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NASA NTRS1988

Ground-based column abundance measurements of atmospheric hydroxyl

The preliminary results of ground-based OH column abundance measurements from Truk, Federated States of Micronesia, are contained. These are the first OH column measurements from the tropics, and constitute a signficcant contribution to the OH data base. Comparisons of tropical OH behavior with the extensive mid-latitude observations serve as a critical test of the current understanding of the HO (sub x) photochemistry and its relationship to the other major chemical families. The quasi-biennial oscillation (QBO) in tropical stratospheric winds exerts a major influence on the Hadley cell vertical transport. Related QBOs in total O3 and in stratospheric H2O were identified, but QBO effects on other stratospheric species are still unknown. The solar tide in the tropics produces a diurnal surface pressure variation of 2 to 3 mb; its effect on OH photochemistry in the stratosphere may be significant.

Burnett, Clyde R.↗
NASA NTRS1988

Correlation of interannual length-of-day variation with El Nino/Southern Oscillation, 1972-1986

Correlation between interannual length-of-day (LOD) changes and an index representation of El Nino/Southern Oscillation (ENSO) for the period of 1972-1986 was examined in two ways: as the cross-correlation function in the time domain and as the complex coherence spectrum in the frequency domain. The ENSO representation was derived from barometric measurements from the Tahiti and Darwin, Australia, meteorological stations, as the difference of the sea-level pressure between the two locations. The cross correlation between this ENSO representation and LOD variation on the interannual time scale was found to have a maximum value of 0.68 and the LOD phase lag of 2 months, indicating that most of the interannual LOD variation is caused by ENSO, and that the transfer of ENSO's axial angular momentum to the solid earth lags behind the Tahiti-Darwin pressure variation by about 2 months. The corresponding coherence spectrum showed minimum correlation around biennial periods, indicating an influence of the stratospheric quasi-biennial oscillation on LOD variations.

Chao, B. Fong↗
NASA NTRS1988

Antarctic measurements of ozone by SAGE II in the spring of 1985, 1986, and 1987

This paper presents a three-year (1985, 1986, and 1987) comparison of ozone profiles within the southern polar vortex for September and October, using data obtained by the Stratospheric Aerosol and Gas Experiment II. It was found that, by the first half of October 1986, daily minima in total ozone showed a moderate recovery of 5-7 percent relative to 1985, whereas in 1987, a significant drop of 15 percent from the 1985 minima was observed. The interannual variability of total ozone, temperature, and temperature area or vortex size were found to display a quasi-biennial oscillation (QBO) signal similar to that established by Garcia and Solomon (1987) for Antarctica. Since the 1985 and 1987 years displayed the same QBO phase (westerly) and the 1987 depletion was greater than that of 1985, it is concluded that the long-term secular ozone trend continues to be downward.

Mccormick, M. P.↗
NASA NTRS1988

Wintertime losses of ozone in high northern latitudes

Total column ozone data over the past 22 to 30 years from ground-based Dobson and filter ozonometer stations between 30 N and 80 N are analyzed for residual trends remaining after allowance for the known geophysical variations corresponding to: (1) the change of seasons; (2) the quasi-biennial oscillation; and (3) the 11-year solar sunspot cycle. Examination of the data from several ground stations between 45 and 55 N indicated a seasonal difference in the long-term ozone series, with statistically significant losses in several winter months. Accordingly, the data from individual stations were analyzed with multiple regression analysis, seeking trends on a monthly basis after allowance for the known geophysical cycles. Previous statistical analyses were conducted as tests of 1-D model calculations which do not show any differences with the seasons, and any trend toward change in ozone concentrations is expressed in a yearly trend without seasonal variation. Such a model is inappropriate for calculations with a data set which exhibits a pronounced tendency toward seasonal differences in the trends. Comparisons with model calculations then require 2-D models into which seasonal and latitudinal differences can easily be programmed.

