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All sourcesNASA NTRSDOE OSTI
NASA NTRS2010

Analysis of Variance in the Modern Design of Experiments

This paper is a tutorial introduction to the analysis of variance (ANOVA), intended as a reference for aerospace researchers who are being introduced to the analytical methods of the Modern Design of Experiments (MDOE), or who may have other opportunities to apply this method. One-way and two-way fixed-effects ANOVA, as well as random effects ANOVA, are illustrated in practical terms that will be familiar to most practicing aerospace researchers.

Deloach, Richard↗
DOE OSTI2022

Stochastic Modeling in a Multimaterial Continuum Mixture Shock Physics Code

Stochastic modelling approaches are presented to capture random effects at multiple time and length scales. Random processes that occur at the microscale produce nondeterministic effects at the macroscale. Here we present three stochastic modeling approaches that describe random processes at microscopic length scales and map these processes to the macroscopic length scale. The first stochastic modeling approach is based upon a particle based numerical technique to solve a Stochastic Differential Equation (SDE) using an arbitrary diffusion process to capture random processes at the microstructural level. The second approach prescribes a Probability Density Function (PDF) for the drift and diffusion of the random variable derived using the forward and backward Kolmogorov equations. This method requires mean and drift evolution PDF transport equations. The third approach is the coupling of multiple random variables which are dependent on each other. The relationship of the PDFs and a coupling function, known as a copula, produces a Joint Probability Density Function (JPDF). These stochastic modeling approaches are implemented into a Multiple Component (MC) shock physics computational code and used to model statistical fracture and reactive flow applications.

71 CLASSICAL AND QUANTUM MECHANICS, GENERAL PHYSIC↗
NASA NTRSDate not supplied

Intracranial Effects of Intermittent Lower Body Negative Pressure with Head Down Tilt Bed Rest: Comparison to Upright Posture

INTRODUCTION Spaceflight-associated neuro-ocular syndrome (SANS) affects a majority of astronauts during long-duration spaceflight. SANS is hypothesized to result from an unrelenting headward fluid shift that occurs in the microgravity environment. Altered intracranial structure and physiology documented in spaceflight and head-down tilt (HDT) experiments(1, 2) are also theorized to be related to chronic headward fluid shift and thereby can provide an independent quantitative assessment related to this mechanism. As a potential countermeasure, lower body negative pressure (LBNP) applied in the supine posture has shown efficacy in reducing headward fluid shift(3). However, it remains unknown if intermittent LBNP simulating daily upright posture fluid redistribution can mitigate SANS and intracranial changes associated with long-duration spaceflight. The goal of this study was to quantify the effects of daily application of LBNP or daily exposure to the upright posture on intracranial structure and physiology during long-term HDT in order to evaluate the potential efficacy of LBNP as a countermeasure to SANS. METHODS 22 healthy volunteers (11 men; 11 women; mean age = 35 years (SD=9.2)(age range = 24 to 52 years); mean BMI = 24.0 kg/m2 (SD=2.8)) completed an MRI study performed at the German Aerospace Facility in Cologne, Germany. Strict six-degree head-down tilt (HDT) bedrest was used as a spaceflight analog to induce a continuous headward fluid shift for 30 days. The subjects were divided equally into two groups of interventions: 1) LBNP for 3-hour sessions twice daily and 2) seated position for 3-hour sessions twice daily. Interventions were divided into morning and afternoon sessions for both groups. The LBNP intervention was maintained at 25 mmHg  2 mmHg. Pulse-gated MRI phase-contrast flow imaging was used to quantify cerebral artery stroke volume (CASV) and peak-to-peak cerebral spinal fluid (CSF) velocity (CSFVp-p) within the cerebral aqueduct. A 3D T1-MPRAGE sequence was used to quantify volumetric changes of the brain and intracranial CSF spaces using MRI Cloud software. MRI acquisitions were obtained at baseline (BDC, supine posture), 15 days into HDT (HDT15), 29 days into HDT (HDT29), and 12 days after recovery (R12, supine posture). The data were analyzed by a mixed model, which included intervention, time (four nominal levels BDC, HDT15, HDT29, R12), and intervention-time interaction as the fixed effects and included subject as a random effect. RESULTS Compared to BDC there was no statistically significant difference in CASV and CSFVp-p during HDT except for CASV at HDT29 (seated group) where there was a 1.7 mL (12%) decrease (P<0.01). Compared to BDC there was a statistically significant increase in intracranial volume (ICV; ICV = white matter + gray matter + CSF) for both interventions at HDT15 (Δ13 mL, 0.9 % (LBNP group); Δ15 mL, 1.0%, (seated group)) and HDT29 (Δ19 mL, 1.2%, (LBNP group); Δ23 mL, 1.5%) (seated group)) (All Ps<.001). Compared to baseline, lateral ventricular volume increased at HDT15 (Δ0.9 mL, 5.5%) and HDT29 (Δ1.8 mL, 10%)) for LBNP only (P=.001 for each). During HDT, white matter volume remained stable compared to baseline for both interventions. There were no significant intervention effects in the overall response to HDT (All Ps >.2). CONCLUSION LBNP had a similar response to the seated posture during 29 days of HDT. Although there was an increase in ICV and lateral ventricular volume with HDT there was no change in intracranial physiological parameters with LBNP suggesting an overall diminished response to the long-term effects of HDT. The lack of any significant increase in white matter volume during HDT with LBNP suggests maintenance of cerebral interstitial fluid transport. Final conclusions are pending the data collection for the control group (no intervention) which will be completed in 2023.

