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Mass and Reliability System (MaRS)

The Safety and Mission Assurance (S&MA) Directorate is responsible for mitigating risk, providing system safety, and lowering risk for space programs from ground to space. The S&MA is divided into 4 divisions: The Space Exploration Division (NC), the International Space Station Division (NE), the Safety & Test Operations Division (NS), and the Quality and Flight Equipment Division (NT). The interns, myself and Arun Aruljothi, will be working with the Risk & Reliability Analysis Branch under the NC Division's. The mission of this division is to identify, characterize, diminish, and communicate risk by implementing an efficient and effective assurance model. The team utilizes Reliability and Maintainability (R&M) and Probabilistic Risk Assessment (PRA) to ensure decisions concerning risks are informed, vehicles are safe and reliable, and program/project requirements are realistic and realized. This project pertains to the Orion mission, so it is geared toward a long duration Human Space Flight Program(s). For space missions, payload is a critical concept; balancing what hardware can be replaced by components verse by Orbital Replacement Units (ORU) or subassemblies is key. For this effort a database was created that combines mass and reliability data, called Mass and Reliability System or MaRS. The U.S. International Space Station (ISS) components are used as reference parts in the MaRS database. Using ISS components as a platform is beneficial because of the historical context and the environment similarities to a space flight mission. MaRS uses a combination of systems: International Space Station PART for failure data, Vehicle Master Database (VMDB) for ORU & components, Maintenance & Analysis Data Set (MADS) for operation hours and other pertinent data, & Hardware History Retrieval System (HHRS) for unit weights. MaRS is populated using a Visual Basic Application. Once populated, the excel spreadsheet is comprised of information on ISS components including: operation hours, random/nonrandom failures, software/hardware failures, quantity, orbital replaceable units (ORU), date of placement, unit weight, frequency of part, etc. The motivation for creating such a database will be the development of a mass/reliability parametric model to estimate mass required for replacement parts. Once complete, engineers working on future space flight missions will have access a mean time to failures and on parts along with their mass, this will be used to make proper decisions for long duration space flight missions

Barnes, Sarah↗

Climate and the Global Famine of 1876-78

From 1875 to 1878, concurrent multiyear droughts in Asia, Brazil, and Africa, referred to as the Great Drought, caused widespread crop failures, catalyzing the so-called Global Famine, which had fatalities exceeding 50 million people and long-lasting societal consequences. Observations, paleoclimate reconstructions, and climate model simulations are used 1) to demonstrate the severity and characterize the evolution of drought across different regions, and 2) to investigate the underlying mechanisms driving its multiyear persistence. Severe or record-setting droughts occurred on continents in both hemispheres and in multiple seasons, with the "Monsoon Asia" region being the hardest hit, experiencing the single most intense and the second most expansive drought in the last 800 years. The extreme severity, duration, and extent of this global event is associated with an extraordinary combination of preceding cool tropical Pacific conditions (1870-76), a record-breaking El Nino (1877-78), a record strong Indian Ocean dipole (1877), and record warm North Atlantic Ocean (1878) conditions. Composites of historical analogs and two sets of ensemble simulations - one forced with global sea surface temperatures (SSTs) and another forced with tropical Pacific SST - were used to distinguish the role of the extreme conditions in different ocean basins. While the drought in most regions was largely driven by the tropical Pacific SST conditions, an extreme positive phase of the Indian Ocean dipole and warm North Atlantic SSTs, both likely aided by the strong El Nino in 1877-78, intensified and prolonged droughts in Australia and Brazil, respectively, and extended the impact to northern and southeastern Africa. Climatic conditions that caused the Great Drought and Global Famine arose from natural variability, and their recurrence, with hydrological impacts intensified by global warming, could again potentially undermine global food security.

