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Search indexed NASA NTRS and DOE OSTI research on propulsion, heat transfer, battery materials and energy systems. Follow report and document links to the original sources.

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At least 73 records · Page 4
All sourcesNASA NTRSDOE OSTI
DOE OSTI2022

Rewiring yeast metabolism for producing 2,3-butanediol and two downstream applications: Techno-economic analysis and life cycle assessment of methyl ethyl ketone (MEK) and agricultural biostimulant production

Rising concerns for sustainability and global climate change have driven the development of sustainable pro- duction pathways for biofuels and chemicals from lignocellulosic biomass via integrated biological and chemical processes. We constructed an engineered Saccharomyces cerevisiae capable of producing 2,3-butanediol (2,3-BDO) from glucose without accumulating ethanol and glycerol, which hinder downstream processing of 2,3-BDO, through extensive metabolic reprogramming. Specifically, we introduced heterologous 2,3-BDO biosynthetic enzymes and deleted the major isozymes of ethanol and glycerol biosynthetic enzymes. In addition, we introduced an NAD + regenerating Pyruvate-Malate (PM) cycle and enhanced the NAD + regenerating capability of the PM cycle to resolve the redox imbalance from the deletion of ethanol and glycerol production pathways. The resulting engineered yeast produced 109.9 g/L of 2,3-BDO with a productivity of 1.0 g/L/h and a yield of 0.36 g/ g glucose in a fed-batch fermentation. We also conducted techno-economic analysis (TEA) and life cycle assessment (LCA) of the production of methyl ethyl ketone (MEK) through catalytic dehydration of 2,3-BDO. A TEA based on the experimental results indicated that the minimum product selling price (MPSP) was estimated to be $1.90/kg. Regarding cradle-to-grave LCA, 100-year global warming potential (GWP100) and fossil energy consumption (FEC) were found to be 0.37 kg CO 2 eq/kg and 3.1 MJ/kg, respectively. These results demonstrated the feasibility of cost-competitive and sustainable bio-based MEK production via yeast fermentation. In addition, we explored the possibility of using the fermentation broth containing 2,3-BDO as a biostimulant inducing drought tolerance in plants. As a result, the yeast 2,3-BDO fermentation broth can induce drought tolerance in Arabidopsis thaliana without a complicated purification process.

2,3-butanediol (2,3-BDO)↗
DOE OSTI2024

Technoeconomic and Emissions Analysis of the Hybrid Redox Process for the Production of Acetic Acid with CO 2 Utilization

The production of oxygenated hydrocarbons, such as acetic acid, using captured CO 2 is a promising pathway to reduce greenhouse gas emissions in the chemical industry. The use of a chemical looping‐based hybrid redox process (HRP) is proposed to convert CO 2 and natural gas into separate CO and syngas streams that can be used to produce various commodity oxygenates, while allowing the beneficial utilization of captured CO 2 . Here, a detailed technoeconomic analysis of HRP applied to the production of acetic acid is presented. Emissions and energy analyses show the ability of HRP to lower the CO 2 emissions for acetic acid synthesis by 74% compared to a conventional steam and autothermal reforming route. HRP also offers a potential 34% reduction in capital costs. Compared to a dry reforming based acetic acid production route, HRP has the potential for significantly lower costs. If integrated with a low carbon energy source, HRP has the potential to achieve a negative emission of greenhouse gas (‐0.50 kg CO 2 per kg acetic acid).