Larry A Kramer↗
NASA NTRSDate not supplied

Changes in Oculomotor Behavior and PVT Reaction Time During One Night of Sleep Deprivation

INTRODUCTION: The Psychomotor Vigilance Test (PVT) is a widely used objective measure of sustained attention, alertness, and fatigue. Previous studies consistently show that prolonged wakefulness and disrupted sleep patterns lead to increased lapses of attention and slower reaction times. These findings have critical implications for various professions, including healthcare, aviation, transportation safety, and spaceflight. In this study, we employed linear mixed models (LMM) to investigate hourly-measured 5-minute PVT reaction times during one night of total sleep deprivation. Our goal was to characterize the contribution of homeostatic sleep pressure (time awake) and circadian phase (salivary melatonin levels) on the dynamics of PVT reaction time. MATERIALS & METHODS: Data from twelve human participants were used in the analysis. Participants were healthy non-smokers, aged 18 and 40, with normal sleep habits defined as Pittsburg Sleep Quality Index scores < 5, and Morningness – Eveningness Questionnaire scores > 42 and < 58, respectively. Participants followed a constant-routine protocol and arrived at the NASA sleep laboratory approximately 1 to 2 hours after their habitual waking time. Tympanic temperature was measured every 30 min to provide a real-time estimate of circadian phase. Participants were required to stay awake throughout the laboratory experiment, which continued until their tympanic temperature had returned to baseline levels. This approach ensured that we could capture each participant's circadian trough and recovery, typically occurring between 24 and 26 hours after waking. The PVT and saliva melatonin were measured every hour, starting approximately from 3 hours after awakening. More information about the measurement protocol can be found in the publication by Stone et al. We used PVT reaction times between 100 and 10000 ms to calculate Reciprocal Reaction Times (RRTs). LMM models were employed to assess the contribution of time awake and saliva melatonin levels on changes in RRTs. Two models were created: the first model treated time awake as a fixed effect and the second model considered both the salivary melatonin level and time awake as fixed effects. Participants were included as a random effect in both models. We compared the models using an Analysis of Variance (ANOVA). The models were computed using the 'lmer' function from the 'lme4' package in R, and LMM p-values were determined using Satterthwaite's method. RESULTS: We found that time awake had a statistically significant effect on PVT RRTs during one night of sleep deprivation [χ2 = 2132.4, df = 1, p < 0.001]. In addition, the model including both saliva melatonin levels and time awake was statistically significantly better than one that uses just time awake [χ2 = 17.4, df = 1, p < 0.001]. DISCUSSION & CONCLUSION: As expected, these preliminary results suggest that the time awake and circadian phase each contribute to performance reductions as measured by the PVT. Future analyses will explore the contributions of other factors to the model.

