Oceanic Responses Exhibited by a General Circulation Model in Response to Surface Wind Forcing from Satellite Data during El Nino
Explore the source record for details and available documents.
El Nino↗
SEARCH · Engineering Papers
Results for “Response surface model”
Search indexed NASA NTRS and DOE OSTI research on propulsion, heat transfer, battery materials and energy systems. Follow report and document links to the original sources.
Quote a phrase for an exact phrase match. Source license links do not imply unrestricted reuse.
Intercomparison and interpretation of surface energy fluxes in atmospheric general circulation models
Responses of the surface energy budgets and hydrologic cycles of 19 atmospheric general circulation models to an imposed, globally uniform sea surface temperature perturbation of 4 K were analyzed. The responses of the simulated surface energy budgets are extremely diverse and are closely linked to the responses of the simulated hydrologic cycles. The response of the net surface energy flux is not controlled by cloud effects; instead, it is determined primarily by the response of the latent heat flux. The prescribed warming of the oceans leads to major increases in the atmospheric water vapor content and the rates of evaporation and precipitation. The increased water vapor amount drastically increases the downwelling IR radiation at the earth's surface, but the amount of the change varies dramatically from one model to another.
Randall, D. A.↗
Calibration Designs for Non-Monolithic Wind Tunnel Force Balances
This research paper investigates current experimental designs and regression models for calibrating internal wind tunnel force balances of non-monolithic design. Such calibration methods are necessary for this class of balance because it has an electrical response that is dependent upon the sign of the applied forces and moments. This dependency gives rise to discontinuities in the response surfaces that are not easily modeled using traditional response surface methodologies. An analysis of current recommended calibration models is shown to lead to correlated response model terms. Alternative modeling methods are explored which feature orthogonal or near-orthogonal terms.
Wind tunnel models↗
Comparison between the land surface response of the ECMWF model and the FIFE-1987 data
An averaged time series for the surface data for the 15 x 15 km FIFE site was prepared for the summer of 1987. Comparisons with 48-hr forecasts from the ECMWF model for extended periods in July, August, and October 1987 identified model errors in the incoming SW radiation in clear skies, the ground heat flux, the formulation of surface evaporation, the soil-moisture model, and the entrainment at boundary-layer top. The model clear-sky SW flux is too high at the surface by 5-10 percent. The ground heat flux is too large by a factor of 2 to 3 because of the large thermal capacity of the first soil layer (which is 7 cm thick), and a time truncation error. The surface evaporation was near zero in October 1987, rather than of order 70 W/sq m at noon. The surface evaporation falls too rapidly after rainfall, with a time-scale of a few days rather than the 7-10 d (or more) of the observations. On time-scales of more than a few days the specified 'climate layer' soil moisture, rather than the storage of precipitation, has a large control on the evapotranspiration. The boundary-layer-top entrainment is too low. This results in a moist bias in the boundary-layer mixing ratio of order 2 g/Kg in forecasts from an experimental analysis with nearly realistic surface fluxes; this because there is insufficient downward mixing of dry air.
