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All sourcesNASA NTRSDOE OSTI
DOE OSTI2024

Describing patterns of familial cancer risk in subfertile men using population pedigree data

STUDY QUESTION Can we simultaneously assess risk for multiple cancers to identify familial multicancer patterns in families of azoospermic and severely oligozoospermic men? SUMMARY ANSWER Here, distinct familial cancer patterns were observed in the azoospermia and severe oligozoospermia cohorts, suggesting heterogeneity in familial cancer risk by both type of subfertility and within subfertility type. WHAT IS KNOWN ALREADY Subfertile men and their relatives show increased risk for certain cancers including testicular, thyroid, and pediatric. STUDY DESIGN, SIZE, DURATION A retrospective cohort of subfertile men (N = 786) was identified and matched to fertile population controls (N = 5674). Family members out to third-degree relatives were identified for both subfertile men and fertile population controls (N = 337 754). The study period was 1966–2017. Individuals were censored at death or loss to follow-up, loss to follow-up occurred if they left Utah during the study period. PARTICIPANTS/MATERIALS, SETTING, METHODS Azoospermic (0 × 10 6 /mL) and severely oligozoospermic (<1.5 × 10 6 /mL) men were identified in the Subfertility Health and Assisted Reproduction and the Environment cohort (SHARE). Subfertile men were age- and sex-matched 5:1 to fertile population controls and family members out to third-degree relatives were identified using the Utah Population Database (UPDB). Cancer diagnoses were identified through the Utah Cancer Registry. Families containing ≥10 members with ≥1 year of follow-up 1966–2017 were included (azoospermic: N = 426 families, 21 361 individuals; oligozoospermic: N = 360 families, 18 818 individuals). Unsupervised clustering based on standardized incidence ratios for 34 cancer phenotypes in the families was used to identify familial multicancer patterns; azoospermia and severe oligospermia families were assessed separately. MAIN RESULTS AND THE ROLE OF CHANCE Compared to control families, significant increases in cancer risks were observed in the azoospermia cohort for five cancer types: bone and joint cancers hazard ratio (HR) = 2.56 (95% CI = 1.48–4.42), soft tissue cancers HR = 1.56 (95% CI = 1.01–2.39), uterine cancers HR = 1.27 (95% CI = 1.03–1.56), Hodgkin lymphomas HR = 1.60 (95% CI = 1.07–2.39), and thyroid cancer HR = 1.54 (95% CI = 1.21–1.97). Among severe oligozoospermia families, increased risk was seen for three cancer types: colon cancer HR = 1.16 (95% CI = 1.01–1.32), bone and joint cancers HR = 2.43 (95% CI = 1.30–4.54), and testis cancer HR = 2.34 (95% CI = 1.60–3.42) along with a significant decrease in esophageal cancer risk HR = 0.39 (95% CI = 0.16–0.97). Thirteen clusters of familial multicancer patterns were identified in families of azoospermic men, 66% of families in the azoospermia cohort showed population-level cancer risks, however, the remaining 12 clusters showed elevated risk for 2-7 cancer types. Several of the clusters with elevated cancer risks also showed increased odds of cancer diagnoses at young ages with six clusters showing increased odds of adolescent and young adult (AYA) diagnosis [odds ratio (OR) = 1.96–2.88] and two clusters showing increased odds of pediatric cancer diagnosis (OR = 3.64–12.63). Within the severe oligozoospermia cohort, 12 distinct familial multicancer clusters were identified. All 12 clusters showed elevated risk for 1–3 cancer types. An increase in odds of cancer diagnoses at young ages was also seen in five of the severe oligozoospermia familial multicancer clusters, three clusters showed increased odds of AYA diagnosis (OR = 2.19–2.78) with an additional two clusters showing increased odds of a pediatric diagnosis (OR = 3.84–9.32). LIMITATIONS, REASONS FOR CAUTION Although this study has many strengths, including population data for family structure, cancer diagnoses and subfertility, there are limitations. First, semen measures are not available for the sample of fertile men. Second, there is no information on medical comorbidities or lifestyle risk factors such as smoking status, BMI, or environmental exposures. Third, all of the subfertile men included in this study were seen at a fertility clinic for evaluation. These men were therefore a subset of the overall population experiencing fertility problems and likely represent those with the socioeconomic means for evaluation by a physician. WIDER IMPLICATIONS OF THE FINDINGS This analysis leveraged unique population-level data resources, SHARE and the UPDB, to describe novel multicancer clusters among the families of azoospermic and severely oligozoospermic men. Distinct overall multicancer risk and familial multicancer patterns were observed in the azoospermia and severe oligozoospermia cohorts, suggesting heterogeneity in cancer risk by type of subfertility and within subfertility type. Describing families with similar cancer risk patterns provides a new avenue to increase homogeneity for focused gene discovery and environmental risk factor studies. Such discoveries will lead to more accurate risk predictions and improved counseling for patients and their families. STUDY FUNDING/COMPETING INTEREST(S) This work was funded by GEMS: Genomic approach to connecting Elevated germline Mutation rates with male infertility and Somatic health (Eunice Kennedy Shriver National Institute of Child Health and Human Development (NICHD): R01 HD106112). The authors have no conflicts of interest relevant to this work.