sleep deprivation↗
NASA NTRS2010

Gender Differences in Isokinetic Strength after 60 and 90 d Bed Rest

Recent reports suggest that changes in muscle strength following disuse may differ between males and females. PURPOSE: To examine potential gender differences in strength changes following 60 and 90 d of experimental bed rest. METHODS: Isokinetic extensor and flexor strength of the knee (60deg and 180deg/s, concentric only), ankle (30deg/s, concentric and eccentric), and trunk (60deg/s, concentric only) were measured following 60 d (males: n=4, 34.5+/-9.6 y; females: n=4, 35.5+/-8.2 y) and 90 d (males: n=10, 31.4+/-4.8 y; females: n=5, 37.6+/-9.9 y) of 6-degree head-down-tilt bed rest (BR; N=23). Subjects were fed a controlled diet (55%/15%/ 30%, CHO/PRO/FAT) that maintained body weight within 3% of the weight recorded on Day 3 of bed rest. After a familiarization session, testing was conducted 6 d before BR and 2 d after BR completion. Peak torque and total work were calculated for the tests performed. To allow us to combine data from both 60- and 90-d subjects, we used a mixed-model statistical analysis in which time and gender were fixed effects and bed rest duration was a random effect. Log-transformations of strength measures were utilized when necessary in order to meet statistical assumptions. RESULTS: Main effects were seen for both time and gender (p<0.05), showing decreased strength in response to bed rest for both males and females, and males stronger than females for most strength measures. Only one interaction effect was observed: females exhibited a greater loss of trunk extensor peak torque at 60 d versus pre-BR, relative to males (p=0.004). CONCLUSION: Sixty and 90 d of BR induced significant losses in isokinetic muscle strength of the locomotor and postural muscles of the knee, ankle, and trunk. Although males were stronger than females for most of the strength measures that we examined, only changes in trunk extensor peak torque were greater for females than males at day 60 of bed rest

English, K. L.↗
NASA NTRSDate not supplied

Sleep, Sleepiness, and Performance Across Three In-Flight Bunk Rest Opportunities

Introduction: Airline pilots are required to take a rest break in a bunk during long-haul flights in an effort to reduce sleepiness during critical phases of flight. It is unclear, however, whether each rest break affords equal opportunity for sleep. We aimed to characterize sleep, sleepiness, and performance outcomes across three in-flight rest breaks during long-haul flights. Methods: Thirty-seven pilots wore actiwatches and completed sleep diaries for approximately two weeks while flying a variety of long-haul routes (n=126 flights). Self-reported in-flight bunk rest (BR) periods were used to set rest intervals and sleep was estimated within these intervals using actigraphy software (wake threshold set to medium). Pilots provided Karolinska Sleepiness Scale ratings (KSS) and performed a 5-minute psychomotor vigilance task (PVT) before landing. A linear mixed-effects model with participant included as a random effect and allowed to vary by intercept was used to assess differences between BR opportunities. Results : The majority (97%, n=122) of bunk rest periods contained sleep (as estimated by actigraphy). The mean (+/- standard deviation) sleep duration for the first, middle, and third BR opportunity was 152.8 (69.7), 149.2 (44.1), 125.2 (44.9) minutes, respectively. There was a significant effect of BR opportunity for sleep duration (F2,54 = 3.747, p=.03) and KSS (F2,44 = 7.869, p=.001). Bonferroni adjusted planned pairwise contrasts revealed that pilots using the third BR obtained significantly less sleep than in the first BR (p=.029). KSS ratings prior to landing were higher for the third BR compared to both the first (p=.001) and middle BR (p=.017). There were no significant differences for PVT speed or lapses (all p>05). Conclusion: These results suggest that the last rest break is associated with shorter sleep, lower alertness, and no differences in performance relative to the other rest breaks. Further analysis is required to determine whether the higher KSS ratings following the third rest break are associated with sleep inertia, or whether other factors may be involved.

sleepiness↗
NASA NTRS1974

Coherent potential theory of a random binary alloy Effects of scattering from two-sites clusters and off-diagonal randomness

Extension of the single-site coherent potential approximation for random binary alloys to include the effect of off-diagonal randomness and pair scattering. This extension is achieved by analyzing a one-band model of a random binary alloy in terms of a two-sites coherent potential approximation. Numerical results are presented for a number of different alloys. In the overlapping-band case, the presence of off-diagonal randomness is shown to modify the bandwidths to values larger than those obtained from the virtual-crystal approximation. A simple iterative procedure is described for overcoming the convergence difficulties in the split-band case. In this limit, the inclusion of pair scattering and off-diagonal randomness is found to lead to the appearance of structure in the density of states of the minority component band.

