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Overview of processing activities aimed at higher efficiencies and economical production

An overview of processing activities aimed at higher efficiencies and economical production were presented. Present focus is on low-cost process technology for higher-efficiency cells of up to 18% or higher. Process development concerns center on the use of less than optimum silicon sheet, the control of production yields, and making uniformly efficient large-area cells. High-efficiency cell factors that require process development are bulk material perfection, very shallow junction formation, front-surface passivation, and finely detailed metallization. Better bulk properties of the silicon sheet and the keeping of those qualities throughout large areas during cell processing are required so that minority carrier lifetimes are maintained and cell performance is not degraded by high doping levels. When very shallow junctions are formed, the process must be sensitive to metallizatin punch-through, series resisitance in the cell, and control of dopant leaching during surface passivation. There is a need to determine the sensitivity to processing by mathematical modeling and experimental activities.

Bickler, D. B.↗

Sensitivity of Precipitation Processes to Microphysics and Resolution in a Cloud-resolving Model

The Goddard Cumulus Ensemble (GCE) model is used to examine the impact of various microphysical schemes, and vertical and horizontal resolution on the development, intensity and rainfall associated with mesoscale convective systems, idealized hurricanes and an ensemble of clouds. The model variables include horizontal and vertical velocities, potential temperature, perturbation pressure, turbulent kinetic energy, and mixing ratios of all water phases (vapor, liquid, and ice). The major characteristics of the GCE model are the explicit representation of warm rain and ice microphysical processes, and their complex interactions with solar and infrared radiative transfer processes. For idealized hurricane, an axisymmetric version of the GCE model was developed and used successfully to simulate the tropical cyclogenesis process using both a Rankin vortex and saturated air within a specified radius as initial conditions. For mesoscale convective systems, the 3-D version of the GCE model was used to simulate squall lines that developed in the western Pacific, South China Sea, eastern Atlantic, South America and central US. For the cloud ensemble, the GCE model was integrated for several days in order to have a good sampling of cloud statistics.

Tao, Wei-Kuo↗

Multi-Model and Multi-Scale Global Sensitivity Analysis for Identifying Controlling Processes of Complex Systems

An environmental model consists of multiple process level sub-models, and each sub-model represents a process that is key to the operation of the simulated system. Global sensitivity analysis methods have been widely used to identify important processes for system model development and improvement. The existing methods of global sensitivity analysis only consider parametric uncertainty, and are not capable of handling model uncertainty caused by multiple process models that arise from competing hypotheses about one or more processes. To address this problem, this project develops a new method to probe model output sensitivity to competing process models by integrating model averaging methods with variance-based global sensitivity analysis to address uncertainty in process models and parameters. The new method yields three process sensitivity indices. The first one is called first-order process sensitivity index, and it is derived as a single summary measure of relative process importance. Evaluating the index is computationally expensive, because it relies in a Monte Carlo scheme that requires thousands and even millions of model executions. To reduce computational cost, this project develops a computationally efficient, quasi Monte Carlo method, and this method is presented in Chapter 2 of this report with and a numerical example for demonstration. The numerical example shows that the results of the quasi Monte Carlo method are substantially close to those of the full Monte Carlo method, but the computational cost of the quasi Monte Carlo method is only 0.7% of that of the full Monte Carlo method. The second index is called total-effect process sensitivity index, and it measures interactions between different processes. Therefore, this sensitivity index includes the first-order process sensitivity index, and can be used to identify influential processes. On the other hand, the total-effect process sensitivity index can also be used to screen non-influential processes. This is demonstrated by two numerical examples using the Sobol-G* functions and groundwater flow models that consider recharge process, geological process, and snowmelt process. The numerical examples shows that the total-effect process sensitivity index is more informative than the first-order process sensitivity. The derivation of the process sensitivity index and the numerical examples are discussed in Chapter 3. Chapter 4 presents two computationally efficient methods for screening non-influential processes to exclude them from further investigation. The two methods are the multi-model difference-based sensitivity (MMDS) analysis method, which can be implemented using the Latin Hypercube Sampling. The second one is the implementation of MMDS method using a binning method. The numerical example for the Sobol-G* function indicates the two methods are capable of identifying non-influential models, and the numerical examples for the groundwater flow and reactive transport show that the two methods are effective for groundwater problems. However, it should be noted that the two methods are numerical approximations, and they can only be used for screening non-influential processes, not for ranking importance of system processes. All the sensitivity analysis methods are implemented by developing python codes, and the codes are in a software called SAMMPY: a python package for process sensitivity analysis under multiple models. The SAMMPY design and structure are discussed in Chapter 5, and the package is released to the public for free download.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