37 INORGANIC, ORGANIC, PHYSICAL, AND ANALYTICAL CH↗
DOE OSTI2024

Durable and High-Performance SOECs Based on Proton Conductors for Hydrogen Production

Proton-conducting solid oxide electrolysis cells (P-SOECs) are a promising technology for cost-effective and efficient production of green hydrogen. Breakthroughs in materials development, optimization of cell structure, and achievement of high performance and durability are essential to significantly increase the commercial competitiveness of these technologies. The main objective of this project is to gain scientific knowledge for the rational design, fabrication, and demonstration of a robust, highly efficient, and low-cost SOEC technology based on a proton-conducting electrolyte membrane for hydrogen production. We focused on better understanding the degradation mechanisms of proton-conducting electrolytes, air electrodes, and catalyst materials under electrolysis mode to develop an effective strategy for rationalizing new materials that are vital for enhancing cell performance and durability. The scope includes enhancing the performance and durability of the electrolyte and electrode materials under realistic operating conditions, developing highly active and robust catalysts to minimize electrode losses while improving tolerance to contaminant poisoning, revealing the mechanism of enhanced activity and stability of the catalyst, and understanding the underlying degradation mechanisms. In addition, various characterization techniques were employed to gain a fundamental understanding of the materials’ behavior and their impact on cell performance, providing vital information to guide materials discovery and cell design. After defect chemistry engineering, the optimized donor and acceptor co-doped electrolytes BaMo/W 0.03 Ce 0.71 Yb 0.26 O 3-δ (BM/W03) showed substantially improved chemical stability against high concentrations of CO 2 and H 2 O compared to the state-of-the-art electrolyte (BaZr 0.1 Ce 0.7 Y 0.1 Yb 0.1 O 3-δ , BZCYYb1711) while maintaining comparable ionic conductivity and ionic transference number. To bypass the inherent trade-off between conductivity and chemical stability, we fabricated a bi-layer electrolyte composed of BZCYYb1711 coated with a highly-stable thin layer of BaHf 0.83 Yb 0.17 O 3-δ (BHYb). This bi-layer electrolyte displayed excellent chemical stability against high concentration CO 2 ; there was no detectable formation of BaCO 3 after exposure to 97% CO 2 (with 3% H 2 O) at 500 °C for 1000 hours and the rate of degradation in resistance was about 0.4% per 1,000 hours (kh). In contrast, the same BZCYYb1711 electrolyte without a BHYb coating degraded significantly under the same testing conditions; the degradation rate was increased to 5.1%/kh. In addition, a triple conducting air electrode Ba 0.9 Pr 0.1 Hf 0.1 Y0.1Co 0.8 O 3-δ (BPHYC) was developed by heavily doping transition metal ions into a proton-conducting material. This air electrode material, composed of 3 distinct phases, exhibits superior electrocatalytic activity due to the synergistic effect from the three component phases. Moreover, an active and durable catalyst, La 2 Ni 0.5 Fe 0.5 O 4+δ (LNF), was developed, showing excellent catalytic activity and contaminant tolerance, with a degradation rate of only 0.49%/kh when exposed to high concentrations of steam and Cr. Finally, single cells were constructed from the best electrolytes, electrodes, and catalyst coatings developed in this project. These cells demonstrated superior high current density at a given cell voltage, high roundtrip efficiency, and remarkable durability (up to 1000 hours of operation).

08 HYDROGEN↗
DOE OSTI2020

Building Demand Flexibility: Grid Service Value of Future Market Entrants

The building sector is an important source of demand-side flexibility that is crucial for renewable energy integration in the future power systems. The grid service value of building flexibility, especially that which provides load shifting, has not been analyzed for the United States. We use a technology-agnostic approach based on detailed grid expansion and production cost modeling results to evaluate the capacity, energy, and ancillary service values of a marginal kilowatt-hour (kWh) of daily, shiftable building flexibility as a presumed market entrant in the 2030 U.S. power systems. We find the monthly mean of building flexibility has a range of 0-38 cents/kWh-day, depending on the original usage hour, month, region, building flexibility parameters, and grid scenario. The daily value consists of the highest-value hour each day across all the scenarios has a range of 0-620 cents/kWh-day. The results are provided in an open database for users to obtain the values of specific technologies based on what services can be provided, when, and in what quantities.

