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Development and Evaluation of Occupancy-Aware HVAC Control for Residential Building Energy Efficiency and Occupant Comfort

Occupancy-aware heating, ventilation, and air conditioning (HVAC) control offers the opportunity to reduce energy use without sacrificing thermal comfort. Residential HVAC systems often use manually-adjusted or constant setpoint temperatures, which heat and cool the house regardless of whether it is needed. By incorporating occupancy-awareness into HVAC control, heating and cooling can be used for only those time periods it is needed. Yet, bringing this technology to fruition is dependent on accurately predicting occupancy. Non-probabilistic prediction models offer an opportunity to use collected occupancy data to predict future occupancy profiles. Smart devices, such as a connected thermostat, which already include occupancy sensors, can be used to provide a continually growing collection of data that can then be harnessed for short-term occupancy prediction by compiling and creating a binary occupancy prediction. Real occupancy data from six homes located in Colorado is analyzed and investigated using this occupancy prediction model. Results show that non-probabilistic occupancy models in combination with occupancy sensors can be combined to provide a hybrid HVAC control with savings on average of 5.0% and without degradation of thermal comfort. Model predictive control provides further opportunities, with the ability to adjust the relative importance between thermal comfort and energy savings to achieve savings between 1% and 13.3% depending on the relative weighting between thermal comfort and energy savings. In all cases, occupancy prediction allows the opportunity for a more intelligent and optimized strategy to residential HVAC control.

32 ENERGY CONSERVATION, CONSUMPTION, AND UTILIZATI↗

ANSI/ASHRAE/IES Standard 90.1-2019 Performance Rating Method Reference Manual

This document is intended to be a reference manual for the Appendix G Performance Rating Method (PRM) of ANSI/ASHRAE/IES Standard 90.1-2019 (Standard 90.1-2019). The PRM can be used to demonstrate compliance with the standard and to rate the energy efficiency of commercial and high-rise residential buildings with designs that exceed the requirements of Standard 90.1. Use of the PRM for demonstrating compliance with Standard 90.1 was a new feature of ANSI/ASHRAE/IES Standard 90.1-2016 (Standard 90.1-2016). The procedures and processes described in the PRM reference manual (PRM-RM) are designed to provide consistency and accuracy by filling in gaps and providing additional details needed by users of the PRM.

32 ENERGY CONSERVATION, CONSUMPTION, AND UTILIZATI↗

Demand Response in Residential Energy Code: Technical Brief

As buildings account for over 75% of U.S. electricity use, effectively managing their loads can greatly facilitate the transition towards a clean, reliable grid. Grid-interactive efficient buildings (GEBs) combine efficiency and demand flexibility with smart technologies and communication to provide occupant comfort and productivity while serving the grid as a distributed energy resource (DER). In turn, GEBs can play a key role in ensuring access to an affordable, reliable, sustainable, and modern U.S. electric power system. Their national adoption could provide $\$$100-200 billion in U.S. electric power system cost savings over the next two decades. The associated reduction in CO 2 emissions is estimated at 6% per year by 2030 (DOE 2021). Building codes represent standard design practice in the construction industry and continually evolve to include advanced technologies and innovative practices. Historically, national model energy codes establish minimum efficiency requirements for new construction (ICC 2020). Expanding codes to support GEB capabilities is a pivotal step towards realizing demand flexibility in support of a clean grid by addressing capabilities to improve interoperability between smart building systems, the grid, and renewable energy resources. Realizing GEBs requires buildings with automated demand response (DR) capabilities that enable standardized communication with or control of, subject to explicit consumer consent, energy smart appliances or home energy management systems. This is achieved through direct or indirect (i.e., via an aggregator) communication between appliances and the electric grid. Energy codes can also support DR communication standardization and advance the deployment of building-integrated DERs such as energy storage, generation, and electric vehicles (EVs). Incorporating automated DR capabilities in energy codes provides many benefits to the consumers. Specifically, it aligns building electric load demand with intermittent renewable energy source availability, decreases peak load on the electric grid, allows buildings to respond to utility price signals, supports electrical network reliability and market growth of products and processes aligned with clean economic growth. The incorporation of DR into the model residential energy codes was considered for both the 2021 and 2024 International Energy Conservation Code (IECC) code development cycles. The approved DR measures in the 2021 cycle were removed in response to appeals (ICC 2020). Updated language was presented for consideration again for the 2024 IECC, where it was negotiated and again approved, and again removed in response to appeals (ICC 2024). This resulted in many sections, including sections on demand responsive controls, being moved to the credits options or an appendix as a voluntary application. This technical brief updates the proposed DR components such that they can be considered by states and local governments for direct incorporation into their codes, as well as for future IECC energy code development. The proposal refinements are intended to support consistency in approach and provide a degree of certainty for building owners, designers, contractors, manufacturers, and building and fire safety professionals. The scope of this technical brief includes three strategies for DR in residential buildings: 1) smart thermostats with demand-responsive control, 2) electric water heating incorporating demand-responsive controls and communication and 3) grid Integrated solar and energy storage systems.