Multi‐hypothesis comparison of Farquhar and Collatz photosynthesis models reveals the unexpected influence of empirical assumptions at leaf and global scales

Abstract Mechanistic photosynthesis models are at the heart of terrestrial biosphere models (TBMs) simulating the daily, monthly, annual and decadal rhythms of carbon assimilation ( A ). These models are founded on robust mathematical hypotheses that describe how A responds to changes in light and atmospheric CO 2 concentration. Two predominant photosynthesis models are in common usage: Farquhar (FvCB) and Collatz (CBGB). However, a detailed quantitative comparison of these two models has never been undertaken. In this study, we unify the FvCB and CBGB models to a common parameter set and use novel multi‐hypothesis methods (that account for both hypothesis and parameter variability) for process‐level sensitivity analysis. These models represent three key biological processes: carboxylation, electron transport, triose phosphate use (TPU) and an additional model process: limiting‐rate selection. Each of the four processes comprises 1–3 alternative hypotheses giving 12 possible individual models with a total of 14 parameters. To broaden inference, TBM simulations were run and novel, high‐resolution photosynthesis measurements were made. We show that parameters associated with carboxylation are the most influential parameters but also reveal the surprising and marked dominance of the limiting‐rate selection process (accounting for 57% of the variation in A vs. 22% for carboxylation). The limiting‐rate selection assumption proposed by CBGB smooths the transition between limiting rates and always reduces A below the minimum of all potentially limiting rates, by up to 25%, effectively imposing a fourth limitation on A . Evaluation of the CBGB smoothing function in three TBMs demonstrated a reduction in global A by 4%–10%, equivalent to 50%–160% of current annual fossil fuel emissions. This analysis reveals a surprising and previously unquantified influence of a process that has been integral to many TBMs for decades, highlighting the value of multi‐hypothesis methods.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

Final Report On Non-Intrusive Load Monitoring Of Welding Processes

The conventional method of weld process monitoring is to monitor the process output electrical power close to the point of welding. Non-Intrusive Load Monitoring (NILM) describes the method of monitoring primary or utility electrical power into a welding process well away from the point of welding. The objective of this project was to determine if there is sufficient information within the welding process input power to understand process output power characteristics, and, if so, determine if there is sufficient resolution within the input electrical characteristics to infer some measures of weld quality. To understand the relationship between process input and output power, both input and output power were monitored for two welding processes (GMAW and GTAW) and two different power source types (inverter and SCR). Welds were made with and without intentional disturbances. The results showed that there is a strong correlation between input and output power and that the influence of process disturbances are evident within the input power. A simple method using input power only was devised and successfully demonstrated to discriminate between a weld made with no intentional disturbance (a nominal weld) from a weld made with an intentional disturbance (off-nominal weld). The primary conclusions of this work is that NILM of process input power is sensitive to process disturbances that could influence weld quality and that the approach warrants additional study.

36 MATERIALS SCIENCE↗

Process for ultra-sensitive quantification of target analytes in complex biological systems

Antibody-free processes are disclosed that provide accurate quantification of a wide variety of low-abundance target analytes in complex samples. The processes can employ high-pressure, high-resolution chromatographic separations for analyte enrichment. Intelligent selection of target fractions may be performed via on-line Selected Reaction Monitoring (SRM) or off-line rapid screening of internal standards. Quantification may be performed on individual or multiplexed fractions. Applications include analyses of, e.g., very low abundance proteins or candidate biomarkers in plasma, cell, or tissue samples without the need for affinity-specific reagents.