Harris, Neil↗
NASA NTRS1989

Observations and statistical simulations of a proposed solar cycle/QBO/weather relationship

The 10.7-cm solar flux is observed to be highly correlated with North Pole stratospheric temperatures when partitioned according to the phase of the equatorial stratospheric winds (the quasi-biennial oscillation, or QBO). Calculations show that temperatures over most of the Northern Hemisphere are highly correlated or anticorrelated with North Pole temperatures. The observed spatial pattern of solar-cycle correlations at high latitudes is shown to be not unique to the solar cycle.

Baldwin, Mark P.↗
NASA NTRS1989

Quasi-biennial modulation of the Antarctic ozone depletion

The quasi-biennial oscillation (QBO) in total ozone and temperature has been extracted from 9 years of Total Ozone Mapping Spectrometer (TOMS) observations and National Meteorological Center (NMC) analyses. Years in which QBO-related variations in the total ozone and temperature are positive are found to correspond to years with smaller September Antarctic total ozone hole decline rates and vice versa. The QBO appears to be responsible for September decline rate deviations up to 0.4 Dobson units (DU) per day. Also, the QBO at mid-latitudes appears to be better correlated with the 30-mbar tropical QBO winds than with those at 50 mbar. Possible mechanisms that would explain these phenomena are discussed.

Lait, Leslie R.↗
NASA NTRS1989

The stratospheric major warming of early December 1987

The NMC observations of temperature and geopotential carried out during the stratospheric major warming event of early December 1987 are analyzed. The December 1987 warming event displayed features typical of other major warmings, including vortex displacement, erosion, and splitting and, as such, was the earliest major warming yet observed in the Northern Hemisphere winter. The December 1987 major warming was unusual in that it took place during the (deep) westerly phase of the equatorial quasi-biennial oscillation and was not preceded by any significant preconditioning of the extratropical vortex. It is suggested that this unusually early major warming was mainly attributable to an anomalously large tropospheric forcing.

Baldwin, Mark P.↗
NASA NTRS1989

The tropospheric response pattern to solar activity forcing

It is tempting to speculate on the possibility that solar flares sometimes are the initial cause of and atmospheric disturbance, which cumulative effect may give rise to a correlation at the 11 year timescale. Reasons to reconsider the possible relevance of solar flare response studies are stated. The discovery of the apparently decisive role of the Quasi-Biennial Oscillations (QBO) in establishing the atmospheric response pattern to solar forcing may throw new light on some of the earlier published relations. Reanalysis of old data in some cases may be advisable. Data on solar flares and their effects on the earth's atmosphere might be a promising candidate for reexamination.

Schuurmans, C. J. E.↗
NASA NTRS1989

A review of the 11-year solar cycle, the QBO, and the atmosphere relationship

The papers published by Labitzke (1987) and by Labitzke and Van Loon (1988) indicated that the separation of Winter stratospheric data according to the phase of the Quasi-Biennial Oscillation (Q.B.O.) led to a largely improved relationship with the 11 year solar cycle. Since then, this possible relationship has been studied and extended from the surface to the lower thermosphere and its extension to other seasons is in progress. An opportunity is provided to review the state of the problem and to attempt to give a general view of the experimentally observed responses of the atmosphere to solar activity, when considering the phases of the Q.B.O. After a brief recall of the relationship discovered in the winter stratosphere, its extension downwards, upwards and to the other seasons are successively reviewed. The existing models are not adequate right now to represent the solar influence as they only take into account the change in UV flux, but before being able to use the large scale dynamics in a coupled radiative photochemical model, one needs to understand the mechanism able to explain the forcing from the lower atmosphere or the surface which could be induced by a change in solar activity.

Chanin, M. L.↗
NASA NTRS1989

A search for solar related changes in tropospheric weather

The possibility that solar variations associated with the 11-year solar cycle may be the cause of the changes in tropospheric weather and climate has been the subject to scientific investigation for several decades. Meteorologists are greatly concerned with the changes in tropospheric phenomena. An attempt was made to find solar activity related changes in tropospheric weather, by the modulation of the quasi-biennial oscillation (QBO) of zonal wind at 50 mb. Rainfall and surface temperature data for a period of about three solar cycles, 1953 to 1988, from various stations in the Indian subcontinent were utilized. By extension, a possible teleconnection was looked for between the temperature changes in middle atmospheric levels and surface temperature when the data are stratified according to east or west phase of the QBO. The temperature data were averaged for January and February to represent the winter temperature and for July and August to represent the summer temperature.