2021 IECC↗

ANSI/ASHRAE/IES Standard 90.1-2022 Performance Rating Method Reference Manual

This document is intended to be a reference manual for the Appendix G Performance Rating Method (PRM) of ANSI/ASHRAE/IES Standard 90.1-2022 (Standard 90.1-2022). The PRM can be used to demonstrate compliance with the standard and to rate the energy efficiency of commercial and high-rise residential buildings with designs that exceed the requirements of Standard 90.1. Use of the PRM for demonstrating compliance with Standard 90.1 was a new feature of ANSI/ASHRAE/IES Standard 90.1-2016 (Standard 90.1-2016). The procedures and processes described in the PRM reference manual (PRM-RM) are designed to provide consistency and accuracy by filling in gaps and providing additional details needed by users of the PRM.

32 ENERGY CONSERVATION, CONSUMPTION, AND UTILIZATI↗

Residential Building Energy Efficiency Field Studies: Low-Rise Multifamily

In recent years, the U.S. Department of Energy (DOE) has conducted a series of research studies to validate energy efficient building technologies in the field. Much of the work has focused on single-family construction, and some has also addressed commercial energy codes. The work detailed in this DOE-funded study (EE0007616) focuses on low-rise multifamily buildings (three stories or fewer above grade) in various regions of the United States, and reports on how state-level building codes are being implemented, both in terms of observed characteristics and also in terms of estimated energy impacts. Nearly 100 buildings across four states—Illinois, Minnesota, Oregon, and Washington—were sampled, which represent a range of climate types from mild temperature to very cold continental. Both common entry and outdoor entry buildings were included, and a parallel research project evaluated envelope air tightness and current still-evolving air tightness testing methods. Finally, a set of structured interviews of building designers and other relevant professionals was carried to out to gain more insight into this market. To the greatest extent possible, the methodology developed under the project for low-rise multifamily buildings mirrored the approach established by Pacific Northwest National Laboratory (PNNL) for single-family residential buildings (https://www.energy.gov/eere/buildings/downloads/residential-building-energy-code-field-study). This included the general approach to sampling, recruitment, and data collection, as well as data analysis and presentation. The range of permitting dates for the sites encompassed two energy code cycles in most regions. All states in the study had adopted a variation of the International Energy Conservation Code (IECC) for the structure of their state code. The low-rise multifamily occupancy presents a hybrid building type: most of the building’s conditioned floor area was covered by the residential chapter of the code while portions of the building (such as corridors and common spaces) fell under the commercial code chapter. The key items assessed in this work were: Building Shell—exterior wall insulation, ceiling insulation, foundation insulation, windows. Common Areas—HVAC and lighting. Living Units—lighting, ventilation. A few items were not assessed in detail, given their relative paucity in this occupancy type; these included duct leakage, pipe insulation, and hot water circulation controls. Building characteristics were collected via a combination of architectural, mechanical, electrical, and plumbing plan reviews and field inspections, and entered into a spreadsheet-based tool that was later queried to build a database. Data went through quality control both upon arrival and via a later semi-automated review and assurance process. Most of the data are presented graphically so that the reader can quickly assess compliance with the applicable energy codes (both by state and by code year). As a final step, EnergyPlus™ simulations were created for all buildings in the study to estimate both the as-found energy use intensity (EUI) and the energy and CO 2 that could be saved if features that were found to not meet code minimums were brought up to code. The savings estimates were tabulated for each of the four states in the study. The research team found that the single-family approach was largely applicable to low-rise multifamily buildings. This applies to both the data collection and the prototype EUI analysis. Most of the occupied space is living units and falls under residential energy codes, and many characteristics use similar envelope construction and relatively straightforward mechanical systems and lighting. One of the most challenging aspects of this work was to build an effective spreadsheet-based data collection instrument that could allow efficient collection of both building plan and field data. The research team is of the view that other methods could be equally effective if the work is done carefully with diligent quality control. The primary findings for the work center around the thermal envelope and mechanical systems and lighting at the sites: For thermal envelope components, the majority of buildings met or were better than the prescriptive code.This suggests that building designers and builders are aware of code requirements. In some cases, surveyed buildings were designed to qualify for energy efficiency certification programs. These buildings made up at least 20% of sampled buildings in each state. Almost all buildings met mechanical system efficiency requirements (for both living units and common areas). In some cases, sites employed systems that were considerably more efficient than required by the applicable energy code. Dwelling units had a majority of high-efficacy lighting, often in excess of the state’s residential code requirements. While high-efficacy fixtures were also typical in common areas (corridors and stairwells), lighting power densities (LPDs) in these areas were sometimes higher than levels dictated by the applicable part of the state commercial energy code. The simulation models run on a series of low-rise multifamily prototypes, informed by a composite of the field data collected, calculated annual EUIs of between 20 and 50 kBtu/ft2-yr, with the range representing the effects of both building characteristics and building location (climate zone). A detailed process (based on simulations of prototype buildings) was used to estimate the amount of avoided energy use that would occur if 100% adherence to energy codes were attained. The results indicated modest savings are attainable for items such as window thermal performance and common area lighting. The result is overall only a modest potential for additional energy savings, averaging about 10% of EUI.