60 APPLIED LIFE SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2022

Large Scale Study of Ligand–Protein Relative Binding Free Energy Calculations: Actionable Predictions from Statistically Robust Protocols

The accurate and reliable prediction of protein–ligand binding affinities can play a central role in the drug discovery process as well as in personalized medicine. Of considerable importance during lead optimization are the alchemical free energy methods that furnish an estimation of relative binding free energies (RBFE) of similar molecules. Recent advances in these methods have increased their speed, accuracy, and precision. This is evident from the increasing number of retrospective as well as prospective studies employing them. However, such methods still have limited applicability in real-world scenarios due to a number of important yet unresolved issues. Here, we report the findings from a large data set comprising over 500 ligand transformations spanning over 300 ligands binding to a diverse set of 14 different protein targets which furnish statistically robust results on the accuracy, precision, and reproducibility of RBFE calculations. We use ensemble-based methods which are the only way to provide reliable uncertainty quantification given that the underlying molecular dynamics is chaotic. These are implemented using TIES (Thermodynamic Integration with Enhanced Sampling). Results achieve chemical accuracy in all cases. Ensemble simulations also furnish information on the statistical distributions of the free energy calculations which exhibit non-normal behavior. We find that the “enhanced sampling” method known as replica exchange with solute tempering degrades RBFE predictions. We also report definitively on numerous associated alchemical factors including the choice of ligand charge method, flexibility in ligand structure, and the size of the alchemical region including the number of atoms involved in transforming one ligand into another. Our findings provide a key set of recommendations that should be adopted for the reliable application of RBFE methods.

37 INORGANIC, ORGANIC, PHYSICAL, AND ANALYTICAL CH↗
DOE OSTI2019

Perioperative Gemcitabine + Erlotinib Plus Pancreaticoduodenectomy for Resectable Pancreatic Adenocarcinoma: ACOSOG Z5041 (Alliance) Phase II Trial

Background: There is considerable interest in a neoadjuvant approach for resectable pancreatic ductal adenocarcinoma (PDAC). This study evaluated perioperative gemcitabine + erlotinib (G+E) for resectable PDAC. Methods: A multicenter, cooperative group, single-arm, phase II trial was conducted between April 2009 and November 2013 (ACOSOG Z5041). Patients with biopsy-confirmed PDAC in the pancreatic head without evidence of involvement of major mesenteric vessels (resectable) were eligible. Patients (n = 123) received an 8-week cycle of G+E before and after surgery. The primary endpoint was 2-year overall survival (OS), and secondary endpoints included toxicity, response, resection rate, and time to progression. Resectability was assessed retrospectively by central review. The study closed early due to slow accrual, and no formal hypothesis testing was performed. Results: Overall, 114 patients were eligible, consented, and initiated protocol treatment. By central radiologic review, 97 (85%) of the 114 patients met the protocol-defined resectability criteria. Grade 3+ toxicity was reported in 60% and 79% of patients during the neoadjuvant phase and overall, respectively. Twenty-two of 114 (19%) patients did not proceed to surgery; 83 patients (73%) were successfully resected. R0 and R1 margins were obtained in 67 (81%) and 16 (19%) resected patients, respectively, and 54 patients completed postoperative G+E (65%). The 2-year OS rate for the entire cohort (n = 114) was 40% (95% confidence interval [CI] 31–50), with a median OS of 21.3 months (95% CI 17.2–25.9). The 2-year OS rate for resected patients (n = 83) was 52% (95% CI 41–63), with a median OS of 25.4 months (95% CI 21.8–29.6). Conclusions: For resectable PDAC, perioperative G+E is feasible. Further evaluation of neoadjuvant strategies in resectable PDAC is warranted with more active systemic regimens.

