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At least 73 records · Page 4
All sourcesNASA NTRSDOE OSTI
NASA NTRSDate not supplied

In-Depth Modeling and Simulation Analysis of Artemis Missions Using the Impact Probabilistic Risk Assessment Tool

BACKGROUND The Artemis campaign is a Moon exploration program with a series of six planned missions, five of which will be crewed. These five crewed missions will contain a single mission segment (space flight), or multiple mission segments involving space flight (Orion), lunar landing (LTV) and/or space habitat (Gateway). Each crewed segment faces the risk of unique medical conditions, necessitating medical sets/kits tailored to those specificities. To support and enable a data-driven and evidence-based decision-making process through out a mission’s life cycle, a software tool called IMPACT was developed. Using probabilistic risk assessment (PRA) methodologies, IMPACT (Informing Mission Planning via Analysis of Complex Tradespaces) is a novel tool built for analyzing the possibility of encountering complex medical risks during space flight, and for identifying the medical resources and capabilities needed to treat those potential at-risk medical conditions. IMPACT achieves this by performing hundreds of thousands of Monte Carlo simulations of missions to build aggregate pictures of medical risk. During an extended simulation modeling phase, IMPACT generated analytical results for medical risks, and the medical resources and capabilities to address those risks, for every segment of every crewed Artemis mission. This presentation will highlight the reliability, consistency and validity of IMPACT’s computational modeling techniques and will showcase the library of analytical outcomes generated for the Artemis missions. OVERVIEW During the early stages of IMPACT’s design, architecture and technical requirements collection, “scenarios” (use cases) - achievement goals required for acceptance testing, were identified by stakeholders. IMPACT successfully completed the scenario testing requirements and undertook an extensive operational run phase utilizing a wide range of input combinations with a goal of delivering a cohesive, trustworthy, reliable, vast, and diverse body of evidence. The intent of these modeling runs was to validate consistency in output, ensure solidity of executable operations and to streamline processes by identifying areas requiring efficiency improvements. Using the many missions of Artemis, IMPACT ran variations of operational runs to assess the output for acceptable, as well as unusual characteristics. This rigorous long-term “shakedown” analysis was implemented to help build a collective body of evidence to aid in securing a high level of confidence, reliability, and validity in the output, whether from the applicational components of IMPACT, or the entirety of the operational process. ANTICIPATED ANALYSIS AND CONCLUSION This presentation will discuss the various categories of input criteria; the comparisons in the application of these input criteria to various Artemis missions; the preparation and collection of the body of evidence, and reliability of the computational modeling techniques. This paper serves as an initial analytical overview of IMPACT’s probabilistic risk assessment (PRA) medical risk outputs covering Artemis missions and is not intended to be deemed the official medical response for the Artemis campaign.

Crew Composition↗
DOE OSTI2025

Tightest Mixed-Integer Programming Formulations for Quadratic SCUC Optimization

In this project, we developed new, tighter Mixed-Integer Programming (MIP) formulations for the combined Alternating Current (AC) Security-Constrained Unit Commitment (SCUC) and Security-Constrained Optimal Power Flow (SCOPF). The work addresses a critical challenge in power system operations: efficiently determining which generation units to commit and how to optimally dispatch them while maintaining network reliability constraints for both normal and contingency scenarios. Our efforts: 1. Advance the Understanding of SCUC/SCOPF Modeling: By introducing tighter MIP formulations and leveraging cutting-edge optimization tools (Julia/JuMP, PowerModels.jl), this project has pushed forward the state of the art in efficient power systems scheduling. 2. Enhance Technical and Economic Feasibility: The methods developed provide more accurate and potentially faster solutions to large-scale, realistic scheduling and dispatch problems in electric power systems, which can translate into improved reliability and potentially lower costs for grid operations. 3. Benefit to the Public: Greater efficiency in power system operations leads to cost savings for utilities and end-users. Improved reliability and integration of advanced modeling approaches can facilitate the adoption of clean energy resources and better accommodate uncertainties in renewable generation. Because this technology could impact bulk power markets and reliability, these innovations have far-reaching public benefits in terms of cost savings, reliability, and sustainability.