29 ENERGY PLANNING, POLICY, AND ECONOMY↗

Occupant-driven end use load models for demand response and flexibility service participation of residential grid-interactive buildings

As demand response becomes increasingly used as a tool to support improved grid flexibility, it is important to consider that there are many potential types of energy end uses that may be used to support such flexibility. Residential appliances, often accounting for 30 % or more of residential energy use, are a currently untapped source of demand flexibility, particularly when aggregated together across homes. To date there has been very limited analysis of residential appliances for use as grid-interactive loads. As such, this research uses disaggregated energy end use data for 564 households, to model the electricity demand flexibility potential of the use of residential dishwashers, clothes washers, clothes dryers, ovens, and ranges (oven + stovetop) on both weekdays and weekends. This includes both at the building level, as well as aggregated to the grid level, specifically the Midcontinent Independent System Operator (MISO) region. This study was divided into two parts. Part 1 focuses on determining appliance-level loads, and Part 2, which involves aggregation to the grid. Findings suggest that among the studied appliances, clothes dryers provide the greatest demand reduction potential for most times of the day, followed by dishwashers and clothes washers. The maximum potential reduction for clothes dryers is found to be approximately at 11:00 a.m. and this potential sustains throughout most of the daytime period. When considering the willingness of households to participate, based on a survey of households in the Midwest region, clothes dryers still have the most potential for demand reduction. The availability of appliances for load modulation on weekdays and weekends indicates similar load reduction potential for all appliances. Overall, the results of this study suggest that there is an opportunity for shifting appliance usage to optimize grid efficiency and enhance demand response strategies.

32 ENERGY CONSERVATION, CONSUMPTION, AND UTILIZATI↗

Innovating the next generation of commercial smart building software

Nearly 30% of commercial building energy use is wasted due to equipment faults and HVAC controls problems. The result is increased emissions, compromised comfort and productivity, and less reliable coordination of building power needs with a clean grid. The energy impact alone represents $17 billion in potential savings. Today’s smart building software provides a robust solution to address these operational deficiencies. Energy management and information systems (EMIS) are saving up to 9% on average, with two-year paybacks. They are being incorporated into energy management processes, commissioning services, and utility programs. As effective as they are, two barriers prevent even deeper benefits; limited personnel to fix problems once they are identified, and the expense and time to manually implement changes in control systems. In partnership with the research community, the EMIS industry is developing new capabilities to overcome these barriers. Moving beyond siloed products for either fault detection and diagnostics, or optimal control, these new capabilities empower users to not only automatically identify faults, but also to push corrective action, and control improvements to their buildings. In this paper, several areas for enhancements are documented: ‘one-time’ correction of faults such as setpoints, schedules, and economizer lockouts; short-term active testing for automated proportional integral derivative (PID) loop tuning and functional testing; and continuous supervisory control for demand flexibility and year-round efficiency. Results are presented from a pair of partner implementations out of a dozen providers integrating these enhancements into their products, including field tests from across the country, and insights into operator acceptance and integration into operations and maintenance practices.