62 RADIOLOGY AND NUCLEAR MEDICINE↗
DOE OSTI2024

Electronic Visualization Laboratory's 50th Anniversary Retrospective: Look to the Future, Build on the Past

September 2023 marks the 50th anniversary of the Electronic Visualization Laboratory (EVL) at University of Illinois Chicago (UIC). EVL's introduction of the CAVE Automatic Virtual Environment in 1992, the first widely replicated, projection-based, walk-in, virtual-reality (VR) system in the world, put EVL at the forefront of collaborative, immersive data exploration and analytics. However, the journey did not begin then. Since its founding in 1973, EVL has been developing tools and techniques for real-time, interactive visualizations—pillars of VR. But EVL's culture is also relevant to its successes, as it has always been an interdisciplinary lab that fosters teamwork, where each person's expertise contributes to the development of the necessary tools, hardware, system software, applications, and human interface models to solve problems. Over the years, as multidisciplinary collaborations evolved and advanced scientific instruments and data resources were distributed globally, the need to access and share data and visualizations while working with colleagues, local and remote, synchronous and asynchronous, also became important fields of study. This paper is a retrospective of EVL's past 50 years that surveys the many networked, immersive, collaborative visualization and VR systems and applications it developed and deployed, as well as lessons learned and future plans.

Johnson, Andrew E.↗
DOE OSTI2024

Association of post-COVID phenotypic manifestations with new-onset psychiatric disease

Acute COVID-19 infection can be followed by diverse clinical manifestations referred to as Post Acute Sequelae of SARS-CoV2 Infection (PASC). Studies have shown an increased risk of being diagnosed with new-onset psychiatric disease following a diagnosis of acute COVID-19. However, it was unclear whether non-psychiatric PASC-associated manifestations (PASC-AMs) are associated with an increased risk of new-onset psychiatric disease following COVID-19. A retrospective electronic health record (EHR) cohort study of 2,391,006 individuals with acute COVID-19 was performed to evaluate whether non-psychiatric PASC-AMs are associated with new-onset psychiatric disease. Data were obtained from the National COVID Cohort Collaborative (N3C), which has EHR data from 76 clinical organizations. EHR codes were mapped to 151 non-psychiatric PASC-AMs recorded 28–120 days following SARS-CoV-2 diagnosis and before diagnosis of new-onset psychiatric disease. Association of newly diagnosed psychiatric disease with age, sex, race, pre-existing comorbidities, and PASC-AMs in seven categories was assessed by logistic regression. There were significant associations between a diagnosis of any psychiatric disease and five categories of PASC-AMs with odds ratios highest for neurological, cardiovascular, and constitutional PASC-AMs with odds ratios of 1.31, 1.29, and 1.23 respectively. Secondary analysis revealed that the proportions of 50 individual clinical features significantly differed between patients diagnosed with different psychiatric diseases. Our study provides evidence for association between non-psychiatric PASC-AMs and the incidence of newly diagnosed psychiatric disease. Significant associations were found for features related to multiple organ systems. This information could prove useful in understanding risk stratification for new-onset psychiatric disease following COVID-19. Prospective studies are needed to corroborate these findings.

60 APPLIED LIFE SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2024

High dimensional predictions of suicide risk in 4.2 million US Veterans using ensemble transfer learning

We present an ensemble transfer learning method to predict suicide from Veterans Affairs (VA) electronic medical records (EMR). A diverse set of base models was trained to predict a binary outcome constructed from reported suicide, suicide attempt, and overdose diagnoses with varying choices of study design and prediction methodology. Each model used twenty cross-sectional and 190 longitudinal variables observed in eight time intervals covering 7.5 years prior to the time of prediction. Ensembles of seven base models were created and fine-tuned with ten variables expected to change with study design and outcome definition in order to predict suicide and combined outcome in a prospective cohort. The ensemble models achieved c-statistics of 0.73 on 2-year suicide risk and 0.83 on the combined outcome when predicting on a prospective cohort of ~4.2 M veterans. The ensembles rely on nonlinear base models trained using a matched retrospective nested case-control (Rcc) study cohort and show good calibration across a diversity of subgroups, including risk strata, age, sex, race, and level of healthcare utilization. In addition, a linear Rcc base model provided a rich set of biological predictors, including indicators of suicide, substance use disorder, mental health diagnoses and treatments, hypoxia and vascular damage, and demographics. Similar content being viewed by others