Betts, Alan K.↗
Hierarchical Modeling and Robust Synthesis for the Preliminary Design of Large Scale Complex Systems
Large-scale complex systems are characterized by multiple interacting subsystems and the analysis of multiple disciplines. The design and development of such systems inevitably requires the resolution of multiple conflicting objectives. The size of complex systems, however, prohibits the development of comprehensive system models, and thus these systems must be partitioned into their constituent parts. Because simultaneous solution of individual subsystem models is often not manageable iteration is inevitable and often excessive. In this dissertation these issues are addressed through the development of a method for hierarchical robust preliminary design exploration to facilitate concurrent system and subsystem design exploration, for the concurrent generation of robust system and subsystem specifications for the preliminary design of multi-level, multi-objective, large-scale complex systems. This method is developed through the integration and expansion of current design techniques: Hierarchical partitioning and modeling techniques for partitioning large-scale complex systems into more tractable parts, and allowing integration of subproblems for system synthesis; Statistical experimentation and approximation techniques for increasing both the efficiency and the comprehensiveness of preliminary design exploration; and Noise modeling techniques for implementing robust preliminary design when approximate models are employed. Hierarchical partitioning and modeling techniques including intermediate responses, linking variables, and compatibility constraints are incorporated within a hierarchical compromise decision support problem formulation for synthesizing subproblem solutions for a partitioned system. Experimentation and approximation techniques are employed for concurrent investigations and modeling of partitioned subproblems. A modified composite experiment is introduced for fitting better predictive models across the ranges of the factors, and an approach for constructing partitioned response surfaces is developed to reduce the computational expense of experimentation for fitting models in a large number of factors. Noise modeling techniques are compared and recommendations are offered for the implementation of robust design when approximate models are sought. These techniques, approaches, and recommendations are incorporated within the method developed for hierarchical robust preliminary design exploration. This method as well as the associated approaches are illustrated through their application to the preliminary design of a commercial turbofan turbine propulsion system. The case study is developed in collaboration with Allison Engine Company, Rolls Royce Aerospace, and is based on the Allison AE3007 existing engine designed for midsize commercial, regional business jets. For this case study, the turbofan system-level problem is partitioned into engine cycle design and configuration design and a compressor modules integrated for more detailed subsystem-level design exploration, improving system evaluation. The fan and low pressure turbine subsystems are also modeled, but in less detail. Given the defined partitioning, these subproblems are investigated independently and concurrently, and response surface models are constructed to approximate the responses of each. These response models are then incorporated within a commercial turbofan hierarchical compromise decision support problem formulation. Five design scenarios are investigated, and robust solutions are identified. The method and solutions identified are verified by comparison with the AE3007 engine. The solutions obtained are similar to the AE3007 cycle and configuration, but are better with respect to many of the requirements.
Koch, Patrick N.↗
Surface Energy Balance Responses to Radiative Forcing in the Central Arctic From MOSAiC and Models
The Arctic surface energy budget (SEB) couples the atmosphere with the sea ice, making it useful for both studying surface processes as well as evaluating models. Improved understanding of atmosphere-ice interactions is required to improve models, requiring year-round observations to address seasonally dependent biases. This work uses novel observations from the MOSAiC expedition to quantify the responses of surface fluxes to radiative forcing over sea ice throughout a complete annual cycle. We identify two primary regimes of flux response: an ice growth regime in winter and an ice melt regime in summer. In the growth regime, changes in radiative forcing impact upwelling longwave, sensible heat, and subsurface heat fluxes, whereas in the melt regime changes in radiative forcing primarily alter the amount of melt and subsurface transmission because the surface temperature is fixed. These observed responses of surface fluxes to radiative forcing are used to evaluate seven weather forecast models during the ice growth regime. In most models, the responses of surface fluxes to radiative forcing do not match observations. Many models also have biased downwelling longwave. One model (the Coupled Arctic Forecast System; CAFS) adequately captures both the mean radiative forcing and the flux responses in winter. CAFS is further evaluated against observations spanning the full MOSAiC year, demonstrating sufficient agreement to provide a more generalized understanding of these SEB process relationships across the Arctic.
54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗
Evaluation of Response Surface Experiment Designs for Distributed Propulsion Aircraft Aero-Propulsive Modeling
Explore the source record for details and available documents.