multi-year drought↗

WATCHMAN: A Data Warehouse Intelligent Cache Manager

Data warehouses store large volumes of data which are used frequently by decision support applications. Such applications involve complex queries. Query performance in such an environment is critical because decision support applications often require interactive query response time. Because data warehouses are updated infrequently, it becomes possible to improve query performance by caching sets retrieved by queries in addition to query execution plans. In this paper we report on the design of an intelligent cache manager for sets retrieved by queries called WATCHMAN, which is particularly well suited for data warehousing environment. Our cache manager employs two novel, complementary algorithms for cache replacement and for cache admission. WATCHMAN aims at minimizing query response time and its cache replacement policy swaps out entire retrieved sets of queries instead of individual pages. The cache replacement and admission algorithms make use of a profit metric, which considers for each retrieved set its average rate of reference, its size, and execution cost of the associated query. We report on a performance evaluation based on the TPC-D and Set Query benchmarks. These experiments show that WATCHMAN achieves a substantial performance improvement in a decision support environment when compared to a traditional LRU replacement algorithm.

Scheuermann, Peter↗

Stereo imaging with spaceborne radars

Stereo viewing is a valuable tool in photointerpretation and is used for the quantitative reconstruction of the three dimensional shape of a topographical surface. Stereo viewing refers to a visual perception of space by presenting an overlapping image pair to an observer so that a three dimensional model is formed in the brain. Some of the observer's function is performed by machine correlation of the overlapping images - so called automated stereo correlation. The direct perception of space with two eyes is often called natural binocular vision; techniques of generating three dimensional models of the surface from two sets of monocular image measurements is the topic of stereology.

Leberl, F.↗

Effect of model uncertainty on failure detection - The threshold selector

The performance of all failure detection, isolation, and accomodation (DIA) algorithms is influenced by the presence of model uncertainty. A unique framework is presented to incorporate a knowledge of modeling error in the analysis and design of failure detection systems. The tools being used are very similar to those in robust control theory. A concept is introduced called the threshold selector, which is a nonlinear inequality whose solution defines the set of detectable sensor failure signals. The threshold selector represents an innovative tool for analysis and synthesis of DIA algorithms. It identifies the optimal threshold to be used in innovations-based DIA algorithms. The optimal threshold is shown to be a function of the bound on modeling errors, the noise properties, the speed of DIA filters, and the classes of reference and failure signals. The size of the smallest detectable failure is also determined. The results are applied to a multivariable turbofan jet engine example, which demonstrates improvements compared to previous studies.

Emami-Naeini, Abbas↗

Tactical Surface Metering Procedures for Charlotte Douglas International Airport

NASA has been collaborating with the Federal Aviation Administration (FAA) and aviation industry partners to develop and demonstrate new concepts and technologies for the Integrated Arrival, Departure, and Surface (IADS) traffic management capabilities under the Airspace Technology Demonstration 2 (ATD-2) project. The primary goal of the ATD-2 project is to improve the predictability and the operational efficiency of the air traffic system in metroplex environments while maintaining or improving throughput by enhancing and integrating arrival, departure and surface prediction, scheduling, and management systems. In the Phase 1 Baseline IADS Demonstration, the tactical surface scheduling capability and the user interfaces for ramp controllers and ramp traffic managers were implemented for ramp operations. The purpose of the tactical surface scheduling capability is to provide the airline ramp controller with aircraft pushback advisories that prevent surface congestion and to respond to surface and airspace constraints that become known over relatively short time horizons. For this purpose, the tactical surface metering tool first estimates the capacity of current and near-future runway resources from flight schedule and surveillance data. With demand forecasts and predicted taxi trajectories, this tool computes an efficient runway schedule of aircraft in the planning horizon based on their readiness, Earliest Off-Block Times (EOBTs), and a ration by schedule (RBS) rule. Details on the implementation of the Tactical Surface Metering tool will be provided in the full paper. Both pushback and recommended hold times advisories provided by this surface metering tool are shown on the user interfaces for the ramp controller and the ramp traffic manager, called Ramp Traffic Console (RTC) and Ramp Manager Traffic Console (RMTC), respectively. There is excess queue time in the system due to demand capacity imbalance, this time can be taken as a hold on the runway queue or at the gate and was referred to as the Metering Value. This metering value can be adjusted by the Ramp Manager in collaboration with Air Traffic Controller-Tower Traffic Management Coordinator (TMC). They selected a set of metering values as default values for the tool during human-in-the-loop simulation. As the metering value increases, there is a decrease in the gate hold and increase in the queue time at the runway. Procedures and Information needs related to managing the surface metering procedures were researched in the simulated environment. These procedures will be compared to the procedures adopted at Charlotte Douglas International Airport when the tools were deployed and adopted in November 2017 for one departure push bank per day. Feedback regarding initial issues, information needs such as the need to see EOBTs on the flight data tags and how they compare to scheduled times will also be discussed in the full paper. Initial results will be provided regarding the choice of the metering value and how it was adjusted on a daily basis and what procedures evolved will also be presented in the paper.