Moorjani, K.↗
NASA NTRSDate not supplied

Light Improves Alertness and Mood during the Sleep Inertial Period following Slow Wave Sleep

Introduction: Waking from sleep, especially slow wave sleep (SWS), is associated with reduced alertness known as sleep inertia. Light improves alertness during sleep deprivation and circadian misalignment. In this study, we assessed the efficacy of light to improve alertness and mood immediately after waking from SWS. Methods: Twelve participants kept a sleep schedule of 8.5 h for 5 nights and 5 h for one night prior to the overnight laboratory visit (confirmed by actigraphy). Participants went to bed at their scheduled habitual bedtime in the laboratory and were monitored by standard polysomnography. After at least 5 min of SWS, participants were awoken and exposed to either red ambient light (control) or blue-enriched bright light (light) for 1 h. During this time, participants completed a subjective scale of alertness (Karolinska Sleepiness Scale, KSS) and visual analogue scales (VAS) of mood at 2 min, 17 min, 32 min, and 47 min after waking. Following this sleep inertia measurement period, all lights were turned off and participants were allowed to return to sleep. They were then awoken again from their subsequent SWS period and exposed to the opposite condition (control or light). A linear mixed-effects model with fixed effects of condition, time, and condition*time and a random effect of participant was used to determine the impact of light across the testing period. An average of baseline responses (pre-sleep) was included as a covariate. Results: Compared to the control condition, participants exposed to bright blue-enriched light reported feeling more alert (KSS: F1,77=4.955, p=.029; VASalert: F1,77=8.226, p=.005), more cheerful (VAScheerful: F1,77=8.615, p=.004), less depressed (VASdepressed: F1,77=4.649, p=.034), and less lethargic (VASlethargic: F1,77=5.652, p=.020). Discussion: Exposure to blue-enriched bright light immediately after waking from SWS may help to improve subjective alertness and mood. Future analyses will explore whether these findings extend to effects on cognitive performance.

alertness↗
NASA NTRSDate not supplied

Blue-enriched Light Improves Alertness and Mood Following Abrupt Awakening from Slow Wave Sleep

INTRODUCTION: All crew on the International Space Station (ISS) have a sleep opportunity at the same time. Emergencies arising during this time require all crew members to be abruptly awoken from sleep and to be alert, ready to work as a team, and to perform safety-critical tasks soon after waking. However, crew may experience sleep inertia after waking, which is associated with reduced alertness, poor mood, and impaired performance, especially if woken from deep sleep (slow wave sleep, SWS). Light has been shown to improve alertness during sleep deprivation and circadian misalignment. In this study, we assessed the efficacy of blue-enriched light to improve alertness and mood immediately after waking from SWS, i.e., during the sleep inertia period. METHODS: Twelve participants kept a sleep schedule of 8.5 h for 5 nights and 5 h for one night prior to the overnight laboratory visit (confirmed by actigraphy). Participants went to bed at their scheduled habitual bedtime in the laboratory and were monitored by standard polysomnography. After at least 5 min of SWS, participants were awoken and exposed to either red ambient light (control) or blue-enriched light (light) for 1 h. During this time, participants completed a subjective scale of alertness (Karolinska Sleepiness Scale, KSS) and visual analogue scales (VAS) of mood at 2 min, 17 min, 32 min, and 47 min after waking. Following this sleep inertia measurement period, all lights were turned off and participants were allowed to return to sleep. They were then awoken again from their subsequent SWS period and exposed to the opposite condition (control or light). A linear mixed-effects model with fixed effects of condition, time, and condition*time and a random effect of participant was used to determine the impact of light across the testing period. An average of baseline responses (pre-sleep) was included as a covariate. RESULTS: Compared to the control condition, participants exposed to blue-enriched light reported feeling more alert (KSS: F1,77=4.955, p=.029; VASalert: F1,77=8.226, p=.005), more cheerful (VAScheerful: F1,77=8.615, p=.004), less depressed (VASdepressed: F1,77=4.649, p=.034), and less lethargic (VASlethargic: F1,77=5.652, p=.020). DISCUSSION: Exposure to blue-enriched light immediately after waking from SWS may help to improve subjective alertness and mood. Future analyses will explore whether these findings extend to effects on cognitive performance. This countermeasure to sleep inertia may be suitable for implementation to alert crew members during mid-sleep emergencies but requires further testing in field settings.