24 POWER TRANSMISSION AND DISTRIBUTION↗
NASA NTRS2020

Spatiotemporal Characteristics of the Association between AOD and PM over the California Central Valley

Many air pollution health effects studies rely on exposure estimates of particulate matter (PM) concentrations derived from remote sensing observations of aerosol optical depth (AOD). Simple but robust calibration models between AOD and PM are therefore important for generating reliable PM exposures. We conduct an in-depth examination of the spatial and temporal characteristics of the AOD-PM2.5 relationship by leveraging data from the Distributed Regional Aerosol Gridded Observation Networks (DRAGON) field campaign where eight NASA Aerosol Robotic Network (AERONET) sites were co-located with EPA Air Quality System (AQS) monitoring sites in California’s Central Valley from November 2012 to April 2013. With this spatiotemporally rich data we found that linear calibration models (R(exp 2) = 0.35, RMSE = 10.38 µg/cu.m) were significantly improved when spatial (R(exp 2) = 0.45, RMSE = 9.54 µg/cu.m), temporal (R(exp 2) = 0.62, RMSE = 8.30 µg/cu.m), and spatiotemporal (R(exp 2) = 0.65, RMSE = 7.58 µg/cu.m) functions were included. As a use-case we applied the best spatiotemporal model to convert space-borne MultiAngle Imaging Spectroradiometer (MISR) AOD observations to predict PM2.5 over the region (R(exp 2) = 0.60, RMSE = 8.42 µg/cu.m). Our results imply that simple AERONET AOD-PM2.5 calibrations are robust and can be reliably applied to space-borne AOD observations, resulting in PM2.5 prediction surfaces for use in downstream applications.

Meytar Sorek-Hamer↗
DOE OSTI2025

Designing Future Energy Systems with Generative AI

Energy systems are experiencing various changes that impact the distribution, use, and reliability of energy. Local utilities and municipalities must respond and adapt to these changes, moving towards a future energy system with modernized infrastructure and other targeted investments and policy decisions. However, planning for and enacting these advancements requires significant effort from experts and engineers to develop strategies that ensure a reliable and secure energy future. This includes characterizing the current energy infrastructure, identifying areas for development, and engaging with local community members. Emerging generative artificial intelligence techniques can alleviate pain points and help support the development of the next generation of energy systems. Here, in this article, we highlight on-going generative AI work in the areas of atmospheric modeling, building energy management, and distribution network design, and we propose a vision for the role of generative AI that considers opportunities and identifies challenges inherent to this technology.

29 ENERGY PLANNING, POLICY, AND ECONOMY↗
DOE OSTI2025

A Framework for Assessing Economic and Environmental Trade-offs of Internalized Emission Costs in ERCOT Grid Planning

The power grid is on the cusp of a massive transition driven by three major areas: 1) the growth in demand for electricity, 2) efforts to decarbonize the United States economy, and 3) a desire to mitigate social disparities from the impact of electricity generation on local populations. However, most studies of the electricity sector do not include equity impacts in their models. This study seeks to do so by developing a comprehensive and generalizable model tailored to the Electric Reliability Council of Texas (ERCOT) grid, designed to incorporate the equity impacts of electricity generation in a decarbonized and resilient framework. To integrate equity into our research, we incorporate environmental externalities into our capacity expansion model of ERCOT. Specifically, we factor in intermediate-level local marginal damages of precursor pollutants (NH3, NOx, primary PM2.5, SO2, and VOC) and global pollutant CO2 into the cost of generating electricity. We do this by taking into account county population, county ambient pollution concentration, and generator emission rates. Leveraging open-source modeling tools, such as PowerGenome, pyGRETA, and GenX we construct a county-level model to account for these costs. We integrate these marginal damages into the variable operations and maintenance costs of generators, for both existing and potential future builds. This study’s findings suggest that the value of a dynamic social cost of carbon (SSC) will cover criteria pollutant marginal damages within the ERCOT grid and solar and wind is expected to increase out to 2035. Key metrics evaluated within this research include fuel mix distribution across technologies, transmission and grid infrastructure costs, CO2 emissions, local pollutants marginal damages, and the variation in generation capacity built by the model. These results and framework can be used to support grid decisions that explicitly include distributional and procedural equity within a decarbonized and sustainable grid framework.

