storage site options include not only excellent storage reservoirs bounded by effective seal layers, but also Underground Sources of Drinking Water (USDWs). An effective risk assessment and mitigation plan provides maximum protection for USDWs, to respect not only current policy but also to accommodate likely future USDW-specific regulatory protections. The goal of this study is to quantify possible risks to USDWs, specifically risks associated with chemical impacts on USDWs. Reactive transport models involve tremendous computational expense. Therefore, a secondary purpose of this study is to develop, calibrate and test reduced order models specifically for assessing risks of USDW chemical impacts by CO2 leakage from a storage reservoir. In order to achieve these goals, a geochemical model was developed to interpret changes in water chemistry following CO2 intrusion. A response surface methodology (RSM) based on these geochemical simulations was used to quantify associated risks. The case study example for this analysis is the Ogallala aquifer overlying the Farnsworth unit (FWU), an active commercial-scale CO2-enhanced oil recovery field. Specific objectives of this study include: (1) to understand how CO2 leakage is likely to influence geochemical processes in aquifer sediments; (2) to quantify potential risks to the Ogallala groundwater aquifer due to CO2 leakage from the FWU oil reservoir; and (3) to identify water chemistry factors for early detection criteria. Results indicate that the leakage rate would most likely range between 10-14 – 10-10 kg/(m2·year) for typical and likely leakage pathway permeability ranges. Within this range of CO2 leakage rate, groundwater quality is not likely to be significantly impacted. The worst-case scenario yields trace metal concentrations approximately twice as much as the initial value, but these predicted concentrations are still less than one-fifth of regulation-stipulated maximum contamination levels and do not exceed the no-impact thresholds. Finally, the results of this analysis suggest that pH may be an effective geochemical indicator of CO2 leakage.

CO2 leakage, USDWs, Groundwater quality, Risk anal↗

A risk-based approach to evaluating the Area of Review and leakage risks at CO 2 storage sites

The U.S. Environmental Protection Agency’s Class VI regulations for underground carbon dioxide (CO 2 ) injection require owners and operators of storage projects to identify (1) an Area of Review (AoR) that represents the region that may be affected by the injection of CO 2 , and (2) leakage risks that might impact the quality of underground sources of drinking water (USDWs). This article describes how such risks can be determined by accounting for the physical and chemical properties of all components of a CO 2 storage site using elements of the National Risk Assessment Partnership Integrated Assessment Model for Carbon Storage (NRAP-IAM-CS). For this work we used practical data from three sites that are part of two CarbonSAFE (Carbon Storage Assurance Facility Enterprise) projects to demonstrate application of the NRAP-IAM-CS toolset to determine project risk areas. NRAP-IAM-CS was used to estimate the project risk area that could represent the AoR and the impact of leakage through legacy wells to overlying drinking waters at these candidate CO 2 storage sites. Our study shows that risk to USDWs is minimal despite (1) the presence of multiple legacy wells at these sites where the AoR approximates the maximum extent of injected CO 2 or (2) the presence of a much larger AoR approximating the pressure front caused by the injection of CO 2 .

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

Advancing Risk Analysis for Nanoscale Materials: Report from an International Workshop on the Role of Alternative Testing Strategies for Advancement: Advancing Risk Analysis for Nanoscale Materials

The Society for Risk Analysis (SRA) has a history of bringing thought leadership to topics of emerging risk. In September 2014, the SRA Emerging Nanoscale Materials Specialty Group convened an international workshop to examine the use of alternative testing strategies (ATS) for manufactured nanomaterials (NM) from a risk analysis perspective. Experts in NM environmental health and safety, human health, ecotoxicology, regulatory compliance, risk analysis, and ATS evaluated and discussed the state of the science for in vitro and other alternatives to traditional toxicology testing for NM. Based on this review, experts recommended immediate and near-term actions that would advance ATS use in NM risk assessment. Three focal areas-human health, ecological health, and exposure considerations-shaped deliberations about information needs, priorities, and the next steps required to increase confidence in and use of ATS in NM risk assessment. The deliberations revealed that ATS are now being used for screening, and that, in the near term, ATS could be developed for use in read-across or categorization decision making within certain regulatory frameworks. Participants recognized that leadership is required from within the scientific community to address basic challenges, including standardizing materials, protocols, techniques and reporting, and designing experiments relevant to real-world conditions, as well as coordination and sharing of large-scale collaborations and data. Experts agreed that it will be critical to include experimental parameters that can support the development of adverse outcome pathways. Numerous other insightful ideas for investment in ATS emerged throughout the discussions and are further highlighted in this article.

36 MATERIALS SCIENCE↗

Increasing extreme hourly precipitation risk for New York City after Hurricane Ida

The remnants of Hurricane Ida caused major damage and death in the United States on September 1st, 2021, and 11 people drowned in flooded basement apartments within New York City (NYC). It was catastrophic because the maximum hourly precipitation intensity, recorded as 3.47 inches (88.1 mm) per hour at Central Park, was unprecedentedly high for the NYC region. The stormwater infrastructure in NYC is built for 1.75 inches (44.5 mm) per hour, and so understanding the dynamic risk associated with Ida can inform city planning efforts for climate change’s impact on short duration extreme precipitation events. We contextualize this storm’s record-breaking hourly intensity within the historical record as well as project its risk in the near- to medium-term future using nonstationary stochastic models. These models are conditioned on average temperature (T avg ) and cooling degree day (CDD) projections from three climate models as a covariate, each with a SSP 126 and SSP 370 scenario. The likelihood of such a storm was slowly increasing even before Ida happened, but the projected aggregate reoccurrence risk of an event of Ida’s magnitude over time from the non-stationary models ranges from 4 to 52 times higher than the risk given by the stationary model. Using CDD as a covariate resulted in risks that were more than twice the magnitude than when using T avg . Presenting both covariates provides a broader envelope of uncertainty, which highlights the importance and nuances in the choice of a regionally appropriate covariate for non-stationary risk analysis.

Mossel, Carolien↗