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DOE OSTI2015

Progress for the Industry Application External Hazard Analyses Early Demonstration

This report describes the current progress and status related to the Industry Application #2 focusing on External Hazards. For this industry application within the Light Water Reactor Sustainability (LWRS) Program Risk-Informed Safety Margin Characterization (RISMC) R&D Pathway, we will create the Risk-Informed Margin Management (RIMM) approach to represent meaningful (i.e., realistic facility representation) event scenarios and consequences by using an advanced 3D facility representation that will evaluate external hazards such as flooding and earthquakes in order to identify, model and analyze the appropriate physics that needs to be included to determine plant vulnerabilities related to external events; manage the communication and interactions between different physics modeling and analysis technologies; and develop the computational infrastructure through tools related to plant representation, scenario depiction, and physics prediction. One of the unique aspects of the RISMC approach is how it couples probabilistic approaches (the scenario) with mechanistic phenomena representation (the physics) through simulation. This simulation-based modeling allows decision makers to focus on a variety of safety, performance, or economic metrics. In this report, we describe the evaluation of various physics toolkits related to flooding representation. Ultimately, we will be coupling the flooding representation with other events such as earthquakes in order to provide coupled physics analysis for scenarios where interactions exist.

21 SPECIFIC NUCLEAR REACTORS AND ASSOCIATED PLANTS↗

DOE OSTI2016

RELAP-7 Pressurizer Component Development Updates

RELAP-7 is a nuclear systems safety analysis code being developed at the Idaho National Laboratory (INL). RELAP-7 development began in 2011 to support the Risk Informed Safety Margins Characterization (RISMC) Pathway of the Light Water Reactor Sustainability (LWRS) program. The overall design goal of RELAP-7 is to take advantage of the previous thirty years of advancements in computer architecture, software design, numerical methods, and physical models in order to provide capabilities needed for the RISMC methodology and to support nuclear power safety analysis. The code is being developed based on Idaho National Laboratory’s modern scientific software development framework – MOOSE (the Multi-Physics Object-Oriented Simulation Environment). The initial development goal of the RELAP-7 approach focused primarily on the development of an implicit algorithm capable of strong (nonlinear) coupling of the dependent hydrodynamic variables contained in the 1-D/2-D flow models with the various 0-D system reactor components that compose various boiling water reactor (BWR) and pressurized water reactor nuclear power plants (NPPs). As part of the efforts to expand the capability for PWR simulation, an equilibrium single-region pressurizer model has been implemented in RELAP-7. The pressurizer component can simulate pressure and water level change through insurge, spray, and heating processes. Two simple tests – one for insurge process and another for outsurge process – have been reported to demonstrate and verify the functions of the pressurizer model. The typical single-phase PWR system model presented in the first RELAP-7 milestone report has been updated, as part of system level test for the new pressurizer model. The updated PWR system model with the pressurizer component can be used for more realistic transient simulations. The addition of the equilibrium single-region pressurizer model represents the first step of developing a suite of pressurizer models with different levels of fidelities. Non-equilibrium two-region two-zone model and non-equilibrium five-region three zone model will be implemented in the near future. Cross comparison and validation will be pursued when higher fidelity pressurizer models are completed.

21 SPECIFIC NUCLEAR REACTORS AND ASSOCIATED PLANTS↗

DOE OSTI2017

Industry Application ECCS / LOCA Integrated Cladding/Emergency Core Cooling System Performance: Demonstration of LOTUS-Baseline Coupled Analysis of the South Texas Plant Model

Under the auspices of the DOE LWRS Program RISMC Industry Application ECCS/LOCA, INL has engaged staff from both South Texas Project (STP) and the Texas A&M University (TAMU) to produce a generic pressurized water reactor (PWR) model including reactor core, clad/fuel design and systems thermal hydraulics based on the South Texas Project (STP) nuclear power plant, a 4-Loop Westinghouse PWR. A RISMC toolkit, named LOCA Toolkit for the U.S. (LOTUS), has been developed for use in this generic PWR plant model to assess safety margins for the proposed NRC 10 CFR 50.46c rule, Emergency Core Cooling System (ECCS) performance during LOCA. This demonstration includes coupled analysis of core design, fuel design, thermalhydraulics and systems analysis, using advanced risk analysis tools and methods to investigate a wide range of results. Within this context, a multi-physics best estimate plus uncertainty (MPBEPU) methodology framework is proposed.