response surface methodology↗
A comparison of surrogate constitutive models for viscoplastic creep simulation of HT-9 steel
Mechanistic microstructure-informed constitutive models for the mechanical response of polycrystals are a cornerstone of computational materials science. However, as these models become increasingly more complex – often involving coupled differential equations describing the effect of specific deformation modes – their associated computational costs can become prohibitive, particularly in optimization or uncertainty quantification tasks that require numerous model evaluations. To address this challenge, surrogate constitutive models that balance accuracy and computational efficiency are highly desirable. Data-driven surrogate models, that learn the constitutive relation directly from data, have emerged as a promising solution. In this work, we develop two local surrogate models for the viscoplastic response of a steel: a piecewise response surface method and a mixture of experts model. These surrogates are designed to adapt to complex material behavior, which may vary with material parameters or operating conditions. The surrogate constitutive models are applied to creep simulations of HT-9 steel, an alloy of considerable interest to the nuclear energy sector due to its high tolerance to radiation damage, using training data generated from viscoplastic self-consistent (VPSC) simulations. In conclusion, we define a set of test metrics to numerically assess the accuracy of our surrogate models for predicting viscoplastic material behavior, and show that the mixture of experts model outperforms the piecewise response surface method in terms of accuracy.
36 MATERIALS SCIENCE↗
Correlating processing variables to material properties in recycled polypropylene: A data‐driven approach
Abstract Polypropylene (PP) is one of the most widely used plastics, yet its recycling remains limited, with less than 1% of solid waste PP being reprocessed. Mechanical recycling through extrusion is the most practical method, but inconsistent reprocessing conditions introduce variability in material properties. While temperature, screw speed, and residence time influence the thermomechanical stress applied during reprocessing, there are no standardized guidelines for optimizing these parameters. This study examines how these factors shape the properties of recycled PP, using conditions designed to mimic post‐industrial recycled (PIR) scrap. Residence time was measured using colorimetric tracking and correlated with molecular weight, viscosity, and mechanical properties over multiple extrusion cycles. Data‐driven modeling, including response surface methodology, support vector machines, and artificial neural networks, identified processing temperature as the dominant factor in material degradation, followed by residence time. Mechanical properties remained stable, while viscosity decreased predictably with increasing residence time. By linking reprocessing conditions to property evolution, this study provides a method to optimize processing parameters and reduce variability in recycled PP. These findings help manufacturers improve process control, making recycled PP more predictable for reuse in manufacturing. Highlights Study of PIR‐quality PP without additives or compatibilizers. Residence time analysis shows processing temperature drives PP property changes. Mark‐Houwink enables quick molecular weight checks for quality control. Models predict mechanical and rheological shifts in reprocessing. Optimized processing parameters minimize property degradation in recycling.
Estela‐García, John E. [Polymer Engineering Center↗
Statistical Design of Experiments Enables Rapid Exploration of Perfluorobutane Sulfonate Degradation
The phase-out of long-chain PFAS has led to the proliferation of highly recalcitrant short-chain analogs, and mineralization technologies for these short-chain PFAS are needed to mitigate their deleterious effects on environmental and human health. In this study, we utilize a statistical design of experiments, specifically, response surface methodology, to rapidly evaluate the electrochemical degradation of the short-chain PFAS, perfluorobutane sulfonate (PFBS). We evaluate the impacts of the three primary electrochemical parameters (concentration of PFBS, concentration of supporting electrolyte, and applied current) over multiple orders of magnitude on the three primary reaction outcomes of electrochemical PFBS degradation (incomplete PFBS decomposition, complete PFBS mineralization as fluorine, and anodic energy consumption). Our results correspond with literature and clearly identify the well-known tradeoff between energy consumption and complete mineralization. Intriguingly, partial PFBS decomposition and energy consumption demonstrate nonlinear dependencies in the current/supporting electrolyte concentration space and the current/PFBS concentration space, respectively. These findings highlight the utility of the response surface methodology model to efficiently interrogate a large parameter space, identifying both common results and less-obvious interactions between electrochemical parameters and their influences on reaction outcomes.