Casillas, Armando↗

Pathway for decarbonizing residential building operations in the US and China beyond the mid-century

With global carbon budget targets looming, residential buildings in top economies must become carbon neutral as soon as possible to reserve more emission space for emerging carbon-emitting economies. This study is the first to compare the operational decarbonization process of China’s and the United States (US) residential buildings from 2000 to 2060 by combining the end-use emission model with the decomposing structural decomposition (DSD) method and Monte Carlo simulation. The results show that from 2001 to 2020 China decarbonized 1544 mega-tons of carbon dioxide (MtCO 2 ) and the US decarbonized 1848 MtCO 2 . In the business-as-usual scenario, China will hit its emission peak in 2031 (±3) with 934 (±61) MtCO 2 , while the US will maintain a lock-in level of 736 (±133) MtCO 2 since the 2030s. In the decarbonization scenario, operational carbon neutrality for residential buildings in 2060 is promoted by an increase in clean power generation proportion, building-integrated power generation level, building electrification level, and a reduction in end-use energy intensity, which will contribute 34.4 %, 21.4 %, 14.3 %, and 29.9 % in China and 32.9 %, 33.1 %, 8.2 %, and 25.8 % in the US, respectively. Especially, building-integrated power generation in China only costs about 40 % of what it costs in the US. Besides, high-decarbonization strategies for residential building operations are proposed as references for governments to formulate targeted climate policies. Overall, this study offers data benchmarks for buildings’ carbon neutrality of top economies to further promote synergistic carbon neutrality with the buildings of emerging economies in the age of Post COP27.

32 ENERGY CONSERVATION, CONSUMPTION, AND UTILIZATI↗

From roads to roofs: How urban and rural mobility influence building energy consumption

In this article, understanding the relationship between travel behavior and building energy use at an urban scale is crucial for developing effective energy management strategies. Mobility patterns significantly impact building occupancy, which in turn affects energy consumption. However, existing methods often focus on individual buildings, whereas geographical influences on energy usage are not adequately examined. This study addresses this gap by using transportation origin-destination (OD) data to estimate building occupancy and energy. The proposed method assigns OD trips from census block groups to the building level, incorporating building, travel survey, and census data to derive building occupancy profiles. This method was applied to urban and rural areas with 4062 buildings in 70 census block groups. We found that the OD-informed occupancy profile exhibits smoother energy consumption patterns compared with that of Department of Energy reference occupancy profiles. Our analysis reveals distinct building energy consumption patterns among groups with long and short commutes, emphasizing the effect of commute times and work schedules on residential energy usage. This framework is useful for practitioners in transportation agencies and utility companies, enabling the estimation of building energy based on mobility patterns. Overall, this study shows the potential of integrating transportation and building energy data to inform cross-sector energy management strategies.

32 ENERGY CONSERVATION, CONSUMPTION, AND UTILIZATI↗

Heating and Cooling Energy Modeling of 3D-Printed Concrete Construction of Residential Buildings [Slides]

3D printed concrete construction (C3DP) is an emerging technology that comes with the associated benefits of high thermal mass walls. We investigated using BEopt software the heating and cooling energy use of a single story C3DP-constructed house. We then compared the heating/cooling energy use of the C3DP house against the corresponding energy use in a traditional timber (wood) frame construction (WFC), as well as a concrete masonry unit (CMU) construction. Both peak energy use for heating and cooling (Btu), as well as base energy use for both heating and cooling (MMBtu/yr) of the C3DP design were compared against the WFC and CMU baseline construction of identical geometries and orientations across all eight climate zones defined in the International Energy Conservation Code (IECC). The BEopt models for all three constructions (C3DP, WFC, and CMU) were built to comply with the 2018 IECC code. Results indicate that C3DP construction has significant heating and cooling energy benefits in certain climate zones, with the highest peak cooling energy savings (9% compared to WFC, and 5% compared to CMU) in the IECC Climate Zone 1 in the month of July. The peak heating and cooling energy demand reduction of C3DP were found to be more significant than the base heating and cooling energy demand in all IECC climate zones. The 2018 IECC compliance-related U-Factor adjustments of all models also resulted in more peak energy savings of the C3DP design in the cooling-dominated climate zones (climate zones 1 and 2), moderate energy savings in moderate climate zones (climate zones 3, 4, and 6), and little to no change in energy savings in very cold climates (climate zones 7 and 8).