22 GENERAL STUDIES OF NUCLEAR REACTORS↗

DOE OSTI2017

Advanced Seismic Probabilistic Risk Assessment Methodology: Development of Beta 1.0 MASTODON Toolset

Design of nuclear power plant (NPP) facilities to resist natural hazards has been a part of the regulatory process from the beginning of the NPP industry in the United States, but has evolved substantially over time. The original set of approaches and methods was entirely deterministic in nature and focused on a traditional engineering margins-based approach. However, over time probabilistic and risk-informed approaches were also developed and implemented in US Nuclear Regulatory Commission guidance and regulation. A defense-in-depth framework has also been incorporated into US regulatory guidance over time. As a result, today, the US regulatory framework incorporates deterministic and probabilistic approaches for a range of different applications and for a range of natural hazard considerations. Although the US regulatory framework has continued to evolve over time, the tools, methods and data available to the US nuclear industry to meet the changing requirements have not kept pace. Notably, there is room for improvement in the tools and methods available for external event probabilistic risk assessment (PRA), which is the principal assessment approach used in risk-informed regulations and risk-informed decision-making applied to natural hazard assessment and design. Development of a new set of tools and methods that incorporate current knowledge, modern best practice, and state-of-the-art computational resources would lead to more reliable assessment of facility risk and risk insights (e.g., the plant elements and accident sequences that are most risk-significant), with less uncertainty and reduced conservatisms. Development of the next generation tools and methods for external events PRA is ongoing under the Risk Informed Safety Margins Characterization (RISMC) technical pathway. The RISMC toolkit development centers on integration of the tools and methods under a common framework, MOOSE. These tools and methods make use of existing and newly developed tools and methods, coupled with the experience and data gained in the past decades, to define and analyze more realistic risk assessment models. Specific focus in this report is on the capability to model seismic risk using advanced SPRA methods. Over the last year, significant capability has been added to Mastodon to simulate 3-D wave passage effects through nonlinear soil. Verification has demonstrated the capability of Mastodon to model wave passage effects in 1-D, 2-D, and 3-D. Methods have been developed to incorporate probabilistic floor response capabilities. Additional capability will be added to Mastodon over the next year to implement a robust gapping and sliding element for cyclic shaking, web-based verification and user manuals, stochastic finite elements, and frequency independent damping. Verification of added capabilities has occured in parallel with code writing activities.

21 SPECIFIC NUCLEAR REACTORS AND ASSOCIATED PLANTS↗

DOE OSTI2021

Development and Application of a Data-Driven Methodology for Validation of Risk-Informed Safety Margin Characterization Models

The document is the Final Technical Progress Report for the Nuclear Energy University Program’s Integrated Research Project (IRP) on “Development and Application of a Data-Driven Methodology for Validation of Risk-Informed Safety Margin Characterization Models” that supports the LWR Sustainability Program’s RISMC R&D Pathway. The project goal is to develop and demonstrate a data-driven methodology for validation of advanced computer models used in nuclear power plant safety analysis. Specifically, the advanced computer models are those in the toolkit developed to support risk-informed safety margin characterization (RISMC), an integrated deterministic/probabilistic safety analysis methodology developed in the Department of Energy’s Light Water Reactor Sustainability (LWR-S) program. The report reflects the progress made towards the project’s stated goal by contributions by researchers and graduate students from universities, with support from researchers from national laboratories and industry companies. The project organization, effort coordination and technical implementation are summarized, followed by discussion of main findings, issues, and path forward. Selected chapters provide a more detailed description of tasks, approaches and respective findings and recommendations. Noteworthy are contributions that serve as guidelines for methodology development. It is also noted that this report is complemented by other milestone reports (as stand-alone deliverables) that provide detailed discussion of the technical developments. The project results have been documented in a number (12) dissertations and these, 50+ peer-reviewed publications in technical journals and conference proceedings.