30 DIRECT ENERGY CONVERSION↗
DOE OSTI2023

Small Reactors in Microgrids: Technology Modeling and Selection (Net-Zero Microgrid Program Project Report)

This report demonstrates the capabilities of the net-zero microgrid (NZM) Xendee platform for modeling an SR module with electricity, heat extraction and thermal storage in microgrids configurations. The model effectively captures the most important technical and economic considerations for SR technology specific analysis: cost and operational characteristics of SR technology and financial costs and incentives. The model can analyze multiple scenarios to establish metrics for cost-competitive and zero-carbon microgrids connected to the grid or completely isolated. The model is fully integrated within the Xendee platform for modeling and analysis of clean energy microgrids with storage and generation from renewable energy sources. The model captures the capabilities, constraints, and nuances of SR by incorporating parameters related to plant economics, design efficiency and performance, plant operation and component and fuel lifespan. The cost and operational parameters modeled in the SR module are specific to the technology selected for integration in the microgrid. Cost parameters recognize advanced nuclear technology for modular production and installation based on economies of scale from factory manufacture and related commissioning, and cost reduction through technology maturation—first-of-a-kind (FOAK) and nth-of-a-Kind (NOAK). The cost parameters include installation, operations and maintenance (O&M), fuel refueling cycle, and reactor life. Installation cost reflects economies of scale due to unit sizing at scale and colocation. O&M economies of scale for both fixed- and variable-cost fuel life-cycle costs are incurred at every refueling interval, with separate front- and back-end fuel costs, as well as waste-handling and disposition costs. This report investigates key characteristics of different SR technologies suitable for microgrid applications, including design principles, sizing, coolant properties, temperature ratings, fuel structures, and life-cycle considerations. This also includes fuel technologies applicable to these SR systems, alongside strategies for nuclear-waste and spent-fuel management and approaches to address safety, security, and proliferation challenges. Four primary groups of SR technologies are examined: water-cooled, liquid-metal-cooled, high-temperature gas-cooled, and molten-salt-cooled systems. In this report, an initial guideline for technology selection is established, aligning the characteristics of the technologies with the requirements of microgrids. The selection of technology in a microgrid is influenced by various factors, including financial capacity, location and accessibility, demand type and characteristics, reliability and resilience requirements, area constraints, and the lifespan of the microgrid. The types of electrical and non-electrical applications within the microgrid also play a significant role in technology selection. The characteristics of SRs, such as their smaller size, modularity, transportability, long refueling interval, improved safety features, ability to operate in autonomous or semi-autonomous mode, and provision of high-grade heat, are particularly appealing for microgrids. Furthermore, a list of considerations for implementing SRs in microgrids is outlined. The SR model is created to be continuously improved with the acquisition of actual data on investment and operational costs, experience with supply chains, production at scale, and field deployments. In the near term, performance data on applications in microgrids will become available from lessons learned from laboratory tests, such as those planned for the Microreactor Applications Research Validation and Evaluation Project (MARVEL), led by Idaho National Laboratory (INL). The SR model incorporates scenario data and known SR design specifications, enabling technoeconomic analysis for SR deployment in microgrids. It specifically considers the distinctive attributes of SRs as generators in technoeconomic studies. SRs can be modeled and analyzed with generation from renewable-energy sources, energy storage, and flexible loads over a range of functionality and applications. This offers a comprehensive tool for feasibility studies, scenario development, and sensitivity analysis for “what-if” consideration of any range of assumptions about SRs in microgrids and other aggregations of distributed-energy resources, including virtual power plants.