32 ENERGY CONSERVATION, CONSUMPTION, AND UTILIZATI↗

Residential Natural Gas Demand Response Potential during Extreme Cold Events in Electricity-Gas Coupled Energy Systems

In regions where natural gas is used for both power generation and heating buildings, extreme cold weather events can place the electrical system under enormous stress and challenge the ability to meet residential heating and electric demands. Residential demand response has long been used in the power sector to curtail summer electric load, but these types of programs in general have not seen adoption in the natural gas sector during winter months. Natural gas demand response (NG-DR) has garnered interest given recent extreme cold weather events in the United States; however, the magnitude of savings and potential impacts—to occupants and energy markets—are not well understood. We present a case-study analysis of the technical potential for residential natural gas demand response in the northeast United States that utilizes diverse whole-building energy simulations and high-performance computing. Our results show that NG-DR applied to residential heating systems during extreme cold-weather conditions could reduce natural gas demand by 1–29% based on conservative and aggressive strategies, respectively. This indicates a potential to improve the resilience of gas and electric systems during stressful events, which we examine by estimating the impact on energy costs and electricity generation from natural gas. We also explore relationships between hourly indoor temperatures, demand response, and building envelope efficiency.

03 NATURAL GAS↗

Dynamic Boundary Microgrids Under Privatization Considerations

Microgrids have physical, electrical, and logical (data, network, and ownership) boundaries. To power unserved customer loads during an outage, microgrids can extend the traditional operational boundaries. This can become complex when considering microgrid-to-microgrid (M2M) interactions where sensitive information such as competitive microgrid operational data is not shared. This work proposes an optimization method coordinated between microgrid controllers and distribution management systems that limits data sharing. The method involves a competitive bidding strategy that maximizes unserved load coverage while minimizing resource utilization and sensitive operational data sharing among entities. The work is validated on a two-microgrid system with photovoltaic and energy storage systems and curves of load derived from real world residential buildings datasets. Results show that the proposed method, when applied for three distinct use cases of energy storage sufficiency to cover the predefined boundary and/or the expanded boundary, can successfully select and bid the available load coverage.

Starke, Michael [ORNL] (ORCID:0000000221211195)↗

Pennsylvania and Delaware Energy Code Field Studies (Final Technical Report (FTR)

Led by Northeast Energy Efficiency Partnerships (NEEP) in partnership with Performance Systems Development (PSD), the project aimed to conduct energy code compliance field studies for single-family residential buildings in Pennsylvania and Delaware, as well as multifamily and commercial buildings in Pennsylvania. Using U.S. Department of Energy (DOE) approved methodologies, trained field teams conducted on-site observations and testing to document compliance with key energy efficiency measures, including building envelope insulation, air sealing, duct leakage, windows, and mechanical systems. Data from these studies would then be analyzed to identify construction trends and compliance gaps. The goals included published baseline data for each study, and a training roadmap tailored to each state’s needs. This roadmap would have guided outreach and training for builders, code officials, and other stakeholders on the specific code requirements that offered the greatest opportunity for improvement.

32 ENERGY CONSERVATION, CONSUMPTION, AND UTILIZATI↗

Sensitivity Analysis of Occupant Preferences on Energy Usage in Residential Buildings: Preprint

Residential buildings, accounting for 37% of the total electricity consumption in the United States, are suitable for demand-side management (DSM) programs to support effective and economical operation of the power system. A home energy management system (HEMS) enables residential buildings to participate in such programs. It is important to account for occupant preferences in HEMS to ensure occupant satisfaction while participating in DSM programs. For example, people who prefer a higher thermal comfort level are likely to consume more energy. In this study, we used foresee™, a HEMS developed by the National Renewable Energy Lab (NREL), to perform a sensitivity analysis of occupant preferences with the following objectives: minimize utility cost, minimize carbon footprint, and maximize thermal comfort. To incorporate the preferences into the HEMS, the SMARTER method was used to derive a set of weighting factors for each objective. We performed week-long building energy simulations using a model of a home in Fort Collins, Colorado, where there is mandatory time-of-use electricity rate structure. The foreseeTM HEMS was used to control the home with six different sets of occupant preferences. The study shows that occupant preferences can have a significant impact and is important to consider when modeling residential buildings. Results show that the HEMS could achieve energy reduction ranging from 3% to 21%, cost savings ranging from 5% to 24%, and carbon emission reduction ranging from 3% to 21%, while maintaining a low thermal discomfort level ranging from 0.78 K-hour to 6.47 K-hour in a one-week period during winter. These outcomes quantify the impact of varying occupant preferences and will be useful for controlling the electrical grid and developing HEMS solutions.