Mohanakumar, K.↗
NASA NTRS1989

An overview af SAGE I and II ozone measurements

The stratospheric Aerosol and Gas Experiments (SAGE) I and II measure Mie, Rayleigh, and gaseous extinction profiles using the solar occultation technique. These global measurements yield ozone profiles with a vertical resolution of 1 km which have been routinely obtained for the periods from February 1979 to November 1981 (SAGE I) and October 1984 to the present (SAGE II). The long-term periodic behavior of the measured ozone is presented as well as case studies of the observed short-term spatial and temporal variability. A linear regression shows annual, semiannual, and quasi-biennial oscillation features at various altitudes and latitudes which, in general, agree with past work. Also, ozone, aerosol, and water vapor data are described for the Antarctic springtime, showing large variation relative to the vortex. Cross-sections in latitude and altitude and polar plots at various altitudes clearly delineate the ozone hole vertically and areally.

Mccormick, M. P.↗
NASA NTRS1989

The interannual variability of polar stratospheric clouds and related parameters in Antarctica during September and October

Antarctic polar stratospheric cloud (PSC) sightings by the orbiting SAM II sensor during September and October show a pronounced quasi-biennial oscillation (QBO) signal, and October sightings have increased markedly over the past 10 years in years of westerly QBO phase. The QBO in PSC frequency is likely to affect the rate of Antarctic heterogeneous chemical processes and, hence, ozone depletion. Studies of the observed long-term temperature trend suggest that the decadal PSC trend probably results from the ozone decline, through its effect on stratospheric heating rates. A more detailed analysis of data from 1986 to 1987 shows that there were more PSCs in 1987, and that they persisted much later into the spring season as compared to 1986. Qualitatively similar behavior was found for the OClO column abundances and 18-km ozone depletion observed at McMurdo Station during these 2 years. These observations suggest that both the intensity and duration of heterogeneous chemical processes are likely greater during colder OBQ-westerly phase years.

Poole, Lamont R.↗
NASA NTRS1990

Studies of the observed and theoretical variations of atmospheric ozone

The four related topics covered include: (1) distributions of total and upper atmospheric ozone and their time and space variations; (2) observed and theoretical models of the quasi-biennial oscillation (QBO) ozone variation; (3) radiative processes in the upper atmosphere; and (4) relations between ozone and solar variations. The results of these studies are presented. They come from twenty-three published papers.

London, Julius↗
NASA NTRS1991

Total ozone trends deduced from Nimbus 7 TOMS data

The Total Ozone Mapping Spectrometer (TOMS) on the Nimbus 7 satellite has been measuring the total column amount of ozone over the globe for more than 11 years. Recent improvements in the data analysis have led to a technique for determining and removing drift in the calibration such that the data at the end of the record are precise to + or - 1.3 percent (2-sigma) relative to the data at the beginning of the record. A statistical model, including terms for seasonal variation, linear trend, quasi-biennial oscillation, solar cycle and second-order autoregressive noise has been fit to the TOMS time series of total ozone data. The linear trend obtained when this statistical model is fit to the TOMS data averaged between 65 N and 65 S latitudes is -0.26 + or - 0.14 percent/year or -3 percent over the 11.6 year time period from November 1978 to May 1990. The trend is near zero (0.0002 + or - 0.2 percent/year) at the equator and increases toward both poles.