60 APPLIED LIFE SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2024

Prognostic analysis of high-flow nasal cannula therapy and non-invasive ventilation in mild to moderate hypoxemia patients and construction of a machine learning model for 48-h intubation prediction—a retrospective analysis of the MIMIC database

Background This study aims to investigate the clinical outcome between high-flow nasal cannula (HFNC) and non-invasive ventilation (NIV) therapy in mild to moderate hypoxemic patients on the first ICU day and to develop a predictive model of 48-h intubation. Methods The study included adult patients from the MIMIC III and IV databases who first initiated HFNC or NIV therapy due to mild to moderate hypoxemia (100 < PaO2/FiO2 ≤ 300). The 48-h and 30-day intubation rates were compared using cross-sectional and survival analysis. Nine machine learning and six ensemble algorithms were deployed to construct the 48-h intubation predictive models, of which the optimal model was determined by its prediction accuracy. The top 10 risk and protective factors were identified using the Shapley interpretation algorithm. Result A total of 123,042 patients were screened, of which, 673 were from the MIMIC IV database for ventilation therapy comparison (HFNC n = 363, NIV n = 310) and 48-h intubation predictive model construction (training dataset n = 471, internal validation set n = 202) and 408 were from the MIMIC III database for external validation. The NIV group had a lower intubation rate (23.1% vs. 16.1%, p = 0.001), ICU 28-day mortality (18.5% vs. 11.6%, p = 0.014), and in-hospital mortality (19.6% vs. 11.9%, p = 0.007) compared to the HFNC group. Survival analysis showed that the total and 48-h intubation rates were not significantly different. The ensemble AdaBoost decision tree model (internal and external validation set AUROC 0.878, 0.726) had the best predictive accuracy performance. The model Shapley algorithm showed Sequential Organ Failure Assessment (SOFA), acute physiology scores (APSIII), the minimum and maximum lactate value as risk factors for early failure and age, the maximum PaCO 2 and PH value, Glasgow Coma Scale (GCS), the minimum PaO 2 /FiO 2 ratio, and PaO 2 value as protective factors. Conclusion NIV was associated with lower intubation rate and ICU 28-day and in-hospital mortality. Further survival analysis reinforced that the effect of NIV on the intubation rate might partly be attributed to the other impact factors. The ensemble AdaBoost decision tree model may assist clinicians in making clinical decisions, and early organ function support to improve patients’ SOFA, APSIII, GCS, PaCO 2 , PaO 2 , PH, PaO 2 /FiO 2 ratio, and lactate values can reduce the early failure rate and improve patient prognosis.

Fu, Wei↗
DOE OSTI2023

Prevalence of Self-Reported Bothersome Tinnitus in U.S. Army Soldiers From January 1, 2015, Through September 30, 2019

Purpose: Tinnitus is a symptom of auditory dysfunction or injury and can be a precursor to permanent hearing loss. Tinnitus can interfere with communication, sleep, concentration, and mood; when this occurs, it is referred to as bothersome tinnitus. Annual hearing surveillance in the U.S. Army includes screening for bothersome tinnitus. Estimating the prevalence of self-reported bothersome tinnitus can facilitate prioritization of prevention and education efforts. The objective of this study was to examine Army hearing conservation data to estimate the prevalence of self-reported bothersome tinnitus as a function of age, hearing, sex, service component, and pay grade. Method: The study employed a cross-sectional, retrospective design. Records from 1,485,059 U.S. Army Soldiers retrieved from the Defense Occupational and Environmental Health Readiness System–Hearing Conservation were analyzed. Descriptive statistics and multinomial logistic regression analysis were used to estimate the prevalence of bothersome tinnitus and its associations with Soldiers' demographic characteristics. Results: The estimated prevalence of self-reported bothersome tinnitus was 17.1% between January 1, 2015, and September 30, 2019; 13.6% of the Soldiers reported “bothered a little” and 3.5% reported “bothered a lot.” Proportionally, the prevalence of self-reported bothersome tinnitus was higher for males, older Soldiers, and Reserve Component Soldiers. For every 1-year increase in age, the odds of self-reporting “bothered a little” tinnitus relative to “bothered not at all tinnitus” would be expected to increase by 2.2% (2.1%, 2.3%), and the odds of self-reporting “bothered a lot” tinnitus relative to “bothered not at all” tinnitus would be expected to increase by 3.6% (3.5%, 3.7%). Conclusions: The self-reported prevalence of bothersome tinnitus in the U.S. Army (17.1%) is substantially higher than that of the general population, where prevalence of bothersome tinnitus is estimated at 6.6%. Examination of bothersome tinnitus among Soldiers is an important step toward optimizing prevention, education, and intervention efforts.