alertness↗
NASA NTRSDate not supplied

Rise and Shine: Using Light as a Countermeasure to Sleep Inertia

INTRODUCTION: Sleep inertia describes the phenomenon of sleepiness and poor performance experienced after waking from sleep. This period of impaired alertness and performance is of significant concern to workers who nap on shift, or work on-call and are required to perform safety-critical tasks soon after waking (e.g., emergency services, healthcare, military). Light has been shown to acutely improve alertness during sleep deprivation and circadian misalignment. In this study, we assessed the efficacy of blue-enriched light to improve alertness and mood immediately after waking from SWS, i.e., during the sleep inertia period. METHODS: Twelve participants kept a sleep schedule of 8.5 h for 5 nights and 5 h for one night prior to the overnight laboratory visit (confirmed by actigraphy). Participants went to bed at their scheduled habitual bedtime in the laboratory and were monitored by standard polysomnography. After at least 5 min of SWS, participants were awoken and exposed to either red ambient light (control) or blue-enriched light (light) for 1 h. During this time, participants completed a subjective scale of alertness (Karolinska Sleepiness Scale, KSS) and visual analogue scales (VAS) of mood at 2 min, 17 min, 32 min, and 47 min after waking. Following this sleep inertia measurement period, all lights were turned off and participants were allowed to return to sleep. They were then awoken again from their subsequent SWS period and exposed to the opposite condition (control or light). A linear mixed-effects model with fixed effects of condition, time, and condition*time and a random effect of participant was used to determine the impact of light across the testing period. An average of baseline responses (pre-sleep) was included as a covariate. RESULTS: Compared to the control condition, participants exposed to blue-enriched light reported feeling more alert (KSS: F1,77=4.955, p=.029; VASalert: F1,77=8.226, p=.005), more cheerful (VAScheerful: F1,77=8.615, p=.004), less depressed (VASdepressed: F1,77=4.649, p=.034), and less lethargic (VASlethargic: F1,77=5.652, p=.020). DISCUSSION: Exposure to blue-enriched light immediately after waking from SWS may help to improve subjective alertness and mood. Future analyses will explore whether these findings extend to effects on cognitive performance. This countermeasure to sleep inertia may be suitable for implementation to alert crew members during mid-sleep emergencies but requires further testing in field settings.

alertness↗
NASA NTRSDate not supplied

Teal Cycle Ergometer Vibration Isolation and Stabilization System Human-in-the-Loop Ground Evaluation for Long-Duration Spaceflight