surface metering↗

Towards a machine-readable literature: finding relevant papers based on an uploaded powder diffraction pattern

A prototype application for machine-readable literature is investigated. The program is called pyDataRecognition and serves as an example of a data-driven literature search, where the literature search query is an experimental data set provided by the user. The user uploads a powder pattern together with the radiation wavelength. The program compares the user data to a database of existing powder patterns associated with published papers and produces a rank ordered according to their similarity score. The program returns the digital object identifier and full reference of top-ranked papers together with a stack plot of the user data alongside the top-five database entries. The paper describes the approach and explores successes and challenges.

37 INORGANIC, ORGANIC, PHYSICAL, AND ANALYTICAL CH↗

The Flexible Lunar Architecture for Exploration (FLARE): Designed for the Artemis-3 Moon 2024 Mission and Beyond

The Flexible Lunar Architecture for Exploration (FLARE) is a concept to deliver four crew to the lunar surface for 7 to 14 days and then return them safely to Earth by 2024. This meets NASA’s internal 2024 lunar landing deadline directed by President Trump (Trump, 2017) and the “5-year” goal set forth by Vice President Pence (Pence, 2019). FLARE is an alternative to NASA’s Human Landing System reference architecture from the Design Analysis Cycle (DAC) #2 (NASA, 2019b). The minimum FLARE concept uses one Space Launch System launch, one Orion, one European Service Module (ESM), and one human lander to deliver four crew to the Moon for a minimum surface duration of 7 days and return them to Earth. FLARE adds a new capability, called the SpaceTug, based upon the mature and successful United Launch Alliance “Common” Centaur Upper Stage vehicle, with modifications. In FLARE, the SpaceTug provides propulsion needed to return the Orion+ESM from the Moon to Earth. The SpaceTug also provides propulsion to deliver the human lander Descent Element (DE) and Ascent Element (AE) separately to lunar orbit. The Orion+ESM then completes a rendezvous with the mated DE+AE in lunar orbit. FLARE also offers optional phases to the Moon 2024 mission. The SpaceTug can also deliver components of the planned Gateway - including the Power and Propulsion Element and the Habitation and Logistics Outpost - to lunar orbit; however, the planned FLARE destination is a Low Lunar Frozen Polar Orbit unlike the NASA DAC2 plan for a Near Rectilinear Halo Orbit. FLARE also provides an option to deliver precursor equipment - including a habitation module, crew mobility devices and an In-Situ Resource Utilization demonstration - to the lunar surface for enhanced crew exploration and science with the extended 14-day surface mission.

Commercial Launch Vehicles (CLV)↗

Transferability of data-driven, many-body models for CO 2 simulations in the vapor and liquid phases

Here, extending on the previous work by Riera et al. [J. Chem. Theory Comput. 16, 2246–2257 (2020)], we introduce a second generation family of data-driven many-body MB-nrg models for CO 2 and systematically assess how the strength and anisotropy of the CO 2 –CO 2 interactions affect the models’ ability to predict vapor, liquid, and vapor–liquid equilibrium properties. Building upon the many-body expansion formalism, we construct a series of MB-nrg models by fitting one-body and two-body reference energies calculated at the coupled cluster level of theory for large monomer and dimer training sets. Advancing from the first generation models, we employ the charge model 5 scheme to determine the atomic charges and systematically scale the two-body energies to obtain more accurate descriptions of vapor, liquid, and vapor–liquid equilibrium properties. Challenges in model construction arise due to the anisotropic nature and small magnitude of the interaction energies in CO 2 , calling for the necessity of highly accurate descriptions of the multidimensional energy landscape of liquid CO 2 . These findings emphasize the key role played by the training set quality in the development of transferable, data-driven models, which, accurately representing high-dimensional many-body effects, can enable predictive computer simulations of molecular fluids across the entire phase diagram.