Audiology & Speech-Language Pathology↗
DOE OSTI2022

Plasma Science: Enabling Technology, Sustainability, Security, and Exploration

The Plasma2020 decadal report took a forward-looking, interagency perspective on how the different elements that constitute plasma science provide a broad interdisciplinary driver for capitalizing on future opportunities in the scientific community. Goals of the study were to (1) provide a retrospective survey of the field of plasma science; (2) illustrate the vibrant connections that unify the field of plasma science; (3) offer a vision for future developments in plasma science, such as those related to organizational structure, program balance, and funding; (4) provide an assessment of the demographic characteristics and human resource development of the field, such as those related to workforce, educational, and other societal needs; and (5) make recommendations to balance the objectives of the field in a sustainable and healthy manner over the long term. The resulting report was composed in a style accessible to the non-scientist reader. With this approach, a broad audience can understand the importance of plasma science and what researchers in the field want to learn in the coming decades.

70 PLASMA PHYSICS AND FUSION TECHNOLOGY↗
DOE OSTI2021

Thermoluminescence and optically stimulated luminescence response of Al 2 O 3 coatings deposited by mist-chemical vapor deposition

Aluminum oxide (Al 2 O 3 ) is a widely used ceramic material which can be applied as a protective coating on metallic structures to improve corrosion resistance and mechanical properties. Al 2 O 3 also has great potential as a functional thin film device in optoelectronics. When it is doped with carbon (Al 2 O 3 :C), this material system can serve as a reliable radiation dosimeter. The combination of optoelectronic, dosimetric, and protective properties demonstrated by Al 2 O 3 uniquely positions it for dual use applications in nuclear forensics, nonproliferation and safeguards, emergency response, retrospective dosimetry, and nondestructive inspection. Here, in this study, an innovative ultrasonic mist-chemical vapor deposition (Mist-CVD) system was used to deposit thin (nm level) Al 2 O 3 coatings on 304 stainless steel substrates. The single aliquot regeneration (SAR) and additive dose reconstruction techniques were then used to investigate the thermoluminescence (TL) and optically stimulated luminescence (OSL) response of the coated substrates to increasing doses of β irradiation. This study demonstrates that nm-thick Al 2 O 3 coatings hold promise as novel nano-dosimeters which could be leveraged for a series of applications such as nonproliferation and safeguards, retrospective dosimetry, and nondestructive inspection.

38 RADIATION CHEMISTRY, RADIOCHEMISTRY, AND NUCLEA↗
DOE OSTI2022

Conducting more inclusive solar geoengineering research: A feminist science framework

Solar geoengineering, or deliberate climate modification, has been receiving increased attention in recent years. Given the far-reaching consequences of any potential solar geoengineering deployments, it is prudent to identify inherent biases, blind spots, and other potential issues at all stages of the research process. Here we articulate a feminist science-based framework to concretely describe how solar geoengineering researchers can be more inclusive of different perspectives and potentially contradictory conclusions, in the process illuminating potential implicit bias and enhancing the conclusions that can be gained from their studies. Importantly, this framework is an adoptable method of practice that can be refined, with the aim of conducting better research in solar geoengineering. As an illustration, we retrospectively apply this framework to a well-read solar geoengineering study (also led by the first author of this study), improving transparency by revealing its implicit values, conclusions made from its evidence base, and the methodologies that study pursues. We conclude here with a set of recommendations for the geoengineering research community whereby more inclusive research can become a regular part of practice. Throughout this process, we illustrate how feminist science scholars can use this approach to study climate modeling.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2021

Structural modification of fentanyls for their retrospective identification by gas chromatographic analysis using chloroformate chemistry