Shi, Tujin↗

A Process-based, Climate-Sensitive Model to Derive Methane Emissions from Natural Wetlands: Application to 5 Wetland Sites, Sensitivity to Model Parameters and Climate

Methane emissions from natural wetlands constitutes the largest methane source at present and depends highly on the climate. In order to investigate the response of methane emissions from natural wetlands to climate variations, a 1-dimensional process-based climate-sensitive model to derive methane emissions from natural wetlands is developed. In the model the processes leading to methane emission are simulated within a 1-dimensional soil column and the three different transport mechanisms diffusion, plant-mediated transport and ebullition are modeled explicitly. The model forcing consists of daily values of soil temperature, water table and Net Primary Productivity, and at permafrost sites the thaw depth is included. The methane model is tested using observational data obtained at 5 wetland sites located in North America, Europe and Central America, representing a large variety of environmental conditions. It can be shown that in most cases seasonal variations in methane emissions can be explained by the combined effect of changes in soil temperature and the position of the water table. Our results also show that a process-based approach is needed, because there is no simple relationship between these controlling factors and methane emissions that applies to a variety of wetland sites. The sensitivity of the model to the choice of key model parameters is tested and further sensitivity tests are performed to demonstrate how methane emissions from wetlands respond to climate variations.

Walter, Bernadette P.↗

Understanding the eco-geomorphologic feedback of coastal marsh under sea level rise: vegetation dynamic representations, processes interaction, and parametric sensitivity

A growing number of coastal eco-geomorphologic modeling studies have been conducted to understand coastal marsh evolution under sea-level rise (SLR). Although these models quantify marsh topographic change as a function of sedimentation and erosion, their representations of vegetation dynamics that control organic sedimentation differ. How vegetation dynamic schemes contribute to simulation outcomes is not well quantified. Additionally, the sensitivity of modeling outcomes to parameter selection in the available formulations has not been rigorously tested to date, especially under the influence of an accelerating SLR. In this paper, we used a coastal eco-geomorphologic model with different vegetation dynamic schemes to investigate the eco-geomorphologic feedbacks of coastal marshes and parametric sensitivity under SLR scenarios. We found that marsh platform relief increased with sea level rise rate. The simulations with different vegetation schemes exhibited different spatial-temporal variations in elevation and biomass. The nonlinear Spartina scheme presented the most resilient prediction with generally the highest marsh accretion and vegetation biomass, and the least elevation relief under SLR. But the linear Spartina scheme predicts the lowest unvegetated-vegetated ratio. We also found that vegetation-related parameters and sediment diffusivity, which were not well measured or discussed in previous studies, were identified as some of the most critical parameters. Additionally, the model sensitivity to vegetation-related parameters increased with SLR rates. The identified most sensitive parameters may inform how to appropriately choose modeling representations of key processes and parameters for different coastal marsh landscapes under SLR, and demonstrate the importance of future field measurements of these key parameters.

58 GEOSCIENCES↗

A dual-task investigation of automaticity in visual word processing

An analysis of activation models of visual word processing suggests that frequency-sensitive forms of lexical processing should proceed normally while unattended. This hypothesis was tested by having participants perform a speeded pitch discrimination task followed by lexical decisions or word naming. As the stimulus onset asynchrony between the tasks was reduced, lexical-decision and naming latencies increased dramatically. Word-frequency effects were additive with the increase, indicating that frequency-sensitive processing was subject to postponement while attention was devoted to the other task. Either (a) the same neural hardware shares responsibility for lexical processing and central stages of choice reaction time task processing and cannot perform both computations simultaneously, or (b) lexical processing is blocked in order to optimize performance on the pitch discrimination task. Either way, word processing is not as automatic as activation models suggest.