Stolarski, Richard S.↗
NASA NTRS1991

The mean zonal flow response to Rossby wave and gravity wave forcing in the equatorial lower stratosphere - Relationship to the QBO

Observations show that the westerly acceleration of the equatorial quasi-biennial oscillation (QBO) can be accounted for by Kelvin waves, but that there is a deficiency in the easterly acceleration due to Rossby-gravity waves. Rossby waves and westward propagating gravity waves have been suggested as alternative sources for the easterly acceleration. The possible role of these two wave modes has been tested in a two-dimensional model of the QBO. When the easterly acceleration is due to Rossby waves, the zonal-mean response is steady; when it is due to gravity waves, an oscillation with some features similar to the QBO occurs, but it is of short period and weak amplitude. A similar result occurs when a standing-wave forcing pattern is imposed. These results suggest that Rossby waves play only a minor role in the QBO, and that while the Rossby-gravity mode is essential, other gravity modes may also be important for the easterly phase.

Takahashi, Masaaki↗
NASA NTRS1991

Anomalous temperature and zonal wind in the tropical upper stratosphere, 1982/1983

Observed temperature and zonal wind anomalies during 1982-1983 are described in relation to the 20-yr rocketsonde data record. Temperature data from the Nimbus 7 SAMS indicate that in mid-1982, cooling occurred in the upper and middle tropical stratosphere, starting shortly after the eruption of El Chichon (April 1982). Rocketsonde data from Kwajalein gave additional evidence of cooling and revealed that zonal winds in the upper and middle stratosphere were anomalous in 1982 and also in 1983. Rocketsonde observations were consistent with balance winds derived from SAMS. Upper-level cooling was linked to anomalous easterlies near the equator and therefore could not be interpreted as a radiative (nondynamical) response to El Chichon. The structure of an expected 2D dynamical response to aerosol heating is examined with a numerical model and compared to the data. It is suggested that internal sources of atmospheric variability (eg., extratropical forcing and quasi-biennial oscillation) contributed to the equatorial cooling observed in 1982.

Dunkerton, Timothy J.↗
NASA NTRS1989

Equatorial zonal wind in the middle atmosphere derived from geopotential height and temperature data

This paper examines the feasibility of deriving the zonal wind at the equator using mean temperature and geopotential height data from satellite and radiosonde/rocketsonde measurements. Using climatological data of the stratosphere and mesosphere based on monthly mean Nimbus 5 Selective Chopper Radiometer and Nimbus 6 Pressure Modulator Radiometer measurements, and stratospheric monthly mean data from the National Meteorological Center for 1979-1986, meridional cross sections and time profiles of the zonal wind in the tropical middle atmosphere are presented. The derived zonal wind at the equator reproduces the mean climatology of the tropical middle atmosphere as well as the general characteristics of the equatorial quasi-biennial (QBO) and semiannual oscillations (SAO) observed in monthly mean radiosonde and rocketsonde data. Although the amplitude of the derived wind QBO is for the most part underestimated relative to direct-wind measurements, the amplitude of the derived wind SAO compares fairly well with rocketsonde observations.

Fleming, Eric L.↗
NASA NTRS1987

Gravity waves

Gravity waves contributed to the establishment of the thermal structure, small scale (80 to 100 km) fluctuations in velocity (50 to 80 m/sec) and density (20 to 30%, 0 to peak). Dominant gravity wave spectrum in the middle atmosphere: x-scale, less than 100 km; z-scale, greater than 10 km; t-scale, less than 2 hr. Theorists are beginning to understand middle atmosphere motions. There are two classes: Planetary waves and equatorial motions, gravity waves and tidal motions. The former give rise to variability at large scales, which may alter apparent mean structure. Effects include density and velocity fluctuations, induced mean motions, and stratospheric warmings which lead to the breakup of the polar vortex and cooling of the mesosphere. On this scale are also equatorial quasi-biennial and semi-annual oscillations. Gravity wave and tidal motions produce large rms fluctuations in density and velocity. The magnitude of the density fluctuations compared to the mean density is of the order of the vertical wavelength, which grows with height. Relative density fluctuations are less than, or of the order of 30% below the mesopause. Such motions may cause significant and variable convection, and wind shear. There is a strong seasonal variation in gravity wave amplitude. Additional observations are needed to address and quantify mean and fluctuation statistics of both density and mean velocity, variability of the mean and fluctuations, and to identify dominant gravity wave scales and sources as well as causes of variability, both temporal and geographic.

Fritts, David↗