Purpose: To counter the deleterious effects of weightlessness on the cardiopulmonary system, astronauts living on the International Space Station exercise on a variety of countermeasure equipment including the Cycle Ergometer Vibration Isolation and Stabilization System (CEVIS). Operational since 2001, the onboard CEVIS will be replaced by a new model, known as Teal CEVIS (TC). As a part of ground evaluation, TC hardware underwent human-in-the-loop (HITL) testing to verify the TC hardware produces workloads that elicit physiologic responses comparable to a laboratory cycle ergometer (LAB). Methods: Seven subjects (5 M/2 F) performed submaximal cycle ergometer testing with indirect calorimetry measures on TC and LAB on separate test days. Testing consisted of graded 30 watt increases in workload until subjects reached 85% of age-predicted max heart rate (HR). Exercise outcomes included rate of oxygen uptake (VO2; liters/min), rate of energy expenditure (REE; kcal/min), and HR (beats/min). Linear mixed models (LMM) were fitted to compare VO2, REE, and HR responses between devices across power outputs with fixed effects for power (P) and device (D) and with random effects for subject. LMM effect coefficients (β), std errors (SE), pseudo-partial R2 of effects (pR2), and model likelihood ratio statistics (χ2, Pr(> chisq); α<.05) are provided. Results: LMM main effects for P and D were observed for VO2 (βp=.0107, SE = .0002, pR2=0.97; βd = -0.075, SE = 0.019, pR2=0.14; χ2(1)= 13.57, p<.001), such that VO2 was higher across stages on TC. Main effects of P and D were observed for REE (βp= .0586, SE = 0.001, pR2= 0.97; βd = -0.33208, SE = 0.099, pR2= 0.056; χ2(1)=10.481, p < .01), such that REE was higher across power outputs on TC. A P x D interaction was observed for HR, along with main effects for P and D (βp x d =-0.048, SE = 0.02, pR2=0.048; βp= 0.42, SE = 0.016, pR2=0.87; χ2(1) = 5.398, p = 0.02), such that higher workloads elicited a greater difference in HR between devices. Conclusions: HITL results show, TC elicits greater physiologic responses across power outputs compared to LAB. However, pR2 for device effects show small differences between devices. Therefore, TC can be expected to provide appropriate physiological stimulus across workloads and be considered a reliable tool to mitigate the effects of weightlessness.

Cycle Ergometer Vibration and Isolation System↗
NASA NTRS2022

Sex Differences in Perceptions of Sleep Inertia Following Nighttime Awakenings

Study Objectives: The influence of biological sex on sleep inertia symptoms is currently unknown. We investigated the role of sex differences in the subjective experience and objective cognitive manifestation of sleep inertia following nighttime awakenings. Methods: Thirty-two healthy adults (16 female, 25.91 ± 5.63 years) completed a one-week at-home study with one experimental night during which sleep was measured by polysomnography and participants were awakened during their habitual sleep time. Participants completed a psychomotor vigilance task (PVT), Karolinska Sleepiness Scale (KSS), visual analog mood scales, and a descending subtraction task (DST) prior to sleep (baseline) and at 2, 12, 22, and 32 minutes after awakening. A series of mixed-effects models with Bonferroni-corrected post-hoc tests were used to examine the main effects of test bout and sex, and their interaction, with a random effect of participant, and order of wake-up and sleep history as covariates. Results: All outcomes except for percent correct on the DST showed a significant main effect of test bout, with worse performance after waking compared to baseline (all p s < .003). Significant effects of sex ( p = .002) and sex × test bout ( p = .01; R 2 M = .49, R 2 C = .69) were observed for KSS, with females reporting a greater increase in sleepiness from baseline to after waking compared to males. Conclusions : These results suggest that while females reported feeling sleepier than males following nighttime awakenings, their cognitive performance was comparable. Future research is needed to determine whether perceptions of sleepiness influence decision-making during the transition from sleep to wakefulness.

Sleep inertia↗
NASA NTRSDate not supplied

Sex Differences in Perceptions of Sleep Inertia Following Nighttime Awakenings

Study Objectives: The influence of biological sex on sleep inertia symptoms is currently unknown. We investigated the role of sex differences in the subjective experience and objective cognitive manifestation of sleep inertia following nighttime awakenings. Methods: Thirty-two healthy adults (16 female, 25.91 ± 5.63 years) completed a one-week at-home study with one experimental night during which sleep was measured by polysomnography and participants were awakened during their habitual sleep time. Participants completed a psychomotor vigilance task (PVT), Karolinska Sleepiness Scale (KSS), visual analog mood scales, and a descending subtraction task (DST) prior to sleep (baseline) and at 2, 12, 22, and 32 minutes after awakening. A series of mixed-effects models with Bonferroni-corrected post-hoc tests were used to examine the main effects of test bout and sex, and their interaction, with a random effect of participant, and order of wake-up and sleep history as covariates. Results: All outcomes except for percent correct on the DST showed a significant main effect of test bout, with worse performance after waking compared to baseline (all ps < .003). Significant effects of sex (p = .002) and sex × test bout (p = .01; R2M = .49, R2C = .69) were observed for KSS, with females reporting a greater increase in sleepiness from baseline to after waking compared to males. Conclusions: These results suggest that while females reported feeling sleepier than males following nighttime awakenings, their cognitive performance was comparable. Future research is needed to determine whether perceptions of sleepiness influence decision-making during the transition from sleep to wakefulness.