Attention↗

A New Method for Ice-Ice Aggregation in the Adaptive Habit Model

In this paper, a novel methodology for modeling ice-ice aggregation is presented. This methodology combines a modified hydrodynamic collection algorithm with bulk aggregate characteristic information from an offline simulator that collects ice particles, namely, the Ice Particle and Aggregate Simulator, and has been implemented into the Adaptive Habit Microphysics scheme in the Weather Research and Forecasting Model. Aggregates, or snow, are formed via collection of cloud ice particles, where initial ice characteristics and the resulting geometry determine aggregate characteristics. Upon implementation, idealized squall-line simulations are performed to examine the new methodology in comparison with commonly used bulk microphysics schemes. It is found that the adaptive habit aggregation parameterization develops snow and reduces ice mass and number concentrations compared to other schemes. The development of aggregates through the new methodology cascades into other interesting effects, including enhancements in ice and snow growth, as well as homogeneous freezing. Further microphysical analyses reveal varying sensitivities, where snow processes are most sensitive to the new parameterization, followed by ice, then cloud, rain, and graupel processes. Further, the new scheme results in enhancements in surface precipitation due to the persistence of snow at lower altitudes. This persistence is a result of shape-dependent melting and sublimation, increasing the residence time. Moreover, these low-level enhancements are reflected in increases in radar reflectivity at the surface and its spatial distribution. Finally, the ability to predict snow shape and density allows for the simulation of polarimetric radar quantities, resulting in signature enhancements compared to schemes that do not consider spatial and temporal variations in snow shape and density.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

Gaussian Process Optimization of Sensitivity-Based Similarity Metrics between New Nuclear Applications and New/Existing Benchmarks [Slides]

This presentation discusses Nuclear Criticality Safety (NCS) and how designing safe, new nuclear criticality experiments requires expert judgement, which could take years of experience. Sensitivity/uncertainty (S/U) analysis can be utilized by less experienced individuals to conservatively estimate uncertainties in important parameters, such as k eff , in newly proposed nuclear experiments. The presentation poses the question of how this analysis can be performed and states that the answer lies in matching new nuclear experiments with existing benchmark experiments using similarity metrics. By increasing the criticality safety of the application in this work, higher mass limits could be used in PF-4 operations. Additionally, the presentation discusses MCNP6.2®, Whisper-1.1, the software that can be used in this analysis. Also discussed is the fact that International Criticality Safety Benchmark Evaluation Project (ICSBEP) benchmarks rarely match new nuclear applications and that there are significant differences in given set of materials and/or geometry. If there are no benchmarks that match the application, the presentation discusses the possibility of creating new benchmarks. In conclusion, this work presents a Gaussian process (GP) optimization scheme that was used to generate new benchmarks with the highest sensitivity-based similarity metrics to user-defined nuclear applications. The Gaussian process optimization successfully designed 3 new experimental benchmarks that were highly correlated to the application of interest and had k eff values near critical. Optimization over c k,i-r has shown that investigating specific isotope reactions for different applications is crucial to designing benchmark experiments. Partial contribution from Pu dominates c k similarity metric. Future work includes testing new stand-alone similarity metrics or new combinations of similarity metrics as the design criterion of this optimization – design criterion is application dependent.

73 NUCLEAR PHYSICS AND RADIATION PHYSICS↗

Isotopic Investigations of Nebular and Parent Body Processes with a High Sensitivity Ion Microprobe

NASA supported the development of the CAMECA ims 1270 ion microprobe at UCLA for applications in cosmochemistry. The primary investigations centered on measuring the microscopic distributions of key isotopic abundances in primitive meteoritic materials as a means of constraining the nature of important thermal and chemical processes in the solar nebula and the timescales associated with those processes. Our prior work on oxygen isotope anomalies in a wide variety of meteoritic materials had led us to a view of a spatially heterogeneous nebula, and in particular, a restricted region for CAI formation that is characterized by O-16-rich gas. Because of its production of CAIs in the energetic local environment near the protosun, the existence of a natural transport mechanism via bipolar outflows, and a general astrophysical plausibility, we were attracted to the fluctuating X-wind model which had been put forward by Frank Shu, Typhoon Lee, and colleagues. With our collaborators, we undertook a series of investigations to test the viability of this hypothesis; this work led directly to the discovery of live Be in CAIs and a clear demonstration of the existence of 160-rich condensates, which necessarily implies an O-16-rich gaseous reservoir in the nebula. Both of these observations fit well within the context of X-wind type models, i.e. formation of CAIs (or condensation of their precursors) in the reconnection ring sunward of the inner edge of the accretion disk, however much work remains to be done to test whether the physical parameters of the model can quantitatively predict not only the thermal histories of CAIs but also their radioactivity. The issue of spatial heterogeneity in the nebula, central to the X-wind model, is also at the heart of any chronology based on short-lived radioisotopes. In this work, we followed up on strong hints for presence of exireme:j: (53 day) short-lived Be-7, and have prepared a manuscript (in revision). We also measured A1-Mg systematics by a combined approach of high-precision multiple-collector SIMS analyses, traditional analyses on the UCLA ims 1270, and high-spatial resolution analyses using a NanoSIMS instrument. The data help to deconvolve effects due to partial resetting of the A1-Mg system by multiple thermal events. Finally, we initiated investigations related to nebular heterogeneity with a new initiative of in situ high-precision sulfur isotope analyses of sulfides from a wide variety of components of chondrites. The ultimate goal of all this work is to help develop a better understanding of the relationships between CAIs and chondrules, the astrophysical environments in which they formed, and the timescales of nebular processes. As detailed in Table 1, for the project period, 14 manuscripts were published and 17 abstracts were presented describing the work.