carbon footprint↗

Analysis of Residential Time-of-Use Utility Rate Structures and Economic Implications for Thermal Energy Storage

Thermal energy storage (TES) is an increasingly popular tool to level out the daily electrical demand and add stability to the electrical grid as more intermittent renewable energy sources are installed. TES systems can locally decouple high thermal loads from the operation of a heat pump or reduce the electrical energy demand of the heat pump by providing a more favorable temperature gradient. In addition, many policy makers and utility providers have introduced time-of-use (TOU) rate schedules for residential customers to better reflect the price of electricity generation and demand for specific times. TOU rate schedules price grid-provided electricity differently throughout the day depending on the region’s climate, time of year, and electrical production. Large differences between on-peak and off-peak electrical prices may create an economic advantage for a residential customer to install a TES system. In this work, the economic and energy savings are calculated for a modeled 2,400 square foot residential building with water/ice-based TES using a TOU rate structure. The weather data is from Fresno County, CA, ASHRAE climate zone 3B, and a representative residential TOU utility rate structure from Pacific Gas and Electric (PG&E) was used. The results showed that total energy consumption could be reduced by 14.5% with an 87.5% reduction in on-peak energy usage when the TES is installed. The cost of operating this system for space cooling was reduced by nearly 20% using the sample utility rate plan.

Sultan, Sara↗

Impacts of Model Building Energy Codes – Interim Update

The U.S. Department of Energy (DOE) Building Energy Codes Program (BECP) periodically evaluates state and national impacts associated with energy codes in residential and commercial buildings. Pacific Northwest National Laboratory (PNNL), funded by DOE, assessed the prospective impacts of national model building energy codes from 2010 through 2040. The model codes of interest in this report are the International Energy Conservation Code (IECC) for residential buildings and ASHRAE Standard 90.1 for commercial buildings. This report describes the methodology used for the assessment and presents the impacts in terms of energy savings, consumer cost savings, and reduced CO 2 emissions at the state and national levels.

32 ENERGY CONSERVATION, CONSUMPTION, AND UTILIZATI↗

Impacts of Model Building Energy Codes

The Department of Energy (DOE) Building Energy Codes Program (BECP) periodically evaluates state and national impacts associated with energy codes in residential and commercial buildings. Pacific Northwest National Laboratory (PNNL), funded by DOE, assessed the prospective impacts of national model building energy codes from 2010 through 2040. The model codes of interest in this report are the International Energy Conservation Code (IECC) for residential buildings and ASHRAE Standard 90.1 for commercial buildings. This report describes the methodology used for the assessment and presents the impacts in terms of energy savings, consumer cost savings, and reduced CO 2 emissions at the state and national levels.

32 ENERGY CONSERVATION, CONSUMPTION, AND UTILIZATI↗

ResStock Measure Documentation: Residential Single-Stage Geothermal Heat Pump (3.8 COP, 18.6 EER)

The goal of this work is to develop energy efficiency, demand flexibility, and other retrofit end-use load shapes (electricity, gas, propane, or fuel oil) that cover a majority of the high-impact, market-ready (or nearly market-ready) measures. "Measures" refers to retrofits that can be applied to buildings during modeling. An "end-use savings shape" is the difference in energy consumption between a baseline building and a building with an energy efficiency, demand flexibility, or other retrofit measure applied. It results in a time-series profile that is broken down by end use and fuel (electricity or on-site gas, propane, or fuel oil use) at each time step. ResStock is a highly granular, physics-based, bottom-up model that uses multiple data sources, statistical sampling methods, and advanced building energy simulations to estimate the annual subhourly energy consumption of the residential building stock across the United States. The baseline model intends to represent the U.S. residential building stock as it existed in 2018. Technical documentation for the inputs and assumptions in the baseline building stock model is available in Reyna et al. (2025). Calibration and validation of the baseline model results are available in the final technical report of the End-Use Load Profiles project (Wilson et al. 2022). This documentation focuses on a single end-use savings shape measure: Residential Single-Stage Geothermal Heat Pump (GHP).?Single-stage GHPs are able to reduce energy consumption by 31% for the entire stock. Additional results provided below detail how savings changes for sections of the housing stock with different base heating fuel and in different climate zones, as well as the savings potential by state for both heating and cooling. Utility bills and electric panel impacts are also shown and discussed.

15 GEOTHERMAL ENERGY↗