42 ENGINEERING↗

DOE OSTI2014

Risk-Informed Safety Margin Characterization Case Study: Selection of Electrical Equipment to Be Subjected to Environmental Qualification

The Risk-Informed Safety Margin Characterization (RISMC) pathway of the DOE’s Light Water Reactor Sustainability (LWRS) program focuses on advancing the state of the art in safety analysis and risk assessment to support decision-making on nuclear power plant operation well beyond the originally designed lifetime of the plants (i.e., beyond 60 years). Among the issues being addressed in RISMC is the significance of SSC aging and how confident we are about our understanding of its impact on the margin between the loads SSCs are expected to see during normal operation and accident conditions, and the SSC capacities (their ability to resist those loads) as the SSCs age. In this paper, a summary is provided of a case study that examines SSC aging from an environmental qualification (EQ) perspective. The case study illustrates how the state of knowledge regarding SSC margin can be characterized given the overall integrated plant design, and was developed to demonstrate a method for deciding on which cables to focus, which cables are not so important from an environmental qualification margin standpoint, and what plant design features or operating characteristics determine the role that environmental qualification plays in establishing a safety case on which decisions regarding margin can be made. The selection of cables for which demonstration of margin with respect to aging and environmental challenges uses a technique known as Prevention Analysis. Prevention Analysis is a Boolean method for optimal selection of SSCs (that is, those combinations of SSCs both necessary and sufficient to meet a predetermined selection criterion) in a manner that allows demonstration that plant-level safety can be demonstrated by the collection of selected SSCs alone. Choosing the set of SSCs that is necessary and sufficient to satisfy the safety objectives, and demonstrating that the safety objectives can be met effectively, determines where resources are best allocated to assure SSC performance margin. The paper describes the resulting component types that were selected by Prevention Analysis and identifies the accident sequence characteristics that cause these component types to be important from an EQ and aging perspective (and, hence, worthwhile evaluating the extent of safety margin). In addition, component types not selected as needing significant margin from an EQ and aging perspective are discussed and an engineering rationale is developed justifying the lack of need to apply resources to demonstrating margin for these component types. This rationale is in terms of design features of the plant and operating characteristics that make these component types less important from an EQ and aging perspective. While the case study focuses on EQ and aging of equipment and cables located inside the containment of this PWR, the prevention analysis method is demonstrated to be an effective technique for identification of minimal collections of components that would be effective in managing safety for a variety of issues associated with aging and long-term operation of the fleet of plants.

22 GENERAL STUDIES OF NUCLEAR REACTORS↗

DOE OSTI2016

Performance-based ECCS cladding acceptance criteria: A new simulation approach

The U. S. Nuclear Regulatory Commission is currently proposing rulemaking to revise the Loss Of Coolant Accident (LOCA) and therefore the Emergency Core Cooling System (ECCS) acceptance criteria, to include the effects of higher burnup on cladding performance as well as to address other technical issues. As motivated by the new rule, the need to use advanced cladding designs may be a result. A loss of operational margin may result due to the more restrictive cladding embrittlement criteria. Initial and future compliance with the rule may significantly increase vendor workload and licensee cost, as a spectrum of fuel rod initial burnup states may need to be analyzed to demonstrate compliance. Consequently, there will be an increased focus on licensee decision making related to LOCA analysis to minimize cost and impact, and to manage margin. The study here presented has been part of a big project used to investigate technical issues and approaches for future industrial applications within the Risk-Informed Safety Margin Characterization (RISMC) Pathway. Specifically, the primary aim of this study is to lay out a roadmap to demonstrate the application of the new methodology. Furthermore, the present analysis shows a simplified version of the methodology of an industrial application on the Core Design and the Multi-Cycle Analysis.

11 NUCLEAR FUEL CYCLE AND FUEL MATERIALS↗

DOE OSTI2013

Light Water Reactor Sustainability Program: Technical Basis Guide Describing How to Perform Safety Margin Configuration Risk Management

The INL has carried out a demonstration of the RISMC approach for the purpose of configuration risk management. We have shown how improved accuracy and realism can be achieved by simulating changes in risk – as a function of different configurations – in order to determine safety margins as the plant is modified. We described the various technical issues that play a role in these configuration-based calculations with the intent that future applications can take advantage of the analysis benefits while avoiding some of the technical pitfalls that are found for these types of calculations. Specific recommendations have been provided on a variety of topics aimed at improving the safety margin analysis and strengthening the technical basis behind the analysis process.