McKeegan, Kevin D.↗

Mechanical and Electrochemical Implications of Drying Temperature on Lithium‐Ion Battery Electrodes

Abstract Lithium‐ion battery (LIB) electrodes are typically produced with n‐methyl‐2‐pyrrolidone, a toxic solvent that is a known carcinogen and reproductive hazard. Accordingly, aqueous processing has been an expanding area of research interest in the field of LIB manufacturing. Although aqueous processing has been widely successful in anode processing, serious challenges remain in processing the cathode. In this work, the drying mechanics of cathode processed with both solvents is investigated though implementation of a chemical‐engineering‐based model to better understand the utilization of heat provided by experimentally determining the heat and mass transfer coefficients. Electrochemical performance is also evaluated to determine the impact of drying temperature on cycling performance. Binder distribution is determined via various methods to confirm differences in binder homogeneity as a function of both solvent and drying temperature. Identified is the large difference in the efficiency in which the heat is used as well as an ideal drying temperature for both aqueous and non‐aqueous processed cathodes. Also identified is the increased sensitivity to processing temperature for aqueous processed electrodes compared to non‐aqueous processed counterparts, pointing to the possibility of tuned drying regimes which would capitalize on the potential cost savings of aqueous processing for cathodes.

25 ENERGY STORAGE↗

Analysis of Historical Power Outages of the United States and the National Risk Index

Several works have been documented in the literature to study the societal effect of power outages and to analyze their correlation with the Social Vulnerability Index (SVI). However, the relationship between National Risk Index (NRI) and power outages is yet to be explored. This work analyzes the NRI indices such as Risk, Expected Annual Loss, Social Vulnerability, and Community Resilience with several resilience metrics such as event duration, impact duration, recovery duration, impact level, impact rate, recovery rate, recovery to impact ratio, and area under the outage curves to see the correlation of NRI indices with the resilience metrics. The results show that NRI indices such as Risk and Expected Annual Loss increase with the increase of event duration, impact duration, and recovery duration. All Other metrics are indifferent to the change in the Risk and EAL ratings. The results also show that there is no strong relationship between all the metrics and community resilience and social vulnerability. This work also performed the sensitivity analysis of the extreme event selection process. This sensitivity analysis reveals that the way of identifying extreme events has a significant impact on the evaluation of the events.

Bhusal, Narayan↗

Economic and environmental performance of biomass gasification for renewable natural gas production in the context of the U.S. natural gas supply

Bioenergy technologies offer potential for reducing greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions. One such promising technology is biomass gasification, which is the conversion of biomass into renewable natural gas (RNG) for use with a natural gas combined-cycle power generation system. However, the associated economic and emission effects need to be better understood to enable optimal decision-making and avoid missed opportunities for enhancing efficiency and increasing system circularity. This analysis explores opportunities to (1) decarbonize natural-gas-based systems and (2) leverage the extensive US natural gas infrastructure to mobilize biomass resources to achieve environmental and economic benefits. Here, in this analysis, the research team used a spatially explicit biomass logistics model (integrated with relevant biomass availability, technoeconomic analysis, and life cycle assessment information) to simulate economically optimal biomass allocation for RNG production and use for decarbonization in the United States. Results show that the United States has the potential to produce 9203 million GJ of RNG within the expected range of $\$$12–30/GJ. Further analyses tested the overall RNG production system's sensitivity to economic and emissions parameters of nine different processes. The sensitivity analysis results indicate that the median carbon abatement cost of RNG is most sensitive to changes in emissions associated with conversion processes and land use changes. These findings provide a deeper understanding of RNG's economic and emission potential for decision-making and guiding future research.