21 SPECIFIC NUCLEAR REACTORS AND ASSOCIATED PLANTS↗
DOE OSTI2023

DFO Computational Modeling Project - Catalytic Upgrading of Bio-based Furfural to 1,5-Pentanediol: A New Renewable Monomer for the Coatings Industry (Final Report)

This report summarizes the results of a collaborative effort between Oak Ridge National Laboratory (ORNL) and Pyran™ Inc. to utilize modeling capabilities developed by the CCPC (Consortium for Computational Physics and Chemistry) to assist Pyran in scaling up its proprietary process for thermocatalytic conversion of furfural to 1,5 pentanediol (PDO). Pyran’s bio-based PDO is a direct replacement for petroleum-based PDO and 1,6 hexanediol (HDO) currently used in polymers, additives, coatings, adhesives and sealants. The current market is in excess of $\$$1B/yr. According to Pyran, their production process results in 95+% reduction in fossil CO 2 at lower production costs compared to the existing petroleum-based routes for PDO & HDO. Other chemicals based on intermediates from this process have current markets in excess of $\$$10B/yr.

36 MATERIALS SCIENCE↗
DOE OSTI2023

Catalytic Upgrading of Bio-based Furfural to 1,5-Pentanediol: A New Renewable Monomer for the Coatings Industry

This report summarizes the results of a collaborative effort between Oak Ridge National Laboratory (ORNL) and Pyran™ Inc. to utilize modeling capabilities developed by the CCPC (Consortium for Computational Physics and Chemistry) to assist Pyran in scaling up its proprietary process for thermocatalytic conversion of furfural to 1,5 pentanediol (PDO). Pyran’s bio-based PDO is a direct replacement for petroleum-based PDO and 1,6 hexanediol (HDO) currently used in polymers, additives, coatings, adhesives and sealants. The current market is in excess of $1B/yr. According to Pyran, their production process results in 95+% reduction in fossil CO 2 at lower production costs compared to the existing petroleum-based routes for PDO & HDO. Other chemicals based on intermediates from this process have current markets in excess of $10B/yr.

37 INORGANIC, ORGANIC, PHYSICAL, AND ANALYTICAL CH↗
DOE OSTI2022

Comparison of Commercial, State-of-the-Art, Fossil-Based Hydrogen Production Technologies

Presentation describing NETL's public report entitled "Comparison of Commercial, State-of-the-Art, Fossil-Based Hydrogen Production Technologies" which features levelized cost of hydrogen (LCOH) and greenhouse gas emissions from six cases (3 reforming and 3 gasification technology cases) as well as CO2 capture. One case also features coal/biomass co-gasification that targeted net-zero emissions.

Stevens, Robert↗
DOE OSTI2025

Getting brighter: Impacts of improved day-ahead solar forecasts in high-solar, high-storage electricity systems

This paper analyzes the impacts of improved day-ahead solar forecasts on costs and dispatch in the solar-rich Southeast U.S. It uses an optimized high-solar, high-storage resource portfolio in which solar generation capacity accounts for 45 % of total installed capacity (34 %–36 % of generation) and energy storage capacity (43 GW) is equivalent to 33 % of peak demand. In a base scenario, improved day-ahead solar forecasts reduce production costs by $\$87$ million per year ($\$0.13$ per MWh load, $2023$$). This level of savings is within the range or lower than earlier studies of solar forecast improvements at lower levels of solar generation (<25 % of total generation). In this study, solar expansion was accompanied by two important sources of flexibility for managing solar forecast error: energy storage and day-ahead solar curtailment. Furthermore, the analysis finds that regional coordination complements day-ahead solar forecast improvements while natural gas commitment flexibility is a substitute for forecast improvements, as the improved solar forecast leads to sub-optimal commitment of thermal units. Day-ahead solar forecast improvements reduce reserves required to manage forecast error by 30 %. Fewer reserves to manage large, infrequent solar forecast errors could be an important benefit of improved solar forecasts.