37 INORGANIC, ORGANIC, PHYSICAL, AND ANALYTICAL CH↗

Deep Space Systems Technology Program Future Deliveries

NASA is in a period of frequent launches of low cost deep space missions with challenging performance needs. The modest budgets of these missions make it impossible for each to develop its own technology, therefore, efficient and effective development and insertion of technology for these missions must be approached at a higher level than has been done in the past. The Deep Space Systems Technology Program (DSST), often referred to as X2000, has been formed to address this need. The program is divided into a series of "Deliveries" that develop and demonstrate a set of spacecraft system capabilities with broad applicability for use by multiple missions. The First Delivery Project, to be completed in 2001, will provide a one MRAD-tolerant flight computer, power switching electronics, efficient radioisotope power source, and a transponder with services at 8.4 GHz and 32 GHz bands. Plans call for a Second Delivery in late 2003 to enable complete deep space systems in the 10 to 50 kg class, and a Third Delivery built around Systems on a Chip (extreme levels of electronic and microsystems integration) around 2006. Formulation of Future Deliveries (past the First Delivery) is ongoing and includes plans for such developments as highly miniaturized digital/analog/power electronics, optical communications, multifunctional structures, miniature lightweight propulsion, advanced thermal control techniques, highly efficient radioisotope power sources, and a unified flight ground software architecture to support the needs of future highly intelligent space systems. All developments are targeted at broad applicability and reuse, and will be commercialized within the US.

Salvo, Christopher G.↗

Reduced-order filtering for flexible space structures

There is a need for feedback control of the large flexible space structures which are going to be increasingly important in the future of the space program. These structures are very lightly damped, and vibrations may persist for a long time when the system is disturbed unless an active feedback control strategy is used to damp out the vibrations. The system is best described by a partial differential equation description, but the more common approach is to use a large set of second order differential equations, where a large number of modes must be retained if the mathematics is to provide an adequate description of the dynamical process. Sensors, such as accelerometers and rate gyros, may provide data to the feedback controller so that it may respond appropriately to control the system. The data from the sensors is not perfect, but is subject to noise, called measurement noise, and the dynamical process itself is subject to disturbances referred to as process noise. Filtering the sensor signals to remove the measurement noise, and using the resulting state estimates to control the system are investigated.

Sims, Craig S.↗

A count probability cookbok: Spurious effects and the scaling model

We study the errors brought by finite volume effects and dilution effects on the practical determination of the count probability distribution function P(sub N)(n,l), which is the probability of having N objects in a cell of volume l cubed for a set of average number density n. Dilution effects are particularly revelant to the so-called sparse sampling strategy. This work is mainly done in the framework of the Bailan & Schaeffer scaling model, which assumes that the Q-body correlation functions obey the scaling relation Xi(sub Q)(lambda r(sub l),....lambda r(sub Q) = lambda(exp -(Q-1)gamma) Xi(sub Q)(r(sub 1),....r(sub Q)). We use three synthetic samples as references to perform our analysis: a fractal generated by a Rayleigh-Levy random walk with approximately 3 x 10(exp 4) objects, a sample dominated by a spherical power-law cluster with approximately 3 x 10(exp 4) objects and a cold dark matter (CDM) universe involving approximately 3 x 10(exp 5) matter particles.

Colombi, S.↗

Plateau Phenomenon in Gradient Descent Training of RELU Networks: Explanation, Quantification, and Avoidance