09 BIOMASS FUELS↗

Gaussian Process Optimization of Sensitivity-Based Similarity Metrics between New Nuclear Applications and New/Existing Benchmarks

Confidently designing safe, new nuclear criticality experiments requires expert judgement, which could take years of experience. Sensitivity/uncertainty (S/U) analysis can be utilized by less experienced individuals to conservatively estimate uncertainties in important parameters, such as k eff , in newly proposed nuclear applications. This type of analysis relies on matching new nuclear applications with existing benchmark experiments. The Whisper-1.1 software package included in MCNP6.2 ®1 contains more than 1,100 International Criticality Safety Benchmark Evaluation Project (ICSBEP) benchmarks. These benchmarks however rarely match new nuclear applications. The number of benchmarks available to match a given set of materials or geometric configurations varies significantly. Furthermore, recently performed benchmark experiments may not have had enough time to be properly documented and published. Benchmarks are vital for determining the accuracy of nuclear data and can assist nuclear physics and evaluators in improving nuclear data libraries. Exhaustively exploring the parameter space using simulations with software such as MCNP is too computationally expensive. In this work, Gaussian process optimization was implemented to reduce the number of simulations needed for optimization over multiple parameters. This optimization scheme was designed to selectively generate new benchmarks with high sensitivity-based similarity metrics to user-defined nuclear applications. Two benchmark models of spherically nested shells containing plutonium, uranium, tantalum, and water were used in the optimization to match an application containing plutonium plates, stacked in a tantalum reflector, surrounded by water.

73 NUCLEAR PHYSICS AND RADIATION PHYSICS↗

Implementation of Complex Signal Processing Algorithms for Position-Sensitive Microcalorimeters

We have recently reported on a theoretical digital signal-processing algorithm for improved energy and position resolution in position-sensitive, transition-edge sensor (POST) X-ray detectors [Smith et al., Nucl, lnstr and Meth. A 556 (2006) 2371. PoST's consists of one or more transition-edge sensors (TES's) on a large continuous or pixellated X-ray absorber and are under development as an alternative to arrays of single pixel TES's. PoST's provide a means to increase the field-of-view for the fewest number of read-out channels. In this contribution we extend the theoretical correlated energy position optimal filter (CEPOF) algorithm (originally developed for 2-TES continuous absorber PoST's) to investigate the practical implementation on multi-pixel single TES PoST's or Hydras. We use numerically simulated data for a nine absorber device, which includes realistic detector noise, to demonstrate an iterative scheme that enables convergence on the correct photon absorption position and energy without any a priori assumptions. The position sensitivity of the CEPOF implemented on simulated data agrees very well with the theoretically predicted resolution. We discuss practical issues such as the impact of random arrival phase of the measured data on the performance of the CEPOF. The CEPOF algorithm demonstrates that full-width-at- half-maximum energy resolution of < 8 eV coupled with position-sensitivity down to a few 100 eV should be achievable for a fully optimized device.

Smith, Stephen J.↗

Uncertainty Quantification and Sensitivity Analysis in Process-Structure-Property Simulations for Laser Powder Bed Fusion Additive Manufacturing

Process variations and process-induced defects like porosity cause significant uncertainty in the microstructure and mechanical behavior of additively manufactured metals. Establishing process-structure-property (PSP) relationships and quantifying uncertainty using experiments alone is costly, especially for structural applications where mechanical allowables must be established for qualification and certification. This work presents a PSP simulation framework for laser powder bed fusion with a focus on uncertainty quantification through probabilistic calibration and multi-fidelity uncertainty propagation. Motivated by phenomenological input parameters related to grain nucleation and growth that are difficult to characterize, a global sensitivity analysis (GSA) is completed. Through GSA, the most important input parameters are identified based on their influence on the statistical distributions of microstructural metrics that influence mechanical behavior, including grain size, morphology, and crystallographic texture. The results provide insight on what experiments are necessary to quantify and control PSP uncertainties, particularly those associated with the more challenging input parameters.

additive manufacturing↗