37 INORGANIC, ORGANIC, PHYSICAL, AND ANALYTICAL CH↗
Control of the Plasma-Material Interface for Long Pulse Optimization in the Experimental Advanced Superconducting Tokamak (EAST) (Final Report)
This project involved a collaborative effort, led by Dr. Rajesh Maingi of Princeton Plasma Physics Laboratory, to understand and control the plasma-material interface to improve long pulse discharge control and performance in the EAST devices. The focus is on long pulse recycling control and optimization, which can be challenging because of their broad range of materials used for plasma-facing components (PFC) and wall conditioning techniques. The purpose of the EAST device is to demonstrate long-pulse, stable, high performance plasma operation, providing a test-bed for key physics and technology issues for next step devices. As part of these tests, EAST has deployed carbon for the lower divertor PFC, tungsten for the upper divertor, and molybdenum for the main wall. In addition wall coatings are deployed for long pulse recycling control: lithium (Li) via several delivery tools, boronization, and recently also siliconization; for example, in 2013, a layer of SiC was deposited on all of the graphite tiles. Oxygen is also present at trace levels, making for a complex mix of materials and plasma-materials interactions (PMI). This mix of materials and the limited durability of wall coatings, coupled to partially optimized cryo-pumping, lead to evolution of the recycling off the PFCs, which restricts the duration of stationary, high performance, long pulse discharges. Comparing the wall conditioning techniques, Li enables the highest energy confinement and lowest recycling for the longest duration, while also suppressing ELMs in certain discharges. More specifically, research activities at the University of Tennessee focused on heat flux profile measurements in EAST, modeling the surface response, including the bonding energetics and chemical interactions between Li with carbon, tungsten, hydrogen and impurities, in addition to post situ experimental characterization and analysis of the divertor plasma facing components in EAST. This final report describes the overall progress within each of these tasks at the University of Tennessee within the project.
36 MATERIALS SCIENCE↗
Coupled Climate Models Systematically Underestimate Radiation Response to Surface Warming
Explore the source record for details and available documents.
Dirk Olonscheck↗
Tropical synoptic interpretation of inter-channel correlations from Tiros N
Synoptic variability contained in a set of Tiros N channel brightness temperatures was analyzed for a nine-day period during January 1979, between the dateline and 90 deg W and between 30 deg N and 20 deg S. In the procedure, the spatial coherence of each channel is first described in terms of functions of interchannel differences and geographic and synoptic variations. Second, horizontal and vertical pattern of individual channels are examined through empirical orthogonal functional decomposition. Finally, response surface regression models are developed to predict missing Tiros N channels from available Tiros N and NOAA-5 data. The percentage variance was predicted for each channel from the Tiros N microwave and stratospheric channels. Generally speaking, about 80 percent of the variance in each channel can be predicted for the Tiros model, excepting the two tropospheric moisture channels, where prediction was less successful.
Mcguirk, J. P.↗
SLS Aerodynamics: Progress Toward Fusion of CFD and Wind Tunnel Data
Explore the source record for details and available documents.
Space Launch System (SLS)↗
A Comparison of Neural Networks and Fuzzy Logic Methods for Process Modeling
The goal of this work was to analyze the potential of neural networks and fuzzy logic methods to develop approximate response surfaces as process modeling, that is for mapping of input into output. Structural response was chosen as an example. Each of the many methods surveyed are explained and the results are presented. Future research directions are also discussed.
Cios, Krzysztof J.↗
Applications of Response Surface-Based Methods to Noise Analysis in the Conceptual Design of Revolutionary Aircraft
Due to the growing problem of noise in today's air transportation system, there have arisen needs to incorporate noise considerations in the conceptual design of revolutionary aircraft. Through the use of response surfaces, complex noise models may be converted into polynomial equations for rapid and simplified evaluation. This conversion allows many of the commonly used response surface-based trade space exploration methods to be applied to noise analysis. This methodology is demonstrated using a noise model of a notional 300 passenger Blended-Wing-Body (BWB) transport. Response surfaces are created relating source noise levels of the BWB vehicle to its corresponding FAR-36 certification noise levels and the resulting trade space is explored. Methods demonstrated include: single point analysis, parametric study, an optimization technique for inverse analysis, sensitivity studies, and probabilistic analysis. Extended applications of response surface-based methods in noise analysis are also discussed.