Abstract The one-step breakdown and derivatization of a panel of nine fentanyls to yield uniquely tagged products that can be detected by Electron Ionization Gas Chromatography-Mass Spectrometry (EI-GC-MS) is presented. The method involves the treatment of the synthetic opioids with 2,2,2-trichloroethoxycarbonyl chloride (TrocCl) at 60 °C for 3 h in dichloromethane and furnishes two products from one fentanyl molecule that can be used to retrospectively identify the original opioid. Parameters that were studied and fully optimized for the method included temperature, solvent, nature of scavenging base and reaction time. One of the two resulting products from the reaction bears the trichloroethoxycarbonyl (Troc) tag attached to the norfentanyl portion of the original opioid and greatly aids in the opioid detection and identification process. The methodology has been applied to the chemical modification of a panel of nine fentanyls and in all cases the molecular ion peak for the Troc-norfentanyl product bearing the distinctive trichloroethyl isotopic signature can be clearly observed. The method’s LLOD was determined to be 10 ng/mL while its LLOQ was found to be 20 ng/mL. This methodology represents the first application of chloroformates in the chemical modification of this class of synthetic opioids that are notoriously inert to common derivatization strategies available for GC–MS analysis.

37 INORGANIC, ORGANIC, PHYSICAL, AND ANALYTICAL CH↗
DOE OSTI2022

Patterns of Initial Relapse from a Phase 3 Study of Response-Based Therapy for High-Risk Hodgkin Lymphoma (AHOD0831): A Report from the Children's Oncology Group

The Children's Oncology Group protocol AHOD0831, for pediatric patients with high-risk classical Hodgkin lymphoma (cHL), used response-adapted radiation fields, rather than larger involved-field radiation therapy (IFRT) that were historically used. This retrospective analysis of patterns of relapse among patients enrolled in the study was conducted to study the potential effect of a reduction in RT exposure.

62 RADIOLOGY AND NUCLEAR MEDICINE↗
DOE OSTI2023

Safety and efficacy of peripheral nerve blocks to treat refractory headaches after aneurysmal subarachnoid hemorrhage – A pilot observational study

Objectives: Headache after aneurysmal subarachnoid hemorrhage (HASH) is common, severe, and often refractory to conventional treatments. Current treatment standards include medications including opioids, until the pain is mitigated. Peripheral nerve blocks (PNBs) may be an effective therapeutic option for HASH. We conducted a small before-and-after study of PNBs to determine safety, feasibility, and efficacy in treatment of HASH. Methods: We conducted a pilot before-and-after observational study and collected data for 5 patients in a retrospective control group and 5 patients in a prospective intervention PNB group over a 12-month period. All patients received a standard treatment of medications including acetaminophen, magnesium, gabapentin, dexamethasone and anti-spasmodics or anti-emetics as needed. Patients in the intervention group received bilateral greater occipital, lesser occipital, and supraorbital PNBs in addition to medications. The primary outcome was pain severity, measured by Numeric pain rating scale (NPRS). All patients were followed for 1 week following enrollment. Results: The mean ages in the PNB group and control group were 58.6 and 57.4, respectively. One patient in the control group developed radiographic vasospasm. Three patients in both groups had radiographic hydrocephalus and IVH, requiring external ventricular drain (EVD) placement. The PNB group had an average reduction in mean raw pain score of 2.76 (4.68, 1.92 p = 0.024), and relative pain score by 0.26 (0.48, 0.22 p = 0.026), compared to the control group. The reduction occurred immediately after PNB administration. Conclusion: PNB can be a safe, feasible and effective treatment modality for HASH. Further investigations with a larger sample size are warranted.

60 APPLIED LIFE SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2022

Thunderstorm Activity Under Intermediate and Extreme Climate Change Scenarios

Assessing how increasing greenhouse gas concentrations may modify regional climates is an ongoing challenge. Relatively little work has examined how climate change may influence processes related to regional thunderstorm activity. This is important to consider in areas where thunderstorms are important for maintaining regional hydroclimates. Here, this study focuses on three convection-allowing climate simulations—namely, a retrospective simulation (1990–2005) and two possible climate change scenarios (2085–2100)—with domains encompassing the conterminous United States. Regional and seasonal variability is noted in the response of thunderstorm activity as measured by thresholds in simulated radar reflectivity factor in the two climate change scenarios. A decrease in thunderstorm activity is projected for the Southern Plains, whereas the Southeast and Midwest experience an increase in thunderstorm activity. An examination of environmental parameters related to thunderstorm activity reveals an overall increase in convective instability but spatially varying changes in convective inhibition.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2023

Evaluating Multimodel Ensemble Seasonal Climate Forecasts on Rangeland Plant Production in the California Annual Grassland