14 SOLAR ENERGY↗
DOE OSTI2025

Strategies for simulating the time evolution of Hamiltonian lattice field theories

Simulating the time evolution of quantum field theories given some Hamiltonian H requires developing algorithms for implementing the unitary operator e -iHt . A variety of techniques exist that accomplish this task, with the most common technique used so far being Trotterization, which is a special case of the application of a product formula. However, other techniques exist that promise better asymptotic scaling in certain parameters of the theory being simulated, the most efficient of which are based on the concept of block encoding. In this work we study the performance of such algorithms in simulating lattice field theories. We derive and compare the asymptotic gate complexities of several commonly used simulation techniques in application to Hamiltonian lattice field theories. Using the scalar $\hat{φ}$ 4 theory as a test, we also perform numerical studies and compare the gate costs required by product formulas and signal-processing-based techniques to simulate time evolution. For the latter, we use the linear combination of unitaries (LCU) construction augmented with the quantum Fourier transform circuit to switch between the field and momentum eigenbases, which leads to immediate order-of-magnitude improvement in the cost of preparing the block encoding. Further, this paper also includes a pedagogical review of the techniques used, in particular product formulas, LCU, qubitization, quantum signal processing, as well as the technique for simulating geometrically-local Hamiltonians developed by Haah, Hastings, Kothari, and Low.

71 CLASSICAL AND QUANTUM MECHANICS, GENERAL PHYSIC↗
DOE OSTI2022

Transmission Alternatives for California North Coast Offshore Wind, Volume 4: Cost-Benefit Analysis Report

The purpose of this report is to compare the costs and benefits of installing offshore wind power plants with capacities up to 500 megawatts (MW) in the Humboldt Wind Energy Area offshore California, focusing on identifying the costs related to transmission upgrades and possible alternatives such as energy storage. We identify several options that result in lower costs than upgrading transmission to provide full deliverability. Our estimates of the levelized cost of energy (LCOE) assuming full deliverability range from $80/MWh for a 144-MW plant to $73/MWh for a 480-MW plant with a 2030 commercial operation date; however, the additional cost of transmission upgrades increases these values to between $86/MWh and $98/MWh. Based on curtailment and revenue estimates developed using a production cost model, the LCOEs for plant capacities of 144 MW and 168 MW with Energy Only deliverability are lower than the combined cost of energy and transmission upgrades for full deliverability. The addition of a 4-hour, 15-MW battery energy storage system increases revenue for both plant sizes, with the 144 MW + storage scenario producing the most revenue relative to LCOE.

17 WIND ENERGY↗
DOE OSTI2025

Noble-Metal-Free, Nickel-Based Dual Functional Materials for Improved Methane Production from In Situ Carbon Dioxide Capture and Conversion

Promoters for dual functional materials have not been well explored, but promoters could improve the efficiency of the process by improving the selectivity of the CO 2 methanation process. Utilizing integrated capture and conversion, where CO 2 is captured and converted to useful products, would allow for a useful avenue to control CO 2 emissions. One such way to accomplish this would be to utilize materials that can both capture and convert CO 2 to useful products. However, these materials are often based on costly noble metals, like ruthenium and platinum, decreasing their viability on an industrial scale. Less expensive metals, for example, nickel, would allow for dual functional materials to be more readily utilized in industrial settings. Nickel-based dual functional materials often do not react with the captured CO 2 and merely desorb the CO 2 rather than form a useful product. However, promoters have not been well explored for these types of materials to improve the catalytic properties, which would be beneficial to improve nickel-based materials. Herein, we report the addition of ytterbium on a nickel-based dual functional material and the improvements to the production of methane from captured CO 2 with the incorporated ytterbium promoter. The ytterbium promoter improves the selectivity of the catalysts for the hydrogenation of captured CO 2 to methane and increases the ability for the material to capture CO 2 due to additional basic sites being formed on the surface of alumina. As a result, the 12%Ni/4%Yb/6%Na 2 O/Al 2 O 3 catalyst was utilized to capture carbon dioxide and then convert the captured CO 2 to methane over five cycles, where both the amount captured and the amount converted remained stable, indicating the stability of the material over long-term use.