The ability of neural networks to provide ‘best in class’ approximation across a wide range of applications is well-documented. Nevertheless, the powerful expressivity of neural networks comes to naught if one is unable to effectively train (choose) the parameters defining the network. In general, neural networks are trained by gradient descent type optimization methods,a stochastic variant thereof. In practice, such methods result in the loss function decreases rapidly at the beginning of training but then, after a relatively small number of steps, significantly slow down. The loss may even appear to stagnate over the period of a large number of epochs, only to then suddenly start to decrease fast again for no apparent reason. This so-called plateau phenomenon manifests itself in many learning tasks. The present work aims to identify and quantify the root causes of plateau phenomenon.analysis is carried out in the setting of univariate ReLU networks. No assumptions are made on the number of neurons relative to the number of training data, and our results hold for both the lazy and adaptive regimes. Here, the main findings are: plateaux correspond to periods during which activation patterns remain constant, where activation pattern refers to the number of data points that activate a given neuron; quantification of convergence of the gradient flow dynamics; and, characterization stationary points in terms solutions of local least squares regression lines over subsets of the training data. Based on these conclusions, we propose a new iterative training method, the Active Neuron Least Squares (ANLS), characterised by the explicit adjustment of the activation pattern at each step, which is designed to enable a quick exit from a plateau. Illustrative numerical examples are included throughout.

97 MATHEMATICS AND COMPUTING↗

Computer Based Training: Field Deployable Trainer and Shared Virtual Reality

Astronaut training has traditionally been conducted at specific sites with specialized facilities. Because of its size and nature the training equipment is generally not portable. Efforts are now under way to develop training tools that can be taken to remote locations, including into orbit. Two of these efforts are the Field Deployable Trainer and Shared Virtual Reality projects. Field Deployable Trainer NASA has used the recent shuttle mission by astronaut Shannon Lucid to the Russian space station, Mir, as an opportunity to develop and test a prototype of an on-orbit computer training system. A laptop computer with a customized user interface, a set of specially prepared CD's, and video tapes were taken to the Mir by Ms. Lucid. Based upon the feedback following the launch of the Lucid flight, our team prepared materials for the next Mir visitor. Astronaut John Blaha will fly on NASA/MIR Long Duration Mission 3, set to launch in mid September. He will take with him a customized hard disk drive and a package of compact disks containing training videos, references and maps. The FDT team continues to explore and develop new and innovative ways to conduct offsite astronaut training using personal computers. Shared Virtual Reality Training NASA's Space Flight Training Division has been investigating the use of virtual reality environments for astronaut training. Recent efforts have focused on activities requiring interaction by two or more people, called shared VR. Dr. Bowen Loftin, from the University of Houston, directs a virtual reality laboratory that conducts much of the NASA sponsored research. I worked on a project involving the development of a virtual environment that can be used to train astronauts and others to operate a science unit called a Biological Technology Facility (BTF). Facilities like this will be used to house and control microgravity experiments on the space station. It is hoped that astronauts and instructors will ultimately be able to share common virtual environments and, using telephone links, conduct interactive training from separate locations.

Mullen, Terence J.↗

Speeding genomic island discovery through systematic design of reference database composition

Background Genomic islands (GIs) are mobile genetic elements that integrate site-specifically into bacterial chromosomes, bearing genes that affect phenotypes such as pathogenicity and metabolism. GIs typically occur sporadically among related bacterial strains, enabling comparative genomic approaches to GI identification. For a candidate GI in a query genome, the number of reference genomes with a precise deletion of the GI serves as a support value for the GI. Our comparative software for GI identification was slowed by our original use of large reference genome databases (DBs). Here we explore smaller species-focused DBs. Results With increasing DB size, recovery of our reliable prophage GI calls reached a plateau, while recovery of less reliable GI calls (FPs) increased rapidly as DB sizes exceeded ~500 genomes; i.e., overlarge DBs can increase FP rates. Paradoxically, relative to prophages, FPs were both more frequently supported only by genomes outside the species and more frequently supported only by genomes inside the species; this may be due to their generally lower support values. Setting a DB size limit for our SMA ll R anked T ailored (SMART) DB design speeded runtime ~65-fold. Strictly intra-species DBs would tend to lower yields of prophages for small species (with few genomes available); simulations with large species showed that this could be partially overcome by reaching outside the species to closely related taxa, without an FP burden. Employing such taxonomic outreach in DB design generated redundancy in the DB set; as few as 2984 DBs were needed to cover all 47894 prokaryotic species. Conclusions Runtime decreased dramatically with SMART DB design, with only minor losses of prophages. We also describe potential utility in other comparative genomics projects.