Seasonal precipitation and temperature directly affect total plant production in the California Annual Grassland (CAG). Technological advances have resulted in skillful seasonal climate forecasts (i.e., significant correlations between actual and forecasted climate), which could be input into plant production models to inform stocking and other rangeland management decisions. This study presents a procedure for forecasting plant production in the CAG ecosystem to predict annual plant production for grazing, restoration, or other rangeland management practices using a combination of historical gridMET climate data and seasonal hindcasts (i.e., retrospective forecasts, from the North American Multi-Model Ensemble program). Further, the results of this study first confirmed high forecast skill, throughout the growing season at all sites. We also identified skillful plant production forecasts across most of the growing season at two sites and in three of the seven forecasting months at one study site. Forecasting climate and end-of-year plant production across the growing season at three CAG sites allowed us to identify the places and times in the growing season when forecasting might be most helpful in informing management decisions. Integrating plant production forecasting into rangeland management practices could significantly improve rangeland management outcomes. These procedures provide a user guide for creating plant production forecasts for any given area of interest and may be applicable across a wide range of other agricultural and rangeland management systems.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2024

Electrocatalytic Effects of Au Nanoclusters in its Electrochemiluminescence Enhanced by Coreactant Tertiary Amines

Abstract Atomically precise metal nanoclusters are increasingly exploited in electrocatalysis such as water electrolysis and CO 2 reduction. The catalytic effects are generally evaluated by conventional electrochemical methods or end‐product analysis. Herein, near infrared electrochemiluminescence (ECL) of the nanoclusters is introduced as a new signaling mechanism to complement classical voltammetric analysis for elucidating essential electrocatalytic parameters. Coreactant ECL from an aqueous soluble Au 22 nanocluster (NCs) enhanced by a common pH buffer materials 4‐(2‐hydroxyethyl)‐1‐piperazineethanesulfonic acid (HEPES) and by a piperazine drug hydroxyzine (HDZ) is studied under oxidative reduction pathways. Foot of the wave analysis on voltametric features and the kinetics profiles in potential‐step experiments are studied in different nanocluster and coreactant concentrations. Benchmark parameters such as rate constants are determined under EC (Electron‐transfer‐Chemical‐reaction) mechanism as feasibility validations. Because the luminescence properties of AuNCs are sensitive to the surface ligands or adsorbents, ECL is proposed as a new signal readout for operando studies providing insights for governing reaction mechanism and kinetics during catalytic reactions. Retrospectively, mechanistic understanding of the complex multi‐step reactions during ECL generation can provide guidance for the evaluation and optimization of ECL property for better quantitative applications.

37 INORGANIC, ORGANIC, PHYSICAL, AND ANALYTICAL CH↗
DOE OSTI2020

Gene Expression Thresholds Derived From Short-term Exposures Identify Rat Liver Tumorigens

Abstract Traditional methods for cancer risk assessment are resource-intensive, retrospective, and not feasible for the vast majority of environmental chemicals. In this study, we investigated whether quantitative genomic data from short-term studies may be used to set protective thresholds for potential tumorigenic effects. We hypothesized that gene expression biomarkers measuring activation of the key early events in established pathways for rodent liver cancer exhibit cross-chemical thresholds for tumorigenesis predictive for liver cancer risk. We defined biomarker thresholds for 6 major liver cancer pathways using training sets of chemicals with short-term genomic data (3–29 days of exposure) from the TG-GATES (n = 77 chemicals) and DrugMatrix (n = 86 chemicals) databases and then tested these thresholds within and between datasets. The 6 pathway biomarkers represented genotoxicity, cytotoxicity, and activation of xenobiotic, steroid, and lipid receptors (aryl hydrocarbon receptor, constitutive activated receptor, estrogen receptor, and peroxisome proliferator-activated receptor α). Thresholds were calculated as the maximum values derived from exposures without detectable liver tumor outcomes. We identified clear response values that were consistent across training and test sets. Thresholds derived from the TG-GATES training set were highly predictive (97%) in a test set of independent chemicals, whereas thresholds derived from the DrugMatrix study were 96%–97% predictive for the TG-GATES study. Threshold values derived from an abridged gene list (2/biomarker) also exhibited high predictive accuracy (91%–94%). These findings support the idea that early genomic changes can be used to establish threshold estimates or “molecular tipping points” that are predictive of later-life health outcomes.

Hill, III,, Thomas↗