97 MATHEMATICS AND COMPUTING↗

DOE OSTI2013

Light Water Reactor Sustainability Program Support and Modeling for the Boiling Water Reactor Station Black Out Case Study Using RELAP and RAVEN

The existing fleet of nuclear power plants is in the process of extending its lifetime and increasing the power generated. In order to evaluate the impact of these two factors on the safety of the plant, the Risk Informed Safety Margin Characterization (RISMC) project aims to provide insight to decision makers through a series of simulations of the plant dynamics for different initial conditions (e.g., probabilistic analysis and uncertainty quantification). This report focuses, in particular, on the impact of power uprate on the safety of a boiled water reactor system. The case study considered is a loss of off-site power followed by the loss of diesel generators, i.e., a station black out (SBO) event. Analysis is performed by using a thermo-hydraulic code, i.e. RELAP-5, and a stochastic analysis tool currently under development at INL, i.e. RAVEN. Starting from the event tree models contained in SAPHIRE, we built the input file for RELAP-5 that models in great detail system dynamics under SBO conditions. We also interfaced RAVEN with RELAP-5 so that it would be possible to run multiple RELAP-5 simulation runs by changing specific keywords of the input file. We both employed classical statistical tools, i.e. Monte-Carlo, and more advanced machine learning based algorithms to perform uncertainty quantification in order to quantify changes in system performance and limitations as a consequence of power uprate. We also employed advanced data analysis and visualization tools that helped us to correlate simulation outcome such as maximum core temperature with a set of input uncertain parameters. Results obtained gave a detailed overview of the issues associated to power uprate for a SBO accident scenario. We were able to quantify how timing of safety related events were impacted by a higher reactor core power. Such insights can provide useful material to the decision makers to perform risk-infomed safety margins management.

21 SPECIFIC NUCLEAR REACTORS AND ASSOCIATED PLANTS↗

DOE OSTI2014

Case Study for Enhanced Accident Tolerance Design Changes

The ability to better characterize and quantify safety margin is important to improved decision making about Light Water Reactor (LWR) design, operation, and plant life extension. A systematic approach to characterization of safety margins and the subsequent margin management options represents a vital input to the licensee and regulatory analysis and decision making that will be involved. In addition, as research and development in the LWR Sustainability (LWRS) Program and other collaborative efforts yield new data, sensors, and improved scientific understanding of physical processes that govern the aging and degradation of plant systems, structures, and components (SSCs) needs and opportunities to better optimize plant safety and performance will become known. To support decision making related to economics, reliability, and safety, the Risk Informed Safety Margin Characterization (RISMC) Pathway provides methods and tools that enable mitigation options known as risk informed margins management (RIMM) strategies.

97 MATHEMATICS AND COMPUTING↗

DOE OSTI2014

Case Study for Enhanced Accident Tolerance Design Changes

97 MATHEMATICS AND COMPUTING↗

DOE OSTI2016

Demonstration of External Hazards Analysis

This initial demonstration shows the capabilities of the baseline RISMC toolkit and better quantification of the safety margins of the analyzed nuclear power plant model.

31274↗

DOE OSTI2016

Loss of Coolant Accident (LOCA) / Emergency Core Coolant System (ECCS Evaluation of Risk-Informed Margins Management Strategies for a Representative Pressurized Water Reactor (PWR)

A Risk Informed Safety Margin Characterization (RISMC) toolkit and methodology are proposed for investigating nuclear power plant core, fuels design and safety analysis, including postulated Loss-of-Coolant Accident (LOCA) analysis. This toolkit, under an integrated evaluation model framework, is name LOCA toolkit for the US (LOTUS). This demonstration includes coupled analysis of core design, fuel design, thermal hydraulics and systems analysis, using advanced risk analysis tools and methods to investigate a wide range of results.

22 GENERAL STUDIES OF NUCLEAR REACTORS↗

DOE OSTI2015

Analyzing simulation-based PRA data through traditional and topological clustering: A BWR station blackout case study

Here, dynamic probabilistic risk assessment (DPRA) methodologies couple system simulator codes (e.g., RELAP and MELCOR) with simulation controller codes (e.g., RAVEN and ADAPT). Whereas system simulator codes model system dynamics deterministically, simulation controller codes introduce both deterministic (e.g., system control logic and operating procedures) and stochastic (e.g., component failures and parameter uncertainties) elements into the simulation. Typically, a DPRA is performed by sampling values of a set of parameters and simulating the system behavior for that specific set of parameter values. For complex systems, a major challenge in using DPRA methodologies is to analyze the large number of scenarios generated, where clustering techniques are typically employed to better organize and interpret the data. In this paper, we focus on the analysis of two nuclear simulation datasets that are part of the risk-informed safety margin characterization (RISMC) boiling water reactor (BWR) station blackout (SBO) case study. We provide the domain experts a software tool that encodes traditional and topological clustering techniques within an interactive analysis and visualization environment, for understanding the structures of such high-dimensional nuclear simulation datasets. We demonstrate through our case study that both types of clustering techniques complement each other for enhanced structural understanding of the data.