24 POWER TRANSMISSION AND DISTRIBUTION↗
DOE OSTI2026

Incorporating Local Extreme Weather Events into Reliability Assessments

Presentation discussing modeling extreme weather effects on the Bulk power system. Using a Production cost model to analyze weather related demand increases, generator outages, transmission outages, and fuel supply constraints. These results can be analyzed to inform on system reliability effects of extreme weather. This presentation was developed for the 2026 NERC Probabilistic Assessment Forum at EPRI in Charlotte NC.

24 POWER TRANSMISSION AND DISTRIBUTION↗
DOE OSTI2026

Synthetic data-driven deep learning for label-free autonomous atomic force microscopy

Atomic force microscopy (AFM) is a widely used tool for nanoscale characterization across materials science, energy research, and biology. However, its adoption in high-throughput materials discovery and statistically driven studies remains limited by a strong dependence on expert operator input and by the scarcity of annotated experimental AFM datasets needed to enable data-driven automation. Here, we introduce SimuScan, a synthetic-data–driven framework that enables reliable AFM feature identification, segmentation, and targeted imaging without requiring large manually labeled experimental datasets. SimuScan generates tunable, high-fidelity synthetic AFM images of defined morphologies while incorporating realistic experimental artifacts, including tip–sample convolution, noise, flattening distortions, and surface debris. These datasets are shown to support scalable, label-free training of modern deep learning models for AFM analysis. When integrated into data-driven AFM workflows, SimuScan-trained models can locate and analyze nanoscale structures across large datasets and guide targeted follow-up imaging. We validate this approach on nanostructured surfaces, DNA assemblies, and bacterial cells, demonstrating robust generalization across diverse sample types with minimal operator intervention. More broadly, this work establishes a general strategy for generating explicitly conditioned, task-relevant synthetic data to improve the reliability of downstream models in autonomous microscopy.

Millan-Solsona, Ruben [Oak Ridge National Laborato↗
NASA NTRS1993

Automatic specification of reliability models for fault-tolerant computers

The calculation of reliability measures using Markov models is required for life-critical processor-memory-switch structures that have standby redundancy or that are subject to transient or intermittent faults or repair. The task of specifying these models is tedious and prone to human error because of the large number of states and transitions required in any reasonable system. Therefore, model specification is a major analysis bottleneck, and model verification is a major validation problem. The general unfamiliarity of computer architects with Markov modeling techniques further increases the necessity of automating the model specification. Automation requires a general system description language (SDL). For practicality, this SDL should also provide a high level of abstraction and be easy to learn and use. The first attempt to define and implement an SDL with those characteristics is presented. A program named Automated Reliability Modeling (ARM) was constructed as a research vehicle. The ARM program uses a graphical interface as its SDL, and it outputs a Markov reliability model specification formulated for direct use by programs that generate and evaluate the model.

Liceaga, Carlos A.↗
DOE OSTI2025

Probabilistic Deliverability Assessment of Distributed Energy Resources via Scenario-Based AC Optimal Power Flow

As electric grids decarbonize and distributed energy resources (DERs) become increasingly prevalent, interconnection assessments must evolve to reflect operational variability and control flexibility. This paper highlights key modeling limitations observed in practice and reviews approaches for modeling uncertainty. It then introduces a Probabilistic Deliverability Assessment (PDA) framework designed to complement and extend existing procedures. The framework integrates scenario-based AC optimal power flow (AC OPF), corrective dispatch, and optional multi-temporal constraints. Together, these form a structured methodology for quantifying DER utilization, deliverability, and reliability under uncertainty in load, generation, and topology. Outputs include interpretable metrics with confidence intervals that inform siting decisions and evaluate compliance with reliability thresholds across sampled operating conditions. A case study on Puerto Rico’s publicly available bulk power system model demonstrates the framework’s application using minimal input data, consistent with current interconnection practice. Across staged fossil generation retirements, the PDA identifies high-value DER sites and regions requiring additional reactive power support. Results are presented through mean dispatch signals, reliability metrics, and geospatial visualizations, demonstrating how the framework provides transparent, data-driven siting recommendations. The framework’s modular design supports incremental adoption within existing workflows, encouraging broader use of AC OPF in interconnection and planning contexts.