Hill, Geoffrey A.↗
Extending a land-surface model with <i>Sphagnum</i> moss to simulate responses of a northern temperate bog to whole ecosystem warming and elevated CO<sub>2</sub>
Abstract. Mosses need to be incorporated into Earth system models to better simulate peatland functional dynamics under the changing environment. Sphagnum mosses are strong determinants of nutrient, carbon, and water cycling in peatland ecosystems. However, most land-surface models do not include Sphagnum or other mosses as represented plant functional types (PFTs), thereby limiting predictive assessment of peatland responses to environmental change. In this study, we introduce a moss PFT into the land model component (ELM) of the Energy Exascale Earth System Model (E3SM) by developing water content dynamics and nonvascular photosynthetic processes for moss. The model was parameterized and independently evaluated against observations from an ombrotrophic forested bog as part of the Spruce and Peatland Responses Under Changing Environments (SPRUCE) project. The inclusion of a Sphagnum PFT with some Sphagnum-specific processes in ELM allows it to capture the observed seasonal dynamics of Sphagnum gross primary production (GPP) albeit with an underestimate of peak GPP. The model simulated a reasonable annual net primary production (NPP) for moss but with less interannual variation than observed, and it reproduced aboveground biomass for tree PFTs and stem biomass for shrubs. Different species showed highly variable warming responses under both ambient and elevated atmospheric CO2 concentrations, and elevated CO2 altered the warming response direction for the peatland ecosystem. Microtopography is critical: Sphagnum mosses on hummocks and hollows were simulated to show opposite warming responses (NPP decreasing with warming on hummocks but increasing in hollows), and hummock Sphagnum was modeled to have a strong dependence on water table height. The inclusion of this new moss PFT in global ELM simulations may provide a useful foundation for the investigation of northern peatland carbon exchange, enhancing the predictive capacity of carbon dynamics across the regional and global scales.
54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗
Investigation of Navier-Stokes Code Verification and Design Optimization
With rapid progress made in employing computational techniques for various complex Navier-Stokes fluid flow problems, design optimization problems traditionally based on empirical formulations and experiments are now being addressed with the aid of computational fluid dynamics (CFD). To be able to carry out an effective CFD-based optimization study, it is essential that the uncertainty and appropriate confidence limits of the CFD solutions be quantified over the chosen design space. The present dissertation investigates the issues related to code verification, surrogate model-based optimization and sensitivity evaluation. For Navier-Stokes (NS) CFD code verification a least square extrapolation (LSE) method is assessed. This method projects numerically computed NS solutions from multiple, coarser base grids onto a freer grid and improves solution accuracy by minimizing the residual of the discretized NS equations over the projected grid. In this dissertation, the finite volume (FV) formulation is focused on. The interplay between the xi concepts and the outcome of LSE, and the effects of solution gradients and singularities, nonlinear physics, and coupling of flow variables on the effectiveness of LSE are investigated. A CFD-based design optimization of a single element liquid rocket injector is conducted with surrogate models developed using response surface methodology (RSM) based on CFD solutions. The computational model consists of the NS equations, finite rate chemistry, and the k-6 turbulence closure. With the aid of these surrogate models, sensitivity and trade-off analyses are carried out for the injector design whose geometry (hydrogen flow angle, hydrogen and oxygen flow areas and oxygen post tip thickness) is optimized to attain desirable goals in performance (combustion length) and life/survivability (the maximum temperatures on the oxidizer post tip and injector face and a combustion chamber wall temperature). A preliminary multi-objective optimization study is carried out using a geometric mean approach. Following this, sensitivity analyses with the aid of variance-based non-parametric approach and partial correlation coefficients are conducted using data available from surrogate models of the objectives and the multi-objective optima to identify the contribution of the design variables to the objective variability and to analyze the variability of the design variables and the objectives. In summary the present dissertation offers insight into an improved coarse to fine grid extrapolation technique for Navier-Stokes computations and also suggests tools for a designer to conduct design optimization study and related sensitivity analyses for a given design problem.
Vaidyanathan, Rajkumar↗