97 MATHEMATICS AND COMPUTING↗

DOE OSTI2014

Advanced probabilistic risk analysis using RAVEN and RELAP-7

RAVEN, under the support of the Nuclear Energy Advanced Modeling and Simulation (NEAMS) program [1], is advancing its capability to perform statistical analyses of stochastic dynamic systems. This is aligned with its mission to provide the tools needed by the Risk Informed Safety Margin Characterization (RISMC) path-lead [2] under the Department Of Energy (DOE) Light Water Reactor Sustainability program [3]. In particular this task is focused on the synergetic development with the RELAP-7 [4] code to advance the state of the art on the safety analysis of nuclear power plants (NPP). The investigation of the probabilistic evolution of accident scenarios for a complex system such as a nuclear power plant is not a trivial challenge. The complexity of the system to be modeled leads to demanding computational requirements even to simulate one of the many possible evolutions of an accident scenario (tens of CPU/hour). At the same time, the probabilistic analysis requires thousands of runs to investigate outcomes characterized by low probability and severe consequence (tail problem). The milestone reported in June of 2013 [5] described the capability of RAVEN to implement complex control logic and provide an adequate support for the exploration of the probabilistic space using a Monte Carlo sampling strategy. Unfortunately the Monte Carlo approach is ineffective with a problem of this complexity. In the following year of development, the RAVEN code has been extended with more sophisticated sampling strategies (grids, Latin Hypercube, and adaptive sampling). This milestone report illustrates the effectiveness of those methodologies in performing the assessment of the probability of core damage following the onset of a Station Black Out (SBO) situation in a boiling water reactor (BWR). The first part of the report provides an overview of the available probabilistic analysis capabilities, ranging from the different types of distributions available, possible sampling strategies, and post processing analysis capabilities. The first part of the report provides an extensive description of two major developments introduced this year: adaptive sampling for limit surface sampling and multi variate distributions. The document concludes with a description of the demo case (BWR-SBO) and a discussion of the results obtained.

97 MATHEMATICS AND COMPUTING↗

DOE OSTI2014

RELAP-7 User's Guide

The document contains a user's guide on how to run the RELAP-7 code. The RELAP-7 code is the next generation nuclear reactor system safety analysis code being developed at the Idaho National Laboratory. RELAP-7 will become the main reactor systems simulation toolkit for the LWRS (Light Water Reactor Sustainability) program’s RISMC (Risk Informed Safety Margin Characterization) effort and the next generation tool in the RELAP reactor safety/systems analysis application series. RELAP-7 is written with object oriented programming language C++. A number of example problems and their associated input files are presented in this document to guide users to run the RELAP-7 code starting with simple pipe problems to problems with increasing complexity.

21 SPECIFIC NUCLEAR REACTORS AND ASSOCIATED PLANTS↗

DOE OSTI2015

Flooding Capability for River-based Scenarios

This report describes the initial investigation into modeling and simulation tools for application of riverine flooding representation as part of the Risk-Informed Safety Margin Characterization (RISMC) Pathway external hazards evaluations. The report provides examples of different flooding conditions and scenarios that could impact river and watershed systems. Both 2D and 3D modeling approaches are described.

97 MATHEMATICS AND COMPUTING↗

DOE OSTI2016

Flooding Fragility Experiments and Prediction

This report describes the work that has been performed on flooding fragility, both the experimental tests being carried out and the probabilistic fragility predictive models being produced in order to use the text results. Flooding experiments involving full-scale doors have commenced in the Portal Evaluation Tank. The goal of these experiments is to develop a full-scale component flooding experiment protocol and to acquire data that can be used to create Bayesian regression models representing the fragility of these components. This work is in support of the Risk-Informed Safety Margin Characterization (RISMC) Pathway external hazards evaluation research and development.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