14 SOLAR ENERGY↗
NASA NTRS1981

The SYSGEN user package

The user documentation of the SYSGEN model and its links with other simulations is described. The SYSGEN is a production costing and reliability model of electric utility systems. Hydroelectric, storage, and time dependent generating units are modeled in addition to conventional generating plants. Input variables, modeling options, output variables, and reports formats are explained. SYSGEN also can be run interactively by using a program called FEPS (Front End Program for SYSGEN). A format for SYSGEN input variables which is designed for use with FEPS is presented.

Carlson, C. R.↗
DOE OSTI2024

On-demand nanoengineering of in-plane ferroelectric topologies

Hierarchical assemblies of ferroelectric nanodomains, so-called super-domains, can exhibit exotic morphologies that lead to distinct behaviours. Controlling these super-domains reliably is critical for realizing states with desired functional properties. Here we reveal the super-switching mechanism by using a biased atomic force microscopy tip, that is, the switching of the in-plane super-domains, of a model ferroelectric Pb 0.6 Sr 0.4 TiO 3 . We demonstrate that the writing process is dominated by a super-domain nucleation and stabilization process. A complex scanning-probe trajectory enables on-demand formation of intricate centre-divergent, centre-convergent and flux-closure polar structures. Correlative piezoresponse force microscopy and optical spectroscopy confirm the topological nature and tunability of the emergent structures. The precise and versatile nanolithography in a ferroic material and the stability of the generated structures, also validated by phase-field modelling, suggests potential for reliable multi-state nanodevice architectures and, thereby, an alternative route for the creation of tunable topological structures for applications in neuromorphic circuits.

77 NANOSCIENCE AND NANOTECHNOLOGY↗
NASA NTRS1994

Software reliability studies

There are many software reliability models which try to predict future performance of software based on data generated by the debugging process. Our research has shown that by improving the quality of the data one can greatly improve the predictions. We are working on methodologies which control some of the randomness inherent in the standard data generation processes in order to improve the accuracy of predictions. Our contribution is twofold in that we describe an experimental methodology using a data structure called the debugging graph and apply this methodology to assess the robustness of existing models. The debugging graph is used to analyze the effects of various fault recovery orders on the predictive accuracy of several well-known software reliability algorithms. We found that, along a particular debugging path in the graph, the predictive performance of different models can vary greatly. Similarly, just because a model 'fits' a given path's data well does not guarantee that the model would perform well on a different path. Further we observed bug interactions and noted their potential effects on the predictive process. We saw that not only do different faults fail at different rates, but that those rates can be affected by the particular debugging stage at which the rates are evaluated. Based on our experiment, we conjecture that the accuracy of a reliability prediction is affected by the fault recovery order as well as by fault interaction.

Hoppa, Mary Ann↗
NASA NTRS1984

Prediction Model for the Life of Nickel-cadmium Batteries in Geosynchronous Orbit Satellites

A mathematical model is described which predicts the service life of nickel-cadmium batteries designed for geosynchronous orbit satellites. Regression analysis technique is used to analyze orbital data on second generation trickle charged batteries. The model gives average cell voltage as a function of design parameters, operating parameters and time. The voltage model has the properties of providing a good fit to the data, good predictive capability, and agreement with known battery performance characteristics. Average cell voltage can be predicted to within 0.02 volts for up to 8 years. This modeling shows that these batteries will operate reliably for 10 years. Third-generation batteries are expected to operate even longer.

Engleman, J. H.↗
DOE OSTI2026

Reliable Protection for an Inverter-Based Resources Dominant Grid: Technology Development and Field Demonstration

The project aimed to address the challenges posed by the rapid growth of inverter-based resources (IBR) such as solar, wind, and battery storage, which have fundamentally changed fault behavior, system strength, and protection performance in bulk power systems. Traditional protection schemes, designed for synchronous generator-dominated grids, are inadequate under high IBR penetration. Overall, the project materially advances protection modeling and simulation capabilities needed to maintain reliable grid protection under high IBR penetration. The results build utility confidence in operating power systems safely and reliably across a wide range of generation mixes, supporting grid modernization goals.