sleep inertia↗
NASA NTRS1995

Probabilistic Material Strength Degradation Model for Inconel 718 Components Subjected to High Temperature, High-Cycle and Low-Cycle Mechanical Fatigue, Creep and Thermal Fatigue Effects

The development of methodology for a probabilistic material strength degradation is described. The probabilistic model, in the form of a postulated randomized multifactor equation, provides for quantification of uncertainty in the lifetime material strength of aerospace propulsion system components subjected to a number of diverse random effects. This model is embodied in the computer program entitled PROMISS, which can include up to eighteen different effects. Presently, the model includes five effects that typically reduce lifetime strength: high temperature, high-cycle mechanical fatigue, low-cycle mechanical fatigue, creep and thermal fatigue. Results, in the form of cumulative distribution functions, illustrated the sensitivity of lifetime strength to any current value of an effect. In addition, verification studies comparing predictions of high-cycle mechanical fatigue and high temperature effects with experiments are presented. Results from this limited verification study strongly supported that material degradation can be represented by randomized multifactor interaction models.

Bast, Callie C.↗
NASA NTRS1996

Proportional and scale change models to project failures of mechanical components with applications to space station

In this paper we develop the mathematical theory of proportional and scale change models to perform reliability analysis. The results obtained will be applied for the Reaction Control System (RCS) thruster valves on an orbiter. With the advent of extended EVA's associated with PROX OPS (ISSA & MIR), and docking, the loss of a thruster valve now takes on an expanded safety significance. Previous studies assume a homogeneous population of components with each component having the same failure rate. However, as various components experience different stresses and are exposed to different environments, their failure rates change with time. In this paper we model the reliability of a thruster valves by treating these valves as a censored repairable system. The model for each valve will take the form of a nonhomogeneous process with the intensity function that is either treated as a proportional hazard model, or a scale change random effects hazard model. Each component has an associated z, an independent realization of the random variable Z from a distribution G(z). This unobserved quantity z can be used to describe heterogeneity systematically. For various models methods for estimating the model parameters using censored data will be developed. Available field data (from previously flown flights) is from non-renewable systems. The estimated failure rate using such data will need to be modified for renewable systems such as thruster valve.

Taneja, Vidya S.↗
DOE OSTI2026

Data driven investigation to understand the influence of total solids on biological biogas upgrading

In situ biogas upgrading achieves CO 2 conversion to CH 4 via hydrogenotrophic methanogenesis; however, gas-liquid mass transfer constraints limit the upgrading performance. Recognizing that optimization studies often underrepresent the effects of total solids (TS) and organic loading rate (OLR), this study undertook a holistic, statistics driven assessment of operating conditions for in situ H 2 assisted biogas upgrading, centering the analysis on TS and OLR. A dataset of 31 studies was compiled and comprised 99 observations. A rigorous analytical framework was employed, combining data standardization, fixed- and random-effects (REML) weighted regressions with cluster-robust errors, stratified analyses, and machine learning. Mixed-effects meta regression indicated that TS was the main factor explaining differences of methane fraction (CH 4 %) when considering the between studies heterogeneity. Focusing on a near-stoichiometric subset (H 2 /CO 2 ≈ 4:1), TS remained significant. Stratified results showed a stronger negative relationship between TS and CH 4 % in UASB reactors than in CSTRs, with a negative effect under mesophilic conditions and no significant effect under thermophilic conditions. A Random Forest model corroborated the statistical findings, consistently ranking H 2 /CO 2 ratio, OLR, TS, and hydrogen injection rate (HIR) as the most influential predictors. These findings delineate trends across increasing TS levels, particularly between 1% and 10%, and provide preliminary insights for TS above 15% in in situ biogas upgrading. They further provide insights for the influence of TS by reactor type and temperature, thereby advancing the evidence base for implementing biological CO 2 conversion to CH 4 in practice.

In situ biogas upgrading↗