Catalysts↗
DOE OSTI2020

Tandem particle-slurry batch reactors for solar water splitting (Final Scientific/Technical Report)

Economically, particle slurry reactors are projected to be one of the most promising technologies for solar photoelectrochemical hydrogen production, according to a 2009 techno-economic analysis commissioned by the US DOE and performed by Directed Technologies, Inc. The Fuel Cell Technologies Office’s Multi-Year Research, Development and Demonstration (MYRD&D) goals and targets are to reduce the cost of H 2 produced from renewable sources at the plant gate (i.e. not including delivery, dispensing, or storage) to < $2.00/gge, equivalent to ~$2.00/kg H 2 . Research results from our techno-economic modeling research suggest that this target could be met using particle slurry reactors assuming STH efficiencies in the range of 5 – 10%, materials lifetimes of < 1 year, and nanoparticles that cost up to 20 times more than projected costs of TiO 2 -coated Fe 2 O 3 nanoparticles. Although most large worldwide research efforts directed at solar photoelectrochemical hydrogen production focus on wafer-based designs, the projected lower cost for a particle slurry reactor at these disparate projected STH efficiencies clearly suggests that particle slurry reactors could be a scalable and deployable technology, assuming several challenges are overcome. These major technological challenges include the demonstration of a vertically-stacked-vessel architecture that is capable of operating sustainably while mostly relying on diffusion and natural convection to mix the redox shuttles between the vessels, and the demonstration that photocatalyst particles can operate at an overall 1% STH efficiency or larger when incorporated into this two-vessel design. Our research adds to the understanding of photocatalytic reactors for solar water splitting through numerical modeling results and experimental results. Numerical models were developed to simulate relevant device physics including particle and reactor dimensions which affect optical, transport, and rheological properties, electrocatalytic and photovoltaic properties of particles at various temperatures, and properties of redox shuttles and separators. Moreover, theoretical maximum solar-to-hydrogen efficiencies for ensembles of particles like in photocatalyst reactors were modeled and simulated and shown to equal or exceed those of photoelectrochemical designs under most scenarios. These results help determine constraints on the reactor that will enable more optimal designs for future prototypes. In parallel, experiments were performed to identify the most effective redox shuttles and to empirically validate the numerical models and simulations. Toward the latter, state-of-the-art light-absorbing particles and electrocatalysts were synthesized and characterized physically and photoelectrochemically for water electrolysis and redox chemistry with redox shuttles in the form factor of mesoporous electrodes and free-floating particles. The most promising materials candidates were used in a suspension reactor to evaluate performance toward photocatalytic H 2 production and results from the two measurements were compared. Predominantly, state-of-the-art cocatalyst-modified Rh-doped SrTiO 3 and BiVO 4 particles were further characterized to assess for their ability to perform visible-light-driven H 2 and O 2 evolution, respectively, and results were similar to those reported for the state-of-the-art in the peer-reviewed literature. Outcomes from this work inform the public of the effectiveness and promise of solar photocatalytic water splitting for clean and renewable hydrogen production. This work may also help increase research interest and funding for photocatalysis projects, which will accelerate development of a technology that will benefit the public by generating fuel while emitting few greenhouse gases and pollutants.

08 HYDROGEN↗
DOE OSTI2026

Carbon fiber design improvements based on economic models

Circular fiber geometries are predominant in commercial carbon fiber material systems, but the use of this fiber shape has numerous limitations. Circular geometries have continuous symmetry, which is helpful for various processing considerations, but also have the largest possible maximum diffusion thickness for a given fiber area. This characteristic means that circular carbon fibers always have the highest material processing cost and lowest production throughput compared to any other fiber shape with the same area and tow count. To quantify material cost and other benefits for non-circular carbon fiber geometries, process models for polyacrylonitrile based carbon fiber production are developed in relationship to the carbon fiber shape, size, and tow count. For a given fiber shape, precursor production costs are shown to favor maximizing fiber size while conversion costs are minimized by the smallest fiber size. These competing cost trends result in a numerically optimal fiber size for a given shape and tow count, while both cost components are decreased by increasing tow count. Cost–performance tradeoffs for three lobe fiber geometries are studied by supplementing the cost trends with a numerical failure model to predict compressive strength for discrete shape variants. The shape selection is shown to be more sensitive to variations in cost than compressive strength while suboptimal shape designs can improve manufacturing robustness and achievable fiber volume fractions. Finally, an optimal three lobe carbon fiber is identified that balances the set of considerations while reducing costs and embodied energy and increasing production throughput compared to a commercial carbon fiber.