59 BASIC BIOLOGICAL SCIENCES↗

Theoretical and Observational Determination of Global and Regional Radiation Budget, Forcing and Feedbacks at the Top-of-Atmosphere and Surface

Report consists of: 1. List of accomplishments 2. List of publications 3. Abstracts of published or submitted papers and 4. Subject invention disclosure. The accomplishments of the grant listed are: 1. Improved the third-order turbulence closure in cloud resolving models to remove the liquid water oscillation. 2. Used the University of California-Los Angeles (UCLA) large-eddy simulation (LES) model to provide data for radiation transfer testing. 3. Revised shortwave k-distribution models based on HITRAN 2000. 4. Developed a gamma-weighted two-stream radiative transfer model for radiation budget estimate applications. 5. Estimated the effect of spherical geometry to the earth radiation budget. 6. Estimated top-of-atmosphere irradiance over snow and sea ice surfaces. 7. Estimated the aerosol direct radiative effect at the top of the atmosphere. 8. Estimated the top-of-atmosphere reflectance of the clear-sky molecular atmosphere over ocean. 9. Developed and validated new set of Angular Distribution Models for the CERES TRMM satellite instrument (tropical) 10. Developed and validated new set of Angular Distribution Models for the CERES Terra satellite instrument (global) 11. Quantified the top-of-atmosphere direct radiative effect of aerosols over global oceans from merged CERES and MODIS observations 12 Clarified the definition of TOA flux reference level for radiation budget studies 13. Developed new algorithm for unfaltering CERES measured radiances 14. Used multiangle POLDER measurements to produce narrowband angular distribution models and examine the effect of scene identification errors on TOA albedo estimates 15. Developed and validated a novel algorithm called the Multidirectional Reflectance Matching (MRM) model for inferring TOA albedos from ice clouds using multi-angle satellite measurements. 16. Developed and validated a novel algorithm called the Multidirectional Polarized Reflectance Matching (MPRM) model for inferring particle shapes from ice clouds using multi-angle polarized satellite measurements. 17. Developed 4 advanced light scattering models including the three-dimensional (3D) uniaxial perfectly matched layer (UPML) finite-difference time-domain (FDTD) model. 18. Develop sunglint in situ measurement and study reflectance distribution in the sunglint area. 19. Lead a balloon-borne radiometer TOA albedo validation effort. 20. Developed a CERES surface UVB, UVA, and UV index product.

Loeb, Norman G.↗

Parallel Implementation of the Recursive Approximation of an Unsupervised Hierarchical Segmentation Algorithm

The hierarchical image segmentation algorithm (referred to as HSEG) is a hybrid of hierarchical step-wise optimization (HSWO) and constrained spectral clustering that produces a hierarchical set of image segmentations. HSWO is an iterative approach to region grooving segmentation in which the optimal image segmentation is found at N(sub R) regions, given a segmentation at N(sub R+1) regions. HSEG's addition of constrained spectral clustering makes it a computationally intensive algorithm, for all but, the smallest of images. To counteract this, a computationally efficient recursive approximation of HSEG (called RHSEG) has been devised. Further improvements in processing speed are obtained through a parallel implementation of RHSEG. This chapter describes this parallel implementation and demonstrates its computational efficiency on a Landsat Thematic Mapper test scene.

Tilton, James C.↗

System engineering toolbox for design-oriented engineers

This system engineering toolbox is designed to provide tools and methodologies to the design-oriented systems engineer. A tool is defined as a set of procedures to accomplish a specific function. A methodology is defined as a collection of tools, rules, and postulates to accomplish a purpose. For each concept addressed in the toolbox, the following information is provided: (1) description, (2) application, (3) procedures, (4) examples, if practical, (5) advantages, (6) limitations, and (7) bibliography and/or references. The scope of the document includes concept development tools, system safety and reliability tools, design-related analytical tools, graphical data interpretation tools, a brief description of common statistical tools and methodologies, so-called total quality management tools, and trend analysis tools. Both relationship to project phase and primary functional usage of the tools are also delineated. The toolbox also includes a case study for illustrative purposes. Fifty-five tools are delineated in the text.

Goldberg, B. E.↗