24 POWER TRANSMISSION AND DISTRIBUTION↗
NASA NTRS1993

Containerless measurements on liquids at high temperatures

The application of containerless techniques for measurements of the thermophysical properties of high temperature liquids is reviewed. Recent results obtained in the materials research laboratories at Intersonics are also presented. Work to measure high temperature liquid properties is motivated by both the need for reliable property data for modeling of industrial processes involving molten materials and generation of data form basic modeling of materials behavior. The motivation for this work and examples of variations in thermophysical property values from the literature are presented. The variations may be attributed to changes in the specimen properties caused by chemical changes in the specimen and/or to measurement errors. The two methods used to achieve containerless conditions were aeroacoustic levitation and electromagnetic levitation. Their qualities are presented. The accompanying slides show the layout of levitation equipment and present examples of levitated metallic and ceramic specimens. Containerless techniques provide a high degree of control over specimen chemistry, nucleation and allow precise control of liquid composition to be achieved. Effects of minor additions can thus be measured in a systematic way. Operation in reduced gravity enables enhanced control of liquid motion which can allow measurement of liquid transport properties. Examples of nucleation control, the thermodynamics of oxide contamination removal, and control of the chromium content of liquid aluminum oxide by high temperature containerless processes are presented. The feasibility of measuring temperature, emissivity, liquidus temperature, enthalpy, surface tension, density, viscosity, and thermal diffusivity are discussed in the final section of the paper.

Weber, Richard↗
DOE OSTI2026

Stochastic Microgrid Scheduling With Chance‐Constrained Resilience Consideration

Traditionally, it is assumed that microgrids transition seamlessly from grid‐connected operation to islanded mode in the event of sudden main grid outages. In reality, the islanding process, especially unintentional islanding, is rarely seamless. Instead, it is subject to voltage and frequency fluctuations caused by the instantaneous disconnection of the point of common coupling (PCC) switch, variations in loads and renewable generation output and even the protection tripping of distributed energy resources (DERs). To mitigate these fluctuations and facilitate a smooth islanding process, we propose a stochastic microgrid scheduling model that incorporates chance‐constrained resilience measures. Specifically, the resilience measure is defined as the probability of successful islanding (PSI), that is, the probability that a microgrid can mitigate the generation‐demand imbalance caused by the disconnection of the PCC switch, variations in load and renewable generation and DER tripping. This measure is modelled using chance constraints. Unlike existing reliability and resilience indices, which typically neglect the possibility of microgrid/DER failure under extreme events and assume their survival while primarily focussing on reducing impact duration or magnitude, the proposed PSI‐based framework explicitly addresses microgrid and DER survival during the islanding transition. The formulated nonlinear chance constraints are approximated using a multiinterval approach and equivalently represented as a mixed‐integer linear programming (MILP) formulation. Case study results validate the proposed method, showing that the PSI estimation error is reduced to less than 8%, compared to approximately 28% with existing methods. Various sensitivity analyses on the DER tripping rate and PSI settings were performed to validate the robustness of the proposed method. In particular, the necessity of accounting for DER tripping in the PSI calculation was demonstrated.

chance constrained optimization↗
DOE OSTI2026

SmileyLlama: modifying large language models for directed chemical space exploration

Here we show that large language models (LLMs) can be transformed via supervised fine-tuning of engineered prompts into SmileyLlama for exploring the chemical space of drug molecules. We benchmark SmileyLlama against pretrained LLMs and chemical language models trained from scratch for generating valid and novel drug-like molecules, and use direct preference optimization to both improve SmileyLlama’s adherence to a prompt and as part of the iMiner reinforcement learning framework to predict molecules with optimized three-dimensional conformations and high binding affinity to drug targets. By training an LLM to speak directly as a chemical language model, while retaining most of its natural language capabilities, we show that SmileyLlama can reliably generate molecules with user-specified properties rather than acting only as a chatbot with knowledge of chemistry or as a virtual assistant. While SmileyLlama is geared toward drug discovery, the supervised fine-tuning/direct preference optimization/LLM framework can be extended to other chemical, biological and materials applications.

37 INORGANIC, ORGANIC, PHYSICAL, AND ANALYTICAL CH↗