Carbon fiber↗
DOE OSTI2022

Comparison of Commercial, State-of-the-Art, Fossil-Based Hydrogen Production Technologies

This report presents an independent assessment of the cost and performance of select hydrogen production plants utilizing fossil fuel resources as the primary feedstocks – specifically, natural gas (NG), steam methane reforming (SMR), NG autothermal reforming (ATR), coal gasification, and coal/biomass co-gasification – using a systematic, transparent technical and economic approach. Study cases were selected to reflect the capabilities of current, commercial technologies within plant configurations, and at scales, representative of next commercial offerings facing no fundamental research and development (R&D) obstacles. Additionally, several areas of R&D are identified as potential pathways for performance improvements and cost reductions.

08 HYDROGEN↗
DOE OSTI2022

The Role of Regional Connections in Planning for Future Power System Operations Under Climate Extremes

Identifying the sensitivity of future power systems to climate extremes must consider the concurrent effects of changing climate and evolving power systems. We investigated the sensitivity of a Western U.S. power system to isolated and combined heat and drought when it has low (5%) and moderate (31%) variable renewable energy shares, representing historic and future systems. We used an electricity operational model combined with a model of historically extreme drought (for hydropower and freshwater-reliant thermoelectric generators) over the Western U.S. and a synthetic, regionally extreme heat event in Southern California (for thermoelectric generators and electricity load). We found that the drought has the highest impact on summertime production cost (+10% to +12%), while temperature-based deratings have minimal effect (at most +1%). The Southern California heat wave scenario impacting load increases summertime regional net imports to Southern California by 10-14%, while the drought decreases them by 6-12%. Combined heat and drought conditions have a moderate effect on imports to Southern California (-2%) in the historic system and a stronger effect (+8%) in the future system. Southern California dependence on other regions decreases in the summertime with the moderate increase in variable renewable energy (-34% imports), but hourly peak regional imports are maintained under those infrastructure changes. By combining synthetic and historically driven conditions to test two infrastructures, we consolidate the importance of considering compounded heat wave and drought in planning studies and suggest that region-to-region energy transfers during peak periods are key to optimal operations under climate extremes.

24 POWER TRANSMISSION AND DISTRIBUTION↗
DOE OSTI2022

How Can Probabilistic Solar Power Forecasts Be Used to Lower Costs and Improve Reliability in Power Spot Markets? A Review and Application to Flexiramp Requirements

Net load uncertainty in electricity spot markets is rapidly growing. There are five general approaches by which system operators and market participants can use probabilistic forecasts of wind, solar, and load to help manage this uncertainty. These include operator situation awareness, resource risk hedging, reserves procurement, definition of contingencies, and explicit stochastic optimization. We review these approaches, and then provide a case study in which a method for using probabilistic solar forecasts to define needs for reserves is developed and evaluated. The case study has three parts. First, we describe building blocks for enhancing the Watt-Sun solar forecasting system to produce probabilistic irradiance and power forecasts. Second, relationships between Watt-Sun forecasts for multiple sites in California and the system's need for flexible ramp capability (flexiramp) are defined by machine learning and statistical methods. Third, the performance of present methods to defining flexiramp requirements, which are not conditioned on weather and renewables forecasts, is compared with that of probabilistic solar forecast-based requirements, using a multi-timescale production costing model with an 1820-bus representation of the WECC power system. Significant potential savings in fuel and flexiramp procurement costs from using solar-informed reserve requirements are found.

14 SOLAR ENERGY↗